伊朗对伊拉克天然气出口中断 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 乌克兰武装部队总参谋部12月25表示，乌军使用\"风暴阴影\"导弹袭击了俄罗斯罗斯托夫州的新沙赫廷斯克炼 油厂，引发多处爆炸。总参谋部在Telegram平台上发布的声明中指出，该炼油厂是俄罗斯南部最大的石油产品供应 商之一，并参与对俄军部队的燃料供应。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，俄罗斯年产1亿吨液化天然气的计划因制裁推迟数年，但工厂建设仍在继续。"西伯 利亚力量2号"管道供气商业协议签署准备工作已进入最后阶段。俄罗斯国内石油产品市场目前已完全平衡，我们 已补足高需求期消耗的石油产品库存，目前存量甚至高于去年同期。全球石油市场保持平衡，欧佩克+机制在双向 调节产量方面行之有效。我们将继续在欧佩克+框架内开展工作。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 当地时间25日，伊拉克电力部表示，目前伊拉克全国发电量约为1.7万兆瓦，由于伊朗天然气供应中断，伊拉 克损失了约4500兆瓦的发电能力。伊拉克电力部称，伊朗方面天然气停供原因包括技术问题及冬季寒冷天气导致 伊朗国内能源需求增加等。据悉，伊朗对伊拉克首都巴格达及中部地区的天然气供应此前 ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Q3 2025 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of +4.3%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +3.3% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of +3.5% [1][7] - The strong consumer spending and reduced inventory drag were the main contributors to this growth, with inventory changes being the largest marginal contributor to the acceleration in GDP growth [1][7] - Despite the strong GDP data, the market's initial reaction suggested overheating, leading to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations, which later reversed as asset prices adjusted [1][8] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates a significant cooling in Q4 2025 GDP growth due to government shutdown impacts, with short-term interest rate cut expectations depending on upcoming employment and inflation data [1][8] Fixed Income - The report notes that during the week of December 15-19, 2025, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose slightly from 1.8425% to 1.835% [2][9] - It emphasizes that the bond market's response to economic data has been muted, reflecting a focus on policy expectations rather than fundamental economic performance [9] - The report suggests that while there is limited immediate need for significant liquidity release through reserve requirement cuts, the possibility of easing policies in early 2026 remains [11] Industry Insights - Jiufeng Energy is focusing on expanding its commercial aerospace special gas market share through the development of its launch site and partnerships with rocket companies [19][20] - The company has completed the first phase of its Hainan commercial aerospace launch site project, with core products undergoing multiple launch validations, indicating a strong operational track record [19][20] - Jiufeng Energy's profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 1.56 billion, 1.80 billion, and 2.13 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.0, 15.6, and 13.2 [19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Traditional energy: The slowdown in crude oil supply growth may help prices bottom out; tight thermal coal supply is expected to push up coal price levels; LNG supply growth acceleration is exerting downward pressure on global gas price levels [2][3]. - Carbon market: In 2026, China's carbon market is expected to return to a supply - tight state, and carbon prices may rise with fluctuations; European carbon prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the central level possibly slightly declining following natural gas prices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Supply: The supply growth rate has slowed, with geopolitical issues posing risks. OPEC+ continues to increase production but at a slower pace, halting production increases in Q1 2026; US production has entered a plateau phase and may face production cuts later. Non - US and non - OPEC+ supply increase expectations have also decreased. Overall supply remains loose, but the oversupply pressure has eased, and sanctioned countries' supply may decline periodically [9]. - Demand: Global oil demand growth continues to slow. Developed countries and China's oil demand have entered a plateau phase. Terminal demand lacks highlights, but structural contradictions in overseas refined oil markets and inventory replenishment in some regions support demand [10]. - Price: In a weak supply - demand scenario, the oil price center in 2026 may experience volatile bottom - building. The oversupply pressure will be relatively higher in H1, and the price may be lower in H1 and higher in H2 [11]. 3.2 Coal - Market situation: Since 2021, the coal market has been affected by multiple factors. Coal prices bottomed out in H1 2025, with clear cost support. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are likely to move within a range due to peaking coal demand during the energy transition [15]. - Supply control: To adapt to future coal demand changes and ensure energy security, coal supply needs to be controlled through stable production, safety supervision, and environmental monitoring [16]. - Demand: Coal demand remains resilient. New electricity demand, extreme weather, and the role of thermal power in the power system, as well as coal's use in the chemical industry, contribute to this resilience. Coal demand may peak between 2025 - 2027 and then enter a consumption plateau [17]. - Price: In 2026, coal supply has limited upward elasticity, and demand is moderately resilient. The fundamentals will shift from loose to balanced, with the price center potentially moving up to Rmb700 - 900 per tonne. Key factors include policy evolution and energy transition progress, and price dynamics are affected by unusual weather, speculative demand, market sentiment, and policy changes [18]. 3.3 Natural Gas 3.3.1 LNG - 2025 situation: Global supply growth exceeded 4%, but demand growth was less than 3%. By mid - Nov 2025, new production capacity added 42mn t, with a full - year expectation of over 46mn t. The actual supply increase exceeded 18mn t, with a growth rate over 4%, while the trade volume increase for the first ten months was only 9mn t, with a growth rate less than 3%. This led to a price trend of being higher in H1 and lower in H2 [22]. - 2026 outlook: The supply growth rate is expected to exceed 10%, while demand growth will be significantly lower. Capacity utilization will decline, and gas prices will face sustained pressure. Global production capacity is forecast to accelerate to over 60mn t, with actual supply increases potentially exceeding 40mn t, a growth rate of nearly 10%. The incremental output will mainly come from the US, Mexico, Qatar, and Nigeria. The global LNG trade growth rate in 2026 may be 3 - 4% or below 7% [23]. 3.3.2 Regional Market - Europe: The natural gas supply tends to ease due to global LNG capacity addition. Although Russian gas imports face uncertainty, the global supply increase can cover potential gaps. Residential and commercial gas usage will remain stable, and industrial gas consumption may slightly recover but is limited by energy transition. The gas price center faces downward pressure, and inventory replenishment pace is a key variable for seasonal prices [28]. - US: The market maintains a tight balance. Supply growth is expected to slow down, with some regions still having production potential, but associated gas production growth may decline. Domestic commercial and residential gas consumption may weaken, while industrial and power - sector demand are resilient. Exports will continue to grow strongly. The market is expected to continue inventory drawdown, with the price center staying at relatively high levels and regional structural contradictions becoming more pronounced [29]. 3.4 Carbon 3.4.1 Chinese Market - CEA: In 2026, the "tightening constraint" on quota carryovers in the national carbon market will disappear, and the market may return to the "reluctance to sell" logic. The net surplus of quotas will further decrease, and new demand from three new sectors may lead to carbon prices rising with fluctuations [31][32][33]. - CCER: The national CCER market is accelerating its "expansion". By Nov 6, 2025, 13 projects have completed emission reduction registration, with an initial volume of approximately 15.0428mt, and 11 projects are expected to complete registration in the next 6 months, adding about 7.5276mt of CCERs. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released more methodologies, and more may be issued in the future [34][35][38]. 3.4.2 European Market - EUA: European carbon prices will fluctuate within a range, with the central level potentially following natural gas prices to a slight downward adjustment. In 2026, natural gas supply will be more relaxed, and demand will be moderate. In the long - term, as the EU reduces the cap on allowances, carbon prices are likely to have a floor support [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's weekly oil prices closed lower. Trump's order to "block" Venezuelan oil tankers and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela had limited impact on crude oil supply and demand. Global supply and demand remained weak, and the market was in a state of oversupply. In the first quarter, the oversupply was significant, and it was advisable to short - sell the calendar spread and absolute prices [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily News - Iran's natural gas supply interruption caused Iraq to lose about 4500 megawatts of power - generating capacity due to technical issues and increased domestic energy demand in Iran during winter [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky had a phone call with US envoy Witkoff and Trump's senior advisor Kushner, and the Ukrainian military attacked a Russian refinery with "Storm Shadow" missiles [4] - The early - batch crude oil quota for 2026 was issued with a year - on - year increase, and the expectation of fuel oil feedstock weakened. The market was worried about Venezuelan fuel oil supply due to US sanctions, and the short - term sentiment was dominant [4] 3.2 Inventory - US API crude oil inventory in the week ending December 19 was 239.1 million barrels, with a previous value of - 932.2 million barrels; API refined oil inventory was 68.5 million barrels, with a previous value of 251.1 million barrels; API gasoline inventory was 109 million barrels, with a previous value of 483.5 million barrels [4] - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 127.4 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.3% [4] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 24.9 million barrels to 412.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1 million barrels to 1384.3 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 2052.1 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.82% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, US crude oil exports increased by 65.5 million barrels per day to 466.4 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves last week was 652.5 million barrels per day, a decrease of 6.4 million barrels per day compared with the previous week [5] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week's weekly oil prices closed lower. Trump's order to "block" Venezuelan oil tankers led to an oil price rebound, and geopolitical events such as the Venezuela situation and the Russia - Ukraine conflict continued to occur [5] - Global supply and demand remained weak, and the market was in a state of oversupply. The oil market de - stocked this week, and on Friday, the calendar spreads of the three major crude oil markets rebounded slightly, while the crack spreads of global gasoline and diesel continued to weaken [5] - The US refinery operating rate was at a high level, and the domestic operating rate fluctuated. The oversupply in the fundamentals was confirmed, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela had limited impact on crude oil supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the Israel - Iran situation [5] - In the first quarter, the oversupply was significant, and it was advisable to short - sell the calendar spread and absolute prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Ukraine and Russia, have influenced oil prices, with domestic SC crude oil rising by 2.2 yuan per barrel, approximately 0.5% [3][15]. Market Analysis - Domestic SC crude oil experienced a price increase, with a notable rise in high-sulfur fuel oil, which surged over 2% [3][15]. - The market reacted to news of Ukraine's missile strike on a major Russian oil facility, which is significant for fuel supply to Russian military forces [3][15]. - Despite the geopolitical tensions, Russian officials claim that they have replenished oil product inventories, which are reportedly higher than the previous year [3][15]. Geopolitical Context - Both China and Russia condemned the U.S. blockade against Venezuela, with Russia labeling it as a revival of "pirate behavior" [5][18]. - The geopolitical landscape continues to support oil prices, although the overall sentiment in the commodity market is optimistic, with a recent eight-day rise in the domestic commodity index [5][16]. - The oil market is expected to face resistance due to oversupply, with predictions of a sideways movement in oil prices for the remainder of the year [5][16]. Russian Energy Sector Developments - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister confirmed that Western sanctions have delayed the country's goal of producing 100 million tons of LNG by several years, indicating a significant setback in its LNG expansion strategy [6][17]. - Despite challenges in LNG projects, Russia is advancing its pipeline projects, particularly the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline, highlighting its commitment to diversifying export routes [6][17]. - The Russian oil product market is reportedly balanced, with current inventories exceeding those of the previous year, suggesting resilience in its refining and supply chain amid sanctions [6][17]. U.S. Military and Economic Strategy - The White House has directed U.S. military focus towards enforcing sanctions on Venezuelan oil for at least the next two months, indicating a strategic shift towards economic pressure rather than immediate military action [8][19].

Industry Updates - The National Energy Administration reported that from January to November, the national electricity market transaction volume exceeded 6 trillion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. This accounted for 63.7% of the total electricity consumption, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. Intra-provincial transactions reached 4.583 trillion kilowatt-hours, a 6.3% increase, while inter-provincial transactions were 1.447 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 12.1% [2] - The first climate resource economic blue book was released, emphasizing the transformation of climate resources into goods and services through policies, market mechanisms, and technological innovation. This aims to create economic value and promote sustainable use of climate resources, which is significant for food security, industrial upgrading, and improving people's well-being [2] - The Zhejiang Tiantai Pumped Storage Power Station, the largest single-unit capacity pumped storage power station in China, has successfully connected its first unit to the grid. The project has a total investment of over 10 billion yuan and a total installed capacity of 1.7 million kilowatts [3] - The Tarim Oilfield's Bozi-Dabei gas field, China's largest ultra-deep condensate gas field, has achieved an annual gas production of over 10 billion cubic meters, significantly enhancing natural gas supply capabilities and ensuring national energy security [3] - Yunnan Province is promoting the integration of "artificial intelligence + wind-solar-water-storage" to optimize energy construction and scheduling, enhancing the management of renewable energy resources [4] - Guangdong Province is advancing the research and listing of futures products such as lithium hydroxide, aiming to develop a comprehensive system for new energy products and support the growth of strategic emerging industries [4] Corporate Developments - The State Grid Corporation of China is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan in fixed asset investment for the year, setting a historical record. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the total investment is projected to exceed 2.85 trillion yuan, accelerating the construction of a new power system [7] - China Huadian's installed capacity of renewable energy has surpassed 100 million kilowatts, with several projects including wind and solar power successfully connected to the grid [7]

当地时间25日，伊拉克电力部表示，目前伊拉克全国发电量约为1.7万兆瓦，由于伊朗天然气供应中 断，伊拉克损失了约4500兆瓦的发电能力。伊拉克电力部称，伊朗方面天然气停供原因包括技术问题及 冬季寒冷天气导致伊朗国内能源需求增加等。 据悉，伊朗对伊拉克首都巴格达及中部地区的天然气供应此前就已停止，伊朗对伊拉克南部地区的天然 气输送也已受限。 （文章来源：央视新闻客户端） ...

Group 1 - The Russian government has developed a plan to respond to potential confiscation of Russian overseas assets by the West, which will be implemented if necessary [1] - A presidential decree has been issued allowing reciprocal responses based on court rulings in the event of asset confiscation [1] - The Russian economy is projected to grow at a rate of 1% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026, and 2.7% in 2027, aligning with global average growth rates [1] Group 2 - Russian oil production is expected to remain stable at approximately 516 million tons in 2025, with a projected increase of 2% to 525 million tons in 2026 [1] - Russia aims to develop liquefied natural gas production, targeting a production level of 100 million tons by 2030 [1] - Trade relations are being shifted towards rapidly developing countries, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, Africa, and Latin America, with trade volumes in the Asia-Pacific region increasing several times over the past three years [2]

证券日报网讯 12月25日，新天然气发布公告称，中审众环作为公司2025年度财务报表和内部控制的审 计机构，原指派罗楠、李茜作为签字注册会计师为公司提供审计服务。因原项目签字会计师李茜工作调 整，根据中审众环执业质量控制制度相关规定不再担任公司2025年度审计项目签字会计师，中审众环指 派罗楠、徐小哲负责公司2025年度财务报表及内部控制审计。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

格隆汇12月25日｜乌克兰方面表示，其无人机袭击了位于俄罗斯奥伦堡地区的最大天然气处理厂，该厂 同时处理来自哈萨克斯坦卡拉恰甘纳克油气田的天然气。奥伦堡地区州长叶夫根尼·索恩采夫在 Telegram上发布消息称，无人机曾试图袭击该地区一处工业设施（未具体说明名称），相关基础设施受 到轻微损坏。 ...