Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is currently at a historical low in valuation, with expectations for recovery driven by improving real estate sentiment and policy expectations [3][5] - The report highlights specific companies for investment, including Gujia Home, Oppein Home, and Sophia, while also suggesting attention to undervalued stocks like Minda Holdings and Zhibang Home [3] - The report anticipates profit growth for Minda Holdings with projected net profits of HKD 2.07 billion, HKD 2.12 billion, and HKD 2.21 billion for FY2026 to FY2028, corresponding to PE ratios of 9X and 8X [3] - For Goodbaby International, projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are HKD 150 million, HKD 344 million, and HKD 385 million, with a current valuation suggesting a potential for recovery [3] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The report notes a 14.6% year-on-year increase in retail sales of furniture for 2025, with a 2.2% decline in December [5] - Residential construction area decreased by 20.2% year-on-year for 2025, with a 20.6% decline in December [5] - The report emphasizes the low valuation and institutional holdings in the home furnishing sector, suggesting a potential for valuation recovery [5] Paper and Packaging - As of January 23, 2026, prices for various paper products have shown a decline, with white cardboard down by 5 CNY/ton and boxboard down by 52.8 CNY/ton [8] - The report indicates that major paper companies are planning to increase prices by 200 CNY/ton in late February to early March [8] - The report recommends companies with strong domestic production capabilities, such as Nine Dragons Paper and Sun Paper, for investment [8] Consumer Goods - The report highlights a 9.0% year-on-year increase in retail sales for sports and entertainment products in December [5] - The consumer goods sector is expected to benefit from expanding channels and product price increases, particularly in oral care and medical products [5] - The report suggests investment opportunities in companies like Anta, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees, which are expected to perform well in the current market [5]

Group 1: North Star Life - North Star Life focuses on innovative medical devices for precise diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular diseases, being a national high-tech enterprise [1] - The company plans to issue 57 million shares at a price of 17.52 yuan per share, aiming to raise 952 million yuan for the construction of an interventional medical device industrialization base and R&D [1] - Projected revenue for 2025 is between 520 million yuan and 560 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 64.24% to 76.88%, with net profit expected to be between 78 million yuan and 88 million yuan, showing a growth of 278.91% to 301.85% [1] Group 2: Linping Development - Linping Development specializes in the R&D, production, and sales of corrugated paper and boxboard products, evolving into a resource utilization enterprise [2] - The company plans to issue 18.85 million shares, accounting for 25% of the total post-issue share capital, with a fundraising target of 1.2 billion yuan [2] - The funds will be used for projects that will increase production capacity by 90,000 tons of boxboard and 30,000 tons of corrugated paper, enhancing market competitiveness [2] - Revenue projections for 2022 to 2024 are approximately 2.879 billion yuan, 2.8 billion yuan, and 2.485 billion yuan, with net profits of 154 million yuan, 212 million yuan, and 153 million yuan, indicating a decline in 2024 [2] Group 3: Electric Science Blue Sky - Electric Science Blue Sky is engaged in the R&D, production, and sales of power energy products and systems, offering comprehensive solutions from deep sea to deep space [3] - The company plans to issue 174 million shares, aiming to raise 1.5 billion yuan for the industrialization of aerospace power systems [3] - Revenue from 2022 to the first half of 2025 is projected to be approximately 2.511 billion yuan, 3.524 billion yuan, 3.127 billion yuan, and 1.113 billion yuan, with net profits of 214 million yuan, 190 million yuan, 338 million yuan, and 59.47 million yuan [3]

行 轻工制造 2026 年 01 月 25 日 业 研 究 关轻注 工制造 地产预期改善，关注家居估值修复弹性 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 【周观点】①我们近期周报持续提示"家居板块估值处于历史低位，进入 2026 年，建议关注政策预期升温带动估值修复"，本周地产链情绪回暖， 家居龙头率先迎估值修复，持续推荐顾家家居、欧派家居、索菲亚、悍高 集团，建议关注低估值敏华控股、志邦家居。②1 月外盘浆价上涨，白卡 头部纸企发布年后涨价函，计划 2 月底 3 月初涨价 200 元/吨。 告 【周研究】①本周发布《敏华控股（1999.HK）：关注内外销积极的边际变 化》，我们预计 FY2026-FY2028 归母净利润分别为 20.7 亿港元、21.2 亿 港元、22.1 亿港元，目前股价对应 FY26、FY27 财年 PE 为 9X、8X，首 次覆盖给予"买入"评级。②《好孩子国际（1086.HK）：全球化婴童品牌 龙头，关注业绩改善弹性》，我们预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 1.50 亿港元、3.44 亿港元、3.85 亿港元，目前市值对应 25 年、26 年 PE 约 12X、 5X，公司当前估 ...

Group 1: AHP Scores and Expected Allocation Ratios - Linping Development's AHP scores, after excluding liquidity premium factors, are 1.29 and 2.01, placing it in the 17.1% and 36.9% percentiles of the non-Science and Technology Innovation Board AHP model, indicating a lower to mid-level position in the industry [10][11] - Assuming a 95% admission rate, the expected allocation ratios for offline A and B categories are 0.0121% and 0.0105% respectively [10][11] Group 2: Company Fundamentals and Highlights - Linping Development is a leading manufacturer of packaging paper in Anhui Province, with a current raw paper production capacity of 1.15 million tons, holding a market share of 0.75% nationally and 35.65% in Anhui Province [11][12] - The company plans to launch a new 8600mm corrugated paper production line in 2026, which will enhance its high-end product offerings and increase total production capacity to 2.35 million tons [11][12] - The company is committed to low-carbon development and has implemented a green manufacturing strategy, utilizing resources efficiently through combined heat and power generation [12][14] Group 3: Industry Trends and Competitive Landscape - The demand for corrugated and boxboard paper is expected to grow due to the e-commerce and logistics sectors, with a projected CAGR of 4.83% and 5.06% from 2015 to 2024 [16] - The removal of import tariffs on finished paper in 2023 led to a temporary surge in imports, but by the first half of 2025, import volumes have significantly decreased, stabilizing domestic prices [16][19] - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, with the CR10 rising from 36.67% in 2015 to 49.39% in 2024, driven by stricter environmental regulations and the exit of smaller players [16][19] Group 4: Financial Performance and Comparisons - Linping Development's revenue and net profit from 2022 to 2024 showed a CAGR of -7.09% and -0.52% respectively, primarily due to tariff adjustments and natural disasters impacting performance [20][24] - The company’s gross margin improved to 10.32% in the first half of 2025, with a stable cash collection ratio of 1.00, indicating strong operational efficiency compared to peers [26][29] - The average P/E ratio of comparable companies is 30.72X, while Linping Development's industry P/E is 26.24X, suggesting a relatively favorable valuation [20][24] Group 5: Investment Projects and Future Vision - The company plans to raise funds through an IPO to support projects including a 900,000-ton green intelligent manufacturing project and a 600,000-ton bio-based fiber project, with total investments of 20.58 billion yuan [39][40] - Upon completion, these projects will enhance product structure and production efficiency, solidifying Linping Development's competitive edge in the market [39][40]

Group 1: New IPOs Overview - Three new stocks are available for subscription next week, including Beixin Life, Electric Science Blue Sky, and Linping Development [2][3] - Electric Science Blue Sky is a key supplier in the aerospace power sector, with a total of 174 million shares issued, ranking second in A-share IPOs since 2026, indicating a higher probability of winning for investors [3] Group 2: Beixin Life - Beixin Life's subscription code is 787712, with an issue price of 17.52 yuan per share and a price-to-sales ratio of 23.08 times [5] - The company focuses on innovative medical devices for precise diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular diseases, becoming the first domestic company to offer a combination of FFR and IVUS products, filling a market gap [5][6] - Revenue projections for Beixin Life show significant growth, with expected revenues of 520 million to 560 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 64.24% to 76.88% [6][7] Group 3: Electric Science Blue Sky - Electric Science Blue Sky's subscription code is 787818, with the issue price and earnings ratio yet to be disclosed, but the industry average PE ratio is 44.16 times [9] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of power energy products and systems, with applications ranging from deep-sea to deep-space [9][11] - Revenue for Electric Science Blue Sky is projected to be between 3.138 billion and 3.435 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year change of -3.18% to 6.81% [12] Group 4: Linping Development - Linping Development's subscription code is 732284, with an industry average PE ratio of 26.36 times [14] - The company is engaged in the production of corrugated paper and boxboard, positioning itself as a resource utilization enterprise [14][15] - Revenue for Linping Development is expected to be between 2.640 billion and 2.780 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 6.23% to 11.87% [17]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shanying International, is expected to report significant losses for the year 2025, with net profit forecasts indicating a decline compared to the previous year [2][3][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 23, 2026, Shanying International's stock closed at 1.7 yuan, reflecting a 2.41% increase from the previous week's closing price of 1.66 yuan [1]. - The stock reached a high of 1.7 yuan and a low of 1.65 yuan during the week [1]. - The company's current total market capitalization is 10.723 billion yuan, ranking 3rd in the paper industry and 1972nd among all A-shares [1]. Group 2: Earnings Forecast - Shanying International has issued an earnings forecast indicating a net profit loss for 2025, estimated between 8.5 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan [3][4]. - The company anticipates a loss of 10.5 billion yuan to 12 billion yuan when excluding non-recurring gains and losses [2][4]. - The expected increase in losses compared to the previous year is attributed to a decline in gross profit margins and reduced investment income, particularly due to the sale of Nordic Paper's equity in the previous period [4][6]. Group 3: Operational Status - The company has successfully converted and redeemed its convertible bonds, with credit impairments gradually being repaired [5][6]. - Shanying International's production and operations are reported to be normal, and it has not encountered any financial delisting risk warnings [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shanying International, anticipates a net loss of 850 million to 1 billion yuan for the year 2025, which is an increase from the 451 million yuan loss in 2024 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected net loss is attributed to a decline in gross margin from core operations and reduced investment income [1] - The gross margin pressure is primarily due to the company's strategy to ensure cash flow safety by adjusting accounts receivable and payable to prioritize the repayment of "Eagle 19 convertible bonds" [1] - The company has successfully completed the conversion and repayment of the convertible bonds, eliminating systemic credit risk and gradually restoring credit value [1] Group 2: Operational Strategy - Despite the financial challenges, the company's paperboard segment has achieved synchronized production and sales growth [1] - The operating cash flow remains healthy, indicating stable cash generation capabilities from core operations [1] - With reduced debt pressure, the company is focusing on high-end fiber wood pulp projects to enhance cost competitiveness and leverage industry chain synergies for transformation opportunities [1]

Group 1: Currency Exchange and Economic Predictions - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate is expected to rise above 7.0 by the end of 2025, marking a 14-month high, influenced by the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and global capital flow shifts [1] - Economist Huang Qifan predicts that the RMB will appreciate to around 6.0 against the USD over the next decade, supported by China's industrial value added accounting for 32% of the global economy [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy and Capital Flows - The Federal Reserve is projected to cut interest rates by a total of 200 basis points by the end of 2025, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00-4.25% [3] - The USD index is expected to decline from 105 to below 95, prompting investors to reassess global asset allocations [3] - By the second half of 2025, Chinese companies are anticipated to sell off $800 billion in USD assets, primarily investing in technology sectors such as semiconductors and renewable energy [3] Group 3: Impact on Import and Export Sectors - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to benefit import enterprises, with China's oil import costs projected to decrease by approximately 5% due to exchange rate factors, saving over $1 billion for petrochemical companies [4] - Conversely, the export sector faces challenges, with a projected 5% decline in exports to the US, leading to reduced orders for textile companies [6] Group 4: Cross-Border Capital Flows and Payment Systems - By 2025, northbound capital inflows are expected to exceed 150 billion RMB, doubling from 2024, with significant investments in high-dividend assets [6] - The CIPS cross-border payment system is projected to handle 12% of SWIFT's transaction volume, with RMB payments accounting for 30%, facilitating capital repatriation [6] Group 5: Global Currency Dynamics - The RMB's weight in the IMF's SDR basket is expected to rise to 12.28% by 2025, with countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia beginning to use RMB for oil trade settlements [6] - Criticism of the US for misusing dollar hegemony is growing, particularly as its budget deficit reaches 6% of GDP while continuing to lower interest rates [6] Group 6: Economic Structure and Trade Dynamics - China's export of new energy vehicles is projected to reach $120 billion by 2025, a sevenfold increase since 2019, while integrated circuit exports are expected to rise from $100 billion to $150 billion [10] - The US's attempts to reverse trade deficits through tariffs have resulted in an overall widening of its trade deficit [10]

Core Viewpoint - Company expects a net loss of 850 million to 1 billion yuan for 2025, indicating an expansion in loss compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Company reported a decrease in gross profit margin due to credit impairment before the maturity of convertible bonds, which pressured short-term profit margins [1] - Financial expenses decreased by 23.38% year-on-year, and operating net cash flow remained healthy at 2.125 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Company is actively adjusting its operational strategy, focusing on synchronizing production and sales in the paperboard sector [1] - Management emphasizes "exchanging profit for safety" to ensure cash flow security during the critical period of bond repayment [1] Group 3: Future Development - Company aims to accelerate its transition to high-end manufacturing, particularly through the implementation of high-end fiber wood pulp projects to enhance cost competitiveness [2] - A new partnership, Wuhu Shengying Enterprise Management Consulting Partnership, was established with a total investment of 2.977 billion yuan, aimed at resource integration and structural optimization [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shanying International, is forecasting a net profit loss of between 850 million to 1 billion yuan for the year 2025, primarily due to declining gross margins and reduced investment income [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The expected net profit loss for 2025 is projected to be between 850 million to 1 billion yuan [1]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a decrease in gross margin and a reduction in investment income [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Performance Change - The paper manufacturing segment is expected to achieve synchronized growth in production and sales for 2025, but the overall performance is negatively impacted by a drop in gross margin and investment income [2]. - The reduction in investment income is mainly due to the previous sale of Nordic Paper's equity and decreased investment income from joint ventures [2]. - The decline in gross margin is linked to credit impairment before the maturity of the convertible bonds, leading the company to adjust accounts receivable and payable to ensure liquidity [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance Indicators - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 21.133 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.17% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was -290 million yuan, a significant year-on-year decline of 522.74% [3]. - The gross margin for the period was reported at 7.91% [3].