gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 【原油】 美委紧张局势加剧，美国扣押了一艘戴有约185万桶委内瑞拉重质原油的邮轮，消息并未引发市场关 于供应中断的担忧。俄罗斯11月海运石油产品出口量仅比10月下降0.8%，炼油厂完成检修后复工抵 消了黑海等燃料出口量下降的影响。驱动油价核心因素仍围绕供应过剩压力,她缘消息频发下油价 波动加剧,但波动幅度及持续性正呈现弱化趋势。 (责金属) 周五美国科技股下跌带动金融市场剧烈波动,贵金属冲高回落。上周美联储如期降息同时宣布购债 计划,鲍威尔强调就业下行风险,会议释放中性偏鸽信号略超预期。短期市场波动放大,黄金关注 历史高点位置阻力,如果实现突破则贵金属近期强势表现有望延续。 【铜】 上周五夜盘铜价短线回调快，沪铜盘中减仓暂时关注MA10日均线表现。目前仓量仍高，周内关注美 国前期迟滞公布的经济指标与日本央行动作。多单减仓观望。 (铝) 周五美股下跌带动商品市场整体走弱,沪铝跌破22000元。近期铝市基本面矛盾有限,社库小幅下 降,现货反馈尚可,沪铝中期震荡偏强趋势维持,短期关注40日线和布林线中轨位置支撑。 (铸造铝合金) 废 ...

Report Overview This is a futures research report from Baocheng Futures, providing daily arbitrage data for various commodities on December 15, 2025. It covers multiple sectors including thermal coal, energy and chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report presents detailed historical data on the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of different futures commodities, aiming to offer reference for market participants in analyzing price relationships and potential arbitrage opportunities among various futures contracts. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Thermal Coal - **Basis Data**: From December 8 to December 12, 2025, the basis of thermal coal was -22.4, -32.4, -40.4, -48.4, -56.4 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Data on basis, price ratios, and other indicators for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt are provided, such as the basis of INE crude oil on December 8, 2025, being 9.43 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities** - **Basis**: From December 8 to December 12, 2025, the basis of rubber was -365, -285, -365, -285, -280 yuan/ton respectively; for methanol, it was 11, 29, 42, 51, 40.5 yuan/ton respectively [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was -20 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month minus 1 - month spread was -40 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On December 12, 2025, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2276 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE - PP spread was 375 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was -13 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month spread was 20 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On December 12, 2025, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.04, and the rebar/coke ratio was 20480 [19]. - **Basis**: From December 8 to December 12, 2025, the basis of rebar was 137, 161, 183, 181, 190 yuan/ton respectively [20]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market Basis**: From December 8 to December 12, 2025, the basis of copper was -590, 730, -10, 170, -620 yuan/ton respectively [28]. - **London Market**: On December 12, 2025, the LME copper premium/discount was 20.69, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92 [33]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: From December 8 to December 12, 2025, the basis of soybean No.1 was -65, -69, -141, -153, -118 yuan/ton respectively [38]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybean No.1 was 25 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month minus 1 - month spread was 32 yuan/ton [38]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On December 12, 2025, the soybean No.1/corn ratio was 1.85, and the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio was 2.89 [38]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: On December 12, 2025, the basis of CSI 300 was 6.95, and the basis of SSE 50 was 7.84 [49]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The next - month minus current - month spread of CSI 300 was -172, and the next - quarter minus current - quarter spread was -440 [49].

目前国际玉米市场的供需情况如何？ 国内玉米市场供需情况及未来价格走势如何？ 从国际市场来看，2025 年美国的玉米产量显著增加，主要原因是播种面积大 幅增长。根据美国农业部 12 月份的报告，美国玉米产量从 3.78 亿吨增至 4.25 亿吨，增幅达 4,700 万吨。同时，巴西的玉米产量预期从 1.36 亿吨降至 1.31 亿吨，减少 500 万吨；阿根廷则从 5,000 万吨增至 5,300 万吨，增加 300 万吨。总体而言，主要出口国总共增加了 4,500 万吨左右的产量。国际市 场上的库存较为充裕，其库销比在 21%左右，这在历史上属于偏宽松状态。而 美国本土的库存消费比达到了 12.5%，处于近年来相对较高的位置。基于这些 因素，我们预计国际玉米价格将在 400 美分到 500 美分之间波动。 农产品供需近况和价格展望 20251214 摘要 国际玉米市场库存充裕，库销比约为 21%，预计国际玉米价格在 400- 500 美分区间波动。巴西玉米产量下调，阿根廷上调，主要出口国总产 量增加约 4,500 万吨。 国内玉米市场 2025/26 年度总供给预计下降约 1,100 万吨，主要因去 除库存量 ...

Financial Data Overview - The social financing scale increased by 33.39 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, exceeding last year's total by 3.99 trillion yuan [1] - M2 grew by 8% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 4.9% [1] - The balance of RMB loans rose by 6.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in inclusive small and micro loans, medium to long-term loans in manufacturing, and technology loans [1] Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced weakness following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which is expected to improve market liquidity and boost risk appetite [2][19] - Long-term support for precious metals remains strong due to factors like the weakening of the US dollar's credibility and central bank gold purchases [2][19] Copper Market - Copper prices fell over 2% due to ongoing tightness in concentrate supply and fluctuating smelting profits [20] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported stable electricity investment and positive growth in automobile production and sales, while the real estate sector remains weak [20] Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped by 1.74%, influenced by a decline in market risk appetite prior to the Federal Reserve's meeting [22] - Despite limited production growth in December, demand remains acceptable, with attention needed on the impact of seasonal factors as the New Year approaches [22] Economic Policies - The Ministry of Finance emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies to support domestic demand and optimize supply, aiming for high-quality development [6] - The central economic work conference highlighted the importance of maintaining a stable economic environment and addressing key risks [6] International News - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its commitment to interest rate hikes, with future decisions dependent on economic responses to previous hikes [5] Industry Developments - A new company, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., was established by leading silicon material enterprises, marking a significant step in the photovoltaic industry [6]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货 研究发展部 石丽红 研究助理涂标 本报告完成时间 | 2025年12月14日 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考。因本平台暂时无法设 置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对 由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！ 本周受大豆拍卖及俄罗斯菜油退运信息刺激，菜系油粕低位反弹。基本面方面，国际菜籽依旧存在较大 消耗压力，尤其是远月估值承压。对于国内而言，后期跟踪线索仍在于供应边际转宽松的兑现幅度和节 奏，预计短期内菜系单边无明显上行动能。 澳菜籽到港兑现，菜籽压榨预期回升 预计首条澳菜籽将于近期正式进入压榨，国内油厂压榨开机率边际回升概率较高，但总体而言目前库存 基数有限，预计近端产出能力依然不足。后期需关注第二条、第三条澳菜籽发船时间节点及预估抵港时 间，预计26年1季度中国压榨厂每月可供压榨菜籽有望达到2条。 近端继续去库，菜粕具备相对性价比 另一方面，全国菜油、菜粕库存整体去库趋势维持，其中沿海 ...

"我们以'鲜奇'的品类、'鲜美'的口感、'鲜洁'的安全、'鲜时'的便捷、'鲜活'的人生'五鲜'理念为内 核，让每一份产品都承载着品质与温度。"泰兴农产品加工园区主任崔振介绍，园区构建了"从农田到餐 桌"全链条安全管控体系，生产端的原料追溯系统，让"鲜洁"成为园区产品的核心标签，真正实现"鲜时 即享"。2024年以来，园区已联合14家食品企业攻克6项关键技术，研发出单兵口粮、银杏功能食品等15 个新品，科技创新正成为驱动产业发展的核心动力。 "十五五"规划建议提出，要"统筹发展科技农业、绿色农业、质量农业、品牌农业，把农业建成现 代化大产业"。2024年以来，园区新签约亿元以上项目43个，计划总投资达156亿元，新型食品产业项目 占比80%以上。新启用的创新研究院将围绕精准营养健康、食品新材料等六大研发方向，着力解决农产 品和食品产业共性问题，进行关键核心技术攻关。 "泰兴的新型食品产业大有可为、未来可期。"泰兴市委书记刘文荣表示，近年来，泰兴深入实施 123特色产业攀升行动，将农产品加工作为推动乡村振兴和产业升级的重要抓手，推动"未来加工"理念 生根发芽，产业集聚效应持续增强。泰兴将依托创新研究院这一重要平台 ...

转载请注明央视财经 编辑：王昕宇 （央视财经《财经调查》）总台《财经调查》栏目接到群众举报，反映陈皮市场存在年份虚标、产地及 工艺造假等问题，千元一斤的"年份陈皮"亦可能名不副实。广西浦北作为茶枝柑重要产地，新柑皮成本 低廉，而按标准需自然陈化三年以上方可称为陈皮，但自然陈化周期长、资金占用大。 一家企业的负责人私下告诉记者，为缓解资金占用压力，一种名为"轻工艺"的速成加工方式，眼下正在 部分陈皮生产企业里流行，他们仅需一个月的时间，就能将新采收的茶枝柑果皮处理为外观近似三年、 五年自然陈化过的陈皮。企业造假"工艺皮"成本仅70元左右，高额利润促使更多商家放弃自然陈化、铤 而走险。在广西浦北县柑浦堂健康产业有限公司分拣车间，记者见到大批量造假"工艺皮"陈皮，同一 批"工艺皮"因加工受热差异形成色差，被分拣标注为不同年份。负责人透露，不同年份"工艺皮"本质相 同，批发价均70元左右一斤，零售价差极大，标五年款卖500元一斤，标十年款卖1000元一斤，仅凭外 观就能翻倍抬价，利润超成本十倍以上。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is waiting for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom. Currently, the valuation is not low enough and there is no clear driving force. It is recommended to operate with a light position. The price may break upward if there is a smooth production reduction in the first quarter, and new imagination space for the new year will be created when the origin starts to destock and the production in the first and second quarters is lower than expected [2]. - Soybean oil and its spreads are temporarily range - bound. They are waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector and the thematic resonance in the first quarter. The short - term pressure on US soybeans remains, and the driving force provided by the domestic spot market is limited at present [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: After the release of the MPOB report, the price rebounded after the negative factors were exhausted. However, the trading of the high - yield margin was not fully digested, and the high inventory suppressed the rebound height. The palm oil 01 contract fell 0.65% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: The sales progress of US soybeans was slow. Without weather speculation in South America, the upward driving force was limited. It mainly followed the oil and fat sector in a range - bound manner without upward momentum. The soybean oil 01 contract fell 1.06% last week [1]. 3.2 This Week's Views and Logic Palm oil - High production and low demand pushed Malaysia's December palm oil inventory to 2.8 million tons, approaching the 2018 high. The rebound after the report was weak, and the market was reluctant to bet on the production inflection point. More monthly production data are needed to verify the reasons for the high - yield. If the production in December decreases to around 1.7 million tons, the bottom of palm oil can be short - term confirmed [2]. - In Indonesia, the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia and the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra have declined, and the refining profit has rebounded rapidly. Indonesia still has room for marginal price cuts, and Malaysia's production will be the key factor for price support. The September data released by GAPKI is of little trading value due to possible distortion, but the export data from October to November indicates that the average monthly production in these two months is at least 4.8 million tons, and the year - end inventory can be maintained above 3 million tons, with a potential increase of about 1 million tons in 2026 [2]. - In the consumer areas, India's CPO import profit is still good, which stimulates India's purchasing, showing certain marginal demand. However, China's import profit inversion has widened, and the pressure release at the origin is very slow. Overall, palm oil is waiting for the December production reduction in Malaysia to confirm the price bottom, and it will mainly operate in a range without breakthrough momentum under fundamental trading [2]. Soybean oil - The inventory of US soybeans is slightly loose under the condition of good yield per unit. The new - crop CBOT soybean price needs a further reduction in yield per unit or China's unexpected over - purchase to rise. The uneven rainfall in central and western Brazil since October may limit the high - yield potential in some areas, but it is not enough to weaken the production prospect of the new season in South America. Argentina also has no speculative factors for the time being. The short - term pressure on US soybeans remains, and China's purchasing rhythm and South American weather will determine the degree of correction [4]. - In the domestic market, there is almost no gap in soybean arrivals until January, but the estimated arrivals from February to March are lower than the same period last year. The export demand enables domestic soybean oil to maintain the monthly destocking process until March or April next year, but the driving force provided by the domestic spot market is also very limited at present. Soybean oil and its spreads are temporarily range - bound, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector and the thematic resonance in the first quarter [4]. 3.3盘面基本行情数据 (Basic Market Data of Futures) - **Price and Volume Data**: The palm oil main - continuous contract opened at 8,780 yuan/ton, closed at 8,552 yuan/ton, down 1.99%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract opened at 8,282 yuan/ton, closed at 7,994 yuan/ton, down 3.27%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract opened at 9,625 yuan/ton, closed at 9,347 yuan/ton, down 3.10%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees [6]. - **Spread Data**: The rapeseed - soybean 01 spread was 1,368 yuan/ton, up 1.18%; the soybean - palm 01 spread was - 368 yuan/ton, up 26.98%; the spreads of 1 - 5 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all increased to different extents [6]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts increased by 498 to 950; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts increased by 3,195 to 25,964; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 316 to 3,476 [6]. 3.4油脂基本面核心数据 (Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats) - **Palm Oil Data**: Malaysia's palm oil production reduction in the fourth quarter is slow, and the inventory at the end of the year is still high. Indonesia's year - end inventory is expected to return to a neutral and slightly loose level. The export of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 10 was 390,400 tons, a 15% decrease compared with the same period last month. The POGO spread rebounded [8][12]. - **Demand - related Data**: India's palm oil import profit has improved rapidly, and the CNF spread between soybean oil and palm oil in India has strengthened. The EU's cumulative imports of palm oil and four major oils and fats in 2025 have decreased by 400,000 tons and 600,000 tons respectively [13][14]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of palm oil (South China) for the 01 contract is - 30, and the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu) has increased [13].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 27 products experiencing price increases, 19 seeing declines, and 4 remaining stable in early December 2025 compared to late November 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, rebar prices increased by 23.4 yuan per ton (0.7%), while wire rod prices rose by 47.3 yuan per ton (1.4%) [4]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper saw a price increase of 4.7% (4059.8 yuan per ton), and aluminum ingots rose by 2.1% (449.2 yuan per ton) [4]. - Chemical products showed varied results, with sulfuric acid prices increasing by 7.9% (74.4 yuan per ton), while caustic soda prices decreased by 5.1% (-42.1 yuan per ton) [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas prices fell by 2.9% (-121.5 yuan per ton), while liquefied petroleum gas prices increased by 1.6% (69.5 yuan per ton) [4]. - Coal prices generally declined, with anthracite coal dropping by 1.4% (-12.8 yuan per ton) and common mixed coal decreasing by 5.7% (-36.3 yuan per ton) [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Fertilizers - In agricultural products, corn prices increased by 1.4% (29.9 yuan per ton), while soybean prices decreased by 0.3% (-11.6 yuan per ton) [5]. - Fertilizer prices showed an upward trend, with urea prices rising by 2.2% (36.5 yuan per ton) and compound fertilizer prices increasing by 2.2% (72.4 yuan per ton) [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring includes data from over 2,000 wholesalers, agents, and distributors across more than 300 trading markets in 31 provinces [7]. - The methodology for price collection involves on-site price sampling, telephone inquiries, and electronic communications [8].

黔"雁"南飞取真 经，第二期贵 州"头雁"培育能 力提升集训班在 中山大学结业_ 南方+_南方plus 12月6日至9日， 第二期贵州"头 雁"培育能力提 升集训班在中山 大学举办，来自 贵州各地的170 余名乡村产业带 头人——"头 雁"们，飞越黔 岭，齐聚珠江之 畔，开启了一场 为期四天的沉浸 式学习与对接之 旅。 开班式现场 政校协同育"领 头雁" 贵州省农业农村 厅党组成员、副 厅长缪杰，贵州 省人力资源和社 会保障厅人才服 务局局长陈鹏， 中山大学副校长 邰忠智等出席开 班式，共同 为"头雁"们鼓 劲。贵州省委组 织部、省财政 厅、团省委及相 关市州农业农村 部门负责人、国 内五所顶尖培育 高校代表齐聚一 堂。 中山大学副校长邰忠智致欢迎辞 "头雁项目，上 接国家乡村振兴 战略天线，下连 贵州田间地头地 气，是培育乡村 产业人才的金字 招牌。"中山大 学副校长邰忠智 殷切期望学员们 能将"湾区的理 念、市场的逻 辑、创新的火 花"带回贵州， 转化为乡村产业 高质量发展的强 劲动能。 贵州省农业农村厅副厅长缪杰作开班动员讲话 贵州省农业农村 厅副厅长缪杰寄 语学员们要珍惜 机会、潜心学 习，希望通过各 ...