Core Insights - The winter clothing market is experiencing a surge in sales as temperatures drop, with diverse consumer preferences driving demand for various styles and functionalities [1] Group 1: Consumer Preferences - Different consumers have varying preferences for winter clothing, with some prioritizing practicality and others focusing on style and comfort [2] - The evolution of winter clothing reflects a shift from basic functionality to a more nuanced understanding of consumer needs, emphasizing quality and innovation [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The winter clothing market has expanded beyond mere warmth to include self-expression and aesthetic appeal, indicating a trend of continuous consumption upgrades [3] - The segmentation of the market has led to a richer variety of options, driven by trends such as outdoor activities, national style, and technological advancements [3] Group 3: Value Proposition - Young consumers are increasingly focused on the "quality-price ratio," seeking products that offer practical benefits and align with their personal style rather than just brand prestige [4] - Companies are encouraged to innovate in product development and design to meet the evolving demands of consumers, which can lead to enhanced market opportunities [5]

3 元 3 - 1 - 2025 年 11 月 23 日 本周重磅发布策略报告,挖掘新消费、看好全球制造 本期投资提示: -纺织服装行业周报 20251123 相关研究 《 澳毛价格企稳回升，全运会开幕提振户 外运动板块——纺织服装行业周报 20251116》 2025/11/16 《 10 月纺服出口承压,中美磋商利好有望 修复出口链一 -- 纺织服装行业周报 20251110》 2025/11/10 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanqlp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱本伦 (8621)23297818× zhubl@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 时代小 本周纺织服饰板块表现强于市场。11 月 17 日 ~ 11 月 21 日, SW 纺织服饰指数下 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 "Double 11" shopping festival has started earlier, with major platforms like Tmall, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou adjusting their promotional timelines [1] - The promotional intensity across platforms remains stable compared to the previous year, with Tmall maintaining discounts such as "300 off 50" and a 15% immediate discount [1] - The outdoor sports category shows significant discounts of approximately 50-70% after combining platform promotions and coupons [1] - Initial sales results from platforms like Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin indicate strong performance, particularly in the outdoor sports category [1] - Recent lower temperatures across many regions may stimulate winter clothing consumption [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 "Double 11" shopping festival is set to begin soon, with major platforms like Tmall, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou starting their promotional events earlier than last year [1] - The promotional periods for these platforms will last approximately one month, maintaining stable discount levels compared to the same period last year [1] - In the sports and outdoor category, discounts on promotional products range from 50% to 70% after applying various coupons and discounts [1] - Early sales results indicate strong performance on platforms such as Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin, with the sports and outdoor category showing notable strength [1] - Recent lower temperatures across many regions may stimulate winter clothing consumption [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bosideng (03998) has seen a significant increase in stock price, rising by 10.67% to HKD 4.98, with a trading volume of HKD 499 million, driven by favorable weather conditions and positive market analysis [1] Group 1: Weather Impact - The upcoming typhoon "Fengshen" and its peripheral circulation, along with cold air, are expected to bring strong wind and rain to South China and the northern South China Sea [1] - The cold air moving eastward will lead to a drop in temperatures in Jiangnan and South China, creating a favorable environment for winter clothing sales [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Shenwan Hongyuan has recommended Bosideng, highlighting that the onset of colder weather will directly benefit the company's winter apparel sales [1] - The Spring Festival in 2026 is on February 17, which is 19 days later than the previous year, extending the effective sales window and potentially increasing sales volume [1] - The low base from the warm winter of 2024 is expected to aid in achieving sales targets, while the market is currently favoring high-dividend assets [1] - Bosideng has maintained a dividend payout ratio of 80% or higher, and this trend is expected to continue, supporting the company's performance and valuation growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bosideng (03998) has seen a significant increase in stock price, rising by 10.67% to HKD 4.98, with a trading volume of HKD 499 million, driven by favorable weather conditions and positive market analysis [1] Group 1: Weather Impact - The upcoming typhoon "Fengshen" and its associated weather patterns are expected to bring strong winds and rain to South China and the northern South China Sea, which will likely boost demand for winter clothing [1] - Cold air moving south will create a core cooling area in Jiangnan and South China, enhancing the sales environment for winter apparel [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Shenwan Hongyuan has recommended Bosideng, highlighting that the onset of colder weather will directly benefit the company's winter clothing sales [1] - The Chinese New Year in 2026 falls on February 17, which is 19 days later than in 2025, extending the effective sales window for the peak season and potentially increasing sales volume [1] - The low base from the warm winter of 2024 is expected to facilitate the achievement of sales targets for Bosideng [1] - The market is currently favoring high-dividend assets, and Bosideng has maintained a dividend payout ratio of over 80%, indicating strong future performance and valuation growth [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the textile and apparel industry, highlighting the resilience of the sportswear segment and the potential for growth in domestic demand [22][27]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index declining by 0.3%, outperforming the SW All A index by 3.3 percentage points from October 13 to October 17 [3]. - Recent industry data indicates a 2.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales for clothing, shoes, and textiles, totaling 940 billion yuan from January to August [10]. - The report emphasizes the significance of overseas production capacity and the upcoming third-quarter performance reports from various companies, suggesting that firms like Yanjiang and Nuobang may benefit from industry opportunities [8][10]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The textile export value for September was $12 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, while the overall textile and apparel export value for the first nine months was $221.69 billion, down 0.3% year-on-year [11][46]. - The report notes that the U.S. tariff policies are causing a divergence in production locations, favoring companies with established overseas capabilities [8][11]. Apparel Sector - The third-quarter operational data from Xtep and 361 Degrees shows resilience in the sportswear segment, with 361 Degrees reporting a 10% increase in offline sales for its main brand and children's line [9][24]. - The report recommends focusing on Bosideng due to favorable conditions for winter clothing sales, extended sales windows due to the delayed Spring Festival, and a high dividend yield [9][10]. Key Company Performance - 361 Degrees reported a 10% year-on-year increase in offline sales and a 20% increase in e-commerce sales for Q3 2025, demonstrating strong operational resilience [17][24]. - Xtep's main brand saw low single-digit growth in Q3, with online sales outperforming offline sales, particularly in children's and outdoor products [24][25]. Market Trends - The report highlights a mild recovery in domestic demand, with retail sales for clothing and textiles showing positive growth trends [10][39]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with companies that can adapt to changing consumer preferences and optimize their supply chains expected to perform better [8][10].

Core Insights - The collaboration between Meituan Flash and Tmall has significantly boosted the sales of sports products, with instant retail sales doubling and running shoe sales increasing by over 200% compared to the previous year [2] Group 1: Partnership and Sales Growth - Meituan Flash has partnered with Tmall, integrating nearly 2000 stores into its platform, enhancing the availability of sports products for consumers [1] - Tmall has experienced substantial sales growth on Meituan Flash, with winter clothing sales increasing by 110% month-on-month in December 2024 and a 120% increase in sales during the Spring Festival in January 2025 [2] - On May 20, 2025, certain brands operated by Tmall on Meituan Flash saw sales growth exceeding 400% compared to previous periods [2] Group 2: Consumer Demand and Experience Enhancement - There is a strong consumer demand for sports products in scenarios such as business trips, travel, and gifting, which has driven the growth of instant retail [3] - Meituan Flash has developed a comprehensive support mechanism for apparel merchants, enhancing the shopping experience by ensuring inventory data integration and reducing stockout situations [3][4] - The introduction of pre-order functionality has allowed Tmall to meet consumer needs outside of business hours, with pre-orders accounting for over 15% of total orders on Meituan Flash [4]