Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO [4][6] Core Views - MINISO's domestic same-store sales are showing improvement, with a net decrease of 111 stores in Q1 2025, but a year-on-year increase of 241 stores, leading to a revenue of 24.94 billion yuan, up 9.1% year-on-year [1] - The overseas market remains a focus, with a total of 3,213 stores as of Q1 2025, an increase of 617 stores year-on-year, and overseas revenue reaching 15.92 billion yuan, up 30.3% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 44.2% in Q1 2025, driven by a higher proportion of overseas revenue and a shift towards higher-margin products [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 210.1 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit projected at 29.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth trajectory despite current challenges [4] Summary by Sections Domestic Performance - In Q1 2025, MINISO's domestic revenue was 24.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, with same-store sales decline narrowing to low single digits [1] Overseas Expansion - The overseas store count reached 3,213, with a year-on-year increase of 617 stores, and average store revenue grew by 4.6% year-on-year [2] Financial Metrics - Q1 2025 adjusted net profit was 5.87 billion yuan, down 4.81% year-on-year, with gross margin at 44.2% [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 210.1 billion yuan, 246.1 billion yuan, and 280.4 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 29.5 billion yuan, 36.5 billion yuan, and 43.3 billion yuan [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a gradual alleviation of performance pressure, with same-store sales showing signs of improvement. The focus is on high-quality development and strategic store network optimization [12][13] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 20.54 billion, 24.60 billion, and 29.55 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 20.9%, 19.7%, and 20.2%. Adjusted net profits are projected at 2.86 billion, 3.68 billion, and 4.56 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4.97%, 28.74%, and 24.04% respectively [4][15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, with a gross margin of 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points. Adjusted net profit was 590 million yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year [12] - The company’s domestic same-store sales have shown significant improvement, with a notable reduction in the decline rate compared to previous quarters. The total number of stores reached 4,275, with a net closure of 111 stores [13] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% over the next three years, with adjusted net profit margins expected to stabilize and improve [15][16] - The adjusted net profit corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are forecasted to be 14X, 11X, and 9X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][15] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its supply chain advantages and IP transformation capabilities while continuing its global expansion strategy [15] - The overseas business saw revenue of 1.59 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, despite facing high base pressure from the previous year [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company is leveraging a comprehensive retail strategy to address operational challenges and diversify its customer base [5] - The company has faced short-term profit impacts due to increased discounts but maintains a leading dividend payout ratio in the industry [7] - The core international brand partnerships are gradually recovering, and new brand acquisitions are expected to enhance the company's diversified layout [7] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.416 billion in FY2026, with a growth rate of 10.14% [7] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, the company is expected to generate revenue of RMB 27,012.90 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.64% [6] - The net profit for FY2024 is projected at RMB 1,286 million, down 41.89% year-on-year [6] - The company’s gross margin for FY2024 is estimated at 38.4%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points compared to the previous fiscal year [7] - The company plans to maintain a total dividend payout ratio of 135% for FY2024/25, continuing to provide high dividend returns to shareholders [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: RMB 28,933.20 million in 2024, RMB 27,012.90 million in 2025, and RMB 26,445.63 million in 2026, with respective growth rates of 6.87%, -6.64%, and -2.10% [6] - The projected net profit for the years 2026 to 2028 is RMB 1,416.34 million, RMB 1,670.93 million, and RMB 1,980.06 million, with growth rates of 10.14%, 17.98%, and 18.50% respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain high dividend payouts, with a full-year dividend payout ratio of 135% for FY2025, reflecting a cumulative payout ratio of 104.2% over the past six years [5] - Revenue for FY2025 is projected at 27.01 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, while net profit is expected to be 1.286 billion HKD, down 41.9% [5][8] - The company is adjusting its earnings forecasts for FY2026-2028, with expected net profits of 1.32 billion HKD, 1.591 billion HKD, and 1.85 billion HKD respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.4 for FY2026, 11.1 for FY2027, and 9.5 for FY2028 [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - FY2025 revenue is expected to be 27,013 million HKD, with a year-on-year decline of 6.6% [8] - FY2025 net profit is projected at 1,286 million HKD, representing a 41.9% decrease compared to FY2024 [8] - Gross margin for FY2025 is anticipated to be 38.4%, down 3.4 percentage points from the previous year [7][8] - The operating profit margin (OPM) is expected to be 5.9%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points [7] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.2% for FY2025 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain high dividend payouts with a full-year dividend payout ratio of 135% for FY2025, despite a projected revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year to HKD 27.01 billion and a significant drop in net profit by 41.9% to HKD 1.286 billion [5][8] - The company is adjusting its earnings forecasts for FY2026-2027 and introducing FY2028 projections, with expected net profits of HKD 1.32 billion, HKD 1.591 billion, and HKD 1.85 billion respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.4, 11.1, and 9.5 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, indicating potential value [5] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, the company's revenue is projected at HKD 27.013 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 6.6% [8] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 38.4%, down 3.4 percentage points from the previous year, while the net profit margin is projected at 4.8% [7][8] - The company has effectively managed inventory, with a reduction in inventory to HKD 6 billion, and an improvement in inventory turnover days to 134.9 days [7] Operational Insights - The company has seen a decline in the number of stores, with a total of 5,020 stores as of FY2025, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year [6] - Direct online sales have increased significantly, contributing to a rise in online revenue share to the mid-30% range, up from the mid-20% range in FY2024 [6] - The company is focusing on optimizing its store portfolio by closing underperforming locations while expanding its presence in key markets with flagship stores [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the gold and jewelry industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5][41] Core Insights - The gold and jewelry industry is experiencing a transformation towards product-driven growth, with a greater emphasis on single-store efficiency at the retail level [1][2] - In 2024, the total retail sales of gold and silver jewelry reached 329.98 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, while the first quarter of 2025 saw a rebound with a growth rate of 6.9% due to seasonal demand and changes in consumer preferences [4][8] - The industry is witnessing a significant divergence in performance among listed companies, influenced by factors such as product category structure and channel expansion models [2][8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The gold price has been on a long-term upward trend, which is expected to enhance the value retention attributes of gold, positively impacting terminal sales [2] - Consumer demand for design attributes is increasing, prompting companies to shift from traditional channel expansion to product-driven strategies [2][22] Channel Dynamics - The past year has seen a strategic contraction in the number of stores, particularly franchise outlets, due to weakened demand and franchisee exits [2][34] - Companies are focusing on enhancing the operation of self-owned stores and upgrading existing store images to align with consumer preferences for brand and shopping experience [2][34] Performance Divergence - The first quarter of 2025 has shown accelerated performance divergence among companies, with some brands achieving significant growth due to differentiated product positioning and strong brand identity [10][12] - For instance, Chao Hong Ji reported a revenue increase of 25.36% to 2.252 billion yuan and a net profit growth of 44.38% to 189 million yuan in Q1 2025 [10][12] Consumer Behavior Trends - Young consumers (aged 18-34) are increasingly contributing to gold jewelry retail sales, with a demand for innovative designs and emotional expression through products [28][31] - The preference for one-price products over traditional weight-based pricing is growing, as these products offer better perceived value during periods of high gold prices [22][25] Store Strategy Adjustments - Traditional franchise models are contracting, while companies are expanding self-owned stores to strengthen brand presence and improve customer experience [34][37] - Companies are also upgrading store designs and layouts to enhance consumer engagement and brand identity [34][37] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two investment directions: traditional gold and jewelry leaders with low valuation recovery potential and companies with differentiated brand positioning that can leverage online and offline synergies for growth [38][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [4][13][16] Core Views - The company is experiencing strong growth in its gold jewelry products, with a profit increase of over 40% in the first quarter of 2025. The revenue for 2024 is projected at 6.518 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.48%, while the net profit is expected to be 194 million yuan, a decrease of 41.91% [1][5] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product design and store image, which has led to a 25.36% revenue growth in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 2.252 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 44.38% to 189 million yuan [1][5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 8.274 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 26.94% increase, and net profits of 464.39 million yuan, a 139.81% increase [3][14] - The revenue from traditional gold products is expected to reach 2.949 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.21%, while fashion jewelry revenue is projected to remain stable at 2.97 billion yuan [8][14] Financial Metrics - The gross margin for the first quarter of 2025 is reported at 22.93%, a decrease of 1.99 percentage points year-on-year, but an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous quarter [2][10] - The company has managed to optimize its overall expense ratio, with sales and management expense ratios at 8.76% and 1.3%, respectively, both showing year-on-year improvements [2][10] Store Expansion and Brand Strategy - The company plans to open 111 new stores in 2024 and is developing a new store concept to enhance its brand image, targeting younger consumers and emphasizing Eastern fashion [8][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [8] Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in Q1 2025, with revenue of 859 million and a year-on-year increase of 6.56%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.69 million, also up by 6.13% year-on-year [1] - The company is actively optimizing its mother and baby store formats, anticipating that changes in birth policies will release market demand. The number of newborns in China is projected to reach 9.54 million in 2024, an increase of 520,000 from the previous year, indicating a potential growth in the mother and baby market [3] - The company has opened new stores and closed some, ending Q1 2025 with a total of 472 stores and 25 signed stores awaiting opening [2] - The company is entering the IP retail market with the launch of a Gundam base and Bandai model stores, targeting younger consumer groups [4] - A new store format has been launched in Shanghai, focusing on a blend of accessibility and aesthetics, which is planned for nationwide rollout [5] - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 38.12 billion, 42.56 billion, and 47.98 billion respectively, with net profits of 1.34 billion, 1.58 billion, and 1.90 billion, corresponding to P/E ratios of 22, 19, and 15 [5] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue from store sales was 623 million, up 5.6% year-on-year, while e-commerce revenue was 179 million, up 13.5% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 24%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin remained stable at 0.78% [1] - The company expects a revenue growth rate of 9.95% in 2025, with a projected net profit growth rate of 25.98% [6][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][15] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline in overall retail value of 11.6% for the first quarter of 2025, with a 10.4% decline in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) and a 20.7% decline in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets. However, the decline in same-store sales has narrowed compared to the previous quarter [3][5] - The proportion of high-margin priced products has significantly increased, with the retail value of priced products in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) rising from 9.4% to 25.6% year-on-year, supporting the company's gross margin resilience [3][5] - The company continues to enhance store efficiency by closing 406 underperforming stores, with a total of 6,643 stores remaining at the end of the period. Additionally, five new image stores were opened in the Chinese market, achieving performance above the average of same-store sales [3][10] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Overall retail value decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a 10.4% decline in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) and a 20.7% decline in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets. Same-store sales in the Chinese market fell by 13.2%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [3][5] Product Sales Structure - The share of high-margin priced products has increased, with the retail value of priced products in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) rising from 9.4% to 25.6% year-on-year. The sales of the signature CTF Fortune and CTF Palace series reached approximately HKD 4 billion each for the fiscal year 2025 [3][5] Store Management - The company closed 406 underperforming stores, including 397 from the main CTF brand, resulting in a total of 6,643 stores at the end of the period. The company also opened five new image stores in the Chinese market, which performed better than the average same-store sales in the initial months [3][10] Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast for the fiscal years 2025-2027 at HKD 52.51 billion, HKD 61.54 billion, and HKD 68.84 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.3, 15.6, and 14 times [4][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [7][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 288 million in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 20 million, down 33.9% year-on-year [1] - For the full year 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.203 billion, a 2.3% increase year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 19.1% to 104 million [1] - The company is actively implementing a marketing strategy focused on core regions and a combination of online and offline channels, which has led to steady revenue growth despite a decline in profits due to goodwill impairment [1] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 61.71%, a decrease of 1.36 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 8.62%, down 2.28 percentage points [1] - The revenue from optical glasses and fitting services was 806 million, up 1.78% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 70.2% [2] - The revenue from the complete glasses series was 178 million, an increase of 11.97%, with a gross margin of 46.8% [2] - The revenue from contact lenses decreased by 5.03% to 156 million, with a gross margin of 36.9% [2] Product Structure Optimization - The company has cultivated its own brands, owning 13 brands by the end of 2024, with self-branded lenses and frames accounting for 58.65% and 65.40% of total sales, respectively [3] - Sales of functional lenses and adult progressive lenses saw significant year-on-year growth, with increases of 33.87% and 7.28%, respectively [3] Store Expansion and Digital Transformation - By the end of 2024, the company had 557 stores, a net increase of 42, with 510 direct-operated stores [4] - The company is deepening partnerships with major supermarket chains and hospitals to enhance its retail presence in key urban areas [4] - Online sales totaled 190 million in 2024, a decrease of 7.83% year-on-year, but the company is focusing on increasing brand exposure through social media and live streaming [4] Embracing Smart Technology - The company is actively engaging in the smart eyewear market, collaborating with leading brands to enhance its service offerings [5] - The launch of the Thunder V3 AI shooting glasses is scheduled for January 7, 2025, with plans to upgrade retail stores to include smart eyewear displays [5] Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 120 million, 140 million, and 160 million, respectively [11]