Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, China's imports of pulp, paper, and related products saw a significant decline in both quantity and value, while exports experienced a mixed performance with an increase in quantity but a decrease in value [1] Import Summary - In April 2025, the import quantity of pulp, paper, and related products was 3.73 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 11.9% [1] - The import value for the same period was $2.34 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.7% [1] Export Summary - In April 2025, the export quantity of pulp, paper, and related products reached 1.46 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [1] - However, the export value was $2.462 billion, which indicates a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% [1]

天眼查App显示，近日，上海桨品汇纸业科技有限公司成立，法定代表人为潘光星，注册资本600万人 民币，经营范围为一般项目：技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广；纸制 造；纸和纸板容器制造；印刷专用设备制造；包装专用设备制造；纸制品销售；包装材料及制品销售； 制浆和造纸专用设备销售；办公设备耗材销售；纸浆销售；办公用品销售；文具用品批发；电子专用设 备销售；服装辅料销售；皮革制品销售；油墨销售（不含危险化学品）；新材料技术研发；工艺美术品 及礼仪用品销售（象牙及其制品除外）；专用化学产品销售（不含危险化学品）；包装服务。（除依法 须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）许可项目：道路货物运输（不含危险货物）。 （依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展经营活动，具体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许 可证件为准）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has been exporting paper tableware products to EU countries over the past two years [1] Group 1 - The company is actively engaging in international trade by exporting its products [1]

天眼查App显示，近日，东莞市忠锋纸品有限公司成立，法定代表人为贺宝忠，注册资本50万人民币， 经营范围为一般项目：纸制品制造；纸制品销售；纸和纸板容器制造；塑料包装箱及容器制造；包装服 务；办公设备耗材销售；包装材料及制品销售；货物进出口；技术进出口；塑料制品制造；塑料制品销 售。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）许可项目：包装装潢印刷品印 刷；文件、资料等其他印刷品印刷。（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展经营活动，具 体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）。 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，四川四尺纸业有限公司成立，法定代表人为刘强，注册资本10万人民币，经营 范围为一般项目：纸制品制造；纸制品销售；纸浆销售；文具用品批发；文具制造；文具用品零售；互 联网销售（除销售需要许可的商品）。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活 动）许可项目：出版物批发；出版物零售。（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展经营活 动，具体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）（涉及国家规定实施准入特别管理措施的除 外）。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the off - season, the factory ex - factory price of offset printing paper is lowered, and the market has just - needed transactions. Chenming's resumption of production may lead to an oversupply of supply, with a weak fundamental operation, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Raw material prices are at a relatively low level, and the cost reduction space is limited, but the finished product price is difficult to rise in the off - season, so the production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner [8][12][14]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Offset Printing Paper Overview - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: In the week of October 17, 2025, Jiulong Paper's Beihai base PM55 high - grade cultural paper production line was successfully put into operation. The production and start - up of double - offset paper increased. The monthly import volume decreased by 0.79 tons compared with the previous month, and the weekly apparent demand increased by 1.7 tons. The monthly export volume decreased by 0.08 tons, and domestic demand decreased by 2.89 tons. Due to the increase in production and stable demand, the inventory is expected to accumulate. For example, the enterprise inventory increased by 1.5 tons [6]. - **Price**: The ex - factory delivery prices of various brands decreased by 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous week, and the market self - pick - up prices of some brands remained unchanged. The disk price of OP2601 decreased by 24, and OP2603 decreased by 18. It is expected that the double - offset paper price will fluctuate or slightly decrease, and the disk will operate weakly [8]. - **Spread and Basis**: The disk spread is low in position, mainly for observation. The basis is expected to remain stable or slightly increase. The disk spread between January and March is expected to remain stable, and the basis of some brands is expected to weaken [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: Raw material prices are at a relatively low level, and it is expected that the cost reduction space is limited. However, the finished product price is difficult to rise in the off - season, so the production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner. For example, the profit of self - used pulp decreased by 92.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the off - season, the factory ex - factory price is lowered, and the market has just - needed transactions. The disk is expected to operate weakly, and it is recommended to use a light - position short - put strategy or a short - call strategy when it rebounds, while paying attention to risk prevention and control [14]. Part 2: Offset Printing Paper Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the cumulative import volume, production volume, total supply, total demand, and inventory of offset printing paper all showed certain changes. In 2025, the cumulative import volume showed a certain growth rate, while the production volume and total supply decreased year - on - year, and the total demand also decreased slightly. The inventory increased year - on - year in most months [16]. Part 3: Offset Printing Paper Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Production Situation**: In 2025, many companies have new production capacity put into operation or resume production. For example, Jiulong Paper has multiple production lines put into operation in different locations, and Chenming is expected to resume production of about 900,000 tons of double - offset paper capacity. From 2025 - 2026, some projects are planned to be put into operation, but some are suspended [18]. - **Demand, Inventory, and Import - Export**: No specific analysis content is provided in the given text. Part 4: Offset Printing Paper Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Cost**: The prices of raw materials such as U - needle, Moon, and Goldfish are at a relatively low level, and it is expected that the cost will remain stable or slightly increase [12]. - **Profit**: The production profit is expected to decline mainly in a fluctuating manner, and the profit of low - cost and high - cost production is expected to remain stable or slightly decrease [12]. Part 5: Offset Printing Paper Price and Spread Analysis - **Spot Quotation**: The ex - factory delivery prices and market self - pick - up prices of various brands of offset printing paper decreased compared with the previous period [8]. - **Spot - Futures Basis and OP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread**: The disk spread is low in position, mainly for observation. The basis is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, and the inter - month spread between January and March is expected to remain stable [10].

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/21 SP主力合约收盘价： 5156.00 | 日期 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5156.00 | 5122.00 | 4856.00 | 4856.00 | 4846.00 | | 折美元价 | 627.35 | 627.35 | 594.45 | 594.54 | 591.86 | | 距上一日涨跌 | 0.66380% | 5.47776% | 0.00000% | 0.20636% | 0.08261% | | 山东银星基差 | 444 | 478 | 744 | 734 | 744 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 404 | 438 | 729 | 729 | 739 | 以13%增值税计算 美元价格以及人民币价格均采用卓创数据，以13%增值税计算 | 日期 | | | 全国均价 | | | | 山东地区均价 | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The pulp main contract fluctuated at a low level last week. The SP2601 opened at 5080, reached a minimum of 5042, a maximum of 5198, and closed at 5122, with a gain of 0.87%. As of October 17, the top 20 long positions in the pulp 2601 contract were 114,426 lots (an increase of 5,390 lots from the previous day), and the top 20 short positions were 127,104 lots (an increase of 5,198 lots from the previous day) [2] - As of October 17, the price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Shandong Wuzhen was 5,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [2] - It is reported that in September 2025, Chile's Arauco Company's quotation for coniferous pulp Yinxing remained unchanged at $700/ton; the quotation for broadleaf pulp Mingxing was $540/ton, an increase of $20/ton; the quotation for natural pulp Jinxing remained unchanged at $590/ton [2] - In September 2025, China's pulp imports were 2.952 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 27.061 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 5.6%. In September 2025, the import volume of bleached coniferous pulp was 691,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.5% and a year-on-year increase of 11.3%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 6.431 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.4% [2] - In this period, the downstream demand for household paper was weak, the paper mills' shipments were poor, and the industry's operating rate was low. The large white cardboard manufacturers had strong production and sales, the paper mills' profitability improved, but the traders' shipments were average and their trading enthusiasm was not high. The downstream consumption of offset paper continued to be weak, the operating level of some printing factories was not high, and the procurement was mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The copperplate paper market had sufficient supply, the demand was weak, the consumption speed of downstream base paper was slow, and users purchased according to quantity [2] - As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.074 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 25.7%. The weak demand from downstream paper mills and limited提货 led to high inventory [2] - The total import volume of pulp continued to increase year-on-year, and the shipments of international mainstream suppliers to the Chinese market also remained at a high level. Coupled with the high port inventory, the short-term pressure on the supply side was difficult to relieve. The overall terminal demand in the downstream base paper market was weak, paper mills mainly purchased raw materials for rigid demand, and the willingness to actively increase purchases was weak. The overall market sentiment was cautious. The current "supply is stronger than demand" pattern in the pulp market continued, but thanks to the relatively strong spot price and the support of import costs, the downward space for prices may be limited, and it is likely to maintain a low-level fluctuation in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - The report presents the price data of pulp, including the closing price of the pulp futures main contract, pulp basis, the CFR intermediate price of Yinxing in China's main port area, the CFR intermediate price of broadleaf pulp Mingxing, the mainstream price of Mingxing brand broadleaf pulp in Shandong, and the market price of coniferous pulp Yinxing in Shanghai [3][5][7][8][10][13][15] Pulp Supply - The report shows the pulp import volume and coniferous pulp import volume from 2021 to 2025 [16][18][20] Pulp Demand - The report includes the consumption of coniferous pulp in Europe, the apparent consumption of pulp in China, the operating rate of downstream base paper, the consumption of downstream base paper, the inventory of downstream base paper, and the price of downstream base paper [21][22][24][33][37][41] Pulp Inventory - The report presents the inventory data of pulp, including European pulp port inventory, global wood pulp finished product inventory available days, pulp futures inventory, European coniferous pulp inventory, and European coniferous pulp inventory available days [44][45][46][48][50][54]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Current paper product demand remains stable, with no obvious rebound in paper prices. The positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [12] - As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 207.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The inventory showed a narrow - range de - stocking trend [12] - The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 26 - year Russian needle pulp. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle and high - quality softwood pulp. Maintain the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On October 17, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2605 were 5152, 4856, and 5214 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 0.35%, - 0.91%, and - 0.50%, and week - on - week changes of 0.94%, 1.42%, and 1.32% [6] - The spot prices of softwood pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and hardwood pulp Goldfish were 5500, 5000, and 4250 respectively, with day - on - day changes of 0%, 0%, and 0%, and week - on - week changes of - 0.36%, - 0.99%, and 0% [6] Outer - market Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - market quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Japanese (unclear name), and Chilean Venus were 700, 530, and 590 US dollars respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 2.78%, 3.92%, and 0% [6] - The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5721, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 2.75%, 3.87%, and 0% [6] Supply - side Data - In August 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 61.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95%; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 125.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.88% [6] - The pulp shipment volume to China was 162 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [6] - On October 16, 2025, the domestic production of hardwood pulp was 23.2 tons, and the domestic production of chemi - mechanical pulp was 23.4 tons [6] Inventory Data - On October 16, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 207.4 tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.7 tons [6] Demand - side Data - In October 2025, the production of offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard was 20.3, 7.9, 28.08, and 34.5 tons respectively [6] Valuation Data - On October 17, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 144, and the Silver Star basis was 644, with quantile levels of 0.866 and 0.878 respectively [6] - The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 221, and the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with quantile levels of 0.285 and 0.555 respectively [6]

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Nanhua Pulp Industry Weekly Report" dated October 19, 2025, with an investment rating of "Weak Maintenance" [1] Core Views - The domestic pulp market sentiment remains weak, with light spot transactions and prices under pressure. The market is in a pattern of "weak reality" versus "strong expectation", constrained by multiple factors [3] - High inventory and weak real - demand are the main factors suppressing pulp price increases. In the short term, the pulp market is expected to be range - bound and weak. The key turning points are effective inventory reduction and seasonal demand driving downstream restocking [3] Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations Core Contradiction - Fundamentally, supply pressure persists, with port inventories above 2 million tons and slow warehouse receipt digestion. The external market shows a "weak softwood, stable hardwood" situation [3] - Terminal demand is "not booming in the peak season". Downstream paper mills face high inventories and low production profits, lacking the motivation to restock significantly [3] - Near - term trading: Warehouse receipts suppress prices, and there is poor willingness to take delivery of Russian softwood pulp. High - level inventory makes de - stocking difficult [4] - Long - term trading: The impact of warehouse receipts will decline to some extent, but there will still be available warehouse receipts in 2026. Fed rate - cut expectations are strengthening, but US trade policies may bring supply pressure [4] Trading Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: Oscillating downward. Consider selling near - month out - of - the - money call options [6] - Basis strategy: The near - month basis of Russian softwood pulp remains high. Selling the basis requires improved spot liquidity of Russian softwood pulp [7] - Spread strategy: Due to the continuous impact of warehouse receipts and high port inventories, consider a reverse spread for the 01 - 03 contracts [7] Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory management: For enterprises with high softwood pulp inventories worried about price drops, short pulp futures at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton [8] - Procurement management: For paper - making enterprises with low inventories, buy pulp futures at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4900 - 5000 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [8] This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events This Week's Important Information - There is no positive information. Negative factors include high - level port inventory de - stocking difficulties, warehouse receipt pressure, weak demand, and poor downstream profitability [9][12] - Spot transaction information shows the latest prices, price changes, and price ranges of various pulp and paper products [10][11][13] Disk Interpretation Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Last week, the sp2511 contract oscillated at a low level, and the sp2601 contract had limited rebound, showing a bearish technical trend [16] Basis and Spread Structure - The spread structure maintains a C - structure. Warehouse receipts of Brazilian softwood pulp continue to suppress prices, with about 15 - 170,000 tons of warehouse receipts in the market. Consider shorting the 01 - 03 spread [19] Supply - Demand and Inventory DemandDemand and Inventory Inventory - On October 17, inventory was 2.074 million tons (- 0.3). High - level inventory is difficult to reduce. Although domestic softwood pulp imports in August were at a five - year low, the increase in global pulp shipments to China in August will pressure future de - stocking [21] - Downstream finished paper inventories are accumulating, and low profit margins restrict raw material restocking [21] Supply - Domestic production and import volume data of various types of pulp are presented, showing the production and import trends of pulp in different periods [45][46][48] Demand - Data on finished paper capacity utilization, production, export, and consumption are provided, reflecting the demand - side situation of the pulp industry [55][61][64][69] Spot - Spot prices of pulp, including domestic and international prices, and prices of finished paper products such as white cardboard, offset paper, and copperplate paper are presented [73][75][79]