1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, with the restart of some devices, the de - stocking pace slows down. Given the lack of unexpected performance in polyester and upcoming new production, long - term inventory build - up is expected. However, the processing fee has been at a very low level for a long time, and as PX supply gradually recovers, opportunities to expand processing fees under potential additional maintenance should be monitored [1]. - Regarding MEG, near - term domestic oil - based production has slightly reduced its load, while coal - based production has maintained its operation. Overseas, there are both maintenance and restart situations. With stable arrivals and weak shipments, port inventories have slightly increased. Although new devices have been put into operation earlier than expected and valuations have been significantly compressed, considering the subsequent increase in arrivals and high - supply expectations in the long - term, ports may start to gradually accumulate inventory. However, the current inventory level is still not high, and valuations may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based production costs [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate has increased due to some devices increasing their loads. Sales have improved compared to the previous period, and inventories have continued to decline. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn has remained stable, raw material inventory has increased, and finished - product inventories have decreased. However, the profit margin is weak. In the future, the rate of increasing the start - up rate of polyester yarn may slow down due to high finished - product inventories. The start - up rate of staple fiber will remain high due to good spot profit margins, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [1]. - In the case of natural rubber, the national visible inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber has also been stable. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Device Changes**: Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device restarted, and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton device stopped [1]. - **Market Situation**: Near - term TA maintenance has been implemented, the start - up rate has slightly decreased, polyester load has remained basically stable, inventory has slightly accumulated, the basis has weakened, and spot processing fees have slightly recovered. Domestically, the start - up rate of PX has decreased, overseas devices have operated smoothly, PXN has weakened month - on - month, the benefits of disproportionation and isomerization have remained basically stable, and the price difference between US and Asian aromatics has widened [1]. MEG - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device stopped again, and Shanxi Meijin's 300,000 - ton device underwent maintenance [1]. - **Market Situation**: Near - term domestic oil - based EG production has slightly reduced its load, coal - based production has maintained its operation, overseas there are both maintenance and restart situations. Arrivals have remained stable while shipments have been weak, and port inventories have slightly increased at the beginning of next week. Downstream inventory levels have increased, the basis has weakened month - on - month, and the profit - to - price ratio has shrunk [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device Changes**: Zhongtai and Xianglu have increased their loads, and the start - up rate has increased to 95.4% [1]. - **Market Situation**: Sales have improved compared to the previous period, and inventories have continued to decline. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn has remained stable, raw material inventory has increased, finished - product inventories have decreased, but the profit margin is weak [1]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: There have been daily and weekly changes in the prices of various types of natural rubber products such as US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber, US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, etc. [1]. - **Market Situation**: The national visible inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber has been stable due to rainfall [1].

东海期货表示，短纤跟随聚酯板块调整，价格略有下降。终端订单季节性有提升但幅度有限，短纤开工 反弹导致库存出现有限累积，后期更多的去化仍然需要观察到终端订单的持续回暖带来的开工提升反 馈，目前来看后续上升空间或有限。短纤中期跟随聚酯端保持或可继续逢高空。 目前来看，短纤行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于短纤后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 新湖期货指出，上一交易日,直纺涤短跟随原料进一步走弱，半光1.4D主流商谈重心降至6250~6550区 间。下游多开始储备国庆假期用料，低位采购积极性尚可，期现及贸易商成交较多，工厂方面销售一 般，平均产销44%。装置方面，进入9月份以后短纤工厂负荷逐步恢复，目前行业平均负荷靠近95%。 需求端，纯涤纱及涤棉纱报价维持，成交商谈，销售不温不火。总体来看，短纤估值低，下方有一定支 撑，预当前需求环比改善，加工费有小幅修复空间。 9月25日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，短纤期货主力合约开盘报6310.00元/吨，今日盘中高位 震荡运行；截至发稿，短纤主力最高触及6362.00元，下方探低6286.00元，涨幅达1.34%附近。 瑞达期货（002961）分析称 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, with the restart of devices, the de - stocking slows down. Considering the lack of unexpected performance in polyester and future new production, the long - term inventory accumulation is expected. But the processing fee has reached a very low level for a long time, and with the gradual return of PX supply, attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees under potential additional maintenance [1]. - For MEG, the near - term domestic oil - based production has a slight reduction in load, coal - based production remains stable, and overseas devices have both maintenance and restart. With the increase in arrivals and high - supply expectations in the long - term, the port may gradually accumulate inventory, but the current inventory is not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the device start - up rate has increased, production and sales have improved, and inventory has decreased. In the future, the speed of increasing the load at the yarn end may slow down, but the start - up rate remains high due to good spot benefits, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For styrene and its related products, the prices and production profits of relevant products have changed, and the start - up rates of some products such as EPS and ABS also show certain trends [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PTA - **Device Changes**: Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton device reduced load, Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device restarted, and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton device stopped [1]. - **Market Situation**: Near - term TA maintenance was implemented, the start - up rate decreased slightly, polyester load was basically stable, inventory increased slightly, the basis weakened, and spot processing fees were slightly repaired. PX domestic start - up rate decreased, overseas devices operated stably, PXN decreased month - on - month, disproportionation and isomerization benefits were basically stable, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia widened [1]. MEG - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device stopped again [1]. - **Market Situation**: Near - term domestic oil - based EG slightly reduced load, coal - based start - up remained stable, overseas devices had both maintenance and restart. Arrivals remained stable while shipments were dull, and port inventory increased slightly at the beginning of next week. Downstream stocking levels increased, the basis weakened month - on - month, and the benefit ratio decreased [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device Changes**: Zhongtai and Xianglu increased their device loads, and the start - up rate increased to 95.4% [1]. - **Market Situation**: Production and sales improved month - on - month, inventory continued to decrease. At the demand end, the start - up rate of the yarn end remained stable, raw material stocking increased, and finished product inventory decreased month - on - month, but the benefits were weak [1]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: The prices of various types of natural rubber, such as US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber and Thai standard rubber, showed certain fluctuations, and the price of Thai cup rubber was relatively stable [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: The national explicit inventory was stable [1]. Styrene and Related Products - **Price Changes**: The prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene and other products changed daily, and the production profits of products such as ABS, EPS, and PS also showed corresponding changes [1]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS showed different trends [1].

从入围名单来看，行业分布上，以制造业为主，入围企业共81家，较上年增长4家；地域分布上，经济技术开发区22家，沭阳县18家，泗阳县11家，泗洪 县10家，宿豫区20家，宿城区12家，湖滨新区3家，苏宿园区3家、洋河新区1家。宿迁百强企业全年实现营业收入总额2824.5亿元，拥有资产总额2783.95 亿元，共计纳税总额61.12亿元。 9月24日，2025宿迁民营企业百强名单出炉，京东物流运输有限公司以营收224.71亿元居于首位，天能股份江苏沭阳公司、江苏桐昆恒阳化纤有限公司紧 随其后位居第二位、第三位。 | | | 2025宿迁民营企业百强名单 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 企业名称 | 行业类别 | 属地 | | 1 | 京东物流运输有限公司 | 交通运输、仓储和邮政业 | 宿豫区 | | 2 | 天能验价江东试阳公司 | 制造业 | 沭阳县 | | 3 | 江苏桐昆恒阳化纤有限公司 | 制造业 | 沐田貝 | | 4 | 江苏东磁新能源科技有限公司 | 制造业 | 泗洪县 | | 5 | 宿迁泰得贸易有限公司 | 批发和零售业 | 宿城区 | | 6 | 天 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Information - As of September 23, 2025, the spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $597.50 per ton, up 0.31% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 22, 2025, the price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was $846.00 per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 24, 2025, the ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China was 6,300 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the spot price of methanol MA was 2,250 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia was 290 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the closing price of DCE EG's主力合约 was 4,212 yuan per ton, down 0.66% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,214 yuan per ton, down 0.82% [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the closing price of DCE EG's near - month contract was 4,200 yuan per ton, down 3.18% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,139 yuan per ton, down 4.59% [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the market price of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China was 4,280 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of MEG was 4,290 yuan per ton, down 1.04% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the near - far month price difference was 75 yuan per ton, down from 89 yuan per ton; the basis was 78 yuan per ton, down from 95 yuan per ton [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,400 yuan per ton, down 0.23% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,710 yuan per ton, down 0.35% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,525 yuan per ton, with no change; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 6,900 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. Operating Conditions - As of September 23, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol was 62.62%, up 0.42 percentage points; the operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol was 65.72%, up 0.72 percentage points; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 58.14%, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the load rate of polyester factories in the PTA industrial chain was 89.00%, with no change; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.55%, with no change [1]. Cash Flow - As of September 22, 2025, the external - market cash flow of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $120.46 per ton, down from - $119.50 per ton; the external - market cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol was $137.90 per ton, up from $135.90 per ton [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the after - tax gross profit of MTO - based MEG was 1,518.45 yuan per ton, up 46.46 yuan per ton; the after - tax gross profit of coal - based MEG was 278.32 yuan per ton, down 59.73 yuan per ton [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, with the implementation of near - end TA maintenance, the start - up declined slightly, polyester load remained stable, inventory accumulated slightly, basis weakened, and spot processing fees repaired slightly. PX domestic start - up decreased, overseas devices ran smoothly, PXN weakened month - on - month, disproportionation and isomerization benefits remained stable, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia widened. In the future, as device restarts slow down TA de - stocking, polyester has no unexpected performance and new production is expected, the far - month inventory accumulation is expected to continue. However, the processing fees have reached a very low level and lasted for a long time, and PX supply is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees under potential additional maintenance [1]. - For MEG, near - end domestic oil - based EG slightly reduced its load, coal - based start - up remained stable, overseas maintenance and restarts coexisted, arrivals remained the same while shipments were dull, and port inventory accumulated slightly at the beginning of next week. Downstream stocking levels increased, the basis weakened month - on - month, and the benefit ratio shrank. Near - end new device feeding was earlier than expected, and the valuation was significantly compressed. In the future, with the increase in arrivals month - on - month and the expectation of high supply in the far - month, ports may start to gradually accumulate inventory, but the actual inventory is still not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up of some devices increased, and production and sales improved month - on - month, with inventory continuing to decline. On the demand side, the start - up of the polyester yarn end remained stable, raw material stocking increased, finished product inventory decreased month - on - month, and benefits were weak. In the future, the speed of increasing the load at the polyester yarn end may slow down due to high finished product inventory, but the start - up of staple fiber remains high due to good spot benefits, and inventory pressure is limited. Processing fees are expected to fluctuate [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber remained stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For styrene and its downstream products, the prices of some raw materials and products decreased, and the production profits and start - up rates of some products also changed to different degrees [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PTA - **Device Changes**: Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton device reduced its load, and Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device restarted [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The basis of the PTA main contract weakened, and the spot processing fee repaired slightly. PX domestic start - up decreased, and PXN weakened month - on - month [1]. - **Future Outlook**: Slowdown in TA de - stocking, far - month inventory accumulation expected, and attention to the opportunity of expanding processing fees [1]. MEG - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device stopped again [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Near - end domestic oil - based EG slightly reduced its load, and the basis weakened month - on - month [1]. - **Future Outlook**: Ports may gradually accumulate inventory, but actual inventory is not high, and attention to coal - based cost support [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device Changes**: Some devices increased their start - up, and production and sales improved [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Spot price was around 6390, and the market basis was around 10 + 10 [1]. - **Future Outlook**: The speed of increasing the load at the polyester yarn end may slow down, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [1]. Natural Rubber - **Market Conditions**: National explicit inventory remained stable, and Thai cup rubber price remained stable [1]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [1]. Styrene and Its Downstream Products - **Price Changes**: The prices of some raw materials and products such as ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene decreased [1]. - **Profit and Start - up Rate Changes**: The production profits and start - up rates of PS, EPS, and ABS changed to different degrees [1].

Core Viewpoint - Despite weak terminal demand leading to continuous price declines, PTA prices are not expected to drop significantly due to low processing fees and stable supply-demand fundamentals [1]. Group 1: Processing Fees and Production Costs - Processing fees for PTA have been compressed to a historical low of 130 yuan/ton, while the comprehensive production cost has reached 4500 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss of approximately 330 yuan per ton [2]. - Domestic PTA production enterprises have not significantly reduced their operating rates despite the losses. After a brief decline in mid-August, the operating rate has rebounded to 77.37% as of September 22, an increase of 3.89 percentage points year-on-year and 8.2 percentage points from the end of August [2]. - PTA production for the week ending September 18 was 1.4309 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 42,900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 47,000 tons, indicating that supply has largely returned to normal levels [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Supply Stability - As of September 22, PTA social inventory was 3.3091 million tons, a decrease of 0.73% week-on-week and significantly lower than the same period last year. The available days of PTA enterprise inventory have dropped to 3.8 days, a reduction of 0.81 days year-on-year [2]. - The available days of PTA inventory for downstream polyester enterprises have also decreased to 6.85 days, down 2.7 days year-on-year, suggesting limited inventory pressure [2]. Group 3: Terminal Demand and Market Sentiment - Despite being in the traditional peak season for inventory replenishment, the textile industry is experiencing weak demand, with the operating rate of the terminal weaving industry at 67%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The lack of terminal orders has dampened market confidence, leading to a cautious approach in raw material procurement across the supply chain, which is a primary reason for the pressure on chemical fiber product prices [4]. - Polyester enterprises are maintaining high operating rates, with the polyester operating load at 87.43% as of September 22, an increase of 1.95 percentage points year-on-year, although inventory levels for polyester products are rising due to low purchasing willingness [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing difficulties faced by PTA production enterprises have not yet led to a contraction in supply, but if low processing fees persist, the industry may adopt production limitation strategies to maintain prices [3].

Core Viewpoint - The leading company Xinxiang Chemical Fiber has initiated a price increase trend in the viscose filament industry, responding to supply constraints and policy support against "involution" [1][2]. Industry Overview - The viscose filament industry is undergoing consolidation, with only four major companies remaining, leading to a high concentration of production capacity. As of H1 2025, the total industry capacity is projected to be 27.5 million tons, with Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Jilin Chemical Fiber holding the majority [2]. - The viscose filament is derived from cellulose and is primarily used in high-end clothing and home textiles due to its desirable properties such as breathability and vibrant dyeing [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Xinxiang Chemical Fiber announced a maintenance shutdown of 31,200 tons of viscose filament capacity, representing approximately 11.35% of its total capacity, which is expected to compress industry supply [2]. - The demand for viscose filament is anticipated to increase during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with a rise in domestic orders for autumn and winter textiles [3]. Price Trends - As of September 22, the price of viscose filament was reported at 43,500 yuan per ton. The industry is expected to experience several rounds of price increases, potentially raising prices by 1,000 to 1,500 yuan per ton [4]. - The profit elasticity for Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Jilin Chemical Fiber from these price increases is estimated to be between 0.6-0.9 billion yuan and 0.8-1.1 billion yuan, respectively [4]. Investment Focus - Companies to watch include Xinxiang Chemical Fiber (000949.SZ) and Jilin Chemical Fiber (000420.SZ) due to their strong market positions and potential for profit growth amid rising prices [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, the ratings are as follows: - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating weakly [8] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating weakly [8] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating weakly [10] - **PX**: Oscillating weakly [12] - **PTA**: Oscillating weakly [13] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating weakly [14] - **Styrene**: Oscillating weakly [17] - **MEG**: Oscillating weakly [19] - **Short Fiber**: Oscillating weakly [22] - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating weakly [23] - **Methanol**: Short - term oscillation [26] - **Urea**: Oscillation [27] - **LLDPE**: Short - term oscillation [30] - **PP**: Short - term oscillation, weakly [32] - **PL**: Short - term oscillation, weakly [32] - **PVC**: Partial oscillation [35] - **Caustic Soda**: Medium - long - term partial oscillation [36] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil futures continued to decline on Monday. If the EU introduces strong sanctions, oil prices may fluctuate. Chemical prices also continued to fall, but some varieties with good fundamentals showed positive arbitrage signs. The energy and chemical industry as a whole will continue the pattern of oscillating consolidation [1][2][3]. - For each specific product, the prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and cost support, showing different trends of oscillation, weakening, or strengthening [7][8][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. In the context of OPEC+ accelerating production increase, the weak - reality pattern is reflected in inventory year - on - year. The resumption of oil exports from the Kurdish region in Iraq may improve the implementation rate of Iraq's production increase. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with risks mainly concentrated in the geopolitical area [7]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price oscillates below 3,500 yuan/ton. Saudi Arabia's push for OPEC+ to continue increasing production and geopolitical escalation offset the decline in demand. The pricing power of asphalt futures may return to Shandong. The current market expects high - start and low - inventory to digest production pressure, but the invisible inventory in South China is a concern [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price oscillates weakly. Saudi Arabia's push for OPEC+ to increase production, geopolitical escalation, and a significant increase in Russia's fuel oil exports in early September have led to a weakening of the fuel oil cracking spread. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to deteriorate [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate weakly. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It may face the trend of increased supply and decreased demand and maintain low - valuation operation [10]. - **PX**: Supply - demand margin weakens, cost has no obvious support, and processing fees are under pressure. Oil prices are weak, and the chemical market sentiment is poor. The delay of some PX device maintenance and the increase in downstream PTA device maintenance drag down PX demand to some extent [12]. - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, and there is no continuous positive in supply - demand. Cost performance is poor, and the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The downstream demand is affected by the National Day holiday, and there is no obvious positive support [13]. - **Pure Benzene**: The future outlook is still pessimistic, and the price returns to decline. Although there was a short - term boost at the beginning of the week, with the implementation of interest - rate cut benefits and the impact of news such as the delay of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the price declined. Before the end of the year, it is difficult to destock, especially with high import pressure in October [14]. - **Styrene**: There is insufficient fundamental positive, and the price resumes decline. The contradiction lies in the difficulty of destocking high inventories in the upstream and downstream. Although there is a destocking pattern from September to October, it has limited effect on the current high inventory, and it will return to the end - of - year inventory accumulation cycle from November to December [17]. - **MEG**: Before the festival, the port shipment performance is poor, and the port inventory accumulates. Cost support is not obvious, and the market sentiment is bearish. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally in the long - term [18]. - **Short Fiber**: Inventory is slightly destocked, and processing fees are firm. The support from upstream polyester raw materials is insufficient, and the absolute price mainly follows the raw materials to fluctuate. The processing fees have strengthened bottom support during the peak season [22]. - **Bottle Chip**: Low prices stimulate some factories to purchase, and processing fees operate stably. The cost support from upstream polyester raw materials is insufficient, and the absolute price oscillates and declines. However, due to its own limited driving force, the decline is limited, and processing fees expand passively [23]. - **Methanol**: There is still a certain stocking demand before the festival, and the methanol futures price oscillates and declines. The price of upstream manufacturers has decreased, but the low inventory level in the inland area and the stocking demand before the National Day support the market. There is a contradiction between high inventory pressure in the port in the near - term and the expected overseas shutdown in the far - term [26]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern of looseness is difficult to change, and the futures price is continuously under pressure along the cost line. On September 22, the supply - side daily output and operating rate continued to increase, while the demand - side support was insufficient, and the export expectation was weakening [27]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream transactions still increase in volume, and the price oscillates and declines. Affected by factors such as oil price oscillation, macro - atmosphere, and supply - demand situation, although the downstream demand may have certain support before the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the overall fundamental situation is still under pressure [30]. - **PP**: It oscillates and declines, and attention should be paid to the support strength at the previous low. Affected by oil price and macro - factors, it has reached near the low point in June, and there is still some support. Although there is some downstream restocking demand before the festival, the supply - side pressure still exists [31]. - **PL**: It follows PP to fluctuate and oscillates and declines in the short - term. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the willingness to further reduce prices is limited. The PP - PL spread oscillates around 500, and the volatility of PL may increase marginally [32]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment declines, and it should be treated with caution and weakly. At the macro - level, the market sentiment is prone to fluctuate. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamental situation is under pressure, and the cost increase slows down. The production may decline, the downstream demand improves, and the signing of orders improves [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Strong expectation but weak reality, and the futures price is partial to oscillation. At the macro - level, the market sentiment is prone to fluctuate. At the micro - level, the fundamental situation of caustic soda still has pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The inventory receipt volume of Weiqiao is high, and the purchase price has been lowered. However, the expected stocking of alumina for caustic soda in 2026Q1 is strong [36]. 3.2 Product Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring**: It shows the cross - period spreads, basis, and cross - product spreads of various products, reflecting the price relationships and changes among different products and different contract periods [38][39][40]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although specific data are not detailed in the summary part, it is expected to further analyze the basis and spread of various chemical products to provide references for market participants [41]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and sector index (energy index) show different trends of increase and decrease, reflecting the overall performance of the commodity market on September 22, 2025 [281][283].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the upcoming seasonal demand in the textile industry, particularly for viscose filament, driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" period, which is expected to lead to price increases [4]. - The report discusses the strategic move by Xinxiang Chemical Fiber to temporarily halt production for upgrades, affecting 31,200 tons per year of viscose filament capacity, which is approximately 11.35% of the industry total [4]. - The viscose filament industry is experiencing consolidation, with only four major players remaining, leading to a higher concentration of capacity and a greater likelihood of coordinated price increases [4]. - The report notes that the domestic demand for home textiles is increasing, with weaving enterprises' operating rates rising to 68.8%, and exports of viscose filament have also seen significant growth [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical industry has shown a performance increase of 0% to 51% from September 2024 to May 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3]. Industry Dynamics - The viscose filament production process is highlighted for its environmental impact, leading to industry consolidation and a focus on self-regulation among remaining players [4]. - The report indicates that the total industry capacity is 275,000 tons, with Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Jilin Chemical Fiber holding the majority of the market share [4]. Price Outlook - As of September 22, the price of viscose filament is reported at 43,500 yuan per ton, with expectations for multiple price increases driven by supply disruptions and seasonal demand [4]. - Potential profit elasticity for Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Jilin Chemical Fiber is estimated to be between 60 to 90 million yuan and 80 to 110 million yuan, respectively, with each price increase of 1,000 to 1,500 yuan per ton [4]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Jilin Chemical Fiber as key investment targets in the viscose filament sector [4].