央视网消息：俗话说，三九四九冰上走。眼下已入"三九"，寒冷的天气对于常年奔波在外的快递小哥、外卖骑手等新就业群体来 说是不小的挑战。全国多地政府企业近期推出多项举措，为新就业群体安全过冬提供保障。 近期，美团平台向全国超过300万名骑手免费发放"防寒险"，主要用于覆盖骑手因严寒天气引发的相关医疗健康支出。外卖站点 站长关旭东称，进入冬季，外卖需求量会明显增多，骑手的工作强度也会增大，意外情况也会变多。在全国范围内为骑手发放了300 多万份的冬季配送保障，由平台全额出资，一旦在跑单过程中由于低温而产生相关症状就医，后续都会跟进理赔。 在遭遇强降雪等极端天气的地区，京东快递站点启动应急机制，增强防冻伤、防滑等安全指引，尽可能减少户外送货的风险。快 递小哥袁中义介绍，所有的配送车都提前安装了防滑链，这样在积雪的路面能更平稳，站点也为所有小哥备齐了防寒手套、热帖等防 寒保暖物资，也根据天气和路况，为快递小哥适当增加了配送补贴。 冬季跑货运，司机常常会面临雪天路滑难行，货物不能准时送达等问题。针对这些问题，货拉拉平台建立了"运费垫付"保障机 制。对于符合条件的订单，如果货主在规定时间内未支付运费，平台将全额垫付给司机； ...

实体零售同步升温，砂之船（长沙）奥特莱斯1月1日至2日客流同比增55%、销售增80%，冬装销量翻 倍；悦方IDMALL"吉鲤巡游"民俗市集带动文旅消费；费大厨辣椒炒肉长沙IFS新店元旦开业，等位超 200桌，五一商圈多家门店11时至23时全天营业，外地游客排队打卡，餐饮烟火气助燃假期消费。 观点网讯：1月4日，长沙市商务局公布，2025年12月31日至2026年1月2日，五一商圈核心区累计客流 287.92万人次，元旦当日突破百万。 家电以旧换新补贴启动首日，湖南苏宁易购门店迎来高峰，冰箱、洗衣机等6类一级能效家电补贴成交 价15%，单件最高1500元，手机等数码产品最高补500元。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the year-on-year increase in CPI was mainly driven by a sharp rebound in fresh vegetable prices, while PPI remained weak year-on-year. The unexpected rebound in exports may be due to factors such as the suppression of the base effect in October, Christmas stocking in Europe and the United States, and improvements in Sino-US tariffs. The structure of foreign trade exports continued to improve, with diversification results becoming prominent, and high-end manufacturing becoming the core driving force for exports [2]. - The economy still faces certain pressures. Although there is growth in durable goods and service consumption supported by policies on the consumer side, the structural differentiation of CPI and the mild rebound of core CPI reflect that the overall consumer willingness of residents still needs to be boosted. Exports rebounded unexpectedly in November, and the trade structure continued to improve. Affected by the high base of pre - emptive exports in the first half of this year, the resilience of foreign trade growth next year needs to be continuously observed. The 75BP interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year have brought changes in global liquidity, and overseas trade frictions may still continuously disrupt export expectations. Against the backdrop of the intertwining of internal and external factors, the probability of the introduction of growth - stabilizing policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation effects of policies and the improvement signals of prices and foreign trade [3]. - The performance of the bond market in 2026 is expected to be better than expected. Since the second half of the year, the bond market has often deviated from the fundamentals and is mainly dominated by institutional behavior. From the perspective of the domestic fundamentals, the domestic economic data is under pressure, and the necessity of lowering the policy interest rate has significantly increased. From the external environment, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 75BP, and the inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread has been significantly relieved. Currently, the yield of long - term bonds has reached a high point this year. Under the dual effects of internal and external factors, the probability of a successful long - position strategy is relatively high [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Situation - In November, CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest level since March 2024. Food prices turned from a decline of 2.9% last month to an increase of 0.2%, while non - food prices rose by 0.8% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months [2]. - Food prices "turning from negative to positive" were the core driving force. Fresh vegetable prices rose by 14.5% year - on - year, with the impact on the year - on - year increase of CPI increasing by about 0.49 percentage points. The year - on - year decline in pork prices narrowed to - 15.0%, and the prices of beef and mutton increased. Energy prices had a greater drag, with energy prices falling by 3.4% year - on - year [2]. - There was a structural differentiation in core CPI. On the industrial consumer goods side, the year - on - year increase in gold jewelry prices expanded to 58.4%, and clothing prices rose by 2.0%, but household appliance prices decreased. On the service side, although the demand for post - holiday travel declined, the prices of domestic services and dining out still maintained positive growth [2]. PPI Situation - In November, PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points. Production materials decreased by 2.4% year - on - year, and living materials decreased by 1.5% year - on - year. PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, maintaining positive growth for two consecutive months [2]. - Domestic policies and seasonal demand supported upstream prices. The start of "peak - winter power consumption" in November led to a surge in coal demand, and the prices of coal mining and washing and coal processing increased significantly month - on - month. The effects of comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition were evident, and the year - on - year decline in prices of some industries continued to narrow [2]. - Input factors showed a differentiated pattern. The increase in international non - ferrous metal prices drove up the prices of domestic non - ferrous metal mining and smelting industries, while the decline in international oil prices led to a decline in the prices of the oil and gas extraction and refined petroleum product industries [2]. - The seasonal decline in downstream demand for infrastructure restricted the overall ex - factory prices. The prices of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, reflecting the weakening of infrastructure demand. Most industries' ex - factory prices were still under significant pressure year - on - year, but non - ferrous metal industries performed well [2][3]. Foreign Trade Situation - In November, the total value of imports and exports was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%, turning from negative to positive compared with October. Imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%, continuing the six - month growth trend. The trade structure continued to have the characteristics of "strong exports and stable imports" [3]. - Trade with the EU and Africa rebounded significantly, while the decline in exports to the US continued to expand. Exports to ASEAN maintained double - digit growth. Exports to the EU rebounded strongly, and exports to Africa had a high growth rate. Although the decline in exports to the US expanded, the drag on overall exports was offset by the growth of the EU and African markets [3]. - This month's unexpected export growth was mainly affected by the rebound in export growth to the EU and Africa. High - end manufacturing became the core driving force for the rebound. Exports of mechanical and electrical products and high - tech products increased significantly year - on - year, while the growth rates of labor - intensive products were still in the decline range [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a focus on companies with optimistic profit improvement prospects. Core Insights - Domestic demand in Japan is diverging, with a rebound in duty-free sales driven by the National Day holiday and a weaker yen, marking the first positive growth in duty-free sales in eight months [3][15]. - Consumers are highly sensitive to prices for daily necessities, leading to increased average transaction values at discount and convenience stores, despite a decline in foot traffic [3][15]. - There is a trend of "downgrading" in dining and clothing consumption, with value brands like Saizeriya and Uniqlo seeing significant increases in customer traffic and same-store sales [3][15]. - Actual household entertainment spending has increased significantly, with travel and savings becoming preferred uses of disposable income, reflecting a mindset of enjoying life while prioritizing financial security amid economic uncertainty [3][15]. - The hotel industry continues to thrive due to a record number of inbound tourists and the depreciation of the yen, with strong demand for luxury goods and cosmetics from visitors [3][15]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The Japanese yen has depreciated, and inflationary pressures are rising, with the consumer confidence index slightly increasing to 35.8 in October from 35.3 in September [2][9]. - Real wages contracted by 1.4% year-on-year in September, continuing a nine-month trend of negative growth, while nominal wage growth was only 1.9%, significantly lagging behind inflation [2][9]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in October, maintaining above 2% for four consecutive months, indicating persistent price pressures [2][13]. Essential Consumption - Retail sales in essential goods are showing steady growth despite high prices, with same-store sales for major retailers like Aeon and 7-Eleven increasing by 4.7% and 1.3% respectively in October [4][18]. - The demand for basic food and beverage items remains under pressure, with a year-on-year decline in retail sales for food and beverages recorded at approximately 35.56 billion yen in September [4][18]. Optional Consumption - There is a significant increase in demand for winter clothing, with same-store sales for Uniqlo rising by 25.1% in October, driven by strong sales of winter collections [5][32]. - The restaurant sector has seen same-store sales growth for major chains like Saizeriya and McDonald's, with increases of 16.9% and 8.1% respectively in October [5][28]. - Duty-free sales have turned positive for the first time in eight months, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% in October, driven by increased tourist spending [5][36]. Stock Market Performance - The consumer sector saw most stocks rise from October 27 to November 27, with retail and food and beverage sectors gaining 5.6% and 4.7% respectively [6]. - Investment recommendations focus on companies like Mercari, which is expected to improve profitability, and Kirin Holdings, which has shown strong operational profit growth [6].

Core Insights - The winter clothing market is experiencing a surge in sales as temperatures drop, with diverse consumer preferences driving demand for various styles and functionalities [1] Group 1: Consumer Preferences - Different consumers have varying preferences for winter clothing, with some prioritizing practicality and others focusing on style and comfort [2] - The evolution of winter clothing reflects a shift from basic functionality to a more nuanced understanding of consumer needs, emphasizing quality and innovation [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The winter clothing market has expanded beyond mere warmth to include self-expression and aesthetic appeal, indicating a trend of continuous consumption upgrades [3] - The segmentation of the market has led to a richer variety of options, driven by trends such as outdoor activities, national style, and technological advancements [3] Group 3: Value Proposition - Young consumers are increasingly focused on the "quality-price ratio," seeking products that offer practical benefits and align with their personal style rather than just brand prestige [4] - Companies are encouraged to innovate in product development and design to meet the evolving demands of consumers, which can lead to enhanced market opportunities [5]

3 元 3 - 1 - 2025 年 11 月 23 日 本周重磅发布策略报告,挖掘新消费、看好全球制造 本期投资提示: -纺织服装行业周报 20251123 相关研究 《 澳毛价格企稳回升，全运会开幕提振户 外运动板块——纺织服装行业周报 20251116》 2025/11/16 《 10 月纺服出口承压,中美磋商利好有望 修复出口链一 -- 纺织服装行业周报 20251110》 2025/11/10 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanqlp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱本伦 (8621)23297818× zhubl@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 时代小 本周纺织服饰板块表现强于市场。11 月 17 日 ~ 11 月 21 日, SW 纺织服饰指数下 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 "Double 11" shopping festival has started earlier, with major platforms like Tmall, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou adjusting their promotional timelines [1] - The promotional intensity across platforms remains stable compared to the previous year, with Tmall maintaining discounts such as "300 off 50" and a 15% immediate discount [1] - The outdoor sports category shows significant discounts of approximately 50-70% after combining platform promotions and coupons [1] - Initial sales results from platforms like Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin indicate strong performance, particularly in the outdoor sports category [1] - Recent lower temperatures across many regions may stimulate winter clothing consumption [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 "Double 11" shopping festival is set to begin soon, with major platforms like Tmall, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou starting their promotional events earlier than last year [1] - The promotional periods for these platforms will last approximately one month, maintaining stable discount levels compared to the same period last year [1] - In the sports and outdoor category, discounts on promotional products range from 50% to 70% after applying various coupons and discounts [1] - Early sales results indicate strong performance on platforms such as Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin, with the sports and outdoor category showing notable strength [1] - Recent lower temperatures across many regions may stimulate winter clothing consumption [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bosideng (03998) has seen a significant increase in stock price, rising by 10.67% to HKD 4.98, with a trading volume of HKD 499 million, driven by favorable weather conditions and positive market analysis [1] Group 1: Weather Impact - The upcoming typhoon "Fengshen" and its peripheral circulation, along with cold air, are expected to bring strong wind and rain to South China and the northern South China Sea [1] - The cold air moving eastward will lead to a drop in temperatures in Jiangnan and South China, creating a favorable environment for winter clothing sales [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Shenwan Hongyuan has recommended Bosideng, highlighting that the onset of colder weather will directly benefit the company's winter apparel sales [1] - The Spring Festival in 2026 is on February 17, which is 19 days later than the previous year, extending the effective sales window and potentially increasing sales volume [1] - The low base from the warm winter of 2024 is expected to aid in achieving sales targets, while the market is currently favoring high-dividend assets [1] - Bosideng has maintained a dividend payout ratio of 80% or higher, and this trend is expected to continue, supporting the company's performance and valuation growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bosideng (03998) has seen a significant increase in stock price, rising by 10.67% to HKD 4.98, with a trading volume of HKD 499 million, driven by favorable weather conditions and positive market analysis [1] Group 1: Weather Impact - The upcoming typhoon "Fengshen" and its associated weather patterns are expected to bring strong winds and rain to South China and the northern South China Sea, which will likely boost demand for winter clothing [1] - Cold air moving south will create a core cooling area in Jiangnan and South China, enhancing the sales environment for winter apparel [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Shenwan Hongyuan has recommended Bosideng, highlighting that the onset of colder weather will directly benefit the company's winter clothing sales [1] - The Chinese New Year in 2026 falls on February 17, which is 19 days later than in 2025, extending the effective sales window for the peak season and potentially increasing sales volume [1] - The low base from the warm winter of 2024 is expected to facilitate the achievement of sales targets for Bosideng [1] - The market is currently favoring high-dividend assets, and Bosideng has maintained a dividend payout ratio of over 80%, indicating strong future performance and valuation growth [1]