Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various commodities. Some commodities face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by geopolitical, policy, and seasonal factors. Summary by Commodity - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a volatile state. After the third - quarter peak season, there is pressure for accelerated inventory accumulation. The price center may decline in the medium - term, but short - term options strategies are recommended for risk - hedging [2]. - **Precious Metals**: They are in a weak operation recently due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment. Investors should wait patiently for callback layout positions [3]. - **Copper**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. The market is cautious about economic growth risks. Short - term operations are recommended based on price levels [4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: - **Aluminum**: It shows short - term fluctuations. The inventory peak may be approaching, and the lower support level is around 20,300 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: It is in a weak and volatile state due to supply surplus [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum. There is a possibility that the cross - variety spread with AL will gradually narrow [6]. - **Zinc**: The supply has increased, and demand is weak. The price has fallen for 5 consecutive days. Be vigilant about macro - sentiment fluctuations in the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. - **Lead**: The consumption is not as strong as expected in the peak season, but the cost provides support. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the future [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel has slightly adjusted. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but there are still uncertainties in the market [9]. - **Tin**: The price of London Tin is relatively strong. The decline in Indonesian exports and low overseas inventory support the price [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price is in a volatile state. The market trading is active, and short - term long positions are recommended [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price has fallen. The policy details have not been updated, and there is an opportunity to go long below 50,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is in a downward trend. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Steel Products**: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has fallen. The demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. Pay attention to the production restriction in Tangshan [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is supported by high - level hot metal in the short - term. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The price is in a volatile state. The production restriction expectation of coking plants is rising, and the inventory is decreasing [16]. - **Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron**: The price is in a downward trend. They are affected by the "anti - involution" policy and follow the trend of coking coal [17][18]. - **Shipping Index**: The spot price is declining, and the market is in a bearish atmosphere [19]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East is increasing [20]. - **Asphalt**: The demand is expected to recover in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is stable. The domestic market is under pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [22]. Group 2: Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy, and cost. Different chemicals show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Urea**: The export policy news affects the market. The short - term supply and demand are loose, and the price is affected by market sentiment [23]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term market is weak, and attention should be paid to macro - and market - sentiment changes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price has fallen at night. The fundamentals are improving, and monthly - spread band - trading is recommended [25]. - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern. The cost provides support, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply and demand of these chemicals are generally weak, and the price is under pressure [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, while caustic soda is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term but with limited long - term increase [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The price has fallen at night. The demand for polyester is expected to increase, and the valuation of PX is expected to improve [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has fallen slightly. It is in a short - term low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is recommended to be long - configured in the medium - term. The processing margin of bottle chip is in a low - level fluctuation [31]. - **Glass**: The price has fallen at night. The demand is weak, but the cost increase may prevent it from breaking the previous low [32]. - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the demand is general. The market sentiment is pessimistic [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure in the long - term [34]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as weather, policy, and supply - demand balance. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is in good condition, but there are challenges in the future. The domestic soybean meal price has increased, and the market is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price has fallen. Be cautious about short - term fluctuations and maintain a long - position strategy in the long - term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price is in a weak state. It is expected to have a short - term weak rebound, and attention should be paid to new developments in imports [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price has fallen. The supply has increased through auction, and attention should be paid to weather, policy, and imported soybean performance [38]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn auction has a low success rate. The US corn is in good condition, and the domestic corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Pig**: The short - term spot price has increased slightly, but the medium - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended for industries to hedge at high prices [40]. - **Egg**: The futures price is in an accelerated decline. The high - capacity pressure requires price decline for de - capacity. Attention should be paid to various factors [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has fallen slightly. The domestic cotton price is affected by downstream orders and production expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - **Apple**: The price is in a volatile state. The market focuses on the new - season production estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The price is in a volatile state. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price has fallen. The inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The financial market is affected by geopolitical, policy, and macro - economic factors. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The geopolitical pressure on market risk preference has been relieved. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is difficult to recover significantly in the short - term. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].

Core Insights - In the first seven months of this year, China's trade with other SCO member countries reached 2.11 trillion yuan, marking a 3% increase and setting a historical record for the same period [1] - Exports of industrial robots and agricultural machinery to other SCO member countries grew by 27.1% and 47.8% respectively, while imports of electronic components and agricultural products increased by 12.1% and 6.2% [1] - Since the establishment of the SCO in 2001, trade volume between China and other member countries has surged from 100 billion yuan to 3.65 trillion yuan in 2024, representing an increase of over 30 times [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives specific investment ratings for different agricultural product varieties: - Corn: Oscillating downward [1] - Soybean Meal: Rising [1] - Edible Oils: Rising [1] - Eggs: Oscillating downward [1] - Pork: Oscillating [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn prices are affected by new grain supply pressure and market sentiment, with the 11 - month contract leading the decline and the 1 - month contract potentially rebounding after a sharp drop [1]. - Soybean meal prices are supported by concerns over long - term supply, and the strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in monthly positive spreads [1]. - Edible oils are in a bullish trend, but short - term fluctuations are affected by external market performance and inventory changes. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - Egg prices are currently weak, but there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future, although the peak is likely to be lower than last year [1]. - Pork prices are under supply pressure, but there is a possibility of a low - level rebound with the recovery of demand and the anti - involution trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, corn prices decreased with increased positions. The 11 - month contract led the decline, and the 1 - month contract adjusted accordingly. Northeast corn prices were weak, while North China prices were strong over the weekend. Shandong Shouguang's deep - processing corn purchase price rose to 2490 yuan/ton on August 18, up 40 yuan/ton from last Friday. The market is waiting for new grain, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fell due to profit - taking, but the reduced autumn harvest forecast provided support. US soybean meal rose, and domestic protein meal was strong during the day but fell at night. The import cost was slightly stronger, and the strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in monthly positive spreads [1]. - **Edible Oils**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil closed lower due to profit - taking and weak crude oil. Domestic edible oils were strong during the day but fell at night, led by palm oil. The inventory of the three major domestic vegetable oils increased by 0.98 tons compared to last week. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: On Monday, egg futures continued to weaken. The main 2510 contract fell 2.17% to 3113 yuan/500 kg, and the near - month 2509 contract fell 2.7%. The spot price increased slightly. Terminal consumption was stable, and there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future [1]. - **Pork**: On Monday, the main 2511 contract of pork futures weakened in the afternoon, closing down 0.9% at 13820 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased slightly. Supply pressure persists, but there is a possibility of a low - level rebound with demand recovery [2]. Market Information - Brazil's competition management agency CADE plans to investigate the signatories of the "Soybean Moratorium Plan," and the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) will appeal [2]. - ProFarmer's crop inspection shows that the expected corn yield per acre in Ohio in 2025 is 185.69 bushels, and in South Dakota is 174.18 bushels. The expected average number of soybean pods in Ohio is 1287.28, and in South Dakota is 1188.45 [3]. - The average soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills reached 64.64% as of August 16, an increase of 2.08% from last week. The total soybean crushing volume was 241.68 tons, an increase of 7.79 tons from last week. The expected processing volume this week is 247 tons, with a crushing rate of 66.07% [4]. - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from August 11 - 15 was 392.46 reais/ton, slightly lower than the previous week. The soybean meal price was 1525.17 reais/ton, and the soybean oil price was 6166.27 reais/ton [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pork [6][7][11][15] - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pork [14][17][19][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures are expected to experience a downward oscillatory adjustment, seeking support at 4,500 ringgit. Domestic palm oil futures may continue to strengthen towards the 9,800 - 10,000 yuan range [1]. - CBOT soybean oil is showing a回调 trend due to the end of the fuel demand peak season in the US and geopolitical factors. However, domestic soybean oil market basis quotes are supported by potential downstream demand [1]. Sugar - Raw sugar is likely to face resistance at 17 cents per pound. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillatory and slightly weak, with attention on the pressure around 5,700 [3]. Cotton - Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, while facing pressure after the new cotton is listed due to expected stable - to - increasing production [4]. Pigs - Spot pig prices have stabilized, but future prices are still not optimistic due to expected increased supply. For far - month contracts, short - selling is not recommended, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [5]. Corn - The corn market is expected to remain oscillatory and weak due to increased supply expectations. In the medium term, the futures price may move towards the new - season cost [7]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to maintain a bearish trend due to sufficient supply and average downstream digestion speed [12]. Meal - The bottom range of meal has shifted upwards, with an overall upward trend. It is advisable to choose the right time to go long [15]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, soybean oil spot price in Jiangsu was 8,830 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; palm oil spot price in Guangdong was 9,710 yuan, up 140 yuan from August 18; rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu was 10,030 yuan, unchanged [1]. - **Spreads and Inventory**: The soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread showed different changes. The inventory of soybean oil and palm oil in China had different trends [1]. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, domestic sugar futures prices declined slightly, while spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The import cost of Brazilian sugar decreased [3]. - **Industry Data**: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and industrial inventory decreased [3]. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, domestic cotton futures prices declined slightly, and spot prices showed minor changes. The basis between spot and futures had different fluctuations [4]. - **Industry Data**: Commercial and industrial inventories decreased, and the import volume increased. The inventory days of yarn and grey cloth decreased [4]. Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, futures prices of live pigs increased slightly, and spot prices in different regions showed different changes [5]. - **Industry Data**: The slaughter volume decreased slightly, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased [5]. Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, corn futures prices declined slightly, and spot prices remained stable. The basis increased [7]. - **Industry Data**: Corn starch futures prices declined, and the inventory of corn decreased [7]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, egg futures prices declined, and the egg - to - feed ratio decreased. The basis increased [11]. - **Industry Data**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings and the price of culled chickens decreased [11]. Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices remained unchanged. The basis of some contracts decreased [15]. - **Industry Data**: The inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal continued to rise [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that CBOT soybean oil futures are experiencing a downward trend, with the current price at 51.56 cents per pound, reflecting a decrease of 0.54% [1] - On August 19, the opening price for soybean oil futures was 52.99 cents per pound, with a closing price of 51.77 cents per pound, marking a decline of 2.93% [2] - The trading volume for national first-grade soybean oil reached 30,700 tons on August 19, which is an increase of 166.96% compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 2 - Argentine soybean oil prices for September shipment increased by $25 per ton to $1,164, while November shipment prices rose by $33 per ton to $1,154 [2] - As of August 19, the national soybean oil port inventory stood at 1.099 million tons, up from 1.068 million tons the previous week, indicating an increase of 31,000 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures are expected to adjust downward in a volatile manner, seeking support at 4,500 ringgit. Domestic palm oil futures may strengthen further towards the 9,800 - 10,000 yuan range. CBOT soybean oil is showing a回调 trend, and domestic soybean oil market is supported by downstream demand [1]. 2.2 Sugar - Raw sugar is expected to be difficult to fall sharply in the short - term, with attention on the 17 cents/pound resistance level. Zheng sugar is expected to remain volatile and weak, with attention on the 5,700 resistance [3]. 2.3 Cotton - Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate in a range, while prices may face pressure after the new cotton is listed [4]. 2.4 Pork - Spot pork prices have stabilized, but future prices are still not optimistic. For far - month contracts, short - selling is not recommended, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [5]. 2.5 Corn - Corn futures are expected to remain volatile and weak in the short - term. In the medium - term, the futures price may move down towards the new - season cost [7]. 2.6 Eggs - Egg prices are expected to maintain a bearish trend due to sufficient supply and average downstream digestion [12]. 2.7 Meal - Meal prices have an upward trend overall, and long - term long positions can be considered at low prices [15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, soybean oil futures had little change, palm oil futures rose, and rapeseed oil futures were stable. Spot prices of palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.46% [1]. - **Spreads and Profits**: The basis of soybean oil and palm oil changed, and the import profit of palm oil in Guangzhou Port in January decreased [1]. 3.2 Sugar - **Futures and Spot Markets**: On August 19, sugar futures prices declined slightly, and spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis of Nanning and Kunming increased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and industrial inventory decreased [3]. 3.3 Cotton - **Futures and Spot Markets**: On August 19, cotton futures prices decreased slightly, and the spot price of CC Index: 3128B increased slightly [4]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased, and industrial inventory increased. Import volume increased, and textile exports showed mixed performance [4]. 3.4 Pork - **Futures and Spot Markets**: On August 19, futures prices of live pigs increased slightly, and spot prices in some regions increased [5]. - **Industry Situation**: Slaughter volume decreased slightly, and self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased [5]. 3.5 Corn - **Futures and Spot Markets**: On August 19, corn futures prices decreased slightly, and the basis increased. Corn starch futures prices decreased, and the basis increased [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased slightly, and the import profit decreased slightly [7]. 3.6 Eggs - **Futures and Spot Markets**: On August 19, egg futures prices decreased, and the basis increased. Egg - laying chicken chick prices and culled - hen prices decreased [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The egg - to - feed ratio and breeding profit decreased [11]. 3.7 Meal - **Futures and Spot Markets**: On August 19, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures prices increased slightly, and the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased [15]. - **Industry Situation**: The domestic inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is rising, and the supply is abundant [15].

Core Viewpoint - The event on August 21 in Foshan aims to promote high-quality agricultural products from Qiandongnan Prefecture, particularly blueberries and passion fruits, enhancing the brand effect of "Qian goods" and facilitating market access to the Greater Bay Area [8][10][21]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Qian goods" promotion event will take place in Foshan, focusing on the introduction of blueberries and passion fruits from Qiandongnan [8][9]. - The event is part of the "Foshan-Qiandongnan cooperation" initiative, which has been developing since 2021, fostering a strong support relationship between the two regions [15][17]. - The event will feature various activities including product showcases, sales agreements, and joint promotions to expand the market presence of "Qian goods" [9][10][22]. Group 2: Featured Products - Blueberries from Qiandongnan are highlighted as an "ecological business card," with the region being a major production area in China, known for their sweet and aromatic flavor [20][26][30]. - Passion fruits are also emphasized for their nutritional benefits, being rich in Vitamin C and dietary fiber, with local producers focusing on high-quality fruit products [36][39][43]. - The event will showcase a variety of local products including organic blueberry puree, golden passion fruits, and traditional handicrafts [49][50]. Group 3: Marketing and Promotion Strategies - The event will utilize live streaming on Douyin (TikTok) to reach a broader audience, featuring popular influencers to enhance product visibility and sales [62][63]. - The theme of the event, "Passion Fruit Joy in Lingnan, Blueberry Condensation of Mountains and Seas," aims to promote the transition of agricultural products from rural areas to urban markets [44][22]. - Interactive experiences such as tasting sessions and product displays will be organized to engage attendees and promote local specialties [11][48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the soybean/meal market, it is in a state of mixed long - and short - term factors. The cost of soybean imports is showing a stable and slightly rising trend, while the domestic meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to profit margins, supply pressure, and new supply - side drivers [3][5]. - For the palm oil market, the price is expected to remain above 4300 ringgit. The market is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy, low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the upside is limited by factors like annual - level production increase expectations and uncertain RVO rules. It is expected to be volatile and bullish [6][9]. - For the sugar market, the probability of a significant rebound in raw sugar prices is low due to increased production in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere. Domestically, with increasing imports and high import profits, Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [11][12]. - For the cotton market, the USDA report and the suspension of tariffs are positive factors, but weak downstream consumption and slow de - stocking may cause short - term prices to remain in a high - level oscillation [14][15]. - For the egg market, large supply leads to weaker - than - expected prices in the peak season. The short - term market may fluctuate, and in the medium - term, selling opportunities after rebounds should be focused on [17][19]. - For the pig market, the spot price has temporarily stabilized, and the market is expected to enter a range - bound oscillation. In the short - term, low - price buying is recommended, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [21][22]. 3. Summary by Categories Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Tuesday night, US soybeans declined. Some regions had higher - than - expected soybean yields, and Brazilian premiums slightly decreased, leading to a drop in soybean import costs. Domestic meal spot basis was stable, with weak trading and good pick - up. Last week, 2.339 million tons of soybeans were crushed, and this week, 2.4043 million tons are expected. The US soybean - growing area is expected to have less rainfall in the next two weeks, and the USDA has significantly reduced the planting area, with a 1.08 - million - ton decrease in US soybean production [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the stable and slightly rising trend of soybean import costs and the seasonal supply surplus in the domestic meal market, it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to profit margins, supply pressure, and new supply - side drivers [5]. Palm Oil - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month, and the 1 - 15 - day exports are expected to increase by 16.5% - 21.3%. From August 1 - 15, production increased by 0.88%, with a 1.78% decrease in yield per unit and a 0.51% increase in oil extraction rate compared to the same period last month. The MPOC expects palm oil prices to remain above 4300 ringgit. On Tuesday night, domestic oils declined due to the overall commodity market sentiment [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is supported by multiple factors but has upside limitations. It is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. The closing price of the January contract was 5661 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.19%. Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. In July, the average sugarcane yield in southern Brazil decreased by 5.6% year - on - year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The probability of a significant rebound in raw sugar prices is low, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated. The closing price of the January contract was 14100 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The spot price remained unchanged, and the US cotton good - quality rate as of August 17 was 55%, up 2 percentage points from the previous week and 13 percentage points year - on - year [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices may remain in a high - level oscillation due to positive and negative factors [15]. Egg - **Important Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with some slight declines. The average price in the main production areas was 3.21 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and demand was weak, so egg prices may be stable or decline [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term market may fluctuate, and in the medium - term, selling opportunities after rebounds should be focused on [19]. Pig - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price was half - stable and half - rising. The average price in Henan increased by 0.09 yuan to 13.77 yuan/kg, while that in Sichuan remained at 13.47 yuan/kg. Northern price increases may drive up prices in some regions, while central regions may remain stable [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is expected to enter a range - bound oscillation. In the short - term, low - price buying is recommended, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [22].

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1] - The manufacturing PMI in July 2025 was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI business activity index in July 2025 was 50.1%, slightly down from 50.5% in the previous month but similar to the same period last year [1] - Social financing scale increment in July 2025 was not provided, with the previous month at 1132 billion yuan and the same period last year at 770.7 billion yuan [1] - The year-on-year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in July 2025 were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively. M1 and M2 growth rates increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - Financial institution RMB loans had a net decrease of 5 billion yuan in July 2025, compared to an increase of 224 billion yuan in the previous month and 26 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - CPI in July 2025 was flat year-on-year, down from 0.1% in the previous month and 0.5% in the same period last year [1] - PPI in July 2025 was -3.6% year-on-year, the same as the previous month but lower than -0.8% in the same period last year [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative growth rate in July 2025 was 1.6% year-on-year, down from 2.8% in the previous month and 3.6% in the same period last year [1] - The cumulative growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in July 2025 was 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.0% in the previous month but higher than 3.5% in the same period last year [1] - Export and import values in July 2025 increased by 7.2% and 4.1% year-on-year respectively, both higher than the previous month [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - From January to July 2025, stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a 20.7% year-on-year increase. Securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a 62.5% increase. In July alone, it was 15.1 billion yuan, a 125% increase from July 2024 [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is promoting the research and development of innovative products like the BPI index futures and the opening up of polyester sector products [2] - Futures prices of many products such as cotton and urea have become important references for national macro - policy making. Many enterprises in different industries use the futures market to manage risks [2] - China's futures market has improved its internationalization level. As of July 2025, there were 24 specific open - ended futures varieties, and some futures companies have achieved 100% foreign ownership [3] - The London Metal Exchange's Hong Kong delivery warehouse was inaugurated, which is significant for Hong Kong's development as an international financial center and for promoting RMB use in commodity trading [3][4] Metals - The Chinese Foreign Ministry was unaware of reports about lifting rare - earth export controls to India [5] - Gold has had low volatility since June 2025. Global gold ETFs added 397 tons in the first half of the year. Gold prices may be supported by an over 80% probability of a September interest - rate cut [5] - The world's largest silver ETF reduced its holdings by 16.95 tons [5] - The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate [5] - UBS expects global gold demand to reach a new high since 2011 and forecasts gold prices to reach $3600 by the end of March 2026 and $3700 by the end of June and September 2026 [6] - On August 18, lead inventory reached a new high in over a month, while zinc, tin, nickel, copper, and aluminum inventories decreased [6] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Shandong plans to raise coke prices, with different increases for different types of coke starting from August 19 [8] - Mexico proposes to restore the North American Steel Committee to improve trade relations with the US and reduce Asian steel imports [8] Energy and Chemicals - On August 19, US crude oil futures fell 1.12%. The decline was affected by the expected US - Russia - Ukraine talks, weak demand from India, and increasing supply pressure [9] - Six government departments held a photovoltaic industry symposium to regulate the industry's competition order [9] - US API crude oil inventory decreased by 24.17 million barrels in the week ending August 15 [9][10] - India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased in July, and state - owned refineries will seek alternative sources in August and September [10] Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized efforts to ensure a good autumn harvest, regulate the agricultural product market, promote farmers' income, and prevent risks [12] - The Ministry of Agriculture organized a meeting on preventing and controlling major pests and diseases in autumn crops [12] - New York Arabica coffee futures reached a two - month high due to concerns about Brazil's coffee production [12] - US exporters sold 228,606 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [13] - Corn yields in Nebraska, US, are expected to be lower than in 2024 [14] - Indonesia opened its market to Brazilian beef and offal [14] - India will exempt cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30 [14] 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On August 19, the central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan after 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [15] Key News - In July 2025, national general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The cumulative revenue in the first seven months increased by 0.1% year - on - year [16] - Government - funded budget expenditures increased by 31.7% in the first seven months due to the expenditure of 2.89 trillion yuan from special bonds and special treasury bonds [16] - Some provinces' audit reports pointed out problems in the use and management of special bonds, including data inaccuracies, project delays, and misappropriation [17] - From September 1, three new conditions for withdrawing personal pensions were added [17] - The central bank increased the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan to support disaster - affected areas [18] - Guangdong plans to issue 2.5 billion yuan of offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau in late August [19] - The second batch of science and technology innovation bond ETFs is about to be submitted, with 14 fund companies involved [19] - There were uncertainties in the principal and interest payment of some bonds, and some companies faced major events such as being presented with a winding - up petition [19] - International credit rating agencies made ratings and outlook adjustments for some countries and companies [19] Bond Market Summary - Bond prices stabilized due to the stock market decline and the central bank's reverse repurchase operations. Most yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds decreased, and treasury bond futures rose [20] - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell [20] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.16%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 0.37% [20][21] - Most money - market interest rates increased on August 19 [21] - Shibor short - term rates mostly increased [21] - The winning yields of some agricultural and national development bank financial bonds were announced, along with their subscription multiples [22] - Most inter - bank and silver - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds increased [22] - Most European and US bond yields decreased [23] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1820 on August 20, down 28 points from the previous day. The central parity rate was 7.1359, down 37 points [25] - The US dollar index rose 0.12% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [25] Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed Income believes that from May, the bond market has been driven by asset allocation. In August - October, the bond market may face pressure from capital diversion and crowded trading structures [26] - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the bond market should focus on defense. Insurance funds may start to accept 10 - year treasury bonds at a yield of 1.8%, while trading funds should wait for opportunities [26] - Yangtze River Fixed Income expects that the central bank's mention of preventing capital idling will not lead to a tightening of the capital market. Liquidity will remain reasonably abundant [26] - CITIC Securities reports that the bank wealth - management scale exceeded 32.67 trillion yuan in late July, and it is expected to reach over 33.5 trillion yuan this year [27] - Shenwan Fixed Income expects local bond issuance and net financing to increase significantly in the next period [27][28] - Xingzheng Fixed Income points out that bond ETFs may face redemption and selling pressure during market adjustments. Investors can choose more resilient ETFs and take advantage of price discounts [28] - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that the central bank may restart open - market treasury bond trading in the fourth quarter when the 10 - year treasury bond yield is in a certain range [28] - CICC Research Report states that the market's pricing of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, but the Fed will be cautious due to the risk of "stagflation - like" conditions [29] Today's Bond Market Reminders - On August 20, 142 bonds were listed, 171 bonds were issued, 117 bonds were due for payment, and 112 bonds were due for principal and interest repayment [30][31] 4. Stock Market News - On August 20, the A - share market had a narrow - range shock, with the three major indices falling and the North Exchange 50 hitting a new high. Consumer electronics, CPO, and liquor sectors led the gains [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.21%. Oriental甄选's stock price fluctuated greatly. South - bound funds had a large net purchase [32] - Brokers are competing for customers by offering low commission rates [32] - As of August 18, the margin trading balance exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, reaching a 10 - year high [33] - Foreign institutions are increasing their positions in Chinese stocks. Many foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese stock market [34] - As of August 19, social security funds appeared in the top ten tradable shareholders of 89 stocks, with 20 new heavy - position stocks [34] - As of August 19, 666 A - share companies released their semi - annual reports, and over 60% achieved year - on - year profit growth [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil is mainly driven by macro factors and is undergoing a correction; soybean oil lacks driving force from US soybeans and is also in a correction phase [1] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects Malaysian palm oil prices to remain above 4,300 ringgit, supported by biodiesel demand, tightening soybean oil supply, and a slowdown in palm oil supply growth [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was up 0.57%, and night - session down 1.06%; soybean oil's day - session rose 0.07%, and night - session fell 1.99%; rapeseed oil's day - session rose 0.47%, and night - session fell 1.32%. The Malaysian palm oil futures fell 0.07% in the day - session and 1.00% in the night - session, and CBOT soybean oil futures fell 2.78% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 145,401 hands, and open interest by 25,027 hands; soybean oil's trading volume decreased by 63,139 hands, and open interest by 35,479 hands; rapeseed oil's trading volume decreased by 15,682 hands, and open interest by 3,935 hands [1] - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 140 yuan/ton, while the spot prices of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi remained unchanged [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes, such as the basis of palm oil in Guangdong being 122 yuan/ton, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures changing from 242 to 210 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects Malaysian palm oil prices to stay above 4,300 ringgit due to biodiesel demand, tight soybean oil supply, and slow palm oil supply growth [2] - As of August 17, EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 1.74 million tons (compared to 1.86 million tons last year), rapeseed imports were 0.33 million tons (compared to 0.57 million tons last year), and palm oil imports were 0.29 million tons (compared to 0.5 million tons last year) [4] - Brazil's estimated soybean exports in August are 8.9 million tons (previously 8.8 million tons), soybean meal exports are 2.33 million tons (previously 2.27 million tons), and corn exports are 8.05 million tons (previously 7.97 million tons) [4] - ProFarmer's crop survey estimates that in 2025, Ohio's corn yield will be 185.69 bushels per acre (compared to 183.29 bushels per acre in 2024), South Dakota's corn yield will be 174.18 bushels per acre (compared to 156.51 bushels per acre in 2024), Ohio's average soybean pod number will be 1,287.28 (compared to 1,229.93 in 2024), and South Dakota's average soybean pod number will be 1,188.45 (compared to 1,025.89 in 2024) [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [6]