地缘冲突升级与科技变革交织，全球顶尖分析师共绘贵金属投资新蓝图 2025年6月14日，红狮金业2025年中投资论坛在香港线下线上同步盛大开幕。本次论坛汇聚领域顶尖贵金属分析师和金融科技 专家，围绕三四季度黄金、白银及原油走势展开深度剖析，并系统性探讨人工智能在黄金交易领域的革命性应用。 贵金属走势：避险需求推动黄金白银持续走强 论坛开场，红狮金融研究院首席分析师展示了最新预期分析：黄金价格在第三季度有望再次突破3500美元/盎司，而白银在工 业与投资双重需求推动下，可能挑战42美元/盎司的历史新高。 论坛现场展示的资本流动监测数据显示，在近期中东冲突升级期间，全球资金呈现出"风险资产抛售+避险资产涌入"的典型模 式。军#工、石油石化板块逆势领涨，而传统消费板块则明显承压。"这不是短期扰动"，"地缘冲突风险溢价已嵌入贵金属长 期定价。当市场看到伊朗核设施成为打击目标，意味着游戏规则已经发生本质变化。" 科技变革：AI重塑黄金交易生态 本次论坛最具前瞻性的议题聚焦AI技术在黄金交易中的应用。红狮科技金融实验室负责人首次展示了 AI黄金交易辅助系统的 两大突破性进展： 1. 多模态市场情绪分析：整合新闻文本、社交媒 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 73.7 million ounces as of March 2025, marking 18 consecutive months of accumulation, reflecting a strategic response to global economic uncertainties [1] - The gold reserves now account for 5.5% of the country's foreign exchange reserves, aligning with the global trend of central banks moving away from the US dollar, with a record net purchase of 1,044 tons of gold in 2024 [1] - The price of Shanghai gold futures reached a high of 782.42 yuan per gram on June 4, indicating sustained market recognition of the investment value of precious metals [1] Group 2 - China's gold reserve ratio is only one-third of the global average, prompting the central bank to adopt a "pulse-style increase" strategy, with a record monthly increase of 10.26 tons in December 2024 [3] - This strategic adjustment not only diversifies risks associated with dollar assets but also supports the internationalization of the renminbi, enhancing the credibility of the sovereign currency [3] - Gold is increasingly seen as a long-term asset allocation "ballast" for individual investors, with Jinsheng Precious Metals providing a robust safety net through its compliance and auditing measures [3] Group 3 - Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and fluctuating US tariff policies, have created a surge in demand for safe-haven assets like gold [4] - On June 3, international gold prices rose by 1% due to the breakdown of negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchange, surpassing 3,390 yuan per gram, highlighting gold's role as a crisis hedge [4] - Jinsheng Precious Metals has established a comprehensive service system to address this trend, achieving a customer satisfaction rate of 97.3% in Q1 2025 [4] Group 4 - The dual characteristics of enhanced safe-haven attributes and surging industrial demand in the precious metals market have prompted Jinsheng Precious Metals to leverage technology to build a competitive trading ecosystem [5] - The platform connects directly with Bloomberg data, ensuring market data latency of less than 0.3 seconds and supporting multi-currency settlements, catering to diverse global investor needs [5] - Jinsheng Precious Metals has also implemented blockchain technology for supply chain traceability, aligning with EU carbon tax standards, thus enabling investors to capitalize on opportunities in the hydrogen energy revolution [5] Group 5 - The continuous increase in gold reserves by the People's Bank of China signals a strategic response to changes in the global financial landscape, guiding individual investors towards precious metal investments in 2025 [6] - In an era where compliance, technological innovation, and user experience are core competitive advantages, Jinsheng Precious Metals is building a "safe, efficient, and transparent" trading ecosystem based on Hong Kong's financial regulatory framework [6] - The company aims to facilitate both short-term trading and long-term asset allocation, enabling wealth growth in a complex environment by aligning with market trends [6]

● 本报记者 葛瑶 在黄金高位震荡之际，铂金市场正在开启一段强劲上涨行情。Wind数据显示，6月4日，铂金现货价格 强势突破1080美元/盎司关口，逼近最近一年来高点。年初至今，铂金现货价格累计上涨近20%。 支撑此轮涨势的核心在于持续加剧的供应短缺，世界铂金投资协会发布的最新报告称，2025年铂金地上 近期，支撑铂金价格上涨的核心动力来自基本面变化。世界铂金投资协会数据显示，2025年铂金地上存 量将降至67吨，仅够满足三个月需求。该协会发布的最新报告称，今年第一季度全球铂金总供应量同比 下降10%，降至45吨。同期全球铂金需求同比增长10%至71吨，这一增长主要归因于强劲的投资需求。 世界铂金投资协会在报告中称："受与关税相关的不确定性及区域溢价扩大驱动，大量铂金流入美国市 场，推动交易所库存显著增加。投资需求的增长有效抵消了汽车及工业领域需求的下滑。" 存量预计仅能满足三个月需求，一季度全球供应同比锐减10%至45吨。与此同时，投资需求激增推动纽 约商业交易所（NYMEX）铂金期货总持仓量与管理基金净多持仓飙升至近五年同期峰值，市场对铂金 市场投资情绪正悄然回暖。 今年以来涨幅接近黄金 从数据来看，铂金 ...

2025年6月的黄金市场正经历多重力量的博弈。受美国关税政策调整及美元指数回落影响，国际金价在3200-3400美元/盎司区间震荡中展现韧性。全球央行 购金力度持续加大，2025年第一季度黄金购买量创历史新高，中国央行黄金储备连续18个月增持，凸显黄金作为"危机对冲工具"的战略价值。与此同时，美 联储6月15日议息会议临近，市场对降息预期升温，若实际利率进入负值区间，将进一步降低持有黄金的机会成本。地缘政治方面，中东冲突升级、台海局 势紧张等因素叠加特朗普政府的"全球关税战"政策，使得黄金的避险属性被再度激活。 在这样的市场环境下，专业投资平台的选择尤为关键。金盛贵金属作为香港黄金交易所AA类会员（第047号），凭借合规资质与技术创新构建了全流程投资 优势。其自主研发的交易系统实现毫秒级订单执行，同步接入MT4与MT5平台，既能满足自动化交易需求，又支持多资产深度回测，在市场剧烈波动时仍可 保障交易流畅性。资金安全方面，平台采用银行级隔离账户系统，2小时极速到账机制与同名账户转账制度，从源头杜绝资金盗用风险。 通胀与避险需求的双重驱动逻辑 当前全球通胀压力虽较2022年峰值有所回落，但能源价格波动与供应链重构 ...

③关税政策加剧市场波动 美国联邦上诉法院恢复特朗普关税政策，关税政策的不确定性影响美与他国贸易关系，左右全球经济前景与市场避险情绪，导致黄金价格震荡。政策收紧或 刺激金价，缓和则可能抑制金价。 综上，地缘冲突、美国经济数据与关税政策共同作用于现货黄金市场。投资者需紧盯俄乌局势、美国经济数据及关税政策变化，把握投资机会。 二、现货黄金技术面： 一、现货黄金基本面： ①地缘政治推升避险需求 6月1日，乌克兰无人机袭击多个俄罗斯军用机场，远至西伯利亚的贝拉亚基地亦受损，俄罗斯多地防空系统启动。地缘冲突加剧，作为避险资产的黄金，其 需求显著提升，只要局势未缓解，黄金将持续获避险买盘支撑。 ②美国经济数据影响市场预期 美国4月PCE物价指数同比涨2.1%，低于预期的2.2%，市场押注美联储9月降息概率升至87%。同时，二手房成交量、领先经济指数等数据疲软，显示美国经 济增长承压，进一步增加黄金避险需求。美联储若进入降息周期，黄金还将因持有成本下降、货币供应量增加而获上涨动力。 三、现货白银技术面： 复盘昨日现货白银市场表现，价格走出了单边上涨走势，最终突破震荡区间上边界33.710，顺利抵达目标位34.110，成功斩获 ...

Core Insights - The recent volatility in the gold market is attributed to fluctuating expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and the impact of inexperienced investors falling into multiple traps [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of June 2025, London spot gold fluctuated around $3,290 per ounce, down 6% from the historical high in April [1] - Global gold demand is projected to reach a record high in 2024, despite the rise in risks such as scams and high leverage liquidation events [1] Group 2: Common Traps for New Investors - **Herd Mentality**: Many new investors view gold as a guaranteed profit tool, leading to impulsive buying during price surges, resulting in significant losses during downturns [3] - **Overtrading**: New investors often overlook trading costs, with some platforms charging spreads as high as $0.8 per ounce, potentially leading to a 12% annual loss on capital due to frequent trading [4] - **Neglecting Risk Management**: High leverage in gold trading can lead to substantial losses; for instance, a 1% price fluctuation with 50x leverage can result in a 50% loss of capital [5] - **Platform Scams**: The rise of clone platform scams poses a significant risk, as seen in a case where an investor was misled into transferring 1.9 million yuan to a fraudulent account [6] - **Lack of Planning**: Long-term investors in gold (over 5 years) achieve an average annual return of 8.2%, while frequent traders see only 15% achieving positive returns [7] Group 3: Recommendations for New Investors - New investors are advised to accumulate experience through simulated trading and to utilize educational resources to understand market influences [3] - Implementing a "pyramid accumulation" strategy is recommended, where initial positions do not exceed 20% of capital, with incremental increases based on market movements [8] - The importance of verifying platform legitimacy and transaction speed is emphasized to avoid scams [6]

Core Insights - The global financial market is experiencing multiple dynamics, including rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a declining US dollar index, and fluctuating prices for gold and silver, with London gold stabilizing around $3,300 per ounce and London silver around $33 per ounce [1] - The investment landscape for gold and silver is influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and supply chain concerns due to tariff policies, leading to a dual logic of safe-haven demand and industrial attributes [1] - Year-to-date, London gold has increased over 12%, while silver has shown higher volatility, presenting differentiated investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Comparison of Gold and Silver Characteristics - London gold is viewed as a traditional safe-haven asset, with price fluctuations primarily driven by macroeconomic cycles and monetary policy, particularly the potential for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June [3] - The expected core PCE inflation rate for 2025 is 2.7%, providing long-term support for gold prices [3] - London silver, with over 50% of its demand coming from industrial applications, saw a 21.5% price increase in 2024, but is expected to face a 21% reduction in global supply gap in 2025, making it more susceptible to short-term market sentiment [3] Group 2: Role of Jinsheng Precious Metals in Investment Decisions - Jinsheng Precious Metals, a member of the Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange, offers a trading platform that connects deeply with international markets, providing 24-hour two-way trading services for gold and silver [4] - The platform features a transparent cost structure with a standard spread of $30 per lot for gold and $100 per lot for silver, along with a leverage ratio of 1:100 [4] - Jinsheng's customer service team is available 24/7 to assist investors, especially during critical market events such as Federal Reserve policy changes [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - A suggested strategy for ordinary investors is to adopt a "gold base + silver enhancement" approach, allocating 70% of the portfolio to gold and 30% to silver [5] - Key signals to monitor include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in June and changes in US non-farm employment data, which could influence gold and silver prices [5] - Jinsheng's simulated trading feature serves as a testing ground for various strategies, helping investors avoid pitfalls in real trading scenarios [5] Conclusion - In the context of shifting Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical changes, the investment value of London gold and silver varies, with Jinsheng Precious Metals providing a compliant, transparent, and professional trading platform for investors [7] - Both long-term holders seeking stability and short-term traders looking to capitalize on volatility can find suitable solutions within Jinsheng's ecosystem [7]

一向走势平平无奇的铂金迅速启动上涨行情，年内累计最大涨 幅达到25%。一波铂金"复兴"浪潮正迅速从水贝这一"珠宝港 口"蔓延开来。在贵金属投资市场"蛰伏"多年的铂金，究竟是 价值洼地还是资本幻影？ 作者：陈姗 封图：图虫创意 热衷于投资的陈女士在铂金上"出手"了。 "最近听说铂金市场出现了缺货、抢货现象，一些社交媒体和平台也都在讨论铂金，我想着铂金已 经在底部'躺'了这么多年，买入后上涨的概率会比下跌的概率大。"陈女士4月2日以接近120万元 的资金量下定了铂金条和铂金板料，共计10斤。 5月下旬，一向走势平平无奇的铂金迅速启动上涨行情，纽约商品交易所的铂金期货主力合约价格 一度冲高至1104.8美元/盎司，创出近一年以来新高，年内累计最大涨幅达到25%。这股"白色风 暴"，迅速成为投资者和买家的关注点。 在品牌首饰零售端，铂金饰品顾客寥寥。一些消费者则在以当初囤积黄金的热情，涌入铂金直播 间"扫货"。 铂金上游的"老板"们更早嗅到了行情变化带来的商机。经济观察报记者获悉，深圳水贝2025年仅 前四个月就新增专业铂金展厅超过10家，且单店库存均破百公斤。在地下商业连廊空间，60余个 新增铂金专柜已自然形成一条 ...

黄金，作为亘古不变的"金融避风港"，其价格波动始终与全球经济脉搏紧密相连。其中，美国通胀指数 是影响黄金走势的核心变量之一。投资者想要把准市场风向，密切关注通胀指数的波动趋势与政策联动 效应是很有必要的。那么，如何理解这些指数与黄金的关系？投资者又该如何借助专业平台捕捉数据行 情？今天，领峰贵金属将与大家一起揭晓美国通胀指数的奥秘，以及我们应如何借助这股东风在黄金投 资中乘风破浪。 一、美国三大通胀指数：黄金市场的"晴雨表" 通胀数据的每一次波动，都可能触动黄金市场敏感神经。作为美联储政策调整的核心依据，CPI、PPI、 PCE三大指数不仅映射着美国经济的冷热交替，更通过复杂的传导机制，改写黄金的定价逻辑。这些数 据的细微变化，或是政策转向的"预警信号"，或是市场情绪的"催化剂"，唯有深入剖析其内在关联，投 资者方能穿透数据迷雾，捕捉黄金市场的真实动向。 1.消费者物价指数(CPI) CPI是美国劳工统计局发布的，反映一篮子消费品和服务价格变化的指标。它直接关联民众生活成本， 是衡量通胀水平的常用指标。例如，当CPI数据持续攀升，意味着货币购买力下降，生活成本上升，市 场通胀压力增大。 2.生产者物价指数(P ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious approach to interest rate cuts due to high uncertainty and inflation risks, indicating potential challenges ahead [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes highlight a consensus on the risks of inflation, suggesting that rate cuts may be difficult [1] - The expectation for rate cuts has been pushed back to September or December due to concerns over consumer inflation driven by tariffs [1] Group 2: Global Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points in April, with expectations for further cuts later in the year [1] - The Bank of England reduced its key rate to 4.25% in May, with market expectations for only one more cut by the end of the year [1] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates around July, following a recent increase to 0.5% [1] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The 5-year U.S. Treasury auction showed strong overseas demand, reaching a historical high [1] - The upcoming maturity of U.S. Treasury bonds, totaling $1.2 trillion and $1.46 trillion in June and July respectively, may lead to liquidity shocks [1] - Japan's 40-year bond auction saw a bidding ratio at its lowest since July 2024, although results were better than the previous week [1] Group 4: Precious Metals Investment Outlook - Due to the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks, precious metal prices may experience fluctuations, with potential for recovery after initial declines [1] - Investors are advised to consider long positions during market pullbacks, paying attention to support and resistance levels for various commodities [1]