Group 1 - Shell is exploring the possibility of acquiring BP, which could create a European oil giant capable of challenging ExxonMobil and Chevron [1] - The combined company would have a daily oil and gas production of nearly 5 million barrels of oil equivalent, an 85% increase from Shell's current production of approximately 2.7 million barrels [1] - This merger would position the new entity as the largest oil and gas producer globally, surpassing ExxonMobil's 4.6 million barrels and Chevron's 3.4 million barrels per day [1] Group 2 - Shell is already the world's largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) seller, and acquiring BP would elevate its annual LNG sales to over 90 million tons, accounting for more than 20% of the global market [2] - The acquisition of BP's Denver-based shale oil business (BPX) would rectify Shell's previous strategic error of selling its Permian Basin assets to ConocoPhillips in 2021 [2] - Both companies are major commodity traders, and their merger could enhance their trading operations, although it remains uncertain if this would improve capital return rates [2][4] Group 3 - BP's leverage ratio was 48% as of the end of Q1, making it the most indebted among oil giants, compounded by ongoing liabilities from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill [3] - Shell would need to pay a premium to address BP's over-leveraged balance sheet, which RBC describes as a potential "poison pill" for Shell, known for its conservative financial management [4] Group 4 - Regulatory challenges may arise from the merger, as it would expand Shell's fuel retail network by approximately 48%, adding over 21,000 sites and raising competition concerns in certain markets [4] - RBC estimates that divesting BP's entire marketing and retail division could yield $30 billion to $40 billion, which Shell might consider to mitigate regulatory issues [4] Group 5 - Analysts from Bank of America suggest that Shell might find it wiser to repurchase its own shares rather than acquire BP, citing historical data showing that past acquisitions have not significantly enhanced per-share cash flow [5][6] - Shell has been actively repurchasing shares, totaling $42 billion, which represents over 20% of its current market value, despite a 15% decline in stock price over the past year [6] Group 6 - Shell's CFO has indicated that the current low oil prices make stock buybacks a more attractive capital allocation strategy [6] - The CEO has emphasized that value investment now lies in repurchasing more Shell shares, highlighting the need for over $3 billion in annual synergies to avoid cash flow dilution post-acquisition [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, oil prices rebounded slightly. With the conclusion of the UK-US trade agreement, the pessimistic expectations caused by previous tariffs have eased, but the Sino-US tariff negotiations are still unclear. Geopolitically, the fourth round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US began in Oman. Fundamentally, global oil products are seasonally accumulating inventory, US commercial crude oil inventories are lower than in previous years, and the number of US shale oil drilling rigs has declined rapidly after the oil price drop. Recently, the BW spread has narrowed. Global refinery profits are recovering, but actual refineries are still in the maintenance period. US refinery operating rates have recovered first, and the inventory of US gasoline and diesel is still low. Coupled with the elimination of refining capacity limiting supply, there is support for gasoline and diesel cracking. It is expected to maintain a pattern of strong gasoline and weak diesel in the near future. Domestic refinery operating rates have slightly declined, gasoline and diesel inventories have significantly decreased, and refinery profits have improved. In the short term, the rebound in refinery profits, the expected increase in refinery operating rates, the marginal improvement of macro sentiment, and the decline in US production leading indicators support prices. Attention should be paid to whether the US-Iran negotiations achieve unexpected progress. In the medium and long term, crude oil remains in a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and supply-demand surplus [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From April 30 to May 9, 2025, WTI crude oil prices increased from $58.21 to $61.02, an increase of $1.11; Brent crude oil prices increased from $61.06 to $63.91, an increase of $1.07; Dubai crude oil prices increased from $67.74 to $63.83, an increase of $0.83. Other related oil product prices also showed corresponding changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - **US-Russia Gas Negotiations**: Washington and Moscow officials are discussing US assistance in resuming Russian gas sales to Europe. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Europe significantly reduced Russian gas imports, causing Gazprom to lose $7 billion in the following year. Trump's push for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict increases the possibility of a thaw in gas relations [4]. - **ConocoPhillips Cuts Spending**: ConocoPhillips cut its spending forecast by 3.5% to $12.45 billion (calculated at the midpoint of its guidance range) while keeping its production forecast unchanged after crude oil prices fell below $60 per barrel. WTI crude oil has fallen about 18% this year and is still below $60. US oil company executives said they need an average oil price of $65 to make a profit [4]. - **Citi Lowers Brent Forecast**: Citi Research lowered its three - month forecast for Brent crude oil from $60 to $55 per barrel due to the restart of US-Iran nuclear negotiations. If an agreement is reached, the market supply will increase, and Brent prices may fall to $50. If no agreement is reached, prices may rise to $70 or higher. Citi believes the probability of a final agreement is 60% [5]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - **US EIA Data (Week Ended May 2)**: US crude oil exports decreased by 115,000 barrels per day to 4.006 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 98,000 barrels to 13.367 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, a decrease of 0.46%; the four - week average supply of US oil products was 19.756 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.55% compared to the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 580,000 barrels to 399.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.15%; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.056 million barrels per day, an increase of 558,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week; EIA gasoline inventory was 188,000 barrels (expected - 1.6 million barrels, previous value - 4.003 million barrels); EIA refined oil inventory was - 1.107 million barrels (expected - 1.271 million barrels, previous value 937,000 barrels) [5][6]. - **China's Oil Market**: This week, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries decreased. China's gasoline and diesel production both declined, including both major and local refineries. The sales - to - production ratios of local refineries for gasoline and diesel both declined and did not reach the production - sales balance. This week, the inventory of gasoline and diesel decreased by more than 4%, including major refineries, local refineries, and social inventories. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries rebounded month - on - month [6].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年05月12日 近期氧化铝检修压产产能不断上升,产蛋阶段性降低,行业库存转降,不过一旦利润修复产能依然 会大规模复产,且山东和河北新产能将逐渐有成品产出。成本端几内亚铝土矿成交价已从年初110美 元降至75美元，对应氧化铝平均成本降至2900元附近。本周氧化铝现货成交略有上升,短期盘面反 弹高度将受到过剩前景和成本坍塌限制,期货升水时考虑逢高偏空参与。 上周国际油价低位反弹,布伦特07合约上涨3.95%。继美英达成贸易协议后,周末中美高层绕贸会 谈在瑞士取得实质性进展及重要关识,双方同意建立中美经贸挫伤机制开展进一步磋商,贸易战风 脸的阶段性缓和带动油价向上修复,同时二季度以来全球石油累阵速度放缓。同时值得注意的是. 周日美伊核会谈同样进展积极,俄乌和谈亦在推进之中,全球地缘风险的绘和降低原油制裁及断供 风险,后续上涨空间取决于贸易战实质性缓和的进展。 【贵金属】 周五贵金属震荡,波动有限。上周美联储会议鲍威尔重申需等待更多经济数据指导决策,本周重点 关注美国CP1、PPI和零售数据。近期贸易谈判和地练纷争交织,印巴达成停火,关英达成 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-05-12原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2506： 1.基本面：美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔描述会谈取得"实质性进展"，并表示将于周一公布 细节；伊美谈判代表为解决伊朗核问题而举行的新一轮会谈于周日在阿曼结束，官员们表示，双方计 划举行进一步谈判；乌克兰总统泽连斯基周日呼吁俄罗斯确认从5月12日开始无条件停火，然后乌克 兰将准备好与俄罗斯举行直接会谈；中性 2.基差：5月9日，阿曼原油现货价为64.12美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为63.38美元/桶，基差 13.26元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至5月2日当周API原油库存减少449 ...

汇丰研究降三桶油目标价 首选中石油 金十数据5月12日讯，汇丰研究发表报告指，中国海洋石油(00883.HK)对于上游勘探和生产的敏感度最 高，预计今年每桶布伦特原油价格每下跌10美元，将会于今年令其盈利减少16%，而明年则减少25%， 但该行仍保持"买入"评级，港股目标价由21港元下调至19.4港元。在三桶油当中，该行仍然偏好中国石 油股份(00857.HK)，该行予"买入"评级，属行业首选，港股目标价由7.5港元下调至6.9港元。相较之 下，中国石油化工股份(00386.HK)下游炼油和石化生产业务面临产能过剩及各种宏观风险，而处境不利 局势。同时，虽然油价较低意味着原材料成本下降，但亦可能使其现有库存面临减值风险，对中石化尤 为不利；予"持有"评级，港股目标价由4.5港元降至4.2港元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Saudi Aramco's first-quarter sales reached 405.65 billion riyals, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [1] - The company's net profit for the first quarter was 97.54 billion riyals, which represents a year-on-year decline of 4.6% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Saudi Aramco's first-quarter sales significantly exceeded expectations, reaching 405.65 billion riyals, compared to analysts' forecast of 107.72 billion USD [1] - The company's net profit for the first quarter was reported at 97.54 billion riyals, which is substantially higher than the estimated 24.94 billion USD [1] - There was an increase in sales volumes for natural gas, refined products, and chemical products during the quarter, indicating strong operational performance [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report Supply-side OPEC+ maintains production limits, but the widening discount of Iraqi heavy oil and the contraction of US shale oil capital expenditure limit overall supply growth; on the demand side, apparent demand is under pressure due to factors such as narrowing refinery profits, weak refined oil consumption, and macro sentiment. The widening discount of SC indicates weaker domestic demand compared to the international market, while the strengthening of the spread of nearby contracts may suggest short-term relief of delivery pressure. In the short term, oil prices may remain in a low-range oscillation, with WTI and Brent fluctuating in the range of $58 - 61, and SC being weaker due to the RMB exchange rate and domestic demand. If the destocking during the US summer driving season falls short of expectations or there are no breakthroughs in geopolitical conflicts, it will be difficult for oil prices to find sustained upward momentum. In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to whether OPEC+ adjusts its production policy at the June meeting and the progress of China-US trade negotiations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Price**: On May 8, 2025, the SC crude oil price dropped slightly to 461.0 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 7.2 yuan (-1.54%) from the previous day, with an intraday fluctuation range of [458.9, 483.6], indicating weak market sentiment; the WTI and Brent prices remained stable at $57.95/barrel and $60.95/barrel respectively, lacking a clear short-term direction [1]. - **Spread Change**: The SC-Brent and SC-WTI spreads weakened by $1.09/barrel to $2.76 and $5.76/barrel respectively, reflecting an expansion of the discount of SC relative to international oil prices; the SC continuous - continuous 3 spread strengthened by 2.1 yuan to 14.5 yuan/barrel, indicating stronger support for nearby contracts [1]. 2. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: Iraq adjusted its June Asian crude oil pricing strategy, widening the discount on heavy crude oil to $2.70/barrel, suggesting weak demand from Asian refineries for heavy crude oil; Iran reaffirmed its support for the OPEC+ production cut agreement, while ConocoPhillips cut spending due to oil prices falling below $60/barrel, implying limited growth in shale oil production. In addition, the deepening of China-Russia energy cooperation may support supply stability in the long term [2]. - **Demand Side**: The unexpected increase in US gasoline inventories and a 22.67% month-on-month decrease in Chinese refineries' orders for gasoline and diesel in April indicated a cooling of terminal consumption; the uncertainty of China-US trade negotiations further suppressed risk appetite [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The increase in US commercial crude oil inventories and the unexpected rise in gasoline inventories may intensify short-term concerns about inventory accumulation; under the continuous production cuts by OPEC+, the inventory pressure of OECD member countries may be marginally relieved [2]. 3. Industry Chain Judgment - **Supply**: OPEC+ maintains production limits, but the widening discount of Iraqi heavy oil and the contraction of US shale oil capital expenditure limit overall supply growth [3]. - **Demand**: Apparent demand is under pressure due to factors such as narrowing refinery profits, weak refined oil consumption, and macro sentiment [3]. - **Spread**: The widening discount of SC indicates weaker domestic demand compared to the international market, while the strengthening of the spread of nearby contracts may suggest short-term relief of delivery pressure [3]. - **Price Trend**: In the short term, oil prices may remain in a low-range oscillation, with WTI and Brent fluctuating in the range of $58 - 61, and SC being weaker due to the RMB exchange rate and domestic demand [3]. 4. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The prices of various crude oil futures, spot prices, spreads, and other assets showed different degrees of change. For example, the SC crude oil futures price decreased, while the WTI and Brent prices remained stable; most spot prices decreased; some spreads changed significantly [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of fuel oil futures, spot prices, spreads, and inventories also showed different trends. For example, the FU futures price decreased slightly, while the LU futures price increased slightly; most spot prices decreased; some spreads changed [6]. 5. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On May 8, Iraq set the price of Basra medium crude oil sold to Asia in June at a premium of 45 cents per barrel over the Oman-Dubai average price, and the price of heavy crude oil at a discount of $2.70 per barrel; Iran reaffirmed its support for OPEC+ [7][8]. - **Demand**: Emirates Airlines suspended flights to Pakistan until May 10; in April, the transaction volume in the shipping market for gasoline and diesel from Chinese refineries decreased, with new orders down 22.67% month-on-month [9]. - **Inventory**: The unexpected increase in US gasoline inventories led to a decline in international crude oil futures prices [10]. - **Market Information**: ConocoPhillips cut spending due to oil prices falling below $60/barrel; China and Russia deepened energy cooperation; overnight oil prices dropped significantly; the prices of crude oil and marine fuel raw materials were weak, and the prices of marine fuel in the East China market decreased [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the CSI Hong Kong 300 upstream index, which has seen an increase of 8.15% over the past month but a decline of 2.93% over the last three months and a year-to-date decrease of 2.65% [2] - The CSI Hong Kong 300 upstream index is composed of securities selected from the CSI Hong Kong 300 index based on industry classification, reflecting the overall performance of various thematic securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2][3] - The top ten holdings of the CSI Hong Kong 300 upstream index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (29.31%), PetroChina Company Limited (12.47%), Zijin Mining Group (10.38%), China Shenhua Energy Company (10.05%), and Sinopec Limited (9.52%) [2] Group 2 - The market sectors represented in the CSI Hong Kong 300 upstream index are entirely from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the oil and gas sector accounting for 51.69%, coal at 18.07%, precious metals at 15.59%, industrial metals at 9.95%, and rare metals at 3.15% [3] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year, and can also be adjusted temporarily under special circumstances [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report "China Energy Outlook 2060 (2024 Edition)" provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of China's energy development, emphasizing the transition towards renewable energy and the optimization of energy consumption amidst economic recovery and structural changes in the industry [1][10]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - China's economic development is experiencing fluctuations but maintains a long-term positive trend, with an accelerated optimization of industrial structure and a steady improvement in energy consumption efficiency [20][24]. - The population has entered a phase of negative growth, but urbanization and aging are driving the electrification and intelligent transformation of energy consumption [30][31]. - Technological advancements are focused on renewable energy alternatives, electrification, and clean utilization, with significant support from key mineral resources and CCUS technology [34][35]. - The policy framework is increasingly systematic and sustainable, promoting the growth of renewable energy consumption while ensuring energy security [20][12]. Group 2: Energy Supply and Demand Outlook - Primary energy consumption is expected to peak between 2030 and 2035 at over 626 million tons of standard coal, then decline to 570-578 million tons by 2060, with non-fossil energy accounting for 80% of the total [2][13]. - Coal consumption is projected to peak at 437 million tons around 2025, decreasing to 38 million tons by 2060, while oil consumption is expected to peak at around 80 million tons during the 14th Five-Year Plan, dropping to 28 million tons by 2060 [14][15]. - Natural gas consumption is anticipated to peak around 2040 at 610 billion cubic meters, then decline to 400 billion cubic meters by 2060, with its role as a transitional energy source being crucial [15][14]. - Non-fossil energy supply is expected to grow rapidly, reaching 454 million tons of standard coal by 2060, with solar and wind energy contributing significantly [15][13]. Group 3: Energy Transition Recommendations - The energy transition is entering a new phase of deceleration and adjustment, necessitating the acceleration of key technology research and the improvement of energy statistics and carbon emission management systems [3][10]. - The report highlights the need to clarify critical issues in exploring energy transition pathways, as the window for exploration is narrowing [3][10].