Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market remains relatively loose in supply and demand, with the US market showing a stronger trend due to increased exports, while Brazilian soybean prices may face pressure in the medium term [4]. - The domestic spot market for soybean meal and rapeseed meal is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with soybean meal showing a phased rebound and rapeseed meal experiencing a decline [3]. - The price of US soybeans is expected to have limited upside space and will mainly fluctuate at high levels, while the price of Brazilian soybeans is expected to fluctuate. The price of soybean meal may face pressure in the medium to long term, and the demand for rapeseed meal is generally weak [7]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - US soybean futures continued to rise slightly, driven by improved trade relations. Brazilian soybean prices remained stable, with limited changes in exports and international demand. Domestic soybean meal futures rebounded due to the overall rebound in agricultural products, while rapeseed meal futures declined after a recent rally [3]. - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened, and the inter - month spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In the international market, the fundamental changes in US soybeans are limited. The estimated reduction in new - crop yields provides some support for prices, but the upside space is limited. In South America, the supply of Brazilian soybeans is expected to increase as the new - crop planting progresses rapidly, and the old - crop exports and crushing are strong. The old - crop production in Argentina is large, and the pressure on exports has eased [4]. - In the domestic market, the supply of soybean meal is abundant, with increasing oil - mill operating rates. The supply of rapeseed meal is also relatively loose, with sufficient granular rapeseed meal inventory [5]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The macro - environment has stabilized recently. Positive signals from China - US negotiations have boosted the US soybean market. The resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China has improved the export prospects of US soybeans. However, the impact of macro - factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future [6]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - The upward movement of US soybean prices is mainly driven by short - term factors, and the upside space is limited. Brazilian soybean prices are expected to face pressure but may be supported by slow planting progress in the short term. The price of soybean meal is supported in the short term but may face pressure in the long term. The demand for rapeseed meal is weak, and the inter - month spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see for the 05 contract. - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. - For options, a short straddle strategy is suggested [8][9].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The peanut spot price is expected to be relatively stable in the short - term, with prices in Henan stable and those in the Northeast being strong. Futures will continue to oscillate at the bottom. The new - season peanut output is expected to be higher than last year, and the planting cost has decreased. Oil mills' theoretical profit is acceptable, and peanut meal is expected to be strong in the short - term [4][8][6]. Group 3: Summary by Sections Data - **Futures Disk**: PK604 closed at 7862, up 30 (0.38%), with a trading volume of 11,043 (-47.34%) and an open interest of 19,930 (6.10%); PK510 closed at 8154, up 6 (0.07%), with a trading volume of 36 (0.00%) and an open interest of 552 (1.28%); PK601 closed at 7814, up 60 (0.77%), with a trading volume of 91,458 (-12.54%) and an open interest of 159,998 (-7.51%) [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7400, 7800, and 7800 respectively, with no change. Basis was -414, -14, -14 respectively. Import prices of Sudanese rice were 8600 and Senegalese rice were 7600, with no change. The price of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil increased by 60 to 8370 [2]. - **Spreads**: PK01 - PK04 spread was -48, up 30; PK04 - PK10 spread was -292, up 24; PK10 - PK01 spread was 340, down 54 [2]. Market Analysis - In the Northeast, Jilin Fuyu 308 common peanuts were 4.35 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin, and Liaoning Changtu were 4.3 yuan/jin, stable. In Henan, Baisha common peanuts were 3.5 - 3.7 yuan/jin, stable. Shandong Junan was 3.7 yuan/jin, stable. Imported peanut prices were also stable. Peanut oil prices were stable, and Rizhao soybean meal was stronger, with peanut meal also expected to be strong in the short - term [4][6]. Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: Try short - term long on 05 peanuts as 01 and 05 peanuts are oscillating at low levels [9]. - **Calendar Spread**: Stay on the sidelines [10]. - **Options**: Hold the sold pk601 - P - 7600 [11].

Report Overview - Report Date: November 10, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - After the Sino - US agreement, domestic soybean meal has returned to the CBOT soybean cost - pricing model, and the price transmission chain between China and the US has been re - established. Due to cost increases and low crushing profits, the support at the bottom of soybean meal is relatively strong. In the context of strong policy uncertainty, treat soybean meal with short - term cautious optimism. The risk lies in the collapse of the cost increase expectation caused by China's small - scale purchase of US soybeans later [6] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Trading Suggestions - **Market Data**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3070, the opening price was 3065, the highest price was 3070, the lowest price was 3034, the closing price was 3058, down 12 or - 0.39%, with a trading volume of 951,916 and an open interest of 1,577,123, an increase of 8,927. Similar data is provided for the 2603 and 2605 contracts [6] - **International Market**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market declined, with the main contract at 1110 cents. After the Sino - US agreement in late October, the US expected China to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons per year for the next three years. However, with a 13% tariff on US soybean imports, it is more cost - effective for Chinese oil mills to import Brazilian soybeans, and it is difficult to achieve the purchase targets. The US government shutdown makes it impossible to verify China's purchase situation, and uncertainties are high [6] 3.2 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release several major agricultural reports in November, including the monthly supply - demand report. The reports were not released in October due to the government shutdown. The crop production report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report, originally scheduled for November 10, will be released on November 14 [7] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentine farmers started sowing soybeans for the 2025/26 season. Most farmland soil moisture is in the "optimal" state. The exchange expects Argentina to harvest 48.5 million tons of soybeans this year, and farmers have sown 4.4% of the expected 17.6 million hectares [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The data sources for various figures (such as soybean meal ex - factory price, basis of soybean meal 01 contract, 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate) are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14]

成文日期: 20251103 报告周期: 月报 研究品种:棕榈油 研究员：漆建华（从业资格号：F03099134；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017731) 棕榈油期货月报 2.1 现货行情和基差数据 2.2 注册仓单 3 影响因素 3.1 供应端 3.2 需求端 目录 核心观点 1 期货市场 1.1 合约价格分析 1.2 品种行情分析 1.3 关联行情分析 2 现货市场、 4 行情展望 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 核心观点: 当月（202510）内外棕榈油期货市场皆下跌，现货随期货盘面 波动,印度和中国采购较差,且东南亚产地逐步进入减产季,马棕 油供需较弱或将继续打压价格,而印尼生物柴油政策或有支撑,需 关注政策转向。 1期货市场 1.1 合约价格分析 当月棕榈油期货 p2601 合约自国庆节后高开一路走弱,月内经 历日线十连阴，收于 8764 元/吨，月内跌 426 元/吨，跌幅 4.64%, 成交共 885 万手,月末持仓 39.3 万手,较上月末增仓 6.08 万手。 图：棕榈油 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For protein meal, it is expected to rise in the short - term following the import cost, with improved crushing margins, but in the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to be loose, so it is advisable to sell on rebounds [4]. - For palm oil, if the high production in Indonesia cannot be sustained, the inventory - building situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. Before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, it should be regarded as having a weak - oscillating trend, and turn to a long - position thinking if there are signals of production decline [6]. - For sugar, due to strengthened import controls on syrup and premixes, Zhengzhou sugar prices have rebounded, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [10]. - For cotton, the fundamentals are weak, and it is expected that the cotton price will continue to oscillate in the short - term [13]. - For eggs, in the short - term, they are expected to be in a strong - consolidation state, and in the medium - term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait to short [17]. - For pigs, in the long - term, the strategy is to short on rebounds, currently, the reverse spread is the first - choice strategy, followed by shorting after rebounds [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Protein Meal Market Information - Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Brazilian soybean premiums fell last week. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable over the weekend, with the East China price at 2,990 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal trading was weak, but pick - up was good. Feed enterprise inventory days decreased by 0.26 days to 7.75 days. MYSTEEL expects this week's domestic soybean crushing volume to be 2.1579 million tons, compared with 1.8057 million tons last week. In the next two weeks, rainfall in major Brazilian planting areas will be at a neutral level, and soybean planting may proceed normally. China's announcement of resuming the soybean export qualifications of several institutions such as CHS and the import qualification of US logs on Friday led to optimistic expectations for US soybean demand, causing the CBOT soybean market to rebound [3]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of import cost, although there are signals of China importing US soybeans, the rise in US soybean prices may be offset by the decline in Brazilian premiums, so the import cost will mainly oscillate. Domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, and soybean meal inventory is large, putting pressure on crushing margins. However, as it gradually enters the destocking season, there is some support. It is expected that soybean meal will rise in the short - term following the import cost, with improved crushing margins, which will stimulate vessel bookings. In the medium - term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds [4]. Fats and Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data show that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 5.55% in October and 6.8% in the first 5 days of November. The US Department of Agriculture will release monthly supply - demand forecasts on November 14, and MPOB will release the palm oil monthly report at 12:30 on November 10. Last Friday, domestic fats and oils oscillated weakly, and the overall commodity market corrected. Palm oil prices are still constrained by the high production in Malaysia and Indonesia recently, and no signal of production decline has been seen. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. Strategy Viewpoints - The unexpectedly high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market performance. The current situation of inventory - building due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production cannot be sustained, the destocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains its recent high - production record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to regard it as having a weak - oscillating trend before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, and turn to a long - position thinking if there are signals of production decline [6]. Sugar Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,457 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5,690 - 5,730 yuan/ton, up 10 - 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5,530 - 5,580 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream price range of processing sugar mills was 5,790 - 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 233 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 4.205 million tons of sugar in October, a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. As of October in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar exports were 21.95 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.27%. Brazil's Conab estimated that the sugarcane output in the central - southern region in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season would be 607.38 million tons, lower than the previous estimate of 609.76 million tons. Sugar production is expected to be 41.34 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 40.64 million tons. India's ISMA estimated that the total sugar production (before deducting the amount used for ethanol production) in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season would be 34.35 million tons; after deducting the estimated 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production, the net sugar production is expected to be 30.95 million tons [9]. Strategy Viewpoints - Recently, due to strengthened import controls on syrup and premixes, Zhengzhou sugar prices have rebounded, but the external market is still very weak. Since August this year, due to a significant year - on - year increase in the proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has exceeded that of last year, leading to a continuous decline in raw sugar prices. Currently, it is expected that the main northern hemisphere producing countries will increase production in the 2025/26 new sugar - crushing season, and the upward space for raw sugar is limited. As a result, the import profit has reached a five - year high. It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [10]. Cotton Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the January contract was 13,580 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,859 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1,279 yuan/ton. As of the week of November 7, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week, 6.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 8.64 percentage points lower than the five - year average of 74.04%. On November 6, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.26 yuan/kg, and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.98 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Fundamentally, demand is weak this year, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. In the new year, there is a large domestic harvest, and the pressure of selling for hedging is high. Recently, the new cotton purchase price has risen slightly, driving the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the cotton price will continue to oscillate in the short - term [13]. Eggs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices showed a mixed trend of rising, falling, and remaining stable, with overall small fluctuations. The large - sized eggs in Heishan remained unchanged at 2.9 yuan/jin, and the small - sized eggs in Guantao decreased by 0.04 yuan to 2.76 yuan/jin. With a decrease in newly - laid hens and continuous hen culling, the in - production hen inventory is gradually reaching its peak and declining. However, the overall supply scale is still large, which may limit the price increase space. On the demand side, since November, it has been frequently stimulated by factors such as stockpiling and restocking, and there is strong support at the bottom. Overall, egg prices will mainly oscillate strongly until the end of the inventory - building season [15]. Strategy Viewpoints - The expectation of the inventory reaching its peak and declining due to continuous low replenishment and high culling, combined with the increasing stockpiling sentiment after the temperature drop, has broken the previous downward spiral of egg prices. With the continuation of consumption themes such as the Double Eleven and pre - holiday restocking, the improved sentiment is expected to drive the market to build inventory. The futures market has reacted in advance to the price increase expectation, but with the futures price at a premium to the spot price, long - position traders are generally cautious, and the expectation of high - supply suppression still exists. It is expected to be in a strong - consolidation state in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait to short [17]. Pigs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices were mainly stable, with local small increases. The average price in Henan rose 0.17 yuan to 12.2 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan rose 0.04 yuan to 11.51 yuan/kg. The plan completion rate in the first ten days was good, and farmers had a mentality of holding up prices. However, after the pig price rose, slaughterhouses were resistant, which may cause a short - term reduction in volume. It is expected that today's pig prices will be mainly stable, with local small increases or decreases [19]. Strategy Viewpoints - This round of rebound is mainly driven by frozen product warehousing and increased second - fattening. The subsequent supply generated will, together with the basic supply and future pre - supply, jointly establish a bearish pattern of high - volume slaughter and large - sized pigs before the Spring Festival. Against the background of oversupply, the long - term direction of the futures market still points to shorting on rebounds. Currently, a game pattern of low prices and high positions has been formed. With limited short - term negative factors, the futures market may rebound. Considering the large near - term supply and the expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, the current strategy first recommends a reverse spread, followed by shorting after rebounds [20].

Report Information - Report Date: November 10, 2025 [1] - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Lack of drivers in the oil market, there may be a sentiment of "bad news is out" after the MPOB report [2][4] - **Soybean Oil**: U.S. soybeans have stabilized, and the price gap between soybean oil and palm oil is slowly narrowing [2][4] - **Soybean Meal**: Trade sentiment is slightly optimistic, with a sideways movement [2][13] - **Soybean No. 1**: Sideways movement [2][13] - **Corn**: Sideways movement [2][15] - **Sugar**: Weakening trend [2][19] - **Cotton**: Pay attention to the impact of external markets [2][24] - **Eggs**: In an adjustment phase [2][28] - **Hogs**: Inventory accumulation continues, waiting for the release of spot market contradictions [2][30] - **Peanuts**: Focus on the spot market [2][35] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil main contract closed at 8,660 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.82% change, and 8,634 yuan/ton at night with a -0.30% change; soybean oil main contract closed at 8,184 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.05% change, and 8,196 yuan/ton at night with a 0.15% change. The spot prices of palm oil (24 degrees) in Guangdong and first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong were 8,560 yuan/ton and 8,490 yuan/ton respectively [5] - **News**: From November 1 - 5, palm oil yield in the Malay Peninsula increased by 6.80% compared to the previous period. The FAO vegetable oil price index in October rose to the highest level since July 2022 [6][8] Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1 - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean No. 1 2601 contract closed at 4,118 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.56% change, and 4,118 yuan/ton at night with a -0.17% change; DCE soybean meal 2601 contract closed at 3,058 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.39% change, and 3,046 yuan/ton at night with a -0.16% change [12] - **News**: On November 7, CBOT soybeans rebounded due to bargain - hunting. China will resume the qualification of three U.S. companies to export soybeans to China. As of now, Argentina's soybean sowing progress is 4.4%, 4 percentage points behind the same period last year [12][14] Corn - **Fundamentals**: C2601 contract closed at 2,149 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.33% change, and 2,151 yuan/ton at night with a 0.09% change; C2603 contract closed at 2,177 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.28% change, and 2,178 yuan/ton at night with a 0.05% change [16] - **News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices remained stable, while prices in the northeast deep - processing sector fluctuated, and prices in the north China region slightly declined [17] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: Raw sugar price was 14.13 cents/pound, mainstream spot price was 5,760 yuan/ton, and futures main contract price was 5,457 yuan/ton [19] - **News**: Brazil's sugar production in the first half of October increased by 1% year - on - year, and exports in October increased by 13% year - on - year. China's sugar imports in September were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons) [19] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601 contract closed at 13,580 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.18% change, and 13,575 yuan/ton at night with a -0.04% change; CY2601 contract closed at 19,850 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.10% change, and 19,820 yuan/ton at night with a -0.15% change [24] - **News**: Cotton spot transactions were concentrated on low - priced goods. Some regions' cotton transportation costs decreased slightly. The demand for different varieties of pure cotton yarn was differentiated [25] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg 2512 contract closed at 3,219 yuan/500 kg with a -0.09% change, and Egg 2601 contract closed at 3,488 yuan/500 kg with a 0.36% change [28] - **No additional significant news** Hogs - **Fundamentals**: Henan spot price was 11,980 yuan/ton, Sichuan spot price was 11,500 yuan/ton, and Guangdong spot price was 12,360 yuan/ton. The hog 2601 contract price was 11,940 yuan/ton [30] - **News**: The national feed production in September was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [31] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: PK601 contract closed at 7,754 yuan/ton with a -0.51% change, and PK603 contract closed at 7,790 yuan/ton with a -0.49% change [35] - **News**: In some regions, peanut prices were stable due to factors such as weather affecting the supply volume [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the trading volume of commodity options increased slightly, with only the trading volume of the precious metals sector decreasing. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle, and it is advisable to move short - option positions to far - month contracts in advance to avoid end - of - contract risks [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. Affected by the decline in iron ore futures prices, the implied volatility of black options has risen. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals. There is a lack of new macro - drivers, and the upward momentum of prices has been weakened. The implied volatility still has room to rise, and it is advisable to buy a bearish put spread portfolio to hedge against the downward market [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of commodity options increased slightly last week, with the precious metals sector being the only one with a decline in trading volume. Energy and chemical products such as short - fiber, PTA, methanol, glass, crude oil, caustic soda, soda ash, and bottle chips are about to expire on Wednesday. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. The implied volatility of black options has risen due to the decline in iron ore futures prices. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals [4]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The table shows the quantitative data of commodity options, including the flat - value volatility, 60 - day quantile, Skew, and 60 - day quantile of various varieties such as corn, soybean meal, and crude oil [12]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.54 Option Data of Each Variety - For each variety (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), the data includes the closing price, trading volume, open interest, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, flat - value volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew of the main contract, secondary - main contract, and all contracts [13][14][15] etc.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week (11.03 - 11.07), US soybean futures prices fluctuated due to trade sentiment. Domestic soybean meal and soybean No.1 futures prices showed a strong - side oscillation. Next week (11.10 - 11.14), Dalian soybean meal and soybean No.1 futures prices are expected to oscillate, with attention on trade sentiment and the USDA report [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Soybean Market - **US situation**: The US government shutdown continued, and the export sales report was suspended [1]. - **Brazil situation**: - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased week - on - week, while the CNF premium and the average crushing profit decreased week - on - week [1][8][11]. - As of the week of October 30, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 47%, slower than the previous week (36%) and last year's same period (about 54%) [1][8]. - According to the November 7 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (November 8 - 21), the precipitation and temperature in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be basically normal, while in Argentina, the precipitation will be less and the temperature will be "initially low and then gradually return to normal" [1]. Domestic Soybean Meal - **Futures**: The main m2601 contract of soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.22% in the week of November 7, possibly due to doubts about China's procurement scale of US soybeans [1]. - **Spot**: - The trading volume and提货 volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of November 7, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 90,000 tons (compared with about 110,000 tons in the previous week), and the average daily提货 volume of major oil mills was about 180,000 tons (compared with about 196,000 tons in the previous week) [2]. - The basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of November 7, the weekly average basis was about 0 yuan/ton (compared with about - 0.2 yuan/ton in the previous week) [2]. - The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of October 31, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 1.02 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of about 16% [2]. - The soybean crushing volume decreased week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week of November 7, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 1.81 million tons (compared with 2.25 million tons in the previous week), and the operating rate was about 50%. Next week (November 8 - 14), the crushing volume is expected to be about 2.16 million tons, and the operating rate will be 59% [2][3]. Domestic Soybean No.1 - **Futures**: The main a2601 contract of soybean No.1 had a weekly increase of 0.39% in the week of November 7, also affected by trade sentiment [1]. - **Spot**: - The soybean price was stable with a slight upward trend. In some northeastern regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 3,940 - 4,040 yuan/ton, up 0 - 60 yuan/ton from the previous week; in some inland regions, it was in the range of 4,800 - 5,040 yuan/ton, up 100 - 180 yuan/ton; in the northern sales areas, the selling price of edible soybeans was in the range of 4,440 - 4,660 yuan/ton, up 20 - 40 yuan/ton [4]. - The state - reserve purchase started, and the purchase prices for some protein standards were slightly higher than the market price, which was a positive factor [4]. - In the early part of the week (before the storage policy was announced), farmers' hoarding mentality weakened, and traders were on the sidelines. In the later part of the week (after the storage policy was announced and the futures trend was strong), some trading entities' purchase mentality became positive again, while farmers continued to hoard [4]. - The demand in the northern sales areas was fair, while the southern market was flat. The sales of northeastern soybeans in the northern market were okay due to the decrease in temperature and the increase in vegetable prices, while the terminal demand for soybean products in the southern market was weak, and downstream markets purchased as needed [4].

Core Insights - CBOT corn futures decreased by 0.47% to $4.2675 per bushel, with a cumulative decline of 1.10% for the week [1] - CBOT wheat futures fell by 1.59% to $5.27 per bushel, resulting in a weekly drop of 1.17% [1] - CBOT soybean futures increased by 0.95% to $11.1725 per bushel, with a slight weekly gain of 0.27% [1] - Soymeal futures rose by 1.38%, but experienced a cumulative weekly decline of 1.46% [1] - Soy oil futures increased by 0.57%, achieving a weekly gain of 1.95% [1] - CBOT lean hog futures saw a cumulative decline of 2.03% [1] - Live cattle futures dropped by 3.71% cumulatively [1] - Feeder cattle futures experienced a cumulative decline of 3.65% [1]

Market Review - The main corn futures contract rose by 0.75% to 2154 CNY/ton in the last trading session [1] Fundamental Summary - As of November 7, the U.S. corn import CIF price was 263 USD, down 3 USD from the previous day, with an import cost of 2161 CNY, a decrease of 20 CNY [2] - After tariffs, the import cost price was 2671 CNY, down 25 CNY from the previous day [2] - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) forecasts that Brazil's corn exports in November will reach 5.57 million tons, up from 4.92 million tons year-on-year [2] - The Siga-MS project, in collaboration with the state government and the Mato Grosso do Sul Soybean and Corn Growers Association, reported favorable weather conditions leading to a significant increase in corn yield for the 2024/25 second season, with yields rising from 67.05 bags per hectare to 108.4 bags per hectare, an increase of 61.7% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures noted that previous bullish sentiment has been digested, leading to a retreat in U.S. corn prices. Domestic new grain supply is slightly increasing, with stable corn spot prices and a strong short-term market performance. However, in the medium to long term, abundant new season corn production is expected to keep prices low [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures observed that the increase in new corn supply from Northeast China is slowing, with prices remaining stable to slightly strong. Increased supply from Shandong was noted, with 1117 vehicles remaining for deep processing in the morning. The potential easing of U.S.-China relations and the reduction of tariffs on U.S. corn imports to 11% within quotas and 75% outside quotas are significant developments [3] - The future dynamics of new grain listings in Northeast China are under observation, with a cautious approach towards weak price fluctuations until a clear turning point is confirmed [3]