中国基金报记者 安曼 比特币再度破位！ （原标题：直线跳水！） 【导读】比特币直线跳水，跌破95000美元 11月16日早间，比特币直线跳水，盘中从10万美元附近直线跌破95000美元大关。 虽然截至发稿，比特币的跌幅收窄，但是Coinglass数据显示，过去24小时，加密货币市场接近10万人被 爆仓。 此前，摩根士丹利投资策略师Denny Galindo也曾表示，比特币目前处于四年周期的"秋季"阶段，这是 投资者收获利润的好时机。他警告称，市场可能很快进入"冬季"，也就是价格下跌的阶段。 Galindo建议投资者在市场转冷前及时获利。近期比特币价格跌破关键技术指标365日移动均线，这被视 为熊市信号。同时，市场流动性来源如稳定币、ETF等资金流入已经趋于停滞。 特朗普家族财富大幅缩水 随着加密货币市场的动荡，一直以实际行动支持该市场的美国总统特朗普家族的财富也大幅缩水。 Wintermute OTC交易主管Jake Ostrovskis指出，比特币近期已承受大量现货抛压与企业对冲需求的压 力，在缺乏加密本身的利好叙事之时，其与传统资产的关联度迅速升高，成为当天行情下挫的重要推 力。 加密货币市场进入"熊市" ...

Core Insights - A significant development has emerged regarding the theft of approximately 127,000 bitcoins, valued at around $15 billion, which occurred four years ago. The recent report from the National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center indicates that the stolen bitcoins have remained dormant, suggesting the involvement of a state-level hacking organization rather than typical criminal behavior [1][4]. Group 1: Incident Overview - The bitcoins were originally owned by Chen Zhi, chairman of the Cambodian Prince Group, who is currently facing charges from the U.S. Department of Justice for telecom fraud and money laundering. The DOJ has announced the seizure of the 127,000 bitcoins, which are believed to be the stolen assets from the LuBian mining pool hack in December 2020 [1][4][13]. - The LuBian mining pool, linked to the Prince Group, suffered a major attack in December 2020, resulting in the theft of over 90% of its bitcoin holdings, totaling approximately 127,272 BTC, which aligns closely with the amount mentioned in the DOJ's indictment [4][6]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The report highlights that the stolen bitcoins were stored in non-custodial wallets, which are considered secure as they are not subject to freezing by legal orders. The private keys for these wallets were compromised due to a "pseudo-random number vulnerability," allowing hackers to execute the theft in under two hours [4][8]. - The bitcoins remained inactive until June 2024, when they were transferred to new addresses, which have since been marked as held by the U.S. government. This indicates a successful tracing of the stolen assets through blockchain analysis [6][8]. Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Implications - The DOJ's actions against Chen Zhi and the Prince Group have raised questions about the legality of the seizure process, as bitcoin is recognized as a legal asset in many jurisdictions. The legitimacy of the seizure's judicial support is under scrutiny [1][4]. - The case underscores the increasing scrutiny and regulatory measures surrounding cryptocurrencies, as the U.S. government is progressively incorporating digital currencies into its regulatory framework, which may limit the operational space for cryptocurrencies outside of regulation [16].

International News - President Trump emphasizes the importance of the U.S. becoming a leader in the cryptocurrency sector [1] - Ethereum's price surpasses $3200, with a daily increase of 2.86% [2] - Federal Reserve officials have not yet confirmed the financial disclosure status of former Fed Governor Kugar [3] Domestic News - Currently, there are no relevant domestic financial news updates [2]

与资金抄底科技股，以及黄金急跌后反弹相比，比特币是周五市场的一个明显例外：逆势下跌5%，创6个月新低，且已连续三周下跌。这一反差揭示了 比特币市场的异常处境：在与纳斯达克100指数保持0.8高度相关性的同时，比特币却呈现出"跟跌更大，跟涨更弱"的不对称特征。与此同时，巨鲸抛售 加剧，长期持有者集中出货等多重因素正在共同压制比特币。 科技股迎来抄底资金，黄金也在急跌后反弹，比特币却独自沉沦，"一蹶不振"。这背后到底发生了什么？此前风光无限的加密货币市场为何"惨不忍 睹"？ 周五（11月14日），美股市场出现戏剧性反转，在经历了开盘初期的恐慌性抛售后，资金抄底科技股，纳斯达克和标普500指数在触及关键技术支撑位 后强势反弹。而黄金在盘中最多狂泄超150美元之后，也反弹至4080美元附近，但比特币却成为明显的例外： 当日下跌5%，跌破94000美元关口，创 下6个月新低。 这是比特币连续第三周下跌，也是过去六周中的第五次下跌。更令人震惊的是， 自10月10日的闪崩以来，加密货币市场的冲击波至今未见减弱迹象 ——所有加密货币的总市值损失已超过1万亿美元。 周五市场走势堪称"冰火两重天"。 纳斯达克100指数和标普50 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rally, with Bitcoin surpassing $96,000, despite over 130,000 liquidations totaling $390 million in the past 24 hours. This follows a three-week decline where Bitcoin briefly fell below $95,000, contributing to a total market cap loss exceeding $1 trillion since October 10 [1]. Group 1: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin rose over 1% and returned above $96,000 [1] - Over 130,000 liquidations occurred in the cryptocurrency market, amounting to $390 million [1] - The total market cap of all cryptocurrencies has lost more than $1 trillion since October 10 [1] Group 2: Whale Activity and Selling Pressure - Significant selling pressure from "whales" and long-term holders has been identified as a key factor in Bitcoin's recent performance [1] - Long-term holders sold approximately 815,000 Bitcoins in the past 30 days, marking the highest selling level since early 2024 [1] - "Whale" wallets holding Bitcoin for over seven years are selling at a rate exceeding 1,000 Bitcoins per hour [1] Group 3: MicroStrategy's Position - Speculation regarding MicroStrategy potentially selling Bitcoin has increased, with on-chain fund movements raising concerns among market observers [2] - MicroStrategy's stock has dropped nearly 32% over the past month, with a market cap of $59 billion and Bitcoin holdings valued at $62.3 billion [2] - The company's co-founder, Michael Saylor, reiterated that their strategy is to continue buying Bitcoin, with pauses in announcements at the end of each fiscal quarter [2] Group 4: Economic Data and Federal Reserve Outlook - The U.S. government's "shutdown" has led to missing economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [2][3] - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Logan expressed that without clear evidence of faster inflation decline, she does not support another rate cut in December [2] - Concerns about inflation and labor market risks have made the Federal Reserve cautious about future rate cuts [3]

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a decline for the third consecutive week, with Bitcoin dropping below $95,000 and a total market capitalization loss exceeding $1 trillion since October 10 [4] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 130,000 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $390 million [2] Bitcoin Dynamics - Significant selling pressure from "whales" (holders of over 1,000 Bitcoins) and long-term holders has been observed, with approximately 815,000 Bitcoins sold in the last 30 days, marking the highest sell-off level since early 2024 [4] - Whales holding Bitcoin for over seven years are reportedly selling at a rate exceeding 1,000 Bitcoins per hour [4] MicroStrategy Insights - Speculation regarding MicroStrategy potentially selling Bitcoin has increased, with on-chain fund movements raising concerns among market observers [4] - MicroStrategy's stock has declined nearly 32% over the past month, with a market capitalization of $59 billion, while the value of its Bitcoin holdings stands at $62.3 billion [5] - Despite the stock decline, MicroStrategy's co-founder Michael Saylor reiterated the company's strategy of continuous buying, pausing only at the end of each fiscal quarter for new purchase announcements [5] Economic Context - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the potential absence of key economic data releases, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment statistics for October, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [5] - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan indicated that she does not support further interest rate cuts unless there is clear evidence of a faster decline in U.S. inflation [5] - Concerns about inflation and labor market risks have led to a cautious stance among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts [5]

Group 1: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin has entered a confirmed bear market, having dropped over 20% from its historical high of $125,000, resulting in a market cap loss exceeding $450 billion [3] - On October 11, Bitcoin experienced a significant drop of 13% within 24 hours, leading to a total liquidation amount of $19.358 billion, affecting approximately 1.66 million traders [6] - Long-term holders have sold approximately 815,000 Bitcoins, marking the highest level of selling since 2024, as major investment funds and ETFs withdraw their positions [9] Group 2: Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have seen a sharp decline, with international spot gold dropping over 6% on October 21, marking the largest single-day drop since April 2013 [12] - The Central Bank of the Philippines is considering selling some of its gold reserves, which currently account for about 13% of its $109 billion international reserves, aiming to reduce this to a range of 8%-12% [14] - Predictions for gold prices vary significantly, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a price of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while others predict a drop to $3,500 per ounce due to excessive central bank reserves [17] Group 3: Technology Sector Performance - Global technology stocks have faced a significant downturn, with U.S. tech stocks leading the decline amid economic uncertainties and valuation corrections [20] - Nvidia's stock fell by 9.1% in the week leading up to November 7, followed by a further 3.2% drop, resulting in a market cap loss of over $100 billion [21] - Tesla's stock dropped over 6% in a single day on November 13, with a total weekly decline of approximately 10%, leading to a market cap loss exceeding $125 billion [22]

Group 1 - Bitcoin has experienced its third consecutive week of decline, marking the fifth drop in the past six weeks, with a total market cap loss of over $1 trillion since October 10 [2] - Approximately 180,000 individuals faced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market within the last 24 hours, totaling $680 million, with $510 million from long positions and $170 million from short positions [2] - The cumulative increase in Bitcoin's value this year has narrowed to less than 8%, suggesting a potential downturn in what was initially a record-setting year for the cryptocurrency market [2] Group 2 - The current sell-off in the cryptocurrency market is correlated with other risk assets, but the decline in cryptocurrencies is more pronounced due to their higher volatility [3] - Significant selling pressure is attributed to "whales" (holders of over 1,000 Bitcoins) and long-term holders, with approximately 815,000 Bitcoins sold in the past 30 days, the highest level since early 2024 [3] - Whales holding Bitcoin for over seven years are reportedly selling at a rate exceeding 1,000 Bitcoins per hour [3] Group 3 - Speculation regarding MicroStrategy potentially selling Bitcoin has increased, with on-chain fund movements raising concerns among market observers [4] - MicroStrategy's stock has dropped nearly 32% over the past month, with a market cap of $59 billion, while its Bitcoin holdings are valued at $62.3 billion [4] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed caution regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, which has negatively impacted risk appetite in the market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, is experiencing significant declines while traditional tech stocks are rebounding, highlighting a stark contrast in market behavior and sentiment [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 14, the U.S. stock market saw a dramatic reversal, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices rebounding after initial panic selling, while Bitcoin fell 5%, dropping below $94,000, marking a six-month low [1][4]. - Bitcoin has now declined for three consecutive weeks, with a total market cap loss exceeding $1 trillion since the October 10 flash crash [3][8]. - The Nasdaq 100 index and S&P 500 index rebounded strongly after hitting key support levels, while Bitcoin's performance diverged negatively from these indices [4][8]. Group 2: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq 100 remains high at 0.8, but it exhibits a "larger drop and weaker rise" characteristic, indicating a lack of upward momentum despite market recoveries [11][14]. - The cryptocurrency market is facing extreme pessimism, with the fear and greed index dropping to 15, the lowest level since February, suggesting a potential for further declines [15][18]. - Long-term holders have sold approximately 815,000 Bitcoins in the past 30 days, the highest level of selling activity since early 2024, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment [20][21]. Group 3: Institutional and Retail Investor Behavior - ETF trading activity has surged, accounting for 37% of the day's trading volume, significantly higher than the 27% average for the year, reflecting a strong interest in tech stocks [7]. - The outflow from Bitcoin ETFs has reached $311.3 million this week, marking the fifth consecutive week of net outflows, totaling $2.6 billion over the past five weeks [21]. - The Trump family's investments in cryptocurrency-related assets have also suffered, with declines of approximately 30% since Bitcoin's peak on October 5 [24][25].

数据显示，过去24小时加密货币市场共有超22.5万人被爆仓，爆仓总金额为10.66亿美元，其中多单爆仓 8.9亿美元，空单爆仓1.7亿美元。消息面上，有市场人士认为，目前资金可能开始撤退加密货币市场， 加密货币市场或开启脆弱性时期。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...