[Table_Summary] 报告要点： 货币政策与地区冲突共同压制全球股市 n.qq.com/s/TX4TkTX0RZ7LRUsFAF59cQ[Table_Main] 宏观研究|全球市场专题 2026 年 3 月 24 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 多国央行暂缓降息，股市进一步承压 ——全球市场周报 2026 年 3 月 14 日至 3 月 20 日，全球金融市场步入了一个极具动荡的 深度调整期。这一周的市场被地缘冲突和多国央行议息会议所主导，特 别是中东局势的全面升级，霍尔木兹海峡这一全球石油和液化天然气 （LNG）的咽喉要道实际上已处于关闭状态。本周英国央行、欧洲央行、 日本央行和美联储等多国央行均维持利率不变，投资者不得不面对一个 被动的局面，一方面，能源成本的激增正在侵蚀企业的利润并抑制消费 支出；另一方面，短期内迅速恶化的通胀预期使得美联储等主要央行难 以采取有效手段来对冲经济放缓的风险，全球金融体系的风险进一步暴 露。这促使资金从成长型资产转向防御性标的。霍尔木兹海峡持续断行 凸显了中东冲突的严重性，而这直接引发了自 1970 年代以来最严重的 能源断供风险。与 1973 年美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "safety myth" surrounding Dubai is collapsing due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the threat from Iran, which is impacting its status as a global business and tourism hub [2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Tourism and Travel - Dubai International Airport is projected to reach a record 95 million passengers by 2025, maintaining its position as the world's busiest international airport since surpassing London Heathrow in 2014 [5]. - Recent attacks from Iran have led to damage at airport facilities and nearby fuel tanks, causing frequent flight cancellations and delays, resulting in a stark decrease in passenger presence at the airport [7]. - The number of flights to Dubai has decreased significantly, with many departing flights fully booked due to evacuations, while incoming flights are nearly empty [7]. Group 2: Real Estate and Economic Impact - Real estate transactions in Dubai dropped by 37% in the first two weeks of March compared to the same period last year, as reported by Goldman Sachs [7]. - The stock price of Emaar Properties, a government-linked real estate company, fell by over 25% following the escalation of the US-Iran conflict [7]. Group 3: Regional Competition and Strategic Shifts - Other Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, are closely observing Dubai's model, aiming to develop their own tourism, sports, and cultural sectors, as well as becoming hubs for data centers and AI technology [9]. - The recent fire and power outage at a data center in the UAE raised concerns about the region's safety, potentially deterring investment and talent [9]. Group 4: Government Response and Public Perception - The UAE government is taking measures to maintain its image as a safe destination, allowing travelers stranded due to conflict to remain in the country beyond their visa limits [10]. - There are reports of increased government scrutiny on social media posts related to attacks, indicating a push to control the narrative surrounding safety in the region [10].

Group 1 - The Indian government is easing restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) to enhance integration with global supply chains and improve competitiveness as a manufacturing base [2][5] - Investments from neighboring countries with a stake of less than 10% will no longer require government approval, indicating a shift in policy towards improving relations with China following past border conflicts [2][4] - The government aims to make decisions on investment proposals from bordering countries within 60 days, focusing on sectors such as production materials, electronic components, photovoltaic panel materials, and semiconductor materials [2][4] Group 2 - The increase in FDI is expected to supplement domestic capital and support the "Atmanirbhar Bharat" initiative, which aims to accelerate overall economic growth in India [5]

Core Viewpoint - China Industrial and Commercial Bank has obtained a patent for an "Information Display Method, Device, Equipment, Storage Medium, and Program Product," with the authorization announcement number CN117271857B, applied on September 2023 [1] Company Overview - China Industrial and Commercial Bank was established in 1985 and is located in Beijing, primarily engaged in monetary financial services [1] - The company has a registered capital of 35,640,625.7089 thousand RMB [1] Investment and Operations - The bank has invested in 28 enterprises and participated in 10,997 bidding projects [1] - It holds 965 trademark information records and 5,000 patent information records [1] - The company has obtained 79 administrative licenses [1]

Group 1 - The "Charming Ningde" citizen card was launched to benefit local residents and stimulate local cultural and tourism consumption, allowing cardholders to access 12 popular A-level scenic spots in Ningde throughout the year [2] - The card is part of a broader initiative by the Ningde Municipal Bureau of Culture and Tourism to integrate national cultural and tourism development strategies, enhancing the quality of life for residents and providing a memorable experience for visitors [2][3] - The launch event was attended by key officials from the Ningde government and representatives from various organizations, highlighting the collaborative effort behind the initiative [2] Group 2 - Xiamen Bank's President Wu Xinhao emphasized the potential for cultural and tourism industry development in Ningde, describing the citizen card as a multi-win smart service platform that promotes the integration of finance and tourism [3] - The Ningde government is committed to enhancing public services and addressing the needs of residents through initiatives like the citizen card, which aims to connect citizens with the city and enhance the local tourism brand [3][4] - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between Xiamen Bank Ningde Branch and the Ningde Municipal Bureau of Culture and Tourism, committing to provide comprehensive credit support for the local cultural and tourism industry over the next three years [4]

Market Performance - On March 23, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 3.76%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 3.49%[3] - The trading volume on March 23 reached 2.45 trillion CNY, an increase of approximately 150 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Analysis - All sectors except for oil and coal experienced declines, with agriculture, commerce, electronics, and textiles showing the largest drops[1] - Over half of the industries saw declines exceeding 4%, with the banking sector also experiencing significant losses[1] Market Sentiment - The market is experiencing heightened panic, influenced by escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which are affecting global energy markets and economic systems[1] - International oil prices have surpassed 100 USD per barrel, and European natural gas prices have significantly increased[1] Economic Impact - The conflict is causing a ripple effect, leading to rising prices in fertilizers and other agricultural products, which may further increase food production costs[1] - The Chinese government is focusing on developing a diverse clean energy system, including wind, solar, nuclear, and biomass energy during the 14th Five-Year Plan[5] Fund Flow - On March 23, the Shanghai Stock Exchange saw a net outflow of 14.944 billion CNY, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange had a net inflow of 0.793 billion CNY[4] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were passenger vehicles, packaging and printing, and photovoltaic equipment, while the top outflow sectors included semiconductors, communication equipment, and components[4] Industry Developments - In the first two months of 2026, China's engineering machinery product exports reached 10.686 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.4%[10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is conducting research on the recycling and utilization of used power batteries from new energy vehicles[9]

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 天眼查资料显示，中国建设银行股份有限公司，成立于2004年，位于北京市，是一家以从事货币金融服 务为主的企业。企业注册资本26160038.1459万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中国建设银行股份有 限公司共对外投资了37家企业，参与招投标项目45007次，财产线索方面有商标信息1895条，专利信息 5000条，此外企业还拥有行政许可149个。 国家知识产权局信息显示，中国建设银行股份有限公司取得一项名为"报文的关键字定位方法及装置"的 专利，授权公告号CN117194998B，申请日期为2023年9月。 ...

Macro Overview - In January-February 2026, industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year, showing a strong start to the year[1] - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.8% year-on-year, a significant improvement from a 3.8% decline in 2025[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 2.8% year-on-year, recovering from 0.9% in December 2025[7] Industrial Production - High-tech manufacturing added value surged by 13.1% year-on-year, outperforming overall industrial growth by 6.8 percentage points[2] - Equipment manufacturing increased by 9.3% year-on-year, indicating robust industrial recovery driven by high-tech and export sectors[2] - Exports in January-February grew by 21.8% year-on-year, with electromechanical product exports rising by 24.3%[2] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment rose by 11.4% year-on-year, supported by fiscal policies and major project initiations[3] - Real estate investment fell by 11.1% year-on-year, with new housing sales area down by 13.5% and sales revenue down by 20.2%[3] - High-tech industry investment maintained a growth rate of 5.1% year-on-year, indicating ongoing support for emerging sectors[3] Consumer Behavior - Service consumption grew by 5.6% year-on-year, significantly outpacing goods consumption growth of 2.5%[7] - Online retail sales increased by 9.2%, with online goods retail up by 10.3%, reflecting a shift towards digital consumption channels[7] - Automotive retail sales declined by 7.3% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in consumer confidence and real estate market impacts[7]

形势依然严峻！ 北京时间3月24日午后，据福克斯新闻最新消息，以色列特拉维夫响起警报，更多伊朗导弹来袭。 特拉维夫一 栋建筑物受损，多个地区有弹片坠落，救护人员已赶往现场。目前伤亡情况不明。 与此同时，以色列国防军 24日发表声明说，以搜救部队正前往以南部多个报告遭到袭击的地点。声明要求民众不要在这些地点聚集。 据央视新闻，当地时间3月24日，日本首相高市早苗在有关中东局势的内阁会议上表示，将从3月26日起开始释 放国家石油储备。此外，高市早苗还表示，针对中东产油国在日本国内储存的"产油国联合储备"，也预计将于 3月内开始释放。 对市场影响进入下一阶段 Eastspring Investments称，受伊朗战争影响，全球主要经济体和亚洲经济体的通胀预计将平均上升0.4个百分 点。持续上涨的能源价格很可能会逐渐影响到各国央行的通胀预期。 虽然大多数亚洲经济体短期内降息的可能性不大，但政策紧张局势可能会随着时间的推移而加剧。在股票方 面，预计股市将进一步回调，因为风险正从通胀转向增长。此外，油价波动可能会导致亚洲制造业经济体的工 业生产出现差异，不过支撑科技出口商的人工智能驱动需求应会保持强劲。午后，纳指期货延续 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on UOB, emphasizing low dividend risk and manageable asset quality despite geopolitical tensions [4][6]. Core Insights - UOB's management has signaled confidence in its capital position, with limited direct exposure to the Middle East and a strong CET1 level supporting its dividend and capital outlook [4][6]. - The bank's strategic shift towards capital efficiency aims to enhance returns on equity (ROE) by reducing real estate exposure and increasing trade financing [8]. - The geopolitical situation may enhance Singapore's status as a safe haven, potentially driving capital inflows and strengthening the bank's balance sheet [5]. Summary by Sections Direct Exposure to the Middle East - UOB has minimal direct exposure to the Middle East, with management closely monitoring secondary effects such as oil price increases and their potential impact on growth and asset quality [5]. Dividend and Capital Outlook - UOB has reaffirmed confidence in its dividend and capital prospects, supported by a robust CET1 level and a S$3 billion ongoing buyback program [6]. Asset Quality Management - UOB maintains controllable asset quality through proactive provisioning and risk management, with improvements noted in its U.S. commercial real estate portfolio [7]. Capital Efficiency Strategy - The bank is transitioning towards a capital efficiency model, focusing on lowering loan portfolio risks and enhancing ROE through strategic measures [8]. Catalysts for Growth - Accelerated growth in SME loan portfolios and successful integration of Citigroup's retail assets in four ASEAN countries are expected to contribute positively to net profits [9].