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我国经济总体产出保持扩张
Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points from June, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and extreme weather conditions [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, and the comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.2%, suggesting overall economic output remains in an expansion phase [1][4] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The production index and new orders index were recorded at 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, both showing a decline from June, while the new export orders index fell to 47.1% [2] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, with key sectors like equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintaining PMIs of 50.3% and 50.6%, indicating ongoing expansion [2][3] Price Trends - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw material purchase price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, both increasing from June [3] - The rise in prices was attributed to the increase in prices of major commodities such as coal and steel, which significantly impacted the manufacturing PMI [3] Service Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained above 50%, indicating continued expansion despite a slight decline from June [4][5] - The service sector's business activity index was stable, with certain industries related to travel and consumption experiencing high activity levels, while construction activities slowed due to adverse weather [4][5] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that macroeconomic policies should be adjusted to stimulate demand, particularly through increased government investment in public goods and infrastructure [4] - The upcoming summer consumption is expected to positively influence economic activity in August, supported by ongoing policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [5]
7月份制造业PMI为49.3% 我国经济总体产出保持扩张
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-07-31 16:12
Group 1 - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a month-on-month decline of 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, but remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion [1] - The production index and new orders index were 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, with declines of 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production but a slowdown in market demand [1][2] Group 2 - Extreme weather conditions in July, including heatwaves and floods, hindered outdoor construction and daily life, impacting market demand [2] - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, and the factory price index was 48.3%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating an improvement in overall market price levels [2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, while the consumer goods industry PMI was 49.5%, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.9 percentage points [2] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index was 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, indicating enhanced confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] - The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, but still within the expansion range, indicating overall stability [3] - The summer holiday effect positively impacted sectors related to consumer travel and spending, with indices for railway transport, air transport, postal services, and cultural and sports entertainment exceeding 60.0%, indicating rapid growth in business volume [3]
7月PMI数据解读 | 市场需求偏弱带动7月制造业PMI指数下行
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 09:37
根据国家统计局公布的数据,2025年7月,中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.3%,比6月下降0.4个 百分点;7月非制造业商务活动指数为50.1%,比6月下降0.4个百分点,其中,建筑业商务活动指数为 50.6%,比6月下降2.2个百分点,服务业PMI指数为50.0%,比6月下降0.1个百分点;7月综合PMI产出指 数为50.2%,比6月下降0.5个百分点。 要点解读如下 7月制造业PMI指数比上月下降0.4个百分点,基本符合市场预期。 主要原因是当月反映市场需求的新订单指数环比回落0.8个百分点至49.4%,再度进入收缩区间。我们分 析,背后可能有两个原因: 其他方面,近期"反内卷"牵动市场预期,国内主导的煤炭、钢铁等大宗商品价格快速上冲。这是当月制 造业PMI指数中两个价格指数快速走高的主要原因。我们预计,7月PPI会环比转正,同比降幅会收窄 至-3.0%左右。不过,当前工业品价格低迷主要是受消费需求不振和房地产投资下滑拖累,"反内卷"对 工业品价格及整体物价的推升作用有待进一步观察。另外值得注意的是,7月中型企业PMI指数继续回 升,而大型、小型企业PMI指数都出现0.9个百分点的回落,其中大型企 ...
制造业PMI短期有所波动 我国经济总体产出保持扩张——解读7月份PMI数据
Xin Hua She· 2025-07-31 08:53
Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in July showed a short-term fluctuation, dropping to 49.3%, while the overall economic output remains in an expansion phase, supported by non-manufacturing indices above 50% [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, and the new export orders index was 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points [1]. - Despite weak market demand, the production index was at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion for the third consecutive month [1]. Key Industries - The equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 1.1 percentage points but still in the expansion zone; high-tech manufacturing PMI was 50.6%, maintaining expansion for six months [2]. - Large enterprises showed stable expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [2]. Price Indices - The raw material purchase price index for manufacturing was 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone after four months below 50% [2]. - The factory price index was 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [2]. Market Expectations - The manufacturing production and operation activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, indicating increased confidence among manufacturers [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, with the service sector at 50% and construction at 50.6%, both remaining in the expansion zone [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity expectation index was 55.8%, reflecting optimism among most non-manufacturing enterprises [3]. Future Outlook - It is anticipated that construction activities will rebound as the rainy season ends, supported by policies aimed at boosting investment and consumption [4].
国家统计局公布:49.3%
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-07-31 07:31
Core Insights - The July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data indicates a slight decline in China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, reflecting economic pressures [1][3][4] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating contraction [1][3] - The production index and new orders index are at 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, showing a decline of 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [5] - Despite the decline, the manufacturing sector shows resilience with high-tech and equipment manufacturing PMIs remaining above the critical point [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from June, but still above the critical threshold [1][6] - The service sector remains stable, with a business activity index of 50.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points [6] - The summer holiday effect positively influences service-related sectors such as transportation and entertainment, with indices exceeding 60.0% [6] Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the fluctuations in the manufacturing PMI are primarily due to short-term factors, and the foundation for economic recovery remains solid [4] - The construction sector is experiencing a slowdown due to adverse weather conditions, but is expected to rebound as the rainy season ends [6][7]
2025年7月PMI数据点评:市场需求偏弱带动7月制造业PMI指数下行
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-07-31 06:09
Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In July 2025, China's manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from June[1] - The new orders index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, indicating a return to contraction territory[2] - The production index was at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, still in the expansion zone but affected by weak demand[2] Group 2: External and Internal Demand Factors - Weak external demand was reflected in the new export orders index, which dropped by 0.6 percentage points[2] - Domestic consumption growth has slowed, influenced by the real estate market adjustments and reduced effectiveness of previous growth-stimulating policies[2] - The service sector PMI was at 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points, with tourism-related sectors performing well but overall service sector affected by real estate cooling[4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The overall economic pressure is increasing, with manufacturing PMI indicating a downturn after two months of recovery[5] - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy support in the second half of the year[5] - Potential policy measures may include interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending to boost domestic demand and counteract external demand slowdown[5]
刚刚发布:49.3%
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-07-31 03:28
Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2][12][14] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw an increase to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, and small enterprises dropped to 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [2][15] - The production index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production [3][14] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but still above the critical point [8][12][17] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, while the construction sector's index fell to 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points [8][17] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 45.7%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand [8][12] Group 3: Price and Employment Indices - The input price index for non-manufacturing rose to 50.3%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating an increase in overall input prices [8] - The sales price index for non-manufacturing was 47.9%, down 0.9 percentage points, suggesting a decrease in overall sales prices [9] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.6%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in employment conditions [10] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Insights - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [11][18] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were 50.5% and 50.1%, respectively, contributing to the overall PMI output index [18]
国家统计局发布重磅数据
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-31 03:03
Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in July, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [3] Group 2: Price Indices - The price index for major raw materials increased, with the purchasing price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose above the critical point for the first time since March, suggesting a recovery in market conditions [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [1][4] - The service sector's business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with certain industries like transportation and entertainment showing strong growth due to seasonal effects [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, while the business activity expectation index for the service sector rose to 56.6%, indicating optimism among service enterprises [4] Group 4: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [5][6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the composite PMI, standing at 50.5% and 50.1% respectively [6]
刚刚发布:49.3%
中国基金报· 2025-07-31 02:42
Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2][21][22] - The production index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, while the new orders index was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [6][22] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [5][23][24] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [11][25] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, while the construction sector's index fell to 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points due to adverse weather conditions [14][25] - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing was 55.8%, indicating optimism among most enterprises regarding market development [17][25] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, but still indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [20][26] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were 50.5% and 50.1%, respectively, contributing to the comprehensive index's performance [26]
国家统计局:7月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.3%
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-07-31 02:40
央视网消息:国家统计局发布2025年7月中国采购经理指数运行情况。 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 7月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.3%,比上月下降0.4个百分点,制造业景气水平有所回落。 新订单指数为45.7%,比上月下降0.9个百分点,表明非制造业市场需求回落。分行业看,建筑业新订单 指数为42.7%,比上月下降2.2个百分点;服务业新订单指数为46.3%,比上月下降0.6个百分点。 原材料库存指数为47.7%,比上月下降0.3个百分点,表明制造业主要原材料库存量继续减少。 从业人员指数为48.0%,比上月上升0.1个百分点,表明制造业企业用工景气度略有回升。 供应商配送时间指数为50.3%,比上月上升0.1个百分点,表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间继续加快。 二、中国非制造业采购经理指数运行情况 7月份,非制造业商务活动指数为50.1%,比上月下降0.4个百分点,仍高于临界点。 分行业看,建筑业商务活动指数为50.6%,比上月下降2.2个百分点;服务业商务活动指数为50.0%,比 上月下降0.1个百分点。从行业看,铁路运输、航空运输、邮政、文化体育娱乐等行业商务活动指数位 于60.0%以上 ...