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新能源及有色金属日报:仓单持续注销,关注新仓单注册情况-20250624
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 03:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market are weak, with a possible decline in the consumer end and the lithium carbonate futures market. Short - term attention should be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. It is recommended to sell on rallies for hedging [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Market Analysis - On June 23, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2509 was 58,860 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 59,120 yuan/ton, a 0.77% drop from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 259,487 lots, and the open interest was 356,954 lots, an increase of 2,607 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 656,617 lots, an increase of 9,340 lots. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 167,517 lots to 282,439 lots, and the overall speculation degree was 0.43. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 26,779 lots, a decrease of 1,014 lots from the previous day. The futures were at a discount of 830 yuan/ton to the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate [1]. Spot Market - On June 23, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 59,300 - 60,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 57,850 - 58,850 yuan/ton, also a 4,500 - yuan/ton decrease. The market continued to have an oversupply situation. Supply was abundant, while downstream demand was weak, with only rigid demand for restocking. There was no sign of concentrated restocking. The market showed a differentiated situation: large lithium salt enterprises had relatively firm prices, while some small and medium - sized enterprises' prices were loose. The overall market trading was light [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sell on rallies for hedging. There is no suitable strategy for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4].
碳酸锂:供增需减,关注仓单注销矛盾
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 09:34
二 〇 二 四 年 度 2025 年 6 月 22 日 碳酸锂:供增需减,关注仓单注销矛盾 供应:锂辉石精矿价格周下跌 9 美元/吨,跌幅较小,澳洲发运量连续两周处于低位。冶炼端后续盐 湖和非矿新投项目增加,锂盐供应维持增量预期。冶炼端产量和开工率维持增长,本周碳酸锂产量 18462 吨,增幅 1.85%。冶炼端整体开工率 53.64%,环比上周提升 1.18 个百分点。 需求:本周新能源车零售销量为 24.8 万辆,未见明显的销量增长。受国补资金不足的情况影响,市 场担忧后续需求增长乏力。财联社调查表示:"中央安排超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新的资金总规 模是 3000 亿元,今年 1 月和 4 月已分别下达两批共计 1620 亿元中央资金,支持地方做好一、二季度消 费品以旧换新工作。后续还有 1380 亿元中央资金将在三、四季度分批有序下达,同时地方也将相应配套 和自行安排足够的地方资金。"储能方面,5 月峰值后预计储能需求将呈现为回落状态。本周正极材料库存 小幅增加。 库存:碳酸锂库存总量累增,主要为上游和贸易商累库。碳酸锂库存 13.5 吨,环比上周增长 1352 吨。期货仓单数量减少 4250 吨 ...
新能源及有色金属周报:消费端存在不确定性,碳酸锂盘面偏弱运行-20250622
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 08:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot price of lithium carbonate declined slightly, and the futures fluctuated narrowly following the macro - sentiment. The overall market situation is affected by factors on the supply, demand, inventory, and profit sides [1][2][3]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weak. If the consumer side weakens significantly, there is still room for the lithium carbonate market to decline. However, attention should be paid to the downstream's willingness to accept warehouse receipts [8]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Spot Market - **Price**: The lithium carbonate futures weakened this week. The main contract 2509 closed at 58,900 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.81%. The average price of battery - grade spot was 60,000 yuan/ton, down 1.23% from the previous week, and the average price of industrial - grade spot was 59,000 yuan/ton, down 1.26% from last week. The futures were at a discount of 1,500 yuan/ton to battery - grade lithium carbonate [1]. - **Supply**: The weekly output increased slightly to 18,500 tons, with an increase of 335 tons. The output from different sources all showed a slight increase [1]. - **Consumption**: The output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.92% month - on - month, ternary materials increased by 0.30%, cobalt - lithium decreased by 0.50%, and manganese - lithium decreased by 0.67%. The demand at the battery end is difficult to increase, and the industry chain is in a destocking trend [2]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry increased. The spot inventory was 134,900 tons, an increase of 1,352 tons from last week. The futures warehouse receipt volume decreased to 30,000 tons [2]. - **Profit**: Lithium ore prices have been relatively stable recently. Enterprises purchasing lithium ore externally have difficulty in making profits and need to cooperate with futures hedging. Salt lake lithium extraction maintains profitability. Recycling material manufacturers are facing losses, and the processing fees of processing enterprises are in a competitive situation [2]. Other Products - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The output this week was 5,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.37%. The overall supply of the market is stable, but the industry's operating rate remains at a low level [3]. - **Cobalt**: The output of domestic cobalt sulfate is expected to be 1,080 metal tons this week, a decrease from last week, and the operating rate has also declined. The output of cobalt tetroxide is expected to be 2,415 tons, remaining stable compared to last week [4]. Market Transactions - **Lithium Carbonate**: Spot transactions were dull, and the basis of spot quotations weakened. Downstream procurement is still mainly based on long - term agreements and customer - supplied materials, and the demand for spot purchases is poor [3]. - **Cobalt**: The cobalt salt market is in the off - season of demand, and the demand growth momentum is limited. The downstream purchasing atmosphere is not good, and the market is mainly executing existing orders [5]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: If the consumer side weakens significantly, the lithium carbonate market still has room to decline. If the market rebounds, upstream enterprises should mainly sell for hedging at high prices [8]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money call options and use bear spread options [8].
雅化集团第一季净利大增452.3% 拟组建雅化锂业集团整合锂业务
Chang Jiang Shang Bao· 2025-06-18 23:44
长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 江楚雅 雅化集团(002497.SZ)加速整合锂业务。 6月17日晚间,雅化集团公告,将以全资子公司四川雅化锂业科技有限公司为平台,更名为"雅化锂业集 团",并将5家涉及锂业务的子公司股权无偿划转至该集团。此举旨在统筹锂产业资源,提升协同效率, 降低业务成本,推动锂产业高质量发展。 随着2024年锂价中枢筑底回升,以及公司产能的逐步释放,盈利能力显著回升。2024年,公司归母净利 润为2.57亿元,同比增长539.36%;扣非归母净利润为1.64亿元,同比增长176.55%。2025年一季度延续 增长趋势,公司净利润同比增长452.32%至8246.44万元。 拟组建雅化锂业集团 资料显示,2014年,雅化集团通过收购国理公司、兴晟锂业,大踏步进入锂业领域,并形成民爆与锂盐 双主业驱动运行格局。 自2022年起,公司便明确提出"加快发展布局锂产业"的目标,通过自主矿山开发、多渠道资源保供、产 能扩建等举措,逐步构建起覆盖锂矿勘探、采选、锂盐加工、市场销售的完整产业链。此次组建"雅化 锂业集团",正是这一战略的落地。 6月17日晚间,雅化集团公告,将以全资子公司四川雅化锂业科技有限 ...
【财经分析】过剩格局延续 碳酸锂何时见底?
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-18 11:17
新华财经南昌6月18日电(记者崔璐)今年以来,碳酸锂价格仍在不断探底。业内人士分析,受供需关 系影响,碳酸锂价格下行周期尚未结束。预计直至相对高成本的矿山做出减产等举措后,碳酸锂价格才 有可能迎来向上变化。 碳酸锂跌破6万元 今年1至6月,碳酸锂现货价格在年初出现小幅拉升,后续持续下跌。期货行情与现货波动基本一致,广 州期货交易所数据显示,碳酸锂期货主力合约1月20日最高至81680元/吨,而5月末则跌破60000元/吨 关口。 业内人士分析,碳酸锂价格下行的原因主要是供需失衡。从供给端看,此前投入的国内外锂盐项目产能 今年还在陆续释放。如盐湖股份新建的4万吨/年锂盐一体化项目近期完成中交验收;赣锋锂业旗下的 阿根廷Mariana锂盐湖项目一期于今年2月正式投产。上海钢联预计,2025年全球碳酸锂总产量约160万 吨。 而从需求端看,国内需求比较稳定,海外需求则呈现不确定性。中国作为新能源汽车与储能的全球第一 大市场,对碳酸锂的需求保持稳步增长。但海外方面,受成本、电力保障和能源问题等因素影响,欧盟 和美国的电动化步伐均出现阶段性放缓。上海钢联预计,2025年全球碳酸锂总需求量约132万吨。 据安泰科发布的报 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:锂矿及锂盐价格偏弱,碳酸锂盘面偏弱运行-20250617
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 03:05
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-17 锂矿及锂盐价格偏弱,碳酸锂盘面偏弱运行 市场分析 2025年6月16日,碳酸锂主力合约2509开于60000元/吨,收于59780元/吨,当日收盘价较昨日结算价下跌0.02%。当 日成交量为218180手,持仓量为300422手,较前一交易日增加152990手,根据SMM现货报价,目前期货贴水电碳 720元/吨。所有合约总持仓615599手,较前一交易日增加17641手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少37150手, 成交量减少,整体投机度为0.59 。当日碳酸锂仓单32043手,较上个交易日减少75手。 碳酸锂现货:根据SMM数据,2025年6月16日电池级碳酸锂报价6-6.1万元/吨,较前一交易日下跌0.015万元/吨,工 业级碳酸锂报价5.84-5.94万元/吨,较前一交易日下跌0.015万元/吨。根据SMM调研,碳酸锂现货成交价格重心小 幅下移。从当前碳酸锂市场供需格局来看:供应端,市场可流通量级仍保持较为充足的水平;需求端,下游材料 企业采购策略维持谨慎,仅维持刚性补库需求,尚未出现规模性备库行为。在前期宏观情绪扰动逐步消化后,碳 酸锂期货价格已回归基 ...
永杉锂业: 关于2024年股票期权激励计划预留部分授予结果的公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-13 11:38
Core Points - The company has completed the registration of the reserved stock options under the 2024 stock option incentive plan, granting a total of 3.98 million stock options to 29 eligible participants [1][2]. Stock Option Grant Details - The grant date for the reserved stock options is set for April 15, 2025, with the registration completion date on June 13, 2025 [1]. - The total number of reserved stock options granted is 3.98 million, with an exercise price of 7.46 yuan per share [1][2]. - The stock options represent 0.78% of the company's total share capital [2]. Exercise Conditions - The stock options have a maximum validity period of 60 months, with specific exercise periods defined [3]. - The first exercise period allows for 50% of the options to be exercised 12 months after the grant date, and the second exercise period allows for the remaining 50% to be exercised 24 months after the first period [4]. - If performance targets are not met, the options will be canceled [4]. Performance Targets - The performance targets for the first exercise period require a net profit of no less than 70 million yuan for 2025, and for the second period, a net profit of no less than 100 million yuan for 2026 [4]. - The exercise ratio is contingent on the achievement of these performance targets, with a scale from 0% to 100% based on performance completion [4]. Personal Performance Evaluation - Individual performance evaluations will determine the exercise ratio for each participant, categorized into four levels (A, B, C, D) with corresponding coefficients [5]. - The actual number of options that can be exercised by an individual cannot exceed their planned exercise amount for the year [5]. Financial Impact - The company will account for the stock options in accordance with relevant accounting standards, estimating the impact on financial results over the years 2025 to 2027 [6]. - The estimated cost of the stock options will be adjusted based on the number of eligible participants and performance metrics [6].
盐湖股份(000792) - 000792盐湖股份投资者关系管理信息20250613
2025-06-13 07:53
Production Capacity and Structure - The company has established a potassium fertilizer production capacity of 500,000 tons per year, with the potassium fertilizer subsidiary responsible for approximately 400,000 tons, accounting for 80% of total capacity [2] - The remaining 100,000 tons are produced by subsidiaries with unique processes, enabling differentiated production and supply of various potassium fertilizer products [2] Market Outlook - In 2024, China's total potassium chloride imports are projected to reach 12.63 million tons, a 9% year-on-year increase, with an import dependency of 67% [2] - The demand for potassium fertilizer is expected to remain stable and increase due to national strategies aimed at ensuring food security and enhancing agricultural productivity [2] - Geopolitical factors have led to significant price fluctuations in potassium fertilizer, with international prices rising due to supply constraints from major producers [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its potassium salt resource reserves through geological exploration and resource acquisitions to ensure long-term supply stability [3] - A project cooperation agreement has been signed for the control of potassium mining projects in Canada and Spain, focusing on resource evaluation and economic feasibility [4] Technological Advancements - The company has developed five core processing technologies for potassium extraction, establishing itself as a leader in the industry [5] - The new lithium salt integrated project is expected to enhance lithium recovery rates by approximately 25% and significantly reduce energy consumption [7] Cost Management - The company emphasizes meticulous cost control across all operational aspects, aiming to reduce production costs through standardized management and efficiency improvements [10] - Strategies include optimizing sales and logistics costs, as well as labor costs, to enhance overall profitability [10] Shareholder Returns - The company is exploring diversified shareholder return methods and is committed to maintaining a stable profit distribution policy [9] - The integration into the China Minmetals Corporation framework is expected to enhance operational efficiency and competitive advantage [12] Future Development Strategy - The company aims to build a world-class salt lake industry base, focusing on sustainable development and resource optimization [12] - It plans to leverage the advantages of the China Minmetals Corporation to enhance its role in national strategic resource security and green development [13]
新能源及有色金属日报:碳酸锂现货价格企稳,但实际成交一般-20250611
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 03:26
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-11 碳酸锂现货价格企稳,但实际成交一般 市场分析 2025年6月10日,碳酸锂主力合约2507开于60360元/吨,收于60760元/吨,当日收盘价较昨日结算价收涨0.16%。当 日成交量为204780手,持仓量为194731手,较前一交易日减少17958手,根据SMM现货报价,目前期货升水电碳410 元/吨。所有合约总持仓555779手,较前一交易日减少7072手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加101365手,成 交量356613,整体投机度为0.51。当日碳酸锂仓单32947手,较上个交易日减少172手。 碳酸锂现货:根据SMM数据,2025年6月10日电池级碳酸锂报价5.97-6.1万元/吨,较前一交易日上涨0.01万元/吨, 工业级碳酸锂报价5.825-5.925万元/吨,较前一交易日上涨0.01万元/吨。据SMM数据,碳酸锂现货成交价格重心呈 现小幅上行。当前碳酸锂现货价格维持窄幅震荡,市场呈现供需博弈格局。下游材料厂采购意愿相对低迷,多数 企业维持低库存策略,观望情绪浓厚,等待价格进一步探底。而上游锂盐厂虽仍以挺价为主,但受库存压力等其 他因素影响,部 ...
雅化集团(002497.SZ)深度报告:民爆为盾,锂盐为矛
Minsheng Securities· 2025-06-11 00:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is driven by dual engines of civil explosives and lithium salt, with strong growth potential in both sectors. The civil explosives business provides stable income, while the lithium salt business is expected to recover as lithium prices have bottomed out [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Dual Business Model - The company has established a dual business model combining civil explosives and lithium salt, which supports long-term growth. It has undergone significant expansion through acquisitions since its establishment in 1952 [10][11]. 2. Lithium Salt Business - The lithium salt business has seen a significant increase in resource availability, positioning it as a key growth driver. The current lithium price of 54,000 CNY/ton is near the cash cost support level, indicating a potential bottoming out of prices [2][32]. - The company has multiple channels for resource expansion, with a self-sufficiency rate expected to exceed 25% by 2025. It has secured priority supply rights for the Li family mine and aims to increase processing capacity significantly [2][39]. - The company has established long-term supply agreements with major clients such as Tesla and CATL, ensuring stable demand for its products [2][3]. 3. Civil Explosives Business - The civil explosives segment has shown stable growth, benefiting from domestic infrastructure projects and international acquisitions. The company has expanded its footprint in the civil explosives market through strategic acquisitions [3][11]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing infrastructure projects in China, particularly in regions like Sichuan and Xinjiang [3][11]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see significant profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 580 million, 970 million, and 1.25 billion CNY, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are forecasted to be 22, 13, and 10 times [3][4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming production ramp-up from the company's own lithium mines in Africa will enhance profitability, with both volume and price expected to rise in the lithium segment [3][4].