1）雅化集团 （幻方量化参与公司电话会议） 调研纪要：雅化集团坚持双主业发展战略，报告期内锂盐长协客户订单需求稳定，产线逐步建设投产， 民爆业务产能有效释放并积极拓展爆破业务。2024年全年实现营业收入77.16亿元，同比下降35.14%， 净利润2.57亿元，同比上升539.36%；2025年一季度实现营业收入15.37亿元，同比下降17.03%，净利润 8,246.44万元，同比上升452.32%。公司拥有津巴布韦卡玛蒂维锂矿68%控制权，年处理锂矿石230万 吨，现有氢氧化锂产能6.3万吨，碳酸锂产能3.6万吨，预计2025年将新增3万吨氢氧化锂产能。客户包括 特斯拉、松下、LGES等知名企业，海外客户订单占比较大。民爆业务覆盖四川、西藏、新疆等20余个 省市区，客户包括中铁建、中电建等大型央企。公司自2013年收购新西兰红牛公司后，加大在非洲和澳 洲区域民爆业务的拓展力度。 根据市场公开信息及4月30日披露的机构调研信息，知名私募幻方量化近期对1家上市公司进行了调研， 相关名单如下： 机构简介： 幻方量化(九章资产)是一家依靠数学与计算机科学进行量化投资的对冲基金公司。创始团队于2008年开 始致力于 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of CNY 2.01 billion in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.18% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 165 million, with a year-on-year increase of 22.54% [2] - The company maintains a robust order book, with a total of CNY 4.992 billion in new contracts signed or executed from January to April 2025 [4] Group 2: Business Growth Drivers - Growth is primarily driven by the rapid expansion of the engineering services sector, particularly in general contracting [2] - Increased sales volume of civil explosives in core regional markets, coupled with effective cost control measures, has significantly improved overall operational quality and efficiency [2] Group 3: Capacity and Market Expansion - The company acquired 51% of Songguang Explosives in March 2025, gaining a certified production capacity of 60,000 tons of industrial explosives [3] - Plans to transfer some production capacity to Xinjiang to align with local business expansion and service demand growth [3] - The company has a production capacity layout of 25,000 tons in Tibet, primarily serving the Jilong Copper Mine project, with plans for dynamic optimization based on market demand [3] Group 4: International Strategy - The company actively responds to the "Belt and Road" initiative, with business operations established in Liberia, Namibia, Malaysia, and other countries along the route [3] - Future international expansion will focus on regions rich in mineral resources, such as Latin America and Australia, to enhance global competitiveness [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company aims to maintain high levels of new contract orders in 2024, with service cycles for new projects typically ranging from 2 to 5 years [4] - There are no adjustments to the revenue and profit targets for 2025, with a continued focus on core business and operational optimization [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 7.72 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 35.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 0.26 billion, showing a significant increase of 539.6% [1][5]. - The stable contribution from the civil explosives business is noted, while the lithium salt business is impacted by falling lithium prices [2][3]. - The company has significant potential with its own lithium mining capacity expected to ramp up, alongside ongoing expansion in lithium salt production [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 77.2 billion, down 35.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.6 billion, up 539.6% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 17.9 billion, a decrease of 26.1% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.0 billion, showing a turnaround from losses [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 15.4 billion, down 17.0% year-on-year, but net profit increased to 0.8 billion, up 446.7% year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - The civil explosives business generated revenue of 32.6 billion in 2024, a decline of 4.0% year-on-year, but net profit for Q1 2025 increased by 23.5% [2]. - Lithium salt sales volume in 2024 reached 48,000 tons, up 63.4% year-on-year, but revenue fell to 41.2 billion, down 50.4% due to price declines [2]. Growth Potential - The company has established its own lithium mining operations in Zimbabwe and Namibia, with significant production capacity expected to come online [3]. - The lithium salt production capacity is projected to expand to nearly 130,000 tons by the end of 2025, with key customers including Tesla and CATL [3]. - The overseas mining service business is anticipated to grow, leveraging cost advantages in civil explosives [3]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 5.5 billion for 2025, 8.5 billion for 2026, and 10.6 billion for 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 15, and 12 [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Guotai Group, indicating a potential increase in stock price relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [1][7][14]. Core Views - Guotai Group is positioned as the only civil explosive production enterprise in Jiangxi Province, with a business model that integrates civil explosives, military new materials, and rail transit operations, indicating a stable development strategy [1][6][7]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.354 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million yuan, down 40.84% year-on-year, primarily due to goodwill impairment [4][5][9]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to a 40.55% drop in rail transit automation business income and a contraction in the civil explosive market [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Guotai Group achieved a revenue of 2.354 billion yuan, down 7.34% year-on-year, and a net profit of 181 million yuan, down 40.84% year-on-year [4][9]. - The fourth quarter saw a significant loss of 37.7768 million yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of 147.29% [5]. - The civil explosive integrated business generated 1.646 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 5.70%, while the military new materials business saw a revenue increase of 55.21% to 269 million yuan [5][9]. Business Segments - The civil explosive business is expected to benefit from the construction of the Zhejiang-Jiangxi-Guangdong Canal, which may increase demand in the region [6][7]. - The military new materials segment is projected to grow significantly due to the successful progress of the energetic materials project, with production lines expected to come online by late 2025 and mid-2026 [6][7]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.49 yuan in 2025, 0.56 yuan in 2026, and 0.62 yuan in 2027, indicating a recovery trend after the decline in 2024 [7][9]. - Revenue is expected to grow to 2.681 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 13.88%, and further increase to 3.057 billion yuan in 2026 [9].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·能源金属 雅化集团（002497） 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评：自有矿即将 贡献利润，民爆业绩增速亮眼 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,895 | 7,716 | 9,456 | 11,909 | 15,206 | | 同比（%） | (17.72) | (35.14) | 22.55 | 25.94 | 27.69 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 40.22 | 257.12 | 808.12 | 1,281.52 | 1,942.01 | | 同比（%） | (99.11) | 539.36 | 214.30 | 58.58 | 51.54 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.03 | 0.22 | 0.70 | 1.11 | 1.68 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 324.72 | 50.79 | 16.16 | 10.19 | ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·能源金属 雅化集团（002497） 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评：自有矿即将 贡献利润，民爆业绩增速亮眼 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,895 | 7,716 | 9,456 | 11,909 | 15,206 | | 同比（%） | (17.72) | (35.14) | 22.55 | 25.94 | 27.69 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 40.22 | 257.12 | 808.12 | 1,281.52 | 1,942.01 | | 同比（%） | (99.11) | 539.36 | 214.30 | 58.58 | 51.54 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.03 | 0.22 | 0.70 | 1.11 | 1.68 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 324.72 | 50.79 | 16.16 | 10.19 | ...

Group 1: Ninebot Company (689009) - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 5.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99.5%, and a net profit of 456 million yuan, up 236.2% year-on-year [10] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been raised to 1.898 billion, 2.700 billion, and 3.600 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 75.1%, 42.2%, and 33.3% [10] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 24X, 17X, and 13X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [10] Group 2: Kweichow Moutai (600519) - The company achieved a revenue of 43.56 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, with a net profit margin of 52.2% [15][13] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 93.96 billion, 99.14 billion, and 104.71 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.0%, 5.5%, and 5.6% respectively [11][12] - The company maintains a strong brand presence and cash flow quality, with a current PE ratio of 21X, 20X, and 19X for the respective years [12][13] Group 3: Caibai Co., Ltd. (605599) - The company reported a net profit forecast for 2025-2027 of 804 million, 877 million, and 949 million yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [19] - The increase in gold prices has driven demand for investment products, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [19] - The company continues to expand its direct store network and enhance its online sales channels, achieving significant growth in e-commerce sales [16][19] Group 4: Bull Group (603195) - The company reported a revenue of 16.831 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and a net profit of 4.272 billion yuan, up 10.4% [18] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 8.04 billion, 8.77 billion, and 9.49 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [19] - The company is focusing on channel expansion and brand recognition to drive long-term sustainable growth [19] Group 5: Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) - The company achieved a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, with a net profit of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% [21] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 12.99 billion, 14.02 billion, and 15.29 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.1%, 7.9%, and 9.1% respectively [21] - The company maintains a strong market presence with a diversified product range and solid management capabilities [21] Group 6: Yili Group (600887) - The company reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, with a net profit of 8.453 billion yuan, down 18.94% [26] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 11.377 billion, 12.138 billion, and 12.815 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 35%, 7%, and 6% respectively [28] - The company continues to focus on high-end product penetration and market share expansion in the dairy sector [28]

Group 1: Company Insights - Dekoli's Q1 2025 revenue increased by 6% year-on-year, but profit margins significantly declined due to high-cost DCI business and product structure adjustments [1] - Transsion Holdings reported Q1 2025 revenue of 13.004 billion, a decrease of 25.45% year-on-year, with net profit down 69.87% due to market competition and supply chain costs [2] - Guangdong Hongda's Q1 gross margin for civil explosives improved compared to the previous year, with expectations for further margin increases as market consolidation progresses [3] - Glodon plans to optimize its personnel structure and expand its digital cost management business, with a focus on urban renewal and a positive outlook for growth in this area [4] - Jieshun Technology aims to increase parking revenue by 5% to 20% through various strategies, with a gross margin of over 70% for certain business segments [5] - YHLO is integrating AI technologies into its product matrix and customer service, enhancing its laboratory automation solutions [6] - AVIC Chengfei is in the component production phase, expecting to enter the product delivery cycle in Q2 2025, which will support its annual performance [7] - Jingzhida's semiconductor business revenue share rose to over 30%, with expectations for further growth and improved gross margins through domestic component substitution [8] Group 2: Industry Trends - The DCI market is experiencing a surge in demand driven by computing power needs, with Dekoli prioritizing capacity for existing orders [1] - Transsion Holdings is focusing on emerging markets with low smartphone penetration, aiming to enhance product innovation and expand its business scale [2] - The civil explosives market is expected to see increased concentration and margin improvements as industry consolidation accelerates [3] - Glodon's digital cost management solutions are positioned to meet diverse client needs, particularly in urban renewal projects [4] - The parking industry is leveraging AI and e-commerce models to enhance revenue streams and operational efficiency [5] - The integration of AI in laboratory automation is becoming a key trend, with companies like YHLO leading the charge [6] - The aerospace industry is focusing on high-quality information disclosure and investor relations to enhance market value [7] - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a shift towards domestic component production, which is expected to improve supply chain security and profitability [8]

Investment Highlights - The report highlights the recovery of revenue growth for Yuyue Medical, with a significant increase in overseas sales, achieving a revenue of 7.57 billion yuan in 2024, down 5.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.81 billion yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year [3][8] - Guotai Group's performance shows resilience in its civil explosives business, with a non-net profit growth of 17.09% year-on-year in Q1 2025, despite a slight revenue decline of 1.26% [12][13] - China Merchants Highway reported a revenue of approximately 2.803 billion yuan in Q1 2025, down 7.24% year-on-year, but net profit improved by 2.74% due to cost control and increased investment income [16][17] - Shenzhen Gas's main business in urban gas sales showed growth, with a revenue of 28.348 billion yuan in 2024, down 8.34% year-on-year, but a net profit increase of 1.19% [21][22] - New Industry's overseas business continued to grow rapidly, with a revenue of 4.535 billion yuan in 2024, up 15.41% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.828 billion yuan, up 10.57% [25][26] - Huali Group's revenue in Q1 2025 grew by 12% year-on-year, driven by new brand collaborations and strong sales of sports shoes [30][31] - Bohai Leasing, a leading aircraft leasing company, reported a significant increase in aircraft sales revenue, reaching 12.7 billion yuan in 2024, up 61.08% year-on-year, driven by a strong aircraft market [35][36] - Weimao Electronics, an industrial intelligent connection control solution manufacturer, achieved a revenue of 260 million yuan in 2024, up 13.69% year-on-year, with a focus on expanding into emerging fields [39][40] Company-Specific Summaries Yuyue Medical (002223.SZ) - The company experienced a revenue decline in 2024 due to high base effects from the previous year, but Q1 2025 showed a recovery with a 9.2% year-on-year increase in revenue [3][9] - The product mix has led to a slight decrease in gross margin, with a 50.1% gross margin in 2024, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The company maintains a strong financial position with 7.08 billion yuan in cash and no short-term or long-term loans [10] Guotai Group (603977.SH) - The civil explosives business showed growth, with a revenue of 327 million yuan in Q1 2025, up 1.4% year-on-year [13][14] - The company faced a decline in electronic detonator sales but saw an increase in explosive engineering revenue [14][15] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 32.72%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, but the non-net profit remained stable [15] China Merchants Highway (001965.SZ) - The company is actively pursuing expansion projects, including the ongoing reconstruction of key highways [17][18] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is expected to grow steadily, with projected profits of 5.74 billion yuan in 2025 [18] Shenzhen Gas (601139.SH) - The urban gas sales volume increased by 2.78% in 2024, with significant growth in the Greater Bay Area [22] - The company is expected to benefit from lower upstream gas prices and increased sales volume [22][24] New Industry (300832.SZ) - The company reported a strong performance in overseas markets, with a 27.67% increase in overseas revenue [27] - The gross margin for 2024 was 72.26%, with a focus on expanding the product lineup in the chemical luminescence sector [28] Huali Group (300979.SZ) - The company maintained a strong partnership with major brands, resulting in a 12.34% revenue increase in Q1 2025 [30][31] - The company is expanding production capacity to meet growing demand, with a workforce increase of 17% [31] Bohai Leasing (000415.SZ) - The company is positioned as a global leader in aircraft leasing, with a fleet size of 1,158 aircraft [36] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is expected to grow significantly, with a projected profit of 1.913 billion yuan in 2025 [37] Weimao Electronics (833346.BJ) - The company is focusing on the automotive and industrial automation sectors, with a projected growth in the vehicle wiring harness market [40][41] - The company is expanding its production capabilities to meet increasing demand in emerging markets [41]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangnan Chemical (002226.SZ) continues to show growth in both revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with significant improvements in cash flow and total assets [1][2] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 2.013 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 146 million yuan, with cash flow from operating activities increasing by 187.93% year-on-year [1] - The company's gross margin improved to 27.39%, up by 1.05 percentage points year-on-year, while net margin reached 9.93%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points [2] - The total profit of the civil explosives industry in Q1 2025 was 1.313 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.03% [2] Industry Position and Growth - Jiangnan Chemical holds a leading position in the civil explosives industry with a production capacity of 765,500 tons, making it one of the most comprehensive civil explosive companies in China [2] - The company is actively involved in industry consolidation and has completed acquisitions to enhance its market position [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the integration of its production capacity and the anticipated injection of assets from affiliated companies [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is leveraging its affiliation with the Weapon Industry Group to focus on civil explosives and participate in the "Belt and Road" initiative, contributing to multiple engineering projects in various countries [3] - Jiangnan Chemical is committed to green and low-carbon development, having established several green factories and contributing to sustainable energy projects [4][5] ESG and Innovation - The company has released its third consecutive ESG report, highlighting its commitment to low-carbon development and resource recycling [4] - Jiangnan Chemical's renewable energy business generated 777 million yuan in revenue and contributed to environmental asset growth through green certificate sales [5] - The company is investing in technological innovation, focusing on smart mining and new explosive materials to enhance its competitive edge [7] Shareholder Engagement - Jiangnan Chemical emphasizes corporate governance and sustainable development, ensuring investor rights and sharing growth with shareholders through dividends [6][7]