A股复盘 | 缅癌 / 2025.04.23 肿么回事，兄弟姐妹萌，当我早上看到贝森特、懂王的一系列操作，我心想今天 稳了！！冲锋！ 结果，我的A股啊！怎么就高开低走了？沪指最后怎么绿了？ 从媒体报道时间来看，先是贝森特在一场私人会议上表态，说中美局势会缓和。 贝森特说，美国对中国商品征收145%的关税，中国对美国商品征收125%的关 税，这种现状是不可持续的，并称"不久的将来"将出现降级，将让市场"松一口 气"。 紧接着，白宫新闻秘书表示，特朗普正在为与中国达成贸易协议奠定基础，与中 国的关系正在朝着正确的方向推进。 啧啧啧，感觉跟之前彭博的报道相一致，中方要看到尊重人的态度才能进行下一 步 懂王只能收起那副嘴脸，来了这么一计！ 受此消息影响，今天出海产业链、消费电子链都回暖了！要说涨得最好的还是机 器人！ 随后特朗普亲自对记者说， 他在与北京的谈判中会"非常友好"，并表示一旦达成 协议，美国对中国进口商品征收的关税将大幅下降，但不会降为零。 大约有两个消息吧，一个是马斯克，虽然一季度业绩数据糟糕，但是马斯克还是 继续画饼，到今年年底，将有数千台Optimus机器人在特斯拉工厂工作；有信心 预测到2029年 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai government is enhancing financial support and innovative policy tools to better benefit private enterprises, particularly in the context of high-quality development [1] - Banks in Shanghai are collaborating with various parties to provide customized, comprehensive financial support for the growth of private enterprises [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Yinghui Technology Development Co., Ltd. received a 29 million yuan working capital loan from Agricultural Bank of China, utilizing intellectual property as collateral to address financing challenges for technology-driven companies [2] - Shanghai Communications Bank introduced an online standardized product called "Talent Loan" for startups, providing a credit limit of 1 million yuan initially, which was later increased to 2.65 million yuan as the company expanded [2] Group 3 - Envision Energy, a leader in smart wind power and green hydrogen solutions, received 7.5 billion yuan in financing support from Postal Savings Bank, which included a comprehensive credit scheme tailored to the company's needs [3] - The bank's support helped Envision Energy expand its wind power projects across multiple locations in China [3] Group 4 - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China supported a leading ODM company in the smart hardware design and manufacturing sector with a total investment of 250 million yuan through private equity funds, facilitating the company's growth and successful IPO [4] Group 5 - A leading private enterprise in lithium battery materials is advancing its new energy supply chain strategy with support from Bank of China, which provided a comprehensive service plan for key projects in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces [5] - The bank's collaborative approach included a dual-dimensional credit system and innovative funding models to overcome traditional technical bottlenecks [5] Group 6 - Jiangbolong, a leader in the storage industry, received a suite of financial services from Shanghai Pudong Development Bank to support its international investment and supply chain expansion, including cross-border acquisition loans [6] - The bank facilitated the acquisition of an 81% stake in SMART Brazil and provided integrated trade account services to enhance the company's offshore business development [6]

在本土存储行业，得瑞领新是当中一个不得不提的重要玩家。得益于过去多年在企业级市场 的坚持和持之以恒的投入，得瑞领新成功打造覆盖高性能NVMe SSD的全产品线，为数据中 心、云计算、人工智能等领域等客户提供高可靠性的存储方案支持。 最近，在CFMS | MemoryS 2025峰会上，得瑞领新重磅发布了D8000系列PCIe 5.0企业级固 态硬盘，包括D8436（1 DWPD）和D8456（3 DWPD）两种规格。作为得瑞领新的新一代旗 舰，D8000系列凭借一流的性能及稳定性成为全场瞩目之作。 得瑞领新销售VP冯小晖在峰会上更是表示"D8000系列的推出不仅是技术迭代，更是我们对未 来数据中心需求的战略响应。随着AI大模型与5G应用的爆发，存储系统正面临性能与能效的 双重挑战，而PCIe 5.0技术将成为破局关键。" 获得客户认可，凭什么？ 得瑞领新表示，公司一直坚持以客户需求为导向，持续加大研发投入（累计投入超10亿元），拥 有上百项发明专利，打造出了TAI、MENG、EMEI等自主研发的主控芯片，确保产品在高性能、 低延时、数据安全以及稳定性方面处于行业领先水平。这种技术优势，使公司的企业级SSD在数 ...

因技术进步与新产品的带动，预计2025年QD-OLED在OLED显示器出货占比将升至73% 根据Tr endFor c e集邦咨询最新研究，OLED显示技术持续发展，带动QD-OLED显示器(monitor)出 货量成长， 预计在OLED显示器的占比将从2024年68%提升至2025年73% ，展现出在高阶显示 器领域的竞争力。受到市场需求趋动，预期未来将有更多品牌和产品线采用QD-OLED技术，以提 升画质表现与刷新率，以满足高阶玩家和专业使用者的需求。 点击右边 阅读原文 了解更多详情 国际形势变化带动拉货潮，预估2Q25存储器合约价涨幅将扩大 根据Tr endFor c e集邦咨询最新调查，近期国际形势变化已切实改变了存储器供需方操作策略。 Tr endFor c e资深研究副总吴雅婷表示，由于买卖双方急于完成交易、推动生产出货，以应对未来市 场不确定性，预期第二季存储器市场的交易动能将随之增强。 点击右边 阅读原文 了解更多详情 TrendForce 存储产业 趋势分析 商业洞察 信息精选 PS:当您需要在报道中引用TrendForce集邦咨询提供的研报内容或分析资料，请注明资料来源为TrendFor ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangbolong's IPO application for the Hong Kong market has been accepted by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, marking a step forward for its listing process after raising 2.338 billion yuan in its A-share IPO in August 2022 [1][2]. Financial Performance - Jiangbolong's net profit surged from 128 million yuan in 2019 to 1.013 billion yuan in 2021, representing a sevenfold increase over three years [2][3]. - However, in the year of its IPO, the company's net profit dropped dramatically by 95.92% to 38 million yuan, followed by a significant loss of 880 million yuan in 2023 [3][5]. - The company attributed its poor performance to adverse macroeconomic factors, including the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and high global inflation, which led to a decline in market demand [5]. Comparison with Peers - Jiangbolong's profit fluctuations are notably inconsistent compared to its peers, with competitors like WDC and Corsair Gaming showing stable or growing profits during the same period [6][5]. - In 2023, while Jiangbolong reported a loss, its peers experienced profit growth, indicating a lack of alignment in performance within the industry [6]. Financial Data Discrepancies - There are significant discrepancies between Jiangbolong's financial data disclosed in its A-share IPO prospectus and its subsequent financial reports, raising questions about the authenticity of its financial statements [9][15]. - The company reported a cumulative net profit of 669 million yuan from 2019 to 2024, while its operating cash flow was negative at -4.874 billion yuan, indicating a severe divergence [7][8]. Dividend Controversy - Jiangbolong plans to use the funds raised from its Hong Kong IPO to expand production capacity and enhance R&D capabilities, despite having recently raised 2.338 billion yuan in its A-share IPO [16]. - The company declared cash dividends totaling 302 million yuan for 2022 and 2024, which is 147% of its net profit for the same period, raising concerns about its financial prudence given its recent losses [16][17].

Company Overview - The company is the inventor of flash drives, focusing on the research, production, and sales of storage products, aiming to provide solutions for global storage applications [5] - The main products include SSDs, DRAM memory modules, embedded storage, and mobile storage, with applications in various consumer electronics such as smartphones, tablets, and wearable devices [6][7] Industry Situation - The company's products belong to the storage industry, primarily semiconductor storage, which is characterized by small size and fast storage speed [9] - According to CFM flash market data, the global storage market size reached $120.225 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 96.8%, with an expected rebound of 77% to $160.7 billion for the entire year [9] - The NAND Flash and DRAM markets are expected to face price pressures in 2025 due to slowing demand and increased competition, with DRAM market growth anticipated due to the rise of HBM3e and DDR5 applications [9] - The server market is projected to be the most important application market for NAND Flash and DRAM in 2025, driven by the demand for AI and big data [11] Performance Drivers - The main performance drivers for the company's storage products include brand advantage, product cost-performance ratio, customer base in sales channels, and operational efficiency [8] Recent Developments - In February 2024, the company signed a cooperation agreement with the Shaoguan Municipal Government and other partners to enhance data center construction and digital transformation [15] - The company is collaborating on a project to establish a storage industry base in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [17] - The company has agreed to transfer 25% of its stake in a subsidiary, which will no longer be included in the consolidated financial statements [18] - The company has also signed a patent licensing agreement with Kingston, transferring rights and obligations related to a previous contract [19]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangbolong aims to establish Lexar as a top three brand in the global consumer storage market, reflecting the company's ambition for globalization and brand recognition [5][6]. Group 1: Company Strategy - Jiangbolong has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming for a dual listing ("A+H") to enhance its financing capabilities and reduce domestic uncertainties [2][3]. - The company previously planned to issue convertible bonds to raise nearly 3 billion yuan for acquiring 81% of SMART Brazil but canceled the issuance due to external environment changes and strategic factors [4]. - The chairman, Cai Huabo, emphasizes the importance of building a global brand and has expressed a desire to differentiate products to combat the cyclical nature of the storage industry [5][6]. Group 2: Market Positioning - The decision to list in Hong Kong is driven by financial needs and the desire to expand overseas, as it allows for raising funds in Hong Kong dollars to alleviate cash flow pressures [3]. - Jiangbolong's strategy includes enhancing brand recognition and transparency in operations, which is expected to facilitate international customer expansion [3][5]. - The company believes that the differentiation in global market demands can mitigate cyclical risks and lead to higher profit margins compared to the domestic market [6]. Group 3: Leadership and Vision - Cai Huabo holds a significant 38.96% stake in Jiangbolong, with a personal net worth of approximately 15.016 billion yuan based on the company's market value of 38.865 billion yuan [7]. - Industry experts recognize Cai Huabo's strategic vision and successful transition from various roles in the electronics industry, positioning him as a potential leader in the domestic electronic sector [7].

Market Overview - The Shenwan Electronics Industry Index fell by 4.09% last week, ranking 29th among 31 industries, underperforming the CSI 300 Index which rose by 1.80% [1] Company Performance - Micron's financial guidance is optimistic, with an increase in the HBM market size forecast. For FY2025Q2, revenue is projected at $8.053 billion, a decrease of 8% quarter-over-quarter but an increase of 38% year-over-year [1] - DRAM revenue is expected to be $6.123 billion, accounting for 76% of total revenue, with a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 4.4%. DRAM bit shipments are expected to decline by 7%-9%, while ASP is expected to grow in the low single digits [1] - NAND revenue is projected at $1.855 billion, making up 23% of total revenue, with a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 17.4%. NAND bit shipments are expected to see slight growth, but ASP is anticipated to decline by approximately 17%-19% [1] Segment Analysis - The CNBU segment saw revenue of $4.564 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4%, driven by over 50% growth in HBM revenue. The MBU segment's revenue was $1.068 billion, down 30% due to mobile customers optimizing inventory levels. The SBU segment's revenue decreased by 20%, primarily due to reduced storage investment from data center customers [2] - Micron anticipates a mid-single-digit percentage growth in server shipments for 2025, with both traditional and AI servers expected to grow. The HBM market demand remains strong, with a revised total market size forecast of over $35 billion for the 2025 calendar year [2] Future Outlook - In the data center business, Micron expects HBM3E 12H to account for a significant portion of total HBM shipments in the second half of 2025. HBM revenue is projected to reach several billion dollars in FY2025, with mass production of HBM4 expected in 2026 [2] - Due to short-term customer inventory impacts, NAND demand has slowed, but bit shipments are expected to recover in the coming months. For Q3 (March-May 2025), both DRAM and NAND bit shipments are expected to achieve positive growth, with revenue projected to reach $8.6-$9 billion, potentially setting a quarterly revenue record [2] Capital Expenditure Plans - Tencent's capital expenditure has seen triple-digit year-over-year growth for four consecutive quarters, expected to exceed 76.7 billion yuan in 2024, a 221% increase. The capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is projected at 12% for 2024, with guidance for low double digits in 2025 [3] - China Unicom's capital expenditure for computing power is expected to rise by 19% in 2024 and 28% in 2025, with fixed asset investment around 55 billion yuan, focusing on upgrading IDC to AIDC and traditional computing to intelligent computing [3] Investment Strategy - With upstream storage production control, inventory digestion, and expanding AI applications driving new demand for enterprise data centers, the supply-demand relationship in the industry is expected to gradually improve, leading to a potential recovery in storage prices and demand. Companies to watch include Baiwei Storage, Lanke Technology, Demingli, Jiangbolong, and others in the storage module sector, as well as those in AI-driven and domestic substitution logic within the AI industry chain and consumer electronics [3]

电子行业观察：致态渠道提货价涨幅超10%；中国 电视前两月出货量增长4.3% 近期，电子行业两大动态引发市场关注：一方面，闪存市场迎来新一轮价格调整，国内头部存储品 牌及国际厂商相继宣布提价；另一方面，中国电视市场在2025年前两月实现出货量稳步增长，行业复苏 迹象显现。 闪存市场迎价格普涨，头部品牌提货价上调超10% 根据CFM中国闪存市场消息，长江存储旗下零售品牌致态计划自4月起上调渠道提货价格，涨幅或 将超过10%。这一调整紧随国际品牌闪迪的涨价动作。据台媒TechNews披露，闪迪已向渠道商发布公 告，宣布其消费端产品自4月1日起全面提价，整体幅度同样超过10%。机构分析认为，此次价格普涨或 与上游供应链成本上升及市场需求回暖有关。 从行业背景来看，全球半导体市场正经历结构性调整。2025年1月数据显示，全球半导体销售额达 565.2亿美元，同比增长17.9%，反映产业链供需关系趋紧。与此同时，日本半导体设备出货量1月同比 大增32.37%，表明晶圆厂扩产需求持续旺盛。尽管手机等消费电子终端出货增速放缓，但存储厂商通 过价格策略优化库存与利润的意图明显。 值得注意的是，国产存储厂商的定价权提升是此次调 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating benefits from improved supply-demand dynamics in the storage industry [4]. Core Insights - The company reported FY25Q2 revenue of $8.05 billion, a 7.5% decrease quarter-over-quarter but a 38.3% increase year-over-year. GAAP net profit was $1.583 billion, down 15.3% quarter-over-quarter but up 99.6% year-over-year [1]. - The company is actively controlling production capacity, which, combined with increased consumption of DRAM by HBM, is expected to improve supply-demand conditions [2]. - The company forecasts a 15% to 20% growth in DRAM bit volume and low double-digit growth in NAND bit volume for 2025, with a mid-term CAGR of around 15% for both DRAM and NAND [2]. - The company expects data center server shipment growth in 2025 to be in the mid-single digits, driven by strong AI demand, with the HBM market projected to exceed $35 billion [3]. - The company projects FY25 revenues of $8.8 billion, with GAAP gross margins of approximately 35.5% and non-GAAP gross margins of about 36.5% [1]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - FY25Q2 revenue was $8.05 billion, with a GAAP gross margin of 36.8% and a non-GAAP gross margin of 37.9%. The company expects FY25Q3 revenue to be around $8.8 billion [1]. Operational Analysis - The company is focusing on production control, with expectations that DRAM and NAND supply growth will be below industry growth rates. The NAND wafer capacity is expected to decrease by 10% by the end of FY25 compared to FY24 [2]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates a mid-single-digit growth in PC shipments and low single-digit growth in mobile shipments for 2025, with a recovery in data center NAND shipments expected in the coming months [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected net profits for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are $6.282 billion, $9.606 billion, and $9.987 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/B ratios of 2.25, 1.91, and 1.65 [4].