Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In October, the manufacturing PMI continued to be below the boom - bust line for the seventh consecutive month, with a larger - than - seasonal decline due to holiday disruptions and external factors. The new export order index was affected by trade frictions but is expected to rebound in November. The service industry's business activity index showed a mild expansion, and the new policy - based financial instruments are expected to promote economic development [2][3][10]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Manufacturing Industry - **Overall PMI**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.8% in the previous month. The decline had some seasonal factors but was larger due to holiday and external impacts. Large - scale enterprises' PMI dropped below the boom - bust line after 5 - month expansion, medium - sized enterprises remained stable, and small - sized enterprises faced greater pressure [2][5]. - **Production and Demand**: The production index was 49.7% (previous 51.9%), and the new order index was 48.8% (previous 49.7%), indicating a slowdown in production and a decline in market demand. The new export order index was 45.9% (previous 47.8%), pulling down the overall new order index. It is expected to rebound in November due to Sino - US trade talks [2][5][6]. - **Industry Performance**: New - energy - related industries such as equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing remained in the expansion range. The basic raw material industry's PMI continued to decline. Some industries like农副 food processing and automotive were active, while others like textile and chemical fiber had weak supply and demand [2][5]. - **Price and Inventory**: The main raw material purchase price index was 52.5% (previous 53.2%), and the ex - factory price index was 47.5% (previous 48.2%), squeezing corporate profits. The raw material inventory index was 47.3% (previous 48.5%), and the finished - product inventory index was 48.1% (previous 48.2%), showing cautious inventory increase [3][6][7]. - **Employment and Expectation**: The manufacturing employment index was 48.3% (previous 48.5%), with little change. The production and business activity expectation index was 52.8% (previous 54.1%), with a slight decline in expectations [8]. Non - manufacturing Industry - **Overall Non - manufacturing**: In October, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up slightly from 50.0% in the previous month [4][8]. - **Construction Industry**: The construction business activity index was 49.1% (previous 49.3%), with a slight decline. The new order index was 45.9% (previous 42.2%), and the employment index was 39.9% (previous 39.7%). The business activity expectation index was 56.0% (previous 52.4%). The real - estate market continued to drag down the construction industry [8]. - **Service Industry**: The service business activity index was 50.2% (previous 50.1%), showing a mild expansion. The new order index was 46.0% (previous 46.7%), the employment index was 46.1% (previous 45.9%), and the business activity expectation index was 56.1% (previous 56.3%). Some industries like railway and aviation were in a high - level boom range, while insurance and real - estate were weak [9]. Policy Impact As of the end of October, 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments were fully invested, and the supported projects are expected to be implemented intensively from October to December, driving over 7 trillion yuan in total project investment and promoting economic development [4][10].

Manufacturing PMI Overview - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][17] - The PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises was 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1%, respectively, all below the critical point [1][18] - The production index was 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, signaling a slowdown in manufacturing production [2][18] - The new orders index was 48.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, reflecting a drop in market demand [3][18] - The raw materials inventory index was 47.3%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating a continued reduction in inventory levels [4][18] - The employment index was 48.3%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, suggesting a minor decline in employment levels within the manufacturing sector [5][18] Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [6][17] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, showing a slight recovery in service sector activity [6][20] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.0%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating weak market demand [6][20] - The input prices index was 49.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a narrowing decline in input prices for non-manufacturing businesses [6][20] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a minor improvement in employment conditions [7][20] Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, indicating overall stability in production and business activities [8][21] - The manufacturing production index was 49.7%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, contributing to the composite index's position at the critical point [21]

Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating resilience and vitality in the economy [2] - The nine key cities under observation are making solid progress on the path of high-quality development, with overall economic performance showing steady improvement [2] City Performance - Shanghai's GDP surpassed 40 trillion yuan for the first time, with a total of 40,721.17 billion yuan, followed by Beijing at 38,415.9 billion yuan and Shenzhen at 27,896.44 billion yuan [2] - Chengdu led the key cities with a growth rate of 5.8%, while Wuhan and Chongqing recorded growth rates of 5.6% and 5.3%, respectively [3] Consumption Trends - Chongqing has maintained its position as the "Consumption First City," surpassing Shanghai in social retail sales by 180.23 billion yuan in the first three quarters [6] - The restaurant sector in Chongqing achieved a revenue of 1,857.61 billion yuan, growing by 5.4%, with significant increases in retail sales of wearable devices and high-efficiency appliances [6] Service Sector Contribution - The service sector in the nine key cities has shown significant growth, with value-added services outpacing GDP growth, becoming the main engine of urban economic growth [7] - In Beijing, the information transmission, software, and IT services sector grew by 11.2%, while financial services increased by 9.0%, contributing nearly 80% to the growth of the tertiary sector [7] Industrial Growth - The industrial economy is stabilizing, with significant growth in equipment manufacturing, particularly in cities like Shenzhen and Beijing [9] - High-tech products have seen explosive growth, with Beijing's strategic emerging industries and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 17.9% and 9.9%, respectively [9] Investment and Infrastructure - Investment in fixed assets is expanding in various cities, with infrastructure investment in Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Chongqing growing by 12.8%, 11.7%, 6.2%, and 5.0%, respectively [12] - The "old for new" policy has positively impacted retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment, with Shenzhen seeing significant growth in these categories [12] Export Dynamics - Shenzhen's export performance remains strong despite a 4.7% year-on-year decline due to high base effects from the previous year [13] - Shanghai's total export value increased by 11.3%, with significant contributions from integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence sectors [13]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) expresses confidence and capability to achieve the annual economic and social development goals, supported by solid performance in the first three quarters of the year [1][3]. Economic Performance - GDP growth for the first three quarters is reported at 5.2%, maintaining a leading position among major global economies [1]. - Social retail sales increased by 4.5%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1]. - Industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.2%, marking the highest growth for the same period since 2022 [1]. Innovation and Industry Growth - China's innovation index has entered the global top ten, bolstering the development of emerging industries [1]. - The added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.7% and 9.6%, respectively, with their shares in large-scale industrial output rising by 2.1 and 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The semiconductor and smart device manufacturing sectors saw significant growth, with added values increasing by 22.4% and 12.2% [1]. Quality and Efficiency - Improvements in product prices and corporate profits are noted, with industrial enterprise profits rising by 3.2% year-on-year, and a notable 21.6% increase in September alone [2]. Resilience and Export Performance - Despite external pressures, merchandise exports maintained a growth rate of 7.1%, with high-tech and high-value-added products gaining wider recognition [2]. - Exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative grew by 12.4%, and exports to ASEAN countries have seen an increase for eight consecutive months [2]. Consumer Demand and Structural Upgrades - Consumer demand is highlighted by a 5.2% increase in service retail sales, driven by popular events such as sports and concerts [2]. - The number of inbound tourists surged by 17.8% in the first three quarters, reflecting the impact of visa-free policies [2]. - Strong trends towards high-end, green, and intelligent development are observed, with rapid growth in related product outputs [2]. Future Outlook - International economic organizations have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 [3]. - The NDRC plans to enhance policy research and timely implementation to ensure the achievement of annual goals [3].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In October 2025, China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from September, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[2] - The production index dropped significantly by 2.2 percentage points to 49.7%, marking its first entry into the contraction zone since April[3] - The new orders index declined by 0.9 percentage points to 48.8%, reflecting weakened market demand due to seasonal factors and reduced policy impact[4] Economic Policy and Investment - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools was fully deployed by the end of October, aimed at accelerating infrastructure investment[5] - An additional 500 billion yuan in local government debt was arranged to address existing debt and expand effective investment, indicating a strong focus on stabilizing growth[6] - The anticipated outcomes of the new round of Sino-U.S. trade talks are expected to bolster market confidence, despite ongoing external pressures[6] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 50.5%, despite a decline of 1.1 percentage points, supported by strong market demand and policy backing[7] - The service sector PMI rose slightly to 50.2%, driven by increased tourism during the extended holiday period, although overall consumer spending remains weak[8] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, continuing a contraction trend due to cooling real estate markets, although civil engineering activity showed signs of improvement[9] Future Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is projected to rebound to approximately 49.4% in November, influenced by seasonal factors and the impact of recent economic policies[10] - The overall economic climate is expected to depend heavily on the effectiveness and timing of growth-stabilizing policies leading up to the end of the year[10]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing are at 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, reflecting declines of 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points compared to last month [5] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 49.9%, while medium and small enterprises are at 48.7% and 47.1%, respectively, showing varying degrees of decline in economic sentiment [5] Group 2: Key Industries - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries have PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1%, respectively, indicating continued expansion and support for the overall manufacturing sector [5] - High-energy-consuming industries have a PMI of 47.3%, down 0.2 percentage points, suggesting a decline in economic activity within this sector [5] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1][6] - The service sector's business activity index is reported at 50.2%, reflecting a slight increase and improved economic conditions in service-related industries [9] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 49.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a slight contraction in construction activities [10] Group 4: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 52.8%, indicating a generally optimistic outlook among manufacturers [6] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector is at 56.1%, suggesting strong confidence in future industry performance [10] - Overall, the non-manufacturing sector shows signs of stability, with positive changes in investment and consumption-related activities [11]

Core Insights - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector in October is reported at 49%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal factors and external conditions [1][2] - Despite the decline in PMI, new momentum and consumer goods manufacturing are showing steady growth, with key sectors like equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing remaining in the expansion zone [2][4] Manufacturing Sector - The equipment manufacturing price index reached a new high since June 2024, while the high-tech manufacturing price index hit a new high since 2025, indicating positive price changes in the manufacturing sector [4] - The production index and new orders index for key manufacturing sectors are operating around 51%, reflecting a stable expansion [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for October is at 50.1%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, maintaining levels above 50 since 2025 [7] - The service sector shows strong performance, particularly in contact-based services related to travel, shopping, and entertainment, with indices for railway and air transport exceeding 60% [6] Investment and Economic Outlook - There are signs of accelerated construction activities related to infrastructure investment, with the civil engineering business activity index rising above 55%, and new orders index increasing to over 49% [9] - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing is at 56.1%, indicating a positive outlook for the sector, supported by fiscal and monetary policy collaboration [9]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in October decreased to 49.0%, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity after two months of growth, influenced by pre-holiday demand release and a complex international environment [2][3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing production index fell to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in production activities [6] - New export orders index dropped to 45.9%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points, marking the second-lowest point this year, reflecting tightened export demand across major manufacturing sectors [7][8] - Large enterprises' PMI decreased to 49.9%, while medium and small enterprises saw PMIs of 48.7% and 47.1%, respectively, indicating varying levels of operational pressure across different enterprise sizes [10] Price Trends - The manufacturing sector experienced positive price changes, with the equipment manufacturing purchase price index and factory price index both rising for three consecutive months, reaching a new high since June 2024 [9][11] - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a decrease in purchase price index by 2.5 percentage points, indicating reduced cost pressures and stabilizing sales prices, which is beneficial for profit margins [11] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, indicating expansion, with significant activity in sectors related to consumer travel and services due to holiday effects [14] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector remained high at 56.1%, reflecting strong confidence among service enterprises regarding future development [14]

Core Viewpoint - In October, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, while the non-manufacturing business activity index rose slightly to 50.1%, suggesting stability in the overall economy [1][3]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, ending a two-month upward trend, with all 13 sub-indices showing declines ranging from 0.1 to 2.6 percentage points [3]. - The manufacturing production index dropped to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a shift from expansion to contraction, although it remains close to the neutral level of 50% [3]. - Factors contributing to the slowdown include pre-holiday demand release and increased international trade uncertainties, leading to cautious production intentions among manufacturers [3][4]. Demand and Export Trends - The new export orders index fell to 45.9%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points, marking the second-lowest point this year, primarily due to global economic pressures and trade uncertainties [4]. - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing, which are crucial for exports, experienced significant tightening in new orders, impacting overall market demand [4][6]. Key Industries Performance - Despite the challenges, the three key industries—high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing—maintained PMIs above 50, indicating continued expansion [6][7]. - The production and new orders indices for these sectors hovered around 51%, reflecting stable growth supported by domestic market strength and effective policy measures [7]. Price Trends and Cost Pressures - In October, the purchasing and factory gate price indices for equipment manufacturing rose for three consecutive months, with the factory price index reaching a new high since June 2024 [7]. - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a decrease in the purchasing price index, indicating reduced cost pressures, which is beneficial for profitability in this sector [8]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index increased to 50.1%, remaining above the neutral level, with significant contributions from sectors related to consumer spending during the holiday season [10]. - The construction sector showed signs of acceleration, with the civil engineering business activity index rising significantly, indicating a positive outlook for infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter [10].

Core Viewpoint - In October, China's manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, while the non-manufacturing business activity index slightly increased to 50.1%, suggesting stability in the overall economy [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI ended a two-month rising trend, with all 13 sub-indices declining, reflecting pressure on enterprises [4][5]. - The manufacturing production index fell to 49.7%, dropping 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slight slowdown in production activities [6]. - The new export orders index decreased to 45.9%, marking the second-lowest point this year, primarily due to global economic pressures and uncertainties in international trade [6][7]. - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing maintained expansion, with PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively [9][10]. Price Trends - Manufacturing prices showed positive changes, with the equipment manufacturing purchase price index and factory price index rising for three consecutive months, reaching a new high since June 2024 [11]. - The consumer goods manufacturing purchase price index decreased, indicating reduced cost pressures, which could benefit profit margins in the sector [12]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained above 50%, reflecting ongoing expansion, with significant activity in sectors related to consumer travel and holiday spending [14][15]. - The civil engineering construction business activity index rose significantly, indicating a potential acceleration in infrastructure investment activities [16].