需要指出的是，TMT行业牛股频出的背后，也需要留意相关风险。 一方面，需留意市场过分追捧TMT和AI导致的非理性炒作风险。近几年AI变革浪潮使得TMT行业再度 站上风口，大量投机资金顺势涌入，使得相关行业投资可能出现拥挤情形，一旦出现调整势头，投机资 金快速撤出或导致市场出现大幅震荡。此外，一些TMT行业企业近几年股价涨幅远超同期企业业绩增 长幅度，也可能产生股价过度透支业绩的风险。 另一方面，TMT行业企业的成长性，也依赖相关企业能否持续跟上日新月异的新技术发展步伐，一旦 相关公司在技术上有所"掉队"，成长动能消失，其业绩和股价也会受到波及，从而产生投资风险。 最近A股市场上新易盛（300502）、胜宏科技（300476）等一些公司的表现引起广泛关注，这些昔日尚 不太知名的公司股价最近不仅屡创新高，而且成交频频"霸榜"，单日成交额位列A股市场5000多只股票 的前几名。这些公司均属于TMT(Technology Media Telecom，科技、媒体和通信)行业，且在短短几年时 间里，股价均已涨了10倍以上。 梳理发现，最近几年股价涨幅超过10倍的股票中，TMT行业的公司最多。比如在考虑权息因素后， 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - Under the backdrop of normalized global geopolitical risks, weakened dollar credit system, and rising economic uncertainty, gold has emerged as a "yardstick" for measuring asset value [1] Asset Performance - Since March 2018, only a few cryptocurrencies have recorded positive returns when priced in gold, while other asset classes have generally underperformed [2] - The report highlights that the performance of cryptocurrencies is driven by payment convenience, technological innovation premiums, and supply scarcity, particularly Bitcoin's halving mechanism, which reinforces its "digital gold" status [4] - Equity assets have shown nominal growth but remain weak when priced in gold, primarily relying on liquidity injections, with a peak growth rate of 26.7% in the US M2 money supply [4] - Real estate in the US and India has underperformed relative to gold, despite benefiting from economic resilience and demographic dividends [4] Industry Performance - All major industries have underperformed gold since 2018, but resource sectors and new momentum industries, such as high-dividend coal and banking, have shown relative strength [6] - New momentum industries, represented by electric new energy and TMT, have outperformed traditional sectors like real estate [7] - In the secondary industry, precious metals have been the standout performer since 2018, with emerging technologies like semiconductors outperforming traditional tech [8] Style and Strategy - Small-cap stocks have emerged as the absolute winners, with the micro-cap index outperforming gold since 2018 due to a reverse investment mechanism, low valuations, and liquidity premiums [10][13] - The report indicates that small-cap factors have significantly outperformed gold, while large-cap stocks have lagged, reflecting a preference for emerging small-cap industries [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market shows a pattern of oscillating rotation, while the bond market sentiment has turned positive. In the stock index futures market, events have catalyzed the rotation from large - financial sectors to TMT sectors. For stock index options, a covered - call defense strategy is recommended. In the treasury bond futures market, the sentiment has improved, with different impacts on long - and short - term bonds [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The event has catalyzed the rotation from large - financial sectors to TMT sectors. The IF, IH, IC, and IM basis and spread data have changed compared to the previous trading day, and their positions have also changed. The market is affected by events such as NVIDIA's sales plan in China and the Central Urban Work Conference. The anti - involution trading is expected to continue until the Politburo meeting in July. It is recommended to configure IM long positions before the meeting [7][8] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - A covered - call defense strategy is recommended. The trading volume of each option variety has increased by 78.86%, while the implied volatility has decreased by an average of 0.27%. The decline in implied volatility is mainly due to the weakening of far - month implied volatility, and the short - term market trend is oscillating and weak [2][8] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment has turned positive. The treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising by 0.47%, 0.18%, 0.13%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank made a large - scale net investment, but the capital market was still tight during the tax - payment period. The GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, which the bond market had already priced in. The stock - bond seesaw effect supported the bond market. The improvement of risk preference is negative for the long - term bonds, while the central bank's care for the capital market and large banks' purchase of short - term bonds are positive for short - term bonds. It is recommended to pay attention to the steepening of the yield curve [2][9][10] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data of China and the US in June are presented, including China's export amount, new RMB loans, industrial added value, and the US CPI. The actual values of some data deviate from the predicted values [12] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Important Meetings**: The Central Urban Work Conference was held, emphasizing the transformation of urban development from large - scale incremental expansion to stock quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [12] - **Economic Data**: The GDP in the first half of the year was 66.0536 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The social consumer goods retail sales and industrial added value data in June are also provided [13] - **AI Computing Power**: NVIDIA has obtained approval to sell H20 chips to China and will launch RTXpro GPU [13] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: The basis, spread, and position data of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided [7] - **Stock Index Options Data**: No specific data content provided - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: The trading volume, open interest, spread, and basis data of T, TF, TS, and TL are provided, along with the central bank's open - market operations [9]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese stock market and investment strategies, with a focus on sectors such as technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: The overall sentiment in the market remains optimistic for the medium term, despite some investors expressing concerns about potential short-term pullbacks, which are viewed as buying opportunities [1][3][4] 2. **Sector Performance**: The technology sector, particularly innovative pharmaceuticals, is recognized as having a higher acceptance in the market compared to other sectors like TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [2][5] 3. **Investment Strategy**: A bullish mindset is encouraged, with an emphasis on the potential for recovery in corporate earnings, particularly among leading companies, as supply-side improvements are expected to play a significant role [3][4][6] 4. **Earnings Recovery**: The expectation is that the bottom of earnings will be visible by the third quarter, with a recovery trend anticipated into the fourth quarter and beyond [4][8] 5. **Valuation Considerations**: The need to tolerate some valuation premiums in certain sectors is highlighted, especially in resilient domestic demand and innovative pharmaceuticals [5][6] 6. **Trade Relations**: Optimism regarding US-China trade negotiations is expressed, with expectations of a potential agreement by the third quarter, which could positively impact market sentiment [6][7] 7. **Sector Opportunities**: Specific sectors such as renewable energy, machinery, and non-ferrous metals are identified as areas of interest, along with innovative pharmaceuticals and military trade [7][8] 8. **Market Dynamics**: The call discusses the relationship between trading volume and market sentiment, indicating that high trading volumes in certain sectors may not necessarily lead to immediate pullbacks [10][11] 9. **Quantitative Analysis**: A quantitative approach is used to analyze trading volumes and their correlation with market performance, suggesting that increased trading activity in fundamentally driven sectors can indicate a positive outlook [12][13] 10. **Investment Timing**: The importance of timing in investment decisions is emphasized, particularly in relation to trading volume indicators, which can signal when to buy or sell [14][15][16] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call notes that while some sectors may experience high trading volumes, this does not always correlate with sustainable growth, particularly in non-fundamental driven sectors [11][12] - The discussion includes a detailed analysis of how trading volume can serve as a timing mechanism for investment strategies, particularly in distinguishing between fundamentally driven and speculative sectors [10][14] - The potential for a recovery in capital expenditure is mentioned, which could lead to improved supply-demand dynamics in the market [8][9]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced noticeable fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly falling below the 3500-point mark but recovering to close above it, indicating that the sideways movement since Q4 2024 has ended [1] - The market sentiment regarding trade conflicts has eased, and with the policy window approaching in July, a slow upward trend is expected to continue amidst fluctuations [1] Future Outlook - After breaking the 3500-point level, two potential paths for the market are identified: 1) Continuing the upward trend to challenge the October 2024 high; 2) Consolidating before challenging the 3674-point high [1] - For the market to challenge previous highs, three conditions must be met: 1) Implementation of fiscal stimulus policies; 2) Continued easing of the global environment; 3) Sustained increase in trading volume [1] Sector Analysis - The market is expected to see a thematic event-driven trend in July, with a high likelihood of sector rotation between high and low-performing segments [2] - Key sectors to watch include: 1) Consumer sectors such as dairy, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics, which are expected to benefit from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [2] 2) Robotics, with a shift from humanoid to quadruped and functional robots, presenting opportunities in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands [2] 3) Semiconductor industry, focusing on domestic production across equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] 4) Military industry, with expectations of order recovery in 2025, showing signs of bottoming out in Q1 reports [2] 5) Innovative pharmaceuticals, which are anticipated to reach a turning point in fundamentals after a four-year adjustment period, with positive net profit growth since Q3 2024 [2] Market Performance - The market showed signs of consolidation with a decrease in the number of profitable stocks, as only about 1300 stocks rose during the trading session [3] - Leading sectors included telecommunications, computers, electronics, home appliances, and automobiles, while sectors such as coal, agriculture, public utilities, textiles, and beauty care lagged behind [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth performance and sectors with strong industry momentum during the A-share mid-year report season [1][2] - Companies with significant earnings growth exceeding industry averages and those with low or mid valuations are expected to attract more investment [1][2] - Historical data suggests that sectors performing well in mid-year reports tend to yield excess returns, particularly in July and August [2][3] Group 2 - The AI industry is highlighted as a key growth area, with technology sectors such as electronics, chemicals, automotive, and pharmaceuticals showing positive earnings forecasts [3] - Companies benefiting from AI development, particularly in communications and electronics, are expected to see continued demand for computing power [3] - The report suggests that sectors like power equipment and steel, driven by supply-side logic, are also worth monitoring for potential investment opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) is experiencing a positive trend, driven by leading stocks such as Kuaishou-W, with a focus on the technology sector amidst favorable market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of July 14, 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) has achieved three consecutive days of gains, with Kuaishou-W leading the charge [1]. - The ETF's trading volume reached 98.9 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 7.5% [1]. - The ETF's latest scale stands at 1.307 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Index Performance - The Hang Seng Stock Connect Technology Index (HSSCITI) has shown resilience, outperforming similar indices such as the Hang Seng Internet and Technology indices [1]. - The HSSCITI's current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) is 21.18, indicating it is at a historical low, being below 96.99% of the time over the past year [1]. Group 3: Top Holdings - As of July 11, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the HSSCITI account for 74.91% of the index, with Kuaishou-W, SMIC, Xiaomi Group-W, Tencent Holdings, and Alibaba-W being the most significant contributors [2]. - Notably, the combined weight of AI leaders Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Tencent exceeds 30%, highlighting a concentration of technology leaders within the index [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The current phase of the Hong Kong technology sector is characterized by a convergence of "valuation trough" and "industrial transformation," with supportive policies and funding enhancing the investment landscape [2]. - Institutions anticipate a gradual increase in earnings per share (EPS) for the Hang Seng Technology Index from 2025 to 2027, suggesting a potential "valuation recovery" and "earnings growth" scenario [2].

廖市无双：轻舟已过 3500，后市可为空间几何？ 20250613 摘要 市场短期阻力与长期潜力：上证指数在 3,555 点附近面临技术阻力，但 多头均线排列和强劲的市场情绪预示着未来仍有上行潜力，或在四季度 前挑战 3,674 点。 筹码结构分析：天朗 50 筹码结构显示，筹码密集区位于 3,350 点附近， 当前点位偏离平均成本，短期存在调整压力，但密集筹码支撑市场迅速 反弹。 板块轮动与风格变化：金融与科技板块齐飞，顺周期板块如房地产和基 建开始走强。金融和成长风格表现突出，消费和稳定风格出现触底迹象， 主题投资成为超额收益的关键。 银行板块投资逻辑：银行板块受益于资产荒和稳定资金流入，周期性上 涨仍有空间，建议逢低配置，但需警惕估值过高或快速上涨的情况。 券商板块投资策略：券商板块反弹显著，但部分个股仍有上涨空间。建 议进行高低切换，将涨幅较大的换成前期涨幅较小的券商股票，优化投 资组合。 Q&A 当前市场走势如何，未来可能会出现哪些变化？ 自 6 月 24 日市场选择向上以来，至 7 月 11 日市场表现强劲。我们在 6 月 24 日翻多，并预测市场短期内会上涨。实际情况显示，市场在 7 月 11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges investors face during a normal valuation period, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a clear strategy and emotional discipline in the face of market fluctuations and structural rotations [3][4][12]. Group 1: Emotional Challenges in Normal Valuation Period - Investors often experience a "fear of missing out" during this phase, leading to anxiety about not participating in rising markets while holding onto their investments [6][8]. - There is also a sense of fatigue from waiting for valuations to drop, causing doubts about whether the opportunity for low valuations has passed [7][8]. - The lack of clear feedback during normal valuation periods can lead to impulsive decisions, such as chasing hot sectors or abandoning established strategies [9][10]. Group 2: Strategies for Navigating Normal Valuation Period - It is crucial to respect position discipline and avoid chasing prices or making hasty exits when valuations are not in the low range [12][16]. - Investors should shift their focus from buying logic to holding logic, assessing whether their holdings deviate from normal value ranges and if rebalancing is necessary [13][14]. - Maintaining a strategy and reducing exposure to market noise is essential, as frequent changes in sector focus can disrupt long-term plans [15][17]. Group 3: Long-term Perspective - The article emphasizes that enduring the quiet periods of normal valuations prepares investors for future opportunities during undervalued and overvalued phases [18]. - The focus should be on refining strategies and managing emotions, ensuring that when market conditions change, investors are ready to act without being swayed by short-term fluctuations [18][19].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) has seen a 1.10% increase, with notable gains from companies like SenseTime-W and Oriental Selection exceeding 5% [1] - The Hang Seng Stock Connect Technology Index (HSSCITI) has outperformed other indices, rising over 1% during trading [1] - The trading volume for the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF reached 2.62 billion, indicating active market participation [1] Group 2 - The HSSCITI's top ten weighted stocks account for 75.01%, with major players like Kuaishou-W and SMIC leading the pack [2] - The concentration of AI leaders such as Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Tencent exceeds 30% within the top-weighted stocks, highlighting a strong focus on technology [2] - The Hong Kong technology sector is currently benefiting from the AI innovation wave, with historical trends suggesting potential for significant returns [2] Group 3 - Long-term trends indicate a rising premium for China's technology sector, with notable excess returns since 2005 [3] - The technology sector has shown high elasticity and sustainability during various market cycles [3] - New industries such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics are gaining policy support, indicating a shift towards localization in core technology sectors [3] Group 4 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF is positioned to capitalize on the "pure technology revolution" opportunities presented by the AI era [4]