特朗普的两次访华消息刚刚传出，美国政府便宣布，中国将购买8700万吨大豆，这可能意味着中美关系在明年会迎来重要的进展。 8700万吨大豆背后的中美博弈 11月24日，全球注意到中美关系的气流悄然发生变化，8700万吨这一数字的背后，不仅关乎美国数以百万计的家庭生计，也成为白宫的重要筹码。这个巨大 的采购背后，实际上是两个大国在贸易、外交和地缘政治方面的微妙较量。如果你关注美国中西部的农场，你会发现，政治家的焦虑往往比农民的感受要迟 钝。早在11月20日，大豆市场就出现了异常，14船大豆悄悄卖出，目的地是中国，这一交易是自今年1月以来规模最大的一次。 特朗普的主动示好 11月25日，美国政坛发生了一场耐人寻味的戏剧性事件。媒体纷纷炒作中方主动连线的消息，许多人以为是中国方面先做出示好，符合部分鹰派的预期。 美国财长贝森特专门出来安抚农民，反复强调按计划进行，一方面是安抚焦虑的农场主，另一方面也是为即将确定的未来三年采购计划给总统打预防针。中 方的策略很明确：三年计划，每年2500万吨采购，这不仅是一次交易，更是对未来关系的投资。 在价格上，美国的大豆并没有比巴西更具优势，甚至略高，但这笔交易的意义远超市场逻辑： ...

开幕式上举行了集中签约仪式。湖北农展产业联盟与全国商贸流通行业重点企业现场签 约；10个招商引资项目进行集中签约，签约金额达244.69亿元。 2025湖北农业博览会29日在武汉国际博览中心启幕。近2000家企业、科研院所携万余种 特色农产品组团亮相，为市民呈上味觉与视觉盛宴。 本届农博会由湖北省农业农村厅、湖北省乡村振兴局主办，以"打造新时代鱼米之乡"为 主题，全面展示湖北省打造新时代"鱼米之乡"的新作为、新成果，推动品牌传播，促进产销 衔接，提升消费体验。 湖北省级综合展区系统呈现湖北现代农业的发展成效。 美食展区，10位中国烹饪大师现场联袂演绎"江汉大米"24道风味，洪湖藕汤、潜江小龙 虾、随州香菇宴轮番登场，免费品鉴区人潮涌动，荆楚饮食文化魅力尽显。 据悉，本届农博会将持续至12月2日。其间还将举办地方主题日、品牌推介、产销对接 等20余场活动。 编辑：张靖 本届农博会共设6个展馆、16个展区。 据了解，湖北农业博览会是湖北省级层面举办的农业盛会。本届农博会在6万平方米的 展厅内，共设有6个展馆、16个展区。 市民在湖北农业博览会现场驻足品尝美食。 作为核心展区，湖北省级综合展区系统呈现湖北现代农业的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Hubei Agricultural Expo opened on the 29th in Wuhan International Expo Center, showcasing nearly 2,000 enterprises and research institutions with over 10,000 varieties of specialty agricultural products [1] Group 1 - The opening ceremony featured a centralized signing event [1] - Hubei Agricultural Exhibition Industry Alliance signed agreements with key enterprises in the national commercial circulation industry [1] - A total of 10 investment attraction projects were signed, with a total signing amount of 24.469 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Honghe Yuqi Packaging Materials Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 500,000 RMB, indicating a new player in the packaging materials industry [1] Company Overview - The legal representative of the company is Yang Xianqin [1] - The company is involved in a wide range of activities including the sale of packaging materials and products, packaging services, and agricultural product logistics [1] Business Scope - The company’s business scope includes: - Sales of packaging materials and products - Agricultural product logistics equipment sales - Fresh fruit retail and cultivation - Various agricultural services including production, processing, and transportation [1] - Additional services offered include supply chain management, new membrane materials manufacturing, and various types of material sales such as thermal insulation and corrosion-resistant materials [1] - The company also engages in internet sales, personal internet live streaming services, and various logistics and warehousing services [1]

Core Points - The 18th round of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations between Vietnam and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) took place in Da Nang, Vietnam from November 25 to 28 [1] - The goal of both parties is to make every effort to complete consultations in this round and to adopt necessary flexible measures to ensure a balanced agreement beneficial to both sides [1] - The negotiations are progressing smoothly, with efforts to narrow remaining differences highlighted by the Vietnamese delegation [1] Trade Relations - As of the end of 2024, trade between Vietnam and EFTA is expected to exceed $3.5 billion, maintaining stable growth over the years [1] - Major exports from Vietnam to EFTA member countries include footwear, textiles and garments, machinery and equipment, mobile phones and components, as well as agricultural products like coffee and cashews [1] - In return, Vietnam primarily imports high-tech and high-value-added products from EFTA member countries, such as pharmaceuticals, precision machinery, medical devices, and chemical products [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yinchuan City is launching a series of promotional activities from December 2025 to March 2026 to stimulate winter consumption across various sectors, including commerce, culture, tourism, agriculture, sports, and wine, under the brand "Beautiful Yinchuan" [1] Group 1: Promotional Activities - Yinchuan City has planned 113 promotional activities, utilizing a "government subsidies + enterprise discounts" model, with a total value of consumption vouchers reaching 1.9 billion yuan [3] - The city has partnered with pharmacies to issue 1 million yuan in health consumption vouchers as part of the "Happy Shopping Yinchuan" initiative [3] Group 2: Tourism Initiatives - The "Winter Tour Yinchuan" campaign features over 60 activities across eight sectors, including events like the New Year party at Yuehai Ski Resort and the Ice Peak Festival at Helan Mountain Rock Art Scenic Area [3] - During the Spring Festival, various events such as the "Mountain-Sea New Spring Lantern Festival" and the 11th Qin Opera Art Performance will be held to enhance the holiday experience for residents and tourists [3] - Yinchuan City has allocated over 5 million yuan for tourism subsidies, offering discounts on entrance fees and bundled tickets at attractions like Xixia Tomb [3] Group 3: Sports Events - The "Active Yinchuan" series includes 33 sports events, featuring professional ice and snow competitions as well as community-friendly activities like snow soccer and parent-child obstacle races [3] - Consumers can enjoy discounts on attraction tickets, accommodation, and dining by presenting event tickets during the promotional period [3] Group 4: Agricultural Promotion - The "Smart Selection Yinchuan" initiative aims to promote local agricultural products in various venues, including government offices and tourist attractions, and to showcase them in markets such as Beijing [4] - Key products include high-quality wine, goji berries, lamb, and cool-season vegetables, which are being marketed to reach a national audience [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current dynamics in the soybean market, highlighting the disparity in prices between U.S. and South American soybeans, and the implications of tariffs and trade negotiations on these prices [1][3][19]. Price Disparity - The current post-tax price of U.S. soybeans is approximately 4600 RMB per ton, while South American soybeans are priced at 4000 RMB per ton, resulting in a price difference of 600 RMB per ton [3][5]. - The U.S. soybean price is further impacted by a 13% import tariff compared to a 3% tariff on South American soybeans, creating a significant cost disadvantage for U.S. products [5][7]. Import Volume and Market Impact - Recently, China purchased 160,000 tons of U.S. soybeans, which is a small fraction (less than 1.5%) of its annual import requirement of 110 million tons [7][12]. - The purchase was made by COFCO Group, and despite the small volume, it reflects China's strategic approach to trade negotiations with the U.S. [7][9]. Trade Negotiations and Market Reactions - The soybean purchase is seen as a response to U.S.-China trade talks, indicating a willingness to engage while maintaining control over the volume and timing of purchases [9][10]. - Following the announcement of the purchase, U.S. soybean futures prices fluctuated, demonstrating the sensitivity of the market to Chinese buying activity [10][12]. Future Price Trends - The article suggests that U.S. soybean production may decline due to uncertainty among farmers, while Brazil is expected to increase production, potentially stabilizing overall soybean prices [16][17]. - China's ability to source soybeans from both the U.S. and Brazil allows it to leverage pricing and maintain supply chain security [19][21]. Strategic Implications - The purchase of U.S. soybeans is framed not just as a commodity transaction but as a strategic move to enhance China's bargaining power in trade negotiations [19][21]. - The article emphasizes the importance of mutual benefits in trade, suggesting that further cooperation will depend on the U.S. addressing tariffs and technology restrictions [21].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 28 日 从信念到模型验证：估值与周期双轮驱动 ——大宗商品中观轮动系列（二） | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 邵婉嫕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | 李翔云（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03149627 | lixiangyun@gtht.com | 报告导读： 商品中观轮动的研究初衷，是将"主观+量化"理念有机结合并付诸实践。我们希望尽可能降低策略 中因子、参数及模型的特异性，注重策略的可解释性及可归因性，给出经得起时间验证的模型。我们构建 的月频品种簇中观轮动模型，样本内平均年化收益率 17.79%，夏普比率 1.44，回撤-5.70%，月度胜率 68.98%；样本外 2025 年 1-11 月总收益录得 15.43%，回撤录得 1.09%，月度胜率 70%，仅三个月录得负 收益率。 本篇报告是中观轮动系列的模型搭建部分： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.28」 红枣市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、现货价格2、消费端 3 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场及期股关联 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑枣主力合约价格冲高回落，周度涨幅约0.33%。 行情展望：新疆主产区新季红枣情况，和田、且末、若羌地区收购结束，阿克 苏地区已售8成左右，阿拉尔地区已售6-7成左右，三师采购进度在2成左右，麦 盖提收购进度在3-4成左右，产区价格趋弱运行。据 Mysteel 农产品调研数据统 计，截止2025年11月28日红枣本周36家样本点物理库存在10848吨，较上周增 加518吨，环比增加5.01%，同比增加90.32%，样本点库存增加。在采购主体方面， 企业收购少量中小客商为采购主体，沧州客商是目前市场的主要采购力量，后 续需继续密切关注各产区剩余货源的收购推进情况。短期郑枣期价维持弱势可 能。 未来交易提示： 「 期现市场情况」 本周红枣期货价格走势 图1、郑枣主力合约价格走势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Huimin County government is focusing on fostering new consumption growth through innovative strategies, emphasizing the integration of online and offline channels to enhance consumer experiences and stimulate high-quality development [1][3]. Group 1: New Consumption Growth - The Huimin County Business Bureau aims to stimulate new consumption growth by focusing on "new scenarios, new supply, and new models" [3]. - The strategy includes creating new consumption scenarios that integrate local cultural tourism, sports, and health industries to enhance consumer engagement and value [3]. Group 2: Supply Innovation - The initiative encourages product innovation by attracting and nurturing new business formats and models, particularly in local industries such as rope nets and agricultural products [3]. - Local enterprises are urged to develop more intelligent, green, and healthy consumer goods to provide better and more diverse options from the supply side [3]. Group 3: Online and Offline Integration - The Business Bureau plans to strengthen strategic partnerships with major domestic e-commerce and payment platforms to promote online live streaming sales and offline experience activities [3]. - The goal is to leverage local advantages such as Taobao towns and villages, as well as provincial e-commerce live broadcast bases, to ensure high-quality local products reach consumers through diverse and modern channels, driving continuous new momentum in the consumption market [3].