由于风险溢价接近历史最低水平，加之恒生指数业绩的下修，港股8月份没有延续继续大涨的行情，板 块业绩也出现了明显的分化。外卖大战是个不得不考虑的扰动，此外2季报后金融、高股息、本地股的 业绩下修也值得重视。板块方面，推荐： 鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的发言被市场解读成鸽派信号，深究其言论背后，主张的是长期劳动力与通胀的平 衡，这比四年前的FAIT框架更加关注适应当下的情形。9月将披露8月的通胀数据，这是企业在关税基 本落定后开始向消费者传递通胀的首月，数据的质量决定了后续降息的节奏。 美联储库克事件还在发酵，虽然后续反诉也需要时间，但这无疑会不断增加市场对美联储的独立性的担 忧。鉴于后续的不确定性，建议跟踪加密币的走势，一旦加密币迟迟不创新高，要考虑流动性对美股影 响恶化的可能。 A股：加速上行中，成交量是关键 A股加速上行，成交量是关键。国信证券复盘了过去四次牛市的顶部区域，2.9%的单日换手率是关键位 置。在加速上行的过程中，换手率的不断放大是必要的。当前换手率达到了2.8%，且温和放大，代表 目前市场健康，后续应关注该换手率上行的持续性。 此外，从基钦周期上，测算11-12月，明年4月是两个比较重要的时间窗口。在 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the performance divergence in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly after the second quarter earnings reports, with a notable lack of continuation in the upward trend of the Hang Seng Index due to earnings downgrades [3][4] - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, raw materials, and specific consumer segments that are showing strong performance despite overall market challenges [3][4] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the turnover rate in the A-share market, indicating that a turnover rate of 2.9% is a critical threshold for market health during upward trends [1][39] Group 2 - The report identifies key time windows in the Kitchin cycle, particularly November-December and April of the following year, as significant for market performance [2] - The report notes that the current A-share market is experiencing accelerated upward movement, driven by strong policy support and liquidity, similar to past bull markets [39][50] - The report suggests that the ongoing bull market may face a correction before the end of the Kitchin cycle, indicating potential volatility in the near future [50]

Market Outlook and Strategy - The improvement in liquidity narrative is expected to support a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, narrowing the gap with the rapidly rising A-share market [1][3] - The current earnings forecast rate for Hong Kong stocks is at its highest since 2022, indicating a positive outlook for earnings improvement [1][6] - It is recommended to focus on sectors that differ from A-shares, with a suggested investment sequence of innovative drugs first, followed by the internet sector, and finally new consumption [1][7] Sector Recommendations - Recommended sectors include innovative drugs, internet, and non-bank financials, with specific indices provided for each [1][9] - The innovative drug sector is highlighted due to alleviated liquidity risks and high growth potential [9] - The internet sector is seen as having fully priced in earnings pressures, making it a potential area for growth in a loosening liquidity environment [9] - Non-bank financials are considered a good base choice in a bull market, with valuations significantly lower than A-shares, indicating potential for catch-up [9] Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market saw a slight increase last week, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.27% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.89% [12][15] - The AH premium index expanded to 125.33, reflecting positive market sentiment [12] - The majority of sectors experienced gains, particularly non-essential consumption, information technology, and telecommunications, while materials, energy, and utilities lagged [15] Micro Liquidity Analysis - Average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached 280.3 billion HKD, indicating a significant increase in trading activity [18] - There was a net inflow of 179 billion HKD from southbound funds, primarily directed towards financial, information technology, and healthcare sectors [29] - Local ETFs saw a net inflow of 5.5 billion HKD last week, contributing to a total net inflow of 45.1 billion HKD year-to-date [24][27] Earnings Disclosure - As of August 25, 2023, 699 Hong Kong-listed companies have issued earnings warnings, with 41% indicating positive earnings revisions, the highest rate in three years [6][8] - The technology, pharmaceutical, and new consumption sectors in Hong Kong have a higher representation compared to A-shares, suggesting potential for continued earnings improvement [6] Valuation Levels - The forward P/E ratio for the Hang Seng Index is currently at 11.6X, placing it in the 69.3 percentile since 2020, while the Hang Seng Tech Index stands at 19.3X, in the 24.6 percentile since its inception [33][35]

Market Overview - A-shares exhibited strong performance with major indices collectively rising, including the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.86% to 3858.59 points, and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices rising by 1.61% and 2.22% respectively [2] - The total market turnover exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, indicating high participation from investors, with equity ETFs reaching a record high of 4 trillion yuan [2] - The Hong Kong market also saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.08% to 25866.49 points, driven by technology and property stocks [2] Industry Highlights and Driving Logic - The A-share market displayed notable sector rotation, with the communication sector leading with a 4.12% increase, supported by digital economy policies [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.72% due to global resource price recovery and economic recovery expectations [3] - The real estate sector rebounded collectively with a 3.47% increase, reflecting positive market response to growth-stabilizing policies [3] - In the Hong Kong market, the raw materials sector surged by 4.29%, and the property sector increased by 4.21%, driven by expectations of global liquidity easing [3] Underperforming Sectors and Driving Logic - The consumer sector in A-shares showed increased internal divergence, with traditional essential consumer areas performing relatively flat [4] - The banking sector lagged behind, aligning with the trend of capital migrating towards high-elasticity stocks [4] - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare sector faced pressure, with some stocks experiencing volatility due to short-term earnings expectation adjustments [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The current market is supported by a positive cycle of policy support and capital inflow, with economic recovery and industrial upgrade logic driving steady market growth [5] - Short-term market characteristics include significant sector rotation, with high-low switching trends within the technology growth sector [5] - It is recommended to strategically invest in quality stocks with policy benefits and technical barriers while being cautious of volatility risks in high-positioned stocks [5]

Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Geely Automobile is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HKD 25.00, representing a potential upside of 25%[5] - Li Auto is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HKD 72.00, indicating a potential upside of 7%[5] - Sany International is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HKD 8.70, suggesting a potential upside of 22%[5] - Luckin Coffee is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of USD 44.95, indicating a potential upside of 17%[5] - Tencent is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HKD 705.00, representing a potential upside of 19%[5] Group 2: Performance Overview - The basket of 26 long positions had an average return of 4.7%, compared to the MSCI China Index return of 5.2%[10] - Out of the 26 stocks, 11 stocks outperformed the benchmark[10] - The report includes a total of 26 stocks with varying sectors such as automotive, technology, and healthcare[5]

Company Overview - Zhongmu International Holdings Limited is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (01822.HK) and was established in 2009, registered in the Cayman Islands, with its headquarters in Hong Kong [3] - The company primarily engages in timber-related businesses, including furniture timber trading and processing, manufacturing and selling antique-style wooden furniture, and other wooden products, as well as car rental services [3] - Since its inception, the company has pursued excellence and innovation, expanding its business types under a diversified strategy, resulting in a solid customer base, diverse business structure, strong innovation capabilities, and market competitiveness [3] Financial Performance - As of December 31, 2024, Zhongmu International achieved total operating revenue of 330 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.19% [2] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 59.06 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year decrease of 94.69% [2] - The gross profit margin stood at 8.2%, and the debt-to-asset ratio was 41.18% [2] Stock Performance - On August 18, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.37%, closing at 25,176.85 points, while Zhongmu International's stock price rose by 11.11% to 0.16 HKD per share, with a trading volume of 605,900 shares and a turnover of 90,800 HKD, reflecting a volatility of 12.5% [1] - Over the past month, Zhongmu International has seen a cumulative increase of 6.67%, but it has experienced a year-to-date decline of 14.27%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 25.97% [2] Industry Valuation - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the raw materials industry (TTM) is 21.58 times, with a median of 6.3 times [2] - Zhongmu International's P/E ratio is 1.86 times, ranking third in the industry, compared to other companies such as Jun Dong Holdings (0.94 times), Dachen Biochemical Technology (1.15 times), China Sanjiang Chemical (4.08 times), Wuhan Organic (4.72 times), and Diwang Industrial Holdings (5.24 times) [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through 3700 points, indicating a "slow bull" market trend supported by improved risk appetite and liquidity [1][15] - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in new accounts, with 1.96 million new accounts opened in July, a year-on-year increase of 71% [1][2] - The market is expected to be boosted by upcoming events such as the military parade on September 3 and the Fourth Plenary Session, which may enhance market expectations [1][15] Economic Policies - The Federal Reserve is nearing a rate cut, with expectations for a September cut approaching 100% due to weakening employment and inflation data [2][11] - Domestic policies are gradually being implemented, with the central bank focusing on moderately easing monetary policy and several structural policies expected to be rolled out in the second half of the year [2][10] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes a "technology + dividend" approach, focusing on high-quality leaders benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend [3][16] - The technology sector is highlighted as a high-growth area, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" likely to focus on new productivity and advancements in AI technology [3][16] - High-dividend assets are expected to attract incremental capital, with stable performance and valuation advantages in dividend sectors [3][16] Economic Data Insights - In July, new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 389.3 billion yuan, but below expectations [6][7] - Retail sales in July grew by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous month, indicating a slowdown in consumption and investment [8][9] - The second quarter monetary policy report emphasizes the need for continued moderate easing of monetary policy [10] Global Market Trends - The U.S. stock market has shown a rebound, with healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors performing well, while the market anticipates a high probability of a rate cut in September [18] - The bond market has experienced a decline, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.71% to 1.73% [19] - Gold prices are expected to remain volatile in a high-risk appetite environment, with market expectations fluctuating ahead of the Jackson Hole central bank meeting [21]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance this year, driven by multiple core competitive advantages of Chinese assets, which are expected to enhance their attractiveness to international capital [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Driving Hong Kong Stock Market Strength - Three main factors are identified as driving the strength of the Hong Kong stock market: the "hard technology" wave, the rise of the "new economy," and the weakening of the US dollar [2]. - The "hard technology" revolution is expected to bring profound changes to production and lifestyle, with leading Chinese internet companies poised to capitalize on AI applications [2]. - The "new economy" has become a pillar of the Hong Kong stock market, with its market capitalization share increasing from 27% at the end of 2015 to an expected 51% by the end of 2024 [2]. - The weakening US dollar has led to a reallocation of funds, with a slowdown in foreign capital outflow from the Hong Kong market, making it an attractive option for global capital seeking undervalued assets [2]. Group 2: Core Competitive Advantages of Chinese Assets - Chinese assets possess three core competitive advantages: a complete modern industrial system, increased R&D investment leading to brand premium, and significant long-term investments in core technology fields [3]. - The manufacturing sector in China has achieved low-cost, high-efficiency capabilities through vertical integration and scale advantages [3]. - Chinese companies are increasingly recognized for their global competitiveness in areas such as AI, semiconductors, new energy, and aerospace [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in A-Share Market - The A-share market presents four key investment opportunities: stable cash returns in sectors like telecommunications, finance, and utilities; potential in the internet sector and consumer sub-industries due to policy support and AI commercialization; growth in the biopharmaceutical industry driven by improved policies and global competitiveness; and a stabilization in the real estate sector along with improved prospects for chemicals and raw materials [3].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the current market is experiencing a liquidity-driven bull market, with the potential for a transition to a fundamental bull market by the end of the year, contingent on external factors such as global tariff resolutions and fiscal expansions in major economies [3][4][87] - The report identifies a significant performance gap between growth stocks, particularly in the ChiNext index, and value stocks, suggesting that the ChiNext index is currently undervalued and poised for further gains [2][31][50] - The report highlights the increasing inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the technology sector, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards growth-oriented assets [12][32][44] Group 2 - The report outlines a "three-headed bull" market scenario, which includes a short-term liquidity bull market, a mid-term fundamental bull market, and a long-term transition from old to new economic drivers, suggesting a comprehensive market recovery [3][4][5] - The report notes that the current market environment is conducive to a structural shift towards "middle assets," which are expected to outperform as the economy stabilizes and earnings begin to recover [46][47][56] - The report indicates that the current valuation of the ChiNext index is at a historical low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.89, suggesting a relative valuation advantage compared to other major indices [50][51][52]

Group 1 - The essence of the "anti-involution" policy is "correction" rather than "stimulation," aiming to reshape the logic of industrial competition [1][5] - The impact of the "anti-involution" policy on prices is structural and mild, with the key variables for future price trends being the strength of demand recovery and the pace of policy coordination [1][5] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to improvements in supply-demand relationships in certain industries, resulting in positive changes in pricing [2] Group 2 - Since the beginning of the year, signals of the "anti-involution" policy have been continuously reinforced, with various measures taken to address "involution-style" competition [2] - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law prohibits selling goods below cost, providing a legal basis for combating "involution-style" competition [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in July remained at a low of -3.6% year-on-year, but the month-on-month decline has narrowed, indicating some stabilization in industrial prices [3][4] Group 3 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains weak overall, but the core CPI has rebounded for three consecutive months, benefiting from reduced price wars in the automotive and home appliance sectors [3] - The improvement in PPI is primarily concentrated in upstream raw materials and industrial products, which have a low direct correlation with consumer spending [4] - The transmission mechanism from PPI to CPI remains ineffective, as insufficient terminal consumer demand limits companies' pricing power [4]