2025 年 5 月 7 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【策略】盈利探底回升，科技板块景气度上行——A 股及港股财报分析 A 股 2024 年盈利增速回落，但 2025Q1 盈利增速显著回升。全部 A 股 2024 年归母 净利润同比下降2.3%，较2024年前三季度归母净利润增速回落2.4pct，而其2025Q1 归母净利润同比增长 3.6%，较 2024 年全年归母净利润增速回升 5.9pct。此外，港 股方面，2024H2 港股盈利增速较 2024H1 回升，恒生科技盈利保持高增。 市场基准利率以政策利率为中枢运行既是健全市场化利率调控机制的应有之义，也是 内嵌于"牵 OMO 利率之一发而带动各市场利率全身"的必然选择。即便没有美国加 征高额关税等事件，今年一季度以来的"正偏离"亦将向常态回归，而 4 月份相关事 件的出现加速了这一过程的到来。 行业研究 【汽车】新势力改款+新车相继发布，关注节后终端优惠变化——特斯拉与新势力 4 月销量跟踪报告(买入) 4 月车市表现平稳，新车上市/老车型终端优惠持续提振新势力销量，五一新势力购车 权益总体稳定，1）预计以旧换新驱动的 2025E 国内 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (600690) with a target price of 34.5 CNY, indicating an expectation of over 20% outperformance against the benchmark index in the next six months [2][7]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 79.12 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.49 billion CNY, up 15.1% year-on-year [7]. - The report highlights strong growth in both domestic and overseas markets, with domestic revenue growing by 7.8% and overseas revenue by 12.6% [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable domestic demand environment and ongoing digital transformation initiatives, which are anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected total revenue for 2024 is 285.98 billion CNY, increasing to 309.93 billion CNY in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4% [3][8]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: Expected net profit attributable to shareholders is 18.74 billion CNY for 2024, rising to 21.17 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 12.9% [3][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 2.00 CNY in 2024, increasing to 2.26 CNY in 2025, and further to 2.53 CNY in 2026 [3][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The report notes that Haier's traditional stronghold in the refrigerator and washing machine segments is expected to maintain stable growth, outperforming the industry average [7]. - The company is also focusing on high-growth segments such as air conditioning, which is projected to achieve double-digit growth due to government subsidies [7]. - The introduction of an employee stock ownership plan aims to align the interests of management and key employees with those of shareholders, enhancing long-term value creation [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Changhong Meiling, with a target price of 10.4 CNY [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.36 billion CNY in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 180 million CNY, up 16.9% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 6.2% to 170 million CNY [1][7]. - The company's performance is driven by strong domestic and overseas demand, with domestic sales benefiting from the continued "old-for-new" policy. The report indicates that the company's domestic sales growth aligns with industry performance, while overseas sales are expected to outperform domestic sales due to favorable market conditions [7][8]. - The report highlights that the company's profitability is slightly under pressure, with a gross margin decrease of 1.6 percentage points to 11.8% and a net margin decline of 1.4 percentage points to 2.5% in Q1 2025. This is attributed to fair value changes from foreign exchange orders and asset impairment provisions [7][8]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for the company is expected to grow from 28.6 billion CNY in 2024 to 37.5 billion CNY by 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.0%, 11.5%, 8.9%, and 8.1% respectively [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 699 million CNY in 2024 to 1.004 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of -5.6%, 14.9%, 12.9%, and 10.8% [3][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.68 CNY in 2024 to 0.97 CNY in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11, 10, 9, and 8 [3][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is undergoing internal reforms aimed at improving operational efficiency, which is expected to enhance profitability. The report notes that the company has a high proportion of domestic sales, which positions it well to benefit from national subsidy policies [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the structural market advantages due to the company's focus on emerging markets with high economic growth and low penetration rates, which helps mitigate tariff risks associated with exports to the U.S. [7][8].

美国挑起的关税战，原本是其试图遏制中国崛起的一场"豪赌"，但结果却让美国自己搬起石头砸了自己的脚。 中国在这场贸易战中的表现，不仅让世界刮目相看，也让那些低估中国的美国人彻底改变了看法。 中国的真实实力，远超美国的想象，而这场关税战，也成了中美力量对比变化的一个重要转折点。 美国高估了自己的影响力，低估了中国的韧性。 美国以为通过加征关税，就能让中国经济"低头"，但结果却是自己陷入了供应链危机和通货膨胀的泥沼。 中国不仅没有被打垮，反而通过调整出口结构、开拓新市场等方式，成功化解了压力。 比如，中国加大了对东南亚、非洲和欧洲市场的出口力度，2024年1-7月，中国与东盟双边贸易额达5520亿美元，同比增长7.7%。 这说明，中国在全球经济中的地位，已经不是美国能够轻易撼动的了。 中国在多个领域的崛起速度，也超出了美国的预期。 从钢铁产量来看，中国的钢铁产量已经突破10亿吨，占据全球钢铁产量的半壁江山，比西方七个工业化国家钢铁产量的总和还要多，是美国钢铁产量的12倍 以上。 这不仅仅是数字上的胜利，更是中国工业化实力的体现。 当然，钢铁产量只是工业化的指标之一，不能完全代表中国的力量超越了美国，但这是一个重要的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gree Electric Appliances has announced significant cash dividends and reported a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating a complex financial landscape as the company transitions into a new management era under the leadership of a new president while maintaining its core business focus on air conditioning. Financial Performance - In 2024, Gree Electric achieved total revenue of 1900.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.31%, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10.91% to 321.85 billion yuan [10][22][33] - For the first quarter of 2025, Gree reported approximately 416 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year growth of 13.78%, with net profit of about 59 billion yuan, up 26.29% [10][11][22] Dividend Distribution - Gree Electric plans to distribute a cash dividend of 20 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 111.7 billion yuan, alongside a mid-year dividend of 55.9 billion yuan, bringing the total cash dividends for the previous year to nearly 168 billion yuan [12][3][9] Management Transition - The company is entering a "post-董明珠 era" as 71-year-old董明珠 continues as chairman but has stepped down as president, with Zhang Wei taking over the role [4][12][24] -董明珠's recent comments on talent acquisition, particularly regarding "overseas returnees," have sparked public debate about the company's hiring philosophy and cultural alignment [6][12][13] Market Position and Competition - Gree Electric, once the leader in the domestic appliance market, faces increasing competition from Midea Group, which has become the dominant player in the industry [7][31][34] - In terms of air conditioning revenue, Gree reported 1512 billion yuan in 2023, while Midea's revenue was 1611.11 billion yuan, indicating a narrowing gap in their core business [32][33] Innovation and R&D - Gree Electric has established itself as a leader in innovation, holding over 129,500 patents, including 25,900 invention patents, and has been recognized for its technological advancements [20][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haier Smart Home is maintained as "Buy" [1][4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 79.12 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.49 billion RMB, up 15.1% year-on-year [4] - The company has launched a share repurchase plan worth 1-2 billion RMB to reward shareholders. The performance remains stable, and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained at 21.09 billion, 23.68 billion, and 25.95 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.25, 2.52, and 2.77 RMB [4] - The overseas revenue grew by 12.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with significant growth in North America and emerging markets [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 25.4%, and the net profit margin was 7.1%, reflecting a slight improvement [4] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 22.28 billion RMB, an increase of 32.5% year-on-year [4] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic revenue increased by 7.8% year-on-year, with the Casarte brand seeing over 20% growth. The home air conditioning sector's retail sales grew over 100% [4] - In North America, high-end brand revenue saw double-digit growth, while HVAC business revenue increased by triple digits. In Europe, market share for refrigerators and washing machines improved in Italy, France, the UK, and Spain [4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 306.43 billion, 325.02 billion, and 342.12 billion RMB, with expected growth rates of 7.2%, 6.1%, and 5.3% respectively [6] - The company anticipates a steady increase in net profit margins, with projections of 7.2%, 7.6%, and 7.9% for the years 2025 to 2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Midea Group is maintained as "Buy" [1][2] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Midea Group achieved revenue of 127.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.42 billion yuan, up 38.0% [2] - The company announced a new share repurchase plan of 1.5 to 3 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in its development [2] - The B-end business is experiencing rapid growth, while the C-end exports are showing high demand with limited tariff disruptions [2] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 43.50 billion, 47.00 billion, and 51.03 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 5.68, 6.13, and 6.66 yuan [2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 25.4%, with a net profit margin of 10.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percentage points [3] - The operating cash flow net amount increased by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [3] - The company’s revenue from commercial and industrial solutions grew by 25.3%, with significant contributions from new energy and industrial technology [2][3] Business Segments - The smart home business grew by 17.4% year-on-year, with overseas e-commerce sales increasing by over 50% [2] - The company plans to spin off its subsidiary, Ande Intelligent, for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance business management and financing channels [2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 441.40 billion, 472.48 billion, and 502.70 billion yuan, with corresponding net profit projections of 43.50 billion, 47.00 billion, and 51.03 billion yuan [4][9] - The expected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.0, 12.0, and 11.1 respectively [4][9]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industries Covered**: Appliances, Autos, Industrial Tech, Solar - **Geographical Focus**: China, US, Europe, ASEAN Key Insights by Industry 1. Appliances and Consumer Durables - **Revenue Exposure**: On average, companies derive 35% of revenues from China exports and 7% from exports to the US [2][3] - **Production Shift**: Companies are accelerating the shift of production to overseas factories, with increased orders from US clients noted as they aim to restock before the 90-day reprieve period expires [3][4] - **Price Negotiation Challenges**: Limited progress on price re-negotiation; companies expect US clients and end consumers to bear a larger share of tariff costs [4][5] - **Stable Demand Outside the US**: Demand remains stable outside the US, with Europe identified as a major market to absorb US capacity [6][7] - **CAPEX Uncertainty**: Companies remain cautious on capital expenditures due to tariff uncertainties, with Mexico seen as a relatively safer investment location [8][9] 2. Automotive Industry - **Revenue Exposure**: Companies derive 6%-26% of total revenue from China exports and 0%-10% from exports to the US [10] - **Positive Outlook for Europe**: Auto OEMs are optimistic about sales in Europe, with minimal impact from US-China trade tensions [11] - **Price Negotiation**: Auto suppliers are negotiating new prices, with some confirming the ability to pass on 100% of additional tariff burdens for certain products [12][13] - **Capacity Plans**: Auto suppliers are maintaining existing capacity expansion plans, with some considering building factories outside the US due to geopolitical risks [15][19] 3. Industrial Technology - **Revenue Exposure**: Companies derive 15%-45% of total revenue from exports and 2%-20% from exports to the US [22] - **Order Fluctuations**: Capital goods orders paused in early April but returned to normal by the second week; some companies reported stable US orders despite tariff challenges [22][24] - **Tariff Negotiation Issues**: High tariffs (145%) make price negotiations difficult, with most companies using FOB terms where customers bear additional costs [23][24] 4. Solar Industry - **Revenue Exposure**: Companies have 0%-15% direct exports to the US and 35%-55% to other countries [33] - **Declining US Orders**: US orders have slowed due to uncertainties related to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), particularly affecting utility-scale projects [34][35] - **Pricing Challenges**: Companies face difficulties in passing tariffs to customers amid deteriorating demand; concerns about potential price hikes dampening downstream demand [36][40] - **Capital Allocation Outlook**: Some companies are considering scaling back US exposure due to higher operational risks compared to other regions [37][40] Additional Important Insights - **Management Comments**: Various companies expressed concerns about the impact of tariffs on their operations and pricing strategies, with a focus on maintaining competitiveness and managing supply chain disruptions [9][16][20][38] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Companies are evaluating the feasibility of expanding production in regions like Mexico and Southeast Asia due to geopolitical uncertainties surrounding US tariffs [8][15][19][24] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends observed across the discussed industries, highlighting the ongoing challenges and strategic responses to tariff impacts and market dynamics.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haier Smart Home is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported a strong Q1 performance with revenue of 79.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 5.49 billion yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year [1] - The digital transformation efforts are yielding positive results, with gross margin improving to 25.4%, and net profit margin reaching 6.9%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is expanding its market share domestically and internationally, with significant growth in emerging markets, particularly in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East and Africa [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1, Haier achieved a revenue of 79.12 billion yuan, a 10.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.49 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.1% growth [1] - The gross margin increased by 0.1 percentage points to 25.4%, while the net profit margin improved to 6.9% [2] - The company generated a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.28 billion yuan, a 15% increase year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow generation capabilities [2] Market Position and Strategy - Haier is enhancing its competitive position through digital inventory models and brand diversification, with the Casarte brand growing over 20% [1] - The company is focusing on high-end brand strategies in overseas markets, achieving double-digit growth in the U.S. high-end segment and significant revenue increases in emerging markets [1][2] - The company plans to increase its self-sufficiency in core manufacturing capabilities and expand its global presence through acquisitions and capacity expansion [3] Financial Projections - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 21.39 billion yuan, 24.11 billion yuan, and 26.64 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.9x, 9.7x, and 8.7x [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Midea Group is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][3]. Core Views - Midea Group's revenue performance significantly exceeded expectations, with a reported revenue of 127.84 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.42 billion yuan, up 38.02% year-on-year [1][2]. - The growth was driven by strong exports in home appliances and positive trends in the ToB (business-to-business) segment, with notable increases in revenue from new energy and industrial technology, smart building technology, and robotics and automation [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 25.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin improved to 9.7%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Midea Group's cash flow from operating activities showed steady improvement, with a net cash flow of 14.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 2.8% year-on-year [2]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for Midea Group are as follows: 373.71 billion yuan in 2023, 409.08 billion yuan in 2024, and 442.75 billion yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 8.10%, 9.47%, and 8.23% respectively [4][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 33.72 billion yuan in 2023, 38.54 billion yuan in 2024, and 43.58 billion yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 14.10%, 14.29%, and 13.07% respectively [4][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.40 yuan in 2023, increasing to 5.03 yuan in 2024 and 5.69 yuan in 2025 [4][11]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 16.73 in 2023, decreasing to 14.64 in 2024 and 12.95 in 2025 [4][11].