Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Bottle Chip (PR)**: The market is expected to be in a weak oscillation pattern. With the approaching implementation of production cuts by leading factories, and considering factors such as high downstream domestic demand, reduced impact of freight on exports, and potential inventory reduction in July - August, it is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [8][9][10]. - **Staple Fiber (PF)**: The market will be in a short - term oscillation and face medium - term pressure. Although there are plans for production cuts and contract reductions in July, the implementation may be relatively weak due to less prominent profit and inventory pressure. It is also recommended to go long on PR and short on PF [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory Bottle Chip (PR) - **Valuation and Profit** - Aggregate cost has significantly increased, reaching around 6050 yuan/ton this week. Spot processing fees have recovered from 200 yuan/ton to the 270 - 300 yuan/ton range, and export profits have also improved, reaching about 700 - 720 yuan/ton [48]. - The bottle chip - slice spread has been at a historical low since 2024, and the short - fiber - bottle chip spread has compressed to a level similar to last year. The bottle chip - PVC spread is at a high level, and the substitution drive is low, while the bottle chip has a high cost - performance ratio compared to PP, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [27][28][29]. - **Fundamental Operation** - **Supply**: The total production capacity involved in production cuts by leading factories is about 2.4 million tons. This week, Huarun's three factories started production cuts, with an operating rate of 88%. Yisheng and Wankai will conduct maintenance in early July. The current effective production capacity has reached 21.68 million tons (CCF caliber), and this week's bottle chip load dropped to 88.7% [9][33]. - **Demand**: This week, the downstream operation remained stable. Beverage companies' device loads ranged from 80% - 95%, edible oil factories' average operation was around 60% - 80%, and the operation rate of sheet materials in East China was around 60% - 80% and in South China was around 40% - 60%. From January to May 2025, soft drink production increased by 3.0% year - on - year, and beverage product retail sales increased by 0.2% year - on - year. There are still many new beverage factory production lines to be put into operation this year [62][68][69]. - **Inventory**: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories remained stable. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories was about 17.6 days (CCF caliber). According to CCF data, the estimated social inventory in May was 2.93 million tons, 3.1 million tons in June, and 3.02 million tons in July. After the implementation of production cuts, it is expected to reduce inventory [53]. - **Device Changes**: Sanfangxiang has a total of 1.8 million tons of production capacity shut down. Huarun's polyester bottle chip devices in Changzhou, Jiangyin, and Zhuhai started to cut production by 20% on June 22, with a total reduction of 660,000 tons. Yisheng Hainan plans to shut down and overhaul 750,000 tons of production capacity on July 1, Yisheng Dahua plans to shut down and overhaul 350,000 tons of production capacity on July 1, and Chongqing Wankai plans to shut down and overhaul 600,000 tons of production capacity on July 1 [57]. - **Export**: From January to May, exports increased rapidly year - on - year. In May, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 742,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.6%. However, there was a situation of over - exporting in May, which may affect the actual export volume from June to July. Overseas bottle chip production capacity has increased little in recent years, and overseas downstream demand will increasingly rely on imports [81][82][78]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - In July - August, it is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Assuming that the large - scale production cut plan is implemented on schedule and lasts until August, and the downstream demand increases by 5% year - on - year compared to the peak season of last year, and the export demand is affected by freight in June - July but recovers in August, there may be a slight inventory reduction in July [93][94]. Staple Fiber (PF) - **Valuation and Profit** - The PF basis has maintained a stable oscillation, and the futures - spot structure remains in a backwardation structure. The disk processing fee has recovered [99][108]. - **Fundamental Operation** - **Supply**: The average load of direct - spinning staple fiber is 93.8%, and the operation rate of direct - spinning staple fiber for spinning is 97.1% (- 1%). Ningbo Zhuocheng has reduced the production of hollow staple fiber by 100 tons per day, and Sichuan Jixing's 200,000 - ton direct - spinning staple fiber device has been shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart in early July [113]. - **Demand**: The downstream polyester yarn operation rate has remained stable, but yarn replenishment is average, mainly consuming raw material inventory, and the finished product inventory has increased [133][135]. - **Inventory**: The downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the inventory accumulation continues [118]. - **Profit**: With the decline in cost, most profits have recovered, but polyester chips are still in a loss state [125].

Group 1 - The stock price of Dongfang Shenghong (000301) increased by 1.72% to 8.3 yuan as of June 27, 2025, with a market cap of 54.873 billion yuan [1] - The company has a complete industrial chain layout from "crude oil - aromatics, olefins - PTA, ethylene glycol - polyester new materials" [2][4] - The company reported a total profit and net profit of -3.714 billion yuan and -2.284 billion yuan for 2024, respectively, indicating a significant decline in profitability due to global economic slowdown [2][4] Group 2 - The company maintains a long-term credit rating of AA+ from United Ratings, with a stable outlook for its convertible bonds [2][4] - The company has a significant debt burden with rapidly increasing short-term debt and high financial expenses, impacting its overall debt repayment capacity [2] - The company has achieved substantial research and development results with 640 patents, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [2]

Group 1 - The core announcement is about the adjustment of the second phase of the share buyback plan by Jiangsu Shenghong Technology Co., Ltd. and its affiliates, aimed at incentivizing employees and protecting shareholder interests [1][2] - The second phase of the buyback plan was initially announced on March 11, 2022, and involved the purchase of 89,536,499 shares, representing 1.44% of the total share capital, with a total investment of 1.38 billion yuan [1][2] - The duration of the second phase buyback plan has been extended from 36 months to 60 months, allowing for early termination if the assets held are all monetary funds [2]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】 31号 【 一 国贸 期货 瓶片短纤数据日报 直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 涤纶短纤产销 31.00% 37.00% 6. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67.00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 14000 10000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始欲德 t T325年演出 (群贝) 解日示52E= 短规金流 ·1.4D直纺条短 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 -200 9000 + 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S价格与利润 中空短纤价格与现金流 25 ...

半年度报告-短纤 乐观预期纠偏，修复尚需时日 | 2025 27 日 | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | 年 | | | 6 月 | | | | 短纤：震荡 | ★供应：存量装置负荷提升，工厂周期性减产限制产量增长空间 上半年短纤新增产能 32 万吨/年，同比增长 3.4%，自 2024 年以来 短纤规划产能较少，在聚酯品种中供需格局相对健康。上半年存量 装置负荷显著提升，1-5 月产量同比增加 5.3%。下半年暂无兑现概 率较高的新产能投放计划，当前产量已基本反映了年内新投产能的 影响，且在加工费持续承压的情况下，工厂周期性减产或成为行业 新常态，这将进一步限制产量实际增长潜能。 能 ★需求：终端需求维持韧性，涤纱环节带来拖累 源 化 工 消费政策逐步显效，国内纺服需求温和增长。"抢出口"或提前透 支对美纺服出口需求，下半年纺服出口或环比回落，但中国对欧洲、 东盟等部分国家出口额保持较高增速，或继续弥补对美出口损失 量，下半年纺服出口预计尚能维持一定韧性。下游纱厂成品库存压 力较大，现金流持续亏损，对高价短纤接受能力偏弱，涤纱环节成 为拖累短纤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Red Boat Spirit" has been a guiding force for Jiaxing over the past 20 years, driving its development and innovation, and positioning it as a model for urban-rural integration and modernization in the Yangtze River Delta region [2][24]. Group 1: Economic Development - Jiaxing's government has achieved an average annual growth rate of 27.5% in technology investment over the past three years, ranking first in the province [1]. - The city's GDP is projected to reach 756.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 5.6% increase from the previous year [1]. - Rural residents' per capita income has historically surpassed 50,000 yuan, maintaining the highest level in Zhejiang province for 21 consecutive years [8]. Group 2: Innovation and Industry - Jiaxing has established 159 collective economic projects since 2013, contributing over 30% to the operating income of village collectives [5]. - The city has a high innovation index of 134.4, ranking second in Zhejiang, with R&D expenditure reaching 25.148 billion yuan, representing 3.56% of its GDP [8]. - Jiaxing has transformed into a hub for various industries, producing over half of the country's down jackets and becoming a major player in leather and chemical fiber production [7]. Group 3: Urban-Rural Integration - The urban-rural income ratio in Jiaxing stands at 1.51:1, making it one of the regions with the smallest urban-rural income gap in the country [8]. - The city has implemented a "flying land" model to consolidate low-efficiency land for industrial park development, enhancing rural economic vitality [5][12]. - Jiaxing has successfully integrated cultural and recreational facilities, such as libraries and art galleries, into a unified public service platform [5]. Group 4: Transportation and Connectivity - Jiaxing is enhancing its transportation infrastructure with over 80 billion yuan invested in comprehensive traffic projects in 2023, achieving 100% connectivity for key rural roads [8][20]. - The completion of the Tongsu-Jia-Ning high-speed rail will significantly reduce travel time to major cities, positioning Jiaxing as a central hub in the Yangtze River Delta [21][23]. - The upcoming Jiaxing Airport will further establish the city as a comprehensive transportation hub, integrating various modes of transport [23]. Group 5: Future Aspirations - Jiaxing aims to transition from being a supporting role in the Yangtze River Delta to becoming a proactive regional center, leveraging its innovative capabilities and industrial projects [18][24]. - The city is committed to high-quality development and efficient governance, seeking to explore a new path for urban modernization in China [24].

ITG 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 W FF fød 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la jat 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 涤纶短纤产销 27.00% 37.00% 10. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67.00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 14000 10000 10000 1800 T325加工费(右轴) t T325年演出版 (探贝) 太原始翁· 短规金流 ·1.4D直纺条短 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 -200 9000 + 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-0 ...

Group 1 - Chemical stocks experienced a rebound, with significant gains in sectors such as chemical fibers and organic silicon [1] - Youfu Co., Ltd. reached the daily limit increase, indicating strong market interest [1] - Other companies such as Jianghan New Materials, Suzhou Longjie, Hesheng Silicon Industry, and Jiuri New Materials saw increases exceeding 5% [1]

直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 涤纶短纤产销 53.00% 27.00% -26. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67.00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 14000 10000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始欲德 t T325年演出 (群炉) 图片员22日 短规金流 ·1.4D直线条短 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 -200 9000 + 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S价格与利润 中空短纤价格与现金流 2500 10000 22500 4000 泽梯少利润 泽棉纱65/35 45S 中空短 ...

-500 音烙橡胶呈报 图书 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/25 P 不 A = 点击 POY 1 仓单+有 石脑油 PX CFR |PTA内盘现 PTA平衡 PTA加 PTA负 石脑油裂 聚酯毛利 TA基美 50D/4 日期 原油 PX加工美 产销 工差 效预报 日本 台湾 न्ह 解价差 荷 负荷 8F 图H 2025/0 5190 7130 76.7 633 888 70.92 255.0 333 25 85.1 79.1 80807 330 0.55 6/18 2025/0 37684 78.9 643 904 5190 7120 64.66 261.0 247 -3 85.1 79.1 270 0.30 6/19 (图H 2025/0 7165 77.0 5275 81.77 -34 265 0.40 646 898 252.0 369 86. P 79.1 37020 6/20 2025/0 71.5 899 5260 7225 117.80 257.0 36600 275 642 350 38 86.1 79.1 0.55 6/23 2025/0 图H 67 1 586 5100 7225 ...