农产品期货

Search documents
【期货盯盘神器专属文章】CBOT农产品晚间分析:美豆直逼10美元心理关口,是触底反弹,还是将打开通往9.7美元年度低点的大门?当所有利空都已被定价,严重超卖的农产品市场会否迎来报复性反弹?
news flash· 2025-07-30 13:06
CBOT农产品晚间分析:美豆直逼10美元心理关口,是触底反弹,还是将打开通往9.7美元年度低点的大 门?当所有利空都已被定价,严重超卖的农产品市场会否迎来报复性反弹? 相关链接 期货盯盘神器专属文章 ...
【期货热点追踪】美豆在丰产预期下积弱难返,国内豆粕现货却逆势挺价,是空头陷阱还是强弩之末?机构预警Q4大豆到港量将“大幅下滑”?
news flash· 2025-07-30 11:23
美豆在丰产预期下积弱难返,国内豆粕现货却逆势挺价,是空头陷阱还是强弩之末?机构预警Q4大豆 到港量将"大幅下滑"? 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...
棉系数据日报-20250730
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 08:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the context of the expected high yield of new cotton crops and the reality of the shortage of old - crop inventories, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is prominent. From late July to early August is a window period for multiple policies and industry events. The content of domestic policy meetings, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, the actualization of the high yield of new cotton, whether the import sliding - duty quota will be increased and the magnitude of the increase all have a significant impact on the Zhengzhou cotton outlook, especially the increase of the import sliding - duty quota has a greater impact on the supply - demand of old crops and near - term contracts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Items Domestic Cotton Futures - On July 29, CF01 was 14025, down 40 or - 0.28% from July 28; CF09 was 13925, down 150 or - 1.07% from July 28; CF09 - 01 was - 100, down 110 from July 28 [3]. Domestic Cotton Spot - On July 29, the price in Xinjiang was 15431, down 42 or - 0.27% from July 28; in Henan it was 15634, down 46 or - 0.29%; in Shandong it was 15562, down 48 or - 0.31%. The Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1506, up 108 from July 28 [3]. Domestic Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot - On July 29, the domestic cotton yarn futures CY was 19995, down 240 or - 1.19% from July 28. The C32S price index of domestic cotton yarn spot was 20720, down 60 or - 0.29% from July 28 [3]. US Cotton Spot - On July 29, the CT price was 68 USD/ pound, unchanged from July 28. The arrival price was 77.60, up 0.1 or 0.13% from July 28. The 1% quota pick - up price was 13715, up 17 or 0.12% from July 28. The sliding - duty pick - up price was 14425, up 5 or 0.03% from July 28 [3]. Spread Data - On July 29, the yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 5970, down 200 from July 28; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 710, down 12 from July 28; the domestic - foreign spread (spot) was 1847, down 65 from July 28 [3].
郑棉承压回落,糖价延续震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][5][8] 2. Report's Core View - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply - loose pattern. Zhengzhou cotton prices are restricted in their upward space, and new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices. Sugar prices will mainly fluctuate in the short - term and trend downward in the long - term. Pulp prices are affected by supply pressure and weak demand, and it's difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [2][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,925 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,431 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 27, the budding rate of U.S. cotton was 80%, 6 percentage points slower than last year; the boll - setting rate was 44%, 8 percentage points slower than last year; the good - quality rate was 55%, 5 percentage points higher than last year and the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the international cotton market lacks clear direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will be supply - loose. U.S. cotton prices are expected to fluctuate. Domestically, cotton commercial inventory is depleting fast, but new cotton is expected to be abundant, and terminal demand is weak. New cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou cotton has an upward trend, but the supply is sufficient in the new year, and the upward space is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,867 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.38%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,915 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Analysts expect the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July to be 48.3 million tons (up 11.3% year - on - year), sugar production to be 3.3 million tons (up 12.5% year - on - year), and ethanol production to be 2.19 billion liters (up 2.3% year - on - year) [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in an increasing - production cycle, suppressing ICE raw sugar prices. However, the narrow sugar - alcohol price difference and Indian policies may lead to short - term rebounds. In China, domestic sugar sales are fast, but imports may suppress prices. New sugar listing will increase downward pressure [5] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and trend downward in the long - term [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,374 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.26%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - The prices of imported wood pulp showed different trends. Some softwood pulp prices declined, some hardwood pulp prices were in a stalemate, and some chemical mechanical pulp prices increased [6] Market Analysis - Pulp prices fluctuated. The anti - involution policy boosted the market, but supply pressure remains as imports increased in the first half of 2025 and domestic production capacity will increase. Demand is weak both at home and abroad, and terminal demand improvement is limited in the second half of the year [7] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term price increases are driven by macro - sentiment, and there is a chance to short at high prices after the macro - stimulus ends [8]
【环球财经】芝加哥农产品期价29日全线下跌
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-29 23:26
分析认为,虽然美国8月初至中旬天气较冷,但前一日的风暴灾害不会对中西部玉米、大豆作物产生实 质性影响,这导致芝加哥农产品期价当天走低。 另外,最新的天气预报显示,堪萨斯州、东北部东部以及中西部东部大部分地区未来6-10天将迎来降 雨。整个美国中部地区8月上旬将迎来温和气温。凉爽的气温加上充足的地下土壤墒情,有利于作物生 长。 (文章来源:新华财经) 新华财经纽约7月29日电(记者徐静)芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价29日全线下跌。 当天,芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的12月合约收于每蒲式耳410.75美分,比前一交易日下跌 3.25美分,跌幅为0.79%;小麦9月合约收于每蒲式耳529.75美分,比前一交易日下跌8.75美分,跌幅为 1.62%;大豆11月合约收于每蒲式耳1008.25美分,比前一交易日下跌3.25美分,跌幅为0.32%。 ...
ICE农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌,可可期货跌2.04%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-29 22:19
Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a majority of contracts decline, with raw sugar futures increasing by 0.79% to 16.56 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 1.00% to 67.66 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell by 2.04% to $8344.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures dropped by 1.41% to 297.45 cents per pound [1]
CBOT农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌,小麦期货跌1.62%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-29 22:19
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures contracts closed lower across the board on July 29, with soybean futures down by 0.32% at 1008.25 cents per bushel, corn futures down by 0.79% at 410.75 cents per bushel, and wheat futures down by 1.62% at 529.75 cents per bushel [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures experienced a decline of 0.32% [1] - Corn futures fell by 0.79% [1] - Wheat futures decreased by 1.62% [1]
【期货盯盘神器专属文章】CBOT农产品晚间分析:在完美天气与超预期优良率的双重打压下,农产品市场空头氛围浓郁,当丰产预期成为“明牌”,下跌通道彻底打开了吗?
news flash· 2025-07-29 13:21
CBOT农产品晚间分析:在完美天气与超预期优良率的双重打压下,农产品市场空头氛围浓郁,当丰产 预期成为"明牌",下跌通道彻底打开了吗? 相关链接 期货盯盘神器专属文章 ...
【期货热点追踪】豆粕期货连跌第四天!机构分析指出,反内卷背景下的生猪养殖企业和屠宰企业去产、降重、去豆粕在预期上对豆粕需求产生利空影响,豆粕处于季节性供应过剩局面,何时才能进入去库周期?点击了解。
news flash· 2025-07-29 13:01
豆粕期货连跌第四天!机构分析指出,反内卷背景下的生猪养殖企业和屠宰企业去产、降重、去豆粕在 预期上对豆粕需求产生利空影响,豆粕处于季节性供应过剩局面,何时才能进入去库周期?点击了解。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...
银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20250729
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 12:10
Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 14025, 13965, and 13925 respectively, with price changes of -40, -35, and -150 [3]. - The closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts were 20005, 20190, and 19995 respectively, with price changes of -160, 0, and -240 [3]. - The price of CCIndex3128B was 15580 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the price of CY IndexC32S was 20720 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [3]. - The price of Cot A was 78.70 cents/pound, down 0.50 cents; the price of FCY IndexC33S was 22116 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [3]. - The price of (FC Index):M: to - port price was 77.63 cents/pound, down 0.47 cents; the price of Indian S - 6 was 54000 rupees/candy, unchanged [3]. - The price of polyester staple fiber was 7450 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the price of pure polyester yarn T32S was 11130 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The price of viscose staple fiber was 12700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of viscose yarn R30S was 17250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 60, down 5; the 5 - 9 month spread was 40, up 115; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 100, down 110 [3]. - The 1 - 5 month spread of cotton yarn was - 185, down 160; the 5 - 9 month spread was 195, up 240; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 10, down 80 [3]. - The CY01 - CF01 spread was 5980, down 120; the CY05 - CF05 spread was 6225, up 35; the CY09 - CF09 spread was 6070, down 90 [3]. - The 1% tariff - based internal - external cotton price spread was 1673 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan; the sliding - scale tariff - based internal - external cotton price spread was 1021 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [3]. - The internal - external yarn price spread was - 1396 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of July 27, the budding rate of U.S. cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states was 80%, 6 percentage points slower than the same period last year and the same as the five - year average [6]. - As of July 27, the boll - setting rate of U.S. cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states was 44%, 8 percentage points slower than the same period last year and 3 percentage points faster than the five - year average [6]. - As of July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states was 55%, 5 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 5 percentage points higher than the five - year average [6]. - As of July 26, the total harvesting progress of Brazilian cotton was 21.7%, up 5 percentage points from the previous week and 3.1 percentage points slower than the same period last year [6]. - As of the week of July 28, 2025, the weekly cotton listing volume in India was 1.15 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64%; the cumulative cotton listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.093 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [7]. Trading Logic - U.S. cotton may be slightly weaker in the short term due to the increase in the actual sown area at the end of June and the alleviation of drought in the main producing areas, but there are potential positive factors such as trade negotiations and weather trading [8]. - The current cotton commercial inventory and import volume are at low levels in the same period over the years, which may lead to a slightly tight supply at the end of the season. The issuance of sliding - scale tariff quotas and the Sino - U.S. trade and tariff situation will affect the market [8]. - Considering that the downstream needs time to digest the current price, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate at the current level in the short term [8]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10]. - Options: Sell put options [12][16]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Recently, Zhengzhou cotton has been slightly weaker, and the pure - cotton yarn market has mainly maintained stable quotations. The transaction price is approaching the quotation. The downstream has insufficient orders and mainly replenishes inventory for rigid demand [12]. - The overall demand in the pure - cotton grey fabric market is weak, and the fabric price is mainly stable and weak. Some weaving factories in local areas have improved orders recently, but the order volume is small [12]. Group 3: Options - Today, the 10 - day HV of cotton was 10.0386, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF509 - C - 13800 was 13.6%, that of CF509 - P - 13600 was 11.8%, and that of CF509 - P - 13000 was 11.9% [14]. - Today, the position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8595, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6113. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased [15]. - Option strategy: Sell put options [16].