Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai closed at 103,540 yuan, while London copper slightly retreated to 13,142 USD [3][13] - The core CPI in the US for December 2025 was 2.6%, lower than expected, leading to a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which limits expectations for interest rate cuts [4][14] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw an increase in copper warehouse receipts by 5,505 tons to 122,100 tons, while LME copper inventories rose by 4,325 tons to 141,500 tons [4][14] - Chile's copper exports to China in December 2025 were approximately 751,000 tons, showing a month-on-month improvement but still relatively low [4][14] - Market sentiment is currently warm, supported by strong fundamentals and pre-holiday stocking, with expectations for copper prices to maintain high-level fluctuations [4][14] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel prices continue to operate at high levels due to uncertainties regarding Indonesian policies [4][14] - The Indonesian government is currently calculating the 2026 RKAB quota, aiming to match supply and demand, which has somewhat alleviated market concerns [4][14] - Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile until Indonesian policies are clarified, with the Shanghai nickel reference range set between 130,000 and 160,000 yuan per ton [4][14] Group 3: Silicon and Aluminum - The price of polysilicon remains low due to a decline in market sentiment, with global production expected to drop to around 110,000 tons in January [5][15] - The cancellation of export tax rebates for the photovoltaic downstream may temporarily benefit exports, but the impact on polysilicon demand is expected to be limited [5][15] - Aluminum prices are under pressure, with the 05 contract experiencing a significant drop and overall supply remaining excessive at around 96 million tons [5][15] - The 05 aluminum contract is expected to operate within a range of 2,500 to 2,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to hold short positions [5][15] Group 4: Zinc and Lead - Zinc prices showed strong fluctuations, with domestic TC prices stabilizing around 1,100 yuan, while the willingness to accept prices below 1,000 yuan is low [7][17] - The lead market is experiencing a slight recovery in supply due to adjustments in primary smelter maintenance plans, although demand remains weak [8][18] - The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16,800 to 17,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation for range trading [8][18] Group 5: Precious Metals - The US December CPI data met expectations, leading to a slowdown in the upward momentum of precious metals, with only silver continuing to perform strongly [9][19] - Geopolitical risks remain, particularly with rising tensions between the US and Iran, and ongoing concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [9][19] - The market is awaiting further guidance on tariffs and geopolitical developments, with current precious metal prices at high levels and significant volatility expected [9][19]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Industry Service Alliance Conference in Zhengzhou focused on enhancing the futures industry's service to the real economy, addressing challenges in differentiation, digital transformation, compliance, and talent cultivation [1] Group 1: Service to the Real Economy - The futures market's core mission is to serve the real economy, but challenges such as cognitive differences, insufficient tools, and a lack of professional talent hinder effective service [2] - A multi-layered risk management service system is needed, requiring collaboration among regulatory bodies, exchanges, futures companies, and real enterprises [2] - Large state-owned enterprises prioritize compliance and precision in service, with training and simulations improving understanding of hedging in industries like steel [2] Group 2: Differentiation and Development - Differentiation is crucial for futures companies to overcome competition and achieve high-quality development [3] - Futures companies should focus on their backgrounds: industry-focused firms should deepen service in the supply chain, while those with brokerage backgrounds should integrate investment research with AI [3] - The asset management business needs to overcome challenges in product management, fundraising, and research support to avoid homogenization [3] Group 3: Digital Transformation - Digital transformation is essential for enhancing service efficiency, with AI and big data as key drivers [5] - Companies are developing intelligent systems based on AI to improve efficiency without replacing human roles [6] - Regulatory clarity on financial technology is necessary to support innovation while ensuring risk control [6] Group 4: Talent Support - Talent shortages are a significant barrier to the futures industry's development, necessitating partnerships between companies and educational institutions to enhance talent supply [8] - A scientific incentive system is recommended to retain talent and enhance their sense of belonging [8] - Practical empowerment through industry research is essential for young researchers to develop their professional skills [9] Group 5: Compliance and Ecosystem Building - The future of compliance in the securities and futures industry will shift towards a dual accountability model for companies and individuals [7] - Building a diverse cooperation ecosystem involving banks, insurance, and private equity is vital for long-term development [7] - The industry should focus on customer needs to create a service ecosystem that enhances financial literacy and market understanding [7] Group 6: Summary and Future Directions - The conference highlighted the importance of serving the real economy, with a focus on optimizing tools, addressing funding constraints, and enhancing talent supply [10] - Differentiation and asset management transformation are key paths for futures companies, with knowledge-based services emerging as growth points [10] - The Industry Service Alliance aims to foster collaboration across institutions and fields to support the futures industry's long-term development [10]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have reached historic highs, driven by factors such as concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainties [1][5][7]. Price Movements - As of January 12, gold spot and futures prices surpassed $4600 per ounce, with spot gold at $4584.725 (up 1.68%) and COMEX futures at $4597.6 (up 2.15%) [1][2]. - Silver also saw significant gains, with spot silver reaching $84.059 (up 5.38%) and COMEX silver at $83.91 (up 5.76%) [1][2]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures hit a record high of 1031.3 yuan per gram, closing at 1026.28 yuan (up 2.57%), while silver futures reached 20998 yuan per kilogram (up 14.42%) [1]. Market Dynamics - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, particularly the risk of military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which has increased demand for safe-haven assets [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve's independence is under scrutiny due to ongoing investigations, which may impact market expectations regarding monetary policy [5][7]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves, with the latest data showing that domestic gold reserves reached approximately 2306.323 tons, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases [5]. - Analysts suggest that if central banks increase their gold reserves by just 1%, it could push gold prices up by about $1000 [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on precious metals, with expectations that the current upward trend will continue, particularly in light of the political uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve [6][7]. - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price target for Q4 2026 to $4800, indicating strong confidence in gold's long-term value [7].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a strong performance, with nickel futures prices rising to 142,570.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.45% [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, domestic nickel iron prices have increased to approximately 958 yuan/nickel point, with iron mills experiencing reduced losses and some regions returning to profitability, while overall production remains low [2] - Demand analysis indicates that the cost of nickel iron for stainless steel has decreased, improving steel mill profits and leading to expectations of high production levels; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, contributing a slight increase in demand from ternary batteries [2] - As of January 9, 2026, nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China decreased by 122,600 wet tons to 13,197,700 wet tons, reflecting a decline of 0.92% [2] Group 3 - The outlook for nickel indicates a mix of weak fundamentals and strong expectations, with no tightening of supply at the mining level; although prices at the smelting end are strengthening, demand is currently in a low season, and uncertainties in policy remain, leading to a slight recovery in nickel prices driven by improved market sentiment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has surged, breaking historical records and reaching $4568.66 per ounce, reflecting strong demand driven by geopolitical risks and investment trends [1][3][8]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Spot gold prices have consistently increased, surpassing key thresholds of $4400, $4500, and $4550, with a recent peak at $4600 per ounce [3]. - The World Gold Council reports that gold has performed exceptionally well in 2025, with expectations of a further increase of 15% to 30% in 2026 [8]. - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to rising geopolitical risks related to Iran and Venezuela, which have rekindled market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6][8]. Group 2: Silver Market Performance - Spot silver has also seen significant gains, with prices approaching $84 per ounce and a reported increase of 4.28% to $83.33 per ounce [4]. Group 3: Domestic Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry brands have raised their prices in response to the rising gold prices, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang increasing their gold prices to 1426 RMB and 1428 RMB per gram, respectively [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts from Saxo Bank suggest that the strong performance of gold, silver, and platinum reflects a combination of geopolitical hedging, financial flows, and structural investment themes [6]. - Citic Securities predicts a high certainty of gold price increases, driven by expectations of dual monetary and fiscal easing in the U.S. and persistent stagflation pressures [9]. - The outlook for gold prices remains optimistic, with projections indicating that international gold prices could exceed $5100 per ounce by the end of 2026 under neutral assumptions [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data presents a mixed picture, with a decline in unemployment and an increase in average hourly wages, but disappointing job growth, leading to a complex market reaction regarding interest rate expectations and supporting gold and silver prices amid geopolitical tensions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for December showed an increase of only 50,000 jobs, below the expected 60,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, lower than the anticipated 4.5% [3]. - The total job growth for 2025 was only 584,000, marking the weakest annual growth since 2020, indicating a persistent weakness in the labor market [2][3]. - The downward revision of job data for October and November by a total of 76,000 further exacerbates concerns about the labor market's structural weaknesses [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Gold and silver prices have been rising due to the mixed non-farm data and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which has heightened market risk aversion [1][2]. - Central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, with a reported increase of 0.93 tons in December, indicating strong demand for precious metals [2]. - The upcoming release of the December CPI data is crucial, as a lower-than-expected core CPI could further support precious metal prices by reinforcing expectations of continued monetary easing [2][3]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical developments, particularly in Iran and the broader Middle East, are driving market sentiment and influencing the strong performance of precious metals [1][3]. - The expectation that the Federal Reserve may not need to tighten monetary policy further due to weak job growth and a declining unemployment rate is providing additional support for gold [4]. - The potential impact of the Supreme Court's decision regarding tariffs on precious metals could introduce short-term volatility, necessitating caution among investors [2].

1. Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.166, UK 4.374, France 3.522, Germany 2.862, Italy 3.494, Spain 3.247, Switzerland 0.265, Greece 3.351, Japan 2.090, Brazil 6.223, China 1.869, Australia 4.688, New Zealand 4.406 [1] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.533, UK 3.638, Germany 2.105, Japan 1.143, Italy 2.205, China (1Y yield) 1.281, Australia 4.011 [1] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.366, South Africa zar 16.493, Korean won 1459.400, Thai baht 31.425, Malaysian ringgit 4.073; on - shore RMB 6.978, off - shore RMB 6.976, RMB mid - price 7.013, Dec NDF 6.856 [1] - The latest stock indices of major economies: S&P 500 6966.280, Dow Jones Industrial Average 49504.070, Nasdaq 23671.350, Mexican index 66062.620, UK index 10124.600, France CAC 8362.090, Germany DAX 25261.640, Spanish index 17649.000, Japanese Nikkei 51939.890, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 26231.790, Shanghai Composite Index 4120.426, Taiwan index 30288.960, South Korean index 4586.320, Indian index 8936.754, Thai index 1254.090, Malaysian index 1686.540, Australian index 9045.917, emerging - economy index 1452.350 [1] - The latest credit - bond indices: Eurozone investment - grade credit - bond index 266.512, Eurozone high - yield credit - bond index 412.380 [1] 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices: A - shares 4120.43, CSI 300 4758.92, SSE 50 3134.32, ChiNext 3327.81, CSI 500 8056.69; percentage changes: A - shares 0.92%, CSI 300 0.45%, SSE 50 0.39%, ChiNext 0.77%, CSI 500 2.05% [2] Valuation - PE(TTM) values: CSI 300 14.41, SSE 50 12.01, CSI 500 36.43, S&P 500 27.82, Germany DAX 19.60;环比 changes: CSI 300 0.06, SSE 50 0.03, CSI 500 0.71, S&P 500 0.17, Germany DAX 0.10 [2] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - year interest: S&P 500 - 0.57, Germany DAX 2.24;环比 changes: S&P 500 - 0.02, Germany DAX - 0.03 [2] Fund Flows - Latest values: A - shares 474.37, main board 104.84, ChiNext 266.81, CSI 300 112.68; 5 - day average values: A - shares 74.03, main board - 105.04, ChiNext 107.99, CSI 300 20.61 [2] 3. Transaction Amount and Other Data - Latest transaction amounts: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 31226.95, CSI 300 6687.89, SSE 50 1777.40, small - and medium - sized board 6596.39, ChiNext 8720.72;环比 changes: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 3224.30, CSI 300 381.33, SSE 50 - 101.56, small - and medium - sized board 696.82, ChiNext 1217.37 [3] - Main contract basis: IF - 15.12 (- 0.32%), IH 0.48 (0.02%), IC - 18.89 (- 0.23%) [3] 4. Treasury Futures Trading Data - Closing prices: T2303 107.77, TF2303 105.57, T2306 107.69, TF2306 105.57; percentage changes: T2303 - 0.02%, TF2303 - 0.03%, T2306 - 0.01%, TF2306 - 0.03% [3] 5. Fund Rates - Fund rates: R001 1.3480%, R007 1.5157%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5950%; daily changes: R001 - 18.00BP, R007 - 1.00BP, SHIBOR - 3M 0.00BP [3]

来源：央视财经 开年以来，白银期货价格高位波动，沪银期货主力合约大幅上涨。上海期货交易所发布通知，调整了白 银期货交易规则。 国泰君安期货研究所首席咨询师 陶金峰：今年元旦以来，国内的白银期货 ，（截至1月9日收盘）目前 涨幅是超过9%，接近10%，而且（1月7日）再创上市以来的新高。国际的白银期货也是再创上市以来 新高，整体上还是在高位的、偏强的运行状态。 交易保证金比例则根据套保持仓和一般持仓，分别调整为17%和18%。 据了解，近期相关标准已进行多次调整。 卓创资讯贵金属分析师 黄加奇：本轮调整是整体将保证金和涨跌停板上调了1个百分点。扩涨跌停板是 考虑到当前市场不确定性或造成振幅的扩大，而本身白银外盘无论是伦敦现货还是纽约期货，都不设有 涨跌停板，进而避免极端行情下国内盘面的跳空。 业内人士表示，全球范围内白银价格的大幅波动带来了市场投机氛围的升温。 根据上海期货交易所最新政策调整，自1月9日收盘起， 白银期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为16%； 白银贸易商向记者表示，自去年十月份以来，部分买家加价购买，市场出现阶段性抢购行情。随着国内 外白银交易政策的密集出台，近几个交易日，白银期货交易波动依然较大，但 ...

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