2 月份制造业采购经理指数有所回落 一、制造业采购经理指数有所回落 2 月份，制造业 PMI 为 49.0% ，景气水平较上月下降。从历史数据看，春节所在月份 的 PMI 大多会出现一些波动，尤其今年春节假期有所延长且全部落在 2 月中下旬，企业生产 经营受到一定影响，制造业市场活跃度总体有所下降。 （一）产需两端均有放缓。 生产指数和新订单指数分别为 49.6% 和 48.6% ，比上月下 降 1.0 个和 0.6 个百分点，制造业生产和市场需求有所回落。从行业看，农副食品加工、计 算机通信电子设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均位于临界点以上，产需景气水平保持扩 张；纺织服装服饰、汽车等行业两个指数继续低于临界点，市场活跃度偏弱。 （二）大型企业 PMI 继续扩张。 大型企业 PMI 为 51.5% ，比上月上升 1.2 个百分 点，大型企业生产经营保持扩张；中、小型企业受春节假期影响较大，本月 PMI 分别为 47.5% 和 44.8% ，比上月下降 1.2 个和 2.6 个百分点，景气水平回落。 （三）高技术制造业增长动能持续显现。 高技术制造业 PMI 为 51.5% ，继续位于扩张 区间，明显高于制造 ...

PMI 季节性回落，一季度力争开门稳 ——2026 年 2 月 PMI 分析 2026 年 3 月 4 日 国家统计局 3 月 4 日发布数据：2026 年 2 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.0%，比上月下降 0.3 个百分点。建筑业商务活动指数为 48.2%（前值 48.8%）； 服务业商务活动指数为 49.7%（前值 49.5%）。 核心观点：整体来看，2 月 PMI 回落主要受春节假期等季节性因素扰动，供需两 端均出现阶段性放缓，生产活动与订单指标同步回落，但幅度基本符合历史季节性 规律。从结构上看，电子通信等新动能行业仍保持较强景气度，而纺织服装、汽车 等传统行业需求仍偏弱，制造业内部呈现一定分化。价格方面，上游原材料价格指 数边际回落，出厂价格保持稳定，成本与售价之间的缺口有所收敛，若该趋势延续， 将对工业企业利润修复形成一定支撑。库存方面，产成品库存下降而原材料库存小 幅回升，整体库存仍处于波动状态，企业普遍采取"以销定产"的谨慎策略，库存 维持在相对紧平衡区间。展望未来，随着春节因素逐步消退，3 月制造业生产活动 预计会修复，生产指数和新订单指数预计将有所回升。外需方面，OECD ...

（来源：中国银河宏观） 国家统计局3月4日发布数据：2026年2月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。建筑业商务活动指数为48.2%（前值 48.8%）；服务业商务活动指数为49.7%（前值49.5%）。 核心观点：整体来看，2月PMI回落主要受春节假期等季节性因素扰动，供需两端均出现阶段性放缓，生产活动与订单指标同步回落，但幅度基本符合历 史季节性规律。从结构上看，电子通信等新动能行业仍保持较强景气度，而纺织服装、汽车等传统行业需求仍偏弱，制造业内部呈现一定分化。价格方 面，上游原材料价格指数边际回落，出厂价格保持稳定，成本与售价之间的缺口有所收敛，若该趋势延续，将对工业企业利润修复形成一定支撑。库存方 面，产成品库存下降而原材料库存小幅回升，整体库存仍处于波动状态，企业普遍采取"以销定产"的谨慎策略，库存维持在相对紧平衡区间。展望未来， 随着春节因素逐步消退，3月制造业生产活动预计会修复，生产指数和新订单指数预计将有所回升。外需方面，OECD综合领先目前指向到6月份我国出口 累计同比延续温和上行，意味着外需仍具有韧性；内需则仍有赖于政策进一步发力以及终端消费和投资需求的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December 2025, which exceeded expectations, signals a potential bullish market trend for 2026, reminiscent of the 2008-2009 market recovery [1][6][26]. Economic Indicators - The December 2025 manufacturing PMI reached 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking a return to the expansion zone after eight months [5][16]. - The non-manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points, while the composite PMI rose to 50.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points [5][16]. - Historical trends show that PMIs typically experience seasonal declines at year-end, but the current data reflects a significant "reverse seasonal" increase, indicating stronger economic potential for Q1 2026 [5][16]. Sector Performance - The production index and new orders index for December were 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, both showing substantial increases, particularly the new orders index, which rose above the critical point for the first time since the second half of 2025 [9][20]. - Industries such as food processing, textiles, and electronics showed production and new orders indices above 53.0%, indicating robust demand, while sectors like non-metallic minerals and black metal processing faced challenges with indices below the critical point [9][20]. Market Sentiment - The current economic environment is characterized by a strong willingness for production expansion, as indicated by rising PMI indices for production activities and procurement [17][20]. - The upcoming Spring Festival in 2026, occurring later than usual, has prompted companies to adjust production schedules to avoid disruptions, contributing to increased production activity [21]. Price Trends - The raw material purchase price index decreased by 0.5 percentage points, while the factory price index increased by 0.7 percentage points, suggesting improved pricing dynamics and potential profit margins for mid- and downstream industries [21]. - The new export orders index rose by 1.4 percentage points, reflecting enhanced resilience in Chinese exports and reduced dependency on specific markets [21]. Construction Sector - The construction business activity index surged to 52.8%, a significant increase of 3.2 percentage points, indicating a recovery in the construction sector after four months below the critical threshold [22][23]. - Factors contributing to this increase include favorable weather conditions in southern provinces and proactive measures by companies to accelerate construction progress [22][23]. Conclusion - The December 2025 PMI's unexpected rise suggests renewed policy momentum, with expectations for a strong economic start in Q1 2026, supporting a bullish outlook for the upcoming "spring market rally" [24][26].

Group 1: Economic Discrepancies - By the end of 2025, production indicators such as high furnace operation and PTA operation weakened, while manufacturing PMI rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%[3] - Consumer retail volume for automobiles and home appliances showed a downward trend, but the overall consumer goods PMI increased by 1 percentage point to 50.4% in December[3] - Cement shipment rates and rebar apparent consumption remained low, with December year-on-year changes of -1.8% and -10% respectively, yet the construction PMI rose by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%[4] Group 2: Factors Behind Economic Discrepancies - The shift in economic growth momentum has led to new sectors lacking high-frequency indicators contributing more to the economy, with AI-related industries boosting GDP by approximately 1.5 percentage points[5] - Consumer sectors face "demand overdraw risks," while service consumption, which lacks tracking indicators, has shown resilience, with service retail growth rising since September[5] - Previous debt management affected investment rhythms, with industrial product improvements reflecting raw material purchases rather than actual investments[5] Group 3: Economic Outlook for Early 2026 - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to face downward pressure, but service consumption may benefit from increased policy support, with domestic travel and spending during the New Year holiday exceeding 2019 levels[6] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to rebound in early 2026 due to reduced special refinancing bond issuance and new infrastructure policies, focusing on digital infrastructure and carbon reduction investments[6] - The delayed Spring Festival in 2026 may extend the "export rush" window, potentially boosting January export figures compared to the previous year[6]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in China showed signs of recovery in December 2025, with key indices rising above the expansion threshold, indicating improved economic conditions [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - In December 2025, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 50.1%, marking the first time it entered the expansion zone since April [1]. - Among the 21 surveyed industries, 16 reported an increase in PMI compared to the previous month, indicating improved production and operational conditions [1]. - The production index and new orders index were 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, both showing significant increases of 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI was 52.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, indicating positive growth trends [3]. - Equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries both recorded PMIs of 50.4%, rising by 0.6 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively [3]. - The procurement activity accelerated with a procurement volume index of 51.1%, entering the expansion zone [2]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, indicating an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector's economic conditions [4]. - The new orders index for non-manufacturing rose to 47.3%, up 1.6 percentage points, reaching the highest level this year [4]. - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing was 56.5%, reflecting a continuous increase for three months, indicating rising market confidence [4]. - The construction industry saw a significant improvement, with the business activity index at 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points from the previous month [4]. Composite Index - The Composite PMI Output Index reached 50.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point, indicating overall expansion in production and operational activities [5].

Core Viewpoint - The December PMI indices show a significant rebound in manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, driven by new economic momentum and consumer goods industries, while the effects of debt reduction are easing and export resilience is supporting growth [2][3][25]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, marking a return to the growth threshold after nine months [2][6]. - The production and new orders indices rose by 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points to 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively [6][28]. - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors saw improvements, with PMIs rising by 2.4 and 0.6 percentage points to 52.5% and 50.4% [12][18]. Group 2: Consumer Goods Sector - The overall consumer goods PMI rose by 1 percentage point to 50.4%, despite a significant decline in the automotive sector PMI, which fell by 5.8 percentage points [15][25]. - The textile and apparel industry PMI increased by 4.5 percentage points to 57.5%, reflecting improvements in travel-related demand [15][25]. Group 3: Construction Sector - The construction PMI rose by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, indicating a recovery in building activities due to easing debt reduction pressures and the implementation of new policies [3][18]. - The new orders index in the construction sector increased by 1.3 percentage points, while the employment index slightly declined [50]. Group 4: Export and Domestic Demand - The domestic orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1%, while the new export orders index improved by 1.4 percentage points to 49% [22][25]. - Port trade volumes increased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, maintaining a high level of activity [22][25].

Core Viewpoint - The December PMI index shows a recovery driven by new momentum and the consumer goods sector, with a reduction in the debt-extraction effect and resilient exports supporting the index [1][4][53]. Group 1: PMI Recovery - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, marking a return to the growth line after nine months, despite a decline in high-frequency indicators such as blast furnace operations and freight volume [1][5][53]. - The production and new orders indices increased by 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively, indicating improved manufacturing activity [1][5][53]. Group 2: Support from New Momentum - PMI in sectors related to new momentum showed significant improvement, although the sustainability of this trend requires further observation due to a lack of corresponding high-frequency indicators [1][12][54]. - Traditional industries like black metal rolling and chemical fibers saw a decline in PMI, while emerging sectors such as electrical machinery and pharmaceuticals experienced a rise [1][12][54]. Group 3: Consumer Sector Improvement - The overall consumer goods sector PMI increased by 1 percentage point to 50.4%, with notable recovery in areas less affected by demand exhaustion risks, such as textiles and apparel, which rose by 4.5 percentage points [2][15][54]. Group 4: Construction Sector Recovery - The construction PMI rose by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, indicating a reduction in the marginal impact of debt-extraction on investment, supported by the easing of special refinancing bond issues and the implementation of incremental policies [2][18][54]. - Both housing and civil engineering activities improved, with respective increases of 4.8 and 1.2 percentage points [2][18][54]. Group 5: Export Resilience - The domestic order index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1%, while the new export orders index improved by 1.4 percentage points to 49%, indicating ongoing resilience in exports [2][22][55]. - High-frequency indicators showed a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points in port foreign trade freight volume, maintaining a high level [2][22][55]. Group 6: Economic Growth Outlook - The combination of accelerating new momentum and proactive incremental policies suggests that economic growth will remain resilient, despite traditional momentum facing downward pressure [3][27][55]. - The manufacturing PMI's recovery, driven by new momentum and consumer sectors, alongside improvements in the construction PMI, indicates a positive outlook for economic activity [3][27][55].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI has returned to the expansion zone, indicating a recovery in both production and demand in the manufacturing sector, driven by steady growth policies and resilient exports [2][3]. Manufacturing PMI Overview - In December, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first return to the expansion zone since April [2]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index also improved to 50.2%, up by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a simultaneous improvement in non-manufacturing activity [2]. Factors Driving Recovery - The recovery in the manufacturing PMI is attributed to the ongoing implementation of growth-stabilizing policies and resilient export performance [2]. - The "two 500 billion" growth-stabilizing policies introduced in late September and early October have begun to show effects, with 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools fully deployed by October, boosting infrastructure and manufacturing investments [2][4]. Production and Demand Indices - The production index and new orders index for December were reported at 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, both showing significant increases of 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [2][3]. - The new orders index has risen above the critical point for the first time since the second half of the year, indicating expansion in both production and demand [3]. Enterprise Size Analysis - Large enterprises saw a PMI of 50.8%, up by 1.5 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone, while medium-sized enterprises had a PMI of 49.8%, up by 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery [4]. - Small enterprises, however, experienced a decline in PMI to 48.6%, down by 0.5 percentage points, reflecting greater pressure due to weak consumer demand [4][5]. Future Outlook - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 55.5%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points, indicating growing confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [5]. - The support from growth-stabilizing policies is expected to continue to bolster manufacturing sentiment, with projections suggesting that the manufacturing PMI may remain in the expansion zone into January 2026 [5].

Economic Overview - The overall economic sentiment in China is improving, with the composite PMI output index at 50.7%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month[3] - Manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone for the first time in 8 months, with indices for production and new orders rising by 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively[3] Sector Performance - Manufacturing PMI for December shows significant growth, with 16 out of 21 surveyed industries reporting an increase[3] - High-tech manufacturing saw the most notable improvement, with a PMI of 52.5%, up 2.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] Construction and Services - The construction sector's PMI rose significantly, with a business activity index at 52.8%, indicating a recovery driven by favorable weather and pre-holiday construction activities[3] - Service sector sentiment showed a slight recovery, but retail and catering industries remain under pressure, with business activity indices in contraction zones[3] Price Indices - The purchasing price index for raw materials fell slightly by 0.5 percentage points, while the factory price index increased by 0.7 percentage points, indicating a narrowing gap between supply and demand[3] - The PPI year-on-year decline is expected to narrow to between -2.1% and -2% as the PMI remains above negative territory for five consecutive months[3] Risks and Recommendations - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[2][13] - Investment recommendations suggest a strong buy for stocks expected to outperform the market by over 20% in the next six months[14]