Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints presented in the given content Glass Summary Price Changes - From July 30 to August 6, 2025, the prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions showed diverse trends. For example, the price of Shahe Anquan 5mm large - plate decreased from 1301.0 to 1181.0, a weekly decrease of 120.0 [1]. - FG09 contract price decreased from 1191.0 to 1083.0, a weekly decrease of 108.0; FG01 contract price decreased from 1320.0 to 1231.0, a weekly decrease of 89.0 [1]. Profit and Cost - North China coal - fired profit decreased from 329.6 to 245.8, a weekly decrease of 83.8; North China coal - fired cost increased slightly from 903.4 to 901.2, a weekly decrease of 2.2 [1]. - South China natural gas profit remained at - 129.1; North China natural gas profit decreased from - 141.1 to - 216.6, a weekly decrease of 75.5 [1]. Market Conditions - Shahe factory glass sales were average, with traders' low - price at around 1150, and shipments improved slightly. Hubei factory prices were around 1100, and trading was not good [1]. - Glass sales rates were 68 in Shahe, 67 in Hubei, 88 in East China, and 83 in South China [1]. Soda Ash Summary Price Changes - From July 30 to August 6, 2025, the prices of various soda ash products also changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1310.0 to 1270.0, a weekly decrease of 40.0; the price of Central China heavy soda increased from 1130.0 to 1230.0, a weekly increase of 100.0 [1]. - SA05 contract price decreased from 1452.0 to 1424.0, a weekly decrease of 28.0; SA01 contract price decreased from 1394.0 to 1370.0, a weekly decrease of 24.0; SA09 contract price decreased from 1311.0 to 1279.0, a weekly decrease of 32.0 [1]. Profit and Cost - North China ammonia - soda process profit increased from - 35.9 to - 96.7, a weekly decrease of 60.8; North China combined - soda process profit increased from - 158.6 to - 189.4, a weekly decrease of 30.8 [1]. Market Conditions - The spot price of heavy soda in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1230, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1270. Downstream customers made low - price rigid - demand purchases, and futures - spot trading was poor [1]. - Factory inventories of soda ash increased, and delivery warehouse inventories increased significantly [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. imposing additional tariffs on Indian goods, which raises the total tariff rate to 50%, in response to India's continued import of Russian oil. It also highlights the positive trend in China's retail industry, with a retail prosperity index of 50.1% in August, indicating expansion [1][6]. Group 1: Key News - The U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% additional tariff on goods from India, effective in 21 days, in response to India's import of Russian oil [1]. - The retail prosperity index in China for August is reported at 50.1%, a 0.5 percentage point increase, maintaining a positive trend with seven months above the expansion threshold [6]. Group 2: Key Commodities - Glass and soda ash markets are experiencing inventory digestion due to summer maintenance, with glass production inventory decreasing by 1.56 million heavy boxes to 51.78 million [2][14]. - The soybean market shows a good growth trend, with the U.S. soybean good rate at 69%, matching market expectations, while the flowering rate is at 85% [2][24]. Group 3: Financial Market Insights - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased to 1.697%, with the central bank's reverse repo operation net draining 170.5 billion yuan [3][10]. - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI fell to a nine-month low, increasing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3][10]. Group 4: International and Domestic News - Federal Reserve officials indicate a need to adjust monetary policy in response to a weakening labor market and inflation risks [4]. - The People's Bank of China reported a net liquidity injection of 236.5 billion yuan in July, signaling a shift towards promoting reasonable price recovery and stable growth [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From July 29 to August 5, 2025, the prices of various 5mm glass products decreased, such as the price of Shahe Anquan 5mm large - plate dropping from 1301.0 to 1190.0, a decrease of 111.0; the FG09 contract price dropped from 1188.0 to 1077.0, a decrease of 111.0 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profits of different glass production methods and regions also changed. For example, the North China coal - fired profit decreased from 355.6 to 249.0, a decrease of 106.7; the 09FG盘面 natural gas profit decreased from - 194.0 to - 295.2, a decrease of 101.1 [1]. - **Sales and Production**: Shahe factory's glass sales and production were average, with Shahe traders' low - price products around 1150, and the shipment improved slightly. The sales volume in Hubei was 63, in East China was 89, and in South China was 84 [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From July 29 to August 5, 2025, the prices of various soda ash products showed different trends. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased by 40.0, and then increased by 10.0 on August 5 compared with August 4; the SA05 contract price increased by 45.0 on August 5 compared with August 4 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profits of different soda ash production methods in North China changed. The North China ammonia - alkali profit decreased from - 34.6 to - 104.8, a decrease of 70.2; the North China combined - alkali profit decreased from - 141.7 to - 208.4, a decrease of 66.7 [1]. - **Market Situation**: The spot price of heavy soda in the Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1220, and it was around 1260 when delivered to Shahe. Downstream customers purchased at low prices for rigid demand, with a small amount of spot - futures transactions, and downstream customers placed low - price orders. The factory inventory of soda ash increased [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the far - month contracts may experience increased volatility. From a real - world perspective, the near - month contracts are under pressure due to large warehouse receipt pressure and are following the delivery logic [2]. - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and the 09 contract is facing delivery, with trading returning to reality. There is a possibility of a second round of policy expectation fermentation, but the high inventory in the middle reaches has triggered a negative feedback [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - Glass price range forecast for the month is 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. Soda ash price range forecast for the month is 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management (Glass)**: For high glass product inventory, to prevent losses, sell FG2509 glass futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management (Glass)**: For low glass procurement inventory, buy FG2601 glass futures at 1000 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601P1000 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Inventory Management (Soda Ash)**: For high soda ash product inventory, sell SA2509 soda ash futures at 1400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 60 - 70 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management (Soda Ash)**: For low soda ash procurement inventory, buy SA2601 soda ash futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Price Data - **Glass Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1332 (up 33 or 2.54% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1077 (down 9 or - 0.83%), and the 01 contract was 1232 (up 3 or 0.24%) [5]. - **Glass Spot**: On August 5, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1188 (down 2 from the previous day). Prices in Central and East China decreased by 20, and in Southwest China by 10 [6]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was 1427 (up 45 or 3.26% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1271 (up 18 or 1.44%), and the 01 contract was 1368 (up 28 or 2.09%) [7]. - **Soda Ash Spot**: On August 5, 2025, the heavy - alkali market prices in most regions remained unchanged, while the price in Qinghai decreased by 20, and in Shahe increased by 18 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, and profit margins of glass and soda ash, as well as the production and sales situation of glass and the inventory status of soda ash [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price and Price Changes**: From July 28 to August 4, 2025, the prices of various types of 5mm glass plates in different regions generally declined. For example, the price of the 5mm large plate of Shahe Security dropped from 1301.0 to 1207.0, a decrease of 94.0; the price of the 5mm large plate of Shahe Great Wall dropped from 1280.0 to 1156.0, a decrease of 124.0. The prices of FG09 and FG01 contracts also showed varying degrees of decline, with the FG09 contract dropping from 1223.0 to 1086.0, a decrease of 137.0 [1] - **Profit Margin**: The profit margins of different production methods and regions also changed. The profit of North China coal - fired decreased from 365.0 to 258.6, a decrease of 106.4; the profit of North China natural gas decreased from - 107.1 to - 206.3, a decrease of 99.2 [1] - **Production and Sales**: The production and sales of glass in different regions varied. The production and sales rate in Shahe was 41, in Hubei was 38, in East China was 83, and in South China was 89. The production and sales situation in Shahe and Hubei was relatively average, while that in East China and South China was better [1] Soda Ash - **Price and Price Changes**: From July 28 to August 4, 2025, the prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions also changed. The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1300.0 to 1250.0, a decrease of 50.0; the price of heavy soda ash in Qinghai dropped from 1060.0 to 980.0, a decrease of 80.0. The prices of SA05, SA01, and SA09 contracts also showed different trends [1] - **Profit Margin**: The profit margins of different production methods in North China decreased. The profit of North China ammonia - soda decreased from - 33.9 to - 122.2, a decrease of 88.3; the profit of North China combined - soda decreased from - 141.1 to - 246.4, a decrease of 105.3 [1] - **Inventory Status**: The inventory of soda ash factories increased [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of the black building materials market are still weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the terminal demand and cost - side support need to be closely monitored [3]. - After the "anti - involution" sentiment cools down, prices are expected to move closer to the real fundamentals, and the influence of demand - side changes on prices will gradually increase. Speculative funds are advised to be cautious, while hedging funds can take appropriate opportunities [11]. 3. Summary by Category Steel Products - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3204 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.031%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3417 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.470%), also with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and positions. In the spot market, rebar prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased, while hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai increased [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall commodity market was weak. In terms of macro - factors, the Politburo meeting's stance on real estate remained unchanged, and export competitiveness weakened. Rebar speculative demand declined with price drops and inventory increased, while hot - rolled coil demand slightly recovered, production rose rapidly, and inventory slightly accumulated. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are at a five - year low [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, up 0.96% (+7.50), with a decrease in positions. The weighted position was 94.81 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 774 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.92 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.88% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining, while non - mainstream country shipments increased and arrivals increased. The average daily pig iron output decreased, port inventory decreased, and steel mill imported ore inventory slightly increased. The steel mill profitability rate is high, and there is still demand support, while the supply growth is limited, and port inventory is trending downward [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) rose 0.17% to close at 5972 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) fell 0.14% to close at 5674 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin also decreased by 50 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, market funds had significant differences, and prices fluctuated widely. In the long term, the fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are still in an oversupply situation, and future demand is expected to weaken [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed at 8360 yuan/ton, down 1.65% (-140), with an increase in weighted positions. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 48980 yuan/ton, down 0.84% (-415), with a decrease in weighted positions [13][14]. - **Market Analysis**: For industrial silicon, production in all major producing areas has increased, and cost support is limited. Although polysilicon production is expected to increase in August, the price may be weak in the short term. For polysilicon, prices are affected by capacity integration expectations and corporate price - holding strategies, and are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe decreased by 55 yuan, and the national floating glass inventory decreased. The spot price of soda ash remained stable, and the domestic soda ash manufacturer inventory increased. The downstream demand for soda ash was lukewarm, and the supply slightly increased [17][18]. - **Market Analysis**: Glass prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and in the long term, they will follow macro - sentiment. If real estate policies are introduced, prices may rise. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [17][18]. Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: The prices of some coal and coke varieties increased, such as Shanxi Liulin low - sulfur coal up 50 yuan, and Ordos secondary coke up 50 yuan [19].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 重回基本面，价格大幅下行 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-08-04 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 02 PART TWO 期货及现货行情回顾 玻璃:重回基本面，价格大幅向下 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 产量增加。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.96万吨，比24日+0.38%。行业开工率为75%，与24日持平；行业产能利用率为79.78%，比24日+0.3个 | | | | 百分点。本周一条前期点火的产线开始出玻璃，供应量增长，下周暂无产线存在冷修或者点火计划。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 淡季需求整体承压，短期保有韧性，且随着价格向上，部分需求被刺激，产销改善。 | | 库存 | 偏多 | 库存去化明显，企业库存5949.9万重箱，环比-239.7万重箱，环比-3.87%，同比 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 研究员：侯帆 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 研究报告 纯碱周报 "反内卷"情绪持续降温，市场回归基本面 华龙期货投资咨询部 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 4 日星期一 库存情况纯碱库存压力仍存，截止到 2025 年 7 月 31 日，国 内纯碱厂家总库存 179.58 万吨，较上周一增加 1.22 万吨，涨幅 0.68%。 【综合分析】 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周纯碱主力合约SA2509 价格在1228-1432 元/吨之间运行， 价格回落。 截至 2025 年 8 月 1 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 下跌 184 元/吨，周度跌涨-12.78%，报收 1256 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 供给方面产量、产能利用率双降，截止到 2025 年 7 月 31 日， 上周国内纯碱产量 69.98 万吨，环比减少 2.40 万吨，跌幅 3.32%。 纯碱综合产能利用率 80 ...

南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报 ——交易回归现实 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月3日 一、玻璃核心观点 【供应】 目前玻璃日熔处于15.96万吨，整体稳定。暂无预期外变动，安徽冠盛 600 吨预计 7-8月点火，安全六线预计 7-8月点火，乌海中玻 800 吨一线预计 8-10 月前后冷修。 【库存】 玻璃厂内库存5949.9万重箱，环比-239.7万重箱，环比-3.87%，同比-13.88%。折库存天数25.5天，较上 期-1.1天。沙河中游库存快速增加；负反馈下，现货跟跌，产销疲弱。 【利润】 隆众数据，各工艺玻璃产线利润，天然气-150元，煤制气+138元，石油焦+138元。 【需求】 截至7月底，深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.55天，环比+2.7%，同比-1.55%；深加工持有原片库存13天，环 比+25%，同比+54.76%。本周各区平均产销84，上周123，环比上周明显走弱。 【策略观点】 交易回归产业现实，不过政策预期或在持续与降温中反复，市场情绪亦有反复。基本面看，供应端日熔小幅 回升，暂无预期外状况。当前玻璃累计表需下滑8 ...

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/08/01 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 1000-1400 | 51.76% | 97.8% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1500 | 39.03% | 75.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | | | | （%） | | | | 向 | | | | | | | | | | 库 存 | 产成品库存偏 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据 企业的库存情况，做空玻璃期货来 | FG2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 1250 | | | | 高，担心 ...