1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint - There is no clear core viewpoint explicitly stated in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Trading Volume Indicators**: The closing price of the main contract on 10/17 was 10,925, a daily decrease of 210 and a weekly increase of 145. The open interest of the main contract was 17,001, with a daily decrease of 1,410 and a weekly decrease of 12,074. The trading volume of the main contract was 57,027, a daily decrease of 19,877 and a weekly decrease of 7,984. The warrant quantity remained unchanged at 8,750 [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene basis was 125 on 10/17, a daily increase of 210 and a weekly decrease of 145. The 10 - 11 month spread was 290, a daily increase of 345 and a weekly increase of 400. The 11 - 12 month spread was 100, a daily increase of 15 and a weekly increase of 65 [3]. - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,050, unchanged from the previous day and week. The Transfar market price was 10,900, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly increase of 100. The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,200, unchanged [3]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The spot processing profit was 53, a daily increase of 26 and a weekly decrease of 26. The on - disk processing profit was - 73, a daily decrease of 182 and a weekly increase of 120. The import profit was - 79,618, a daily increase of 4 and a weekly increase of 184. The export profit was 424, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly decrease of 21 [3]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price on 10/17 was 8,622, a daily decrease of 25. The Jiangsu market price was 8,550, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly increase of 100. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,600, unchanged [3]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The carbon - four extraction profit data was incomplete. The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 124, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly increase of 100. The import profit was 350, a daily increase of 81 and a weekly increase of 278. The export profit was - 892, a daily decrease of 72 and a weekly decrease of 529 [3]. - **Downstream Profits**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 750, with incomplete daily data and a weekly decrease of 175. The ABS production profit data was incomplete. The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 760, a daily increase of 30 and a weekly increase of 30 [3]. 3.3 Variety - to - Variety Spreads - **BR - Related Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 2,306 on 10/17, a daily increase of 1,205 and a weekly increase of 11,924. The NR - BR spread was - 4,776, a daily increase of 1,320 and a weekly increase of 12,309 [3]. - **Other Spreads**: The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,500, a daily decrease of 130 and a weekly increase of 100. The 3L - butadiene - styrene spread was 3,400, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 50 [3]. 3.4 Intra - Variety Spreads - The butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 300 on 10/17, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 100. The butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 950, unchanged from the previous day and a weekly decrease of 50 [3].

率明显提升，但整体市场表现未见明显转好，为控制库存增加，部分企业仍处灵活控产状态，预计短期企 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 业装置运行平稳为主。br2512合约短线预计在10600-11300区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-10-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 10840 -85 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 74828 | | 57827 | | | 合成橡胶12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on butadiene rubber is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests a unilateral "oscillatory upward" trend and an arbitrage strategy of "long BR, short NR/RU" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of butadiene provide some support, and the profit has improved. The valuation of cis - butadiene rubber has recently been repaired. However, attention should still be paid to the impact of changes in production start - up and inventory clearance progress on the spot trading rhythm [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This cycle, Sinopec's high - cis butadiene rubber price was cumulatively reduced by 300 yuan/ton, and PetroChina's main sales companies reduced the price by 500 yuan/ton. The cost situation of cis - butadiene rubber has slightly improved. Due to device maintenance, Sinopec's short - and medium - term circulation resources are expected to decrease. Affected by macro news and downstream price - pressing purchases, the spot negotiation price has declined. At the end of the cycle, the price of the cis - butadiene rubber futures and spot markets rebounded rapidly [7]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, China's butadiene production was 102,200 tons (-2.36%), with a capacity utilization rate of 65.79%; high - cis butadiene rubber production was 30,000 tons (0.18%), with a capacity utilization rate of 74.82%. Multiple butadiene and butadiene rubber plants were in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or restart, affecting production volume [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels, but there are differences in shipment performance [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 308,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.99%; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 32,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%. There is concern about the inventory increase due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels and sufficient expected imports in October [3]. 3.4 Price and Spread Analysis - The BR cross - variety spread and month - to - month spread, as well as the seasonality analysis of RU - BR, NR - BR, and BR - SC, are presented in the report. The RU - BR spread was 3,770 yuan/ton (-7.94%), the NR - BR spread was 1,300 yuan/ton (15.04%), and the BR - SC ratio was 0.52% [3][12]. 3.5 Cost and Profit Analysis - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was - 124 yuan/ton, and by C4 extraction was 1,816.55 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 158 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 1.39% [3]. 3.6 Device Operation Analysis - Multiple butadiene and butadiene rubber plants are in different states of operation, maintenance, or shutdown. For example, many butadiene plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi and Sierbang are in a shutdown state, and some butadiene rubber plants like Qilu Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical are under maintenance [3][11].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期震荡运行 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：短期震荡运行 • 本周期山东益华、山东威特顺丁橡胶装置重启运行，齐鲁石化、扬子石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修，周内高顺顺丁橡胶产量及产能利用率总体窄幅变动， 但民营资源供应增量明显。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在3.00万吨，较上周增加0.01万吨，环比增加0.18%，产能利用率74.82%，环比提升0.13个百分点。 下周期暂无新装置重启及停车，但进入10月末后集中检修明显增多，特别是中石化系统齐鲁、扬子、茂名顺丁装置接续检修，短时中石化部分现货流通 资源预计趋紧。 （隆众资讯） 需求 • 刚需方面，预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率小幅波动为主，目前"双节"假期检修企业排产多已恢复至常规水平，整体市场表现未见明显转好， 为控制库存增加，部分企业仍处灵活控产状态。预计短期企业装置 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

Report Title - Synthetic Rubber Data Daily Report [3] Report Date - October 15, 2025 [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On October 14, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated slightly. The previous low prices attracted better trading, prompting some suppliers to raise prices. However, due to the weak performance of major downstream products, the market buying sentiment remained cautious, and the slightly higher price quotes had poor trading, which limited the upward range of the market [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber was 78.99%, a 1.41 - percentage - point increase from the previous working day. The theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber was a small loss of 157 yuan/ton [4]. - Although the short - term shutdown of an upstream device in Shandong affected the market in the morning, the impact was considered limited in the afternoon. The butadiene end had a large amount of external resources and good trading performance. The downstream remained on the sidelines due to trade frictions and the slightly weak natural rubber market [4]. - Considering that the trading center of private resources was significantly lower than the current ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina, some industry players were cautiously waiting for the price policy adjustment of Sinopec and PetroChina [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: The closing price of BR2511.SHF was 10,920 yuan/ton, down 1.28%; the settlement price was 10,825 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The trading volume was 65,011, down 42.59%; the open interest was 29,075, down 9.18% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The delivered price in the central Shandong region was around 8,550 - 8,650 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 8,200 - 8,300 yuan/ton. The market prices in Hangzhou, Jiangsu, and Shandong all decreased [4]. - **Crude Oil Market**: WTI was at 57.84 US dollars/barrel, down 5.24%; Brent was at 62.09 US dollars/barrel, down 4.81% [4]. Production and Profit - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 78.99% [4]. - **Production Profit**: The theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber was - 157 yuan/ton [4]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - **Market Sentiment**: Trade frictions and the weak natural rubber market made downstream players cautious. Some players were waiting for the price policy adjustment of Sinopec and PetroChina [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral: BR was in a consolidation operation; Arbitrage: After the spread widened again, pay attention to going long on BR and short on RU or NR [4].

据韩国《经济新闻》10月8日报道，韩国金融信息企业8日预测称，由于美国市场对卫生手套需求恢 复、天然橡胶供应链不畅、高附加值产品销量增加等，合成橡胶产品销售增长势头将持续至明年。今年 上半年，锦湖化学合成橡胶产品销售额为1.43万亿韩元，同比增加10%，在总销售额中占比为58.3%， 在韩国合成橡胶市场占有率上升至59%。随着下半年业绩上升，锦湖化学今年全年营业利润预估值为 3537亿韩元，同比增长29.6%，明年将进一步扩大至4333亿韩元。 （原标题：韩国锦湖化学合成橡胶产品销量大增） ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The output of domestic synthetic rubber is expected to increase month - on - month as most previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and some plants are operating at increased loads. The br2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,600 - 11,250 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. - In terms of raw materials, although there are planned overhauls of butadiene plants in October, the supply of butadiene remains abundant due to the resumption of previously under - loaded plants and imports. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly during the holiday due to maintenance, but it is expected to rise significantly this week as the plants resume operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract was 10,780 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the open interest of the main contract was 29,075, down 2,938; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was - 110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 3,070 tons, up 200 tons [2]. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers decreased, with the price from齐鲁石化 at 11,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from 大庆石化 at 11,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; and from 茂名石化 at 11,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 370 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Brent crude oil was at $63.32 per barrel, up $0.59; WTI crude oil was at $59.49 per barrel, up $0.59; the Northeast Asian ethylene price was $785 per ton, unchanged; the CFR Japan naphtha price was $566.75 per ton, down $10; the CFR China butadiene intermediate price was $1,020 per ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity was 155,400 tons, up 100 tons; the butadiene capacity utilization rate was 67.37%, up 0.72 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 27,750 tons, unchanged [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, up 6,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.41%, down 3.31 percentage points; the production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, down 1,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 55.26%, down 18.32 percentage points; the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic all - steel tires was 50.87%, down 14.85 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.87 days, up 0.36 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.7 days, down 0.23 days [2]. Industry News - From October 9th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased significantly compared with the previous period and the same period last year, and the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises also decreased. Some enterprises carried out maintenance during the holiday, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 800,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2]. - In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber decreased slightly. The capacity utilization rate was 69.91%, down 0.49 percentage points from the previous period and up 12.16 percentage points from the same period last year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trade friction disturbs the stock index, which opens lower but is expected to rebound after the initial decline, with the long - term upward trend remaining unchanged. The bond market influence is complex, and the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased allocation value when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. Different commodities have different trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Affected by trade friction, the stock index opens lower. It is recommended to sell put options near MO2512 - P - 7000 to collect premiums [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the spot bond interest rate rises. The T2512 oscillation range may be between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is advisable to wait for oversold opportunities [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Due to the continuous fermentation of Sino - US trade friction concerns, precious metals reach new highs. It is recommended to buy gold at a light position above 910 yuan and maintain a long - silver strategy above 50 dollars [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Given macro uncertainties, it is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Affected by Sino - US friction, steel prices are weakly sorted. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances weaken, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - **Coking Coal**: After the festival, coking coal prices have a phased correction. It is recommended to go short on coking coal 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented before the festival, and there is limited room for further increases. It is recommended to go short on coke 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: With the easing of tariff concerns, copper prices are strongly running. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [3]. - **Alumina**: The market supply is sufficient, and the spot price continues to fall. The main operation range is 2850 - 3050 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment boosts the price center to around 21000, and the main reference range is 20700 - 21300 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum quotation is firm, and the finished ingot price rises with the aluminum price. The main reference range is 20200 - 20800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have limited support for prices, and zinc prices oscillate. The main reference range is 21500 - 22500 [3]. - **Tin**: With the repair of the macro - sentiment, tin prices rise slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectations are volatile, and the main reference range is 120000 - 126000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - risk increases, and the industrial demand is still insufficient. The main reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The macro - sentiment repair promotes the oil price rebound, but the loose fundamentals suppress the oil price. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis [3]. - **Urea**: The market trading sentiment improves, but the short - term rebound lacks fundamental support. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and reduce the implied volatility at high prices on the option side [3]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the oil price support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on PX11 and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on TA and pay attention to the support near 4500, and conduct rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and there is short - term support. It is recommended to increase the spread at low positions, but the driving force is limited [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, but the cost side is weak, and the short - term processing fee improves. The trading suggestions are the same as those for PTA, and the main processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol**: The port inventory accumulates, and the supply - demand structure of MEG in the far - month is weak. It is recommended to short - sell EG01 at high prices, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 at high prices [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the short - term downstream demand for alumina is average. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **PVC**: The spot procurement enthusiasm is average, and the disk continues to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price driving force is limited. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate following benzene ethylene and the oil price in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the benzene ethylene price may be under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell on the rebound of EB11 and increase the spread at the low level of the EB - BZ spread [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support weakens, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to hold the seller of the call option BR2511 - C - 11400 [3]. - **LLDPE**: The disk price drops, and the arbitrage transaction is average. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The PDH profit is significantly repaired, and the transaction improves. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens significantly, and the transaction is acceptable. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Soybean and Related Products**: Affected by the changing Sino - US trade expectations, the supply pressure suppresses domestic prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of 01 near 2900 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The slaughter pressure of the breeding end is large, and the pig price remains low, showing a weak oscillating trend [3]. - **Corn**: As the supply increases, the disk price is under pressure and runs weakly [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by the fundamentals, palm oil stops falling and recovers. The main short - term oscillation range may be between 9000 - 9500 [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad, and the raw sugar price drops sharply. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the short term [3]. - **Cotton**: With the new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **Egg**: After the festival, the demand weakens, and it maintains a short - bias trend. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2511 contract at low prices and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The redness of late - Fuji apples is relatively light, and the high - quality apples have a significant price advantage. The main price runs near 8600 [3]. - **Jujube**: As the harvest time approaches, the long - short game intensifies, and it is bearish in the long - term [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the soda ash price runs weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on the rebound [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The production and sales performance is average, and the logic of the off - peak season in the peak season continues. It is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to pay attention to the raw material price increase situation during the peak production season and wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply increases, and with cost support, the price oscillates between 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The supply increases, and polysilicon is under pressure. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices when the price returns to the lower edge of the range, and pay attention to the implementation of capacity storage [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is weak, the fundamentals maintain a tight balance, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 7 - 7.5 million [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the br2511 contract is a price fluctuation between 10,800 - 11,400 yuan/ton. With the restart of previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants and increased production, and sufficient supply of butadiene, as well as the expected increase in tire enterprise capacity utilization, the market situation is expected to change accordingly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The main contract position is 32,013 lots, an increase of 3,155 lots. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 245 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,870 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers shows a downward trend. The basis of synthetic rubber is 280 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 62.73 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.49 dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 576.75 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.5 dollars/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 785 dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 dollars/ton. The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,020 dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 dollars/ton. The price of WTI crude oil is 58.9 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.61 dollars/barrel. The market price of butadiene in Shandong is 8,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.54 million tons/week, an increase of 0.01 million tons/week. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.37%, an increase of 0.72 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 27,750 tons, unchanged. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.43%, a decrease of 3.06 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 66.41%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons. The manufacturer's inventory and trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber are unchanged [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 55.26%, a decrease of 18.32 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 50.87%, a decrease of 14.85 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces. The monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.87 days, an increase of 0.36 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.7 days, a decrease of 0.23 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points compared to the previous period and 36.62 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points compared to the previous period and 0.78 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Some enterprises carried out shutdown and maintenance during the holiday, which affected the overall capacity utilization rate. In September 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the same period last year. From January to September, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a 20% increase compared to the same period last year. In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber slightly declined. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 69.91%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points compared to the previous period and an increase of 12.16 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - The previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and the domestic output has increased. Some plants have also increased their production loads, and the overall output is expected to increase month - on - month. In October, although there are maintenance plans for butadiene plants of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Guangzhou Petrochemical, the supply of butadiene is still abundant due to the recovery of previously under - loaded plants and imports. During the holiday, some domestic tire enterprises carried out maintenance, which significantly reduced the enterprise capacity utilization rate. As the maintenance enterprises resume production, the device capacity will be gradually released, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to increase significantly this week [2].