铁矿石：经贸会谈符合预期 矿价短期区间运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 铁矿石 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 价格：价格区间震荡偏强运行。i2509 合约价格区间 785 元/吨~810 元/吨。外盘 FE09 合约 价格区间 101~104 美金/吨。 逻辑：昨日成材增仓上行，焦煤触底回升，铁矿石价格相对平稳。中美第三轮经济贸易会 谈结果基本符合市场预期，美国对等关税（24%暂停）+基础关税（10%）以及我方反制关税措施 均展期 90 天，短期关税影响将进一步弱化。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, against the backdrop of improved macro - expectations and robust demand, iron ore prices showed a strong upward trend. The supply was relatively stable, with an increase in shipments mainly from Australia and a decrease in arrivals. The demand was firm, although the pig iron output decreased slightly this period. Considering the high profit per ton of steel, it may remain at a high level in the short term. There is a risk of a decline in pig iron output in the northern region in mid - to late August. In terms of valuation, after the narrowing of the basis of the main contract, the unilateral driving force has weakened, so it is not advisable to chase the rising price and participation should be cautious [8]. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Fundamental Analysis and Conclusion Price - In July, iron ore spot prices fluctuated and rebounded, with increases ranging from 60 - 85 yuan. For example, the price of Karara fines increased by 72 yuan, PB fines by 67 yuan, etc. As of July 25, the Platts 62% index closed at $102.6, up $2.4 week - on - week, equivalent to about 856 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.17. The optimal deliverable was NM fines, with a latest quote of about 775 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 800 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract was at par with the spot. The sub - optimal deliverable was brbf fines [5]. Inventory - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China increased compared to the previous period but was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 14,395.68 tons, an increase of 14 tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 1,215 tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 1,295 tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the port inventory at 47 ports may decrease slightly in the next period [5]. Supply - **Shipments**: The total global iron ore shipments in this period were 3,200.9 tons, an increase of 91.8 tons compared to the previous period. The total shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2,677.8 tons, an increase of 198.8 tons. Australian shipments were 1,793.5 tons, an increase of 222.3 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1,489.4 tons, an increase of 104.0 tons. Brazilian shipments were 884.3 tons, a decrease of 23.5 tons [6]. - **Arrivals**: From July 21 - 27, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,319.7 tons, a decrease of 192.1 tons compared to the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 2,240.5 tons, a decrease of 130.7 tons; and the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1,157.3 tons, a decrease of 231.9 tons [6]. Demand - The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly this period, with an average daily output of 242.23 tons/day, a decrease of 0.21 tons/day compared to last week. According to the blast furnace start - up and shutdown plan, the pig iron output may decline slightly in the next period. As of July 25, the long - process cash - inclusive cost of rebar in East China was 3,071 yuan, with a profit of about 328.82 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coil was about 329 yuan. In the electric furnace segment, the flat - rate electricity cost of the electric furnace in East China was about 3,359 yuan, and the valley - rate electricity cost was about 3,228 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar was about - 59 yuan, and the valley - rate electricity profit was 72 yuan [7]. Part 2: Data Sorting Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price - As of July 25, the optimal deliverable was Newman fines, with a converted warehouse receipt price of 800 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal deliverable was BRBF with a price of 810 yuan/ton [13]. Iron Ore Inter - period Spread - As of July 25, the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore closed at 29 (- 3) [16]. Iron Ore Import Profit No specific data analysis provided. High - and Low - grade Price Difference No specific data analysis provided. Premium Index - As of July 24, the premium index of 62.5% lump ore was 0.1765 (+ 0.0055), and the premium index of 65% pellet was 15 (+ 0.85) [26]. Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory - Various data on the inventory and premium (discount) of different brands of iron ore such as Mac fines, PB fines, etc. are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [28]. Steel Mill Sintered Fine Ore Inventory - As of July 25, the inventory of imported sintered fine ore of 64 sample steel mills was 1,293, a decrease of 62.0 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.03%. The inventory of domestic sintered fine ore was 8, a decrease of 0.7 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. The average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 1.0 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.00% [31]. Steel Mill Imported Ore Inventory, Consumption, and Inventory - to - Sales Ratio - As of July 25, the inventory of imported ore of steel mills was 8,885.2, an increase of 63.06 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. The daily consumption of imported ore was 301.1, a decrease of 0.15 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.05%. The inventory - to - sales ratio of imported ore was 29.5, an increase of 0.22 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.75% [33]. Port Inventory and Berthing Vessels - Various data on port inventory (including total inventory, Australian ore inventory, Brazilian ore inventory, etc.) and the number of berthing vessels at 45 ports are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [36]. Port Inventory by Ore Type - As of July 25, the inventory of imported port lump ore was 1,683, an increase of 87 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 5.47%. The inventory of imported port pellet ore was 390, a decrease of 29 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 6.93%. The inventory of imported port iron concentrate was 1,082, an increase of 1 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. The inventory of imported port coarse powder was 10,636, a decrease of 54 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.50% [39]. Port Ore Removal - The port ore removal data from 2020 - 2025 are presented in a table, showing the ore removal volume of each month in different years [42]. Iron Ore in Transit at Sea - The data on iron ore in transit at sea from 2022 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [45]. Iron Ore Import Quantity - The import volume data of iron ore from different countries (Australia, Brazil, South Africa, India, etc.) from 2020 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [48][49][50]. Australian Iron Ore Shipment Volume - As of July 25, the volume of Australian iron ore shipped to China was 1,489, an increase of 104 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 7.51%. The total Australian shipments were 1,794, an increase of 222.3 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 14.15%. The proportion of shipments to China was 83.04%, a decrease of 5.1% compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 5.82% [58]. Global Iron Ore Shipment No specific data analysis provided. Brazilian Iron Ore Shipment Volume - As of July 25, the volume of Brazilian iron ore shipped globally was 884, a decrease of 24 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 2.59% [65]. Shipments of the Four Major Mines - As of July 25, the shipment volume of Rio Tinto was 490, an increase of 33 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 7.15%. The shipment volume of BHP was 496, an increase of 36 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 7.89%. The shipment volume of Vale was 639, a decrease of 47 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 6.83%. The shipment volume of FMG was 364, an increase of 85 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 30.43%. The total shipment volume of the four major mines was 1,989, an increase of 107 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 5.69% [66]. Iron Ore Arrivals - As of July 25, the arrivals at 45 ports were 2,241, a decrease of 131 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 5.5%. The arrivals at northern ports were 1,157, a decrease of 232 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 16.7% [73]. Freight Rates - The freight rate data of iron ore from Brazil's Tubarao to Qingdao (BCI - C3) and from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) from 2020 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [75]. Domestic Iron Ore Production (Estimated) - The estimated domestic iron ore production data from 2017 - 2025 are presented in a table, showing the production volume of each month in different years [77]. Steel Mill Fine Ore Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization - As of July 25, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.8, a decrease of 0.08 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.09%. The average daily pig iron output was 242.2, a decrease of 0.21 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.09%. The daily consumption of imported sintered fine ore was 59.1, an increase of 0.88 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 1.51%. The daily consumption of domestic sintered fine ore was 8.4, an increase of 0.04 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.48% [79]. Pig Iron Production - The daily pig iron production data from 2016 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts and tables, including the data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association. The year - on - year growth rate of 2024 compared to 2023 and 2025 compared to 2024 are also provided [86]. Global Pig Iron Production - The pig iron production data of different regions (EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, etc.) and the global total from 2020 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [89]. Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production - As of July 25, the pig iron production data of regions outside China from 2017 - 2025 are presented in a table, including the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern has changed. Steel mills' production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has started to decline. However, steel mills' profitability is good, and there is still resilience in ore demand, which supports the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased month - on - month, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound. The supply of ore is expected to increase due to the continuous increase in overseas miners' shipments and the recovery of domestic ore production. The ore price has stopped falling and rebounded again, but the market fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the upward driving force is limited. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and the performance of finished products should be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating with a slight upward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the MA10 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is stable, and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mills' production is weakly stable, and ore terminal consumption is falling. But steel mills' good profitability provides support for ore demand. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased, but it will rebound according to shipping schedules. Overseas miners' shipments are increasing, and domestic ore production is recovering, so the ore supply is expected to rise. The ore price has rebounded due to demand resilience and improved market sentiment, but the fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the upward drive is limited. The ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the performance of finished products should be noted [3]

Group 1: Spot Market Data - Newman powder's latest price is 778, with a daily change of 13 and a weekly change of -15, and its import profit is -21.92 [1] - PB powder's latest price is 781, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of -17, and its import profit is -2.23 [1] - Mac powder's latest price is 767, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of -11, and its import profit is 3.20 [1] - Jimbobara's latest price is 754, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of -14, and its import profit is 7.77 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder's latest price is 710, with a daily change of 8 and a weekly change of -18, and its import profit is 2.75 [1] - Super special powder's latest price is 657, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of -16, and its import profit is -5.92 [1] - Carajás powder's latest price is 883, with a daily change of 17 and a weekly change of -15, and its import profit is -15.22 [1] - Brazilian blended ore's latest price is 803, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of -26, and its import profit is -11.45 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6's latest price is 771, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of -17 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG's latest price is 776, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of -17 [1] - Ukrainian fine powder's latest price is 867, with a daily change of 9 and a weekly change of -18 [1] - 61% Indian powder's latest price is 743, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of -14 [1] - Karara fine powder's latest price is 865, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of -20 [1] - Roy Hill powder's latest price is 751, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of -17, and its import profit is 2.66 [1] - KUMBA powder's latest price is 841, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of -17 [1] - 57% Indian powder's latest price is 602, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -26 [1] - Atlas powder's latest price is 705, with a daily change of 8 and a weekly change of -18 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate powder's latest price is 929, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of -3 [1] Group 2: Futures Market Data - i2601's latest price is 770.5, with a daily change of 13.5 and a weekly change of -23.0, and its monthly spread is 27.5 [1] - i2605's latest price is 749.0, with a daily change of 11.0 and a weekly change of -21.5, and its monthly spread is 21.5 [1] - i2509's latest price is 798.0, with a daily change of 12.0 and a weekly change of -25.0, and its monthly spread is -49.0 [1] - FE01's latest price is 99.22, with a daily change of -2.31 and a weekly change of -2.43, and its monthly spread is 1.57 [1] - FE05's latest price is 97.04, with a daily change of -2.15 and a weekly change of -2.43, and its monthly spread is 2.18 [1] - FE09's latest price is 100.79, with a daily change of -2.50 and a weekly change of -2.77, and its monthly spread is -3.75 [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Daily Report - Report Date: July 29, 2025 - Report Author: Commodity Research Institute, Black Research and Development Report [1][2] Core Data Futures Prices - DCE01: 770.5, up 13.5 from yesterday; DCE05: 749.0, up 11.0; DCE09: 798.0, up 12.0 [3] - I01 - I05: 21.5, up 2.5; I05 - I09: -49.0, down 1.0; I09 - I01: 27.5, down 1.5 [3] Spot Prices - PB powder: 770, down 12 from the day before yesterday; Newman powder: 766, down 11; Mac powder: 756, down 10 [3] - The optimal deliverable is PB powder, with a standard - converted price of 811, 01 - factory - warehouse basis of 46, 05 - factory - warehouse basis of 65, and 09 - factory - warehouse basis of 17 [3] Price Spreads - Spot variety spreads: e.g., Carajás fines - PB powder: 99, down 1; Newman powder - Jinbuba powder: 23, down 1 [3] - Import profits: e.g., Carajás fines: -4, up 4; Newman powder: 10, up 9 [3] Indexes - Platts 62% iron ore price: 100.1, down 2.5; Platts 65% iron ore price: 114.6, down 2.2; Platts 58% iron ore price: 87.4, down 2.1 [3] - Inner - outer market US - dollar spreads: e.g., SGX main - DCE01: 8.8, down 0.6; SGX main - DCE05: 11.2, down 0.8; SGX main - DCE09: 5.2, down 0.4 [3] Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing data such as the basis of the optimal deliverable against different contracts, cross - period arbitrage spreads, import profits of different iron ore varieties, price spreads between different iron ore products, and inner - outer market US - dollar spreads [8][9][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The report focuses on the production and sales of the world's four major iron ore mines in the second quarter of 2025, presenting historical production and sales data of VALE, Rio Tinto, BHP, and FMG through multiple charts. 3. Summary by Company VALE - Charts show production and sales statistics, including overall production and sales, sales of different products (powder and pellets), production of the S11D mining area, and regional production proportion [6][11][12]. Rio Tinto - Charts display production and sales data, production and sales of PB powder, and production and sales proportions of different products [15][16][18]. BHP - Charts present production and sales data and production proportions of different mining areas [21][22]. FMG - Charts show production and sales data and the production of the Iron Bridge project [25][29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rebar**: The main contract price rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 1.98%. Although the steel market sentiment improved due to production - restriction disturbances, the fundamentals of rebar did not improve substantially under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The upward driving force is questionable, but the low - inventory situation means the current contradictions are not significant. It is expected that the rebar price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to domestic and foreign macro - policies [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price strengthened again, with a daily increase of 2.01%. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both weakened, the fundamentals deteriorated slightly, and the inventory increased slightly. However, the overall contradictions are not large, and the cost has increased significantly. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price oscillated upward, with a daily increase of 0.63%. The demand for iron ore has good resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the supply is expected to increase, the fundamentals of the iron ore market will change, and the market sentiment is weakening. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to adjust in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **CMI Index**: In July 2025, the CMI index was 100.73, a year - on - year increase of 5.54% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.20%. The domestic construction machinery market continued to improve year - on - year, but the sales in the terminal market in July were slightly weaker than in June. The construction situation improved, and the regional markets were further differentiated [6]. - **Three Major White Goods Production Scheduling**: In August 2025, the total production scheduling of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Among them, the production scheduling of household air conditioners decreased by 2.8%, refrigerators by 9.5%, and washing machines by 3.0% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [7]. - **Brazilian Investment in Iron Ore Project**: Brazil's J&F Group plans to invest more than $700 million in its iron ore subsidiary LHG Mining to expand production capacity, improve the logistics system, and promote a greener supply layout of steel raw materials. The annual production capacity of the Urucum mine is planned to increase from 12 million tons to 25 million tons [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet are provided, along with price changes. For example, the national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) is 3,437 yuan, with a change of 16 yuan; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) is 3,504 yuan, with a change of 24 yuan [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate, and relevant indices such as the SGX swap and the Platts index are presented, along with their price changes. For instance, the price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 780 yuan, with a change of 10 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar active contract is 3,347 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.98%. The trading volume is 2,711,612 lots, a decrease of 703,101 lots, and the open interest is 2,175,237 lots, an increase of 239,356 lots [13]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil active contract is 3,503 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.01%. The trading volume is 1,006,596 lots, a decrease of 249,080 lots, and the open interest is 1,612,699 lots, an increase of 131,532 lots [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore active contract is 798.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.63%. The trading volume is 330,523 lots, a decrease of 200,933 lots, and the open interest is 482,200 lots, a decrease of 7,237 lots [13]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, providing historical data from 2021 - 2025 [16][18][22][23]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron concentrate, including inventory changes and seasonal data [21][25][26][28]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29][31][32][34]. 3.5后市研判 - **Rebar**: The supply of rebar has increased slightly, and the demand has improved. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is questionable. It is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to macro - policies [37]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have both weakened. The fundamentals have deteriorated slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore has good resilience, but the supply is expected to increase. The fundamentals of the iron ore market will change, and it is expected to continue to adjust in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to continue the high - level oscillatory adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2] - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term trend is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is strongly oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is strongly oscillatory. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that the demand has good resilience and the ore price oscillates at a high level [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. During the off - season, steel mill production is stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has slightly declined from a high level. Steel mills' profitability is good, and the demand for ore has resilience, supporting the ore price. The arrival at domestic ports has been decreasing, but the reduction space is limited. Overseas miners' shipments are increasing, and they are more active in shipping at high prices. Coupled with the recovery of domestic ore production, the supply of ore is expected to increase. The demand resilience can support the ore price, but the expected increase in supply, the changing fundamentals of the ore market, and the weakening market sentiment will lead to the high - level oscillatory adjustment of the ore price [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has cooled significantly, and the prices of finished products have started to correct. The cost side has collapsed notably. Export volume has dropped significantly this week due to the recent rapid price increase [2]. - The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coils are weak. Rebar has seen increased speculative demand and inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coils have experienced a slight decline in demand and inventory accumulation. Their inventories are at a five - year low. The market may return to real - world trading, and future market trends depend on policy signals, terminal demand recovery, and cost support [2]. - For iron ore, short - term prices may adjust. The market should focus on the inflection point of sentiment and pay attention to the policies of the important meeting in July [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term price fluctuations are large, and speculative positions are advised to wait and see. In the long - term, they face the risk of weakening demand. Enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin safety [8][9]. - For industrial silicon, prices are expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation phase, and it is recommended to wait and see. The industry still faces over - supply and insufficient demand [11]. - For glass and soda ash, prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, glass prices depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments, while soda ash has fundamental supply - demand contradictions, and short - term waiting and long - term short - selling opportunities are recommended [14][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton (-3.21%) from the previous trading day. Registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3587 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 62,771 lots. In the spot market, prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3397 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-3.13%). Registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract positions decreased by 73,396 lots. In the spot market, prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2509) closed at 786.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.06% (-16.50), and positions decreased by 39,554 lots to 489,400 lots. The weighted position was 979,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.02 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.91% [4]. - Overseas iron ore shipments continued to rise, with an increase in Australian shipments led by FMG, a slight decline in Brazilian shipments, and non - mainstream shipments at a low level. Daily molten iron production was 242.23 tons, slightly down. Port and steel mill inventories increased slightly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On July 28, the main manganese silicon contract (SM509) closed down 6.02% at 6028 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF509) closed down 5.29% at 5840 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a premium to the futures price [7][8]. - In the short - term, the "anti - involution" and supply - side reform expectations drove up prices, but after the sharp rise of coking coal, prices may have reached an inflection point. In the long - term, they face weakening demand [8][9]. Industrial Silicon - On July 28, the main industrial silicon contract (SI2509) closed down 8.33% at 8915 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China decreased, with the 553 having a premium and the 421 having a discount to the futures price [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 9 yuan, and in Central China increased by 40 yuan. The total inventory of national float glass enterprises decreased by 4.69% month - on - month. The market may oscillate in the short - term and follow macro - sentiment in the long - term [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 120 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 4.34%. Supply decreased due to increased maintenance, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term with fundamental contradictions in the long - term [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the concentrated release of positive sentiment last week, the market cooled down this week. Attention should be paid to tariff disturbances around August 1st and the messages released by the Politburo meeting. The five major steel products had a slight reduction in inventory. Rebar had both increased production and demand, and the apparent demand had a significant increase supported by the recovery of speculative demand, leading to a reduction in total inventory again. The decline in the apparent demand of hot-rolled coils was greater than the reduction in production, and the total inventory increased slightly, but the overall inventory accumulation was limited. Currently, the inventory contradiction of finished products was not prominent, and the core of off-season trading remained focused on macro - policy expectations. After the previous concentrated release of benefits, steel prices faced pressure at high levels, and with the pressure decline of coking coal at the raw material end, the cost decreased, and the black series was under pressure, showing a short - term weak and volatile operation [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil had a phased recovery, and the arrival volume was still in a downward process. The daily output of hot metal decreased slightly but was still at a high level year - on - year, and the port clearance volume decreased slightly. The port inventory was stable without obvious inventory accumulation pressure. In the medium term, there was still an expectation of an increase in overseas shipments of iron ore in the second half of the year. After the digestion of the macro - positive sentiment last week, iron ore faced pressure at high levels and the pressure of a decline this week [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the domestic mine production was stable. With the acceleration of market transactions, the inventory pressure was relieved. Coking enterprises were in a loss state due to cost pressure, and some low - inventory coking enterprises limited production to support prices. The increase in coke prices had been launched for four rounds. After multiple limit - up of coking coal, the Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit of coking coal futures, and short - term prices faced the pressure of a decline [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Macro - sentiment recovery and rising raw material costs led to steel prices reaching new highs. The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all increased. The positions of the top 20 long and short holders in futures contracts decreased. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different changes, and the price differences also changed. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The market trading core was concentrated on macro - policy expectations and raw material price fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly output was 211.96 tons (up 1.39% month - on - month, down 2.18% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output was 317.49 tons (down 1.14% month - on - month, down 3.27% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increased, and electric furnace output decreased [15][17]. - **Operating Rate**: The national blast furnace operating rate was 83.46% (unchanged month - on - month, up 1.00% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 72.02% (up 10.66% month - on - month, up 10.36% year - on - year) [27]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit was + 282 yuan/ton (up 64.91% week - on - week, up 362 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 146 yuan/ton (up 78.77% week - on - week, up 307 yuan/ton year - on - year) [31]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 216.58 tons (up 5.05% month - on - month, up 0.45% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 315.24 tons (down 2.64% month - on - month, down 1.86% year - on - year) [35][37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 538.64 tons (down 0.85% month - on - month, down 29.15% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 345.16 tons (up 0.66% month - on - month, down 19.76% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 4.24% month - on - month and decreased by 16.60% year - on - year. The weekly land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 14.31% month - on - month and decreased by 45.13% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, up 5.5% and 8.1% month - on - month, and up 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 104 (up 4.16% month - on - month, up 1.75% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2677.8 tons (up 8.02% month - on - month, up 7.65% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2240.5 tons (down 5.51% month - on - month, up 22.97% year - on - year) [59]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 242.33 tons (down 0.21 tons month - on - month, up 2.62 tons year - on - year), the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 315.15 tons (down 2.35% month - on - month, up 0.45% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.51 days (up 0.75% month - on - month, down 5.84% year - on - year) [64]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 13790.38 tons (up 0.04% month - on - month, down 8.61% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8885.22 tons (up 0.71% month - on - month, down 3.47% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.51 days (up 2.48% month - on - month, up 13.36% year - on - year) [70]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.9% (up 0.96% month - on - month, down 4.37% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal washing plants was 62.31% (down 0.86% month - on - month, down 9.14% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 154400 tons (up 21.57% month - on - month, down 2.72% year - on - year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 54 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton month - on - month, down 97 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.45% (up 0.60% month - on - month, down 0.90% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 86.97% [84]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 841.27 tons (up 6.46% month - on - month, up 11.57% year - on - year), the steel mill coking coal inventory was 799.34 tons (up 1.06% month - on - month, up 7.10% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 292.34 tons (down 9.07% month - on - month, up 5.73% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 50.12 tons (down 9.78% month - on - month, up 42.35% year - on - year), the steel mill coke inventory was 639.98 tons (up 0.15% month - on - month, up 17.86% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 198.13 tons (down 0.49% month - on - month, up 0.20% year - on - year) [90][96]. - **Spot Price**: Coke started the fourth round of price increases [97]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both contracted, and the 10 - 01 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils fluctuated narrowly. The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore and the coil - to - rebar spread both decreased slightly [104][110].