Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth in the production of primary plastic forms in Tianjin, with a notable increase in both monthly and cumulative production figures for 2025 [1][3]. Group 2 - In June 2025, the production of primary plastic forms reached 386,000 tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.1%, which is 19.3 percentage points higher than the previous year [1]. - The growth rate in June 2025 was 12.0 percentage points higher than the national average, with Tianjin accounting for 3.2% of the national production of 12,032,089.9 tons [1]. Group 3 - For the first half of 2025 (January to June), the total production of primary plastic forms in Tianjin was 2,307,000 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, which is 26.0 percentage points higher than the previous year [3]. - The growth rate for the first half of 2025 was 13.4 percentage points above the national average, with Tianjin's production representing 3.3% of the national total of 70,123,475.3 tons [3].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 研究员: | 林静宜 | 期货从业资格号F03139610 | 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 助理研究员: | 徐天泽 | 期货从业资格号F03133092 | | 塑料产业日报 2025-10-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7077 | -76 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7077 | -76 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7106 | -86 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7158 | -62 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 264961 | 107880 持仓量(日,手) | 546305 | 20384 | | | 1-5价差 | -29 | 10 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 430131 | 8535 | ...

Group 1 - The plastic sector increased by 1.21% on October 9, with Yokogawa Precision leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3933.97, up 1.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13725.56, up 1.47% [1] - Notable stock performances in the plastic sector included Yokogawa Precision with a closing price of 52.78, up 13.07%, and Stik with a closing price of 28.75, up 9.90% [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds into the plastic sector was 214 million yuan, while speculative funds saw a net inflow of 363 million yuan [3] - Retail investors experienced a net outflow of 577 million yuan from the plastic sector [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The reality and expectations of polyolefins are deviated, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The PE main contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7200 - 7500, the PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, focusing on 6900 - 7200, and the LP spread is expected to widen [8][9] - There are still supply - demand contradictions in plastics, and it is expected to run in a fluctuating manner [10] - PP faces significant trend pressure and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [48] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - On September 30, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7153 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.84%. The average price of LDPE was 9596.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%. The average price of HDPE was 7912.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The LLDPE South China basis was 397 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.52%. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 39 yuan/ton (- 47), with the basis widening and the month spread narrowing [12] 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on September 30, 2025, was - 39 yuan/ton (- 47); the 5 - 9 month spread was - 28 yuan/ton (- 70); the 9 - 1 month spread was 67 yuan/ton (+ 117) [18] - **Spot Price**: The prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, in North China, the price of low - melt injection molding decreased by 13 yuan/ton, and the price of wire drawing decreased by 2 yuan/ton [20] - **Cost**: In September, WTI crude oil closed at 62.43 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.58 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. Brent crude oil closed at 66.16 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.31 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+ 0) [23] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton from the previous month. The profit of coal - based PE was 521 yuan/ton, a decrease of 415 yuan/ton from the previous month [27] - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of polyethylene in China at the end of this month was 81.84%, an increase of 3.16 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 64.26 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.84%. The weekly maintenance loss was 11.37 tons, a decrease of 1.15 tons from the previous week [31] - **2025 Production Plan**: A total of 613 tons of new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already put into operation and some planned to be put into operation in the future [34] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' plastic production lines are under maintenance, such as Yanshan Petrochemical's HDPE and LDPE production lines, which have been shut down since May 2025 [36] - **Demand**: The overall start - up rate of domestic agricultural film this week was 32.86%, an increase of 15.40% from the end of the previous month. The start - up rate of PE packaging film was 52.37%, an increase of 2.81% from the end of the previous month. The start - up rate of PE pipes was 32.17%, an increase of 2.00% from the end of the previous month [38] - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 38.5%, with a difference of 3.1% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 9%, with a difference of 2.3% from the annual average level [41] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises this week was 53.48 tons, a decrease of 2.72 tons from the end of the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 4.84% [43] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 30, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,736 lots, an increase of 4,669 lots from the end of the previous month [45] 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - On September 30, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6852 yuan/ton, a decrease of 122 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75% [49] 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various PP products and related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of PP powder decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [52] - **Basis**: On September 30, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6920 yuan/ton (- 3.98%). The PP basis was 68 yuan/ton (- 165), with the basis narrowing. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 40 yuan/ton (- 19), with the month spread narrowing [54] - **Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on September 30, 2025, was - 40 yuan/ton (- 19); the 5 - 9 month spread was 12 yuan/ton (- 101); the 9 - 1 month spread was 28 yuan/ton (+ 120) [58] - **Cost**: In September, WTI crude oil closed at 62.43 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.58 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. Brent crude oil closed at 66.16 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.31 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+ 0) [61] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 493.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166.16 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month. The profit of coal - based PP was 338.40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 181.34 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [65] - **Supply**: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 75.52%, a decrease of 4.48 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 77.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 6.48 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.61% [70] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises are under maintenance, such as Qilu Petrochemical's single - line production line, which has been shut down since January 2025 [73] - **Demand**: The average start - up rate of downstream industries this week was 51.85% (+ 0.40). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 43.90% (+ 0.30), the start - up rate of BOPP was 61.38% (- 0.04%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 58.34% (+ 0.11%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 36.87% (+ 0.14%) [75] - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit of polypropylene this week was - 546.82 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 66.76 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was - 7.23 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.54 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week [80] - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of polypropylene this week was 52.03 tons (- 5.50%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 1.21% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 0.58% month - on - month; the port inventory increased by 7.61% month - on - month [85] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On September 30, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,098 lots, an increase of 1,173 lots from the end of the previous month [91]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various industries including macro finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals and new materials, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches based on industry fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and market trends [3][16][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The US federal government "shut down" on October 1st due to a lack of funds, which impacts economic data release and brings uncertainty to global financial markets. The deadlock is centered on disagreements over healthcare subsidies. As of October 6th, the "shut down" continued [7]. - From October 1st to 6th, the average daily passenger volume in China increased by 5.18% year - on - year. The average full - fare of civil aviation decreased by 2.58% year - on - year, and the average bare - fare decreased by 0.03% year - on - year [8]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points [8]. - On October 9th, the central bank will conduct a 110 billion yuan 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation. In October, 80 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchases will mature [9]. - The US will impose tariffs on imported softwood logs, lumber, cabinets, bathroom cabinets, upholstered wood products, and medium and heavy - duty trucks starting from October 14th and November 1st respectively [9]. - Fed officials showed a willingness to further cut interest rates in September but were cautious due to inflation concerns [14]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Consider buying on dips and mainly adopt a shock - trading strategy. The A - share market was active before the holiday, and during the holiday, overseas related indexes showed small increases. Overall, the market may be in a shock state [16][17]. Treasury Bond Futures - Consider buying short - term bonds on dips and focus on the steepening strategy. The domestic bond market news was stable during the holiday. The market's expectations for aggregate policies may fluctuate, and further central bank easing may be needed [18][19]. Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The black market is expected to maintain a medium - term shock trend. Policy expectations are neutral, downstream demand improvement is limited, and inventory and cost factors also affect the market [19][20]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand of finished products during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [21]. Ferroalloys - After the holiday, focus on the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in September. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in an oversupply state, and a high - selling short - bias strategy is recommended in the long - term [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, adopt a high - selling short - bias strategy; for glass, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. The market of soda ash lacks driving factors, and glass needs to pay attention to demand improvement and cost changes [23]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - After the holiday, Shanghai aluminum may follow the rise of LME aluminum, but the increase may be limited. Alumina is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [25]. Lithium Carbonate - Supported by strong short - term reality, lithium carbonate will mainly operate in a shock state. Pay attention to the demand rhythm after the holiday [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will operate in a range, and short - term long - positions can be considered at the lower end of the range. Polysilicon will continue to operate in a shock state, and attention should be paid to policy and demand changes [27][29]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Adopt a short - selling on rallies strategy. The international cotton market was affected by the US government shutdown and supply pressure during the holiday, and the domestic cotton market is expected to be under supply pressure after the holiday [31][33]. Sugar - Domestically, the sugar market is fundamentally bearish, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium - term. In the short - term, pay attention to the impact of typhoon weather on production [34][35]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs dropped significantly during the holiday. It is recommended to adopt a short - bias strategy for near - month contracts and pay attention to the spread trading of short - near and long - far contracts [36]. Apples - Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to the impact of rainfall on apple quality during the National Day holiday and the price differences in different regions [38]. Corn - Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and consider selling out - of - the - money call options for the 01 contract. The supply of new corn is increasing, and the price is under pressure [39]. Red Dates - Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to the impact of weather on the quality and output of new dates and the progress of orchard contracting [41]. Pigs - Adopt a short - selling on rallies strategy for near - month contracts. The market is in a state of strong supply and weak demand after the double festivals [42][43]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The price of crude oil is expected to decline due to increased supply and decreased demand. It is recommended to hold existing short - positions [44]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil will follow the trend of crude oil, with a supply - abundant and demand - weak pattern [44]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply pressure, and the market will return to fundamental logic in the short - term [47]. Rubber - The domestic rubber market may continue to fluctuate weakly, affected by macro factors, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to raw material supply and inventory changes [48]. Methanol - The port inventory of methanol is large, but the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. A weak - shock strategy is recommended, and pay attention to port de - stocking [49]. Caustic Soda - The futures price of caustic soda is expected to be under pressure before the improvement of fundamentals [49]. Asphalt - Asphalt will follow the trend of crude oil, and pay attention to the de - stocking speed in October [50][51]. Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester products are expected to be weak due to cost decline. Pay attention to device maintenance and terminal orders [52]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG supply is abundant, and a long - term bearish strategy is recommended. The CP price may be affected by peak - season stocking in the short - term [53]. Offset Printing Paper - The market of offset printing paper is expected to operate in a shock state. A light - long or put - selling strategy can be considered near the production cost [54]. Pulp - The pulp market has some support. A long - position strategy can be considered on dips if the spot price stabilizes [55]. Urea - The price of urea is expected to be weak due to increased supply, postponed demand, and decreased cost [56]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly, and pay attention to downstream procurement after the holiday [57].

Core Insights - The plastic production in Jiangsu Province for June 2025 reached 1.084 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.4%, which is a significant slowdown of 16.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the total plastic production in Jiangsu Province was 6.38 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, but this growth rate is 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous year [3] Production Data Analysis - In June 2025, Jiangsu's plastic production accounted for 9.0% of the national total of 12.032 billion tons, indicating a lower growth rate compared to the national average by 11.7 percentage points [1] - The cumulative plastic production from January to June 2025 represented 9.1% of the national total of 70.123 billion tons, with a growth rate lagging behind the national average by 3.6 percentage points [3] Historical Context - The term "primary plastic" was previously referred to as "plastic resin and copolymers" before 2004, indicating a shift in terminology within the industry [4] - Since 2011, the threshold for large-scale industrial enterprises in China has been raised from an annual main business income of 5 million yuan to 20 million yuan, reflecting changes in industry standards [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expresses strong opposition to Mexico's recent anti-dumping investigations against Chinese products, emphasizing the need to adhere to WTO rules and protect the rights of Chinese enterprises [1][3]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Investigations - Mexico has initiated four anti-dumping investigations against Chinese products including float glass, self-adhesive tape, PVC coated cloth, and steel bolts, following requests from domestic companies [1][3]. - This year, Mexico has launched a total of 11 anti-dumping investigations against Chinese products, nearly double the total from the previous year [1][3]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Responses - The Chinese side has been cautious and restrained in initiating trade remedy investigations, contrasting with the increasing number of investigations from Mexico [1][3]. - In response to Mexico's proposed increase in import tariffs and other trade restrictions, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has initiated an investigation into trade and investment barriers [1][3]. - The Chinese government will take necessary measures across trade and investment sectors based on the investigation results to protect the legitimate rights of enterprises [1][3].

Group 1 - Double-Helix Pharmaceutical announced that its associate, Changfeng Pharmaceutical, is expected to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 8, 2025, with a global offering of 41.198 million shares priced at HKD 14.75 each. Double-Helix holds approximately 3.68% of Changfeng's shares, with a lock-up period of 12 months post-listing [1] - Changfeng Pharmaceutical is involved in the pharmaceutical industry, specifically in the research and development of gene-engineered drugs [2] Group 2 - Lio Corporation has submitted an application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for issuing H-shares and listing on the main board [3] - Lio Corporation operates in the mechanical manufacturing and digital marketing sectors [3] Group 3 - Changjiang Securities received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to issue corporate bonds totaling no more than CNY 20 billion, valid for 24 months [4] - Changjiang Securities provides services such as securities and futures brokerage, financial product distribution, investment advisory, asset custody, and margin financing [4] Group 4 - Jingye Intelligent plans to acquire 51% of Hefei Shengwen Information Technology for CNY 108 million, focusing on engineering information technology and intelligent products [5][6] - Jingye Intelligent specializes in the research, development, production, and sales of special robots and intelligent equipment systems [6] Group 5 - Aimeike's subsidiary received approval for the registration of Minoxidil topical solution, a non-prescription drug for treating hair loss [7][8] - Aimeike is engaged in the research, development, production, and sales of biomedical materials and biopharmaceuticals [8] Group 6 - Dalian Heavy Industry expects a net profit of CNY 474 million to CNY 508 million for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.91% to 28.52% [9] - Dalian Heavy Industry specializes in the design, manufacturing, assembly, and installation of major technical equipment [9] Group 7 - Huayou Cobalt signed supply agreements with LGES for a total of approximately 76,000 tons of ternary precursor products from 2026 to 2030 [10][11] - Huayou Cobalt focuses on the research, manufacturing, and sales of new energy lithium battery materials and cobalt new materials [11] Group 8 - Zhenjiang Co. plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 5.529 million shares, not exceeding 3% of the total share capital, due to personal funding needs [12] - Zhenjiang Co. is involved in the design, processing, and sales of wind power equipment and components [12] Group 9 - Watson Bio's subsidiary received a drug registration certificate for a 13-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine for children [14][15] - Watson Bio specializes in the research, development, production, and sales of human vaccines and biopharmaceuticals [15] Group 10 - Yikang Pharmaceutical's major shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 42 million shares, not exceeding 2.04% of the total share capital, due to personal funding needs [16] - Yikang Pharmaceutical is engaged in the production and sales of excipients, raw materials, finished drugs, and new energy materials [16] Group 11 - Sichuan Gold's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 7.56 million shares, accounting for 1.80% of the total share capital [19] - Sichuan Gold focuses on the construction, mining, and sales of gold mines [19] Group 12 - Kangchen Pharmaceutical received approval for a clinical trial of an innovative drug for treating advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma [20][21] - Kangchen Pharmaceutical specializes in the manufacturing of chemical drug formulations [21] Group 13 - UCloud plans to repurchase shares worth between CNY 8 million and CNY 10 million for employee stock ownership plans [22] - UCloud provides cloud computing services centered on IT infrastructure [22] Group 14 - Woton Technology announced an adjustment to its share repurchase plan, raising the price cap to CNY 60 per share [24] - Woton Technology specializes in the research, manufacturing, and sales of separation membrane products [24] Group 15 - Five Continents Medical announced plans for shareholders to reduce holdings by up to 126,530 shares, accounting for 1.8606% of the total share capital [26] - Five Continents Medical focuses on the research, manufacturing, and sales of disposable sterile infusion medical devices [26] Group 16 - CIMC Group plans to repurchase A-shares with a total amount not exceeding CNY 5 billion [27] - CIMC Group specializes in logistics and energy equipment solutions [27] Group 17 - Zhifei Biological's subsidiary received a drug registration certificate for a trivalent influenza vaccine suitable for individuals aged 3 and above [29][30] - Zhifei Biological is involved in the research, development, production, and sales of vaccines and biological products [30]

Group 1 - The plastic sector increased by 0.56% on September 30, with Shengquan Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51, up 0.35% [1] - Shengquan Group's stock price rose by 5.74% to 33.89, with a trading volume of 380,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.278 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the plastic sector was 274 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 200 million yuan [3] - Speculative funds had a net inflow of 73.87 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of a 51% stake in North China Plastics by Conch (Anhui) Energy-saving and Environmental Protection New Materials Co., Ltd. is a strategic move to diversify its business and address growth challenges in the PVC industry [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition Details - Conch New Materials plans to acquire North China Plastics for 95.27 million yuan, making it a subsidiary and consolidating it into the company's financial statements [1] - The acquisition reflects the company's strategy to transition from traditional PVC products to high-value polymer materials, addressing the current industry bottleneck [1][2] Group 2: Industry Context - The PVC industry is experiencing a bottleneck, with domestic inventory at 1.3005 million tons, a 1.11% increase month-on-month, and social inventory at 953,700 tons, a 2.03% increase [1] - Conch New Materials reported a revenue of 2.401 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a 9.70% year-on-year decline, and a net loss of 28.9982 million yuan [1] Group 3: Strategic Benefits - North China Plastics specializes in high polymer low-noise rollers and modified ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene products, which complement Conch's downstream market [1] - The combination of North China Plastics' R&D capabilities and Conch's production technology can help overcome barriers to high-end products and reduce reliance on traditional PVC [2] - The acquisition is expected to create new profit growth points for Conch New Materials and alleviate losses in its main business [2] Group 4: Valuation Insights - As of July 31, 2025, the total equity value of North China Plastics was assessed at 187 million yuan, with an appraisal increment of 48.2577 million yuan, resulting in a 34.83% increase [2] - The valuation includes 5 authorized invention patents and 31 utility model patents, with a technology-related intangible asset appraisal increment of 16 million yuan [2]