Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with a weekly increase of 7.08%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.52 percentage points [1][9]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic sentiment has improved, leading to a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals and steel sectors. The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical commodities, recommending industrial metals such as copper and aluminum, as well as the steel sector [2][21]. - The government work report for 2025 sets a GDP growth target of around 5% and a budget deficit rate of approximately 4%, indicating a continuation of proactive fiscal policies to boost consumption and improve macroeconomic sentiment [2][21]. - Key price movements include a significant drop in alumina prices, which is expected to enhance the profitability of electrolytic aluminum producers. The report anticipates a continued upward trend in electrolytic aluminum prices due to a tight supply situation [2][22]. - The report highlights the potential for copper prices to rise amid "re-inflation" expectations, with a focus on the supply dynamics and the possibility of reduced production in the smelting sector [2][24]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.56%, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading at +7.08%. Industrial metals increased by 8.43%, precious metals by 6.48%, and energy metals by 4.58% [1][9]. - Top-performing stocks included Huayu Mining (+47.77%) and Xinweiling (+45.12%), while the worst performers were Liyuan Co. (-8.97%) and *ST Zhongrun (-8.88%) [1][9]. Metal Prices & Inventory Changes - Copper prices on the LME reached $9,602.00 per ton, up 2.57% week-on-week, while domestic prices were at ¥78,320.00 per ton, up 1.93% [16][27]. - Aluminum prices increased to $2,689.00 per ton on the LME, a rise of 3.26%, with domestic prices at ¥20,835.00 per ton, up 0.94% [25][27]. - Zinc prices also saw an increase, with LME prices at $2,882.00 per ton, up 3.00% [17][27]. Core Insights Update and Key Stock Tracking - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the non-ferrous metals sector, recommending investments in copper and aluminum due to expected price increases driven by supply constraints and improving demand [2][22]. - The report notes that the price of strategic metals like praseodymium-neodymium oxide has stabilized, with a current price of ¥460,900.00 per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.44% [53][54].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][63]. Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals - Gold: The US unemployment rate is rising, leading to a short-term increase in gold prices. As of March 7, COMEX gold futures rose by 1.76% to $2917.7 per ounce, while SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 1.1% to 894.34 tons. The unemployment rate in the US reached 4.1%, up by 0.1 percentage points. The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, which supports gold prices in the short term. However, profit-taking may lead to price fluctuations, with a long-term bullish outlook due to inflation expectations and weakening dollar credit [3][4]. - Industrial Metals: Supply disruptions are expected to drive price increases in industrial metals. The report highlights the importance of monitoring these trends [4]. - Copper: As of March 7, SHFE copper futures rose by 1.9% to 78,320 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 368,000 tons, with a decrease of 8,100 tons. The report indicates that the US manufacturing PMI recovery may boost industrial metal demand, and the long-term supply rigidity of copper is expected to support price increases [8][10]. - Aluminum: As of March 7, SHFE aluminum futures increased by 0.9% to 20,835 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory was 871,000 tons, with a continued decline. The report suggests that the aluminum sector may see price increases due to demand recovery and cost support [8][10]. - Tin: As of March 7, SHFE tin futures rose by 2.65% to 262,900 yuan per ton. Domestic tin social inventory decreased by 754 tons to 8,399 tons. The report anticipates a global tin shortage if production resumes in Q2, with long-term demand growth driven by AI applications [9][10]. - Cobalt: As of March 7, cobalt concentrate prices increased by 35.7% year-on-year. The Democratic Republic of Congo announced a temporary ban on cobalt exports, which is expected to tighten global supply and support price rebounds [9][10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to remain strong in the long term due to inflation and dollar credit concerns [3][4]. Industrial Metals - Copper: Demand recovery and supply constraints are expected to support copper prices [8][10]. - Aluminum: The sector is likely to experience price increases due to recovering demand and cost factors [8][10]. - Tin: Anticipated global shortages and AI-driven demand growth are key factors for the tin market [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the copper, aluminum, and tin sectors, highlighting specific companies such as Zijin Mining, Tianshan Shares, and Xiyang Shares for potential investment opportunities [10][62].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The lithium carbonate inventory has increased, and domestic lithium prices have decreased, indicating a potential for continued price fluctuations in the future [15][40] - The nickel market is experiencing upward price trends due to increased mining quotas in Indonesia, although demand remains weak [3][6] - Cobalt prices have surged due to supply tightening expectations following the Democratic Republic of Congo's announcement to suspend cobalt exports for four months [7] - The rare earth market is showing signs of supply constraints, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides rising [9][16] - Tin prices have decreased, but the resumption of mining in Wa State, Myanmar, is a key factor to monitor [10][16] - Antimony prices have increased due to tight raw material supplies, with a strong bullish sentiment among traders [11][17] - Uranium prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors affecting the market [14][17] Summary by Sections Lithium Industry Update - Domestic lithium carbonate prices have decreased, with industrial-grade prices averaging 73,000 CNY/ton, down 2.01% from the previous week [40] - Inventory levels have increased, with total lithium carbonate inventory reaching 115,500 tons [40] - Supply is expected to grow rapidly in March, but demand may not keep pace, leading to potential oversupply [40] Nickel Industry Update - LME nickel prices increased to 15,460 USD/ton, up 1.05% from the previous week [3] - Indonesia's nickel mining quota for 2025 has been raised to 29.85 million wet tons, which may lead to increased global nickel supply [6] Cobalt Industry Update - Cobalt prices have risen significantly, with electrolytic cobalt reaching 185,000 CNY/ton, up 13.15% [7] - Supply remains tight, and demand from the new energy sector is still present, although overall demand is sluggish [7] Rare Earth Industry Update - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have increased, with supply constraints expected to persist [9][16] - The market sentiment is positive, with expectations of stable demand from sectors like new energy and robotics [9][16] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices have decreased, with LME tin settling at 31,350 USD/ton, down 6.28% [10] - The resumption of mining in Myanmar is uncertain, and the market is closely monitoring this situation [10][16] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony prices have increased due to tight raw material supplies, with 2 low bismuth antimony ingots priced at 155,000-157,000 CNY/ton [11][17] - The market is experiencing a bullish sentiment, with traders reluctant to sell [11][17] Uranium Industry Update - Uranium prices are at a near 15-year high, supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors [14][17] - The market outlook remains optimistic due to structural shortages in supply [14][17]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the potential for aluminum prices to rise due to the resumption of Russian aluminum exports to the U.S., which may widen the domestic supply gap [4][3] - Copper prices are expected to experience short-term fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors, with a focus on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and tariff developments [4][5] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to increased supply and inventory accumulation, with expectations of a price range between 70,000 to 80,000 yuan/ton for the year [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important information indicates that U.S. initial jobless claims slightly exceeded expectations, and China's manufacturing PMI for February surpassed forecasts [12] - Market performance shows that the non-ferrous metal sector underperformed, with a decline of 2.32% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [15][16] - Valuation changes reveal that the non-ferrous metal sector's PE_TTM is 19.18, with a decrease of 0.49, while the PB_LF is 2.08, down by 0.05 [19][20] 2. Industrial Metals Copper - Copper prices saw a decline of 1.63% for LME and 0.23% for SHFE, with inventories showing mixed trends [22][25] - The copper smelting profit margin is reported at -1,916 yuan/ton, indicating a narrowing loss [25][27] Aluminum - LME aluminum prices fell by 2.78%, while SHFE prices decreased by 1.08%, with inventory levels showing an increase [28] - The profit margin for aluminum enterprises decreased by 5.37% to 4,213 yuan/ton [28] Lead and Zinc - Lead prices increased slightly, while zinc prices experienced a decline, with smelting margins showing a narrowing loss [36][39] Tin and Nickel - Tin prices decreased, while nickel prices saw a slight increase, with domestic nickel iron enterprises reporting expanded profits [43][48] 3. Energy Metals Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell by 1.25% to 75,200 yuan/ton, with significant inventory accumulation impacting market dynamics [51] - The profit margins for lithium smelting are reported as negative, indicating challenging market conditions [51] Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased, with domestic smelting margins rising significantly, reflecting improved profitability [57]