Group 1 - The tungsten market continues to experience price increases, with tungsten concentrate and major tungsten product prices reaching new highs [1] - After a brief decline at the beginning of the month, the market quickly returned to stability, driven by a tight supply and reluctance from holders to sell [1] - As of the report, ammonium paratungstate (APT) price is 291,000 CNY/ton, up 37.9% since the beginning of the year; tungsten powder price is 438 CNY/kg, up 38.6%; tungsten iron price is 300,000 CNY/ton, up 39.5%; and scrap tungsten bar price is 327 CNY/kg, up 48.6% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while the "anti-involution" trend may be coming to an end, speculation on price increases, particularly in tungsten, is likely to continue due to rising prices and supply constraints [1] - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached new highs since May 13, driven by tightening supply and stricter environmental policies, with predictions of a supply-demand gap exceeding 4,600 tons by 2025 [1] Group 2 - There is a significant cognitive gap between institutions and retail investors, as institutional funds may not always translate positive news into stock price increases [6][11] - The market reality shows that over 80% of stocks have institutional funds, but the key factor is whether these funds are actively participating in trading [11] - The "institutional inventory" data indicates that institutional participation can significantly influence stock price movements, as seen in the case of Moutai, where institutional activity decreased before the stock price fell [11][13] Group 3 - The demand for tungsten is expected to grow in sectors like photovoltaics, military, and nuclear fusion, with companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten appearing to be promising investment targets [6][14] - However, these positive indicators may already be priced in, and true investment opportunities often arise from discrepancies between market expectations and actual performance [14] - Investors should be cautious of superficial positive news and utilize data analysis tools to assess institutional behavior and actual fund movements [16]

Group 1: Price Trends - Tungsten prices have been rising continuously this year, with black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) reaching 190,000 yuan/ton, up 32.9% since the beginning of the year [1] - White tungsten concentrate (≥65%) is priced at 189,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.1% year-to-date [1] - Ammonium paratungstate (APT) is at 280,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 32.7% rise since the start of the year [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The A-share tungsten sector has seen a cumulative increase of over 60% as of July 25 this year [1] - Market funds are beginning to reassess investment opportunities in tungsten, which has been undervalued compared to other non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum [1] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The Ministry of Natural Resources has set a total tungsten mining quota of 58,000 tons for the first batch in 2025, a decrease of 4,000 tons or 6.45% from the previous year [1] - Major tungsten-producing provinces, Jiangxi and Yunnan, have reduced their mining volumes by 2,370 tons and 400 tons, respectively [1] - The natural decline in tungsten ore grades is providing strong support for tungsten prices [1] Group 4: Demand Drivers - The demand for tungsten products is increasing due to the accelerated transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing sector, particularly in photovoltaic and hard alloy fields [2] - The market size for tungsten wire used in photovoltaic cutting is projected to grow from 719 million yuan in 2022 to 6.659 billion yuan by 2025 [2] - Companies like Guangdong Xianglu Tungsten Industry Co., Ltd. are ramping up production capabilities, with plans for an annual output of 30 billion meters of ultra-fine tungsten wire [2] Group 5: Industry Responses - Companies are actively responding to the challenges and opportunities presented by rising tungsten prices, with upstream mining firms leveraging resource advantages and downstream firms optimizing product structures [2] - Changyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry Co., Ltd. is enhancing its resource base through the integration of mining rights and increased exploration efforts [2] - Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. aims to increase its tungsten resource assurance rate from 20% to 70% in the future [3] Group 6: Innovation and Cost Management - Companies are improving processes to manage cost pressures and enhance product value, such as Zhongtung High-tech Materials Co., Ltd. extending APT into micro-drill production for printed circuit boards [3] - The focus on high-value-added products is seen as a strategy to mitigate risks associated with raw material price fluctuations [3] - The impact of rising tungsten prices varies across the industry, with upstream companies benefiting from higher prices while downstream firms need to invest in product upgrades and innovation capabilities [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3600 points, reaching a new high for the year, but closed slightly up by 0.01% at 3582.3 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.37% to 11059.04 points, and the ChiNext Index was down by 0.01% to 2310.67 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 189.87 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 30 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Various sectors showed mixed performance, with military, electricity, construction, and liquor sectors declining, while insurance, brokerage, and banking sectors saw gains [1] Hainan Free Trade Port Development - The Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start its full island closure on December 18, 2025, marking a significant milestone in its development [2] - The policy will promote high-quality development by implementing "open on one line, controlled on another line, and free within the island" [2] - The tourism industry in Hainan is expected to benefit significantly, with related businesses such as scenic spots, hotels, and travel retailers poised for long-term gains [2] Tungsten Market Dynamics - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached a historical high of 182,500 yuan per ton as of July 21, with a continuous upward trend since May 13 [3] - The supply-demand balance for tungsten is expected to remain tight, and despite potential price corrections, tungsten prices are projected to stay high over the next three years [3] Nuclear Fusion Industry Developments - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., a subsidiary of the China National Nuclear Corporation, aims to advance fusion engineering and commercialization [4] - Global investment in the fusion industry has reached $7.1 billion, with China's significant funding expected to drive growth in core areas such as superconducting materials and magnet systems by 2027 [4] - The technology spillover effects from fusion research are anticipated to open new markets in medical devices and new materials [4] Agricultural Sector Initiatives - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on promoting high-quality development in the pig industry, emphasizing market guidance and policy support [6] Industrial Robotics Market Growth - China remains the largest market for industrial robots globally, with a notable increase in demand from the 3C industry due to national subsidy policies [9] - A specific industrial robot manufacturer in Shenzhen reported that orders are already booked until November, reflecting strong market demand [9] - In the first half of 2025, China's cumulative production of industrial robots reached 369,300 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.6% [9]

Core Insights - Almonty has successfully transitioned to NASDAQ, highlighting its strategic importance in the U.S. market and marking a new development phase for the company [2][3] - The company issued 20 million shares, initially aiming to raise $75 million, but due to strong market demand, the target was increased to $90 million, with the offering being oversubscribed multiple times [2] - The issuance price was set at a 21% discount compared to the closing price in Canada, indicating a strategic pricing decision to attract investors [2] Company Overview - Almonty's core asset is the Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea, and it also operates a tungsten mine in Portugal [2] - The company has secured a 15-year tungsten supply contract with a U.S. defense firm, emphasizing its role in the defense industry where tungsten is critical for manufacturing munitions and weaponry [2] - The funds raised from the NASDAQ listing will be utilized for the construction of a tungsten oxide plant in Sangdong, further enhancing its production capabilities [2]

Group 1: Humanoid Robots and AI Solutions - UBTECH announced the launch of a commercial humanoid robot solution centered around the Walker C robot, integrating advanced AI models and navigation algorithms for applications in exhibitions, supermarkets, and transportation hubs [2] - The emergence of AI companies like DeepSeek is driving the development of general-purpose humanoid robot models, indicating a strong trend towards industrial applications of humanoid robots [2] - The humanoid robot industry is entering a phase of rapid development, with commercial applications becoming increasingly viable, suggesting potential investment opportunities in domestic component manufacturers [2] Group 2: AI Infrastructure Investments - Major tech companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle, and Meta are making significant investments in AI infrastructure, with total investments reaching up to tens of billions of dollars [3] - The demand for digital infrastructure driven by AI is leading to a sustained increase in global data center capacity, with the domestic computing power sector expected to recover due to policy support and technological upgrades [3] - The long-term growth of AI-driven infrastructure is anticipated, with opportunities arising from technological upgrades and domestic replacements in sectors like optical modules, switches, and cooling systems [3] Group 3: Robotics and AI Market Potential - Google DeepMind introduced the Gemini Robotics On-Device model, which can run locally on robotic devices, enhancing their adaptability to new tasks without needing constant internet connectivity [4] - The competition among major tech firms in the field of embodied intelligence is expected to unlock a trillion-dollar market, as robots transition into the embodied intelligence era [5] - The intersection of humanoid robots and AI represents a critical point in technological advancement, with significant breakthroughs anticipated in application, cost, and software development [5] Group 4: Tungsten Market Dynamics - The strategic value of tungsten is increasing, with supply-demand tightness expected to persist, leading to a bullish market trend and potential price increases [6] - Tungsten is essential in high-end manufacturing and is considered a strategic resource in China, with strict controls on its mining [6] - The global tungsten supply is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.57% from 2023 to 2028, while demand is expected to rise due to emerging industries like photovoltaics and robotics [6]

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - China holds the largest tungsten resources and production scale globally, accounting for over 80% of global production and 49% of consumption, significantly influencing the global tungsten market [2][4] - The tungsten industry has a complete supply chain from extraction to final products, with major applications in hard alloys (cutting tools, drill bits) and military materials [2][6] Key Points and Arguments - The current tungsten market faces a contradiction between tight upstream supply and insufficient downstream orders. Rapid price increases in raw materials have raised cost pressures for midstream alloy manufacturers, while downstream manufacturing orders have not seen significant growth, leading to potential losses in the midstream sector [2][7] - The easing of the US-China trade war has raised expectations for a recovery in downstream order demand, but upstream supply remains under national control, meaning that increased demand will not immediately reflect in upstream mining. The transmission effect will take at least a month, with longer processing cycles for tools and final products [2][9][10] - Major domestic tungsten producers include China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten, while overseas companies like Sandvik and Kennametal focus more on product value addition and branding [2][11] Market Dynamics - Tungsten prices have risen approximately 20% since 2025, driven by export controls due to the US-China trade war, particularly on dual-use items, and a unified adjustment of tungsten mining quotas by domestic rare earth groups, leading to tight upstream supply [3][5][12] - The optimism in market expectations and insufficient inventory among domestic enterprises have contributed to the price increase, alongside speculative investments in the non-ferrous metals market [5][12] Challenges in the Tungsten Market - The market is currently challenged by tight upstream supply and a lack of downstream orders. Rising raw material prices are increasing cost pressures for midstream alloy manufacturers, while the reduction in orders has also led to a decline in secondary raw material production, affecting the prices of scrap and waste alloys [7][8] Emerging Applications - Although there is some demand for tungsten in the photovoltaic sector, its overall impact on supply and demand is limited. Research into using tungsten for battery materials is still in the experimental stage and has not yet significantly affected current supply and demand dynamics [8] Future Price Trends - The future price trajectory remains uncertain, with midstream sectors facing loss pressures. Current pricing is based on existing raw material prices plus processing fees. If future order volumes are substantial, there may be improvements, but no significant changes have been felt in the midstream sector yet [14] - Some industry experts believe that black tungsten concentrate prices may reach historical highs, with estimates suggesting prices could exceed 200,000 yuan per ton, although this view is not universally accepted [14]

Summary of Conference Call on Tungsten Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the tungsten industry, specifically the dynamics of tungsten prices and the factors influencing demand and supply in China for 2024 and beyond [1][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Tungsten Demand Growth**: In 2024, China's total tungsten demand is expected to grow by 2% year-on-year to 177,600 metric tons, with military demand accounting for over 10% [1][3]. - **Price Increase Drivers**: Recent increases in tungsten prices are attributed to a reduction in domestic mining quotas, potential supply disruptions due to environmental inspections, and heightened military demand due to geopolitical tensions [1][4]. - **Future Price Outlook**: Tungsten prices are anticipated to continue rising, driven by potential catalysts such as improved US-China relations leading to export recovery and slower-than-expected production at the Bakuta tungsten mine [1][5]. - **Impact on Company Profits**: The rise in tungsten prices is not expected to negatively impact the profits of listed companies. Faster price transmission within the industry and increased machine tool production are expected to enhance profit realization [1][7][8]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies with a higher proportion of profits derived from tungsten mining, such as Zhangyuan Tungsten and Changgao Electric, are showing strong resilience in the current price environment [1][9]. - **Investment Strategy**: Middle tungsten high-tech is prioritized as the top investment target, along with companies benefiting from rare earth themes and robotics component substitution [2][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply-Side Challenges**: Domestic tungsten production is declining, with a forecast of 72,100 metric tons in 2024, a decrease of 0.64% year-on-year. Import growth is also slowing, with average monthly imports around 500 tons in early 2025 [3][4]. - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the tungsten market is positive, with expectations of demand recovery and price increases, despite potential short-term volatility [6][8]. - **Long-Term Investment Value**: The long-term investment value of the entire industry chain remains strong, with a focus on companies' sensitivity to market changes to capture growth opportunities [6][9].

Industry Overview and Outlook - Tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium are classified as strategic minor metals and are widely used in industrial manufacturing, national defense, new materials, and semiconductor industries [2] - China holds over 50% of the global reserves for metals such as tungsten and indium, and its production accounts for more than 50% of tungsten, indium, gallium, rare earths, magnesium, and germanium [2] - According to USGS statistics, global tungsten resources reached 3.8 million tons in 2022, with China being the richest in tungsten reserves and production, holding 47.37% of the world's tungsten reserves and over 80% of its production [2] - Major tungsten resources in China are concentrated in Jiangxi, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia, with Jiangxi being the most significant, often referred to as the "Tungsten Capital of the World" [2] - The number of companies engaged in tungsten mining and processing in China is substantial, with leading firms including Xiamen Tungsten, Jiangxi Tungsten Holding Group, and China Tungsten High-tech [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Ministry of Natural Resources announced a control indicator for tungsten mining in 2025, setting the total mining quota at 58,000 tons, a decrease of 6.45% from 2024 [3] - The main tungsten-producing region, Jiangxi, will see a reduction of 2,370 tons in its mining quota, exceeding a 10% decline [3] - Demand for tungsten remains stable due to the continuous growth of global manufacturing, particularly in high-end sectors such as aerospace, new energy vehicles, and electronic information [3] - Domestic tungsten concentrate prices have risen to 156,000 yuan per ton, nearing the historical high of 157,000 yuan per ton recorded in May of the previous year [3] - The overall supply growth of tungsten is expected to lag behind demand growth due to national mining quota controls, stricter environmental regulations, and natural declines in resource grades [3] Related Companies - China Tungsten High-tech serves as the operational management platform for the tungsten industry under China Minmetals, managing a complete tungsten industry chain from mining to processing and trading [5] - The company plans to complete the acquisition of Shizhu Garden Company by the end of 2024, which will significantly enhance its asset portfolio, as it holds over 30% of the national tungsten resource reserves [5] - Xiamen Tungsten focuses on tungsten, molybdenum, and rare earths, establishing a complete industry chain that includes mining, smelting, production of tungsten and molybdenum powders, and deep processing applications [5]

2 0 2 5年4月2 1日，自然资源部下达2 0 2 5年度第一批钨矿开采总量控制指标，2 0 2 5年第一批钨矿（三氧化钨含量6 5%）开采总 量控制指标为5 . 8万吨。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年第一批钨矿开采指标同比下降6 . 5%，延续下滑趋势。 2 0 2 5年国内第一批钨矿（三氧化钨含量6 5%）开采总量控制指标为5 . 8万吨，相比2 0 2 4年公布的第一批指标降低4 0 0 0吨，同比 下滑6 . 5%，降幅同比增加4 . 9 p c ts。其中，黑龙江、浙江、安徽、湖北未分配指标，江西、广东、广西、云南、甘肃和新疆分 配指标有不同程度下调。 ▍ 国内钨精矿产量下降，全球新增项目有限。 根据中国钨业协会数据，2 0 2 4年全国钨精矿产量为1 2 . 7万吨，同比下降0 . 7 8%。在钨矿开采总量控制指标的约束下，我国钨资 源开发逐渐合理有序，相对于开采总指标的超产幅度已经从2 0 1 5年的5 4 . 9%快速下降到2 0 2 4的11 . 4%。受开采指标约束、环保 监管要求、矿山品位下降等因素影响，我们预计未来钨矿供给或将继续收紧。考虑到全球钨矿新增项目有限，且多数项目处于 未开发或可 ...