商美大島,玉米王 2026.02.06 巴西未来两周降水距平 Forecast Precipitation (percent of normal) Soybeans Production Shown Inset 15-Day Forecast (GFS) Beginning 5 February 2026 0 World Ag Weather 100 150 20 110 125 60 80 ao 200 300 40 400 600 巴西未来未来7天累计降水预报 GFS High-Resolution Precipitation Forecast Days 1-7: 00UTC 6 Feb 2026 - 00UTC 13 Feb 2026 Model Initialized 00UTC 5 Feb 2026 C World Ag Weather 10 15 25 35 200 250 2 5 100 65 80 125 150 50 mm 根廷未来两周降水距平 Forecast Precipitation (percent of normal) Soybeans Production Shown Inset ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Agricultural Products: Cobweb Pricing, Prepare Boats in Drought - 2026 Agricultural Market Outlook" [1] - Report Date: February 6, 2026 - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The provided content does not mention the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - Agricultural products are typical cyclical commodities with seasonal production and annual sales, and their pricing follows the cobweb model [3][48]. - Agricultural product prices are at historical lows, with highly predictable positive drivers and a high risk - return ratio [3][48]. - Although the overall global agricultural product output is still increasing, the increment mainly comes from South America, with a high concentration. Global resource nationalism is intensifying, and geopolitical risks remain, increasing the risk premium of essential agricultural products [3][44][48]. - In 2025/2026, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of global rice, corn, and soybeans decreased. The prices of corn and soybeans are relatively low compared to precious metals and non - ferrous metals and have fallen below the US planting cost for two consecutive years [3][48]. - It is highly predictable that the US will reduce the planting area in 2026/2027 due to low planting profits. Weather premium trading weight is increasing [3][48]. - The domestic hog price has fallen below the self - breeding and self - raising production cost since September 2025, with the possibility of passive capacity reduction during the consumption off - season. It is recommended to focus on the opportunities driven by the biodiesel policy for oils, the expected opportunities for the rapeseed - soybean meal price difference due to improved China - Canada relations, and the hog cycle reversal opportunities [3][44][48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Prices Are Relatively Low - Since September 2025, gold has started a new upward trend. The expected Fed rate cut has increased the attractiveness of precious metals, the weakening of the US dollar's credit has led to "de - dollarization" trading, and new consumption in AI computing power, energy storage, and photovoltaics has boosted the demand for precious metals [6]. - Since November 2025, silver has become the new leader in price increases, and the gold - to - silver ratio has accelerated its decline. Silver supply is limited by associated mining, and its demand has increased rapidly in new energy vehicles, energy storage, and photovoltaics [8]. - Since November 2025, non - ferrous metals such as brass and aluminum have seen accelerated price increases, and in mid - December 2025, nickel with high inventories also started to make up for the price increase, spreading to the entire non - ferrous metal sector [10]. - Agricultural product prices are at a historical low level. Compared with the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, the relative position of agricultural product prices is low. Even after the recent sharp correction of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, this situation has not changed [12]. 3.2 The Fundamentals of Agricultural Products Are Gradually Improving - As of January 2026, USDA expects the global grain output in 2025/2026 to reach a new high (+4.2%), with rigid demand growth (+2.8%). The inventory - to - consumption ratios of rice, corn, and soybeans have decreased [13]. - In 2025/2026, the global rice output decreased by 0.03%, wheat output increased by 5.16%, corn output increased by 5.29%, soybean output decreased by 0.34%, rapeseed output increased by 10.66%, palm oil output increased by 2.31%, sugar output increased by 4.58%, and cotton output increased by 0.80% [15][17][20][24]. - The US soybean has been in a loss - making state since 2024/2025, with a loss of $96.4 per acre, and the US corn has also been in a loss - making state since 2024/2025, with a loss of $130.15 per acre [36]. - From October 2024 to now, the CBOT corn and soybean futures prices have been fluctuating at a low level, and it is expected that the US corn and soybean planting will continue to be in a loss - making state in 2025/2026 [38]. - The El Niño index has been negative since September 2024, and in January 2026, it was - 0.5, in a weak La Niña state, which is beneficial to the crop yield [40]. - USDA expects the US corn yield per acre in 2025/2026 to be 186.5 bushels, and the soybean yield per acre to be 53 bushels. The Brazilian corn yield per hectare in 2025/2026 is expected to be 5.8 tons, decreasing for two consecutive years, and the soybean yield per hectare is expected to be 3.63 tons, at a historical high level [42]. - The hog price has fallen below the self - breeding and self - raising production cost since September 2025 for 16 weeks, and after a short - term low - profit stage in January 2026, it is expected to continue to be in a loss - making state during the consumption off - season. Once the market enters the passive capacity reduction stage, the cycle reversal opportunity should be noted [44]. 3.3 Cobweb Pricing, Prepare Boats in Drought - Agricultural products are typical cyclical commodities, with seasonal production and annual sales, and their pricing follows the cobweb model [46]. - In 2025/2026, the US corn and soybean yields are at historical high levels. The market focuses on the expected reduction of the planting area in the US in 2026/2027 due to continuous negative planting profits. If the expectation is confirmed from March to May 2026, the weight of weather premium will increase from July to August [47]. - The prices of agricultural products are at historical lows, with highly predictable positive drivers and a high risk - return ratio. The relative position of corn and soybean prices compared to precious metals and non - ferrous metals is low, and it is highly predictable that the US will reduce the planting area in 2026/2027 [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, CBOT soybeans rose significantly, while the Dalian soybean meal market declined from its high. The domestic rapeseed meal trend was weaker than that of soybean meal. Next week, the technical indicators of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bearish. In the international market, the Brazilian soybean harvest is accelerating, but attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall in South Mato Grosso. The Argentine drought is still intensifying. The USDA report next week will be a focus. The domestic soybean meal spot may enter a sales slump, and the Dalian soybean meal will likely continue to fluctuate in a low - level range [6][75][76] Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Market Trends This Week - CBOT soybeans rose significantly, initially falling due to the strengthening dollar and the Brazilian soybean harvest progress, then rebounding after the US biodiesel policy利好 and Trump's remarks on China's increased soybean purchases. The Dalian soybean meal market declined from its high, pressured by the slump in precious metals and the collective decline of commodities. The domestic rapeseed meal was weaker, with inventory rising as Australian rapeseed entered the crushing process and demand remaining stagnant [6] 2. US Market - US Soybean Export Situation - The US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 2% week - on - week but increased by 15% year - on - year. As of January 29, 2026, the export inspection volume was 1,310,559 tons. The export to China (mainland) decreased by 18% week - on - week but increased by 113% year - on - year. The proportion of exports to China in the total export volume decreased to 56.5% [13] 3. South American Market - Brazil and Argentina - **Weather and Crop Conditions**: In Brazil, most areas had showers, with varying rainfall in the east. The average temperature was nearly 2°C higher than normal. In Argentina, the western region had showers, while the east was dry, and the average temperature was 1 - 5°C higher than normal. The soybean harvest progress in Paraná, Brazil, was 14%, and in Mato Grosso, the estimated yield was adjusted upwards [20][27] - **Production and Sales Forecast**: StoneX expects Brazil's soybean production to reach a record 1.8 billion tons this year. Dr. Michael Cordonnier predicts Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production to be 48 million tons, with a tendency for further downward adjustment [26][28] - **Export Situation**: Brazil's soybean export volume in February is expected to be 11.42 million tons, higher than that in January and the same period last year. In the 2025/26 season so far, the EU's soybean import volume has decreased by 13%, with a decrease in the share from the US and Ukraine and a slight increase from Brazil [26][29] 4. Domestic Market - Inventory, Profit, and Consumption - **Inventory and Consumption**: As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 8.4082 million tons, with a theoretical crushable period of 25 days. It is expected to be 5.04 million tons by next weekend [41] - **Crush Profit**: The domestic spot and futures crush profits declined significantly this week, mainly due to the decline in soybean meal and soybean oil prices and the increase in import costs [41] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Inventory**: As of the 5th weekend (January 31), the domestic soybean meal inventory was 947,000 tons, an increase of 40,200 tons from last week. The rapeseed meal inventory from imported crushing was 100 tons, an increase of 100 tons from last week [49][55] - **Apparent Consumption**: The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 5th week was 1.8539 million tons, higher than 1.7306 million tons last week [51] Part 2: Market Outlook 1. Seasonal Analysis - Seasonal indices of US soybeans, US soybean meal, Dalian soybean meal, and live pigs are provided, but no specific analysis conclusions are given in the text [70][71][73] 2. Next Week's Market Outlook - **Technical Aspect**: The short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bearish [75] - **Fundamental Aspect**: In the international market, the Brazilian soybean harvest is accelerating, and the Brazilian premium is falling slightly. The Argentine drought continues. The USDA report next week will be a key point. The US soybean may fluctuate between 1050 - 1150 cents per bushel. In the domestic market, the soybean meal spot may enter a slump, and the Dalian soybean meal will likely fluctuate between 2700 - 2800 yuan per ton [76]

转自：贵州日报 播州区融媒体中心 刘静 蔡城池 "通过把田间新鲜农产品送上消费者餐桌，已带动1.2万余人次增收。"禹舜说，下一步计划将种植面积 扩大到五千亩，推进品牌建设与市场化销售。 像她们这样在采收期参与劳动的村民，每天约有150至200人。持续近五个月的采收，已为全村1300多户 参与农户带来可观"冬收"。 田边临时集散点，一筐筐碧绿的豌豆尖堆积如山，工人们快速称量、装车，与时间赛跑。"我们只采摘 最顶端、最嫩的部分。早上摘完，进冷库预冷打包，再上冷藏车，运到广州、深圳最快17个小时，基本 能实现'早上在地里，晚上在店里'。"贵州晶谷农业发展有限公司负责人曹兴强手持豌豆尖介绍。 正是这份对品质的坚持，让池坪豌豆尖在高端市场脱颖而出，价格比普通产品高出约20%至30%，但仍 供不应求。自2025年10月上市以来，日均稳定出货约一万斤，已成功进入北京、上海、广州、深圳及港 澳市场。预计本季总出货量将突破250万斤，销售额可达1200万元。 产业发展离不开当地党委政府的谋划。石板镇党委副书记、镇长禹舜介绍，经调研发现高品质豌豆尖市 场前景好，且当地冬季气候和土壤条件适宜。2025年，镇里整合土地资源，引进优良 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of ensuring agricultural product quality and safety during the Spring Festival, alongside the implementation of key variety governance work by 2026 [1][2] - The provincial agricultural and rural affairs department, in collaboration with the Guiyang Agricultural and Rural Bureau, conducted special supervision checks and on-site guidance in key planting bases for scallions and other important varieties [1] - The guidance team focused on identifying illegal use of banned pesticides and ensuring compliance with pesticide residue standards, while also promoting awareness of national regulations among producers [1] Group 2 - The joint guidance further strengthens risk prevention for agricultural product safety ahead of the festival and clarifies annual governance priorities [2] - The agricultural and rural bureau plans to implement detailed regulatory measures and reinforce the responsibilities of producers to ensure food safety for consumers [2]

中新网清远2月5日电 (张璐 黄艺)当前正值马蹄成熟采收的黄金时节，清远市丰阳镇大富头马蹄种植基 地(简称"基地")迎来集中采收旺季。走进基地，只见连片田垄间，颗颗饱满圆润的马蹄破土而出、色泽 鲜亮，村民们忙碌的身影与丰收的果实交相辉映，成为当地深入推进"百千万工程"、做强特色富民产业 的生动实践和鲜活缩影。 图为村民 采收马蹄。 连州市融媒体中心 供图 据悉，大富头村依托本地砂质土壤肥沃、水源洁净的自然禀赋，立足资源优势，深耕马蹄标准化与规范 化种植，创新采用"村集体+合作社+农户"联动发展模式，连片打造优质马蹄种植示范基地，推动马蹄 种植实现从"零散分布"到"规模集聚"、从"传统种植"到"科学种植"的双重升级，增强特色种植产业的核 心竞争力。 "今年我们基地马蹄长势整体向好，种植面积达300亩，预计总产量突破180万斤，亩产较去年有所提 升。"丰阳大富头种植专业合作社负责人吴礼标表示："我们全程采用绿色防控、测土施肥技术，种出来 的马蹄果形正、糖分足、口感脆甜，市场认可度很高，目前订单已经覆盖省内外多个渠道，产销两 旺。" 据介绍，近年来，丰阳镇以"百千万工程"为总抓手，锚定"特色兴农、产业富民"目标，聚 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the integration of cultural development with local industries in Zhanhua District, focusing on enhancing cultural soft power to support economic growth and rural revitalization [1][6] Group 2 - Zhanhua District has identified local cultural symbols and integrated them into the branding of its unique agricultural products, such as Zhanhua winter jujube and salt field shrimp, leading to a winter jujube industry output value exceeding 7 billion yuan and a 12.6% increase in the total output value of salt field shrimp [2] - The district has utilized various artistic forms, including literature and drama, to create a matrix of cultural symbols that promote local industries, enhancing product recognition and cultural appeal [2] Group 3 - In 2023, Zhanhua District launched a plan to promote "cultural rural construction," providing institutional support for artistic initiatives and talent development, while integrating culture with industry [3] - The district has established cultural centers and experiential venues, such as the Zhanhua winter jujube ecological picking park, which attracts over 300,000 visitors annually, combining cultural experiences with agricultural tourism [3] Group 4 - Zhanhua District employs a tailored approach for each town based on local cultural resources and industrial characteristics, promoting "cultural + industry" integration to enhance local economies [4] - The district has successfully developed a thriving industry around traditional crafts, such as net processing, generating over 300 million yuan in annual sales and creating employment for over 30,000 people [4] Group 5 - To address limited cultural resources and enhance industrial development, Zhanhua District has integrated local cultural institutions and engaged external resources, fostering a collaborative environment for artistic and industrial growth [5] - The district has hosted numerous cultural exchange events, attracting over 20,000 participants and promoting local cultural brands on a national and international stage [5]

强产业、拓销路、扶教育 湖南两会"代表通道"话乡村振兴 中新网长沙2月5日电 (张雪盈)如何拓宽农产品销路？如何让优质教育惠及乡村？2月5日，湖南省十四届 人大四次会议第二场"代表通道"开启，代表聚焦乡村振兴与乡村教育建言献策。 在湖南省株洲市芦淞区白关镇，丝瓜承载着许多人的生计期盼。湖南省人大代表、株洲市芦淞区白关镇 人民政府党建办干事张川回忆，在过去，白关丝瓜是各家种、各家卖，存在价格低、销路窄等问题，农 民收入普遍偏低。 产业振兴是乡村振兴的关键。当选湖南省人大代表后，张川多次在湘潭韶山与湘西十八洞村等地调研乡 村特色产业发展，在其看来，只有把分散的农户"拧成一股绳"，农产品的品牌效应才能达到最大化。 白关镇采取"村集体+合作社+农户"的模式，在龙凤庵村集中流转了1300多亩土地，建立2个高标准种植 示范基地，进行统一管理、统一销售，还尝试通过精深加工将丝瓜转化为气泡水、啤酒、护肤品等产 品，使其"身价"翻番。 "如今，白关丝瓜已走出国门，乡亲们都能守着家门口的产业，让日子越过越红火，生活越来越有奔 头。"张川说。 2月5日，湖南省十四届人大四次会议第二场"代表通道"开启。 张雪盈 摄 要想富，先修路。 ...

除了甜玉米，汝湖镇还系统谋划了更多特色农产品与"百千万工程"的结合路径。林冠辉建议，该镇通过 全域土地整治和镇属国企平台流转，实现土地连片管理和规模化种植；通过农业服务中心建设，提升农 产品种植的社会化服务水平；通过加工园区和电商中心建设，完成农产品到商品的高质量转化；通过全 镇运营模式，借助农文旅融合实现农业效益再提升。 "我们要利用好汝湖甜玉米种植规程，通过地方标准推动品质、产量和商品性全面提升。"林冠辉表示。 他建议汝湖镇重点从三个方面进一步打响甜玉米品牌：一是强化"汝湖甜玉米生产技术规程"标准应用， 以"汝湖经验"助推惠州甜玉米产业高质量发展；二是擦亮"惠州甜玉米之乡"品牌，通过规模化机械化种 植、提升精深加工能力和全镇农文旅运营，实现一二三产融合发展；三是塑造"汝湖甜玉米"文化品牌， 持续举办"玉米节"，推广玉米IP卡通形象，并积极申报地理标志认证。 2月4日，惠州市人大代表、汝湖镇南新村党总支部书记、村委会主任林冠辉接受记者采访时建议，惠城 区汝湖镇作为甜玉米之乡，打响甜玉米品牌，构建现代化农业产业体系。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Central Document emphasizes the need to modernize agriculture and rural areas, aiming to establish agriculture as a significant modern industry in China, particularly in Guangdong province [5][10][19]. Group 1: Agricultural Modernization - The document outlines four key areas for Guangdong to focus on in order to transform agriculture into a modern industry, which is crucial for achieving high-quality development and rural revitalization [11][9]. - Guangdong's primary industry, while not a large percentage of its GDP, has a significant total output value, ranking high nationally, indicating its potential as an agricultural powerhouse [8][10]. Group 2: Rural Development Initiatives - The document highlights the importance of improving rural living conditions and infrastructure, addressing existing shortcomings in public services and facilities [16][17]. - It calls for the implementation of a high-quality rural e-commerce development project, which includes enhancing logistics and storage facilities, and regulating agricultural product live-streaming sales [21][22][23]. Group 3: Cultural and Economic Significance - The promotion of local products, such as the unique Hakka products from Xingning, reflects the cultural richness and economic potential of regional specialties [34][35]. - The significance of chicken in local cuisine underscores its role in cultural traditions and economic collaboration between Guangdong and Guangxi, enhancing market reach [39][41].