Core Viewpoint - The company, Si Er Te (002538.SZ), is restructuring its internal organization to address historical issues related to overlapping functions between its subsidiaries in Anhui Province [1] Group 1: Company Restructuring - Si Er Te plans to establish a new wholly-owned subsidiary to take over the assets, liabilities, personnel, and business operations of its existing subsidiaries, Anhui Si Er Te Fertilizer Technology Co., Ltd. and Xuancheng Si Er Te Fertilizer Co., Ltd. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Salt Lake Co., has confirmed that its production and sales of potassium chloride are meeting expected targets, indicating a stable operational performance [1] Production Summary - The company is continuously optimizing its production processes to enhance resource utilization efficiency [1] - There is a focus on daily production management to ensure alignment with annual production and sales targets [1] Sales Summary - The company is strengthening market analysis and customer collaboration to ensure smooth production and sales coordination [1]

【冠通期货研究报告】 内需支撑不足，盘面下挫 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 11 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开低走，日内下跌，基本收复上周五涨幅。下游畏高，上游工厂 多执行前期低价订单，预计短期现货报价将继续下调。山东、河南及河北尿素工 厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1550-1600 元/吨，个别工厂低端价格略有下调。 基本面来看，供应端基本稳定，日产在 20 万吨左右震荡运行，复产及新投产支 撑高供应的运行。煤炭原料端，供暖旺季价格快速回升，今年冷冬预期下，成本 线预计持续支撑尿素下方。期货盘面降温后，市场高价成交抵触，下游需求以储 备型内需为主，苏皖地区的小麦肥收尾，复合肥工厂刚需拿货，目前工厂开工温 和上行，冬储政策尚未明确，东北地区工厂预计月底逐渐开工，备肥节奏缓慢， 下游需求目前难以支撑价格。供需相对宽松，上游厂内尿素库存继续增加，且部 分上游工厂以淡储为主，谨慎出货，预计库存继续环比回升。出口消息目前基本 被盘面消化，而疲弱内需难以支撑行情，期现共振下行，现货依然贴水于期货， 但基差环比收窄。 2025 年 11 月 11 日，尿素仓单数量 6812 张，环比上个交易日+685 张，辽宁 化 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that urea will continue its downward trend. The domestic supply is abundant, and with the end of the autumn fertilizer season in North China, the overall demand is set to enter a "vacuum period." Although the issuance of the fourth batch of export quotas may boost market sentiment in the short - term, the fundamentals of urea remain loose [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures fluctuated and weakened, closing at 1640 (-21/-1.26%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - factory prices were weakly stable with average trading. Different regions had different ex - factory price ranges, such as 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton in Henan, 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton for small - sized in Shandong and Hebei, 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton for medium and small - sized in Shanxi, 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton for small - sized in Anhui, and 1420 - 1490 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [3]. Important Information - On November 11, the daily production of the urea industry was 19.51 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and an increase of 1.49 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.41%, up 3.68% from 79.73% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - The impact of the news about the new export quota has faded, and market sentiment has cooled. In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory quotes led the increase, but market sentiment cooled, with the industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declining, raw material inventory being abundant, finished product inventory being high, and few grass - roots orders. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, and the ex - factory quotes followed the increase. In the areas around the delivery zone, the ex - factory prices followed the increase, and the market atmosphere was average. The demand in Northeast China was stable, and the trading sentiment was okay [5]. - The maintenance devices have gradually returned, and the daily average production has increased to around 19.6 tons. On the demand side, with the issuance of the fourth batch of quotas, the influence of international prices on the domestic market has increased again. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China has basically ended, and the grass - roots stockpiling is coming to an end. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the urea inventory can be used for more than half a month. The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased slightly by 20,000 tons to around 1.58 million tons, which is at a high level overall [5]. - The domestic supply is loose, and the overall demand is showing a downward trend. In the short term, the domestic demand is still limited. Although the new quota issuance will boost market sentiment to some extent in the short - term, the domestic autumn fertilizer has ended, and the overall demand is about to enter a "vacuum period." With the recent callback of bulk commodities and the loose fundamentals of urea, it is expected that urea will continue to decline [5]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short at high levels [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Yuntianhua announced the convening of a temporary board meeting to discuss the appointment of a new vice president, reflecting ongoing corporate governance activities [1] - For the first half of 2025, Yuntianhua's revenue composition is as follows: fertilizers account for 50.88%, trade for 32.25%, phosphate chemicals for 5.73%, others for 3.41%, and engineering materials for 2.81% [1] - As of the report, Yuntianhua's market capitalization stands at 64.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The article also mentions that prior to the arrest of the chairman of Peking University Pharmaceutical, police had conducted investigations at the group's factory, indicating potential issues within the company [1] - Internal sources suggest that the group's assets were disposed of by the chairman, leading to significant amounts of funds with unclear whereabouts [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a collaborative production cut in the caprolactam industry, with a 20% reduction agreed upon by participating factories, alongside a price increase of 100 CNY per ton [4][5]. - The report notes the implementation of a 600,000-ton urea export quota, with rising costs for urea producers due to increased coal and natural gas prices, suggesting a strong cost support for urea prices [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the upward price trend in the pyrethroid industry, driven by recent price increases for various products, indicating potential for further price elasticity as the agricultural season approaches [4][5]. Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgments indicate a stable increase in global oil demand, with Brent crude oil expected to maintain a price range of 60-70 USD per barrel [5][6]. - The report discusses the long-term stabilization of coal prices and the potential decrease in natural gas import costs due to accelerated export facility construction in the U.S. [5][6]. - The report provides insights into the chemical cycle's operational phase, noting a decrease in the PPI for industrial products and a slight recovery in manufacturing activity as indicated by the PMI [6][10]. Chemical Sector Configuration - The report suggests investment strategies focusing on the textile chain, agricultural chemicals, export-related chemicals, and companies benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [4][5]. - Specific companies to watch include Luxi Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng in the caprolactam sector, and Xinlianxin and Hualu Hengsheng in the urea sector [4][5]. - The report identifies key materials for growth, emphasizing the importance of self-sufficiency in semiconductor materials and other critical components [4][5]. Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating ratings such as "Buy" and "Increase" for various firms in the agricultural chemicals and chemical sectors, with specific market capitalizations and profit forecasts [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish, opportunistic cash-and-carry arbitrage in futures and spot markets [3] - Inter - delivery spread: On the sidelines [3] - Inter - commodity: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea prices are temporarily stable, but new order follow - up has slowed. The market sentiment has improved due to export quota news, with some regions' agricultural autumn fertilizers ending, compound fertilizer autumn fertilizers winding up, and melamine's operation slightly increasing. In the medium - to - long - term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose. The fourth - quarter gas - based plant maintenance is expected to start in December. The export sentiment still affects the urea market, and the newly - obtained export quota and the Indian import tender may support the spot market. Attention should be paid to the start - up rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light - storage rhythm [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 10, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,660 yuan/ton (-7). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,620 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,620 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,610 yuan/ton (+30). The basis in Shandong was - 40 yuan/ton (+27), in Henan was - 40 yuan/ton (+27), and in Jiangsu was - 50 yuan/ton (+37) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of November 10, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.71% (0.08% change). There is information about urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume in related figures [1][17] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On November 10, 2025, the urea production profit was 90 yuan/ton (+20). There are also data on production cost, spot production profit, and capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based production in related figures [1][19] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - On November 10, 2025, the urea export profit was 962 yuan/ton (+42). The report mentions that urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons, and on November 7, India's IPL issued a new urea import tender for 2.5 million tons. There are also data on overseas prices and export profit margins in related figures [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rates and Orders - As of November 10, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 31.04% (0.00% change), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 53.20% (+3.22%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.29 days (-0.24) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.5781 million tons (+23,800), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000) [1]

Group 1 - The fertilizer sector experienced a short-term rebound on November 11, with companies such as Hong Sifang and Chuanfa Longmang seeing gains of over 2% [1] - Other stocks in the sector, including Yuntu Holdings, Yara International, Hubei Yihua, and Liuguo Chemical, also followed the upward trend [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Export sentiment boost in the short term cannot offset weak domestic demand, and the rebound space is limited under high inventory pressure [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamentals and Views - About 600,000 tons of new quotas have been implemented, boosting market sentiment, and the overseas price difference supports a short - term price rebound [4] - Coal prices remain stable, the operating rate of gas - based enterprises decreases seasonally, and the relief of cost pressure supports the bottom [4] - The autumn fertilizer season is ending, the operating rate of compound fertilizers is declining, agricultural demand is weakening, downstream procurement is cautious, and enterprise inventories remain at a high level [4] - The industry's daily average output is 198,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 14,400 tons), and the operating rate of 84.6% has reached a high for the same period. The oversupply situation remains unchanged [4] Urea Fundamental Data Inventory - Information on China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, and urea inventory (ports + inland) is presented in time - series charts from 2021 - 2025 [7][8][9] Futures and Warehouse Receipts - Data on the position volume, trading volume, total warehouse receipt quantity, and total valid warehouse receipt forecasts of the urea futures main contract are shown in time - series charts from 2021 - 2025 [10][11][13][14] Price and Spread - Time - series charts from 2021 - 2025 show the market price of small - particle urea in Henan and Shandong, the basis, the price difference between large and small particles, and the seasonal spreads between different contract months (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1) [17][19][20][22] Cost and Profit - Time - series charts from 2021 - 2025 present the production costs and profits of urea produced by fixed - bed, natural gas, and coal - water slurry gasification methods, as well as the production cost, gross profit, capacity utilization rate, and inventory of compound fertilizers in Shandong [28][30][32][38][39][40] Production and Capacity Utilization - Time - series charts from 2021 - 2025 show the production enterprise's pending order days, capacity utilization rate, total daily output of urea, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers [33][35][37][38] External Market and Related Commodities - Time - series charts from 2021 - 2025 display the FOB prices of Chinese and Middle - Eastern small - particle urea, the spot price of thermal coal, and the port inventory of thermal coal [42][44][46]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The sentiment in the domestic urea market has cooled, with supply being ample and demand showing a downward trend. Although the issuance of the fourth batch of export quotas will boost market sentiment in the short - term, the urea fundamentals remain loose in the medium to long - term. Attention should be paid to the downstream acceptance of price increases [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures fluctuated weakly, closing at 1660 (-8/-0.48%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: Factory prices rose, but trading was average. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized particles 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized particles 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized particles 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized particles 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1420 - 1490 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information On November 10, the daily urea production was 19.51 tons, 0.28 tons less than the previous working day and 1.08 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.41%, 1.89% higher than 81.52% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: Maintenance devices have gradually resumed operation, and the average daily output has increased to around 19.6 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The issuance of the fourth batch of quotas has made the impact of international prices on the domestic market more prominent. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China has basically ended, and the demand is weakening. The inventory of urea production enterprises has slightly increased to around 158 tons [5]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, domestic demand is limited, and the spot market sentiment is still sluggish. Although the issuance of the new quota will boost the market sentiment, the overall domestic demand will enter a "vacuum period" again after the autumn fertilizer season. In the medium to long - term, the urea fundamentals are still loose [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Short positions are recommended [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6].