Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings and Core Views - The investment ratings for various futures varieties are as follows: soybean meal - short - term consolidation; rapeseed meal - short - term rebound; palm oil - short - term consolidation; soybean oil - short - term oscillation; rapeseed oil - range oscillation; cotton - oscillation with an upward bias; red dates - weak operation; live pigs - rebound and short - sell [1] - The core view for soybean meal is that although the Sino - US soybean purchase has started, the poor US soybean export data is bearish for the US market sentiment. The improved rainfall in South America means there is a lack of bullish drivers. The domestic soybean meal inventory has improved on a week - on - week basis but is still high year - on - year. Supply in December is expected to be sufficient, and the spot price is relatively resistant to decline. It is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating market [1][4] - For rapeseed meal, the coastal oil mills have zero inventory and zero crushing of rapeseed, and low imports. However, the port inventory is still high year - on - year, and the spot is reducing inventory by lowering prices. There is no significant change in fundamentals expected. It follows the trend of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the follow - up progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1][7] - Regarding palm oil, Malaysia's palm oil export data in the first 15 days of this month decreased month - on - month. The government's expectation of inventory accumulation in December is bearish for market sentiment. Due to the expected entry into the production - reduction season in Southeast Asia, short - selling operations should be treated with caution. Attention should be paid to short - long opportunities after the adjustment stabilizes, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating in December [1][9] - For soybean oil, the domestic soybean oil inventory has slightly decreased month - on - month but is still higher than the five - year average. The improved South American weather and the lack of positive data from the palm oil side lead to a bearish adjustment. Attention should be paid to the previous low - level technical support, as well as the South American weather and the progress of the US biodiesel policy [1] - In the case of rapeseed oil, the current zero - start of coastal oil mills, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November, along with the continuous decline in port inventory. However, the diversification of imports such as Australian and Russian rapeseed, as well as the global and Canadian rapeseed harvests, may limit the upside space of prices. It is operating weakly, and attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the follow - up progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1] - For cotton, the US cotton harvest is nearing the end, and Brazil has started the new - season planting. The proportion of weather - related trading in the market is gradually increasing. The current price is not high, and the ICE market is expected to oscillate at the bottom. In China, more than half of the new cotton has been inspected, but the sales progress has significantly slowed down. There is a need to be vigilant against short - term callback risks. In operation, it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to short - long opportunities after the callback and the long - term moderate recovery opportunities under the supply narrative [1][13] - Regarding red dates, at the end of the acquisition, the spot price increase has slowed down the downward trend. With the peak of new product listing and the arrival of the consumption peak season, the market volatility increases. The high inventory still exerts significant pressure on the price rebound. In a situation of loose supply and demand, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. On the disk, most of the premium caused by speculation of a large - scale reduction in new - season red dates since early June has been gradually squeezed out. The short - selling trend on the disk has slowed down and is approaching the spot cost. In a cooling market, attention should be paid to short - term rebound opportunities at the bottom [1][17] - For live pigs, as the Winter Solstice approaches, the concentrated release of live pig slaughter is expected. Although the demand indicators such as fresh sales and slaughter have improved, the increase in supply is likely to exceed the increase in demand, so the short - term upward driving force of pig prices is limited. With the late Spring Festival this year and the increase in the second - fattening of pigs, even if the Winter Solstice expectations are disappointed, the inventory in December is difficult to clear effectively, and the price will still be under pressure in January. For contracts, the 01 contract is only 12 trading days away from the delivery month, and it is likely to oscillate weakly under the delivery logic. For the 03 contract, in the absence of an unexpected spread of diseases, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the rebound. For the 0911 contracts, due to the divergence between the reduction expectation and capacity reduction, short - long positions can be taken at low prices for now [1][20] Group 2: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - As of December 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.162 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 208,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.3615 million tons. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.3948 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 239,600 tons (3.35% increase) and a year - on - year increase of 1.3807 million tons (22.96% increase). The soybean meal inventory was 1.0969 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,000 tons (5.59% decrease) and a year - on - year increase of 456,700 tons (71.34% increase). The physical inventory days of soybean meal for 50 feed enterprises in the main regions of the country was 9.13 days, an increase of 0.64 days from the previous period and 1.05 days from the same period last year [3] - The current oil mill operating rate remains at a medium - to - high level of about 59%. The soybean meal inventory has increased significantly year - on - year, and the oil mills are pushing for提货. The downstream has high basis costs for purchases from December to January and is showing resistance to price drops [3] - The futures price (main contract daily closing) of soybean meal is 2,777 yuan/ton, a 0.69% increase from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3,154.57 yuan/ton, a 0.01% increase from the previous day. The soybean crushing profit has a national average of - 63.4304 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.38 yuan from the previous day. The basis of different contracts has also changed [2] Rapeseed Meal - As of December 12, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 tons, and the unexecuted contracts were 0 tons, all remaining the same as the previous week [7] - The rapeseed meal market is full of a wait - and - see attitude. The market players are generally cautious in taking goods. The current market is oscillating, and the future trend is unclear. Downstream enterprises are mainly focused on risk control and replenishing inventory as needed, while the trading side is taking small quantities and turning over flexibly [7] - The futures price (main contract daily closing) of rapeseed meal is 2,359 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2,497.89 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decrease from the previous day. The rapeseed spot crushing profit has decreased significantly [5] Palm Oil - As of December 12, 2025 (week 50), the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 652,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons (4.53% decrease) and a year - on - year increase of 113,500 tons (21.05% increase) [9] - From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 2.55% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month. India's palm oil imports in November were 632,300 tons, a 4.97% increase from October. Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 were 613,172 tons, a 15.89% decrease from the same period last month [9] - The futures price (main contract daily closing) of palm oil is 8,410 yuan/ton, a 0.97% decrease from the previous day. The national average aggregated price is 8,488 yuan/ton, a 1.34% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume has changed, and the inventory has decreased [8] Cotton - Internationally, in the US, the cotton harvest is ending, and over 1.5 million tons of new cotton have been inspected. In India, the daily new cotton listing volume is between 16,000 - 20,000 tons, and nearly 42,500 tons have been purchased under the MSP, but rainfall in late November in the south and central regions was unfavorable for MSP purchases. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and non - main producing areas have started sowing 2026 new cotton, with the main producing areas expected to have heavy rainfall by the end of November [11] - Domestically, new cotton picking is basically completed, and the inspection volume has exceeded 5.4 million tons. The sales progress has significantly slowed down, with only a 0.2% increase to 41.6%. The national total production has been revised up by 260,000 tons to 7.68 million tons. The cost of new - season lint cotton is basically locked between 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton. In October, the imported cotton resource volume was 223,000 tons, almost the same as the previous month and 13,500 tons higher than the same period [12] - The futures prices of different cotton contracts have changed slightly. The spot price has increased slightly. The spinning profit of textile enterprises has increased, and the inventory has increased. The downstream demand has shown some changes [10] Red Dates - In terms of supply, the acquisition in some regions has ended, and the acquisition in other regions is nearing the end. The prices in the production areas are weakening. The inventory of 36 sample points has increased to 15,790 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,880 tons and 2,848 tons higher than the same period [16] - In terms of demand, the trading in the Cui'erzhuang market is mainly for new products, and the downstream's enthusiasm for taking goods has increased. The Ruyifang market has general demand [16] - The futures prices of different red date contracts have decreased. The spot prices of different varieties have remained basically unchanged. The basis and inventory have changed [14] Live Pigs - In the short term, in November, the breeding side actively slaughtered pigs, with fierce competition. The large - scale enterprises had high slaughter pressure, and their overall plan completion was not ideal. The planned slaughter in December has increased by 3.2%. Under pessimistic expectations, small - scale farmers, contract - farming companies, and previously second - fattened pigs are more willing to sell. The daily slaughter of large - scale enterprises has slightly decreased, but the large - scale slaughter pressure still limits the spot performance. The spread between standard and fat pigs has widened recently, and there has been some second - fattening entry behavior [19] - In the medium term, the number of newly - born piglets in November decreased by 76,200 to 5.7031 million. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows in October decreased to 39.9 million, and it is initially expected that the reduction target of 39.5 million tons will be basically completed by the end of the year, corresponding to high slaughter pressure at the end of the year [19] - The demand side is gradually turning into a situation of both supply and demand booming with the increase in pickling and enema activities in the southwest and other regions. However, the supply narrative may still be the dominant factor [19] - The futures prices of different live pig contracts have changed slightly. The slaughter price, basis, and various inventory and demand indicators have also changed [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Reports Red Dates - Red dates' "weak reality" of high inventory and weak consumption of old stock dominates, combined with the new - season production reduction being less than expected and the loosening of cost support. The recent sales area has more arrivals and less shipments, with no obvious peak - season features. The short - term trend is a wide - range low - level oscillation. Future focus should be on post - Spring Festival inventory levels, 2026 planting area, and early - stage weather forecasts [1]. Live Pigs - Spot prices are stable, and with the increasing pickling demand in the South, the downward support has strengthened. There is high uncertainty in the December - January market. On one hand, the recent increase in the epidemic may suppress the spot market; on the other hand, secondary fattening may support prices. Although the monthly slaughter volume is increasing month - on - month, it is lower than expected. The spot is expected to continue to bottom out. In a situation of loose supply and demand, the futures price has difficulty rising continuously. Attention should be paid to the epidemic situation and its potential to cause early slaughter and over - consume post - holiday supply [4]. Meal Products - The U.S. soybeans lack trading highlights, and China's demand has been fully traded. South American new - season soybeans are being planted smoothly with good hydrothermal conditions and a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Early - sown soybeans will be listed in January, continuously suppressing U.S. soybeans. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, and the space for speculating on supply gaps has narrowed. Recently, the market is speculating on the extension of soybean customs clearance time, and the auctions have had good results, supporting the 1 - 5 positive spread. In the short - term, there is a sentiment to hold up prices in the spot market, but the spot pressure remains. There is no driving force for a single - sided trend, and the room for the positive spread to continue to strengthen is limited. Attention should be paid to the risk of a decline [7]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the northeast, farmers have a sentiment of holding up prices, and the producing - area prices are stable. Traders are more willing to sell due to the decline in futures prices, leading to an increase in the supply at northern ports and a slight decline in prices. Attention should be paid to the continuity of arrivals at northern ports. In North China, farmers adjust their selling behavior according to price changes, and the number of arriving vehicles is acceptable, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises' inventory is increasing slowly and they purchase as needed; feed enterprises' demand is rising, and forward - order purchases are increasing. In the short - term, the increase in supply causes the futures price to weaken, but the increase is limited, and due to farmers' price - holding sentiment and the need of low - inventory enterprises to replenish inventory, the decline range is restricted. Attention should be paid to the selling rhythm and downstream inventory replenishment [8]. Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures market is in a volatile downward trend due to concerns about potential year - end inventory growth to 2.9 million tons and a slowdown in exports. Attention should be paid to whether it can stop falling and rebound after finding support around Friday. The overall view is that the near - term is weak and the long - term is strong. The domestic palm oil futures market is also in a volatile downward trend, with a short - term weakening trend and breaking through the previous low. Affected by the decline of Malaysian palm oil, it still has the pressure to further weaken and is looking for support in the 8,200 - 8,300 yuan range. - **Soybean Oil**: The U.S. EPA is expected to finalize the 2026 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) next year. Processors' enthusiasm for large - scale biodiesel production may decline, which may reduce the industrial consumption of U.S. soybean oil and drag down CBOT soybean oil. In China, the National Grain and Oil Trading Center planned to auction 513,800 tons of imported soybeans, with 323,100 tons actually sold at an average price of 3,852.08 yuan/ton and a transaction ratio of 62.88%. However, the released amount of soybeans is limited. As January approaches and the Spring Festival stocking is about to start, the factory's soybean oil inventory is expected to continue to decrease, which will support the basis quote. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The U.S. EPA's delay in finalizing the 2026 RVO has caused the U.S. soybean oil futures price to decline, dragging down the domestic vegetable oil market, including rapeseed oil. The market is still digesting the news of COFCO's purchase of Canadian rapeseed, increasing concerns about future supply pressure. The market sentiment is weak, and the rapeseed oil price has broken through the previous low. Attention should be paid to whether the 05 contract can find support at 9,000 yuan [12]. Sugar - The ICE raw sugar futures closed down because the Brazilian weather is favorable for the growth of the next - season sugarcane. Although the sugar production and cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region in December are much lower than last year, the expectation of a loose supply remains. As Brazil is approaching the end of the harvest season, it has little impact on the market. Overall, the loose supply outlook restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices, and the price is in a bearish pattern. In China, the sugar - making pace in the main producing areas is accelerating. Affected by the increasing supply, the futures price is weakening. Sugar - making groups have slightly lowered their prices, and the new sugar has entered the market. However, the market trading atmosphere is still tepid, and the spot trading is average. Currently lacking positive factors, the price has no power to rebound and is expected to maintain a weak trend [14]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures closed down due to weak exports and an expected increase in supply. The U.S. cotton export sales have decreased. Overall, U.S. cotton maintains a volatile market. In China, the market expects a decline in the next - year's planting area in Xinjiang, with an optimistic long - term outlook. However, the downstream industry is weak, with the inventory of finished products continuing to accumulate, and the profits and cash flow of spinning enterprises are deteriorating. But the overall pressure on the downstream industry is still acceptable, and spinning enterprises have a rigid demand for cotton, limiting the downside space of cotton prices. However, the constraints on cotton prices are increasing, and there is pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14,050 - 14,100 [17]. Eggs - Egg prices have been rising from a low level, leading to farmers' reluctance to sell and a continuous decrease in the slaughter of old hens. Based on previous chick - replenishment data, the number of newly - laying hens is decreasing, but the overall inventory improvement is not obvious. Coupled with the recent cooling being conducive to egg storage, the egg supply is still sufficient. There are not many positive factors in the market, and the sales in high - price areas are slow, causing prices to decline. In low - price areas, the expectation of price increases is rising, and the transaction has improved. The sales speed varies in different markets, and prices are adjusting stably. According to the latest survey, on December 16, 2025, the production - link inventory decreased by 1.05%, and the circulation - link inventory decreased by 2.24%. Traders are mainly selling goods, and the sales in some high - price areas are slightly slow. However, the market's expectation of price increases has stimulated farmers' reluctance to sell and terminal replenishment. Considering the sufficient supply, the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Red Dates Futures - **Futures Prices**: The prices of red dates 2601, 2605 (main contract), and 2609 all decreased, with declines of 1.62%, 0.66%, and 0.59% respectively. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 170%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.61%. - **Spot Prices**: The Cangzhou special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade spot prices were 9,670 yuan/ton, 8,600 yuan/ton, and 7,200 yuan/ton respectively, with the special - grade price decreasing by 0.92% [1]. - **Basis and Inventory**: The basis of Cangzhou special - grade and main contract decreased by 22.22%. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased by 22.09% [1]. Live Pigs - **Futures Prices**: The price of the main contract basis decreased by 31.03%. The prices of live pigs 2605 and 2603 increased by 0.21% and 0.40% respectively, and the 3 - 5 spread increased by 3.33%. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showed different trends. The sample - point daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.33%, and the weekly piglet price decreased by 2.94% [4]. Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The Jiangsu spot price increased by 0.32%, the M2605 futures price increased by 0.69%, and the basis decreased by 2.63%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping - date import - crushing profit decreased by 22.9%. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The Jiangsu spot price decreased by 0.83%, the RM2605 futures price increased by 0.77%, and the basis decreased by 48.10%. The Canadian 1 - month shipping - date import - crushing profit increased by 1.18%. - **Soybeans**: The prices of Harbin soybeans and Jiangsu imported soybeans remained unchanged. The futures prices of soybean - 1 and soybean - 2 main contracts decreased by 0.97% and 0.63% respectively [7]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The prices of corn 2601 and the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price decreased by 0.36% and 1.29% respectively. The basis decreased by 23.91%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 12.50%. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 0.44%, the basis increased by 14.29%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2.38% [8]. Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The Jiangsu first - grade spot price decreased by 0.47%, the Y2605 futures price decreased by 0.61%, and the basis increased by 3.05%. - **Palm Oil**: The Guangdong 24 - degree spot price decreased by 0.82%, the P2605 futures price decreased by 0.96%, and the basis increased by 20.69%. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Jiangsu third - grade spot price decreased by 2.23%, the OI605 futures price decreased by 1.33%, and the basis decreased by 21.59% [12]. Sugar - **Futures Prices**: The prices of sugar 2601 and 2605 decreased by 1.49% and 1.42% respectively. The ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.54%. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased by 0.37% and 0.66% respectively. The national sugar production and sales decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory decreased [14]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2601 decreased by 0.32% and 0.43% respectively. The ICE U.S. cotton main contract decreased by 1.25%. - **Spot Prices**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index 3128B increased by 0.56% and 0.46% respectively. The industrial inventory increased slightly, and the textile exports showed different trends [17]. Eggs - **Futures Prices**: The prices of egg 01 and 02 contracts decreased by 0.26% and 0.48% respectively. - **Spot Prices**: The egg - producing - area price decreased by 0.41%, the egg - chick price decreased by 1.75%, and the culled - hen price increased by 2.85% [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes various agricultural products including pulp, oils and fats, protein meals, corn/starch, live pigs, natural and synthetic rubbers, cotton, sugar, double gum paper, and logs, providing insights into their market trends, influencing factors, and future outlooks [1][5][6][7][8][11][12][15][16][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp - **View**: Futures fluctuate while spot prices continue to decline. The market has more positive factors, which will push up the bottom of futures price movements. It is expected that the low on December 1st will not be broken again. The upper pressure comes from weak demand, and the 05 contract should pay attention to the pressure in the 5650 - 5750 area [1][15]. - **Logic**: Positive drivers include rising US dollar - denominated prices of broad - leaf pulp, supply reduction expectations from mill shutdowns, potential for other mills to cut production, and relatively high actual demand. Negative factors are difficulties in cost transfer for downstream paper, seasonal decline in demand starting from January, and high hedging pressure on traders if downstream purchases remain weak [1][15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate and rise. Positive news raises the bottom, but the upper hedging pressure remains unchanged [2][15]. Oils and Fats - **View**: The market sentiment is still weak. Pay attention to whether the lower level can provide technical support. Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Logic**: Influenced by factors such as the overall selling in the agricultural product market, concerns about the slowdown of US soybean export demand, the expected high yield of South American soybeans, high domestic soybean inventory, and the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil exports [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate weakly. The market is facing a game of multiple factors, and the current sentiment is weak. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [5]. Protein Meals - **View**: The premium of state - reserve auctions has narrowed, and the two meals are oscillating at a low level [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, Brazilian soybean sowing is almost complete, and Argentina is accelerating the sale of new crops. US soybean is expected to oscillate. Domestically, short - term state - reserve soybean auction results, slow seasonal inventory reduction of soybean meal, medium - term purchase progress, uncertainty of Australian rapeseed imports, and long - term South American weather all affect the market [6]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal will all oscillate [6]. Corn/Starch - **View**: After the snow and rain, the supply in the production area continues to increase [7]. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are weakening steadily. Affected by news of regulatory reserve auctions and high - level resistance on the futures market, the market sentiment has turned, and the supply in the market has increased. It is expected that prices will first fall and then rise before the Spring Festival, and it is unlikely to break the previous low [7][8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. Short - term observation is recommended [7]. Live Pigs - **View**: Supply and demand remain loose, and pig prices are oscillating within a narrow range [8]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of large pigs from second - fattening is increasing. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs will continue to be excessive until April 2026. In the long term, sow production capacity is being reduced, and the supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand may increase after the snowfall, and the average slaughter weight has declined. The industry is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. In the near - term, prices are expected to be weak. In the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Pay attention to the reverse spread strategy [8]. Natural Rubber - **View**: Maintain a wide - range intraday oscillation [8]. - **Logic**: Currently, it is in a stage without a strong driver. Although the price has risen due to geopolitical conflicts and the overall commodity rebound, it mostly falls back within the day. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices support the market to some extent, but there is a risk of decline. The demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation without strong expectations or macro - level drive [8][9][10]. - **Outlook**: Due to limited fundamental variables, the price is expected to continue to oscillate, and there is unlikely to be a trend - based unilateral market [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The positive sentiment in the market is maintained [11]. - **Logic**: The BR futures market is oscillating strongly, and its position is increasing. It is mainly due to the marginal improvement of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price of BR. The butadiene price is oscillating, and the demand side has certain support. Although there is an expectation of import arrivals, the current good trading situation supports the market [11]. - **Outlook**: Temporarily treat the market as oscillating strongly, but the sustainability of the upward trend is questionable [11]. Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices have slightly declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability [12]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, the output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and the supply is increasing. On the demand side, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has decreased. The commercial inventory is increasing, but the inventory accumulation speed is lower than expected, indicating good consumption. The market is concerned about the potential reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang next year, which has pushed up the price in the short term. However, the actual upward - driving force of the fundamentals is limited [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price is pushed up by sentiment, and there is a risk of correction. In the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. It is advisable to buy on dips [12]. Sugar - **View**: The supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the decline of sugar prices has widened [12]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, the global sugar supply is expected to change from tight to loose in the 25/26 crushing season. The production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase, and the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. The production of Brazilian sugar has passed its peak, and the market focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere. With the increase in supply, the pressure on sugar prices is increasing [12][14]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season [12][14]. Double Gum Paper - **View**: Publishers'提货 continues, and the inventory pressure on paper enterprises has been alleviated [16]. - **Logic**: Recently, the publication orders have started to be picked up, which has alleviated the inventory pressure of some paper enterprises. However, the social demand has not improved significantly, and distributors mainly maintain stable prices. The market is facing factors such as stable prices of large - scale paper enterprises, rational stocking by distributors, different trends of different types of double - gum paper, and the divergence between pulp and paper prices. In the future, the supply pressure still exists, and paper enterprises may adjust the market supply and demand through price cuts or production cuts [16]. - **Outlook**: Supported by publishers'提货 and paper enterprises' costs, but the medium - term demand is expected to be weak. The price of double - gum paper will run weakly and stably [16][17]. Logs - **View**: The valuation is low, and the market rebounds with reduced positions [19]. - **Logic**: The spot price has weakened, which has affected the market sentiment. However, the near - month contract has reached a low - valuation area and has certain support. Overseas shipments are expected to decrease from December to January, and the domestic demand is weak. The 01 contract has a certain profit in buying for delivery, and the 03 contract has more game points. Considering the low overall valuation, hold the 1 - 3 reverse spread and pay attention to the opportunity of buying the 03 contract at a low price [19]. - **Outlook**: The loose pattern of the log market continues. The near - month contract lacks game value. Pay attention to the reverse spread or the opportunity of buying the far - month contract at a low price [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soybeans and soybean meal are expected to trade in a range as the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but they are entering the destocking season, providing some support [2][3]. - For oils, the recent data is bearish. Although palm oil production has exceeded expectations this year, the situation of inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [5][7]. - Regarding sugar, the estimated increase in sugar production in major producing countries in the new crushing season has led to a shift from a shortage to a surplus in the global supply - demand relationship. International sugar prices may not improve much until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [10][11]. - In the case of cotton, the probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low. Although there is some demand and the previous price decline has digested the bearish news of a domestic bumper harvest, the news of subsidy policy adjustment is unconfirmed and there is hedging pressure [13][14]. - For eggs, the near - term contracts are mainly in a process of squeezing the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term contracts have the expectation of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [18]. - As for pigs, the spot market is warming up, but the near - term contracts' rebound space is limited due to high supply. It is advisable to sell after the consumption rebound. The long - term contracts have a low valuation and the theme of capacity reduction, so attention should be paid to the lower support [20][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans closed down. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell slightly on Tuesday, with low trading volume but good pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.0445 million tons, slightly higher than last week. Last week, domestic soybeans and soybean meal both destocked, but the inventory is still high year - on - year. Brazilian and Argentine main producing areas are expected to have more rainfall, and the global soybeans' annual inventory - to - sales ratio is still high [2]. - **Strategy**: The bottom of soybean import costs may have appeared, but the upward space needs greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but they are entering the destocking season. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [3]. Oils - **Market Information**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.87% in the first ten days of December and decreased by 2.97% in the first 15 days. Ship - shipping agency data indicates a 15.89% - 16.37% decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 15 days of December. As of November 30, NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory reached a seven - month high. On Tuesday, domestic oils fell due to poor palm oil export data and high - frequency production [5]. - **Strategy**: This year's palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, and poor export data has suppressed the market. However, the situation of inventory accumulation may reverse. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [6][7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell. Spot sugar prices in various regions also declined. India's sugar production has increased year - on - year, and Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 crushing season but may decrease in the 2026/27 season. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports has decreased [9][10]. - **Strategy**: The estimated increase in sugar production in major producing countries in the new crushing season has led to a shift from a shortage to a surplus in the global supply - demand relationship. International sugar prices may not improve much until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices first rose and then fell. The spot price index increased, and the basis widened. As of December 12, the spinning mill's operating rate remained flat week - on - week, and the national commercial cotton inventory increased year - on - year. The global cotton production estimate for the 2025/26 year has been slightly adjusted [13]. - **Strategy**: The probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low. Although there is some demand and the previous price decline has digested the bearish news of a domestic bumper harvest, the news of subsidy policy adjustment is unconfirmed and there is hedging pressure [14]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, most egg prices in the country were stable, with a few areas having narrow adjustments. Supply was stable, market sales improved slightly, and demand increased. Short - term egg prices are expected to be mostly stable, with a few areas showing a slight upward trend [16][17]. - **Strategy**: The near - term contracts are mainly in a process of squeezing the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term contracts have the expectation of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices fluctuated slightly. Most farmers may still be on the sidelines, and the price trend varies by region [20]. - **Strategy**: The spot market is warming up, but the near - term contracts' rebound space is limited due to high supply. It is advisable to sell after the consumption rebound. The long - term contracts have a low valuation and the theme of capacity reduction, so attention should be paid to the lower support [21].

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 1.10%, closing at 29.0113 points, indicating a downward trend in grain prices [1] Grain Market Summary - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.85%, settling at $4.36 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 2.10%, closing at $5.09 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures decreased by 0.83%, ending at $10.7225 per bushel [1] - Soymeal futures slightly declined by 0.05%, while soybean oil futures saw a more significant drop of 2.05% [1] Livestock Market Summary - CBOT lean hog futures increased by 0.95% [1] - Live cattle futures rose by 0.17% [1] - Feeder cattle futures gained 0.81% [1]

今天郑棉有所回调,本周的上涨主要受到传言的犹动。棉花现货主流销售基差总体持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅 度较大,但商业库存同比基本持平,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季,但需求总体持 稳，关注春节前需求能否出现小旺季。截至11月底，全国棉花商业库存为468.36万吨，环比增加175.3万吨，同 比增加1万吨。截至12月11号，国内棉花累积加工量为579.4万吨，同比增加83.6万吨。纺企对于原料需求仍存 韧性,纺企成品库存不高,下游纺企现金流尚可。近期郑棉表现震荡偏强,产业可以关注套保机会,操作上多 单谨慎持有。 【白糖】 隔夜美糖弱势运行。巴西方面，11月上半月巴西中南部的生产数据偏中性。甘蔗压榨量有所增加，制糖比例同比下降，产糖量 同比继续增加。本榨季的生产已经进入尾声，累积产糖量维持高位。印度方面，今年生产进度较快，产量同比增加。国内方 面,郑糖增仓下跌。生产方面,11月广西生产进度偏慢，产糖量同比减少,关注后续生产情况。从产量预期来看,三季度广西 降雨情况较好，降雨量较往年偏多。从遥感数据来看，广西甘蔗植被指数同比有所增加。25/26榨季广西的食糖产量预期相对较 好,关注后续生产情况。综合 ...

Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral to bullish, suggesting to focus on opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips [3] Core View - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated upwards yesterday, breaking through the 14,000 integer mark. Globally, the USDA made minor adjustments to the global cotton supply and demand data this month, with both production and demand decreasing in the 2025/26 season and a slight increase in ending stocks. In the short term, ICE U.S. cotton will remain under pressure, but in the medium to long term, it is in a low - valuation range with limited further downside. Domestically, cotton production continues to increase in the 2025/26 season. Short - term supply is abundant, but the resistance to hedging on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the cotton price downside is also limited [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 14,000 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,884 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,060 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. In India, the cotton listing volume on December 12, 2025/26 was about 42,000 tons of lint, and the CCI auctioned about 75,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment to global cotton supply and demand data in the 25/26 season was small, with both production and demand decreasing and ending stocks slightly increasing. The U.S. cotton production increased slightly, and the inventory pressure increased. The short - term ICE U.S. cotton is under pressure, and the upward drive is unclear. Domestic: Cotton production continues to increase in the 25/26 season. Short - term supply is abundant, but the resistance to hedging on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the cotton price downside is limited [2] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Focus on opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [7] Core View - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to be weak yesterday, hitting a new low in the night session. The global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 2025/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - to - medium - term international sugar price rebound space is limited. The fundamental driving force of Zhengzhou sugar is downward, but the short - term decline space is also limited [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract yesterday was 5207 yuan/ton, down 113 yuan/ton or 2.12% from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5295 yuan/ton, unchanged. As of December 15, 2025/26, 479 sugar mills in India were in operation, 6 more than the same period last year, and the sugar production was 7.79 million tons, an increase of 1.72 million tons or 28.34% [4] Market Analysis - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to be weak, hitting a new low. The short - term support for the raw sugar futures price to stop falling and rebound is limited by the unchanged global sugar supply surplus pattern. The fundamental driving force of Zhengzhou sugar is downward, but the short - term decline space is limited [5] Strategy - Neutral. Pay attention to the impact of the capital side on the futures market, and expect low - level consolidation [7] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [9] Core View - The price of pulp futures oscillated and closed higher yesterday. Overseas supply is disturbed, and the demand in Europe has improved to some extent. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high, but the recent port inventory has declined significantly, and the future expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp price to stabilize [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract yesterday was 5572 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 0.69% from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5565 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price was mainly stable, with individual prices declining [7] Market Analysis - Overseas, there are continuous news of pulp mill shutdowns for maintenance, and the European demand has improved. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, the paper industry is in a state of overcapacity, and the port inventory is at a historical high, but the recent port inventory has declined, and the future expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp price [8] Strategy - Neutral. The previous bearish factors have been digested, and the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently, but the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand situation will limit the upward space. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the futures market [9]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][5] 2. Report's Core View - The current supply - demand pattern of soybean meal remains unchanged. With high oil mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal, and no sudden news to stimulate the market after policy stabilization, the overall soybean meal price is mainly in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [2] - In the domestic corn market, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is relatively fast, but the effective supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell. As the price reaches a relatively high level and holidays approach, the sales progress may accelerate. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and feed enterprises' demand is rigid while traders are eager to store high - quality grain [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The soybean meal 2605 contract closed at 2758 yuan/ton yesterday, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.43%) from the previous day. The rapeseed meal 2605 contract closed at 2341 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.26%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was M05 + 332, down 8. In Jiangsu, it was 3050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the basis was M05 + 292, up 2. In Guangdong, it was 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was M05 + 302, up 12. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was RM05 + 219, up 6 [1] - Market Information: As of December 11, the planting rate of the 2025/26 - season soybeans in Argentina was 58%, up from 49% last week and lower than 66% in the same period last year [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The current supply - demand situation has not changed. High oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation, along with stable policies and no sudden news, lead to a volatile soybean meal price. High US soybean import costs require attention to US soybean imports and South American weather [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - The strategy for soybean meal is neutral [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The corn 2601 contract closed at 2228 yuan/ton yesterday, down 14 yuan/ton (- 0.62%) from the previous day. The corn starch 2511 contract closed at 2513 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.51%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot basis was C01 + 97, up 24. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was CS01 + 137, up 13 [3] - Market Information: As of December 10, the sowing progress of the 2025/26 - season corn in Argentina was 59.2%, up from 44% a week ago, and the expected output may reach a record 61 million tons. The wheat harvest progress in Argentina was 60.2%, up 15 percentage points week - on - week [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - In the domestic market, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell makes the effective supply tight. As prices rise and holidays approach, sales may speed up. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and feed demand is rigid while traders want to store high - quality grain [4] 3.2.3 Strategy - The strategy for corn is neutral [5]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但美豆出口数据不佳，利空美盘市场情绪。南美天气降雨改善， 市场缺乏利多驱动。本周国内最新及豆粕库存环比减少改善，但同比偏高，12 月供 | | 豆粕 | 短线偏弱 | | | ★ | | 应预计暂充足，库存环比下降利多有限。豆粕预计短线暂维持偏弱行情。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，消费淡季下现 | | 菜粕 | | 货降价去库。基本面暂无大波动预期。进口多元化逐步替代中加进口矛盾问题，暂 | | ★ | 短线偏弱 | 无强驱动，以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注澳籽进口政策及中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 马棕榈油本月前 10 日产量环比维持增加，利空市场情绪打压期价下跌。关注马棕 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 榈油后续数据情况。由于 12 月东南亚逐步进入减产的预期，也将限制棕榈油持续 | | | | 调整空间，关注调整后企稳短多机会。12 月预计偏震荡为主。 | | 豆油 | | 国内豆油库存环比略下降，但仍高于五年同期。南美天气改善，棕榈油端数据 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The price of US soybeans slightly declined, and DCE soybean meal may fluctuate. The spot price of DCE soybeans is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price is adjusting and fluctuating [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE soybean 2601 closed at 4130 yuan/ton during the day session, down 21 yuan (-0.51%), and 4084 yuan/ton during the night session, down 58 yuan (-1.40%) - DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2758 yuan/ton during the day session, down 15 yuan (-0.54%), and 2748 yuan/ton during the night session, down 14 yuan (-0.51%) - CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1073 cents/bushel, down 3.25 cents (-0.30%) - CBOT soybean meal 01 closed at 303.9 dollars/short - ton, up 1.9 dollars (+0.63%) [1] Spot - In Shandong, the price of 43% soybean meal is 3060 - 3160 yuan/ton. The basis for different months has different changes compared to the previous day - In East China, the price is 3050 - 3130 yuan/ton, and the basis for different months also has corresponding changes - In South China, the price is 3100 - 3190 yuan/ton, with specific basis changes for different periods [1] Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.15 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 7.6 million tons on the day before the previous trading day. The inventory of the week before the previous trading day was 104.55 million tons, and the inventory of the previous trading week is not available [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 15, CBOT soybean futures mostly declined. The market is worried about the slow export speed of US soybeans, and the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans has led to continued selling by traders - Private exporters reported selling 13.6 million tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 season. Since October 30, the total sales of US soybeans to China confirmed by the USDA through daily export bulletins have reached 351.6 million tons - The NOPA's member companies crushed 216.04 million bushels of soybeans in November, a 5.1% decrease from the record - high in October but an 11.83% increase from the same period last year, setting a new high for the same period - As of last Thursday, the soybean planting in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 97% complete [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybeans is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the main - contract futures prices during the day session on the report day [3]