Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's policy attitude. In the short - term, there is a lack of bullish drivers in the market, and under weak sentiment, there is a possibility that the TL contract will continue to decline. However, the medium - term fundamentals still provide support, and interest rates need to remain low, so medium - term long positions can still be held [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Conditions - On Friday, Treasury bond futures opened higher but trended lower in the morning and fluctuated in the afternoon, with most varieties closing down, and the TL contract having the largest decline. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 falling to around 1.32%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 375 billion yuan, with a net injection of 162.2 billion yuan [1]. - Affected by the US stock market, the A - share market opened and closed lower and declined significantly today, but the bond market did not benefit. The T, TF, and TS contracts generally remained in a volatile state, while the TL contract has shown obvious declines in recent days, indicating weak trading sentiment [3]. Important Information - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs in September, far exceeding expectations, but the employment figures for the previous two months were significantly revised down by 33,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, reaching a four - year high. - The positive performance of NVIDIA's earnings was short - lived. The US stock market tumbled during the session, with the S&P 500 falling more than 3% from its daily high, experiencing the largest intraday reversal since the tariff storm in April. NVIDIA rose more than 5% during the session but closed down more than 3% [2]. Data | Contract | 2025 - 11 - 21 Price | 2025 - 11 - 20 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 11 - 21 Position | 2025 - 11 - 20 Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.448 | 102.458 | - 0.01 | 73,816 | 77,399 | - 3,583 | | TF2512 | 105.855 | 105.915 | - 0.06 | 153,244 | 155,300 | - 2,056 | | T2512 | 108.44 | 108.475 | - 0.035 | 279,585 | 280,931 | - 1,346 | | TL2512 | 115.59 | 115.93 | - 0.34 | 176,275 | 181,999 | - 5,724 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0063 | - 0.012 | 0.0057 | | | | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0033 | 0.0154 | - 0.0121 | | | | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0802 | 0.0709 | 0.0093 | | | | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.1601 | 0.1356 | 0.0245 | | | | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume | 29,272 | 38,948 | - 9,676 | | | | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume | 64,448 | 71,725 | - 7,277 | | | | | T Main Contract Trading Volume | 103,001 | 81,803 | 21,198 | | | | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume | 97,822 | 94,348 | 3,474 | | | | [4]

ing gov 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/11/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/11/20 | 4067. 10 | 51. 15 | 4066. 20 | 50. 85 | 932. 56 | 12046.00 | 930. 20 | 12040.00 | | (本表数 | 2025/11/19 | 409 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-11-21 市场缩量运行 市场分析 海外方面，美国非农数据超预期增加，市场对联储12月降息的预期下降，美股三大指数全线收跌。国内市场缩量 运行，两市成交额回落至1.7万亿元，资金承接意愿有限，板块行情持续性较弱，关注指数在箱体下沿的支撑情况。 风险 若国内政策落地不及预期、海外货币政策超预期、地缘风险升级，股指有下行风险 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 非农数据超预期。宏观方面，在中华人民共和国主席习近平、坦桑尼亚联合共和国总统萨米娅·苏卢胡·哈桑、赞比 亚共和国总统哈凯恩德·希奇莱马三位国家元首的战略引领下，坦赞铁路市场化激活工程于2025年11月20日启动。 中华人民共和国、坦桑尼亚联合共和国、赞比亚共和国三国政府一致同意，携手推进公正合理、开放共赢、人民 至上、多元包容、生态友好、和平安全的现代化，推动建设坦赞铁路繁荣带，助力中、坦、赞三国发展，释放区 域发展潜力，打造中非高质量共建"一带一路"的典范。海外方面，美国9月非农就业人口增长11.9万人，是预期的 两倍多，但7月和8月非农就业人数合计下修3.3万人。9月失业率意外升至4.4% ...

1. Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4090.60 with a change of -36.35 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 50.85 with a change of -1.35 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1557.00 with a change of 23.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1408.00 with a change of -3.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 59.44 with no change [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 10759.00 with a change of 17.00 [1] - The latest US Dollar Index is 100.22 with a change of 0.09 [1] - The latest Euro to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.15 with no change [1] - The latest British Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.31 with no change [1] - The latest US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate is 157.46 with a change of 0.28 [1] - The latest yield of US 10 - year TIPS is 1.86 with no change [1] 2. Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory is 14367.02 with a change of -19.27 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory is 535.09 with a change of -12.60 [1] - Gold ETF holdings are 1039.43 with a change of -4.29 [1] - Silver ETF holdings are 15246.63 with a change of 19.75 [1] - SGE Silver inventory is 830.31 with no change [1] - The SGE Gold deferred - fee payment direction has no change of 0.00 [1] - The SGE Silver deferred - fee payment direction has a change of 1.00 [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - BCA Research warns that the AI bubble may burst within 6 to 12 months, advising investors to be neutral in the short - term and underweight stocks in the medium - term, and to focus on forward - looking indicators such as analyst expectations and GPU costs [2] - Morgan大通 believes the power equipment bull market is in the early to mid - stage. AI - driven power consumption growth is accelerating, and leading power equipment companies' order backlogs are 2.5 to 2.8 times their revenues, with profitability visibility locked until 2027 - 2028. Asian and Chinese companies with cost advantages and delivery capabilities may gain more market share and enjoy higher overseas profits [2][3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc futures was 22,420 yuan/ton, up 0.49%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic trading closed at $2,990.5/ton, up 0.03%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc futures was 91,247 lots, down 2,222 lots, and the LME zinc trading volume was 14,603 lots, up 3,454 lots. The open interest of SHFE zinc futures was 67,487 lots, down 14,839 lots, and the LME zinc open interest was 224,451 lots, down 3,059 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was $129.76/ton, up $29.76/ton. The import bill of lading premium was $135/ton, unchanged [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 75,314 tons, down 1,473 tons; LME zinc inventory was 45,075 tons, up 1,550 tons. The LME zinc cancelled warrants were 3,525 tons, up 100 tons; the LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 23,736 tons, up 921 tons [1] - **Related Products**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,150 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,645 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 23,095 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1] [News] - **AI Bubble Warning**: BCA Research analyzed four capital expenditure booms and summarized five collapse rules. The current AI boom shows warning signs, and the AI bubble may burst within 6 to 12 months [2] - **Power Equipment Market**: Morgan大通 believes the power equipment bull market is in the early to mid - stage. AI drives power consumption growth, leading to supply - demand imbalance. Asian and Chinese enterprises may benefit [2][3] [Trend Intensity] - The zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月18日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属价格延续调整回落，美联储官员内部分歧加剧，12降息概率预期已低于5成。"新美联储通讯 社"表示，不管降息与否，美联储12月会议都可能有至少3张反对票，其中明确支持降息的为特朗普任命的三 位理事，反对降息的为四位地方联储官员，而作为美联储副主席的杰斐逊，通常会支持主席鲍威尔的立场。 最终COMEX黄金2512合约收4045.1美元/盎司，-1.2%；美白银2512合约收报于50.05美元/盎 司，-1.25%。SHFE黄金2512主力合约收929.46元/克，-3.09%；SHFE白银2512合约收11933元/千 克，-4.08%。 南华贵金属日报：黄金&白银：12月降息预期分歧大 贵金属延续调整回 落 【降息预期与基金持仓】 12月降息预期摇摆不定。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储12月11日维持利率不变概率57.1%，降 息25个基点的概率为42.9%；美联储1月29日维持利率不变概率35.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为48.2%， 累计降息50个基点的概率1 ...

这场由证券时报社主办的年度金融盛会，将汇聚来自银行、证券、保险、信托、期货等领域的数百位行业领袖，通过 六大专业论坛，共同探寻金融业高质量发展新路径。 很轻巅 分 万博3C合议 作者 ad 证券出版 ( ) 2000 0 图画照APP 图画家号 今日头条 0 微视 sino MANE O MM 4 en 网易新闻 KE 11月19-20日 中国·深圳 会议议程 11月19日 周三 9号馆 活动A区 09:00-10:20 ● 第十九届深圳国际金融博览会 2025金融科技大会开幕式 10:30-11:30 ● 2025中国金融机构年会 9号馆 活动B区 金融精英汇聚鹏城，行业领袖共议金融强国建设！ 11月的深圳，风起南海，潮涌珠江。这座将举办2026年APEC会议的创新之都，即将迎来一场金融界的思想盛宴——第 十九届深圳国际金融博览会暨2025中国金融机构年会将于11月19日至21日在深圳会展中心(福田)隆重举行，这也是两大 品牌活动首次强强联合。 13:30-17:30 ● 2025中国金融机构年会 暨2025中国银行业年会 11月20日 周四 9号馆 活动B区 09:30-11:40 ● 2025中国金融机 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the need for financial institutions to enhance their services to support the high-quality development of the real economy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Financial Institutions' Role - Financial institutions are urged to improve the precision, adaptability, and accessibility of their services, focusing on key areas and weak links in the real economy [2] - Regional banks should adjust their credit and customer strategies towards intelligent, green, and integrated directions, accelerating digital transformation to create competitive advantages [2] - The futures and securities industries are presented with development opportunities, with the futures sector encouraged to implement scenario-based services to enhance price discovery and risk management [2] Group 2: Risk Management - Financial institutions must maintain a risk baseline while serving the real economy, employing early identification and warning systems for risk management [3] - City commercial banks should respect risks but not fear development, balancing risk and return through technology empowerment and compliance culture [3] - The futures industry should establish integrated risk warning mechanisms to preemptively address systemic risks [3] Group 3: Innovative Financial Products and Services - The "five major articles" of financial work emphasize technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance as core strategies for financial institutions [4] - Construction Bank has developed a comprehensive technology finance service system, including products that cater to different growth stages of enterprises [4] - Regional banks are launching tailored products to address local needs, such as order financing and pollution rights pledge loans, to support small and micro enterprises [4][5] Group 4: Industry Empowerment - Financial institutions are transitioning from traditional credit providers to industry enablers, particularly in the context of the Xiong'an New Area's development [4] - Supply chain financial products are being utilized to extend services to upstream and downstream SMEs, integrating various financial services [5] - Futures and securities firms are playing a crucial role in managing risks within the industrial chain, responding to the increasing demand for risk management from enterprises [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction lies in limited improvement in the spot market, with downstream replenishment falling short of expectations. Caustic soda production remains at a high level, leading to continuous supply pressure. In terms of valuation, the price of liquid chlorine is moderately strong, and the chlor - alkali profit stays at a medium - high level, weakening cost support, and alkali plants have no motivation for active production cuts [3]. - There is still an expectation for the alkali - stocking demand of downstream aluminum plants from November to December, which may support the spot market. However, the production of caustic soda remains high, resulting in significant supply pressure. The spot market improvement is limited, and the delivery volume of major aluminum plants remains high. Also, the caustic - chlorine profit is decent, so alkali plants have no incentive to cut production actively [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Content Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.50%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 5.9% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2400 - 2450) to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. They can also sell call options (SH601C2400, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 50) to collect premiums and lower costs. If the price rises, the selling price of the spot can be locked [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory for procurement and wishing to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2200 - 2250) to prevent cost increases due to price hikes and lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (SH601P2200, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 50) to collect premiums and lower procurement costs. If the price drops, the purchase price of the spot can be locked [2]. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 17, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2438, down 44 (-1.77%) from November 14; the 09 contract was 2525, down 61 (-2.36%); the 01 contract was 2291, down 36 (-1.55%) [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 17, 2025, the 32 - alkali ex - factory price of Shandong Jinling was 2344, down 62.5 (-2.6%) from November 14. The 50 - alkali ex - factory price of Jinling was 2360, down 20 (-0.8%) [5][7]. Price Differences - **Brand/Regional Price Differences**: On November 17, 2025, the difference between Shandong 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali was 16, up 42.5 from November 14. Other differences such as Jiangsu 49 - alkali minus 32 - alkali remained unchanged [8]. - **Monthly Price Differences**: On November 17, 2025, the monthly difference (5 - 9) was - 87, up 17 from November 14; the monthly difference (9 - 1) was 234, down 25; the monthly difference (1 - 5) was - 147, up 8 [5].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 谨 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 慎 险 ==== 18/19 - == ===== 19/20 ===== 23/24 ------20/21 - 25/26 RM1-5 1.500 65 2 1200 价差数据 豆粕-菜粕 433 7 900 现货价差(广东) 300 豆粕-菜粕 602 23 盘面价差(主力) 04/24 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 12/28 03/24 10/27 11/27 升贴水-连续月 产地 美元兑人民币汇率 涨跌 盘面榨利(元/吨) (美分/蒲) 巴西 7. 0596 2025年大豆CNF升贴水走势图-连续月 (美分/蒲式耳) 2025年进国大学盘面毛利(元/吨) -- ====== 巴西1月 ===== 巴南2月 ===== 巴南3月 ===== 巴南4月 ---- 巴西5月 ----- 巴西6月 ----- 巴勒月 ----- 巴勒月 ...