证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·公用事业 公用事业行业跟踪周报 政府工作报告首次写入未来能源，实施算电 协同新基建工程 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2026 年 03 月 09 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 任逸轩 执业证书：S0600522030002 renyx@dwzq.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周核心观点：加快推动全面绿色转型，构建新型电力系统发展未来能 源。2026 年 3 月 5 日，李强总理在第十四届全国人民代表大会第四次 会议上做政府工作报告。政府工作报告中，重点提及 1）绿色转型：绿 色燃料首入政府工作报告。完善促进绿色低碳发展政策，实施重点行业 提质降本降碳行动，深入推进零碳园区和工厂建设。设立国家低碳转型 基金，培育氢能、绿色燃料等新增长点。有力有效管控高耗能高排放项 目，加快淘汰落后产能，支持绿色低碳技术装备创新应用。完善资源总 量管理和全面节约制度，强化再生资源循环利用。2）碳达峰碳中和：延 续积极稳妥推 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the energy and mining sector. Core Insights - Emerging electricity markets face inherent volatility and market power risks, necessitating the implementation of vesting contracts as transitional financial hedging measures to stabilize generation revenues and protect retailers and consumers from price shocks [2][3]. - Historical mismanagement of market transitions has led to severe consequences, as seen in the UK and California, highlighting the importance of establishing effective transitional mechanisms to mitigate risks associated with market power and price volatility [5][6]. - Vesting contracts are identified as a more effective hedging tool compared to price caps, as they provide a balanced risk management framework while maintaining market signals for new entrants [14][21]. Summary by Sections Section on Transitional Mechanisms - Various options exist for managing the value of generation assets and protecting buyers during market development, including one-time payments to generators or retailers to cover stranded costs [8]. - Setting relatively low market price caps can protect consumers but may discourage investment signals for new capacity and weaken operational reliability incentives for flexible units [9][10]. Section on Vesting Contracts - Vesting contracts serve as a comprehensive transitional mechanism, executed between existing generators and retailers, with the government acting as a designer and counterparty [12][16]. - These contracts stabilize generation revenues around a reasonable long-term reference price, protect retailers and consumers from extreme price fluctuations, and reduce incentives for generators to exercise market power [17][21]. Section on International Examples - Singapore's introduction of vesting contracts in 2004 successfully mitigated market power and ensured revenue stability, initially covering about 65% of total demand [36][37]. - In Western Australia, vesting contracts were used to manage the dominant position of a state-owned utility, ensuring financial viability while allowing for the entry of independent generators [38][39]. - The UK’s experience in the 1990s serves as a cautionary tale, where contracts designed to support the coal industry led to significant market power abuse and price increases [41]. Section on Risk Management Tools - The report emphasizes the importance of designing vesting contracts to maintain efficient dispatch incentives while providing income stability, thus facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources [46][47].

Group 1: Industry Trends - The 2026 National Two Sessions will incorporate "computing and electricity synergy" into large-scale new infrastructure projects, indicating a strong policy catalyst for the power industry [2] - The approval of 32.59 million kilowatts of green electricity direct connection projects and the accelerated construction of a unified national electricity market system signify a shift from policy planning to industrial practice [2] - The power sector has shown excess returns recently, with the CITIC Power and Utilities Index rising for two consecutive weeks, indicating a clear trend of industry value reassessment [2] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence Developments - OpenAI has officially released its next-generation flagship language model, GPT-5.4, and its advanced version, GPT-5.4 Pro, marking a significant evolution towards the "native digital employee" paradigm [2] - GPT-5.4 can directly take over system keyboard and mouse operations, enabling complex desktop workflow automation across applications [2] - The global popularity of the new base model Step 3.5 Flash has surged, with its usage on the OpenClaw project reaching the top position globally [3] Group 3: Short-term and Long-term Industry Focus - In the short term, five sectors with marginal improvements are highlighted: chemicals, lithium mining, domestic computing power, semiconductor equipment, and overseas computing power [3] - In the long term, the focus is on the progress of societal intelligence under the new technology cycle, including continuous iteration of large models, improvement of computing infrastructure and AI ecosystem, and the realization of AI business models [3] - The emphasis is also on the self-controllable industrial chain under domestic substitution cycles, and cost reduction and efficiency improvement across the entire carbon neutrality industry chain under the "dual carbon" cycle [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of a comprehensive green transition and the development of a new energy system, as highlighted in the government work report presented by Premier Li Qiang on March 5, 2026. Key points include the introduction of green fuels, the establishment of a national low-carbon transition fund, and the promotion of zero-carbon parks and factories [4][6] - The report tracks key industry data, including a decrease in average electricity purchase prices by 8% year-on-year as of February 2026, and a stable increase in total electricity consumption by 5% year-on-year for 2025 [4][12][33] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The utility sector index increased by 3.42% during the week of March 2-6, 2026, with notable gains in various sub-sectors such as thermal power (+3.41%) and hydropower (+4.73%) [9][10] Electricity Sector Tracking - Total electricity consumption for 2025 reached 10.37 trillion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with the first industry growing by 9.9%, the second industry by 3.7%, and the third industry by 8.2% [12][19] - Cumulative electricity generation for 2025 was 9.72 trillion kWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with thermal power declining by 1.0% and renewable sources like wind and solar power growing significantly [19][20] - The average electricity purchase price in February 2026 was 364 RMB/MWh, down 8% year-on-year [33] Coal and Water Resources - As of March 6, 2026, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 743 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.10% [40] - Water levels at the Three Gorges Reservoir were normal, with inflow and outflow rates showing stability [48][54] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on green electricity, thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and the valuation of solar assets and charging station assets, recommending specific companies in each category for investment [4]

Group 1: AI in Pharmaceutical Industry - The integration of AI in drug development is transitioning from concept to practical validation, significantly enhancing molecular design efficiency and shortening research and development cycles [3] - Companies like JingTai Technology and Insilico Medicine are leveraging AI to create data-driven closed-loop systems, focusing on collaboration and incubation to advance multiple drug pipelines into clinical stages [3][4] - Multinational corporations are upgrading AI from a tool to a foundational infrastructure in research and production, with 2025-2026 identified as a critical period for increased AI investment through mergers and acquisitions [4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Power and Computing - The concept of "computing and electricity synergy" has been included in government reports, emphasizing the construction of large-scale intelligent computing clusters and the integration of power systems [8][15] - Companies like China Energy Construction are actively participating in national projects, investing significantly in smart energy solutions and demonstrating leadership in high-voltage design and construction [8][9] - The A-share computing industry is shifting its investment logic from "computing scale expansion" to "power-computing synergy efficiency," with a notable increase in AI computing power expected in the coming years [15]

Core Viewpoint - The reports from the National People's Congress and the National Development and Reform Commission emphasize the integration of "artificial intelligence +" to drive large-scale applications, focusing on the synergy between computing power and electricity as part of new infrastructure initiatives [1][2]. Group 1: New Infrastructure Initiatives - The government work report highlights the implementation of large-scale intelligent computing clusters and the synergy between computing power and electricity as key components of new infrastructure projects [2]. - The 2026 report places a stronger emphasis on the integration of computing power monitoring and scheduling as a critical task for national capabilities, enhancing the collaborative planning and intelligent scheduling of power systems and computing infrastructure [2]. Group 2: Energy System Development - The work report outlines plans to establish a new energy system, accelerate the construction of smart grids, develop new energy storage solutions, and expand the use of green electricity [2]. - The draft report calls for advancing energy-saving and carbon reduction transformations in key industries, as well as the construction of zero-carbon parks and factories [2]. Group 3: Financial Support and Investment - The State Grid announced a projected fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, representing a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, focusing on digital infrastructure and AI initiatives [3]. - The Southern Power Grid disclosed a fixed asset investment plan of 180 billion yuan for 2026, marking a five-year high, with investments directed towards new energy systems and improved power supply services [3].

- The market experienced a broad decline, with the CSI 1000 index performing relatively well among scale indices[2][6] - The coal, computer, electric power, and petroleum and petrochemical industries performed well, while the communication, transportation, machinery, electronics, and non-bank industries performed poorly[2][7] - The photovoltaic inverter, high transfer, IDC (computing power leasing), Zhipu AI, and cloud computing concepts performed well, while the PTA, shipping selection, port selection, airport selection, and cultivated diamond concepts performed poorly[2][10] - The market sentiment showed 50 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 10 stocks hitting the daily limit down, with a sealing rate of 53% and a continuous board rate of 15%, marking the lowest sealing rate in nearly a month[2][13][17] - The financing balance was 26,277 billion yuan, and the securities lending balance was 179 billion yuan, with the two financing balances accounting for 2.5% of the circulating market value and 9.1% of the market turnover[2][19][22] - The ETF with the highest premium was the Sci-Tech Composite Index Enhanced ETF, and the ETF with the highest discount was the Petroleum ETF[3][24] - The median annualized discount rates for the main contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures over the past year were 0.78%, 3.96%, 11.01%, and 13.37%, respectively[3][29] - The stocks with the most institutional attention in the past week included Litong Technology, Guangli Technology, Siling Zhiju, Guoji Jinggong, Xinkaiyuan, Yi Wang Yi Chuang, Aipeng Medical, and Wanxiang Qianchao[4][31] - The top ten stocks with net inflows from institutional seats included Dongyangguang, Wanze Shares, Hand Information, Shunwang Technology, Huilv Ecology, COSCO Shipping Energy, Tuowei Information, China Merchants South Oil, Southern Network Energy, and Meiliyun[4][36] - The top ten stocks with net inflows from Northbound Trading included Huasheng Tiancheng, COSCO Shipping Energy, Intercontinental Oil & Gas, Shunwang Technology, China Merchants South Oil, Southern Network Energy, Tongkun Shares, Guodian Nanzi, Southern Network Digital, and Zeyu Intelligent[4][37]

Core Viewpoint - Artificial intelligence (AI) is a key variable for China to seize development opportunities and shape competitive advantages in the face of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation. The government work report emphasizes the creation of a new intelligent economy and the implementation of new infrastructure projects like "computing power and electricity collaboration" as a national strategy [2][4]. Group 1: Infrastructure Development - The concept of "computing power and electricity collaboration" has been elevated to a national strategic deployment, marking a significant upgrade in AI-era infrastructure. This collaboration aims to enhance energy efficiency and stabilize computing power supply through digitalization and intelligent scheduling [4][12]. - China's data center electricity consumption is projected to increase from 82.4 billion kWh in 2019 to between 390 billion kWh and 820 billion kWh by 2030, with electricity and computing power depreciation costs accounting for about 70% of operational costs [4][10]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages - China has established a strong foundation in intelligent computing power, with a projected scale exceeding 1590 EFLOPS by 2025, and has become the second-largest globally in both total and intelligent computing power [9]. - The country has a significant advantage in renewable energy, with wind and solar power installations accounting for nearly half of the global total, providing ample low-cost green electricity for computing centers [10]. Group 3: Policy Support - Recent policies have increasingly emphasized "computing power and electricity collaboration," with various initiatives aimed at promoting green and low-carbon development in data centers and the construction of a new power system [11][15]. - The "East Data West Computing" project has established eight national computing power hub nodes and ten national data center clusters, facilitating the aggregation of large data centers in resource-rich western regions [13][14]. Group 4: Challenges and Recommendations - Despite rapid advancements, challenges remain in the integration of computing power and electricity, particularly in eastern regions where computing demand is high but energy supply is limited. Recommendations include encouraging computing power to follow electricity supply and enhancing infrastructure investments in eastern regions [15][16]. - There is a need for a more optimized national computing power strategy that includes a three-tiered architecture and promotes efficient allocation of resources, as well as innovation in collaborative mechanisms [16][19]. Group 5: Market Implications - The new model of "computing power and electricity collaboration" is expected to create a market increment of at least trillions, with significant impacts on capital market valuations for energy and technology sectors [20].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Province is positioned as a national model for common prosperity and ecological civilization, establishing a solid foundation in green energy usage and proposing four key suggestions to promote a new norm of green consumption [2]. Group 1: Energy Efficiency and Data Integration - The establishment of an "Energy Carbon Efficiency" account is recommended, driven by data integration to enhance overall energy savings. This involves creating a unified data standard for multi-dimensional energy consumption data, including water, electricity, and gas, and developing a comprehensive service platform called "Zheli Energy Saving" [2]. - The platform aims to generate "energy carbon efficiency portraits" for regions, enterprises, and households, providing customized energy-saving solutions and streamlining processes to reduce bureaucratic hurdles [2]. Group 2: Targeted Green Renewal Policies - Implementation of "Green Renewal" policies is suggested to address practical challenges through demand-oriented strategies. This includes optimizing subsidy processes to allow for online applications, smart verifications, and rapid disbursement, aiming to reduce approval times to within 15 working days [3]. - A dual approach is proposed to manage high-energy product inventories during policy transition periods, along with differentiated subsidy plans for low-income and renting groups [3]. Group 3: Development of Energy Service Professionals - The cultivation of a "Energy Saving Service" professional team is emphasized, encouraging the development of comprehensive energy service companies and the transformation of power grid enterprises and large energy-saving equipment manufacturers into energy service providers [3]. - A government-recognized directory of "Green Energy Saving Service Providers" is to be established, connecting with the "Zheli Energy Saving" platform to offer public energy-saving diagnostics and service packages to small businesses and households [3]. Group 4: Circular Economy Initiatives - The creation of a "Recycling Ecosystem" is proposed, emphasizing a closed-loop approach to ensure long-term sustainability. This includes strengthening producer responsibility and supporting the establishment of an "Internet + Recycling" network that covers urban and rural areas [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to accelerate the construction of a new energy system in China to enhance energy resource security, addressing current challenges and proposing actionable recommendations for the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3]. Group 1: Current Challenges in Energy Security - The chairman of China Huaneng Group identifies three main challenges to energy security: the coexistence of traditional and non-traditional energy security issues, risks from energy trade routes and green barriers, and the intertwined problems of balancing and stabilizing the new power system [3]. Group 2: Recommendations for Energy System Development - The first recommendation is to ensure high-level energy security through high-quality development of renewable energy, aiming for a 25% share of non-fossil energy consumption by 2030, with a focus on multi-dimensional integration of wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear energy [4]. - The second recommendation involves enhancing fossil energy continuity to provide a safety net, advocating for a balanced approach to oil and gas resource development and promoting clean and efficient use of fossil energy [4]. - The third recommendation focuses on improving electricity safety through the construction of a new power system, aiming for a national electrification rate of around 35% by 2030 and enhancing the resilience of power grids [4]. - The fourth recommendation stresses the importance of building an energy powerhouse to achieve essential energy security, emphasizing the synergy between renewable and traditional energy, technological innovation, and market-driven reforms [5].