免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整比不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观点 见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其他展机构的立场，在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所达品种买卖的出价或说 价，投资者据此投资，风险自担，本报告旨在发送给广发期货将定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进 任何形式的发布、复制,如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货" 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 证监许可【2011】1292号 | 木期货日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 量到三 | Z0019556 | | 2025年9月18日 | | | | | | | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | | 品种 | | 9月17日 | 9月16日 | 旅跌 | 张庆喝 | 单位 | | 原木2509 | | 770.0 | 770.0 | 0.0 | 0.00% ...

| 规格 | 市场 | 9 月 16 日 | 9 月 17 日 | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 轻质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1170-1270 | 1170-1270 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1130-1550 | 1130-1550 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1140-1320 | 1140-1320 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 1000-1200 | -1000-1200 | 0/0 | | | 西南市场 | 1200-1310 | 1200-1310 | 0/0 | | | 华南市场 | 1360-1430 | 1360-1430 | 0/0 | | | 东北市场 | 1300-1400 | 1300-1400 | 0/0 | | 重质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1240-1320 | 1250-1320 | 10/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1260-1320 | 1270-1320 | 10/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1280-1350- | 1280-1350 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 1000- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to move in a range in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: There are few maintenance periods for soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and terminal demand is average. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,235 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,334 yuan/ton, and the basis is -99 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average; bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Bullish Factors**: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a high level in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.37% to 1,334 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased by 0.82% to 1,235 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 13.16% to -99 yuan/ton [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,235 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is -96.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production method is -92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87.29%. The weekly production of soda ash is 761,100 tons, including 421,700 tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historical high [17][19]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with actual production of 1 million tons [20]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 103.23% [23]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [35]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [36].

纯碱现货：重碱河北交割库现货报价在1220左右，送到沙河1230左右 纯碱产业：工厂库存较大幅度下行，交割库大幅累库 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1143 1144 1143 1060 1104 1107 1234 1342 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 10合约 11合约 01合约 05合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(9/17） 昨日(9/16） 一周前(9/10） 一月前(8/18） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Bullish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [4] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bullish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish rebound [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish rebound [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances boost oil prices, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate policy decision. Supply - demand imbalances and OPEC+ production increases are key factors affecting the energy market. Different chemical products have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [1][8][13] - For most products, the market is influenced by a combination of macro factors such as Fed rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, and seasonal demand changes. Some products are in a state of supply - demand tight balance, while others face supply or demand - side pressures [3][33][37] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices rose overnight. WTI increased by 0.82%, Brent by 1.53%, and SC by 1.02%. The Brent - WTI spread widened to $4.65 per barrel [6][7] - **Basic Logic**: The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict and attacks on Russian oil facilities support short - term oil prices. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, and the end of the US crude oil consumption season leads to inventory accumulation, putting pressure on oil prices in the medium - to long - term [8] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC at [495 - 505] [10] LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 16, the PG main contract closed at 4,494 yuan per ton, down 0.42% [11][12] - **Basic Logic**: Although the cost - end oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, the upstream crude oil is in an oversupply situation. Chemical profit decline weakens demand, and inventory increases slightly [13] - **Strategy**: Add short positions. Focus on the range of PG at [4400 - 4500] [14] L - **Market Performance**: The L01 closing price was 7,209 yuan per ton, down 0.2% [17] - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is gradually shifting to a situation of both strong supply and demand. The agricultural film peak season is approaching, and demand support strengthens [19] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pullbacks. Pay attention to the range of L at [7200 - 7350] [19] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP01 closing price was 6,939 yuan per ton, down 0.1% [22] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves. The PP parking ratio rises above 20%, reducing supply pressure. Downstream demand enters the peak season, and raw material demand gradually increases [24] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pullbacks as supply pressure eases. Focus on the range of PP at [6900 - 7050] [24] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 closing price was 4,847 yuan per ton, down 0.9% [27] - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves, and the price rebounds from a low level. The supply is strong and demand is weak, and inventory has been accumulating for 12 weeks. However, more device maintenance plans are expected to reduce production [29] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pullbacks supported by low valuation. Pay attention to the range of V at [4900 - 5050] [29] PX - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6,864 yuan per ton, up 7 yuan [32] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side device changes are limited. PTA device maintenance is short - term, and demand improves. PXN is at a relatively high level this year. OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical conflicts affect the market [33] - **Strategy**: Go long on short - term dips and gradually close short positions. Focus on the range of PX511 at [6725 - 6820] [34] PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,565 yuan per ton, down 55 yuan. The TA01 contract closed at 4,648 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan [36] - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low. New device production and the resumption of previous maintenance devices increase supply pressure. The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is expected to boost demand. Supply - demand is in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [37] - **Strategy**: Close short positions. Look for opportunities to expand PTA processing fees and go long on short - term dips [3] MEG - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,378 yuan per ton, down 44 yuan. The EG01 contract closed at 4,319 yuan per ton, down 31 yuan [40] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly reduce their load, and overseas devices change little. Import is low. There is a consumption season expectation, and demand improves. Inventory is low, but new device production expectations cause the market to fluctuate weakly [41] - **Strategy**: Close short positions and look for opportunities to go short on rallies. Focus on the range of EG01 at [4255 - 4300] [42] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,317 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2,379 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan [44] - **Basic Logic**: Methanol device maintenance increases, and supply pressure is high. Demand shows signs of stopping decline. Social inventory accumulates, and cost support stabilizes [45][46] - **Strategy**: Do not short firmly. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of MA01 at [2365 - 2400] [47] Urea - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Short - term supply is tight, but long - term supply is expected to be loose. Domestic demand is weak, while exports are good. Inventory accumulates in factories and decreases in ports. Valuation is not high [4] - **Strategy**: The urea futures price is under pressure. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract in the medium - to long - term [4] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts drive up energy prices, and the approaching winter increases demand for natural gas [5] - **Strategy**: Cautiously bullish [5] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors boost the cost - end oil price, but asphalt supply is in excess, and the overall supply - demand is loose [5] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [5] Glass - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves, and enterprise inventory decreases. New production lines increase supply, and terminal demand is weak [5] - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish [5] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves, and enterprise inventory decreases for three consecutive times. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and supply pressure is expected to ease [5] - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish, medium - to long - term bearish on rebounds [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the soda ash market is experiencing significant price fluctuations due to supply-demand mismatches, with a downward trend in prices expected unless core supply issues are addressed [1] - Soda ash production reached a historical high in late August, driven by high industry capacity and improved orders from soda ash plants, despite a temporary decline during equipment upgrades [1] - The traditional summer maintenance period saw minimal actual maintenance, leading to the potential for further supply increases in the short term [1] Group 2 - Inventory levels increased from 1.8095 million tons in early July to 1.8221 million tons in the first week of September, influenced by significant price volatility in July [2] - The current strategy for terminal enterprises is to maintain just-in-time purchasing due to weak downstream product profits and lack of significant improvement in terminal demand [2] - Some upstream manufacturers have begun to lower prices to stimulate orders as supply remains high and pending orders decrease [2]

玻璃产销：沙河131，湖北135，华东108，华南107 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1121 1144 1121 1030 1115 1120 1237 1340 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 10合约 11合约 01合约 05合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(9/16） 昨日(9/15） 一周前(9/9） 一月前(8/18） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价大板 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 202 ...

局多头。操作上建议，纯碱主力短期逢低布局多单，注意操作风险。玻璃方面，供应端：需求端玻璃产线 数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 冷修数量不变，整体产量小幅抬升，整体产量还在底部，刚需生产迹象明显，利润回升，主要来自于现货 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-09-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1339 | 环比 数据指标 31 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1237 | 环比 30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 102 1280068 | 1 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) -61404 纯碱前20名净持仓 | 1338629 -284700 | -101682 -2128 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -154749 | 61877 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 6250 | -666 | | | 玻璃交易所仓 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the glass and soda ash industries is bearish [3][4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the glass and soda ash industries are poor, and prices are under pressure. The glass industry has increasing supply, potential demand improvement in the peak season, and high inventory. The soda ash industry has high supply, neutral demand, and weakened cost support [3][4] - The overall market sentiment is not good due to the "anti - involution" logic and weak reality. The trading strategy recommends a cash - and - carry arbitrage [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Glass**: Supply is slightly increasing with a daily output of 160200 tons (+0.38% compared to the 4th), an industry start - up rate of 76.01% (unchanged), and a capacity utilization rate of 80.08% (+0.3 percentage points). Demand may improve marginally in the peak season. Inventory decreased by 2.33% week - on - week to 61.583 million heavy cases. The investment view is bearish, and the trading strategy suggests a cash - and - carry arbitrage [3] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is at a high level with a weekly output of 761100 tons (+1.24% week - on - week). Demand is neutral with stable short - term direct demand but poor terminal demand. Inventory decreased by 1.35% week - on - week to 1.7975 million tons. The investment view is bearish, and the trading strategy recommends a cash - and - carry arbitrage [4] Part Two: Futures and Spot Market Review - **Glass**: The price fluctuated this week. The main contract closed at 1180 (-9), and the Shahe spot price was 1072 (+16). The basis fluctuated, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased [6][20] - **Soda Ash**: The price fluctuated this week. The main contract closed at 1290 (+25), and the Shahe spot price was 1197 (+5). The basis and the 01 - 05 spread both fluctuated [11][20] Part Three: Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Glass Supply**: Production increased steadily. The daily output was 160200 tons (+0.38% compared to the 4th). The start - up rate was 76.01% (unchanged), and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08% (+0.3 percentage points). The production profit fluctuated [23] - **Glass Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders were weak, and the real - estate completion data was poor. However, inventory decreased by 2.33% week - on - week to 61.583 million heavy cases [28] - **Soda Ash Supply**: Production reached a high level again, with a weekly output of 761100 tons (+1.24% week - on - week). The alkali plant profit fluctuated [31] - **Soda Ash Demand**: Demand was neutral. Short - term direct demand was stable, but terminal demand was poor. Inventory decreased by 1.35% week - on - week to 1.7975 million tons [32]

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑 PTA ★ 谨慎看空 加工费整体偏低，新装置投产预期叠加前期检修装置复产，开工负荷略有 提升，供应端压力有所增加；市场存"金九银十"消费旺季预期，需求端 略显偏好，下游聚酯及终端织造开工负荷持续回升。9 月 pta 供需紧平衡 预期四季度宽松，叠加美联储 9 月降息概率增加，地缘风险尚未解除，市 场风险偏好提升。OPEC+9 月按计划增产，油价震荡偏弱。基差偏弱，但 TA 加工费整体偏低，关注做扩加工费机会。策略：空单谨持，关注做扩 PTA 加工费机会。 乙二醇 ★ 谨慎看空 国内装置略微降负、海外装置变动不大，到港及进口相对较低；市场仍存 消费旺季预期，下游聚酯及终端织造开工负荷持续回升。同时乙二醇库存 整体偏低，对盘面价格有所支撑。9 月累库压力不大。乙二醇库存整体偏 低，对盘面价格有所支撑。近期市场交易新装置投产预期（久泰新材料近 期投产、裕龙石化 9 月底前投产），区间震荡偏弱，谨慎看空。策略：空 单持有，关注逢高布空机会。 甲醇 ★ 谨慎看空 本周整体检修量有所提升，开工负荷下滑但依旧维持高位；海外甲醇装置 负荷再次提升且处于同期高位，与此同时，甲醇月度到港量亦处近五年同 ...