Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The European container shipping line (EC) opened low and fluctuated, with the 06 contract closing at 1555.2 points, down 1.67%. After the fermentation of the global trade demand recession expectation under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, the expected node of the traditional seasonal peak season for the European line has been postponed, and the space is limited. Maersk continued to offer a large container quote of $1800 in the first week of May, using the quote at the end of April. In the second week of May, the large container quote was slightly reduced by $50 to $1750. Both HMM and ONE reduced their large container quotes starting from the 17th week to below $2000. The average large container quote at the beginning of May was around $2100, slightly lower than the current average quote at the end of April. The possibility of a peak season inflection point in early May is small, and the market is cautious about the peak season space expectation. Currently, the start of the festival stocking season for the European line has not been seen, and with more shipping capacity supply from shipping companies in the second half of May, the short - term EC may continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the subsequent capacity regulation and price increase progress of shipping companies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - **EC2504**: The latest成交价 is 1428.9 points, down 0.31%. The trading volume is 81, and the open interest on one side is 1158. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 92 [1]. - **EC2506**: The latest成交价 is 1555.2 points, down 1.67%. The trading volume is 66899, and the open interest on one side is 36947. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 1261 [1]. - **EC2508**: The latest成交价 is 1646 points, down 0.87%. The trading volume is 20099, and the open interest on one side is 30775. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 912 [1]. - **EC2510**: The latest成交价 is 1314.8 points, up 0.40%. The trading volume is 6862, and the open interest on one side is 16254 [1]. - **EC2512**: The latest成交价 is 1465.2 points, down 0.36%. The trading volume is 1041, and the open interest on one side is 3789 [1]. - **EC2602**: The latest成交价 is 1315.9 points, up 0.88%. The trading volume is 543, and the open interest on one side is 2765 [1]. - **Total**: The total trading volume is 95525, and the total open interest on one side is 91688. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2265 [1]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - **Weekly Spot Index**: The SCFIS is 1402.35 points, down 1.4%; SCFI is $1356/TEU, up 1.5% [1]. - **Daily Spot Freight Rates**: TCI(20GP) is $1564/TEU, unchanged; TCI(40GP) is $2538/FEU, unchanged [1]. - **Basis Spread**: The basis spread on the previous trading day was - 152.85 points, a change of - 14.6 points compared with the day before [1]. Spot Market Data - Shipping Capacity - **Capacity Allocation**: The capacity allocation on the Asia - Europe route is 489606 TEU, a decrease of 1000 TEU. The idle capacity ratio is 2.0%. For different types of container ships, the idle capacity ratios of 17000TEU +, 12000 - 16999TEU, and 8000 - 11999TEU container ships are 1.3%, 0.2%, and 2.4% respectively [4]. - **Average Speed**: The average speed of container ships is 14.01 knots, and the average speeds of 17000TEU + and 12000 - 16999TEU container ships are 15.65 and 15.41 knots respectively [4]. - **Capacity in Port**: The capacity in port in Rotterdam is 24.590,000 TEU, in Hamburg is 9.870,000 TEU, and in Singapore is 34.750,000 TEU [4]. - **Routing Situation**: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 7, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal is 4, and the south - bound traffic volume is 3 [4]. - **Time Charter Rates**: The time charter rates for 9000TEU, 6500TEU, and 2500TEU ships are $106000, $73500, and $33750 per day respectively [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The European container shipping line (EC) weakened during intraday trading, with the 06 contract closing at 1600.1 points, a decline of 7.72%. After the fermentation of the global trade demand recession expectation under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, the expected node of the traditional seasonal peak season for the European line has been postponed, and the upside space is limited. Maersk's cabin opening in the first week of May continued with a quote of $1800 per 40 - foot container, the same as the end - of - April quote, and it is less likely to see a peak - season inflection point in early May. The market is skeptical about whether there will be a peak season in June. After an emotional recovery, the 06 contract has weakened continuously. Currently, the export of goods on the US line has dropped sharply, and some shipping capacity may be redeployed to the European line, exacerbating the oversupply situation on the European line. Since the festival stocking season on the European line has not started yet, the EC may continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' regulation of shipping capacity and the progress of price increases by shipping companies in May. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - **EC2504**: The latest成交价 is 1439.3 points, with a decline of 2.94%. The trading volume is 251, and the open interest on a single - side basis is 1216. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 129. [1] - **EC2506**: The latest成交价 is 1600.1 points, with a decline of 7.72%. The trading volume is 55474, and the open interest on a single - side basis is 35437. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 1239. [1] - **EC2508**: The latest成交价 is 1695 points, with a decline of 2.69%. The trading volume is 19883, and the open interest on a single - side basis is 30439. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 656. [1] - **EC2510**: The latest成交价 is 1305.8 points, with a decline of 0.14%. The trading volume is 10037, and the open interest on a single - side basis is 16064. [1] - **EC2512**: The latest成交价 is 1488 points, with a decline of 1.05%. The trading volume is 1462, and the open interest on a single - side basis is 3829. [1] - **EC2602**: The latest成交价 is 1314.4 points, with a decline of 1.08%. The trading volume is 712, and the open interest on a single - side basis is 2667. [1] - **Total**: The total trading volume is 87819, and the total open interest on a single - side basis is 89652. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2024. [1] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - **Weekly Spot Index**: The SCFIS is 1402.35 points, a decline of 1.4%; the SCFI is $1356 per TEU, an increase of 1.5%. [1] - **Daily Spot Freight Rates**: The TCI (20GP) is $1591 per TEU, a decline of 3.2%; the TCI (40GP) is $2649 per FEU, a decline of 2.1%. [1] - **Basis Spread**: The previous trading day's basis spread was - 197.75 points, with a change of 96.9 points compared to the day before. [1] Spot Market Data - Shipping Capacity and Related Information - **Shipping Capacity**: The shipping capacity on the Asia - Europe route is 491601 TEU, with no change. The idle shipping capacity ratio for global container ships is 2.0%, 1.3% for ships over 17000 TEU, 0.2% for ships between 12000 - 16999 TEU, and 2.4% for ships between 8000 - 11999 TEU. [4] - **Average Speed**: The average speed of container ships is 14.01 knots, 15.65 knots for ships over 17000 TEU, and 15.41 knots for ships between 12000 - 16999 TEU. [4] - **Shipping Capacity at Ports**: The shipping capacity at Rotterdam Port is 24.59 million TEU, at Hamburg Port is 9.87 million TEU, and at Singapore Port is 34.75 million TEU. [4] - **Route - Bypassing Situation**: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 7, the north - bound traffic volume through the Suez Canal is 4, and the south - bound traffic volume through the Suez Canal is 3. [4] - **Time - Charter Rates**: The 6 - 12 - month time - charter rate is $106000 per day for 9000 - TEU ships, $73500 per day for 6500 - TEU ships, and $33750 per day for 2500 - TEU ships. [4]

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，在美国大幅提高进口关税背景下，探讨短期集运转运的可能性，后续仍需关注关税谈判进展对供应链的边际影 响。中信证券预计2025年全球集运市场有效运力（需-供）增速差-1.8pcts，假设2Q~4Q25北美需求下降15%~35%，测算2025年全球集运需求增速或从 +2.8%降至+0.6%/-0.6%/-1.8%，实际供需差将自-1.8pcts扩大至-3.9/-5.2/-6.4pcts。 复盘上一轮贸易摩擦，据外媒，2019年3月美国自墨西哥/越南/马来西亚进口金额同比增加占同期中国大陆减少绝对值的48.4%/29.0%/13.1%。分工况测算 本轮关税加征对全球集运需求的潜在影响，极端情况下若年化70%中美集装箱需求下降&10%转运或导致2025年全球集运周转量需求同降5%。转口贸易或 在酝酿之中，关注关税博弈背景下潜在转口需求受益标的。 中信证券主要观点如下： 关税扰动叠加联盟重塑，集运供应链或迎再次重构。 我们预计2025年全球集运市场有效运力（需-供）增速差-1.8pcts，假设2Q~4Q25北美需求下降15%~35%、分工况测算2025年全球集运需求增速或从+2.8 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records cover multiple industries including automotive, robotics, marine economy, quantum computing, and military technology. Core Points and Arguments Automotive Industry - The company has launched a full-featured parking-to-parking function, enabling nationwide parking capabilities [1] - Geely has introduced a globally leading L3-level intelligent driving architecture, featuring self-developed control systems and dual-sensor chips with a computing power of 1400 TPS [1] Robotics Development - Domestic humanoid robots are rapidly developing, with the establishment of an innovation center for humanoid robots in collaboration with Shanghai University and Tsinghua University [2] - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is set to enter trial production this year, with plans to produce 5,000 units and a target of 50,000 units by 2026 [3] Marine Economy - The marine economy in China has surpassed 10 trillion yuan, reaching 10.54 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, outpacing GDP growth [5] - The fastest-growing sectors within the marine economy include the marine shipbuilding industry, which saw a production value of 137 billion yuan and a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [6] Quantum Computing - NVIDIA's new quantum research lab aims to integrate leading quantum hardware with AI supercomputers to accelerate quantum computing solutions [8] - The quantum computing industry is expected to see significant growth, with estimates suggesting a market size of $811.7 billion by 2035 [11] Military Technology - The company anticipates a significant increase in related transactions, with an expected total of 5.59 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 124% year-on-year growth [29] - China's military budget is projected to grow by 7.2% in 2025, continuing a trend of high growth in military spending [30] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The marine economy's growth is supported by various provincial governments emphasizing marine economic policies [4] - The integration of quantum computing with traditional computing is expected to disrupt various industries, with significant advancements anticipated in the next decade [12] - The military technology sector is poised to benefit from both domestic and international demand for precision-guided munitions, with a focus on low-cost solutions [31][32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC of the container shipping European line fluctuated, with the 06 contract closing at 1697 points, a decline of 5.3%. The SCFIS European line announced after the market was 1402.35 points, a slight drop of 20.07 points from the previous period, corresponding to the departure settlement price from April 7 - 13, and was included in the 04 contract delivery settlement price. The EC is currently more affected by the macro - impact of Trump's tariff policy, especially the potential decline in global trade demand due to tariff barriers. The impact on spot freight rates is relatively limited. Some shipping companies continued to slightly reduce the quotes for the second half of April. Compared with the price increases in March and April, the price increase in May is slower due to macro - disturbances and is still unclear. The European line is traditionally about to enter the seasonal peak season in the second quarter, but under the influence of the uncertainty of high tariffs, the decline in US - bound cargo exports may spill over to the European line. Since the festival stocking season for the European line has not started yet, there is uncertainty about whether the traditional peak season will arrive. It is expected that the expected peak season will be postponed and its actual height will be limited. There may be an emotional repair in the short term. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' regulation of shipping capacity and the progress of price increases in May [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest (One - Side) | Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | Short Positions (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2504 | 1480 | - 0.83 | 126 | 1297 | 967 | 1120 | - 153 | | EC2506 | 1697 | - 5.30 | 54583 | 33133 | 18348 | 19071 | - 723 | | EC2508 | 1708 | - 1.80 | 21084 | 29822 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | EC2510 | 1295.1 | - 0.43 | 8301 | 15747 | - | - | - | | EC2512 | 1480.2 | - 0.31 | 1722 | 3777 | - | - | - | | EC2602 | 1310.5 | - 0.40 | 1335 | 2676 | - | - | - | | Total | - | - | 87151 | 86452 | 19315 | 20191 | - 876 | [1] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Spot Index | Indicator | Latest Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Previous Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Two Periods Ago | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (Weekly) | SCFIS - Points | 1402.35 | - 1.4% | 1422.42 | - 3.5% | 1473.56 | - 2.2% | | | SCFI - $/TEU | 1356 | 1.5% | 1336 | 1.4% | 1318 | 0.9% | | Spot Freight Rates | TCI(20GP) $/TEU | 1644 | 0.7% | 1632 | 0.0% | 1632 | 0.0% | | (Daily) | TCI(40GP) $/FEU | 2705 | 0.9% | 2681 | 0.0% | 2681 | 0.0% | | Basis Spread (Points) | | | | | | | | | Previous Trading Day Basis Spread | - 387.88 | - 294.65 | | Two Trading Days Ago Basis Spread | | | Month - on - Month Change | 93.23 | [1] Spot Market Data - Shipping Capacity | | Asia - Europe Route Capacity Deployment (TEU) | Month - on - Month Increase (TEU) | Idle Capacity Ratio (%) | Global | 17000TEU+ Container Ships | 12000 - 16999TEU Container Ships | 8000 - 11999TEU Container Ships | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Capacity | 486844 | - 2568 | 2.0 | - | 1.3 | 0.2 | 2.4 | | Average Speed (Knots) | Container Ships | 14.01 | 17000TEU+ Container Ships | 15.65 | 12000 - 16999TEU Container Ships | 15.41 | - | | In - Port Capacity (10,000 TEU) | Rotterdam | 24.59 | Hamburg Port | 9.87 | Singapore | 34.75 | - | | Bypass Situation | Number of Ships Passing Through the Gulf of Aden (Vessels) | 7 | North - bound Traffic Volume in the Suez Canal (Vessels) | 4 | South - bound Traffic Volume in the Suez Canal (Vessels) | 3 | - | | Time - Charter Rates (6 - 12 months) | 9000TEU ($/Day) | 106000 | 6500TEU ($/Day) | 73500 | 2500TEU ($/Day) | 33750 | - | [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the reports Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Futures-Spot Spread**: F期现价差为 -63.92，较前一日变化 -1.80；H期现价差为 -23.98，较前一日变化 6.44；IC期现价差为 -25.52，较前一日变化 0.25；IM期现价差为 -189.99，较前一日变化 16.40 [1] - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: Various inter - delivery spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented with their latest values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical quantiles, and all - time historical quantiles [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Ratios such as 中证500/沪深300, IC/IF, etc. are provided with their latest values, changes, and quantiles [1] 2. Bond Futures Spread Report - **Basis**: TS基差为 2.4320，较前一交易日变化 0.0513；TF基差为 2.2269，较前一交易日变化 -0.0773；T基差为 2.3683，较前一交易日变化 0.2342；TL基差为 2.0962，较前一交易日变化 0.0965 [3] - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: Inter - delivery spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL are given with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [3] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are reported with their values and changes [3] 3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Precious Metals Prices**: London gold was at $3238.07/ounce on April 11, up 1.99% from the previous day; London silver was at $32.28, up 3.43%. COMEX gold主力合约 was at $3254.90 on April 11, and COMEX silver主力合约 was at $32.20 [7][9] - **Price Differences**: Gold TD - 沪金主力 was 0.45, up 4.90 from the previous value; Silver TD - 沪银主力 was 14, up 49 from the previous value [7] - **Inventory and Position**: Data on inventories (e.g., 上期所黄金库存, COMEX黄金库存) and positions (e.g., SPRD黄金ETF持仓, SLV白银ETF持仓) are provided with their changes [5] 4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates for different carriers like MAERSK马士基, CMA达飞, etc. are presented with their changes [10] - **Container Shipping Index**: SCFIS (European route), SCFIS (US West route), and Shanghai export container freight rates are reported with their changes [10] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC2602, EC2504, etc. and the basis (主力) are given with their changes [10] - **Fundamental Data**: Data on 运力供给, 红海绕航情况, 外贸相关指标, 海外经济, and OECD综合领先指标 are provided with their changes [10] 5. Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data/Information**: Includes economic indicators and events in the US such as semiconductor tariffs information, USDA export inspection, etc. [11] - **Domestic Data/Information**: Covers various economic indicators and events in China, including electricity consumption, trade balance, and inventory data for different commodities [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The European container shipping line (EC) opened low and fluctuated, with the 06 contract closing at 1704.7 points, down 6.57%. Most shipping companies' freight rates in the first half of April continued the quotes at the end of March, with a slight increase in the second half. The freight rates in April tend to stabilize, and the average price of a 40 - foot container in the 16th week was around $2300. Some shipping companies have announced their online quotes for May, with the quotes for 40 - foot containers ranging from $2337 to $4545. The weekly average capacity put into service by shipping companies in May exceeds 300,000 TEU, and the rate - increase efforts of each shipping company vary. The market had expectations for the upcoming traditional peak season in the second quarter, but under the uncertainty of high tariffs, shipping companies may start a price - cut game to preserve more profits rather than betting on the peak - season demand, and the expected peak - season node may be postponed or the expected difference may drop to zero. Trump's latest tariff policy "U - turn" announced a 90 - day delay in equivalent tariffs for most countries, which may lead to short - term emotional repair. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' subsequent capacity regulation and the progress of rate increases in May [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest (Unilateral) | Long - Position Holdings (Top 20 Members) | Short - Position Holdings (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Position (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2504 | 1491 | - 1.37 | 556 | 1509 | 1123 | 1264 | - 141 | | EC2506 | 1704.7 | - 6.57 | 86722 | 34705 | 20734 | 19291 | 1443 | | EC2508 | 1703.2 | - 8.18 | 34648 | 28839 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | EC2510 | 1275.8 | - 3.44 | 18080 | 16196 | - | - | - | | EC2512 | 1455.2 | - 4.13 | 3509 | 3554 | - | - | - | | EC2602 | 1295.8 | - 4.05 | 2938 | 2752 | - | - | - | | Total | - | - | 146453 | 87555 | 21857 | 20555 | 1302 | [1] 3.2 Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Index | Latest Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Previous Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Two Periods Ago | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Index (Weekly) - SCFIS (Points) | 1422.42 | - 3.5% | 1473.56 | - 2.2% | 1506.17 | - 6.5% | | SCFI ($/TEU) | 1336 | 1.4% | 1318 | 0.9% | 1306 | - 2.7% | | Spot Freight Rates (Daily) - TCI (20GP) ($/TEU) | 1660 | 0.0% | 1660 | 0.0% | 1660 | 3.7% | | Spot Freight Rates (Daily) - TCI (40GP) ($/FEU) | 2737 | 0.0% | 2737 | 0.0% | 2737 | 8.7% | | Basis Spread (Points) | - | - | - | - | - | 62.3 | [1] 3.3 Spot Market Data - **Capacity and Utilization**: The capacity put into service on the Asia - Europe route is 489,797 TEU, a decrease of 1153 TEU. The idle capacity ratio is 2.4%. For different types of container ships (17000TEU +, 12000 - 16999TEU, 8000 - 11999TEU), the idle capacity ratios are 3.2%, 0.6%, and 2.7% respectively [4] - **Average Speed**: The average speed of container ships is 13.95 knots. The speeds of 17000TEU + and 12000 - 16999TEU container ships are 15.7 and 15.3 knots respectively [4] - **Capacity at Port**: The capacity at Rotterdam Port is 229,100 TEU, at Hamburg Port is 98,200 TEU, and at Singapore Port is 335,300 TEU [4] - **Route - Bypass Situation**: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 8, the north - bound traffic volume through the Suez Canal is 2, and the south - bound traffic volume is 1 [4] - **Charter Rates**: The 6 - 12 - month time - charter rates for 9000TEU, 6500TEU, and 2500TEU container ships are $106,000, $73,500, and $33,750 per day respectively [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the container shipping European route is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Core View of the Report - The EC in the container shipping European route weakened during intraday trading. The 06 contract closed at 1767 points, down 8.32%, hitting a new low since March. The 08 contract fell 12.38%, and the closing price was basically the same as the 06 contract. The expectation difference for the peak season continued to narrow, and it was doubtful whether the seasonal peak season from May to August could be realized. The current freight rates of shipping companies have not changed much. In the first half of April, most shipping companies continued the quotes at the end of March, and there was a small increase in the second half. The freight rates in April tended to stabilize, and the average price of a 40 - foot container in the 16th week was about $2300. Some shipping companies have announced their online quotes for May, with the quotes for 40 - foot containers ranging from $2337 to $4545. The average weekly capacity put into operation by shipping companies in May exceeded 300,000 TEU, and the increase efforts of each shipping company varied. Under the influence of the uncertainty of high - tariffs, shipping companies may start a price - cut game to preserve more profits instead of betting on the peak - season demand. It is expected that the EC will continue its weak pattern in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - The latest transaction price of EC2504 was 1500.9 points, down 1.20%, with a trading volume of 772 and a unilateral open interest of 1736. The net long position of the top 20 members was - 138 [1] - The latest transaction price of EC2506 was 1767 points, down 8.32%, with a trading volume of 74206 and a unilateral open interest of 32760. The net long position of the top 20 members was 712 [1] - The latest transaction price of EC2508 was 1768 points, down 12.38%, with a trading volume of 36214 and a unilateral open interest of 28249. The net long position of the top 20 members was 0 [1] - The latest transaction price of EC2510 was 1270.1 points, down 9.40%, with a trading volume of 14176 and a unilateral open interest of 15731 [1] - The latest transaction price of EC2512 was 1459.7 points, down 9.91%, with a trading volume of 3296 and a unilateral open interest of 3132 [1] - The latest transaction price of EC2602 was 1286 points, down 11.60%, with a trading volume of 2658 and a unilateral open interest of 2458 [1] - The total trading volume was 131322, and the total unilateral open interest was 84066. The net long position of the top 20 members was 574 [1] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - The latest SCFIS index was 1422.42 points, down 3.5% week - on - week [1] - The latest SCFI was $1336 per TEU, up 1.4% week - on - week [1] - The latest TCI (20GP) was $1660 per TEU, with no change [1] - The latest TCI (40GP) was $2737 per TEU, with no change [1] - The basis difference on the previous trading day was - 462.58 points, and the basis difference on the day was - 344.58 points, a change of 118 points [1] Spot Market Data - The capacity put into operation on the Asia - Europe route was 488775 TEU, with no change. The idle capacity ratios of global container ships, container ships over 17000 TEU, 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships, and 8000 - 11999 TEU container ships were 2.4%, 3.2%, 0.6%, and 2.7% respectively [4] - The average speed of container ships was 13.95 knots. The speed of container ships over 17000 TEU was 15.7 knots, and the speed of 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships was 15.3 knots [4] - The in - port capacity in Rotterdam was 229100 TEU, in Hamburg was 98200 TEU, and in Singapore was 335300 TEU [4] - The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden was 8, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal was 2, and the south - bound traffic volume was 1 [4] - The 6 - 12 - month time - charter rates for 9000 TEU, 6500 TEU, and 2500 TEU container ships were $106000, $73500, and $33750 per day respectively [4]

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 4 月 9 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货4月8日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2504 | 1,519.1 | 1,500.0 | 1,500.9 | 1,511.7 | -18.2 | -1.2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market is affected by tariff conflicts, with high uncertainty. The global recession model remains the baseline expectation. The weakening of equity expectations is the main short - term logic, and there are many uncertainties in the medium - term. It is recommended to be cautious, considering short - selling or hedging [4][5]. - For the bond market, the trading logic has shifted from concerns about the capital side to the fundamentals. With the high uncertainty of tariff conflicts, monetary easing may be on the way. It is recommended to consider simple and effective unilateral strategies and also consider steepening the yield curve [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - A - shares adjusted on Monday due to overseas tariff shocks. Central Huijin, China Chengtong, and China Guoxin increased their holdings of ETFs and stocks to maintain the stability of the capital market. China has sufficient room for policy adjustment in monetary and fiscal policies and will take measures to boost domestic consumption and stabilize the capital market. China Guoxin's subsidiary will increase its holdings of stocks and ETFs with an initial amount of 80 billion yuan [4]. - The land markets in hot cities are hot, and the real estate trading volume in first - tier and core second - tier cities continues to recover. The "Silver April" is an important node for the property market [4]. - The White House denied the news of a 90 - day tariff suspension. The EU proposed to impose a 25% tariff on a series of US imports starting from May 16 and removed US bourbon whiskey from the counter - tariff list [4]. - The Fed held a closed - door meeting to review and determine interest rates. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months to 45% and lowered the GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 to 0.5% [4]. - Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on China if China does not withdraw the 34% tariff retaliation by April 8 [4]. - Eurozone's February retail sales increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 [4]. Stock Index Futures - The market declined significantly due to tariff conflicts. The uncertainty of tariff conflicts remains, and the global recession model is the baseline expectation. It is recommended to consider short - selling or hedging, being cautious [4][5]. Treasury Bond Futures - The recession expectation pushed the bond market to open higher, but capital net withdrawal and exchange - rate depreciation pressure restricted the bond market. The trading logic has shifted to the fundamentals, and monetary easing may be coming. It is recommended to consider simple unilateral strategies and steepening the yield curve [6]. Container Shipping on European Routes - If the tariff policy is implemented, the shipping volume on the US routes will face pressure, and the overflow of capacity to European routes may suppress freight rates. In the short - term, the improvement of supply - demand is difficult to achieve, and the market's expectation of the peak season may be restricted. It is recommended to do an EC2506/EC2510 reverse spread [7]. Cotton - The price of US cotton was affected by Trump's "reciprocal tariff" order. The domestic cotton price is expected to be weak due to concerns about external demand, high inventory, and the contradiction between domestic demand expansion and weak external demand [8]. Sugar - The sugar price was under pressure due to the US tariff policy and higher - than - expected domestic production. In the future, factors such as India's production cut, Brazil's new harvest season, and Thailand's production increase will affect the price. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate and be resistant to decline [8][9][10]. Oilseeds and Oils - Palm oil may face a decline in the far - month contracts due to the drop in international crude oil prices and the weakening of the driving force for the rise in domestic oils. The price of soybean meal rose due to China's tariff on US imports. In the short - term, it may be strong, but there is also hedging pressure. It is recommended to go long on the far - month soybean meal contracts [10][11]. Eggs - The egg futures rebounded due to factors such as faster spot sales and feed price increase expectations but then fell back due to the overall loose supply - demand situation. In the future, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand has unfavorable factors. Feed price increase may support the far - month contracts and strengthen the pattern of near - weak and far - strong. It is recommended to short - sell on the 05 - 07 rebound and consider a short - 7 long - 9 reverse spread [11][12][13]. Apples - The apple price was supported by factors such as strong spot prices, fast inventory clearance, and high delivery costs. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [14]. Red Dates - The red date market was less affected by the external environment due to its self - sufficient nature. With the increase in seasonal fresh fruits, the demand for red dates decreased, and the inventory was high. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to roll - over risks [14]. Pigs - The pig price rebounded due to the reduction in supply by leading enterprises. In the future, the supply pressure will continue to be realized, and the consumption is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [15]. Crude Oil - The international oil price fell due to the US tariff policy. In the long - term, the supply will increase, and the demand is weak. The oil price is in a panic - selling stage, and there is no sign of stabilization [15][16]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price was affected by the trade war. The impact on import - export shipping demand is significant, and the price has not bottomed out, depending on the market's interpretation of the trade war [17][18]. Plastics - In the long - term, tariffs will suppress export demand. In the short - term, factors such as reduced imports and potential production cuts in PP may have a greater impact. It is recommended to be bearish on L and wait and see for PP [19]. Methanol - The demand for methanol is expected to weaken due to the US - China tariff war and the increase in import supply. The market has different views on methanol pricing. It is recommended to have a bearish view [20]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong declined. The Trump tariff policy has a negative impact on the demand for caustic soda. It is recommended to have a bearish view on caustic soda futures [20][21]. Soda Ash and Glass - The price of soda ash opened low and rebounded. The supply is at a high level, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The glass price opened low and then strengthened, with good short - term sales and inventory reduction. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a long - glass and short - soda - ash spread [22][23]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG price was affected by the counter - tariff and the drop in crude oil prices. The import cost has increased, and the demand is affected by the global recession expectation. The price increase is restricted [23]. Pulp - The pulp price fell due to the macro - economic situation. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high. In the medium - term, the supply of coniferous pulp may be tight due to the tariff on US imports [23]. Logs - The log market is in a stable and oscillating state. The demand has improved, and the inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US trade friction [23]. Urea - The spot price of urea is weak, and the futures price has no obvious upward momentum in the short - term. There is a demand for bargain - hunting in the future. It is recommended to change from a bearish to a bullish view when the market improves [23][24]. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market was affected by the macro - environment and stopped trading at the daily limit. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. Aluminum and Alumina - The price of aluminum was affected by the Trump tariff, with a short - term emotional impact. It is recommended to go short on rallies. The alumina market has an oversupply problem, and it is also recommended to go short on rallies in the short - term [25][26]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price was affected by the US tariff policy. The direct impact on the lithium salt end is limited, and the demand on the finished - product end may be restricted. The short - term price is mainly affected by its own supply - demand [27][28]. Steel and Iron Ore - The prices of steel and iron ore declined due to the US tariff policy. The current price decline may have reflected the negative impact, and it is difficult to rebound significantly in the short - term. The supply - demand is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies [29][30]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke were weak due to the tariff policy. The production enthusiasm of coking coal mines is affected, but large - scale production cuts are unlikely in the short - term. The demand may improve, but it needs to be observed. It is recommended not to go long until there are signs of large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [31]. Ferroalloys - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese opened lower and then rebounded. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the cost is under downward pressure. It is recommended to go short on rallies [32].