1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry will be in a cycle of accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity and entering the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The downstream demand is expected to strengthen, with the photovoltaic industry potentially boosting demand, while organic silicon and aluminum alloy enterprises maintaining stable demand. The price will show a wide - range fluctuation. Suggestions include looking for opportunities to go long on industrial silicon at low prices, SI2509 - SI2511 positive spread trading, and going long on industrial silicon while shorting polysilicon [4]. - Positive factors are the "anti - involution" policy, limited downward space for costs, and better - than - expected demand. Negative factors are the release of production capacity in Southwest China during the wet season and potential weakening of demand due to industrial integration in the polysilicon industry [5][6]. Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental and "anti - involution" logics alternate. Fundamentally, lower electricity prices and higher profits may increase production capacity. However, demand growth is limited, and high inventory persists. If industry integration is effective, it may drive prices up. The suggestion is to focus on PS2508 - PS2511 positive spread trading [8]. - Positive factors are potential industry integration and increased external demand from the US. Negative factors are inventory accumulation if integration fails [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The industrial silicon main contract shows wide - range fluctuations, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.7%, a daily increase of 1.09%, and the current volatility at the 96.4% historical percentile in 3 years. The main contract closing price is 8695 yuan/ton, up 3.33% from the previous period; the trading volume is 1473993 lots, up 54.58%; the open interest is 402890 lots, up 9.54%. SI09 - 11 spread is 90 yuan/ton, up 28.57% [2][13][15]. Spot Data - The prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in different regions have increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of East China 553 is 8850 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. The East China 553 basis is 435 yuan/ton, up 55.36%, and the East China 421 - 553 spread is 350 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipts are 50090 lots, down 139 lots or 3.58% from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventories in different delivery warehouses have different changes [24]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The polysilicon main contract also shows wide - range fluctuations, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 44.99%, a daily increase of 0.01%, and the current volatility at the 84.73% historical percentile in 3 years. The main contract closing price is 41765 yuan/ton, up 1.05%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts have different changes. PS08 - 09 spread is 320 yuan/ton, down 3.03% [2][27][29]. Spot Data - The prices of different types of polysilicon, such as P - type and N - type, have different daily changes. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index is 43.45 yuan/kg, down 3.01% [34]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The polysilicon main contract basis is 1685 yuan/ton, down 51.44% from the previous period. The warehouse receipts in different regions remain unchanged [41][43]. Risk Management Strategies - For inventory management of industrial silicon and polysilicon, when product inventory is high, strategies include shorting futures, selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options. For procurement management, when there is a risk of rising raw material prices, strategies include buying forward futures contracts, selling put options, and buying out - of - the - money call options [2]

2025/07/14 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 日报 . 烧碱产业风险管理日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2200-2600 | 15.38% | 6.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 产成品库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下 | 跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可 以根据企业的库存情况，做 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降 | SH2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 2600-2650 | | | | | 空烧碱期货来锁定利润，弥 | | | | | | | | | 补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | | | | 低成本，若烧碱 ...

Core Insights - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and market analyst [1][2] - He has covered all futures markets traded in the U.S. and has worked with various financial news and advisory services [1][2] Company and Industry Summary - Jim Wyckoff operates the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational, and trading advisory service, providing insights into market trends [2] - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com, showcasing his expertise in market analysis [2] - Wyckoff is also a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service, indicating his involvement in agricultural market analysis [2] - He provides daily market roundups and technical specials on Kitco.com, making his insights accessible to a broader audience [3]

南华贵金属日报: 金震银涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月11日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场金震银涨，周边资产看，美指、美债收益率震荡略偏强，美股和比特币上涨，原油下跌， 南华有色金属大涨。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3333美元/盎司，+0.36%；美白银2509合约收报于 37.625美元/盎司，+2.72%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约收报773.3元/克，+0.49%；SHFE白银2510合约收 8919元/千克，+0.22%。关税方面，特朗普对铜征收50%的关税，8月1日起生效，引发海外铜铜库存抢在8 月1日关税落地前运送至美国，铜市上涨，以及美国相交伦敦铜溢价走扩。8月"大限"前缅甸争取特朗普猛 砍关税，提议对美或可零关税。巴西总统：将与美国进行关税谈判，若无效将对等反制。美联储理事沃勒表 示，可以考虑7月降息，支持继续缩表，增加短期资产比重。沃勒是美联储当红理事，也是美国总统特朗普考 虑提名为下一任美联储主席的候选人之一。特朗普此前曾多次呼吁美联储降息。 【降息预期与基金持仓 】 降息预期总体稳定。据CME"美 ...

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another. Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a ...

权教据日报 etif = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 = 0 =: F0251925 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期 1.2 - J 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 中证1000PCR走势 1.2 08 0.6 0 4 0.2 手 PCR 上证50波动率分析 上证50历史波动率 力史波动率链 0.5 -最大值 露小值 -- 10%分位值 0.45 30%分位值 -- 60%分位值 · 当前值 0.4 90%分位值 0.35 0.3 80% 0.25 70% 0.2 eole 50% 0.15 40% 0.1 30% 0.05 20% 0 10% 2025-02-24 2025-03-24 2025-04-24 2025-05-24 2025-06-24 0% -HV5 - HV20 - 20日 40日 120日 - HAEO 日 eo目 上证50下月平值隐波 波动车微笑曲线 0.4 - 250 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity and will enter the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be released with the implementation of production plans in the southwest during the wet season, while the downstream demand is expected to strengthen. The price will show a wide - range oscillation. Strategies include focusing on SI2509 - SI2511 positive spread opportunities and the chance of going long on near - month industrial silicon and shorting far - month polysilicon [4]. - **Polysilicon**: In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental logic and "anti - involution" logic alternate. Fundamentally, lower production costs may lead to increased production capacity, while demand growth is limited, and inventory pressure remains high. If industry integration is effective, it may drive up prices. The recommended strategy is to focus on PS2508 - PS2511 positive spread opportunities [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8470 yuan/ton, up 4.05% from the previous period; the trading volume is 1,468,586 lots, up 27.32%; the open interest is 381,237 lots, down 4.46% [11]. - The SI09 - 11 spread is 70 yuan/ton, up 27.27% from the previous period; the SI11 - 12 spread is - 265 yuan/ton, up 14.52% [15]. - **Spot Data** - The prices of 553 silicon in different regions range from 8200 - 8750 yuan/ton, with some showing price increases. The price of 421 silicon in different regions ranges from 8950 - 9900 yuan/ton, mostly stable. The spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - The total warehouse receipts are 50,544 lots, down 248 lots from the previous period. The inventory in different delivery warehouses shows little change, except for Sichuan and Jiangsu which have slight increases [23][24]. Polysilicon - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 41,345 yuan/ton, up 5.28% from the previous period; the trading volume is 1,014,567 lots, up 27.70%; the open interest is 98,601 lots, up 1.45% [26]. - The PS08 - 09 spread is 300 yuan/ton, down 25.00% from the previous period; the PS08 - 11 spread is 800 yuan/ton, down 1.23%; the PS09 - 11 spread is 500 yuan/ton, up 21.95%; the PS11 - 12 spread is - 2325 yuan/ton, up 8.90% [28]. - **Spot Data** - The prices of different types of polysilicon show some changes, with N - type polysilicon price index rising 12.00% to 44.8 yuan/kg. The prices of silicon wafers and battery chips also have certain fluctuations [33][35]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data** - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 3455 yuan/ton, up 373.29% from the previous period. The warehouse receipts in different regions remain unchanged [40][42]. 4. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of inventory impairment, strategies include shorting futures on the main contract, selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, strategies include buying long - term futures contracts according to production plans, selling put options, and buying out - of - the - money call options [2].

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至7月10日收盘主力合约玻璃2509,涨跌+5.25%,成交量306.80万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为234895手。 文章来源:新浪期货 2025年7月10日玻璃主力合约2509持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 增减 | | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T | 中信期货 | 492,427 | 278,660 | 国泰君安 | 80,787 | 6,830 | | 国泰君安 144,691 -51,924 | | | 2 | 国泰君安 | 442,452 | 231,502 | 中信期货 | 54,623 | 5,583 | | 中信期货 108,917 -2,196 | | | 3 | 东证期货 | 311,558 | 164,450 | 东证期货 | 46,940 | 2,751 | 银河期货 | 96.653 | 1,688 | | 4 | 走闻期货 | 251,22 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: On July 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.0% to 776.82 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.2% to 889 yuan/kilogram. Trump extended the tariff suspension to August 1 and pressured for talks. The new tariff letter's tax rate did not increase significantly, and the US said it would meet with Chinese officials next month. This eased tariff concerns and reduced safe - haven demand, which was bearish for precious metals from a macro perspective. Also, the US economic data was okay, the economic downturn risk in the second half of the year weakened, and the Fed was unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term, which also suppressed precious metals. However, due to tariff policy uncertainties, China's central bank's continuous gold - buying for 8 months, and weakening US inflation expectations with a September rate - cut expectation, gold prices were unlikely to decline significantly. So, in the short term, precious metals were expected to continue to fluctuate [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still had a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying major - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, global central banks' gold - buying continued. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of gold remained unchanged. The strategy suggested continuous low - buying [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Tracking - **15 - point prices of domestic and foreign gold and silver**: On July 9, 2025, London gold spot was 3293.35 dollars/ounce, down 1.3% from July 8; London silver spot was 36.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. COMEX gold was 3301.80 dollars/ounce, down 1.3%; CONEX silver was 36.80 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. AU2508 was 764.70 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG2508 was 8879.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.5%. AU (T + D) was 763.00 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG (T + D) was 8864.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.6% [3]. - **Price differences/ratios**: On July 9, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 1.7 yuan/gram, up - 8.6% from July 8; the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 15 yuan/kilogram, up 36.4%. The gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was 5.50 yuan/gram, up 11.3%; the silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was - 574 yuan/kilogram, up - 1.9%. The SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 86.12, down - 0.7%; the COMEX main ratio was 89.72, down - 0.6%. AU2512 - 2508 was 3.82 yuan/gram, down - 6.4%; AG2512 - 2508 was 40 yuan/kilogram, down - 14.9% [3]. Position Data - **ETF and COMEX non - commercial positions**: As of July 8, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 946.51 tons, down - 0.12% from July 7; the silver ETF - SLV was 14935.15145 tons, up 0.45%. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 258631 contracts, up 1.00%; non - commercial short positions were 56651 contracts, down - 7.24%; non - commercial net long positions were 201980 contracts, up 3.58%. CONEX silver non - commercial long positions were 82747 contracts, down - 2.06%; non - commercial short positions were 19347 contracts, down - 10.20%; non - commercial net long positions were 63400 contracts, up 0.72% [3]. Inventory Data - **Domestic and foreign inventories**: On July 9, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 21585.00 kilograms, up 0.13% from July 8; SHFE silver inventory was 1320909.00 kilograms, down - 1.04%. On July 8, COMEX gold inventory was 36876794 ounces, up 0.43% from July 7; COMEX silver inventory was 497932946 ounces, down - 0.07% [3]. Related Market Indexes - **July 9, 2025 data**: The dollar index was 97.49, up 0.01% from July 8; the US 2 - year Treasury yield was 3.90%, unchanged; the 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.42%, up 0.06%. VIX was 16.81, down - 5.51%; the S&P 500 was 6225.52, up 0.45%; NYMEX crude oil was 68.18 dollars/barrel, down - 0.07%. The dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.15, up 0.38% [4].

南华期货锡风险管理日报 2025年7月10日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 262890 | 245000-263000 | 11.52% | 16.4% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） 重要新闻： 基本面保持稳定。 利多因素： 1. 中美关税政策缓和。 2. 半导体板块仍处于扩张周期。 3. 缅甸复产不及预期。 利空因素： 1. 关税政策反复。 2. 缅甸复产。 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 275000附近 | | | ...