Core Viewpoint - In July, Henan Province's industrial added value experienced a year-on-year real growth of 8.8%, indicating a robust industrial performance despite economic challenges [1] Summary by Categories Industrial Growth - From January to July, the industrial added value above designated size in Henan grew by 8.5% year-on-year [1] - In July, the mining industry saw an added value growth of 3.5% [1] - The manufacturing sector recorded an increase of 8.7% in added value [1] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry experienced a significant growth of 14.5% [1]

Economic Overview - Yunnan Province's industrial added value increased by 5.1% year-on-year from January to July [1] - Mining industry added value grew by 10.4%, manufacturing by 5.5%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 2.3% [1] Sector Performance - Tobacco industry added value rose by 1.8%, energy industry by 3.8%, and non-tobacco and non-energy industry by 8.6% [1] - Major industrial products saw significant production increases, with monocrystalline silicon and electrolytic aluminum growing by 21.6% and 12.7% respectively [1] Consumer Goods - Under the old-for-new policy, electric bicycles and solar water heaters increased by 39.0% and 28.7% respectively, while smartphones surged by 17.9 times year-on-year [1] Power Generation - Yunnan's industrial power generation reached 248.189 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [1] - The proportion of clean energy (hydropower, wind power, and solar photovoltaic) in total power generation was 85.4%, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous year [1]

Economic Performance - In July, the industrial production growth rate was 5.7%, down from 6.8% in June, indicating a slowdown in production[12][14]. - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for January to July was 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, a decrease from 2.8% previously[12][14]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July reached 38,780 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, which is a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[12][14][23]. Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment decreased by 1.4 percentage points, while manufacturing investment growth fell by 1.3 percentage points in July[20][28]. - Real estate development investment from January to July was 53,580 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points[21][28]. Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth for categories excluding automobiles was 4.3%, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns, particularly a decline in automotive sales[12][23][27]. - The recovery in dining consumption suggests that the overall decline in consumption is primarily driven by a drop in retail sales of goods[27][29]. Policy Outlook - The government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal policies and maintain moderately loose monetary policies to support economic recovery in the second half of the year[5][32]. - Continued focus on infrastructure and real estate investment is anticipated to stabilize fixed asset investment and support economic growth[5][32]. Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-US policies[6][33].

Report Title - 7-month economic progress with real estate investment under pressure - A panorama of China's economic data in July 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the first half of the year, the economy grew steadily. In July, industrial growth continued, with the added value of large-scale industries increasing by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year-on-year. The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year in July (unchanged from the previous month) and 0.2% month-on-month (narrowed by 0.2% compared to the previous month). The CPI remained flat year-on-year in July (0.1% in June) and increased by 0.4% month-on-month ( -0.1% in June), ending the consecutive month-on-month decline [2]. - Domestic demand still needs improvement, and external uncertainties are increasing. In July, the economy advanced steadily. The "anti-involution" optimized the supply chain and accelerated industrial upgrading. Service consumption supported the overall consumer market. Externally, trade protectionism and geopolitical risks intertwined, and continuous vigilance was needed for the impact of commodity supply chain disruptions and new US tariff policies on the second half of the year [4]. Summary by Directory Macro Events - On August 15, National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in July, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with production and demand continuing [6]. Growth: Steady Growth - In July, industrial growth continued. The added value of large-scale industries increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year-on-year. By category, the mining industry increased by 5.0% year-on-year, manufacturing by 6.2%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 3.3%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and the high-tech manufacturing industry by 9.3%, 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points faster than the overall large-scale industries respectively [10]. Inflation: Month-on-Month Improvement - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year (unchanged from the previous month) and 0.2% month-on-month (narrowed by 0.2% compared to the previous month). The purchase price decreased by 4.5% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. From January to July, the PPI decreased by 2.9% cumulatively. The CPI remained flat year-on-year in July (0.1% in June) and increased by 0.4% month-on-month ( -0.1% in June), ending the consecutive month-on-month decline. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months, reaching a new high since March 2024 [19][39]. Investment: Marginal Slowdown - From January to July 2025, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year (2.8% previously), and the month-on-month decline continued ( -0.63% in July). The investment growth rate of the secondary industry slowed down to 8.9% (manufacturing investment +6.2%), and the investment in the tertiary industry decreased by 2.3% (more affected by real estate) [53]. Production: Downstream Improvement - In the first half of 2025, the added value of large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year. The manufacturing industry increased by 7.0%. The downstream demand improved significantly, but the weakness of upstream raw material industries and export pressure were constraints [59]. Consumption: Structural Differentiation - In July 2025, the growth rate of the consumer market slowed down. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year (5.0% previously). The single - month retail sales in July increased by only 3.7% year-on-year, reaching a new low for the year. Service consumption showed resilience, while the growth of online channels slowed down [69]. Real Estate: Investment Under Pressure - From January to July, the national real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.8% compared to January - June. The sales side remained weak, but policy - driven structural optimization accelerated inventory reduction [78].

Economic Overview - The economy in July shows signs of weak recovery, with a potential trend of high-to-low performance throughout the year, indicating increased volatility due to external uncertainties[1] - The nominal GDP is projected to reach around 140 trillion yuan, with limited elasticity in growth rates and GDP deflator index in the second half of the year[12] Industrial Growth - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations, while month-on-month growth was 0.38%[14] - Manufacturing demand is recovering but showing signs of marginal slowdown, with the new orders index at 49.4%, indicating a decrease in manufacturing market demand[16] Consumer Spending - The retail sales of consumer goods in July grew by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in June, with a notable decline of 1.1 percentage points[19] - Factors affecting retail sales include reduced funding for the "old-for-new" policy, which decreased from 162 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 to 138 billion yuan in the second half[21] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288.229 billion yuan, growing by 1.6%, which is below market expectations of 2.7%[29] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2%, while real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 12.0%[29] Employment Trends - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, slightly up from the previous month, reflecting seasonal pressures from the graduation season[6] - Employment policies are being implemented to mitigate youth unemployment, including support for job creation in various sectors[6] Investment Outlook - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2% year-on-year, but July recorded a negative growth of -0.3%, the first negative reading since July 2020, primarily due to high base effects and uncertainties from trade tensions[45] - The overall investment environment remains cautious, with private investment declining by 1.5% year-on-year, particularly in the real estate sector[29]

Economic Overview - China's economy showed stable operation in July, but some economic indicators experienced a decline due to external complexities and extreme weather conditions [2][4] - The industrial added value for July increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a slowdown of 1.1 percentage points compared to June [2][4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, also down by 1.1 percentage points from June [2][8] Industrial Production - Industrial production growth slightly slowed in July, with the mining sector increasing by 5.0%, manufacturing by 6.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 3.3% [4][6] - The "Two New" initiatives and equipment upgrades contributed positively to industrial production, with shipbuilding and motor manufacturing seeing increases of 29.7% and 15.9%, respectively [4][6] - Despite the overall stability in industrial production, external pressures and internal competition may lead to a potential decline in growth rates [5][6] Investment Trends - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 288.229 billion yuan, growing by 1.6% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment up by 3.2% and manufacturing investment by 6.2% [11][12] - Real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 12.0% [11] - Investment in high-tech sectors such as aerospace and computer manufacturing showed robust growth, with increases of 33.9% and 16%, respectively [12] Consumer Market - The service sector maintained stable growth, with service retail sales increasing by 5.2% from January to July, while the overall consumer market showed signs of slowing down [8][9] - Policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods positively impacted sales, particularly in home appliances and communication devices [8][9] - The tourism and leisure sectors experienced significant growth, driven by increased consumer demand during the summer [8][9]

Economic Overview - In July, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee, the national economy maintained a steady growth trend, with production and demand continuing to rise, and overall employment and prices remaining stable [1][9] Industrial Production - In July, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month. The mining industry grew by 5.0%, manufacturing by 6.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 3.3% [2] - The equipment manufacturing industry saw an 8.4% increase, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.3%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points respectively [2] - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was at 49.3, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [2] Service Sector - The service production index rose by 5.8% year-on-year in July, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and IT services (11.9%), finance (8.7%), and leasing and business services (8.0%) [3] - The business activity index for services was at 50.0, indicating stable activity levels [3] Retail Sales - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [4] - Online retail sales amounted to 86,835 billion yuan, growing by 9.2% year-on-year, with physical goods accounting for 70,790 billion yuan, a 6.3% increase [4] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288,229 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [5] - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, while real estate development investment declined by 12.0% [5] Trade and Exports - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports reached 39,102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [6] - Exports amounted to 23,077 billion yuan, growing by 8.0%, while imports were 16,026 billion yuan, increasing by 4.8% [6] Employment - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to July, with July's rate at 5.2%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month [7] Consumer Prices - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [8] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8%, indicating a slight increase in underlying inflation pressures [8]

Economic Overview - In July, the national economy maintained a steady growth trend, with industrial production increasing by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month [30][31] - The mining industry saw a value-added growth of 5.0%, manufacturing grew by 6.2%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased by 3.3% [31] Industrial Production - Among the 41 major industries, 35 reported year-on-year growth in value-added, with notable increases in black metal smelting and rolling (8.6%), non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling (6.8%), and general equipment manufacturing (8.4%) [3][31] - High-tech manufacturing experienced a significant growth of 9.3%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 3.6 percentage points [31] Product Output - In July, out of 623 industrial products, 335 saw a year-on-year increase in output, including steel (12.295 million tons, up 6.4%), ethylene (3.12 million tons, up 9.1%), and automobiles (2.51 million units, up 8.4%) [4][5] - New energy vehicles production rose by 17.1%, indicating a strong demand in the electric vehicle sector [7] Sales and Exports - The sales rate of industrial enterprises was 97.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the export delivery value reached 1.2904 trillion yuan, a nominal increase of 0.8% [5][7] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 288.229 billion yuan in the first seven months, with manufacturing investment growing by 6.2% [34] - High-tech industries such as aerospace and computer equipment manufacturing saw substantial investment growth, with increases of 33.9% and 16.0% respectively [34] Trade Performance - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 39.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with exports growing by 8.0% [35] - Private enterprises accounted for 57.1% of total trade, reflecting an increase in their participation in the market [35]

Core Insights - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in China increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month [1] - The mining industry saw a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, manufacturing increased by 6.2%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew by 3.3% [1] - The equipment manufacturing industry experienced an 8.4% year-on-year increase, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.3%, outperforming the overall industrial added value by 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points respectively [1] Economic Type Analysis - State-controlled enterprises' added value increased by 5.4% year-on-year; joint-stock enterprises grew by 6.5%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises rose by 2.8%, and private enterprises increased by 5.0% [1] Product Performance - The production of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles increased by 24.2%, 24.0%, and 17.1% year-on-year respectively [1] Overall Industrial Performance - From January to July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.3% year-on-year [1] - In July, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was at 49.3%, while the business activity expectation index was at 52.6% [1] Profitability - From January to June, the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 34,365 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [1]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first half of 2025, industrial enterprises' revenue grew by 2.5% year-on-year, a decline of 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024[2] - In June 2025, industrial profits decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, a significant narrowing of the decline by 4.8 percentage points from May[3] - Cumulatively, industrial profits for January to June 2025 fell by 1.8% year-on-year, worsening by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first five months of 2025[3] Group 2: Cost and Profit Margins - The operating profit margin for January to June 2025 was 5.15%, down 0.26 percentage points from the same period last year[4] - Costs per 100 yuan of revenue were 85.54 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.07 yuan from the first five months of 2025, but still higher than the 85.27 yuan recorded in the same period last year[6] - The average collection period for accounts receivable in industrial enterprises was 69.8 days, a decrease of 0.7 days, indicating improved cash flow[7] Group 3: Sector Performance - State-owned enterprises saw a profit decline of 7.6% year-on-year, while private enterprises experienced a profit growth of 1.7%, reflecting a mixed performance under challenging conditions[8] - The equipment manufacturing sector showed resilience, with a 7.0% increase in revenue and a profit growth of 9.6% in June 2025, contributing significantly to overall industrial profit growth[14] - The midstream manufacturing sector's profit share has increased for four consecutive months, reaching 48.6% in June 2025, while downstream sectors continue to face weak demand[13] Group 4: Future Outlook - The implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and countering "involution" is expected to support industrial profit recovery in the second half of 2025[18] - Ongoing uncertainties in external demand and trade tensions, particularly with the U.S., may continue to pressure export-dependent industries[19]