1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain in a high - level volatile range in the short term. The price is supported by cost, and the downside space is limited [2][4][5]. - The upward trend of butadiene prices is expected to slow down. Although the short - term absolute price is relatively low, which stimulates downstream replenishment and the prices in Asia and Europe are relatively strong, the spot market trading is weakening [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, the high - cis butadiene rubber plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to shut down, while the load of some butadiene rubber plants increased. The production capacity utilization rate remained at an absolute high level. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber in this cycle was 32,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.68% [5]. - The domestic butadiene rubber plants are expected to have limited changes in the next cycle [5]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the output of tire enterprises increased week - on - week as the production of overhauled enterprises stabilized. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased due to increased foreign trade orders, while the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises was restricted by inventory control [5]. - In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is gradually narrowing, and the substitution demand remains high, so the overall demand of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 14, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.50%. Both sample production enterprises' inventory and sample trading enterprises' inventory increased to varying degrees [5]. 3.1.4 Valuation - The current static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,600 - 12,100 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR price difference support [5]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral trading: The price will fluctuate at a high level, with the upper pressure at 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton (dynamically rising following the spot price of butadiene rubber), and the lower support at 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton (supported by NR - BR price difference and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety trading: The price difference between NR - BR is gradually narrowing [5]. 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - The estimated weekly production of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises in the current cycle (January 9 - 15, 2026) was 110,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70%. It is expected to increase slightly to about 113,000 tons next week [6]. - Butadiene production capacity is in a continuous expansion state to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed is slightly faster than that of downstream industries in stages [13][15]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the medium term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to remain high [8]. - ABS has large inventory pressure, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand [8]. - The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains at the rigid demand level with little change [8]. 3.2.3 Inventory - In the current cycle (January 8 - 14, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory increased slightly, with the total sample inventory increasing by 1.93% week - on - week. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 6.05% week - on - week, while the sample port inventory increased by 7.99% week - on - week [8]. 3.2.4 Viewpoint - Short - term low absolute prices drive downstream phased replenishment, and the trading situation has improved. Overall, butadiene remains relatively strong in the short term, but the upward trend is expected to slow down due to the weakening of spot market trading [6].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on the synthetic rubber industry dated January 15, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 12,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan [2] - The main contract's open interest for synthetic rubber was 99,182 contracts, a decrease of 1,394 contracts [2] - The spread between the second and third contracts of synthetic rubber was -60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan [2] - The total warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber were 6,530 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 12,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 12,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber was -190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [2] - Brent crude oil was at 66.52 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.05 dollars [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 725 dollars/ton [2] - The price of naphtha CFR Japan was 560.25 dollars/ton [2] - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,140 dollars/ton [2] - WTI crude oil was at 62.02 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.87 dollars [2] - The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 275 yuan [2] Group 3: Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 15.93 million tons/week, unchanged [2] - The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 71.31%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points [2] - The port inventory of butadiene was 41,300 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons [2] - The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric - vacuum distillation units was 54.57%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.75 million tons [2] - The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 79.15%, an increase of 1.97 percentage points [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was -335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 669 yuan/ton [2] - The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons [2] - The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, an increase of 50 tons [2] - The weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,770 tons, a decrease of 410 tons [2] Group 4: Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 65.89%, a decrease of 3.46 percentage points [2] - The weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 58.02%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces [2] - The monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] - The weekly inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 44.62 days, a decrease of 2.43 days [2] - The weekly inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 47.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days [2] Group 5: Industry News - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. Output increased as the production of overhauled enterprises stabilized, and some semi - steel tire enterprises had more foreign trade orders [2] - In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.35 million tons (10.38%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, a 4.65 - percentage - point increase from the previous month and a 2.68 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year [2] - As of January 14, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.49 million tons, a 0.18 - million - ton (5.50%) increase from the previous period [2] Group 6: Core View - The production cost of cis - butadiene rubber has increased significantly due to strong demand for raw material butadiene and export deal rumors, but downstream resistance to high prices has led to a difference in negotiations. The inventory of producers and traders has increased, and there is no sign of supply reduction in the short term. The downstream end lacks the willingness to stock up at high prices, and the inventory of producers and traders is expected to remain high [2] - The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly this week as the production of overhauled enterprises stabilizes. In the short term, some semi - steel tire enterprises will maintain a high operating rate supported by foreign trade orders, and the overall production schedule is expected to be stable. All - steel tire enterprises still control production to manage inventory [2] - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,900 - 12,650 yuan/ton in the short term [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils: Soybean oil and palm oil are rated as "sideways", while rapeseed oil is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [7]. - Protein meals: Soybean meal is rated as "sideways", and rapeseed meal is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [9]. - Corn and starch: Rated as "sideways" [11]. - Hogs: Rated as "sideways" [13]. - Natural rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [15]. - Synthetic rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [18]. - Cotton: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [19]. - Sugar: Rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [20]. - Pulp: Rated as "sideways" [21]. - Offset paper: Rated as "sideways" [22]. - Logs: Rated as "sideways" [24]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance, with different commodities having their own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. For example, in the hog market, short - term supply pressure remains, but long - term supply may gradually ease; in the oil market, although there are some policy and supply - demand changes, the overall supply is relatively abundant [14][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Views 3.1.1. Hogs - **Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is small in early January, but some February hogs may be sold in advance in mid - to - late January. Medium - term supply will be excessive until April 2026. Long - term supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand declines after New Year's Day, and the average weight of hogs decreases but is still higher than the same period last year. - **Outlook**: The near - term price is expected to be in a weak sideways range, while the far - term price may rise in the second half of 2026, but currently, the production cut is insufficient, so far - term positions should be cautiously taken on dips [14]. 3.1.2. Oils - **Logic**: Indonesia cancels the B50 biodiesel plan, and raises the export tax on palm oil. The domestic soybean market has active auctions, and the supply of rapeseed oil may change due to trade relations. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil are sideways, and rapeseed oil is sideways with a downward bias. It is recommended to consider buying on dips and palm oil - rapeseed oil spread trading [7]. 3.1.3. Protein Meals - **Logic**: International factors such as the USDA's report, Brazilian soybean production, and the probability of El Niño affect the market. Domestically, soybean auctions are active, and the supply and demand of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by trade and consumption. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal are sideways, and rapeseed meal is sideways with a downward bias [9]. 3.1.4. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The increase in supply due to smooth selling restricts price increases. However, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, the time required for imported grains, and downstream replenishment demand support prices. - **Outlook**: Sideways in the short - term [12]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market has a bullish atmosphere, mainly driven by macro factors. The supply is seasonally increasing, and the raw material price is firm, but the downstream demand is weak after the price increase. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the short - term [17]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The price trend is bullish, mainly due to the expected improvement in the butadiene market and the possible impact of policies on supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the medium - term [19]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Logic**: The long - term driving factors are the expected "tight balance" in the 2025/26 season and the possible reduction in planting area in 2026. The short - term adjustment space is limited. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the long - term [19]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with most major producers expected to increase production. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a downward bias in the medium - to - long - term [20]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include rising import costs and high downstream paper production. Bearish factors include difficult cost transfer, seasonal demand decline, and sufficient supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways [21]. 3.1.10. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The market is affected by factors such as new warehouse receipts, industry profitability, supply and demand, and downstream consumption. - **Outlook**: There may be pressure in the late period, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Logic**: The supply pressure will be marginally relieved in January - February. The price has support due to the inverted price difference, and there are some game points in the 03 contract. - **Outlook**: Sideways within a range [24]. 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the monitoring categories including oils and fats, corn and starch, hogs, cotton and cotton yarn, sugar, pulp and offset paper, logs, etc., but specific data details are not provided in the content [25][57][75]. 3.3. Commodity Index - On January 14, 2026, the comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend. The agricultural product index also had a certain increase, with a daily increase of 0.20%, a 5 - day increase of 0.44%, a 1 - month increase of 2.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.29% [183][184].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber in this cycle continues at a high level. The cis - butadiene market is boosted by the substantial increase in the raw material market, and the sales of production enterprises have improved. However, due to the existence of some unsold but already - sold inventory waiting to be picked up, the overall inventory level has limited changes. The continuous strength and rapid price increase of the raw material end have led to a significant increase in the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. Affected by the downstream's resistance to high prices, downstream may maintain rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises may increase in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, and with the gradual resumption of maintenance devices, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2603 contract is expected to be between 12,100 - 12,650 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,250 yuan/ton, with a change of 250 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; the position of the main contract is 100,576, with an increase of 5,258 compared to the previous period. The 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in total warehouses is 6,530 tons, with no change compared to the previous period [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different enterprises in different regions remain unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 150 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is 65.47 US dollars/barrel, with an increase of 1.6 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 61.15 US dollars/barrel, with an increase of 1.65 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 725 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 3.25 US dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 561.25 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 35 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,140 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 35 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,525 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 71.31%, with an increase of 0.14 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 41,300 tons, with a decrease of 3,400 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.57%, with a decrease of 0.37 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons, with a decrease of 0.75 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 79.15%, with an increase of 1.97 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 335 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 669 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.31 million tons, with a decrease of 0.14 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,350 tons, with an increase of 50 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,770 tons, with a decrease of 410 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 65.89%, with a decrease of 3.46 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 58.02%, with a decrease of 1.53 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 6.63 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 44.62 days, with a decrease of 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.36 days, with an increase of 0.31 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a decrease of 2.75 percentage points compared to the previous period and a decrease of 13.97 percentage points compared to the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points compared to the previous period and a decrease of 3.37 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 1.436 million tons, an increase of 0.135 million tons compared to the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber in December was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points compared to the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points compared to the same period last year. As of January 7, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 3.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This cycle, domestic cis - butadiene rubber production remains at a high level. The cis - butadiene market is boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of production enterprises have improved. However, there is some inventory that has been sold but not picked up, so the overall inventory level has limited changes [2]. - The continuous strength and rapid price increase of raw materials have led to a significant increase in the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. Affected by the downstream resistance to high prices, downstream may maintain rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises may increase in the short term [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week [2]. - The short - term fluctuation range of the br2603 contract is expected to be between 11,700 and 12,500 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 70. The position of the main contract is 95,318, with an increase of 72,576 [2]. - The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 65 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30. The total number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 6,530 tons, with an increase of 2,000 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 [2]. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,950 yuan/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 120 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 105. The price of Brent crude oil is not clearly stated in terms of change, and the new price is not given in a complete comparison [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 63.87 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.53. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 725 US dollars/ton, with no change. The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,105 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6.75 [2]. - The market price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,475 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25. The price of WTI crude oil is 59.5 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.38 [2]. - The butadiene production capacity this week is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene this week is 71.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14 [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 41,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,400. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.57%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.75. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber this week is 79.15%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.97 [2]. - The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber this week is - 335 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 669. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.31 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 [2]. - The manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,350 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 50. The trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 410 [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 65.89%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.46. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 58.02%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.53 [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 59. The monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 663 [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 44.62 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.43. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.36 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.31 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - According to Longzhong Information statistics, in December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [2]. - In December, the capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points from the same period last year [2]. - As of January 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% [2].

Report Date - The report is dated January 12, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This period, domestic cis - butadiene rubber production remained at a high level. The cis - butadiene market was boosted by a significant rise in raw material prices, and producers' sales improved. However, there was some inventory of sold but undelivered products, and the overall inventory level changed little. The continuous strength and rapid price increase of raw materials led to a significant increase in the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. But due to the downstream's resistance to high prices, they may maintain just - in - time procurement. It is expected that the inventory of producers and trading enterprises may increase in the short term. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. With the gradual resumption of maintenance devices, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2603 contract is expected to be between 11,700 - 12,500 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 12,070 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract was 22,742, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,597. The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 4,530 tons, with no week - on - week change [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai was 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong was 12,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 63.34 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.35 US dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan was 551.25 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 725 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,105 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil was 59.12 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.36 US dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 159,300 tons, with no week - on - week change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 71.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 41,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 54.57%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 79.15%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.97 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 335 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 669 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons; the producer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 50 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 410 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 65.89%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.46 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 58.02%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.53 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1.301 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 59,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5.831 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 663,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 44.62 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 47.36 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.31 days [2] Industry News - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points. In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. In December, the capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08%. Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene plants, and the supply has remained high. The cis - butadiene market has been boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of producers have improved [2] Key Points of Attention - There is no news today. The br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "Bullish" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward sentiment in industrial products supports the bullish logic for synthetic rubber. The narrowing spread between synthetic and natural rubber has a driving force for further regression. Against the backdrop of the elimination of backward petrochemical production capacity and overseas cracking units, coupled with strong cost - side support and inventory reduction in the current fundamentals, there is still upward potential for the unilateral price of BR [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of December 25, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,100 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton. In the Shandong market, the price of cis - butadiene rubber increased, with the spot price ranging from 10,600 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The factors driving the price increase included expectations of reduced production profits due to butadiene inventory reduction in January, strengthened cost support from butadiene export negotiations, and positive macro - level expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in January [4] 3.2 Price Comparison - In 2026, the ex - factory prices of domestic cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 3.48% week - on - week. Market prices in different regions also showed varying degrees of increase [7] - The prices of butadiene (BD) also increased. For example, the ex - factory price of Dalian Hengli increased by 4.73% week - on - week, and the market price in Hangzhou increased by 6.32% week - on - week [8] 3.3 Correlation Analysis - The price trends of synthetic rubber and related natural rubber varieties show different degrees of correlation. For example, BR has a high positive correlation with RU, NR, and butadiene, and the correlation coefficients vary in different time periods (1 - month and 3 - month) [9] 3.4 Device Status - In 2026, some butadiene production enterprises had maintenance or shutdown plans, such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang Petrochemical, etc. Some cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises also had equipment outages or future maintenance plans, like Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical [10][11] 3.5 Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - For butadiene, the current devices are in a shutdown state, and the output is expected to continue to decline. For cis - butadiene rubber, except for the shutdown of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical, other devices are operating at a high level, and the supply remains sufficient [3] Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, the market turnover has become increasingly sluggish in the early part of the month, with weakening terminal demand and reduced replenishment willingness. In the all - steel tire market, the inventory of some merchants increased significantly last month, and the ability to continuously purchase has weakened. Although some factories have announced profit - sharing policies in January, most are focused on digesting existing inventory, and some replenishment demand is postponed [3] 3.6 Inventory Analysis - The port inventory of butadiene decreased by 7.61% week - on - week, and the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders decreased by 1.08% week - on - week. Overall, both butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber are in a de - stocking cycle [3] 3.7 Investment and Trading Strategies - Investment view: Bullish. In the medium - to - long term, there is upward potential for the unilateral price of BR [3] - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, maintain an appropriate long position, but be wary of the risk of profit - taking pullbacks. For arbitrage, focus on going long BR and shorting NR/RU. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical situations [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: January 11, 2026 - Report Author: Yang Honghan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to experience high-level oscillations in the short term [2][4] - The upward trend of butadiene is expected to slow down [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical's high-cis butadiene rubber plants continued to be shut down, while the load of individual butadiene rubber plants increased, with the capacity utilization rate reaching an absolute high level. The output of high-cis butadiene rubber in this cycle was 31,800 tons, an increase of 800 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month-on-month increase of 2.55%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.15%, a month-on-month increase of 1.97 percentage points. It is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene plants in the next cycle [5] 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, some enterprises were still in the shutdown and maintenance state during the "New Year's Day" holiday this week, gradually resuming work around the 4th. The production scheduling did not operate normally for most of the week, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate to continue to decline. The shipment was slow during the cycle, and the inventory reduction rhythm was lower than expected. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will increase in a restorative manner in the next cycle, and the overall output will increase with the resumption of work and production of maintenance enterprises. Some enterprises continued to control production flexibly to control finished product inventory, which will limit the recent increase range [5] - In terms of alternative demand, the price difference between the main contracts of NR-BR is gradually narrowing, and the alternative demand remains at a high level. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year-on-year growth rate [5] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 7, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month-on-month decrease of 1.08%. The output of domestic butadiene rubber continued to be at a high level this cycle. The butadiene market was boosted by a sharp increase in the raw material market, and the shipment of production enterprises improved somewhat. However, there was some inventory waiting to be picked up after being sold. The overall inventory level changed little. Against the background of obvious differences in the negotiation focus, the inventory of individual sample traders decreased slightly during the downstream rigid demand price-pressing procurement follow-up [5] 3.1.4 Valuation - Currently, the static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,100 - 12,100 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectation of butadiene in futures trading, the futures are at a premium to the spot, and the upper limit of the static valuation is temporarily invalid. The valuation logic has changed from the cost side providing support for the lower valuation to the NR-BR price difference providing support for the lower valuation [5] 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: The unilateral trend has changed from being relatively strong in the previous period to high-level oscillations; the upper pressure is 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton (moving dynamically following the spot trend of butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 11,100 - 11,200 yuan/ton (supported by the NR-BR price difference and butadiene cost) [5] - Cross-variety: The price difference between NR-BR is gradually narrowing [5] 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - In this cycle (January 2 - 8, 2026), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 113,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month-on-month increase of 0.18%. During the week, plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, a unit of Shanghai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical 2, and Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical remained shut down, and there were no obvious changes in other plants, with a slight increase in weekly output. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be around 112,300 tons, a slight reduction compared to this cycle. There are no plans to restart plants next week, and the maintenance situation of Hainan Refining & Chemical needs further attention [6] 3.2.2 Demand - In terms of synthetic rubber, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber will remain at a high level in the medium term, maintaining a year-on-year high demand for butadiene. In the short term, with the reduction of butadiene rubber plant maintenance, it is expected that the rigid demand procurement volume of synthetic rubber for butadiene will remain at a high level [6] - In terms of ABS, the inventory pressure is relatively high, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant level, with relatively limited incremental demand [6] - In terms of SBS, the operating rate has increased slightly, maintaining rigid demand procurement for butadiene with little change [6] 3.2.3 Inventory - In this cycle (January 1 - 7, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory decreased slightly, and the total sample inventory continued to decline by 4.28% compared to last week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises fluctuated slightly, with a slight increase of 0.48% compared to last week. Although high-price transactions were slightly slow, affecting the slow inventory reduction, there was no obvious inventory pressure overall. The sample port inventory decreased significantly by 7.61% compared to last week. The arrival of imported ships was limited during the week, and the raw material inventory of downstream industries was normally consumed. Although there was some trading inventory, the market expectation was relatively strong in the later period, and it was in an inventory reduction cycle overall [6] 3.2.4 Viewpoint - In the short term, the relatively low absolute price has driven downstream periodic replenishment, and the transactions have improved. In addition, the prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe are relatively strong. Overall, butadiene is still relatively strong in the short term. However, due to the weakening of short-term spot market transactions, it is expected that the upward trend of butadiene will slow down [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current state and future outlook of the synthetic rubber industry in China, as reported by Zhiyan Consulting [1] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of synthetic rubber in China for November 2025 was 779,000 tons, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, China's synthetic rubber production reached 8,169,000 tons, reflecting a growth of 1.9% compared to the previous year [1] Group 2 - The article references several listed companies in the synthetic rubber sector, including Boshi Co., Yaxing Chemical, Yanggu Huatai, Shuangjian Co., Qixiang Tengda, Haida Co., Ruankong Co., Sinochem International, Sanlisi, Tongcheng New Materials [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is identified as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1] - The report titled "Market Supply and Demand Situation and Development Prospects of China's Synthetic Rubber Industry from 2026 to 2032" is mentioned as a relevant document for further insights [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: January 9, 2026 [3] Group 1: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Information Futures Data - BR main contract closing price on January 8 was 12,195, up 40 from the previous day and 675 from the week before [4] - Open interest on January 8 was 30,228, down 3,754 from the previous day and 11,033 from the week before [4] - Trading volume on January 8 was 167,637, up 29,390 from the previous day [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on January 8 was 24,330, down 30 from the previous day and up 840 from the week before [4] - Long - short ratio on January 8 was 6.21, down 1 from the previous day and 3 from the week before [4] Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety Data - Butadiene rubber basis on January 8 was - 195, up 160 from the previous day and down 175 from the week before [4] - Styrene - butadiene rubber basis on January 8 was 0, up 260 from the previous day and down 75 from the week before [4] - 02 - 03 spread on January 8 was - 32, down 5 from the previous day and up 5 from the week before [4] - 03 - 04 spread on January 8 was - 15, up 10 from the previous day and up 5 from the week before [4] - RU - BR spread on January 8 was 3,922, down 100 from the previous day and 160 from the week before [4] - NR - BR spread on January 8 was 870, down 125 from the previous day and 235 from the week before [4] Spot Data - Shandong market price on January 8 was 12,000, up 200 from the previous day and 500 from the week before [4] - Chuanhua market price on January 8 was 11,950, up 200 from the previous day and 500 from the week before [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on January 8 was 11,900, unchanged from the previous day and up 400 from the week before [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,415, unchanged from the previous day and the week before [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,635, unchanged from the previous day and the week before [4] Profit Data - Spot processing profit on January 8 was 110, down 4 from the previous day and 413 from the week before [4] - Import profit on January 8 was 312, up 194 from the previous day and 486 from the week before [4] - Export profit on January 8 was 361, down 168 from the previous day and 422 from the week before [4] Group 2: BD (Butadiene) Information Spot Data - Shandong market price on January 8 was 9,500, up 200 from the previous day and 882 from the week before [4] - Jiangsu market price on January 8 was 9,300, up 100 from the previous day [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on January 8 was 9,100, unchanged from the previous day and up 700 from the week before [4] - CFR China price on January 8 was 1,005, up 20 from the previous day and 40 from the week before [4] Profit Data - Ethylene cracking profit data was incomplete (N/A) [4] - C4 extraction profit data was incomplete (N/A) [4] - Butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on January 8 was 570, up 100 from the previous day and 900 from the week before [4] - Import profit on January 8 was 1,204, down 62 from the previous day and up 574 from the week before [4] - Export profit on January 8 was - 2,013, data incomplete for comparison [4] - Styrene - butadiene production profit on January 8 was 888, down 25 from the previous day and 150 from the week before [4] - SBS production profit on January 8 was - 392, down 30 from the previous day and up 480 from the week before [4] - ABS production profit data was incomplete (N/A) [4]