Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Previously, the urea market was affected by macro - policies such as anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity, with positive sentiment. However, the market sentiment declined, and the macro - atmosphere changed, leading to a decline in the urea futures market. - Urea production is at a high level, with sufficient supply. Agricultural demand is ending, and industrial demand is in the off - season. There are no bright spots on the demand side. - The company's inventory is still in the destocking cycle, but the destocking rate has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years. Urea exports are restricted, and the overall port inventory has changed little [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On July 28, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1738 yuan/ton (- 65). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1790 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1800 yuan/ton (- 10). The Shandong basis was 42 yuan/ton (+ 55), the Henan basis was 52 yuan/ton (+ 45), and the Jiangsu basis was 62 yuan/ton (+ 55) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of July 28, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.59% (0.08%). Newly added urea production devices are gradually put into operation, and the output remains high [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of July 28, 2025, the urea production profit was 250 yuan/ton (- 10). The overall operating rate of urea is at a high level [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of July 28, 2025, the urea export profit was 1037 yuan/ton (- 46). Urea exports are restricted, and the second batch of export quotas is progressing slowly [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of July 28, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.58% (+ 1.03%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 65.20% (+ 0.96%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (- 0.12). Agricultural demand is ending, industrial demand is in the off - season, and the start - up of autumn compound fertilizer production has been slow to increase [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of July 28, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 85.88 million tons (- 3.67), and the port sample inventory was 54.30 million tons (+ 0.20). The enterprise inventory is still in the destocking cycle, but the destocking rate has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2024 Central Document emphasizes "ensuring national food security" as a priority, highlighting the importance of urea supply for the food safety of 1.4 billion people [1] Group 1: Fertilizer Supply and Price Stability - Urea, accounting for over 60% of nitrogen fertilizer usage in China, significantly contributes to food production, with its price stability directly affecting farmers' costs and national food security [2] - The traditional storage system faces challenges such as "off-season price increases and peak-season price drops," leading to financial pressure on storage enterprises and limited market regulation capabilities [2] - The introduction of urea futures and the "Worry-Free Storage" pilot project aims to enhance risk management and support the supply and price stability strategy [2][6] Group 2: Collaboration and Risk Management - The collaboration between the futures company and Yitong Data demonstrates a commitment to enhancing risk management capabilities and facilitating the transition from "participants" to "communicators" in the futures market [3][7] - The "Worry-Free Storage" project encourages storage enterprises to use urea futures to hedge against price fluctuations, providing essential support for the national supply and price stability strategy [6][8] - The futures company actively engages with enterprises to improve their understanding of futures tools, thereby enhancing their risk management capabilities and encouraging proactive participation in the futures market [7][8] Group 3: Supporting Spring Farming - The establishment of pre-storage centers in major agricultural production areas aims to ensure timely supply of fertilizers during the spring farming peak, addressing logistical challenges and reducing distribution costs [5] - The "Guarantee Supply and Price Stability" initiative includes activities such as efficient delivery of agricultural inputs and financial services to support farmers' needs during the spring farming season [4][5]

Core Insights - The training program aims to enhance risk management capabilities of enterprises in Inner Mongolia, particularly in coal chemical and soft commodity industries, by utilizing the futures market [1] - The participation rate of listed companies in hedging activities has steadily increased, with 1,503 companies announcing hedging plans in 2024, representing a participation rate of 28.6% [1][2] - The volatility in commodity prices and intense industry competition are driving companies to improve their risk management strategies [2] Group 1: Training and Participation - The training session was attended by nearly a hundred representatives from state-owned enterprises and listed companies in Inner Mongolia, focusing on practical paths for utilizing the futures market for risk management [1] - Companies like Huayou Cobalt, Yuntianhua, and COFCO have integrated futures tools into their overall development strategies, establishing mature risk management models [1][2] - The number of industry clients participating in trading specific commodities, such as soybean meal and glass, has increased by over 20% in 2024 [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges and Solutions - Companies in sectors like chemicals, grain and oil, and livestock often operate near breakeven points, making raw material cost management critical for survival [2] - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer Co. has successfully implemented hedging strategies, achieving a profit of 50 yuan per ton through futures contracts [2] - The "five-in-one" methodology for integrating business and finance in hedging practices was proposed to address challenges in applying hedge accounting [3] Group 3: Market and Regulatory Environment - The futures market is recognized as a professional platform for risk management, with a comprehensive system of commodity futures and options covering key sectors of the economy [4] - Inner Mongolia has 29 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 786.88 billion yuan, but only 6 companies, or 20.69%, are engaged in hedging activities, which is below the national average [4] - Local regulatory bodies are working with exchanges to enhance the utilization of futures tools among enterprises to promote high-quality development of the capital market [4] Group 4: Feedback and Future Directions - Attendees expressed that the training deepened their understanding of the futures market's functions and they plan to explore hedging models tailored to their business needs [5]

印度前5月尿素进口量增加，为何印度化肥短缺警报仍未解除？在旺季需求高涨的背景下，尿素市场离 新一轮上涨还有多远？ 期货盯盘神器专属文章 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term urea futures prices may fluctuate weakly. The domestic urea spot market price has been fluctuating weakly this week. With many recent plant overhauls, the supply is in a state of phased reduction. Although the inventory of urea enterprises continues to decline due to some goods being shipped to ports, the decline rate has narrowed due to the phased weakening of agricultural demand. The agricultural top - dressing demand is coming to an end, the enthusiasm for picking up autumn fertilizers is low, the finished product inventory pressure of compound fertilizers is large, and the start - up is still in a state of gradual recovery from a low level. However, there is an expected marginal improvement in autumn fertilizers and export demand provides strong bottom support for urea. The UR2509 contract should pay attention to the support around 1680 - 1720 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - long Views Summary - **Supply**: Many plants are under maintenance recently, resulting in a phased reduction in supply. The weekly urea output is 1354700 tons (-1.02%), among which the coal - based urea output is 1062300 tons (-1.35%), and the gas - based urea output is 292400 tons (+0.17%), with an average daily output of 194000 tons [5][21]. - **Demand**: The support from agricultural demand has weakened phasedly, but there are still expectations for autumn fertilizers and exports. The compound fertilizer enterprise start - up rate is 33.58% (+1.03%), and the finished product inventory is 742100 tons (a month - on - month increase of 6300 tons). The start - up of melamine is 65.20% (+0.96%), and downstream maintains rigid demand procurement [5][35]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises has decreased, but the decline rate has narrowed. The urea enterprise inventory is 858800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36700 tons. The port inventory is 543000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 2000 tons). The mainstream pre - collection days of urea enterprises are 5.94 days (a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%), and the number of days of orders to be delivered by enterprises has decreased slightly month - on - month [5][32]. - **Cost and Profit**: Coal prices are moderately strong, and urea profits have decreased month - on - month [5]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread is running weakly, and the change in the 09 basis is limited [5]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Domestic Urea Market Price**: The domestic urea market price has been fluctuating upwards this week [7]. - **International Urea Price**: International urea prices have shown a mixed trend of rising and falling [11]. - **Supply**: Many plants are under maintenance recently, resulting in a phased reduction in supply. Some enterprises such as Hulunbuir Jinxin Chemical Co., Ltd. and Shanxi Jinmei Tianyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. have planned maintenance [17][25]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises has decreased, but the decline rate has narrowed. The port inventory has changed slightly [28][32]. - **Demand**: The support from agricultural demand has weakened phasedly, but there are still expectations for autumn fertilizers and exports. The start - up rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased slightly [34][35]. - **Raw Material End**: Coal prices have maintained an upward trend [37]. - **Profit**: Urea profits have decreased slightly month - on - month [43]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 9 - 1 spread is running weakly, and the change in the 09 basis is limited [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Urea's futures market opened low and closed lower, with a decline of over 3% at the end of the session. The upstream factory quotes have been on a downward trend since the weekend, and market activity is low. Fundamentally, urea supply is sufficient, with daily production remaining at a high level. Although production is expected to weaken this month, the loose supply pattern has not changed. On the demand side, agricultural demand continues to weaken, and downstream demand is mainly supported by the rigid needs of compound fertilizer factories. Although there is support from export containerization, the inventory reduction rate of urea factories has slowed down, indicating weak terminal demand. The market sentiment has cooled down, and the market may rebound in the short - term but will be weakly volatile in the medium - term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea's futures market opened low and closed lower, with a decline of over 3% at the end of the session. The upstream factory quotes have been on a downward trend since the weekend, and market activity is low. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although there was a short - term rise last week, the market has cooled down. The market may rebound in the short - term but will be weakly volatile in the medium - term [1] Futures Market - The urea main contract 2509 opened at 1750 yuan/ton, closed at 1738 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.34%. The trading volume was 153124 lots (-18485 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions decreased by 6716 lots, and short positions decreased by 9851 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed. On July 28, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2900, an increase of 377 compared with the previous trading day [2] Spot Market - The upstream factory quotes have been on a downward trend since the weekend, and market activity is low. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is 1740 - 1770 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - The basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, with the basis of the September contract at 52 yuan/ton (+45 yuan/ton). On July 28, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,700 tons, remaining flat compared with the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.47% [8][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the expected implementation of a new round of stable growth work plans in key industries, including petrochemicals, which will promote structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release specific work plans for ten key industries, focusing on optimizing supply and eliminating backward production capacity [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to accelerate the supply-side reform in the chemical industry, particularly in sub-industries such as refining, PTA/PX, fertilizers, pigments, organic silicon/industrial silicon, soda ash, and chlor-alkali/PVC [2] Group 2 - In the refining sector, strict control of production capacity and low operating rates of local refineries are expected to improve the profitability of major refineries [3] - As of July 17, the operating rate of local refineries in Shandong was only 47.31%, indicating a historical low, which is expected to maintain due to the peak demand trend for refined oil [3] - The government aims to keep domestic crude oil processing capacity below 1 billion tons by 2025, with a target utilization rate of over 80% for major products [3] Group 3 - The urea industry is projected to see a gradual reduction in supply, which, combined with potential export opportunities, is expected to improve industry conditions [5] - By 2025, the new urea production capacity is estimated to be 4.93 million tons, accounting for only 6.5% of the current total capacity of 76.07 million tons, indicating limited future supply growth [5] Group 4 - The demand for soda ash and PVC is expected to recover due to increased infrastructure needs, with significant new production capacities planned for 2025-2026 [6] - The planned new soda ash capacity for 2025-2026 is 8.68 million tons, representing 20% of the total capacity in 2024, while the PVC capacity increase is projected to be 5 million tons, or 17% of the 2024 total capacity [6] - The "anti-involution" policy is likely to facilitate ongoing supply-side reforms in the soda ash and PVC industries, leading to improved supply conditions and increased industry concentration [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yara International's stock price has increased by 4.68% to 32.9 yuan, with a rolling PE ratio reaching a new low of 24.25 times over the past 694 days, and a total market capitalization of 30.401 billion yuan [1] - The average PE ratio for the fertilizer industry is 26.09 times, with a median of 23.06 times, placing Yara International at the 17th position within the industry [1] - On July 28, Yara International experienced a net outflow of 10.151 million yuan in main funds, continuing a trend of outflows over the past five days, totaling 142.976 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Yara International's main business includes potassium salt mining, potassium fertilizer production, and sales, with key products being potassium chloride, brine, and others [1] - The latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 shows that the company achieved an operating income of 1.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.47%, and a net profit of 384 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 373.53%, with a sales gross margin of 54.12% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The urea futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 1746.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.89% [1] Market Conditions - In Shandong, the urea market is weak, with small particle mainstream factory transactions ranging from 1740 to 1810 CNY/ton. In the Linyi market, the reference price is around 1780-1790 CNY/ton, while in Heze, it is approximately 1770-1780 CNY/ton [2] - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 967,700 tons, which is higher than last week's expectations. The port sample inventory stands at 489,000 tons, also exceeding last week's expectations [2] - The daily production of urea is 198,600 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from the previous working day but an increase of 29,100 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate is at 85.79%, up 7.52% from last year [2] Institutional Perspectives - Hongyuan Futures indicates that supply pressure in the urea market remains significant, with daily production near 200,000 tons. Although there is a slight reduction in enterprise inventory, upstream companies still hold around 750,000 tons. The demand for top-dressing in July may support prices, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand does not compensate, urea prices could face significant downward pressure. A cautious approach is recommended in the short term due to potential policy adjustments [3] - Yide Futures notes that the industry is undergoing structural adjustments and optimizing supply while eliminating outdated capacity. The macroeconomic environment appears strong, with recent coal production limits leading to a surge in coal futures. However, the urea industry is assessed as highly competitive, primarily influenced by macro sentiment. The market is currently viewed as overvalued, with expectations for urea prices to fall within the 1740-1800 CNY/ton range. Attention is drawn to selling call options for September and maintaining a long position in distant months [3]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price decreased by 0.4% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits slightly declined, with grapes, citrus, and bananas decreasing by 3.8%, 2.3%, and 1.5% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.08 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, with tomatoes, winter melons, and lotus roots decreasing by 6.1%, 4.3%, and 4.1% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products slightly decreased, with large hairtail, crucian carp, and grass carp dropping by 1.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices remained stable, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, while rice remained unchanged and flour and peanut oil increased by 0.2% [1] - Meat wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 20.63 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, while beef increased by 0.2% and lamb remained stable [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with broiler chickens decreasing by 0.3% and eggs increasing by 2.0% [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - The wholesale prices of refined oil slightly decreased, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline dropping by 1.3%, 1.1%, and 1.1% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals slightly declined, with copper, aluminum, and zinc decreasing by 0.9%, 0.9%, and 0.8% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices predominantly decreased, with urea dropping by 0.4% and compound fertilizers increasing by 0.1% [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed slight fluctuations, with sulfuric acid increasing by 0.8% and polypropylene, methanol, and soda ash decreasing by 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Coal prices generally increased, with coking coal and thermal coal priced at 934 yuan and 755 yuan per ton, rising by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, while the price of No. 2 smokeless lump coal remained stable [2] - Steel prices slightly increased, with rebar, hot-rolled strip steel, and high-speed wire rod priced at 3401 yuan, 3538 yuan, and 3584 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.6%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [2] - Rubber prices experienced slight increases, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 1.3% and 0.9% respectively [2]