Core Viewpoint - The ADP report indicates a surprising decline in private sector employment in June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [3][4]. Employment Data Summary - In June, U.S. private sector jobs decreased by 33,000, with the previous month's increase revised down to only 29,000 [3]. - The service sector saw a significant job loss of 66,000, particularly in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education [6][7]. - Manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors experienced job gains, with a total increase of 32,000 in production jobs, partially offsetting the overall decline [8]. Economic Sentiment and Future Outlook - Employers are becoming increasingly cautious due to the impact of trade policies and are focusing on aligning workforce numbers with the slowing economic activity [6]. - The average job growth over the past three months has slowed to 18,700, the lowest since the early pandemic [10]. - The proportion of consumers who believe job opportunities are plentiful has dropped to a four-year low, indicating a potential shift in economic sentiment [10]. Wage Growth and Employment Trends - Wage growth has also slowed, with salaries for job switchers increasing by 6.8% year-over-year, while those remaining in their positions saw a 4.4% increase [10]. - The upcoming government non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment report indicates a surprising decline in U.S. private sector jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data - In June, U.S. private sector employment decreased by 33,000 jobs, the first decline in over two years, with the previous month's increase revised down to only 29,000 [3][4]. - The service sector saw a significant job loss of 66,000 positions, particularly in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education [6][9]. - Manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors experienced job growth, adding a total of 32,000 positions, which partially offset the overall decline [9]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Employers are increasingly cautious due to the impact of trade policies and are focused on aligning workforce numbers with the slowing economic activity [6]. - The average employment growth over the past three months has slowed to 18,700 jobs in May, the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic [9]. - The proportion of consumers who believe job opportunities are plentiful has dropped to the lowest level in over four years [9]. Group 3: Wage Growth and Future Expectations - Wage growth is showing signs of slowing, with salaries for job switchers increasing by 6.8% year-over-year, while those remaining in their positions saw a 4.4% increase [9]. - The upcoming government non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent mineral agreement between the U.S. and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) aims to counter China's dominance in the critical mineral supply chain, particularly in copper and cobalt production [1][6]. Group 1: China's Dominance in DRC's Mining Sector - Chinese enterprises dominate the cobalt and copper projects in the DRC, accounting for 76% of the new production capacity added in the past seven years [2][4]. - The DRC has become the second-largest copper producer globally, surpassing Peru, with production expected to continue growing, potentially reaching its peak by 2028 [1][4]. Group 2: U.S. Involvement and Strategic Interests - The U.S. is seeking to diversify the DRC's partnerships in mineral extraction to reduce reliance on China, as indicated by the recent peace agreement signed between Rwanda and the DRC [6][7]. - The agreement includes provisions for opening up mineral resources to U.S. investments, focusing on integrating critical mineral supply chains [6][7]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Challenges - The demand for copper is projected to surge over the next 25 years, marking the beginning of a "copper century," with the DRC and Zambia identified as having significant export growth potential [4][6]. - Despite the potential, there are concerns that U.S. interest in large projects in the DRC remains low, which could hinder the country's economic transformation if it excludes Chinese investments [1][6].

Core Insights - The U.S. private sector employment unexpectedly declined by 33,000 in June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with significant losses in the service sector [1][3] - The labor market's weakness has raised concerns among market participants, with employers becoming increasingly cautious amid economic slowdown [3][11] Employment Trends - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in June, against an expectation of an increase of 98,000, with May's figures revised down to a mere 29,000 increase [1][3] - Job losses were primarily concentrated in small businesses, while manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors saw job gains [5][8] Sector Performance - The service sector experienced a notable decline, losing 66,000 jobs, particularly in professional and business services, healthcare, and education [3][9] - In contrast, the goods-producing sector added 32,000 jobs, with manufacturing contributing 15,000, construction 9,000, and mining 8,000 [9] Wage Growth - Despite the slowdown in hiring, wage growth remains relatively stable, with year-over-year wage growth for employed workers at 4.4%, slightly down from 4.5% in May [10] - The wage growth for job switchers decreased from 7.0% to 6.8% [10] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, traders increased bets on at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025 [12] - The dollar index fell by approximately 20 points, while U.S. stock futures showed minimal fluctuations [14] Broader Labor Market Indicators - Average job growth over the past three months has slowed to 18,700 per month, the weakest level since the onset of the pandemic [15] - Additional indicators of labor market weakness include longer job search times and a significant drop in consumer confidence regarding job availability [16]

印尼矿业部长：政府计划将采矿配额期限由三年恢复为一年有效期。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic operation is in a neutral range, and the marginal change in the economy compared to 2024 may lie in consumption [2][104]. - The negative economic cycle of "sharp decline in housing prices, sharp decline in the stock market - wealth shrinkage - consumption downgrade" in the past two years has come to an end [2][104]. - Pay attention to the progress of future China - US trade negotiations and whether the fentanyl tariff can be reduced to 0, as well as possible policy adjustments for weak business reception activities that may affect consumption [2][104]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro News - On June 24, six departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", which aims to activate markets such as automobiles, culture and tourism, and elderly care through various measures [8]. - On June 26, the Financial Regulatory Administration and others issued the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of Inclusive Finance in the Banking and Insurance Industries", aiming to build a high - quality inclusive finance system and solve the financing problems of small and micro enterprises, "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers", and new citizens [8]. - The second - quarter meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2025 was held on June 23. It was more cautious about the world economic growth momentum and more optimistic about the domestic economy. The probability of a recent reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut is low [8]. - From January to May 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 2.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.1%. However, the profit structure had highlights, with the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increasing by 7.2% [9][10]. - Israel and Iran announced a formal cease - fire, leading to a significant decline in domestic and international oil prices recently [13]. 3.2 Medium - term High - Frequency: Consumption and Production Show Differentiated Recovery Characteristics 3.2.1 Consumption: Policy Stimulus Shows Remarkable Results - As of the week of June 22, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers increased by 30.0% year - on - year, and the average daily wholesale volume increased by 1.4% year - on - year [16][19]. - As of the week of June 13, the retail volume and retail amount of three major household appliances increased by 24.6% and 13.5% year - on - year respectively [16][25]. 3.2.2 Transportation: Supply Chain Resilience is Prominent - As of the week of June 22, the container throughput of ports increased by 5.3% year - on - year, railway freight volume increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and highway truck traffic volume increased by 0.7% year - on - year [17][27]. - As of the week of June 22, the number of civil aviation flights guaranteed increased by 1.7% year - on - year, and as of June 27, the average passenger volume of subways in first - tier cities in the past 7 days increased by 2.3% year - on - year [17][36]. 3.2.3 Capacity Utilization: Infrastructure Chain is Stronger than Chemical Chain - As of June 25, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of major steel enterprises nationwide was 77.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.2 pct, and as of June 26, the average asphalt capacity utilization rate was 25.0%, a year - on - year increase of 1.0 pct [17][49]. - As of June 26, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 85.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 pct, and the PVC capacity utilization rate was 74.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5 pct [17][53]. 3.2.4 Real Estate: Continuously Under Pressure - As of June 27, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the number of transactions decreased by 2.0% year - on - year [18][62]. - As of June 22, the listing price index of second - hand houses in national cities decreased by 7.5% year - on - year [18][67]. 3.2.5 Price: Commodity Prices are Under Pressure - As of June 27, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 16.8% year - on - year, and the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 0.8% year - on - year [18][75]. - As of June 27, the average spot price of WTI crude oil was 67.4 US dollars per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 17.0% [18][81]. 3.3 Bond Market and Foreign Exchange Market: Structural Easing Coexists with Cross - Month Pressure - On June 27, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.35%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, with changes of - 1.0BP, + 0.3BP, + 0.6BP, and + 1.3BP compared to June 20 [2][89]. - On June 27, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.16/7.17, down 68/147 pips compared to June 20 [94]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior: The Duration of Credit Bond Funds has Decreased - As of June 29, the net - breaking rate of public wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 0.81%, a decrease of 1.16 pct compared to the beginning of the year, and the current net - breaking rate's percentile within the year was below 5% [96]. - As of June 27, the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds were about 4.7 years and 5.1 years respectively, an increase of about 0.12 years compared to the previous week; the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds were about 1.9 years and 2.1 years respectively, a decrease of about 0.19 years compared to the previous week [97][98]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - Be bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds and bank capital bonds with a yield of over 2%. Currently, the yield of 10Y treasury bonds is close to a historical low, and the cost - effectiveness of investing in interest - rate bonds is low. Among interest - rate bonds, local bonds have a higher cost - effectiveness than treasury bonds [104]. - Continue to pay attention to Hong Kong - listed banks. The low interest rates in the domestic market may drive up the valuations of high - dividend stocks [104].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Industrias Penoles has resumed operations at the Tizapa mine after several months of strikes [1] Group 2 - The resumption of operations indicates a potential recovery in production and revenue for the company following the disruptions caused by the strikes [1]

金十数据6月30日讯，天眼查App显示，近日，赤峰黄金发生工商变更，注册资本由约16.6亿人民币增至 约19亿人民币，增幅约14%，同时，部分主要人员也发生变更。该公司成立于1998年6月，法定代表人 为王建华，经营范围为有色金属采选、购销，对采矿业及其他国家允许投资的行业的投资与管理，货物 或技术进出口，由李金阳、香港中央结算有限公司、香港中央结算有限公司、王建华等共同持股。 赤峰黄金增资至19亿 增幅约14% ...

Economic Overview - Shenzhen's economy showed overall stability and progress in the first five months of the year, with industrial production maintaining a steady growth of 3.5% year-on-year in the scale of above-designated size industries [1] - High-tech product output continued to grow rapidly, with significant increases in civilian drones (68.0%), 3D printing equipment (40.7%), and industrial robots (38.8%) [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Shenzhen faced pressure, declining by 9.2% year-on-year, with real estate development investment down by 11.9% [2] - Industrial technology transformation investment surged by 48.2%, while information transmission, software, and IT service industries grew by 48.7% [2] - Social retail sales showed a notable recovery, with total retail sales reaching 411.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [2] Consumer Behavior - The consumption of basic living goods performed well, with retail sales of daily necessities and grain and oil products increasing by 10.6% and 10.4%, respectively [2] - The "old for new" policy in consumer goods continued to show effectiveness, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances (74.9%) and cultural office supplies (34.4%) [2] - Online retail also saw robust growth, with sales through the internet increasing by 25.6% [2] Foreign Trade - Shenzhen's total import and export value decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with exports falling by 8.6% and imports rising by 10.1% [3] - High-tech product exports grew by 6.2%, indicating a positive trend in this sector despite overall declines [3] Financial Sector - Financial institutions in Shenzhen reported a steady increase in deposits and loans, with total deposits reaching 14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [3] - The loan balance also increased by 2.9%, reflecting a stable financial environment [3] Price Trends - Consumer prices in Shenzhen experienced mild inflation, with an overall increase of 0.1% year-on-year [3] - Specific categories showed varied price changes, with food and beverage prices up by 0.7% and clothing prices up by 1.4% [3]

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-06-30 工企盈利承压 ——中国盈利系列十一 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 宏观事件 6 月 27 日，国家统计局数据显示，1—5 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 27204.3 亿元，同比下降 1.1%。 核心观点 ■ 营收压力仍存 总量：需求与价格双弱，库存压力仍存。2025年 1-5月，全国规模以上工业企业实现利 润总额 2.72 万亿元，同比下降 1.1%（较 1-4 月的+1.4%由正转负），主要受三重压力影 响：一是需求与价格双弱，PPI累计同比下跌 3.3%挤压毛利空间，叠加每百元营收成本 同比增加 0.24 元，进一步压缩利润；二是短期基数效应，投资收益等非经营性收益的 高基数下拉利润增速1.7个百分点；三是单月加速下滑，工业企业同比增速从4月的3% 大幅转负至 5 月的-9.1%，反映内需不足与"抢出口"效应消退的冲击。积极信号方面， 营业收入同比增长 2.7%，毛利润增长 1.1%，为后续盈利修复提供基础；装备制造 ...