Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the livestock industry in China, with the China Livestock Breeding Index rising by 0.80% and key stocks such as Shengnong Development and Yisheng Shares showing significant gains [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated a meeting focused on the high-quality development of the pig industry, emphasizing the need to reduce production capacity, control operations, and lower weights, indicating a shift towards substantial capacity regulation [1] - According to招商证券, there is considerable room for efficiency optimization in China's pig farming industry compared to overseas counterparts, suggesting that leading companies may drive value extraction efforts over the coming years [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index account for 64.83% of the index, with notable companies including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Haida Group [2] - The Livestock ETF closely tracks the China Livestock Breeding Index, which includes listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of related companies [1]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated a meeting focused on the high-quality development of the pig industry, emphasizing the need to reduce production capacity, control operations, and lower the weight of pigs, marking a significant phase in capacity regulation [1][3]. Group 1: Production Capacity Management - The national target for the breeding sow inventory has been adjusted down by 1 million heads to alleviate supply surplus pressure [3]. - Measures include halting secondary fattening and controlling the market behavior to prevent excessive inventory [3]. - The target for the average slaughter weight is set around 120 kg to avoid overstocking and subsequent supply excess [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - As of July 30, the national average price of live pigs reached 6.98 yuan per jin, marking a new low for the year [5]. - Historical data indicates that if the breeding sow inventory decreases to 39 million heads, pig prices could rise by 11%-19% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, reflecting a price elasticity driven by supply improvements [7]. - The current valuation of the livestock sector is at a historical low, with the China Livestock Index at a price-to-book ratio of only 2.67, placing it in the 12th percentile historically [7]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Low cost is identified as the core competitive advantage for listed pig companies to navigate the pig cycle, with a focus on companies that excel in cost control or have clear cost-reduction pathways [1][8]. - The recovery of livestock inventory is expected to gradually boost demand for feed, while the approaching high temperatures will lead to a sales peak for aquatic feed [1][9]. - The Livestock ETF closely tracks the China Livestock Index, with over 60% of its components related to pig farming, and nearly 40% encompassing upstream and downstream sectors such as vaccines and feed [10][14].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Shennong Group has announced a share buyback plan, having repurchased approximately 6.58 million shares, which accounts for 1.25% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of about 180 million yuan as of July 31, 2025 [2] Group 2 - For the fiscal year 2024, Shennong Group's revenue composition is as follows: livestock farming accounts for 68.02%, pig slaughtering for 26.38%, feed processing for 5.24%, other businesses for 0.31%, and other categories for 0.06% [2]

Core Insights - The event held on July 30 showcased the significant achievements of Maying Town in resource integration and industrial fusion through innovative mechanisms [1][2] - The signing of four important cooperation agreements established a new win-win pattern among government, villages, and enterprises [2][3] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was attended by representatives from various government departments, enterprises, and village organizations, highlighting a collaborative approach to rural revitalization [1] - Key speakers discussed practical experiences in logistics, e-commerce, and industry chain extension, emphasizing the importance of collaboration [1] Group 2: Cooperation Agreements - A cold chain transportation cooperation agreement was signed between Jincheng Animal Husbandry and SF Express to facilitate efficient distribution of high-quality agricultural products [2] - A digital e-commerce live streaming base cooperation agreement was established with Donglizhuang Village to promote local agricultural products to a broader market [2] - Collaboration with Qingzhou Zhonghan Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. aims to explore new business models such as black pig-themed restaurants and deep processing of prepared dishes [2] - A "cross-village joint construction" cooperation agreement was signed with Zhaoba Village to further integrate resources and enhance collaborative development [2] Group 3: Future Directions - The signing of the agreements marks a new starting point for deepening cooperation, with a focus on sustaining the "Rural Revitalization Partner" mechanism and "cross-village joint construction" model [3] - The event is seen as a milestone in the construction process of the rural revitalization area, providing valuable experiences for regional revitalization efforts [3] - The implementation of these cooperation agreements is expected to create a strong synergy among enterprises, village collectives, and market entities, contributing to comprehensive rural revitalization [3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The pricing mechanism is determined by the long-term contract system, where the sales price for the next month is based on the last price index of the current month[10] 2. The model incorporates year-over-year changes in price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but it relies heavily on the accuracy of price and capacity factor inputs[10][14] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts the supply-demand gap for hogs six months in advance based on the relationship between sow inventory and hog slaughter rates[15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assumes a stable proportional relationship between quarterly hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months[15] 2. The formula for the slaughter coefficient is: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[15] 3. The potential supply and demand six months later are calculated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6)} $ $ \text{Potential Demand (t+6)} = \text{Hog Slaughter (t+6, Previous Year)} $[16] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical data shows that this model effectively identifies hog price upcycles, making it a valuable tool for forecasting[16] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[18] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model uses comprehensive steel prices and considers the costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel[18] 2. Monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability are calculated based on these inputs[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures the dynamics of the steel industry effectively, but its accuracy depends on the reliability of input data[23] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and designs allocation signals based on these changes[25] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability trends in the glass and cement industries[25] 2. It incorporates economic data such as manufacturing PMI and real estate sales to analyze potential infrastructure investment expectations[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of industry profitability and its drivers, but it is sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations[29] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates profit growth rates and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices and crude oil prices[30] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model calculates profit growth rates and cracking spreads using changes in fuel and crude oil prices[30] 2. Allocation signals are designed based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling activity[30] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the profitability dynamics of the refining industry, but its performance is influenced by oil price volatility[37] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The coal industry index achieved a cumulative excess return of 0.3% in July 2025[10] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The model predicts a potential supply of 18,249,000 hogs and a demand of 18,226,000 hogs for Q4 2025, indicating a roughly balanced market[17] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The model predicts positive year-over-year profit growth for July 2025, with improved per-ton profitability[23] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: The model indicates that glass industry gross profit remains in a year-over-year decline, but the rate of decline has narrowed[29] - **Cement Industry**: The model predicts a slight year-over-year profit growth for the cement industry in July 2025[29] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Profit Growth**: The model predicts slight year-over-year profit growth for the refining industry in July 2025[33] - **Oilfield Services**: The model observes that oil prices in July 2025 are lower than the previous year, with no significant change in new drilling activity[38]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the cattle inventory has dropped to a ten-year low, leading to a three-year upward cycle in beef prices, while raw milk prices have fallen below cost, triggering capacity reduction. Leading companies like Modern Farming are expected to see a profit turning point by 2025 [1] - The livestock industry is entering a deep adjustment period, where high-quality companies with low costs and strong capital chains will stand out, indicating long-term high-quality development potential [1][2] - The investment opportunities in the pig industry are primarily driven by policy measures aimed at controlling new production capacity, which will accelerate the exit of inefficient and high-cost producers, thereby supporting prices [2] Group 2 - The pig industry has entered a stable development phase characterized by "capacity reduction + strong players," with market share redistribution occurring among existing players as low-efficiency and high-cost production gradually gets eliminated [2] - The criteria for high-quality companies are becoming clearer, focusing on low-cost breeding capabilities and sufficient capital reserves to withstand policy changes or price fluctuations [2] - The China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) includes major companies in the livestock sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies involved in livestock feed, pharmaceuticals, and breeding [2][3] Group 3 - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index account for 64.83% of the index, including companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Haida Group [3]

公司最新资产负债率为42.35%。 2025年8月1日，益生股份(002458.SZ)发布2025年中报。 公司营业总收入为13.21亿元。归母净利润为615.51万元。经营活动现金净流入为1.43亿元。 公司最新总资产周转率为0.18次。最新存货周转率为2.91次，较去年同期存货周转率增加0.65次，同比较去年同期上涨29.10%。 公司股东户数为4.80万户，前十大股东持股数量为6.15亿股，占总股本比例为55.63%，前十大股东持股情况如下： | 序号 | 股东名称 | 持股 | | --- | --- | --- | | l | 曹积生 | 40.8. | | 2 | 深圳毕升私募证券基金管理有限公司-必胜年年升1号私募基金 | 3.37 | | 3 | 济南泰浩投资合伙企业(有限合伙) | 3.10 | | 4 | 迟汉东 | 2.52 | | 5 | 李玲 | 1.71 | | ଚି | 柳炳兰 | 0.97 | | 7 | 耿培梁 | 0.96 | | 8 | 浙商银行股份有限公司-国泰中证畜牧养殖交易型开放式指数证券投资基金 | 0.85 | | g | 李秀国 | 0.70 | | 10 | ...

2025年8月1日，益生股份(002458.SZ)发布2025年半年度报告。截至2025年7月31日，共有9个机构投资 者披露持有益生股份A股股份，合计持股量达8497.77万股，占益生股份总股本的7.68%。其中，机构投 资者包括深圳毕升私募证券基金管理有限公司-必胜年年升1号私募基金、济南泰浩投资合伙企业(有限 合伙)、浙商银行股份有限公司-国泰中证畜牧养殖交易型开放式指数证券投资基金、工银农业产业股 票、平安均衡优选1年持有混合A、平安估值精选混合A、平安安心灵活配置混合A、中银鑫利混合A、 中银颐利混合A，机构投资者合计持股比例达7.68%。相较于上一季度，机构持股比例合计下跌了1.33 个百分点。 外资态度来看，本期较上一季未再披露的外资机构即香港中央结算有限公司。 公募基金方面，本期较上一期持股增加的公募基金共计3个，包括国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF、工银农业产 业股票、平安估值精选混合A，持股增加占比达0.17%。本期较上一季度持股减少的公募基金共计2个， 包括平安均衡优选1年持有混合A、平安安心灵活配置混合A，持股减少占比小幅下跌。本期较上一季度 新披露的公募基金共计2个，包括中银鑫利混合A、中银颐 ...

直播间里，1700多只宁夏滩羊数小时内被抢购一空，单日销售额达226万元。这是宁夏宁羴源牛羊肉有限公司电商销售的日常缩影。 本期编辑：彭雅茹 作为国家高新技术企业，近年来，宁夏宁羴源依托"互联网+滩羊产业"模式，不仅登上抖音羊肉爆款榜双料冠军，更以科技赋能养殖、订单联结农户，铺 就了一条特色产业振兴之路。 7月30日，记者走进宁羴源公司车间看到，打包装箱、直播运营等环节正在紧张有序的运行，虽然还没有到滩羊销售的高峰期，但滩羊的销售量依然稳步 上升。据了解，宁羴源自2016年入驻淘宝、拼多多，2021年开启抖音直播后迎来爆发式增长。目前全网粉丝量达170万，累计订单超110万件，访问量突破 16亿人次。2021年直播首年销售额即突破8000万元，如今淡季日销稳定在20-30万元，9月起将进入持续半年的销售旺季，日销售额可达百万元量级。 企业创新构建"公司+基地+联合体+合作社+农户"机制，签约农户严格执行统一养殖标准，公司以高于市场价5%的价格订单收购。这套模式已带动220户养 殖户增收5600万元，科学配方的粗精饲料比例更显著提升了肉品出成率。 宁夏宁羴源牛羊肉有限公司常务副总杨纯玲介绍："宁羴源通过把控羊肉 ...

Group 1 - The China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Tianma Technology (603668) leading the gain at 0.91% and Jinhe Biology (002688) experiencing the largest decline [1] - The average price of live pigs is reported at 14.15 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.84%, while the average slaughter weight is 128.48 kg, down by 0.35 kg [1] - The agricultural team from Guojin indicates that the industry leaders are actively reducing weight, and there is limited price rebound expected at the beginning and end of the month, with ongoing pressure on prices due to group weight reductions [1] Group 2 - In the beef sector, live cattle prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations, currently at 26.49 yuan/kg, with a slight increase of 0.04% week-on-week, while frozen product prices are at 51.7 yuan/kg, down by 0.07% [2] - The raw milk price in major production areas is stable at 3.04 yuan/kg, with a notification for a future adjustment to 2.7 yuan/kg for bulk milk, indicating an overall improvement in supply and demand [2] - The livestock ETF closely tracks the China Livestock Breeding Index, which includes listed companies involved in feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of the livestock breeding sector [2] Group 3 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index account for 65.27% of the index, including Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others [3]