【编者按】 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中国经济步入新发展阶段。 新形势下，外资投行唱多中国的声音不绝于耳。高盛2026年建议高配A股和港股；摩根大通将中国内地与香港股市评级调升至"超配"；瑞银认 为，政策支持、企业盈利改善及资金流入等因素可能推动A股估值提升。这些判断均反映出国际资本对中国经济转型方向与2026年发展前景的认 同，更预示着冬去春来，全球资本有望流向东方。 智通财经"首席连线"2026年市场展望以《春水向东流》为题，取的也是此意。展望中，"首席连线"工作室将访谈数十位权威经济学家、基金经理 和分析师，请他们谈谈对新一年中国经济的判断，解析投资新机遇。 "从2025年年底机构的预期来看，这是近三年来共识性较强的一年。"近日，嘉实基金股票策略研究总监方晗接受智通财经专访时表示。 据方晗梳理，2026年市场的两大共识相当清晰：一是市场形态——结构性行情仍将延续；二是结构主线——最大的共识依然聚集于AI技术革命。 但在共识背后，他也点出了当前市场需关注的三大核心分歧。 面对2026年的行业配置，方晗则重点看好三条主线：AI扩散、供需改善以及顺周期修复。 驱动市场运行的核心逻辑未变 "无论是当年的' ...

居民存款正迎来新一轮"搬家"。数据显示，今年约有50万亿元定期存款集中到期，而当前银行存款利率 已降至1%多的水平。这笔巨量资金将流向何处？普通投资者又该如何配置自己的财富？ 在期货日报"策马点金"栏目中，前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经理杨德龙从公募基金的优势、2026 年的核心变量、低风险客户的参与路径以及市场长期趋势四个维度，为投资者提供了系统性的分析与建 议。 "居民存款'搬家'是今年一个重要的现象。"杨德龙表示，在楼市低迷的背景下，居民储蓄正面临新的配 置需求。今年约50万亿元定期存款集中到期，而利率已降至1%多，储户必须做出新的选择。 在他看来，公募基金是承接这笔资金比较好的一个选择方向。作为大众理财方式，公募基金具备品种丰 富的天然优势：货币基金流动性好，虽然收益率较低，但适合低风险投资者；债券基金等固收类产品则 适合追求一定回报的投资者；风险偏好较高的投资者，则可以配置混合型基金或股票型基金，分享市场 行情发展的成果。 这一判断的背后，是杨德龙对居民财富配置趋势的长期观察。他认为，随着低利率的到来，居民对收益 的需求日益丰富、迫切，公募基金凭借其产品线的丰富性和专业性，正成为承接居民理财需求的 ...

经济观察网近一周(2026年2月13日至19日)，公开资料中未发现与台湾地区基金市场直接相关的热点事 件。参考资料显示，同期中国大陆多地有新设产业基金动态，如江阴18亿元产业母基金(聚焦智能制 造)、苏州10亿元康养产业基金等，但这些基金均集中于大陆本地产业投资，未涉及台湾市场。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the lesser-known bond index funds compared to stock index funds and offers a free course on how to invest in bond index funds [2] Group 2 - As of early February 2026, the Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in dividend indices, nearing historical highs, while technology indices have declined [6] - The A-share and Hong Kong markets frequently experience style rotation between growth and value, with Hong Kong primarily focusing on dividend indices [6][10] - From September 2024 to September 2025, the growth style in Hong Kong stocks is expected to be strong, with technology stock earnings projected to double year-on-year in the first two quarters of 2025 [7] - During the same period, the Hong Kong value style, such as the Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility Index, increased by approximately 30%, underperforming the overall market [8] - Since September 2025, there has been a style switch in Hong Kong stocks, with growth style experiencing a correction of about 19% while value style continued to rise by approximately 10% [9] - The rotation between growth and value styles is a characteristic of both A-share and Hong Kong markets, driven by limited market funds moving in and out of different styles [10]

Group 1 - A-shares are presenting structural opportunities amidst fluctuations, with public funds initiating a new round of investments in sectors like artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and consumption due to moderate economic recovery and accelerated industrial upgrades [1] - The manufacturing investment and A-share capital expenditure contraction are driving supply-demand rebalancing, providing support for corporate profits, while fiscal changes in special bonds will impact A-share pricing [2] - The market is expected to continue attracting significant incremental capital inflows in 2026, with major contributions from insurance funds and financing, while individual investors are primarily high-net-worth individuals with high-risk preferences [2] Group 2 - The AI sector is a focal point for public fund strategies, with expectations for continued strong performance in the AI industry chain in the first half of 2026, driven by breakthroughs in AI model capabilities and significant growth in annual recurring revenue from AI-native applications [4] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing rapid changes driven by AI large models, with a focus on domestic production and R&D, while non-AI semiconductor sectors may face pressure [5] - The consumption sector is anticipated to see a resurgence in investment opportunities in 2026, driven by the release of wealth effects and an upgrade in high-end and service consumption demands [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is entering a new development stage in 2026, with A-shares showing signs of a "spring rally" driven by three main factors: policy direction, liquidity environment, and industry trends [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a neutral to slightly hot sentiment, with growth sectors still having low valuations [2]. - The upward trend in the stock market is expected to continue, supported by favorable policies, a loose liquidity environment, and ongoing industry trends [2]. - Key macroeconomic observations include the importance of policy guidance and liquidity trends, which are crucial for stock market valuations [2]. Group 2: Policy and Liquidity - Both domestic and international policies are supportive of the stock market, which is seen as a vital tool for boosting consumption and restoring consumer confidence [2]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates to around 3% in 2026, while domestic liquidity remains ample with potential for rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Two main industry directions benefiting from policy support are technological innovation and stimulating domestic demand [3]. - The AI sector is highlighted as a core area of competition, with significant investments expected to drive demand across the computing power supply chain, including GPUs and storage [3][4]. - The development rhythm in the industry shows a clear pattern of "hardware leading, applications following," with AI applications entering a rapid growth phase [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the AI sector are primarily focused on computing power, with a need to monitor downstream demand growth and capital expenditure trends [5]. - Specific segments within the computing power direction, such as raw materials and chips, are expected to have significant performance potential [5]. - The second key area for stimulating domestic demand includes opportunities in consumer sectors, particularly in the real estate market, where signs of recovery are emerging [6]. Group 5: Pharmaceutical Sector - The outlook for the consumer and innovative pharmaceutical sectors is cautiously optimistic, with valuations having adjusted and entering a more favorable investment zone [6]. - Investors are encouraged to seek innovative pharmaceutical companies with global competitiveness, especially those with strong product offerings and positive sales trends [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy amidst global economic challenges, driven by technological innovation and industrial upgrades [1] - The public fund industry in China has experienced significant growth, with assets under management projected to increase from 8.4 trillion yuan in 2015 to 37.71 trillion yuan by the end of 2025 [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has outlined a plan to enhance the core research and investment capabilities of public funds, encouraging the adoption of emerging technologies like AI and big data [3][4] Group 2 - The company is committed to a "professional, industrialized, and intelligent" investment research system, aiming to transform individual insights into collective investment outcomes [4][5] - The "10+10" talent development program is designed to cultivate fund managers through a decade of research and a decade of investment practice, emphasizing long-termism in the industry [4] - The company has achieved leading performance in both equity and fixed income sectors, ranking first in absolute returns among major fund companies [6] Group 3 - The company prioritizes long-term client relationships, emphasizing trust and communication through various engagement initiatives, including nearly 500 offline events and extensive market insights [7][8] - The service model includes a blend of AI and human interaction, ensuring personalized support for clients, particularly for elderly investors [8] - Product innovation is focused on aligning the interests of fund managers and investors, reinforcing the commitment to long-term value investment [9]

万马骁腾辞旧岁，大潮奔涌启华章。值此新春佳节之际，我谨代表光大保德信基金向长期以来信任与托付我们的广大投资者、携手共进的合作伙伴，致以 最诚挚的感谢！祝愿大家龙马精神、万事胜意！ 日本早稻田大学经济学博士，财政部宏观人才库专家、金融人才库专家、财政政策研究专家工作室专家，中国证券业协会首席经济学家委员会委员，中国 资本市场学会宏观与产业专委会委员，2023年10月和2025年9月两次参加国务院总理主持召开的经济形势专家和企业家座谈会，就经济工作建言献策。 回望2025，时代浪潮奔涌向前。这一年，中国式现代化迈出坚实步伐，高质量发展绘就壮美画卷；国内生产总值首次跨越140万亿元大关，经济增长质效 同步提升，为发展筑牢坚实根基；新质生产力加速崛起，人工智能、量子科技等前沿领域成果频出。这一年，公募基金行业顺应国家发展大势，在改革中 前行：行业规模突破37万亿元大关，创历史新高；标志性政策法规相继落地，推动公募行业生态体系实现系统性重塑；费率改革向深向实，综合费率稳步 下行，让利于民成效彰显；公募REITs扩容提速，商业不动产试点破冰启航，激活存量资产新动能……这一年，公募基金行业正以更专业、更规范、更开 放的姿态 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fund managers are focusing on domestic demand and AI-driven sectors as key investment opportunities in the current market environment, with a particular emphasis on consumer sectors and technology applications [1][2][4]. Group 1: Domestic Demand Focus - Fund managers are optimistic about the domestic consumption sector, highlighting a potential turning point driven by the release of household wealth and an upgrade in high-end consumption and service demand [2][7]. - The investment strategy emphasizes identifying companies benefiting from domestic demand expansion and those showing profit recovery amid a "de-involution" backdrop, which could significantly influence market indices [2][7]. - Traditional industries, such as liquor and real estate, are being closely monitored for potential investment opportunities, especially as some real estate companies show signs of recovery [2][7][8]. Group 2: New Consumption Trends - The recovery and expansion of offline commercial sectors are seen as critical investment themes, supported by a stable online-to-offline market transition and lower commercial real estate rents [3][8]. - High-end consumer goods, particularly in outdoor sports and cosmetics, are gaining traction, with domestic brands showing competitive advantages through innovation and market understanding [3][8]. - The international expansion of Chinese consumer brands is shifting from price competitiveness to cultural and service-based differentiation, enhancing their global appeal [3][8]. Group 3: AI and Technology Sector - AI remains a crucial structural investment direction, with expectations for significant applications in hardware and software, particularly in consumer electronics and robotics [4][9]. - The ongoing technological advancements and increased capital expenditure from major players are expected to sustain the momentum in the tech sector through 2026 [4][9]. - Investment opportunities in AI applications, smart driving, and semiconductors are anticipated to grow, despite potential market fluctuations [4][9].

Market Analysis and Review - The recent decline in the dividend index raises questions about future investment strategies [4] - The Hong Kong tech sector has seen significant gains; the potential for further investment is under consideration [4] - The market size has surpassed 5.3 trillion, indicating explosive growth in A-share index funds [4] - Global stock markets have experienced a downturn, prompting discussions on appropriate responses [4] - The underlying logic for the recent rise in the dividend index is explored, along with its sustainability [4] - A decrease in deposit rates may benefit certain investment categories [4] - Index rebalancing could have implications for investment strategies [4] - The banking index has risen, leading to considerations about profit-taking [4] - Current bull market trends are compared to historical patterns [4] - Characteristics of the A-share and Hong Kong bull markets are analyzed, along with future growth prospects [4] - The consumer sector is facing challenges; reasons for this downturn and potential recovery are discussed [4] - Certain investment categories have reached overvaluation this year [4] - The resurgence of tariff crises may impact investment strategies [4] - After short-term volatility, the outlook for A-share and Hong Kong markets remains optimistic [4] - The implications of potential U.S. interest rate cuts on investment strategies are examined [4] - Third-quarter earnings reports indicate trends in corporate profit growth [4] - Strategies for navigating global market fluctuations are outlined [4] - The characteristics of the A-share bull market are reiterated, questioning its current status [4] - Future expectations for five-star ratings in investments are discussed [4] - The potential for the market to reach 4000 points is analyzed [4] Investment Strategies - Investment value assessments for broad-based indices such as the STAR Market and ChiNext are provided [5] - The investment value of the CSI A50 index is evaluated [5] - The investment potential of the CSI 300 index is discussed [5] - Various strategy indices, including leader, dividend, value, low volatility, growth, and quality, are analyzed for investment value [5] - The quality strategy index's investment value is assessed [5] - The investment value of free cash flow indices is explored [5] - Guidelines for investing in value series indices are provided [5] - The investment value of the CSI Value Index is examined [5] - The investment potential of the CSI All-Share Free Cash Flow Index is discussed [5] - Investment guidelines for Hong Kong index funds are presented [5] - The investment value of the Hong Kong tech index is analyzed, revealing characteristics of its four cycles of rise and fall [5] - Recommendations for personal pension accounts and retirement index funds are provided [5] - Investment guidelines for pharmaceutical and consumer index funds are discussed [5] - The performance and appeal of "Fixed Income +" products are evaluated [5] - The reasons behind the popularity of "Fixed Income +" as a stable investment choice are explored [5] - Practical methods for investing in bond funds are outlined [5] - The yield-risk characteristics of "Fixed Income +" products are analyzed, identifying suitable investor profiles [5] - The strategic advantages of "Fixed Income +" are highlighted, emphasizing the importance of stock-bond allocation and rebalancing [5] - Introduction of "Fixed Income +" indices is discussed, focusing on the "constant proportion" strategy [5] - The investment value of gold is assessed, considering current market conditions [5] - Guidelines for operating government bond reverse repos are provided, ensuring yield management during holidays [5] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices and their valuation are analyzed [5]