Group 1: US Market Signals - The Dow Jones has experienced six consecutive days of gains, but underlying issues such as Microchip's poor performance indicate a valuation crisis in tech stocks, with server inventory turnover days rising to 92 days and a significant 18% reduction in orders due to delayed customer pickups [2] - Consumer confidence index has fallen below pandemic lows, with median disposable income decreasing by 4.2%, raising concerns that this data is more alarming than the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes [2] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - Kweichow Moutai reported contrasting results, with the price of its flagship product falling below 2500 yuan, while its series of wines achieved over 10 billion yuan in quarterly revenue, indicating a trend of high-end consumption downgrade and the emergence of the light luxury market as a new opportunity [3] - Vanke's impressive repayment rate of over 100% is misleading, as it relies heavily on asset disposals, having sold over 20 billion yuan in commercial real estate in three months, a common survival strategy among real estate companies [3] Group 3: Energy Sector Developments - The Three Gorges Group's Yangjiang project has successfully connected to the grid, becoming the world's first offshore photovoltaic power station in a typhoon zone, exceeding expected output by 15% under 12-level wind conditions, creating a market space of 240 billion yuan [4] - Beneficiaries of this technological breakthrough are not the component manufacturers but rather the corrosion-resistant support structures and flexible cables, with orders for the latter extending to 2026 [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Position management suggests reducing total holdings to 50%, with 20% allocated to Changjiang Electric (4.3% dividend yield and dual drivers from flood control and power generation) and China Shenhua (lowest pithead coal cost in the industry) [5] - Identifying undervalued opportunities includes semiconductor equipment leader AMEC, which secured a major order of 12 etching machines from Yangtze Memory Technologies, and SMIC, which is trading at a 32% discount on Hong Kong stocks [5] - A hedging strategy includes a 3% allocation to a gold ETF (Shandong Gold trading at a 38% discount in Hong Kong compared to A-shares) and a 2% allocation to a dollar-denominated money market fund [5] Group 5: Key Observations for May - The MLF operation on May 15 could lead to a valuation recovery in the consumer sector if interest rates are cut by more than 10 basis points [6] - The LPR quote on May 20, particularly a reduction in the 5-year rate, is expected to stimulate the home appliance and building materials sectors [6] - The Federal Reserve's minutes on May 23 will be closely monitored for indications of a "slower balance sheet reduction," which may present buying opportunities in tech stocks [6]

Market Overview - The recent performance of the U.S. stock market shows signs of "false prosperity," with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.75%, largely driven by traditional giants like Boeing and Caterpillar, indicating a "high-low switch" strategy among investors [3] - The Nasdaq's 0.55% increase was primarily supported by Tesla, which alone contributed a 2.15% rise, while other major tech stocks like Amazon and Google experienced slight declines, suggesting a lack of broad market strength [3] Company-Specific Insights - Supermicro's earnings forecast fell short by nearly $1 billion compared to market expectations, leading to a 20% drop in its stock price post-announcement. This event serves as a warning signal for the entire AI server supply chain, impacting stocks like Nvidia and Dell [3] - In the Chinese concept stock market, the Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.3%, but there was significant divergence within the sector. New Oriental saw a rise of over 4% due to favorable trends in vocational education, while Xpeng faced a 6% decline due to tariff issues [3] - Luckin Coffee continues to struggle, reflecting a significant decline in market sentiment towards previously high-flying stocks [3] Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market experienced a "Black Tuesday," with oil prices dropping below $60 and gold losing its safe-haven appeal, reflecting global economic "stagflation" expectations [4] - The simultaneous decline in oil and gold prices is attributed to OPEC+ production increases amid weak demand, while a rebound in the dollar is pressuring gold prices [4] Bond Market Trends - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell below 4.17%, and the 2-year yield reached 3.65%, indicating a steepening yield curve that suggests market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [4] - Consumer confidence has dropped to a pandemic low, and job vacancies have decreased for three consecutive months, further supporting the notion of an impending rate cut [4] Strategic Recommendations - The current rally in the U.S. stock market lacks solid foundations, with a focus on upcoming Nvidia earnings to provide clarity [4] - Investors in Chinese concept stocks should focus on policy benefits and earnings certainty, particularly in education and essential consumer sectors [4] - Caution is advised in the commodity market, with recommendations to wait for the OPEC+ June meeting and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision before making significant moves [4]

智通财经APP获悉，周二美股盘后，超微电脑(SMCI.US)股价暴跌，此前公布的初步业绩远低于分析师 预期，表明该公司的业务复苏计划进展缓慢。 这家人工智能(AI)服务器制造商周二发布声明称，第三财季销售额预计为45亿至46亿美元，不仅远低于 分析师53.5亿美元的平均预期，也大幅低于公司此前约55亿美元的业绩指引。截至3月31日的季度，经 调整后每股收益仅为0.29至0.31美元，而市场预期为0.53美元。 作为曾经备受AI概念追捧的明星股，超微电脑因搭载高性能显卡的AI服务器需求激增而风光无限。今 年2月，该公司还给出了积极的长期营收指引，称在截至2026年6月的财政年度，销售额将达到400亿美 元，几乎是分析师对本财年预测值的两倍。首席执行官Charles Liang曾向分析师表示："若供应链能跟 上需求，我们对2025年重现甚至超越2023年的增长充满信心。" 但该公司解释称，部分客户推迟采购计划，导致订单转移至本季度。这份不及预期的报告导致其股价在 周二美股收于36美元后，盘后一度重挫近20%。芯片巨头英伟达(NVDA.US)跌幅约2%， AMD(AMD.US)跌幅约1%。 Bloomberg In ...

Group 1 - The liquid cooling server sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with KWH Data (科华数据, 002335) hitting the daily limit increase [1] - New Times (新时达, 002527) has risen over 4%, indicating strong market interest [1] - Other companies such as Data Port (数据港, 603881), Shenling Environment (申菱环境, 301018), and Jiangsu Leili (江苏雷利, 300660) are also seeing gains, reflecting a broader positive movement in the sector [1] Group 2 - There is an influx of dark pool funds entering these stocks, suggesting increased investor confidence and potential for further price appreciation [1]

文 ｜ 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 遥远 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前，中美贸易谈判可能进展有限；国内的政策是托底和应对式的，4月只是第一波以试验和预防为特征 的政策；筹码出清相对彻底且对业绩不敏感的主题阶段性占优；市场整体情绪位置不算低，科技板块相对医药和消费更接近冰点，对风偏 回升更敏感。配置上，5月关注新技术和产业题材轮动、海外科技映射链修复以及服务业扩内需政策落地。 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前， 中美贸易谈判可能进展有限 近期特朗普针对关税问题表态持续反复，美股市场反应较为敏感。但我们认为国内投资者不需要花精力关心这些高频变化，特朗普试图灵活 利用关税武器来制造谈判筹码，而中国商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示"如果美方真的想解决问题，就应该正视国际社会和国内各方理性声音， 彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施，通过平等对话，找到解决分歧的办法"。我们建议还是关注特朗普未来一年面临的两大约束，一是7~8月需 要推进债务上限谈判和减税法案通过，二是明年中期选举。尽管目前特朗普的民调支持率已经开始明显下降，但这属于每个美国总统百日新 政后正常的回落，而特朗普两次任期的民调本身就比其他美国总统偏低，目前 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on sectors driven by AI development, including servers, IDC, switches, switch chips, optical modules, and liquid cooling, as well as overseas markets for servers, switches, and optical modules [4]. Core Insights - China Unicom's Q1 2025 financial report shows growth driven by cloud and IDC data center businesses, with cloud revenue at 19.72 billion yuan, up 18.1% year-on-year, and IDC revenue at 7.22 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [1]. - Huawei's CloudMatrix 384 super node cluster, featuring 384 Ascend chips, is expected to accelerate domestic AI chip replacement and boost demand for optical modules [1]. - The demand for inference computing continues to grow as tech companies accelerate their investments in multimodal interaction and AI agents, exemplified by Tencent's AI assistant "Yuanbao" and OpenAI's new models [1][7]. - The three major telecom operators are steadily advancing cloud computing and computing power services, driving rapid growth in AI computing demand [3]. Summary by Sections Subsector Insights - **Servers**: 2025 is projected to be a year of significant growth in inference demand, with a shift from centralized cloud services to mass terminals requiring cost-effective dedicated chips. Domestic ASIC chip manufacturers like ZTE and Unisoc are expected to benefit [2][6]. - **Optical Modules**: The CloudMatrix system's architecture will significantly increase the demand for optical modules, with major domestic suppliers like LightSpeed Technology and Shijia Photonics poised for growth [2][10]. - **IDC**: The three major operators are increasing investments in computing power, with companies like DataPort and Runjian benefiting from the growing demand for data centers [3][13]. Key Data Updates - The telecom sector's main business revenue reached 295 billion yuan in the first two months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [17]. - The number of fixed broadband access users reached 675 million, with gigabit users accounting for 31.7% [18]. - The mobile internet traffic reached 55.39 billion GB, up 13.6% year-on-year [21]. Market Trends - The report indicates a steady upward trend in the telecom sector, with operators, optical modules, and servers showing robust growth [14][17]. - The IDC index has seen a decline of 2.17% this week, reflecting market fluctuations [13]. Company News - OpenAI has launched the GPT-4.1 series models, enhancing performance and cost efficiency, which is expected to drive demand for AI computing power [55]. - Major cloud providers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for AI and cloud services, indicating strong future demand for computing infrastructure [7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on sectors driven by AI development, including servers, IDC, switches, switch chips, optical modules, and liquid cooling, as well as overseas markets for servers, switches, and optical modules [4] Core Insights - China Unicom's Q1 2025 financial report shows growth driven by cloud and IDC services, with cloud revenue at 19.72 billion yuan, up 18.1% year-on-year, and IDC revenue at 7.22 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [1] - Huawei's CloudMatrix 384 super node cluster, built on 384 Ascend chips, is expected to boost demand for optical modules, benefiting domestic suppliers [1] - The demand for inference computing continues to grow, driven by advancements in AI applications and multi-modal interactions [1][7] - Major tech companies are increasing investments in AI infrastructure, with Microsoft planning to invest approximately 80 billion USD in data centers for AI model training in FY2025 [7] Summary by Sections Communication Sector - The communication industry in China saw a 0.9% growth in Q1 2025, with operators focusing on cloud and computing services to drive AI demand [1][3] - The three major operators achieved a total telecom revenue of 295 billion yuan in the first two months of 2025, reflecting a 0.9% year-on-year increase [17] Server Sector - The server index increased by 1.28% this week, with a projected significant rise in inference demand in 2025 as AI applications expand from centralized cloud services to mass terminals [6] - Domestic ASIC chip manufacturers and server OEMs like ZTE and Unisplendour are expected to benefit from the restructuring of the chip market due to tariff policies [6] Optical Module Sector - The optical module index decreased by 0.26% this week, with a notable decline of 11.26% for the month [10] - The CloudMatrix 384 system's architecture is expected to significantly increase the demand for optical modules, with 6,912 400G LPO modules utilized [10] IDC Sector - The IDC index decreased by 2.17% this week, with a 12.16% decline for the month [13] - Data centers are expected to benefit from the large-scale construction of computing infrastructure in 2025, with companies like Data Port and Runjian actively participating in operator collaborations [3][13]

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on domestic AI-driven sectors such as servers, IDC, switches, switch chips, optical modules, and liquid cooling, as well as overseas AI-driven sectors like servers, switches, and optical modules [5] Core Insights - The Trump administration's tariffs on China are expected to pressure high export-exposed sectors in the short term, while domestic alternatives in computing power are recommended for investment [2][3] - OpenAI has secured a significant $40 billion funding round, with approximately $18 billion allocated for the "Stargate" data center project [3][7] - The OFC 2025 conference showcased advancements in optical communication technologies, highlighting the importance of 1.6T optical modules and 200G optical chips [2][10] Summary by Sections Communication Sector - The communication sector is experiencing steady growth, with operators reporting a 0.9% year-on-year increase in telecom revenue for the first two months of 2025, totaling CNY 295 billion [17][18] - Domestic IDC manufacturers are less affected by tariffs due to their low overseas revenue exposure and strong supply chain control [13] Server Market - The server index has seen a decline of 1.37% this week, but demand for computing power remains strong due to ongoing capital expenditures from North American cloud providers [7][10] - Major players like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for data centers, indicating robust demand for server infrastructure [7][10] Switch Market - The OFC conference highlighted the introduction of new optical circuit switches (OCS) designed for AI workloads, which promise low latency and high scalability [10][11] - Domestic switch manufacturers are beginning to enter the commercial phase with new products, while the overall industry is still in its early stages [10][11] Optical Module Market - The optical module index has decreased by 0.89% this week, with a focus on low-power designs and innovations in CPO/MPO technologies [11][30] - The demand for optical modules is expected to remain strong, driven by AI advancements and infrastructure needs [11][30]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its forecast for rack-level AI server shipments, projecting a decline in expected volumes for 2025 and 2026 due to product transition impacts and supply-demand uncertainties [2][4]. Group 1: AI Server Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs expects AI training servers to remain the main growth driver in the market, but the growth rate is anticipated to be lower than previously expected due to factors such as product transition, production complexity challenges, demand variability, and tariff risks [7]. - The forecast for rack-level AI server shipments has been revised down to 19,000 units in 2025 and 57,000 units in 2026, with market sizes adjusted to $54 billion and $156 billion respectively [8]. Group 2: Impact on Supply Chain Companies - Goldman Sachs has lowered the target prices for several Taiwanese AI server supply chain companies, including Quanta, with reductions ranging from 7% to 21% [3][11]. - The downgrade reflects a shift from rapid growth to more rational expansion in the AI server industry, indicating that while growth is slowing, AI infrastructure investment remains a key growth driver in the tech sector [11]. Group 3: Performance of Different Server Types - High-performance AI servers are not expected to be completely replaced by rack-level solutions, as some customers prefer motherboard solutions for design flexibility [5]. - AI inference servers are projected to see sales growth of 41% and 39% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, driven by expanding application areas [12].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its forecast for rack-level AI server shipments, indicating a slowdown in industry growth due to product transition impacts and supply-demand uncertainties [1][3][8]. Group 1: Shipment Forecast Adjustments - The forecast for rack-level AI server shipments in 2025 and 2026 has been revised down from 31,000 and 66,000 units to 19,000 and 57,000 units, respectively [1]. - The revenue forecast for AI training servers has also been adjusted, with expected growth of 30% in 2025 to reach $160 billion and 63% in 2026 to reach $260 billion, down from previous estimates of $179 billion and $248 billion [3][5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Adjustments - The slowdown in shipments is attributed to several factors, including the transition period for GPU platforms, production complexity challenges, demand variability due to new AI models, and tariff risks affecting ODM manufacturers [4][5]. - The production complexity of full rack systems adds uncertainty to capacity ramp-up, while the release of more efficient AI models raises questions about market demand for intensive computing capabilities [4]. Group 3: Impact on Supply Chain Companies - Goldman Sachs has lowered target prices for several Taiwanese ODM and cooling supply chain companies, including Quanta, Foxconn, FII, Wistron, AVC, and Auras, with reductions ranging from 7% to 21% [1][7]. - Quanta's rating has been downgraded from "Buy" to "Neutral" due to limited upside potential in the current market environment [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The market is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to more rational expansion, reflecting a shift in the AI server industry [8]. - Despite the slowdown, investment in AI infrastructure remains a key growth driver for the technology sector, although growth will be more moderate than previously expected due to various limiting factors [8].