Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities including palm oil, soybean, and related products, along with important fundamental information such as weather in the US, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - economic news, and capital flows in the market [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - **Futures**: The closing prices and daily and overnight price changes of commodities like Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybean futures are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 10 (BMD) is 4283.00, with a daily increase of 0.35% and an overnight increase of 0.68% [1]. - **Currencies**: The latest prices and price changes of the US dollar index and multiple currencies against the US dollar are provided, such as the US dollar index at 98.90, up 0.25% [1]. Spot Market Conditions - **Futures and Spot**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are given. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China is 9050, with a basis of 130 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and CNF quotes of imported soybeans from different regions are shown, like the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans is 266 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 469 dollars per ton [4]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather in Production Areas**: The future weather outlook of US soybean - producing states from August 3rd to 7th shows that the temperature is close to the average and precipitation is mostly above the median. The Midwest planting belt has rising temperatures and relatively high soil moisture [5][7]. - **International Supply - Demand**: The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement on palm oil trade, with the EU allowing zero - tariff imports of a certain quota of Indonesian palm oil. Indonesia is expected to export over 500 tons of palm oil to India in 2025. Brazil's July soybean and soybean meal export forecasts are lower than the previous week. EU's 2025/26 imports of palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed are all lower than the same period last year. Canada's June rapeseed crushing volume increased by 3.0% month - on - month [9][10][11]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand**: On July 29th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 152% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased significantly, and the operating rate of oil mills rose. The national soybean oil port inventory increased by 2.8 tons compared to the previous week [14]. Macroeconomic News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The US consumer confidence index in July is 97.2, higher than the expected value [15]. - **Domestic News**: On July 29th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1511, up 44 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 2344 billion yuan [18]. Capital Flows On July 29th, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 38.56 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 0.57 billion yuan, including an outflow of 9.38 billion yuan from agricultural product futures and 8.29 billion yuan from chemical futures, while black - series futures had a net capital inflow of 33.2 billion yuan. Index futures had a net capital outflow of 38 billion yuan [21].

Group 1: Report Core View - Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to reach 1,205 million tons, lower than the previous week's estimate of 1,211 million tons, and the July soybean meal exports are expected to reach 213 million tons, lower than the previous week's estimate of 240 million tons [1] - Argentina will resume soybean and by - product exports once the government officially implements the weekend - announced policy of reducing withholding tax. The soybean export withholding tax rate will be reduced from 33% to 26%, and that of soybean by - products from 31% to 24.5% [1] - Canada's rapeseed crushing volume in June 2025 was 856,096 tons, a 3% increase from the previous month and a 10.27% increase year - on - year. Rapeseed oil production was 364,592 tons, a 3.22% month - on - month increase and an 8.86% year - on - year increase. Rapeseed meal production was 507,038 tons, a 3.47% month - on - month increase and a 13.32% year - on - year increase [1] - The EU and Indonesia have reached an agreement. The EU will reduce the tax on Indonesian palm oil to 0% under the yet - to - be - signed CEPA, with a quota system. Any palm oil exceeding the quota will face a 3% tariff [1] Group 2: Spot Price - From July 23 to July 29, 2025, the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu showed different fluctuations [4] Group 3: Other Information - There are data on oilseeds basis, oilseeds and fats price spreads, and protein meal basis, but no specific data content is provided [7][8][12]

Core Viewpoint - A significant trade conflict is escalating between China and the United States, particularly affecting agricultural products, as China has ended tariff exemptions on U.S. agricultural imports, leading to increased tariffs and potential market shifts [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Agriculture - The U.S. agricultural sector faces severe consequences, with tariffs on beef expected to rise from 32.5% to 62.0%, making U.S. beef more expensive than competitors like Australian and Brazilian beef [3][4]. - Pork tariffs could increase from 57% to 87%, drastically reducing the share of U.S. pork in China's imports from 18% to single digits [3][4]. - The agricultural market is experiencing a broad impact, with various products like grains, oilseeds, and nuts losing competitiveness in China [3][4]. Group 2: China's Agricultural Landscape - China is projected to produce 57.06 million tons of domestic pork in 2024, with U.S. pork imports constituting only 0.7% of its supply, indicating minimal impact from the U.S. exit [5]. - The demand for U.S. pork by Chinese fast-food and hotpot restaurants is expected to decline, leading to a potential 15% increase in domestic substitute prices [5]. - South American countries are seizing the opportunity to expand their market share in China, with Brazil investing $5 billion to enhance cold chain logistics and Argentina accelerating beef export certifications [5]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments by Allies - U.S. allies are adjusting their strategies in response to the trade conflict, with the EU and Japan negotiating favorable terms in exchange for tariff concessions [7]. - China's termination of agricultural tariff exemptions signals a refusal to engage in one-sided concessions during negotiations [7]. Group 4: Future Projections - The ongoing trade negotiations are critical, with the U.S. agricultural sector expressing concerns about the long-term implications of the tariff increases, particularly for pork, which may follow the trajectory of soybeans, whose market share in China has drastically declined [9]. - The anticipated U.S. pork imports to China are expected to drop from 408,000 tons in 2024 to less than 100,000 tons this year, indicating a significant market shift [9].

Group 1 - The event "2025 International Agricultural Products Cooperation Activities (Malaysia, Thailand)" aims to enhance international agricultural trade cooperation and support Chengdu enterprises in expanding their international market presence [1][6] - Chengdu will organize a delegation of high-quality enterprises in agriculture, fresh produce, food, and condiments to participate in the "Malaysia International Food and Beverage Exhibition (MIFB)" from July 30 to August 1, showcasing Chengdu's export products [3][4] - The event includes various activities such as international exhibitions, promotional meetings, and business matchmaking to help Chengdu enterprises connect with Southeast Asian markets and secure international orders [5][6] Group 2 - The promotional meetings in Malaysia and Thailand will adopt a "presentation + targeted negotiation" model, inviting local government trade agencies and key enterprises to facilitate direct connections between Chengdu agricultural products and international buyers [5][6] - Chengdu's government aims to promote local food and condiment enterprises to enter the ASEAN market while also facilitating the import of high-quality fruits and seafood from Malaysia and Thailand to diversify local market offerings [6][7] - The government-led initiative provides core support for enterprises, including cost reduction for participation in exhibitions and enhanced trust from international clients, thereby increasing the likelihood of successful collaborations [7][8]

Core Insights - The China National Grain and Oils Information Center is organizing a dual-price bidding event for domestic soybeans on August 1, 2025, with a total of 40,302 tons available for trading [1] Group 1 - The event will focus on the purchase and sale of domestic soybeans, indicating a strategic move to enhance local agricultural commodity trading [1] - The dual-price bidding format suggests a competitive environment aimed at optimizing pricing and supply chain efficiency for domestic soybeans [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The planting of US corn is completed, and it is currently in a weak state. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, US corn prices have continued to decline. However, as weather factors are likely to be speculated on later, the downward space for US corn is limited. China has restored a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, and the import price from Brazil in August is 2,001 yuan. [3] - The flat - hatch price of ports in the north is stable, around 2,320 yuan. The spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply in North China has decreased, and the corn spot price has risen. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn is stable. The wheat price in North China is stable, around 2,450 yuan/ton. The price difference between wheat and corn is small, and wheat substitution continues. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is high. The corn spot price is relatively stable in the short term. Recently, imported corn has been auctioned successively, making the corn spot price weak. The inventory of corn traders in North China is still low, and some feed enterprises will stock up in August. It is expected that the supply of corn in North China will still be tight. It is estimated that the short - term support for North China corn is strong around 2,400 yuan/ton, and around 2,220 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang. [3][5] - The number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is strong. The starch price in Shandong is basically around 2,860 yuan, and the starch spot price in the Northeast is also stable. This week, the inventory of corn starch has increased. The manufacturer's inventory this week is 1.311 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 19.4%. At present, the starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stockpiling. The average income from by - products in the past few years has basically been over 600 yuan. Today, the contribution of by - products in Shandong is 627 yuan (662 yuan in Heilongjiang). Recently, the by - product price has been strong, higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is low. North China corn is stable in the short term, while Northeast corn is relatively weak. In the long - term, due to weak starch demand, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. It is expected that the short - term 09 starch contract on the futures market will fluctuate narrowly. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market Data**: On July 29, 2025, for different corn and corn starch futures contracts, there were fluctuations in closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the closing price of C2601 was 2,215, down 11 points or 0.50%, with a trading volume of 81,555 (down 2.80%) and an open interest of 213,252 (up 10.23%). [2] - **Spot Market Data**: The current prices and price changes of corn and corn starch in different regions are provided. For example, the current price of corn in Qinggang is 2,270 yuan, with no change; the current price of starch in Longfeng is 2,850 yuan, with no change. [2] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of corn and corn starch, as well as the price spreads between different contracts, are presented. For example, the basis of C2601 is - 32, and the spread of C01 - C05 is - 48, down 3 points. [2][4] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The planting of US corn is completed, and it is in a weak state. After the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, US corn prices continue to decline. However, the downward space is limited due to potential weather speculation. The import profit of foreign corn is high. The domestic corn market has different situations in different regions. North China corn may be in short supply in the short term, while the overall domestic corn spot price is relatively stable in the short term but weak due to imported corn auctions. [3][5] - **Starch**: The starch price is affected by corn price and downstream stockpiling. The inventory has increased this week. The by - product price is strong. In the long - term, due to weak demand, enterprises may face long - term losses. The short - term 09 starch contract on the futures market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. [6] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: The domestic 09 corn contract will continue to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to wait and see. [8] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Buy the spot and short the 09 corn contract in a rolling manner, and wait and see the price spread between 09 corn and starch. [8] 3.4 Corn Options - **Option Strategy**: Enterprises with spot can close out short positions of corn call options, or short - term traders can try to sell on rallies. [11] 3.5 Related Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts showing the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 09 contracts, the price spreads between different corn and corn starch contracts, etc., providing visual data support for market analysis. [12][14][18]

Core Insights - Brazil's soybean exports to China are at a high level, reflecting the country's increasing strategic position in the international agricultural supply chain [1][2] - The current export advantage of Brazil is attributed to enhanced structural supply capabilities rather than opportunistic factors [2] - Brazil's agricultural export strategy will be crucial for maintaining its sustainable position in the global supply landscape [1] Export Performance - In June, Brazil exported 10.62 million tons of soybeans to China, accounting for 86.6% of China's total soybean imports for the month, a 9.2% increase from 9.73 million tons in the same month last year [2] - For the first half of the year, Brazil's soybean exports to China totaled 31.86 million tons, while the U.S. exported 16.15 million tons, with both countries together accounting for over 98% of China's soybean imports [2] - Despite significant growth in June, Brazil's total soybean exports to China for the first half of the year decreased by 7.5% compared to the previous year [4] Market Dynamics - The Brazilian soybean production for the 2024/25 season is projected to reach 147.5 million tons, a 4% decrease from the previous season, but still near historical highs due to improved climate conditions [3] - The depreciation of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar has enhanced the international price competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans [3] - Forecasts suggest that Brazil's soybean exports could reach 8.7 million tons by July 2025, significantly higher than 7.36 million tons in the same period last year [3] Structural Changes and Risks - The reliance on a single market for soybean exports poses increasing risks, with experts warning of a potential slowdown in export pace in the third quarter due to global inventory levels and fluctuating demand expectations [4] - Brazil is facing medium to long-term risks related to soybean price volatility, trade policy adjustments, and extreme climate conditions, necessitating diversification of export markets [5] - Efforts are underway to strengthen agricultural trade agreements with East Asian countries and improve non-tariff barriers to enhance market access [5] Future Outlook - Brazil is transitioning from being a global supply hub to a stable strategic exporter, with a focus on improving agricultural infrastructure efficiency and enhancing the value-added of export products [6] - The Brazilian government is actively working to deepen agricultural cooperation with China, emphasizing the importance of diversifying import sources and enhancing traceability mechanisms [5][6] - The ability to negotiate effectively in a complex international landscape will be crucial for Brazil's future role and influence in the global food market [6]

Core Viewpoint - Canada has imposed a 25% tariff on imported products containing Chinese steel, which is seen as an attempt to shift the burden of its trade issues with the U.S. onto China [1][3] Group 1: Trade Relations - The Canadian government is responding to stalled trade negotiations with the U.S. by targeting China, hoping to gain favor with the U.S. by sacrificing Chinese interests [1][3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce criticized Canada's actions as a violation of WTO rules and indicative of unilateralism and protectionism [3][8] Group 2: Economic Impact - China's response includes a significant order worth $3.7 billion for agricultural products from Australia, effectively closing the door on Canadian canola exports, which previously accounted for 64% of Canada's total exports to China [3][4] - Canadian farmers are experiencing delays in soybean orders and significant port congestion, with 8 million tons of canola stuck at ports [4][6] Group 3: Domestic Reactions - Canadian farmers and agricultural associations are expressing dissatisfaction, with calls for the government to reconsider its approach to trade with China [6][7] - Internal divisions are emerging within Canada, with opposition parties questioning the government's strategy and its impact on farmers [6][7] Group 4: Comparative Analysis - Australia is seizing the opportunity to re-establish trade with China, utilizing a rolling procurement model that allows for flexibility and short-term gains [4][7] - Canada's concessions to the U.S. have not resulted in reciprocal treatment, leading to a cycle of dependency and loss of trade partners [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the agricultural trade between China and South Korea has steadily increased since the signing of the free trade agreement in 2015, with a balanced trade structure benefiting both sides [1] - South Korea primarily imports fresh agricultural products such as fruits and vegetables from China, while exporting processed foods to China [1] - Climate change significantly impacts South Korea's agriculture due to limited farmland, leading to price volatility in agricultural products, which can be mitigated by importing fresh produce from China [1] Group 2 - Technological innovation is seen as a crucial driver for agricultural development in both countries, with a focus on cooperation in agricultural technology [2] - The signing of the free trade agreement and both countries being members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) provides opportunities for collaboration in various fields [2] - There is currently no established guideline or roadmap for cooperation between China and South Korea under the RCEP framework, but increased communication may lead to future developments [2]

Core Insights - Brazil's establishment of a tax office in Beijing is a strategic move aimed at reshaping South America's geopolitical landscape and reducing U.S. influence [1][5][12] Group 1: U.S.-Brazil Relations - The U.S. government, under Trump, threatened to increase tariffs on Brazilian goods from 10% to 50%, which is a significant escalation [3][5] - This threat was intended to pressure Brazil, but instead, it strengthened President Lula's resolve to pursue an independent strategy [5][11] Group 2: Economic Strategy - The tax office is part of a broader strategy to attract Chinese investment and facilitate the ambitious "Two Oceans Railway" project, which aims to connect Brazil's Santos port to Peru's Pacific port [7][9] - The railway project is expected to generate over $100 billion in economic benefits annually and significantly alter trade routes in South America [9][12] Group 3: China-Brazil Cooperation - Brazil's trade with China reached $188.1 billion in 2024, compared to $92 billion with the U.S., indicating a shift towards deeper economic ties with China [13] - The establishment of the tax office signals Brazil's readiness to eliminate technical barriers for Chinese investment, enhancing cooperation [10][16] Group 4: Political Implications - The move to establish the tax office and pursue the railway project demonstrates Brazil's ambition to assert its leadership in South America and reduce dependency on U.S. trade routes [12][16] - However, Brazil faces internal political instability and external pressures from the U.S., which could impact the success of these initiatives [13][14]