聚烯烃：短期或反弹，但趋势仍有压力 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年6月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 聚丙烯供需 02 聚乙烯供需 03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 LLDPE观点：短期震荡为主 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 5 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 PP：短期或反弹 但趋势仍有压力 ◆ 首先、贸易战因素变换频繁，正因如此当下市场当方面持续下跌在宏观端概率不大，反而在谈判临近尾 声需要警惕。在供应端，6月检修仍偏高，但目前检修量不足以改变供需格局，新增产能大大抵消了供应 端的努力。成本端仍有压力因此短期市场或以震荡市为主，但趋势仍有压力； Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 ◆ ...

Group 1 - The North Exchange will officially launch the North Specialized and Innovative Index on June 30, 2025, which will provide multi-dimensional investment targets and performance benchmarks [1][9] - The index will consist of the 50 largest "little giant" companies listed on the North Exchange, reflecting the overall performance of specialized and innovative companies [1][9] - As of June 6, 2025, there are 146 national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" companies listed on the North Exchange, accounting for 54.89% of the total [1][14][17] Group 2 - In 2024, the average revenue of national-level specialized and innovative companies on the North Exchange was 613 million yuan, while non-national-level companies had an average revenue of 768 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -6.88% and +2.40% respectively [1][15] - The average net profit attributable to shareholders for national-level specialized and innovative companies was 47.83 million yuan, compared to 35.16 million yuan for non-national-level companies, with year-on-year changes of -20.72% and -24.34% respectively [1][15] - The gross profit margin for national-level specialized and innovative companies was 25.11%, while for non-national-level companies it was 21.83% [21][24] Group 3 - The North Exchange's A-shares had an average daily trading volume of 24.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.38% from the previous week, with a turnover rate of 6.18% [2][30] - The North 50 Index closed at 1427.06 points, with a week-on-week increase of 1.30% and a PE ratio of 74.42X [2][31][35] - The overall PE ratio for North Exchange A-shares increased to 50.21X, with 144 companies having a PE ratio exceeding 45X, accounting for 54.55% [2][33][38] Group 4 - The five major industries on the North Exchange, including high-end equipment, information technology, new chemical materials, consumer services, and biomedicine, have TTM PE ratios of 40.68X, 101.69X, 42.50X, 56.05X, and 51.53X respectively [2][37][39] - The North Exchange focuses on serving innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, particularly in advanced manufacturing and modern service industries, to promote high-quality economic development [1][14]

消费行业围绕微笑曲线的两端布局，左端关注软饮料为代表的大众品消费， 右端关注走出二次成长曲线的新消费。按照经济周期的历史脉络，A 股行情 先后启动顺序为红利低估（2024 年银行股为代表）、科技成长（2025 年初 的机器人和大模型）、内需消费（当前的大众品+新消费），目前处在第二 到三阶段的切换。港股市场"悦己"属性的新消费标的，在年初以来持续上 涨并形成阶段主线，热点题材则是围绕技术弯道超车，以及寻找阶段性成长 主题两条脉络，先后挖掘 DeepSeek→航天军工→创新药投资机会。 后续关注在海外不确定性和复杂多变贸易环境下兼具科技和安全性的板块。 结合出口外贸体量和比例的不可替代性，以及技术/资源/流程等不可替代性 来看，化学原料药、生物医药、塑料加工机械、面板、钛白粉、服务机 器人、碳纤维、电子化学品的行业壁垒最强，两方面不可替代程度较上 一轮贸易摩擦期间均上涨超过 20%的的行业有兵器兵装、高空作业车、 石油开采、炼焦煤等。此外，建议关注科技导向下并购重组主题的投资 机会。前五个月共计近 2500 项上市公司公告披露了并购重组进展，且 呈现逐月上行趋势，机械设备、电子、医药生物等新兴产业的并购重组 项 ...

Core Insights - The pollution caused by discarded plastics and the sustainable development of the plastic industry have become global environmental and technological issues of significant concern [1][2][3] Group 1: Event Overview - A high-level academic salon on "Green and Sustainable Development of Plastics" was held on June 7 in Beijing, attended by experts from research institutions, universities, and related enterprises [1] - Keynote speeches were delivered by prominent academicians, focusing on the prevention of plastic pollution and the sustainable development of the plastic industry [1][2] Group 2: Research and Innovations - Wang Qi, a professor from Sichuan University, presented research on the efficient recycling of mixed and cross-linked waste plastics using environmentally friendly methods [1] - Tang Yong emphasized the need for a sustainable development concept that integrates the retirement and creation of plastics, sharing preliminary results of his explorations [1][2] - Chen Xuesi highlighted the significance of biodegradable polymers like polylactic acid in replacing traditional petrochemical plastics and discussed their industrialization [2] Group 3: Future Directions and Recommendations - Experts proposed several strategies for achieving green and sustainable development in the plastic industry, including reducing the use of single-use plastics, developing new degradable materials, and increasing the use of bio-based plastics [3] - There is a call for increased support for the research and development of new biodegradable plastics that can decompose into carbon dioxide and water, thereby minimizing environmental harm from non-recyclable single-use plastics [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the urgent need for sustainable development in the plastic industry, focusing on recycling, biodegradable plastics, and reducing plastic waste [1][2][3] - China's plastic production has increased nearly 400,000 times since the establishment of the new China, making it the world's largest producer and consumer of plastics, but this rapid growth has led to significant plastic waste issues [1] - In 2023, China generated 62 million tons of plastic waste, with a recycling rate of approximately 30%, which is significantly higher than the global average of 9% [2] Group 2 - Experts suggest that to mitigate the environmental impact of plastic waste, it is essential to reduce the use of single-use plastics and develop new biodegradable materials that can decompose in specific environments [3] - There is a call for the development of bio-based plastics to decrease reliance on fossil resources and increase the use of renewable resources in the plastic industry [3] - The articles highlight the importance of advancing environmentally friendly recycling technologies and chemical recycling methods to safely manage plastic waste [2][3]

摘要：【图】2025年1-3月山西省初级形态的塑料产量统计分析 2025年1-3月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前3个月，山西省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量累计达到了 26.3万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，增长了4.9%，增速较2024年同期高6.7个百分点，增速较同期全 国低4.7个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量3441.04885万吨的比重为0.8%。 图表：山西省初级形态的塑料产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年3月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 单独看2025年3月份，山西省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量达到了8.9万吨，与2024年同期的数 据相比，3月份的产量增长了0.7%，增速较2024年同期低7.0个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国低 9.5个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量1225.91792万吨的比重为0.7%。 图表：山西省初级形态的塑料产量分月（当月值）统计 注：初级形态的塑料2004年及以前名称为塑料树脂及共聚物，简称塑料。 从2011年起，我国规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营 ...

公司公告汇总 中研股份发布2024年年度权益分派实施公告，每股派发现金红利0.20元（含税），共计派发现金红利 24336000.00元。股权登记日为2025年6月11日，除权（息）日和现金红利发放日均为2025年6月12日。 分派对象为截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后在中国结算上海分公司登记在册的本公司全体股 东。本次权益分派的现金红利委托中国结算上海分公司通过其资金清算系统向股权登记日上海证券交易 所收市后登记在册并在上海证券交易所各会员办理了指定交易的股东派发。已办理指定交易的投资者可 于红利发放日在其指定的证券营业部领取现金红利，未办理指定交易的股东红利暂由中国结算上海分公 司保管，待办理指定交易后再进行派发。对于不同类型的股东，扣税方式有所不同，具体如下：持有无 限售条件流通股的自然人股东和证券投资基金，持股期限超过1年的，每股实际派发现金红利人民币 0.20元；持股期限在1年以内（含1年）的，每股实际派发现金红利人民币0.20元，待其转让股票时再计 算应纳税额。持有有限售条件流通股的自然人股东和证券投资基金，解禁后取得的股息红利按照上述规 定计算纳税，解禁前取得的股息红利实际税负为10%，税 ...

Group 1: Business Overview - The company operates in four major business segments: polyester materials, new energy materials, synthetic biological materials, and plastic additives [2][3]. - Polyester materials include biodegradable products and special polyesters (PETG/PCTG), with significant sales growth expected [2][3]. - The engineering plastic additives segment is projected to achieve revenue of over 1 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 200% [4]. Group 2: Engineering Plastic Additives - The rapid growth of the engineering plastic additives business is attributed to high demand in industries such as automotive, electronics, and communications [4]. - The company has a production capacity of 20,000 tons and plans to expand to 60,000 tons to meet increasing market demand [4]. Group 3: New Energy Materials - The new energy materials segment includes black phosphorus and battery binder materials, with plans for a ton-level pilot production line expected to be operational in Q3 2025 [3][6]. - Black phosphorus has a theoretical capacity seven times that of graphite, making it a promising material for battery applications [7]. Group 4: Challenges and Innovations - The company faces challenges in the low-cost industrialization of black phosphorus due to the need for high-temperature and high-pressure conditions [6]. - The company has developed proprietary technologies that enhance the efficiency and yield of black phosphorus production, positioning it for successful industrialization [6]. Group 5: Market Applications - Black phosphorus can be used in various applications, including high-performance battery anodes and specialized flame retardants [7][8]. - The company is actively pursuing collaborations with downstream applications in new energy and other sectors [8]. Group 6: Risk Considerations - There are potential risks associated with the progress of new business areas, and investors are advised to review the company's periodic reports for detailed risk factors [8].

Group 1: Company Overview - The company, Hefei Hengxin Life Technology Co., Ltd., has a sales revenue from the U.S. market accounting for approximately 10% of its total sales revenue [1] - The company has established a factory in Thailand to primarily serve the U.S. market orders [1][2] - The company is one of the early domestic players in the R&D, production, and sales of PLA biodegradable dining utensils, with rich technical reserves and production experience [2][3] Group 2: Production and Capacity - The Thailand factory entered normal production in April 2025 and is currently in a rapid capacity ramp-up phase [2] - The fixed cost allocation and efficiency fluctuations during the short-term capacity ramp-up may impact the gross profit margin [2] - The company plans to fully promote the production operations of the Thailand production base throughout 2025 [2] Group 3: Market Position and Competition - The company possesses competitive advantages due to its full-process production capability, a combination of paper and plastic products, a rich variety of products, and strong customer resources [2][3] - The market is expected to mature gradually, leading to an increase in industry concentration, although the overall market size is also expected to grow [3] Group 4: Customer Structure and Procurement - The company's end customers are primarily in the sectors of freshly ground coffee, new-style tea drinks, fast food, and supermarkets [3] - Initially, the Thailand factory will rely mainly on domestic procurement, transitioning to local or international procurement in the future [3]

Group 1 - Leisai Intelligent adjusted the share repurchase price limit from 25.00 yuan/share to 52.00 yuan/share [1] - Fulin Precision's subsidiary Jiangxi Shenghua signed a supplementary agreement with CATL, involving a 500 million yuan advance payment for production capacity [1] - Shenzhou Cell plans to issue up to 25 million A-shares to its controlling shareholder to raise no more than 900 million yuan for working capital [2] Group 2 - BOE Technology received a commitment for an 1.8 billion yuan stock repurchase loan from China Construction Bank [2] - Chengjian Development plans to publicly transfer 9.24% equity in Beijing Science and Technology Park Construction Group at a minimum price of 282 million yuan [2][3] - *ST Lingda's chairman and president Wang Mingsheng resigned, with Jin Yongfeng elected as the new chairman [4] Group 3 - Jiangsu Boyun's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares [6] - Yuhua Tian's shareholders plan to reduce holdings by up to 6% of the company's shares [8] - Anpei Long's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares [10] Group 4 - Dayu Water-saving plans to participate in the auction for 70% equity of Huai'an Design Institute [15] - InSai Group intends to purchase 80% equity of Zhizhe Brand for 642 million yuan [16] - Jinj Chicken's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 2.99% of the company's shares [18] Group 5 - Chao Hongji's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares [19] - Chuangye Huikang's shareholder intends to transfer 40 million shares to repay stock pledge financing [20] - Zhuangzi Island's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1% of the company's shares [21] Group 6 - *ST Renle received a decision from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to terminate its stock listing [22] - SMIC's wholly-owned subsidiary plans to sell 14.832% equity of a subsidiary to Hunan Guoke Microelectronics [24]