步恢复至常规水平，将带动整体产能利用率恢复性提升，但部分企业月初存检修安排，将限制整体产能利 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 用率提升幅度。br2601合约短线预计在10550-10850区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10685 | 375 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 45603 | -3201 | | | 合成橡胶1-2价差 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 主流供价大幅下调，BR维持低位震荡运行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-1 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 11 31 -2 16% 70 97 2 82 -3 37% 70 19 （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %；高顺顺丁产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %； | . | | | 供给 | 中性 | （2）丁二烯方面，周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化、广州石化等装置维持停车状态，上海石化一套、茂名石化2#以及中化泉州石化装置陆续停车检修， | | | | | | 同时盛虹炼化降负，影响产量环比下降；顺丁橡胶方面，茂名石化顺丁装置常规检修，振华新材料、浙江石化顺丁橡胶装置重启后预计逐步恢复产出。 | | | | | | （1）半钢胎市场，周期内半钢雪地胎市场成交一般，社会库存充足，降雪天气稀少，需求无明显提升，渠道库存消化缓慢，补货意愿较低；四季胎方面， | | | | 需求 | 中性 | 整体交投延续平淡为主，市场需求 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 | 供应 | 周期内茂名石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修，浙江石化顺丁橡胶装置投料重启，振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置投料但尚未产出，产能利用率表现下降。本周期 • | | --- | --- | | | 高顺顺丁橡胶产量在2.82万吨，较上周期减少0.10万吨，环比-3.37%，产能利用率70.19%，环比下降2.45个百分点。周期内浙江石化、振华新材料顺丁橡 | | | 胶装置投料重启但尚未产出，茂名石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修。下周期预计浙江石化、振华新材料顺丁装置逐步恢复产出。（隆众资讯） | | | • 刚需方面，预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率存上涨预期，但整体涨幅受限。检修企业开工逐步恢复至常规水平，将带动整体产能利用率恢复性提 | | 需求 | 升，但整体销售压力不减，部分企业在月底及次月初，存检修安排，将限制整体产能利用率提升幅度。（隆众资讯） | | | • 替代需求方面，目前NR-BR主力合约价差维持在高位，替代需求仍维持在高位。因此顺丁橡胶整体需求端维持同比高增速。 | | | 截至2025年11月19日，国内顺丁橡胶库存量在3.15万吨，较上周期增加0.07万吨 ...

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-11-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10400 | 40 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 58829 | -4201 | | | 合成橡胶1-2价差(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 5 | 0 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2950 | 70 | | 现货市场 | | 10400 | -100 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 10350 | -100 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 10450 | 东(日,元/吨) -50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 10650 | 0 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 140 | 东(日,元/吨) -90 | | | | | 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) 东北亚乙烯价格( ...

中化新网讯 11月21日，中国合成橡胶工业协会（以下简称合成橡胶协会）在京召开成立生物基弹性体 分会筹备工作会。合成橡胶协会与20余家发起单位，共同探讨生物基弹性体产业发展现状和未来发展方 向。 正在筹建的生物基弹性体分会属于合成橡胶协会的分支机构，是生物基弹性体全产业链的合作平台，主 要围绕生物基弹性体的生产、研发与应用，促进成员间资源共享、共赢发展，提升生物基弹性体行业的 整体竞争力。 合成橡胶协会秘书长李锦山寄语分会，希望其在后续工作中围绕生物基弹性体特性，融合技术、市场与 组织各方面，链接科研团队与生产企业进行交流合作，同时转变工作思路，增强会员黏性，推进分会与 行业协同发展。 生物基弹性体分会（筹）副秘书长高艳表示，生物基弹性体分会将整合及协调产业上下游资源，搭建多 方交流分享平台，为行业创造健康的发展环境。 会上，各发起单位代表还就分会后续工作重点提出建议，呼吁国家层面给予政策及资金支持，加强创新 技术研发，构建材料性能与应用场景的行业标准体系，加快推进产学研用一体化建设，拓展下游民用市 场，促进生物基弹性体行业绿色化规范化发展。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase in the short term, and the inventories of both production and trading enterprises are expected to rise slightly [2]. - The cost of cis - butadiene rubber is slightly stronger, but the high - premium offers have difficulty attracting buyers, and the private price - holding strategy also has limited support from the market. The inventory of sample production enterprises has increased, while that of sample trading enterprises has changed slightly [2]. - Last week, tire enterprises had insufficient orders, with some arranging overhauls and others reducing production, which dragged down the capacity utilization rate. As the production of overhauled enterprises gradually recovers, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may show a restorative increase this week, but the overall demand growth is limited, and enterprise production control will restrict the increase [2]. - The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,550 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,395 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 10; the position volume of the main contract is 70,323 yuan/ton, up 2,076 [2]. - The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is 20 yuan/ton, down 10; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,960 tons, down 20 [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in various regions has decreased, with a range of 100 - 150 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 105 yuan/ton, down 10 [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil is 62.56 dollars/barrel, down 0.82; WTI crude oil is 58.06 dollars/barrel, down 0.94. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 730 dollars/ton, with no change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 573.13 dollars/ton, up 0.13; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 770 dollars/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,350 yuan/ton, down 190 [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.94 million tons/week, up 0.38; the capacity utilization rate is 72.53%, down 0.49 [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 39,800 tons, up 10,800; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.26%, up 1.01 [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.76 million tons, up 0.72; the capacity utilization rate is 72.64%, up 2.72 [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 284 yuan/ton, down 352; the social inventory is 3.15 million tons, up 0.07; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,630 tons, up 780; the trader's inventory is 4,880 tons, down 90 [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.05%, down 3.63; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 62.25%, down 2.25 [2]. - The monthly output of full - steel tires is 1,242 million pieces, down 72; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,168 million pieces, down 857 [2]. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 40.24 days, up 0.69; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.86 days, up 0.5 [2]. Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [2]. - In October 2025, the domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 million tons, or 5.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year [2]. - As of November 19, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.15 million tons, an increase of 0.70 million tons from the previous period, or 2.24% [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply and demand of BR are not strongly supported, and the cost side is difficult to maintain an upward trend. It is expected that the upside of BR will face pressure. Specific strategies include maintaining a short-selling mindset for BR2601 near 10,800 and implementing a strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on BR2601 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory BR Weekly - **Market Overview**: The price of butadiene, the cost side, rebounded after falling to the lowest level of the year. Some buyers entered the market, and the short - term upward trend attracted some downstream "bottom - fishing" behavior. However, the decline of natural rubber and commodities in the second half of the week dragged down BR, causing it to rise first and then fall [5]. - **Cost Side - Supply**: Zhejiang Petrochemical continued its maintenance, while Zhenhua New Materials' butadiene rubber plant restarted. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,100 tons (+3.88%), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points [5]. - **Cost Side - Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [6]. - **Cost Side - Inventory**: The factory inventory increased slightly, and the trader inventory changed slightly. As of November 19, the in - factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,630 tons, and the trader inventory was 4,880 tons [7]. - **Cost Side - Valuation**: The production profit of butadiene rubber rebounded. The average weekly theoretical production profit of high - cis butadiene rubber was 786.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 134.6 yuan/ton. The average price difference between butadiene rubber and Thai mixed rubber was - 4,070 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 176 yuan/ton [9]. Butadiene - **Production**: In 2025, from January to October, the domestic butadiene production increased by 15.5% year - on - year. In the current week, the production was 115,600 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons (+1.76%) from the previous period. The increase was mainly due to the new production capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical [10][14]. - **Price**: The domestic butadiene market fluctuated upward. After the price fell to the lowest level of the year, some buyers entered the market. The cost pressure of butadiene decreased slightly, and the profit of the C4 extraction process increased. In the Asian market, the price fell and then stabilized [20]. - **Import and Export**: From January to October 2025, the domestic butadiene imports increased by 39.1% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 80.6% year - on - year [22]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory of domestic butadiene increased significantly, with a week - on - week increase of 17.99%. As of November 20, the port inventory was 39,800 tons, an increase of 10,800 tons from the previous period [28]. Butadiene Rubber - **Production**: From January to October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production increased by 27% year - on - year. Zhenhua New Materials' plant restarted, and the capacity utilization rate increased. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,100 tons (+3.88%), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points [31][34]. - **Price**: The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rose first and then fell, with a price range of 10,000 - 10,800 yuan/ton. The production profit rebounded, and the average weekly theoretical production profit of high - cis butadiene rubber was 786.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 134.6 yuan/ton [38]. - **Import and Export**: From January to October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber imports increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and exports increased by 33.5% year - on - year [40]. - **Inventory**: The domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 31,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous period (+2.24%). As of November 19, the in - factory inventory was 26,630 tons, and the trader inventory was 4,880 tons [47]. Tires - **Production**: In October 2025, the production of semi - steel tires was 51.68 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 14.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.16%. The production of all - steel tires was 12.42 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 5.48% and a year - on - year increase of 17.84%. The tire exports in October decreased by 8.2% year - on - year [49]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased this week. As of November 20, the average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises were 45.86 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 days and a year - on - year increase of 7.69 days. The average inventory turnover days of all - steel tire sample enterprises were 40.24 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.69 days and a year - on - year decrease of 0.57 days [49]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased this week. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [51]. Automobiles - **EU Market**: In September 2025, the sales of EU passenger cars increased by 10% year - on - year to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles. The market share of pure - electric vehicles increased, and the share of gasoline and diesel vehicles decreased [56]. - **Chinese Market - Overall**: In October 2025, the production and sales of Chinese automobiles increased by more than 10% year - on - year. The production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October, the production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.2% and 12.4% [59]. - **Chinese Market - Segments**: In October, the production and sales of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and new - energy vehicles all increased year - on - year. The new - energy vehicle sales penetration rate reached 51.6% in October and 46.7% from January to October [63]. - **Chinese Market - Heavy Trucks**: In October 2025, the sales of heavy trucks exceeded 100,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 60%. The consecutive growth trend extended to "seven consecutive increases" [68].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：宏观利好预期支撑，胶价试探性稳步抬升 宏观利好预期支撑，胶价试探性稳步抬升 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 11 56 万吨（ 1 75% ），产能利用率为 72 53 %；高顺顺丁产量 2 92 万吨（ 3 88% ），产能利用率为 72 64 %； | | 供给 | 中性 | （2）丁二烯方面，周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化、广州石化、镇海炼化等装置维持停车状态，其余装置暂无新的明显变化，广西石化稳定释放产量， | | | | 影响总产量仍有增加；顺丁橡胶方面，振华新材料高顺顺丁橡胶装置重启，浙江石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修，茂名石化顺丁装置预计下周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth trajectory of China's synthetic rubber industry, projecting significant increases in production and market dynamics from 2025 to 2031 [1] Industry Summary - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's synthetic rubber production reached 774,000 tons in September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [1] - From January to September 2025, the cumulative production of synthetic rubber in China was 6.616 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 11.2% [1] - The report is published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China, which specializes in providing in-depth industry research reports and tailored consulting services [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: November 23, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber is expected to operate weakly within the valuation range. The supply of high - cis butadiene rubber has increased, while the demand from the tire industry has limited improvement, and the inventory has increased. The valuation logic has shifted, and the mid - term strategy is to go short on rallies [2][4][6]. - **Butadiene**: Butadiene is expected to be in a short - term volatile and long - term weak trend. The supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the inventory has increased significantly [9]. Summary by Directory Synthetic Rubber Supply - This cycle, Zhejiang Petrochemical continued its shutdown for maintenance, and Zhenhua New Material's butadiene rubber unit restarted. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.88%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points. Next cycle, Maoming Petrochemical's butadiene rubber unit is expected to shut down for maintenance [4]. Demand - **Tire Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased. Next cycle, it is expected to recover, but the overall demand increase is limited. - **Substitute Demand**: The NR - BR main contract spread remains high, and the substitute demand is also high, so the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a year - on - year high growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of November 19, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 31,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.24%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises changed slightly [5]. Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 9,700 - 10,700 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost [5]. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies without chasing short positions. The upper pressure is 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 9,600 - 9,700 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cross - variety**: The NR - BR spread is at a high valuation and is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7]. Butadiene Supply - This cycle, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 115,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.67%. Next week, the output is expected to be about 115,000 tons, a slight decrease [9]. Demand - **Synthetic Rubber**: The mid - term operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a year - on - year high. In December, with the reduction of butadiene rubber unit maintenance, the rigid demand for butadiene is expected to increase. - **ABS**: The inventory pressure is high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. - **SBS**: The operating rate has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains rigid with little change [11]. Inventory - From November 13 - 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased significantly, a week - on - week increase of 17.99%. The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 1.17%, and the inventory of sample ports increased by 37.24%. As of November 19, the inventory at East China ports was about 39,800 tons, an increase of 10,800 tons from the previous cycle [11]. View - In the short term, the low absolute price drives downstream periodic replenishment, the trading improves, and the price stabilizes. In the long term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamental pressure is still high, so it is expected to be in a weak pattern [9].