Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Before the National Day holiday, urea prices are expected to fluctuate due to pre - holiday price cuts to attract orders and some information disturbances. The spot price has limited downside space before and during the holiday, and the futures will fluctuate after the spot price stabilizes [2][3][4]. - Medium - term: The trend is weak. Although exports are accelerating, the pre - stocked trade volume limits price drivers. Weak domestic demand is the main contradiction, and export growth is expected to be unable to offset the weakening domestic demand. The price will gradually approach the cash - flow cost line of fixed - bed plants in northern regions [4]. - Trading strategies: - Unilateral: Fluctuate before the National Day; contracts 11, 12, and 01 have a weak trend, while contracts 02, 03, 04, and 05 are strong with peak - season demand expectations. For contract 01, the upper pressure is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the static lower support is 1600 - 1620 yuan/ton, with the dynamic support expected to decline. It is recommended to short at high prices [4]. - Inter - period: Reverse spreads for 11 - 05/12 - 05 and 1 - 5 at high prices [4]. - Inter - commodity: No recommendations [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - Capacity: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea capacity continues. In 2024, the total new capacity was 427 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 346 tons [27]. - Production: From September 18 - 24, 2025, China's urea production was 140.15 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.15 tons (5.38%). Next week, the production is expected to be around 140 - 141 tons, with little change. The production profit is at the break - even point, and the daily production remains high [2][32]. - Cost: Raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The cash - flow cost corresponding to urea currently shows a profit [35][40]. - Net imports (exports): Export policy adjustments may increase future export volumes. In 2025, as of June, the export volume was 6.6 tons [45]. Demand - Agricultural demand: Seasonally, the demand is strong. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea in corn cultivation. However, currently, the northern agricultural top - dressing demand has basically ended, and the year - on - year growth rate has declined significantly [2][51][54]. - Industrial demand: - Compound fertilizer: The production cost, inventory, and production profit data are provided. Currently, the finished - product sales pressure is high, the operating rate is low, and the demand for urea raw materials is limited [58][59][60]. - Melamine: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate data are provided [62][63]. - Real estate: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [64]. Inventory - Factory inventory: On September 24, 2025, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 121.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.29 tons (4.54%). The overall inventory shows an upward trend, with some regional differences [3]. - Port inventory: As of September 25, 2025 (week 39), China's urea port sample inventory was 49.63 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.97 tons (3.82%). The port inventory is affected by the approaching domestic holiday, with both cargo collection and departure [3]. Valuation The report provides data on urea basis, monthly spreads, and spot prices at home and abroad, which can be used for price and spread analysis [8][12][18][23].

Core Insights - The EU's carbon tariff policy (CBAM) was proposed in 2021 and will officially be implemented in 2026, significantly impacting China's exports of high-energy-consuming products, particularly in the steel, aluminum, cement, and fertilizer industries [1][5][7]. Impact on Export Costs - The implementation of the carbon tariff is projected to increase the export costs of China's high-energy-consuming products by 6%-19%, with the steel industry facing the most significant impact, potentially seeing costs rise by approximately 19% by 2034 [1][2][25]. - In the absence of China's carbon market inclusion, the steel industry may incur carbon tariffs amounting to nearly 20 billion yuan [1][25]. Industry-Specific Analysis - The steel industry is expected to experience a price increase of 14%-16% in the international market, while the US and Turkey, utilizing low-carbon steel production methods, will gain a competitive advantage [2][3]. - The fertilizer industry will see a cost increase of over 9%, while the aluminum and cement industries will experience increases of over 6% [1][25]. Recommendations for Mitigation - The report suggests prioritizing carbon reduction in the steel industry, aiming for a 24% reduction by 2030, and increasing the share of low-carbon steel production [2][3]. - It also recommends improving the carbon market framework in China and expanding exports of high-value-added products to mitigate the impact of the carbon tariff [2][3]. Trade Structure and Competitiveness - China's exports to the EU accounted for 16% of its total exports in 2022, with over 50% being high-energy-consuming products, indicating a significant reliance on these sectors [1][5][15]. - The report highlights the need for China to optimize its trade structure and deepen industrial cooperation with countries like Turkey and Japan to counteract the effects of the carbon tariff [2][3].

——现货磨底 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响尿素走势的核心矛盾有以下几点：一是季节性的需求淡季，二是出口预期的结束。我们认为尿 素或维持震荡走势。我们可以看到，近期尿素价格走势和现货情况呈现了高度的相关性，后期需要关注现货 成交情况。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 source： 南华研究,同花顺 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 23/12 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 source： 南华研究 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 0 2 4 6 虽然尿素增设了交割库，但最便宜可交割品地点仍为河南与山东。考虑到01合约出口预期消失，1-5月差走反 套。由于01合约还有秋季肥预期，尿素01合约仍有升水。 南华期货尿素产业周报 * 远端交易预期 截止本周国内尿素日产20.01万吨，下周潞安大颗粒、赤天化装置陆续恢复，金象装置检修，天泽检修计划或 有推迟，预计下周国内尿素日产量继续小幅提 ...

研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.09.26」 尿素市场周报 尿素期货价格走势 郑州尿素期货价格走势 • 本周郑州尿素主力合约价格震荡收涨，周度+0.48%。 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： UR2601合约短线预计在1650-1700区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场继续下探，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂下跌至1560-1620元/ 吨，均价环比下跌35元/吨。 行情展望：近期部分停车装置恢复，国内尿素日产量增加，本周暂无企业计划停车，2-5家停车企 业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，产量可能小幅波动。国内农业需求较为零散，局部农 业需求或有小幅提升，对尿素市场支撑有限。工业需求较为平稳，其中复合肥秋季肥生产进入后 期，华北大部需求转淡，企业减负荷停车或进一步增多，预计复合肥产能利用率维持小幅下降态 势。国庆长假的临近，尿素工厂陆续启动国庆收单，主产销区主力工厂率先下调报价，以此来刺 激下游接货。近期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a work plan by seven government departments to stabilize and optimize the petrochemical industry in China from 2025 to 2026, focusing on innovation, investment, market demand, development carriers, and international cooperation [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Innovation - The petrochemical industry is expected to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026, with improved economic benefits and enhanced technological innovation capabilities [1]. - Emphasis is placed on supporting key products such as electronic chemicals and high-end polyolefins, as well as upgrading bulk products like coatings [1]. Group 2: Investment and Capacity Control - The plan includes strict control over new refining capacity and a scientific approach to the release of new capacities for ethylene and paraxylene, aiming to prevent overcapacity risks in the coal-to-methanol industry [1]. - There will be a push for the renovation and upgrading of outdated facilities, alongside the implementation of AI in the petrochemical sector [1]. Group 3: Market Demand Expansion - The strategy aims to tap into consumption potential in traditional sectors like construction and automotive, while also fostering new applications in emerging fields such as renewable energy and low-altitude economy [2]. - The integration of domestic and foreign trade is highlighted as a key focus area [2]. Group 4: Development Carriers and Competitiveness - The plan includes evaluating the competitiveness and intelligence levels of chemical parks, guiding them to improve and focus on strengthening industrial chains [2]. - The goal is to cultivate advanced manufacturing clusters and characteristic industries among small and medium enterprises [2]. Group 5: Open Cooperation and International Standards - The work plan emphasizes the importance of stabilizing foreign trade policies and advancing overseas resource development through joint ventures [2]. - There is a focus on enhancing cooperation in fields such as fine chemicals, green low-carbon technologies, and artificial intelligence, along with improving standards and product certification systems to align with international practices [2].

Group 1: Core Business Development - New Yangfeng Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. has established a strong presence in Xinjiang, focusing on the integration of "base + product + technology" to support agricultural development and promote unity among ethnic groups [1][2] - The company has expanded its production capacity with a base in Changji, achieving an annual output value of approximately 350 million yuan, while also creating over 100 local jobs [2] - A new project in Aksu, with an expected annual output of 600,000 tons of specialized fertilizers, aims to cover 60 million mu of farmland in southern Xinjiang, fostering a cycle of corporate growth and regional prosperity [2] Group 2: Product Customization - New Yangfeng tailors its products to meet the specific agricultural needs of Xinjiang, addressing challenges such as drought and soil salinization [3] - The company has developed water-soluble fertilizers that have increased cotton yields by 20-30 kg per mu for local farmers, enhancing nutrient absorption and fruiting rates [3] - A collaborative project with the Xinjiang Water Resources Department focuses on improving cotton growth through innovative liquid fertilizers, contributing to sustainable agricultural practices [3] Group 3: Technical Services and Training - New Yangfeng has established a team of agronomists to provide hands-on training and support to local farmers, conducting over 300 training sessions in the past five years [4] - The company has successfully implemented its products in various regions, leading to significant improvements in crop yield and quality, fostering trust and emotional connection with the farmers [4] - The initiatives have not only enhanced agricultural productivity but also contributed to the economic development of the region, embodying the vision of "industrial prosperity, ethnic unity, and shared growth" [4]

近一年中国矿物肥料及化肥进口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国化肥行业市场研究分析及前景战略研判报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年7月中国矿物肥料及化肥进口数量为68万吨，同比下降20%，进口金额 为2.47亿美元，同比下降14.6%，2025年7月中国矿物肥料及化肥出口数量为570万吨，同比增长86.5%， 出口金额为20.8亿美元，同比增长135.1%。 近一年中国矿物肥料及化肥出口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

中化新网讯 近日，山东能源新疆能化新疆煤化工有限责任公司(简称新疆煤化)首批尿素出口订单发运， 总计1.7万吨产品正式启航海外，标志着新疆煤化工成功进入国际尿素贸易市场。 本次出口业务的成功，不仅验证了新疆煤化在产销协同、储运联动方面的体系能力，也为该企业进一步 拓展海外市场积累了宝贵经验。未来，新疆煤化将以更加开放的姿态，积极参与国际竞争，通过灵活应 对机制应对市场变化，持续优化管理，不断提升产品国际竞争力。 在生产环节，新疆煤化严格按照国际标准和技术协议要求，精细调控工艺参数，使尿素产品符合出口要 求。质量检测中心实施多频次监控，为产品质量提供坚实数据支撑，实现出厂产品零投诉。 在储运方面，公司科学规划库容，实行出口产品专区管理，严格执行先进先出原则，防止产品污染与受 潮。同时，建立全程监装和专人跟踪机制，实时掌握发运状态，及时应对突发状况，保障货物按时集 港、无缝对接国际市场。 面对国际贸易中的诸多挑战，新疆煤化通过建立跨部门协同机制，实现从生产、仓储到运输各环节的高 效衔接。与铁路、港口等单位的紧密配合，不仅保障了运力资源的稳定供应，也展现出快速响应国际市 场需求的综合能力。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market has manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. After the spot price fell below the previous low, the trading volume improved, but the sustainability was insufficient. The spot price fluctuated weakly. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving sentiment before the festival. - The domestic demand is weak. The inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia. The start - up time of demand in Northeast China should be followed up. - Urea production remains at a high level. In the medium and long term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose. - The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. The export window period in September is ongoing, and the export rhythm is accelerating. The port inventory is decreasing. The export volume in September is still expected. Attention should be paid to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - The report presents the market prices of small - granular urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [7][8][16][18] Urea Production - The report shows the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [21][24] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes the production cost, spot production profit, and coal - based and gas - based production capacity utilization rates [25][26][30] Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report presents the FOB prices of small - granular urea in the Baltic Sea and large - granular urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - granular urea in China, the price differences between them, and the export profit and the disk export profit [32][34][40][42][45] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The report shows the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [51][52][53] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, the raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the position volume, and trading volume of the main contract [56][59][62]

Group 1 - The fertilizer sector is experiencing a volatile rebound, with LuHua Technology hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies such as ChuanJinNuo, XinYangFeng, HuaLu HengSheng, LuXi Chemical, XingFa Group, and ChiTianHua are also seeing gains [1]