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马斯克的下一个万亿赛道?瑞银详解Robotaxi商业模式
硬AI· 2025-06-23 15:37
Core Viewpoint - UBS believes that if autonomous driving technology matures and receives regulatory approval, Tesla's Robotaxi network in the U.S. could expand to 2.3 million vehicles by 2040, generating annual revenue of $20.3 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Market Potential - The potential market for Robotaxi is estimated at $20.3 billion by 2040, with a projected after-tax operating profit of up to $86 billion [2][5]. - By 2040, the Tesla Network's Robotaxi fleet may consist of 2.3 million vehicles, with approximately 40% owned by Tesla and 60% contributed by individuals or fleet companies [5][7]. Group 2: Vertical Integration Advantage - Tesla's vertical integration allows it to develop its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, manufacture vehicles, and operate the network, making it the only company that can package "vehicle + software + network platform" together [2][10]. - This structural advantage enables Tesla to benefit from dynamic supply adjustments through its platform, mitigating resource idleness risks during peak and off-peak times [12]. Group 3: Cost Analysis - The average operating cost for Robotaxi is projected to be approximately $0.86 per mile by 2040, with a unit gross margin exceeding 70% at a charging rate of $3 per mile [13][14]. Group 4: Profitability and Valuation - UBS forecasts that the Tesla Network will remain unprofitable until 2027, but will achieve profitability by 2030, with an after-tax operating profit of $8.6 billion and a gross margin of 72% by 2040 [16]. - The valuation for Tesla Network is set at $350 billion, equating to a theoretical share price of $99, while Tesla's current stock price is around $321.87, indicating that the Robotaxi business accounts for approximately 31% of the current valuation [19].
马斯克的下一个万亿赛道?瑞银详解Robotaxi商业模式
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-23 09:38
Core Insights - Investors are increasingly focused on Tesla's Robotaxi service following its launch in Austin, which currently operates with 10 vehicles and has a unified fare of $4.20 [1][3] - UBS estimates that if everything goes as planned, Tesla's Robotaxi network could expand to 2.3 million vehicles by 2040, generating annual revenue of $203 billion and contributing up to $86 billion in after-tax operating profit [1][3][17] - UBS has raised Tesla's target price from $190 to $215, valuing the Tesla Network business at $350 billion, despite maintaining a "sell" rating due to concerns about current valuation levels [1][17] Business Model and Revenue Potential - The Robotaxi fleet is projected to consist of 40% Tesla-owned vehicles and 60% contributed by individual owners or fleet companies, similar to an Airbnb model [5][11] - The average operational cost for Robotaxi is estimated at $0.86 per mile, with a potential gross margin exceeding 70% at a fare of $3 per mile [16][19] - By 2040, total annual revenue for the Tesla Network is expected to reach $203 billion, with $143 billion from the owned fleet and $60 billion from contributed vehicles [5][17] Competitive Advantage - Tesla's vertical integration, including in-house development of the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, vehicle manufacturing, and operational platform, distinguishes it from competitors like Waymo and Mobileye [11][18] - This integration allows Tesla to dynamically adjust supply through its platform, mitigating resource idling risks during peak and off-peak times [15][18] Financial Projections - Tesla Network is expected to remain unprofitable until 2027, but profitability is anticipated by 2030, with a projected after-tax operating profit of $8.6 billion by 2040 [17][18] - The contribution from the fleet segment is expected to have a profit margin of 92%, becoming a significant cash flow source for the company [17][18] Valuation Insights - UBS's valuation of the Tesla Network at $350 billion implies that this business accounts for approximately 31% of Tesla's current stock price of $321.87 [17][18] - The potential for Robotaxi to disrupt the industry is significant, but the realization of this potential is expected to take time due to various uncertainties [18]
【特稿】特斯拉无人驾驶出租车美国得州试上路
Xin Hua She· 2025-06-23 07:35
Core Insights - Tesla has launched a trial of approximately 10 autonomous taxis in Austin, Texas, offering rides for a flat fee of $4.2 per trip, marking the company's first paid service for autonomous taxis [1] - The trial involves select users, including influencers and investors, who can request rides through Tesla's app, with a safety officer present in the passenger seat [1] - Elon Musk anticipates rapid expansion of the autonomous taxi service to other cities, potentially reaching hundreds of thousands of vehicles on the road by next year, although industry experts highlight significant challenges ahead for widespread adoption [1][2] Company Summary - Tesla's autonomous taxi service is currently limited to specific areas in Austin, avoiding adverse weather and complex intersections, and does not allow passengers under 18 [1] - The vehicles used for the service are the latest Model Y, with a safety officer monitoring the driving conditions [1] Industry Summary - Analysts suggest that the successful rollout of autonomous taxi services may take several years, with estimates indicating that widespread availability could be as far off as 2028 [2] - Experts from Carnegie Mellon University emphasize that the development of a fully operational autonomous taxi industry will require years, if not decades, despite any initial successes [2]
印裔1号位删 Karpathy 团队90%代码、算力暴涨 50 倍!马斯克 Robotaxi 10年终上线,30 元乘车体验刷屏
AI前线· 2025-06-23 07:09
Core Viewpoint - Tesla has officially launched its Robotaxi pilot service in Austin, Texas, with a fixed fare of $4.20 for passengers, marking a significant step in its autonomous driving ambitions [1][2]. Group 1: Robotaxi Launch and Operations - The Robotaxi service operates daily from 6 AM to midnight, primarily in the southern part of Austin, avoiding complex intersections for safety [2]. - Each Robotaxi is equipped with a safety driver, despite lacking a steering wheel or brake pedal, who can take control in emergencies [2]. - The service is currently limited to invited users, including Tesla employees and Powerwall users, who can book rides through a dedicated app [2][28]. Group 2: Technical Aspects and Team - The Robotaxi vehicles are modified Model Y models, featuring Tesla's proprietary vision perception system and Full Self-Driving (FSD) software [2]. - Tesla's approach to autonomous driving relies on camera-based solutions rather than expensive radar systems, aiming for cost-effectiveness and scalability [6]. - The AI and software team behind Robotaxi has been built from scratch within Tesla, with key figures like Ashok Elluswamy leading the project [12][17]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Tesla faces significant competition from Waymo, which has already achieved commercial operations in multiple cities and reached a milestone of 10 million paid rides [5]. - The current limited deployment of Tesla's Robotaxi, with only 10 to 20 vehicles, contrasts sharply with the more extensive operations of competitors in the market [28][36]. Group 4: Future Developments and Technology - The upcoming FSD 14.0 version is expected to significantly enhance the system's capabilities, with a parameter increase from 1 billion to 4.5 billion, akin to the leap from ChatGPT 3.5 to 4.0 [19]. - Tesla's strategy includes optimizing models for local conditions, which raises questions about managing numerous regional versions of the software [20][22]. - The company has streamlined its codebase by nearly 90%, moving from heuristic-based logic to a more efficient neural network approach [23]. Group 5: User Experience and Feedback - Initial user feedback indicates a smooth riding experience, with the Robotaxi interface providing entertainment options during rides [30][31]. - Tesla has humorously integrated a feature that rejects tips, indicating a unique approach to customer interaction [32]. Group 6: Comparison with Domestic Players - In contrast to Tesla's fixed pricing model, domestic competitors in China have adopted a more traditional fare structure, combining base fares with distance and time charges [36]. - Companies like Baidu and Xiaoma Zhixing have established extensive Robotaxi services across multiple cities in China, highlighting the competitive landscape Tesla is entering [35].
Just As Tesla Lined Up Its Big Move, Waymo Went Bigger
Benzinga· 2025-06-20 21:27
Core Insights - Waymo has applied for a permit to test its self-driving vehicles in New York City, marking its entry into the largest city in the U.S. [1] - The application is aimed at operating autonomous vehicles in Manhattan with a human safety driver present [1]. Regulatory Environment - New York has strict regulations for autonomous vehicles, requiring a human operator, a $5 million insurance policy, and comprehensive training for test vehicle operators [2][3]. - Even if Waymo secures the permit, it will face significant challenges before launching commercial services or conducting driverless tests [2]. Competitive Landscape - Waymo's move coincides with Tesla's preparations for its robotaxi launch in Austin, Texas, scheduled for June 22 [4]. - Tesla is inviting influencers and long-time supporters to access autonomous rides through a new Robotaxi app, utilizing Model Y SUVs equipped with Full Self-Driving software [4][5]. - Tesla's CEO has emphasized the company's high safety standards for the robotaxi pilot and expressed optimism about rapid scaling if the Austin pilot is successful [5].
自动驾驶汽车真能重构保险业吗
汽车商业评论· 2025-06-12 16:30
编 译 / 钱亚光 设 计 / 赵昊然 来 源 / w w w. b l o o m b e r g . c o . j p , w w w. c l a i m sj o u r n a l . c o m , e g a l c l a r i t y. o r g 业界对于自动驾驶汽车的预期各不相同,有人乐观地认为即将迎来重大突破,而另一些人则悲观地 认为自动驾驶汽车不会大规模上路。 高盛(Goldman)集团表示,自动驾驶汽车的兴起将促使美国规模达4000亿美元的汽车保险业进行 重新调整,因为人为失误导致的事故数量会减少,保险成本也会大幅降低,但关于责任归属的问题 仍存在。 高盛研究部门负责汽车和工业技术的分析师马克·德莱尼(Mark Delaney)在6月9日给客户的一份报 告中写道:"从长远来看,自动驾驶技术有可能显著降低事故发生率,并改变事故相关的索赔成本 分布以及法律责任。" 自动驾驶汽车市场发展迅速,预计到2030年将达到70亿美元,到同一年,美国Class 8重型卡车的自 动驾驶虚拟驾驶员潜在市场规模将约为50亿美元。 特斯拉公司期待已久的Robotaxi服务将于本周在其总部得克萨斯州奥斯 ...
特斯拉全自动驾驶汽车即将交付,Robotaxi本月启动试运营
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-06-11 10:34
每经记者|刘曦 每经实习编辑|余婷婷 特斯拉市值重回万亿美元。 当地时间6月10日收盘,特斯拉股价(NASDAQ:TSLA)涨5.67%,报收326.09美元/股,市值重新突破万亿美元关口,达到1.05万亿美元,一夜暴涨约564 亿美元(约合人民币4054亿元)。消息面上,特斯拉CEO马斯克公开表示,公司即将在美国得克萨斯州奥斯汀交付首辆全自动驾驶汽车,同时推动Robotaxi 服务试运营。 图片来源:新浪财经 面对竞争压力,特斯拉正尝试通过差异化路径突围。与行业普遍采用高成本专用车辆不同,特斯拉选择基于现有量产车型进行改装,结合其全球500万辆的 庞大保有量,构建起独特的数据采集和算法优化体系。有观点认为,这种模式若能成功,或将大幅降低Robotaxi的边际成本。然而市场对其可行性仍存疑 虑,特别是考虑到马斯克此前多次未能兑现自动驾驶承诺,包括2016年提出的全自动驾驶目标至今未实现。 与此同时,商业化进程的紧迫性正不断加剧。特斯拉最新财报显示,2025年第一季度全球交付量同比下滑13%至33.67万辆,传统业务增长乏力倒逼公司加 速转型。机构测算显示,若能在2030年前占据Robotaxi市场10%份额, ...
美国商务部长卢特尼克:将出台自动驾驶汽车行业的新规。自动驾驶规则将由行业与政府共同制定。
news flash· 2025-06-05 16:01
美国商务部长卢特尼克:将出台自动驾驶汽车行业的新规。自动驾驶规则将由行业与政府共同制定。 ...
特斯拉 Robotaxi 截止日期临近,但“关键测试”还没做
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-05-14 02:39
特斯拉Robotaxi最后冲刺:自动驾驶测试未完成,奥斯汀部署仍存不确定性。 据媒体报道,距离马斯克承诺在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出首个Robotaxi服务的最后期限仅剩数周,但截至 上个月,特斯拉尚未开始无人安全驾驶员测试——这是在向客户推出试点服务前的关键步骤。 内部邮件显示,自去年秋季以来,特斯拉一直在奥斯汀对Model Y进行训练。今年4月,公司表示员工 正在测试配备人类安全驾驶员的"受监督"Robotaxi服务。然而,无人驾驶测试阶段何时开始仍不明确。 这对特斯拉和投资者至关重要。马斯克正将公司的未来押注在Robotaxi上,这项服务最初将依赖现有特 斯拉车辆,之后将使用计划明年开始生产的专用Cybercab。 与此同时,Alphabet旗下的Waymo已在多个美国城市运营商业化Robotaxi服务,采用截然不同的训练和 运营方法。 Waymo vs 特斯拉:两种截然不同的训练路径 Waymo在进入新城市时,使用少量测试车辆上的传感器数据来准备详细地图,以确保车辆安全导航。 这一过程耗时十年才得以开发,并且至少需要一年的时间才能完成。 相比之下,特斯拉主要依靠现有特斯拉车主积累的数据来训练其汽车。 一位接 ...