Group 1 - The article highlights the challenges faced by new employment groups, such as delivery workers, during the cold winter months, and the various measures taken by governments and companies to ensure their safety and well-being [1] - Companies like Meituan are providing winter clothing and subsidies for meals to delivery workers, enhancing their working conditions and support [3] - Meituan has distributed over 3 million "cold protection insurance" policies to riders, covering medical expenses related to cold weather [5] Group 2 - JD.com has implemented emergency measures in areas affected by extreme weather, including safety guidelines to prevent frostbite and slips, and has equipped delivery vehicles with anti-skid chains [7] - Various local initiatives, such as the establishment of 24-hour service stations, are providing essential services like rest areas, charging stations, and hot meals for outdoor workers [9] - In Wenzhou, Zhejiang, labor union stations are integrating local resources to offer discounts on meals, convenient repairs, and health services for delivery workers [11]

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，上调极兔速递-W(01519)盈利预测，维持"增持"评级。公司 四季度东南亚及新市场件量均超预期快速增长，因此该行上调极兔速递25E-27E盈利预测，预计公司25- 27年调整后净利润分别为3.87/6.02/8.88亿美元（原假设25E-27E调整后净利润为3.68/5.92/8.53亿美 元），同比分别增长93.01%/55.69%/47.47%，对应PE分别为33x/21x/15x。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 事件：极兔速递发布25年第四季度经营数据。公司第四季度整体包裹量达84.61亿件，同比增长14.5%， 其中东南亚包裹量达24.36亿件，同比增长73.6%；中国包裹量达58.91亿件，同比下降0.4%；新市场包 裹量达到1.34亿件，同比增长79.7%。 极兔在东南亚地区持续高增长，稳固行业领先地位 2025年四季度公司在东南亚地区包裹量延续高增速，达到73.6%，2025年全年公司在东南亚地区的包裹 量达到76.6亿件，同比增长67.8%，主要得益于四季度电商平台在东南亚地区持续加大投入，通过促销 活动不断丰富品类，促进流量高速增长，同时极兔凭借成本效率优 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Jitu Express (极兔速递-W) has had its profit forecast raised by Shenwan Hongyuan, maintaining an "overweight" rating due to better-than-expected growth in package volume in Southeast Asia and new markets in Q4 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Forecast - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Jitu Express for 2025-2027 are now estimated at $3.87 billion, $6.02 billion, and $8.88 billion respectively, up from previous estimates of $3.68 billion, $5.92 billion, and $8.53 billion [1] - The year-on-year growth rates for the adjusted net profits are projected to be 93.01%, 55.69%, and 47.47% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] - Corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 33x, 21x, and 15x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1] Group 2: Operational Performance - In Q4 2025, the total package volume reached 8.461 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with Southeast Asia contributing 2.436 billion packages (up 73.6%) and China contributing 5.891 billion packages (down 0.4%) [2] - The new market package volume reached 134 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 79.7% [2] Group 3: Southeast Asia Growth - Jitu Express maintained a high growth rate in Southeast Asia, with Q4 2025 package volume growing by 73.6%, and an annual total of 7.66 billion packages, representing a 67.8% increase [3] - The growth is attributed to increased investments by e-commerce platforms in Southeast Asia, promotional activities, and the company's cost efficiency, which has enhanced its market share [3] Group 4: New Market Development - In Q4 2025, the new market business volume reached 13 million packages, a year-on-year increase of 79.7%, with an annual total of 40.4 million packages, up 43.6% [4] - The growth is driven by the gradual improvement of the company's express network, which can accommodate more business from e-commerce platforms [4] - In 2025, the company established 9 new transfer centers, added 80 self-owned trunk transport vehicles, and introduced 9 automated sorting lines to enhance operational efficiency and service quality in new markets [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent leadership change at Jinziham (金字火腿) with the appointment of 90s-born Zheng Hu as president raises questions about the company's future direction and potential growth under new management [4][5]. Group 1: Leadership Transition - Zheng Hu, born in 1991, has taken over as president of Jinziham after a brief tenure of 5 months by the previous president, Guo Bo, who resigned for personal reasons [4][5]. - Zheng Hu's background includes significant experience in the luxury car sector, having worked with Aston Martin for 7 years, which may influence his strategic vision for Jinziham [5]. - The transition marks a generational shift in leadership, with Zheng Hu representing the second generation of the Zheng family in the company [6]. Group 2: Strategic Investments - Jinziham has diversified its investments, including a 300 million yuan stake in Zhongsheng Microelectronics, a company focused on optical communication chips [4][8]. - The company has established two wholly-owned semiconductor subsidiaries, indicating a strategic pivot towards high-tech industries [8]. - Zhongsheng Microelectronics has developed core chips for high-speed optical modules, which are crucial for the growing demand in AI and telecommunications [9]. Group 3: Market Trends - The optical communication industry is experiencing significant growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 17% from 2025 to 2030 [9]. - The domestic optical communication market is expected to reach approximately 147.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.67% from 2019 to 2024 [9]. - The shift towards domestic alternatives in high-end optical chips is accelerating, driven by policy support for self-sufficiency [9]. Group 4: Generational Shift in Business Leadership - The rise of "second-generation" entrepreneurs is notable, with many 90s and 00s born leaders stepping into significant roles, bringing fresh perspectives and strategies [13][14]. - These new leaders often have international educational backgrounds and diverse experiences, leading to a willingness to invest in high-growth sectors like AI, semiconductors, and biotechnology [14]. - The transition poses challenges, including the need to balance traditional business cash flow with long-term investments in technology [15].

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China is projected to exceed 200 billion packages by 2025, supporting online retail sales of over 14 trillion yuan [1] - The State Post Bureau reports that by 2025, the postal industry's revenue and delivery volume will reach 1.8 trillion yuan and 216.5 billion packages, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.4% and 11.5% respectively [1] - The express delivery revenue and volume are expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan and 199 billion packages, with year-on-year increases of 6.5% and 13.7% [1] Industry Developments - The delivery network has become more comprehensive, with major postal and express hubs established in regions such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, and Chengdu-Chongqing [1] - Rural express service coverage is continuously improving, and there is a push to enhance international delivery logistics [1] - The application of technologies such as drones, unmanned vehicles, and automated warehouses is accelerating, with over 450 drones in operation, transporting nearly 4 million packages annually [1] Future Projections - The postal express industry is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with delivery volume projected to reach 230 billion packages in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of around 6% [3] - The express delivery volume is anticipated to grow by approximately 8% year-on-year [3] - Both postal industry revenue and express delivery revenue are expected to see steady increases [3]

（原标题：港股异动 | 极兔速递-W(01519)续涨超3% 去年四季度东南亚及新市场件量均快速增长） 智通财经APP获悉，极兔速递-W(01519)续涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.45%，报11.98港元，成交额1.08亿 港元。 消息面上，极兔速递日前公布，2025年第四季度，公司总体实现包裹量84.6亿件，同比增长14.5%。 2025年全年，公司总体包裹量首次突破300亿件大关，达301.3亿件，同比增长22.2%。此外，在东南 亚，极兔2025年第四季度实现包裹量24.4亿件，同比增长73.6%；新市场包裹量达到1.34亿件，同比增 长79.7%。申万宏源指，公司四季度东南亚及新市场件量均超预期快速增长，因此上调极兔速递25E- 27E盈利预测。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry: Real Estate Core Insights and Arguments - The overall real estate market is expected to maintain a downward trend in 2026, but the decline may slow compared to 2024 and 2025. The reasoning is based on a cautious and reactive policy stance, similar to 2025, with no significant stimulus expected in the first half of the year [2][3] - The anticipated decline in sales volume for both new and second-hand homes is projected to be in the mid-single digits compared to 2025. New home sales are expected to decline by a high single-digit percentage, while second-hand home sales may see a decrease of 3% to 5% [3][4] - Second-hand home prices are expected to drop by a high single-digit percentage in 2026, reflecting a slight slowdown from the low double-digit decline in 2025. This is attributed to high inventory levels, despite a recent slowdown in new listings [5][6] - The land sales situation remains weak, with a 13% year-on-year decline in land sales in 300 cities as of November 2025. This is expected to translate into a decrease in new construction starts in 2026, with a projected decline of around 15% to 16% compared to 2025 [6][7] - The real estate market is characterized by high inventory levels and weak consumer sentiment, suggesting that price stabilization in major cities may not occur until the second half of 2027 [7][8] - Developers, particularly state-owned enterprises, are expected to face continued pressure on profit margins, despite some recovery in liquidity within the industry [8][9] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies that can effectively manage their commercial properties and those that are consolidating in the residential market, such as Huaren Zhidi and Jianfa International [10][11] Industry: Transportation Core Insights and Arguments - The transportation sector is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with December 2025 showing a further decline in industry growth rates to around 1% to 2% [15][16] - Zhongtong has been gaining market share, with a growth rate exceeding the industry average by approximately 5% in December, indicating a positive trend in market share acquisition [16][17] - The company’s ability to maintain or improve its market share is viewed as more critical than short-term profit fluctuations, as historical data suggests that sacrificing market share for profit can lead to long-term valuation declines [17][18] - The overall outlook for the transportation sector remains positive, with expectations of continued demand growth supported by geopolitical factors and a shift from unregulated to regulated markets [19][20] - The airline industry is expected to see strong demand growth, with a projected increase in passenger numbers by around 10% and ticket prices expected to rise by low double digits [20][21] - Supply constraints in the airline industry are anticipated to persist, with limited capacity growth expected to keep demand pressures high [22][23] - Upcoming catalysts for the airline sector include performance forecasts from major airlines and potential positive impacts from the Spring Festival travel season [25][26] Industry: Automotive Core Insights and Arguments - SAIC Motor Corporation is undergoing significant adjustments and improvements across its various business lines, with a focus on increasing market share in the domestic market [35][36] - The company’s self-owned brands are gradually gaining traction, with expectations of maintaining growth momentum in 2026 [36][37] - Despite challenges in the joint venture segment, particularly with SAIC Volkswagen, there is potential for surprises due to new product launches in the electric vehicle segment [38][39] - The company’s financial services and parts supply businesses are expected to benefit from recovering sales volumes, providing additional profit stability [40][41] - Overall, SAIC is positioned to capture more value as its sales recover, with a current valuation of approximately 10 times its 2026 earnings forecast, indicating potential for valuation recovery [44][45] Other Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring market dynamics and potential catalysts across various sectors, including real estate, transportation, and automotive, as they navigate through 2026 [46][47]

大摩闭门会：房地产、交运、汽车行业更新 260107 摘要 房地产市场：预计 2026 年一、二手房销售量将继续以中单位数下降， 与 2025 年跌幅相当。二手房价预计继续以高单位数下跌，跌幅或略有 放缓，但挂牌量高企是主要制约因素。 房地产开发投资：受土地销售疲软影响，2026 年新开工项目预计维持 中等程度下降，开发投资同比降幅预计与 2025 年持平，维持在 15%- 16%左右。 房地产股票投资策略：建议关注能够分拆商业物业并受益于内需刺激的 商业运营商（如华润置地、新城控股），以及通过优化业务实现盈利增 长的住宅市场整合者（如建发国际、中海地产）。 中通快递：预计明年盈利增长 10%左右，包括 10%的量增长及单位利 润持平。连续三个月增速超过行业平均水平，市场份额扩张对估值有支 撑作用，盈利增长或超预期。 航运行业：地缘政治因素导致不合规运力退出，增加合规运力需求。委 内瑞拉局势变化支持这一需求，目前位置仍具备绝对收益空间。关注春 节期间运价下调风险。 航空业：需求强劲，客流量增长 10%，票价高单位数到低双位数增长。 运力投放仅增长 2%，客座率明显上升，表明行业供给侧存在局限性， 增强了对供给 ...

Core Viewpoint - J&T Express (极兔速递) has shown significant growth in parcel volume, with a notable increase in both overall and regional performance, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts by analysts [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In Q4 2025, J&T Express achieved a total parcel volume of 8.46 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.5% [1] - For the entire year of 2025, the company surpassed the 30 billion parcel mark for the first time, reaching 30.13 billion parcels, which is a 22.2% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Regional Growth - In Southeast Asia, J&T Express reported a parcel volume of 2.44 billion in Q4 2025, marking a substantial year-on-year growth of 73.6% [1] - The new market segment contributed a parcel volume of 134 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 79.7% [1] Group 3: Analyst Revisions - Shenwan Hongyuan has upgraded the profit forecasts for J&T Express for the years 2025 to 2027 due to the strong performance in parcel volume in Q4, particularly in Southeast Asia and new markets, which exceeded expectations [1]

中国市场：25Q4实现包裹量58.9亿件，日均6400万件，符合预期；10月以来中国快递行业包裹量增速有 所放缓，10月增速下降至双位数以下，行业向高质量发展方向转变。 智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，维持极兔速递-W(01519)"买入"评级，考虑公司在东南亚市 场继续保持竞争优势，随着件量增长，新市场规模优势显现以及中国市场持续拓展与各电商平台的合 作。 浙商证券主要观点如下： 25Q4公司总体实现包裹量84.6亿件，同比增长14.5%，日均包裹量9200万件 东南亚市场：25Q4极兔实现包裹量24.4亿件，同比增73.6%，日均件量2650万件，同比+73.6%，公司在 东南亚业务量表现持续强劲，主要由于电商传统旺季及东南亚整体线上渗透率持续提升，极兔凭借稳健 的业务策略不断提升竞争有优势，当地行业份额持续向龙头集中。 新市场(包括沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、墨西哥、巴西及埃及)：25Q4极兔继续维持了自上个季度以来的强劲 增速，2025年第四季度实现包裹量破亿，达1.3亿件，同比升79.7%，日均包裹量145万件，同比 +79.7%。主要由于公司积极把握电商增长红利拓展与TikTok、Mercado ...