Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while there are policy disturbances affecting the soda ash market, the fundamentals are limiting upward price movements [4][39]. - Supply of soda ash has increased week-on-week due to reduced maintenance schedules and new capacity coming online, leading to significant pressure on the supply side [4][39]. - Demand for soda ash has slightly decreased, particularly in heavy soda ash, while light soda ash demand remains stable [4][39]. Group 2 - Inventory levels for soda ash have significantly increased, with production company inventories rising sharply and social inventories slightly declining, indicating an overall surplus in supply [4][39]. - The short-term strategy for soda ash is expected to be characterized by low-level fluctuations, with a price range of 1180-1280 for the SA2605 contract [4][40]. - In the medium term, the market is expected to remain bearish due to persistent oversupply, with a focus on selling opportunities after price rebounds [5][40]. Group 3 - The production cost of soda ash has shown slight fluctuations, with the cost for ammonia-based production at 1308 yuan/ton and for co-production at 1648 yuan/ton [11][46]. - The overall operating rate for soda ash production has increased to 84.39%, with weekly production rising to 75.36 million tons [13][49]. - The soda ash sales-to-production ratio has decreased to 78.18%, indicating a decline in market activity [16][53]. Group 4 - The glass market has seen a decrease in supply due to maintenance on production lines, which has positively impacted prices [26][64]. - Demand for glass has slightly decreased, with increased speculative demand noted, particularly in the context of a weak real estate market [26][64]. - Glass inventory has decreased by nearly 7,000 tons week-on-week, indicating improved sales activity [26][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Bullish. Recent supply reduction and supportive supply - demand conditions suggest a positive outlook [3]. - Soda Ash: Neutral. Short - term supply - demand is average, and the rebound is more sentiment - driven [4]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Recently, the glass supply side has seen a significant reduction. With the continuation of energy consumption dual - control and anti - involution policies, the expectations of supply reduction and cost support are strengthened. Although the price is generally strong, the medium - to - long - term pressure pattern remains. At the end of the year and the beginning of the new year, policies are mainly favorable. Glass demand has resilience and supply reduction is obvious, while soda ash supply and demand are average [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bullish. The daily output of national float glass this week was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% from January 1st. The industry's start - up rate was 71.38%, a decrease of 0.67 percentage points from January 1st, and the capacity utilization rate was 75%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from January 1st. Two production lines were shut down for cold repair this week, and there are still many unexpected shutdowns for maintenance at the end of the year, with short - term reduction expectations continuing. Due to policy continuation, glass supply is restricted and cost support strengthens [3]. - Demand: Neutral. Demand has some support. Recently, the phased shipment of glass manufacturers has been good, but the terminal demand support is limited, and the market is mainly driven by rigid demand, with limited actual support for overall production and sales [3]. - Inventory: Bullish. The total enterprise inventory was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes from the previous period, a decrease of 2.37% month - on - month and an increase of 27.04% year - on - year. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis weakened oscillatingly, and the 01 - 05 spread strengthened oscillatingly [3]. - Valuation: Neutral. Valuation has been significantly repaired [3]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish. Policies are mainly favorable at the turn of the year [3]. - Investment View: Bullish. Recent supply reduction continues, and supply - demand has support [3]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, go long on dips; for arbitrage, mainly conduct reverse arbitrage [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish. Supply has increased significantly. This week's soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons, a rise of 8.11%. Among them, the light soda ash output was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons, and the heavy soda ash output was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons. The resumption of maintenance enterprises has significantly increased supply, and it is difficult for supply to increase at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year. Capacity expansion continues, and the medium - term oversupply pressure remains [4]. - Demand: Bearish. Short - term direct demand has weakened marginally. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has remained stable, while that of float glass has declined [4]. - Inventory: Bearish. Inventory has increased significantly. The total factory inventory was 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 164,400 tons from last Wednesday, a rise of 11.67%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 836,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 104,300 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 736,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,100 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,190 tons, a rise of 6.93% [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis rebounded oscillatingly, and the 01 - 05 spread oscillated [4]. - Valuation: Bearish. Valuation is average [4]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish. Policies are mainly favorable at the turn of the year, and market sentiment switches quickly [4]. - Investment View: Neutral. Short - term supply - demand is average, and the rebound is more sentiment - driven [4]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, no action; for arbitrage, mainly conduct reverse arbitrage [4]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, the price strengthened. The main contract closed at 1,144 (+57), and the Shahe spot price was 944 (-24) [6]. Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price oscillated. The main contract closed at 1,228 (+19), and the Shahe spot price was 1,199 (+77) [12]. Spread/Basis - Soda Ash: The 05 - 09 spread oscillated, and the basis oscillated downward [22]. - Glass: The 05 - 09 spread oscillated, and the basis oscillated downward [22]. 3.3. Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass Supply - Output has decreased. The reasons for supply reduction are the same as those mentioned in the main views. The production profit has improved slightly. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 186.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.00 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas was - 73.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.60 yuan/ton; that using petroleum coke was - 5.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.58 yuan/ton [25]. Glass Demand - Downstream deep - processing orders are average. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Real - estate mid - to - back - end completion data is poor. From January to November, the housing construction area was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%. The completion area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. Inventory has been reduced, and the relevant inventory data is the same as that in the main views [30]. Soda Ash Supply - Supply has increased significantly, and the relevant output data is the same as that in the main views. The profit of soda ash plants has changed. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.36%. The theoretical profit of the combined - soda process (double - ton) was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68% [36]. Soda Ash Demand - Demand is weak. The short - term direct demand has weakened marginally, with the daily melting volume of float glass declining and that of photovoltaic glass stabilizing. Inventory has increased significantly, and the relevant inventory data is the same as that in the main views [37].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Glass and Soda Ash Morning Report [2] - Report Date: January 12, 2026 [3] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3] Group 2: Glass Market Price and Spread - From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the prices of 5mm glass in major regions such as Shahe and Hubei showed an upward trend, with weekly increases ranging from 20.0 to 43.0. For example, the price of Shahe 5mm low - price glass rose from 950.0 to 993.0 [3]. - FG05 and FG09 contracts also increased during the same period, with FG05 rising from 1087.0 to 1144.0 and FG09 from 1191.0 to 1238.0. The FG 5 - 9 spread changed from - 104.0 to - 94.0, with a weekly increase of 10.0 [3]. - The basis of 05 contracts in Hebei and Hubei regions had different changes, with the 05 Hebei basis changing from - 137.0 to - 151.0 and the 05 Hubei basis from - 117.0 to - 154.0 [3]. Production and Sales - Shahe factory's glass production and sales rate was high, with middle - stream players actively purchasing. However, Shahe traders' sales were average, and the sales of futures - spot glass were poor. In Hubei, the factory increased prices, and the transaction was good [3]. - The production - sales rates in different regions were as follows: Shahe 151, Hubei 149, East China 93, and South China 110 [3]. Profit - The profits of glass production in North China and South China using natural gas had different trends. For example, the North China coal - fired profit increased from 72.9 to 101.7, and the North China natural gas profit increased from - 388.4 to - 351.7 [3]. Group 3: Soda Ash Market Price and Spread - From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the prices of heavy and light soda ash in major regions showed different trends. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash increased from 1140.0 to 1190.0, and the price of North China light soda ash increased from 1130.0 to 1150.0 [3]. - SA05, SA01, and SA09 contracts all increased, with SA05 rising from 1209.0 to 1228.0, SA01 from 1107.0 to 1141.0, and SA09 from 1274.0 to 1295.0. The SA01 - 05 spread changed from - 102.0 to - 87.0 [3]. - The basis of SA01 in Shahe increased from 33.0 to 49.0 [3]. Industry Situation - The upstream inventory of the soda ash industry increased significantly, while the middle - stream inventory decreased slightly. The output of Yuanxing's second - phase project increased [3]. Profit - The profits of North China ammonia - soda and North China combined - soda methods had different changes. The North China ammonia - soda profit changed from - 217.2 to - 200.6, and the North China combined - soda profit changed from - 287.2 to - 264.9 [3].

Group 1: Glass Market Analysis - The main contract for glass (2605) experienced a fluctuating increase this week, with the average price of domestic float glass at 1077 yuan/ton, up by 2.45 yuan/ton week-on-week, indicating stable transaction growth [2][8] - The operating rate of float glass enterprises is 71.96%, a decrease of 1.47% week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate is 75.63%, down by 1.34% [2][8] - Total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises is 55.518 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.37% week-on-week, showing significant destocking [10] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Demand for float glass improved due to enhanced market sentiment, with overall shipment conditions being acceptable [9] - The supply-demand contradiction in the glass market has eased, with increased cold repairs and rising speculative demand leading to inventory reduction [10] - The glass market still faces the challenge of high inventory, necessitating price reductions to achieve further production cuts [10] Group 3: Soda Ash Market Analysis - The main contract for soda ash (2605) also saw a fluctuating increase, with a current capacity utilization rate of 84.39%, up by 5.54% week-on-week, and a production of 753,600 tons, an increase of 8.11% [11][12] - However, demand for soda ash has decreased due to a decline in daily consumption of float glass and photovoltaic glass, with a notable increase in speculative demand driven by market participants [12] - Domestic soda ash manufacturers' inventory stands at 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 11.67% week-on-week, indicating significant accumulation [13] Group 4: Supply and Demand Challenges - The supply-demand contradiction for soda ash has intensified, with new production capacities being released, leading to increased supply while demand is on a downward trend [13] - If production is not curtailed through price reductions, soda ash will continue to face substantial fundamental pressures [14] - Short-term speculative demand has increased due to market participants' involvement, keeping soda ash prices fluctuating, but potential downward pressure remains if the fundamental situation weakens [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - **Soda Ash**: The market is expected to be in a mid - term sideways trend. Supply surplus, high forward premium in futures, and potential downstream production cuts are the core driving forces of pressure. The price is supported by limited downside space and suppressed by supply surplus and glass industry cuts. The trading rhythm follows glass, with lower volatility [2][4]. - **Glass**: In the short term, it is weak; in the medium term, it is in a sideways trend, and over - bearish views are not advisable. The market will switch between rising driven by production cut expectations and falling due to weak demand and weak basis. The valuation factor will be crucial in the future [5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - In the week, one float glass production line each in Southwest and Central China was shut down for cold repair, resulting in a week - on - week decline in production. As of January 8, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared to January 1st [5]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 21,330 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines was 15,010 tons/day. Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting volume of 14,490 tons/day, potential old - line复产 production lines have a total of 9,370 tons, and potential cold - repair production lines have a total of 9,420 tons/day [10][11][12]. - The current in - production capacity is about 150,000 tons/day, and the peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day [16]. Demand As of December 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, and home - decoration orders are mainly low - value single orders [6]. Inventory As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days compared to the previous period [6]. Price and Profit - Market prices are mostly stable, with some regions showing increases. The price in Shahe is about 1,000 - 1,020 yuan/ton (up 10 - 20 yuan/ton), in Central China's Hubei region is 1,020 - 1,060 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton), and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the prices of some large manufacturers are 1,110 - 1,250 yuan/ton (mostly stable, some slightly up 10 - 20 yuan/ton) [19][23]. - The profit with petroleum coke as fuel is about - 7 yuan/ton, and the profits with natural gas and coal as fuels are about - 186 and - 74 yuan/ton respectively [28][32]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - Market transactions have weakened recently, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.5 - 18.5 yuan/square meter, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [44][46]. Capacity and Inventory - There are 400 in - production production lines nationwide, with a total daily melting volume of 87,620 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%. As of Thursday this week, the sample inventory days were about 40.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 2.66%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.16 percentage points [51][56]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash production plants have carried out phased maintenance and production reduction. The current capacity utilization rate is 84.4%, and the weekly output of heavy soda ash is about 405,000 tons. The inventory is about 1.5727 million tons. As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.93% [60][62][69]. Price and Profit - The low - end price in Shahe area is 1,180 yuan/ton, showing an increase. Most manufacturers' ex - factory prices are stable, with prices in Shandong increasing by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 58 yuan/ton [77][78][84]. Basis and Month - to - Month Spread The rise in futures has led to a weakening of the basis [80].

Report 1: Glass Weekly Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Report's Core View Recently, with multiple production lines undergoing cold repairs, the daily melting volume of glass has dropped to a multi - year low (15.01 tons), and the support from rising fuel costs has boosted market sentiment and driven up prices. On the spot side, influenced by the positive futures market, many glass manufacturers have announced price hikes, and dealers' purchasing sentiment is decent. However, due to the traditional off - season, terminal orders are growing sluggishly, and the high overall industry inventory continues to limit the upside potential of prices. The market should focus on the progress of high - inventory digestion and actual spot trading performance. Given the large short - term fluctuations, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [13][14]. Summary According to Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of January 9, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1144 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 57 yuan/ton; the basis was - 124 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton [13][19]. - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 186.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 73.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.6 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was - 5.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.58 yuan/ton [13][29][32]. - Supply: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.92 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, a week - on - week decrease of 2; the operating rate was 71.95% [13][37]. - Demand: According to WIND data, from January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 78701.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; in November, the sales area of commercial housing was 6719.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. According to CAAM data, in November, the production and sales of automobiles were 353.16/342.90 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 2.76%/3.40%; from January to November, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3123.10/3112.70 million vehicles [13][43][46]. - Inventory: As of January 9, 2026, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 5551.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 134.80 million heavy boxes; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 261.36 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 95.28 million heavy boxes [13][51]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Glass Basis: As of January 9, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1020 yuan/ton, the closing price of the glass main contract was 1144 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 124 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton [19]. - Glass Inter - month Spread: As of January 9, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 120 yuan/ton (+18), the 05 - 09 spread was - 90 yuan/ton (+13), the 09 - 01 spread was 210 yuan/ton (- 31), and the open interest reached 154.85 million lots [22]. 3. Profit and Cost - Float Glass Profit and Cost: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 186.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 73.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.6 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was - 5.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.58 yuan/ton [29][32]. 4. Supply and Demand - Glass Production and Operating Rate: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.92 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, a week - on - week decrease of 2; the operating rate was 71.95% [37]. - Glass Demand: As of January 9, 2026, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.10%, unchanged from the previous week. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 78701.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; in November, the sales area of commercial housing was 6719.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the production and sales of automobiles were 353.16/342.90 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 2.76%/3.40%; from January to November, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3123.10/3112.70 million vehicles [40][43][46]. 5. Inventory As of January 9, 2026, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 5551.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 134.80 million heavy boxes; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 261.36 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 95.28 million heavy boxes [51]. Report 2: Soda Ash Weekly Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Report's Core View Last week, the overall supply of soda ash was stable, the load of some plants increased slightly, and the industry's operating rate rebounded. Meanwhile, the second - phase project of Alashan was officially put into production, and the market supply pressure continued. In terms of demand, the production capacity of photovoltaic glass and float glass showed a downward trend, the rigid demand for heavy soda ash decreased accordingly, downstream users generally adopted a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and most purchases were for low - price rigid needs, resulting in a dull overall trading atmosphere. Enterprise inventories continued to accumulate, and the pressure to sell goods increased significantly. Some manufacturers slightly lowered their quotes to promote sales. Although the price of local heavy soda ash increased slightly driven by the futures market in the later part of the week, the market still lacked substantial positive support, and the overall weak pattern remained unchanged [62][63]. Summary According to Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of January 9, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1188 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 66 yuan/ton; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1228 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton; the basis was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 47 yuan/ton [62][68]. - Cost and Profit: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 145.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.55 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.5 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2315 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [62][79][82]. - Supply: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 75.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.65 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.39%. The output of heavy soda ash was 40.45 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 tons; the output of light soda ash was 34.91 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.30 tons [62][90][93]. - Demand: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.92 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 tons, the number of operating production lines was 212, a week - on - week decrease of 2, and the operating rate was 71.95%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in November reached 289 tons [62][96]. - Inventory: As of January 9, 2026, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 157.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.44 tons; the available inventory days were 13.04 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.36 days. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 73.62 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.01 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 83.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.43 tons [62][101][104]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Soda Ash Basis: As of January 9, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1188 yuan/ton, the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1228 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 47 yuan/ton [68]. - Soda Ash Inter - month Spread: As of January 9, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 85 yuan/ton (- 1), the 05 - 09 spread was - 68 yuan/ton (- 5), the 09 - 01 spread was 153 yuan/ton (+6), and the open interest reached 154.85 million lots [71]. 3. Profit and Cost - Soda Ash Profit: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 145.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.55 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.5 yuan/ton [79]. - Raw Material Cost: As of January 9, 2026, the price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2315 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [82][85]. 4. Supply and Demand - Soda Ash Production: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 75.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.65 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.39%. The output of heavy soda ash was 40.45 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 tons; the output of light soda ash was 34.91 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.30 tons [90][93]. - Soda Ash Demand: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.92 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 tons, the number of operating production lines was 212, a week - on - week decrease of 2, and the operating rate was 71.95%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in November reached 289 tons [96]. 5. Inventory As of January 9, 2026, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 157.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.44 tons; the available inventory days were 13.04 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.36 days. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 73.62 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.01 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 83.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.43 tons [101][104]

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2026/1/9 | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/31 | | 2026/1/7 | 2026/1/8 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 2025/12/31 | 2026/1/7 | 2026/1/8 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 959.0 | 985.0 | 996.0 | 37.0 | 11.0 | FG05合约 | 1087.0 | 1148.0 | 1163.0 | 76.0 | 15.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 954.0 | 989.0 | 993.0 | 39.0 | 4.0 | FG09合约 | 1191.0 | 1253.0 | 1249.0 | 58.0 | -4.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 950.0 ...

| 中信期货有限公司 | | --- | 市场情绪较强,玻纯大幅拉涨 研究员: | 余典 | 陶存辉 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号:F03122523 | 从业资格号:F03099559 从业资格号:F03100815 从业资格号:F03144159 | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0019832 | 投资咨询号:Z0020955 | 投资咨询号:Z0021807 | 投资咨询号:Z0022199 | | 1.1 . 2 | | | | 钟 宏 从业资格号:F03118246 投资咨询号:Z0022727 玻璃纯碱大涨行情点评: 今日玻璃纯碱大幅上涨，盘中涨幅超7%。主要由于近期宏观和商品市场情绪较好，叠加成本端犹动，煤焦盘面先后涨停，使得玻璃纯碱价 格快速拉升。2026年中国人民银行工作会议于1月5日-6日召开，会议提出继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，宏观预期回暖，近期商品市场情 结偏强，文华商品指数快速上行，成本端动力媒价格企稳回升，煤焦盘面大幅拉涨带动玻璃纯碱价格快速上行。从供需基本面来看,玻璃 纯碱没有发生根本性改变。 纯碱需求端，重碱预计维持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for soda ash shows a significant increase, with the main contract rising to 1243.00 yuan/ton, up 5.16% [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - In the spot market, manufacturers maintain stable pricing while traders see a slight increase, with the price in the Shahe region rising to 1150 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 13 yuan/ton [2] - The fundamental analysis indicates a weakening in spot prices, with increased maintenance intentions from soda ash producers leading to a month-on-month decline in production; however, long-term supply pressure remains due to new capacity coming online [2] - Demand continues to decline overall, with expectations of a gradual recovery in market supply as industry maintenance concludes; inventory is likely to face phase accumulation pressure [2] - The float glass sector's supply-demand fundamentals remain weak, with no substantial recovery observed in the real estate sector [2] Market Outlook - The float glass production has slightly decreased, and inventory levels are declining; however, the market in East China remains stable with companies primarily focused on maintaining prices [2] - The domestic soda ash market is expected to show weak and stable adjustments, with high supply levels persisting and downstream demand remaining lukewarm, leading to a focus on demand-based inventory replenishment [2] - Soda ash manufacturers are experiencing high inventory levels, and the spot market performance is generally average, with expectations of slight strong fluctuations in the short term [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report presents daily data on glass and soda ash, including price changes, basis, spreads, production and sales, and inventory status [1]. Group 3: Summary of Key Points by Category Glass - **Prices**: On January 6, 2026, the low - price of 5mm large plates in Shahe was 946, unchanged from January 5 and down 4 from December 30, 2025; the low - price of large plates in Hubei was 970, unchanged from the previous two time points; FG05 contract was 1092, up 5 week - on - week and 11 day - on - day; FG09 contract was 1194, up 3 week - on - week and 11 day - on - day; FG01 contract was 956, up 6 week - on - week and 8 day - on - day [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: 01 Shahe basis was - 10 on January 6, down 10 week - on - week and 8 day - on - day; FG:1 - 5 was - 136, up 1 week - on - week and down 3 day - on - day; FG:5 - 9 was - 102, up 2 week - on - week and unchanged day - on - day [1]. - **Profits**: North China natural gas profit was - 392.4, down 1.9 week - on - week and 2.1 day - on - day; South China natural gas profit was - 188.1, unchanged; 01FG盘面North China natural gas profit was - 382.6, up 11 week - on - week and 4.6 day - on - day; 01FG盘面South China natural gas profit was - 178.3, up 12.9 week - on - week and 6.7 day - on - day [1]. - **Production and Sales**: Shahe's production and sales rate was 135, Hubei's was 118, East China's was 105, and South China's was 134. Shahe factory's production and sales were relatively high, but Shahe traders had average shipments at low prices, and the spot - futures shipments were poor; Hubei's factory transactions were weak, and the mid - stream spot - futures transactions in Hubei were also poor [1]. Soda Ash - **Prices**: On January 6, 2026, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1150, unchanged week - on - week and up 10 day - on - day; SA05 contract was 1190, down 23 week - on - week and up 13 day - on - day; SA09 contract was 1259, down 18 week - on - week and up 10 day - on - day; SA01 contract was 1111, down 24 week - on - week and up 16 day - on - day [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: SA01 contract basis was 39, up 24 week - on - week and down 6 day - on - day; SA:1 - 5 was - 79, down 1 week - on - week and up 3 day - on - day; SA:5 - 9 was - 69, down 5 week - on - week and up 3 day - on - day [1]. - **Cost and Profits**: North China ammonia - soda process cost was 1333.6, up 11.4 week - on - week and 1.9 day - on - day; North China ammonia - soda process profit was - 223.6, down 21.4 week - on - week and up 8.1 day - on - day; North China combined - soda process profit was - 277.2, up 5.7 week - on - week and 2.8 day - on - day [1]. - **Market Situation**: The spot price of heavy soda ash at the Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1110, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1150. The upstream inventory of the soda ash industry increased significantly on Monday [1].