Core Viewpoint - On September 17, COFCO Capital experienced a significant increase in stock price by 10.02%, with a trading volume of 2.714 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest and activity [1]. Financing Summary - On the same day, COFCO Capital had a financing buy-in amount of 336 million yuan, with a financing repayment of 281 million yuan, resulting in a net financing purchase of approximately 54.43 million yuan [1]. - As of September 17, the total financing and securities lending balance for COFCO Capital was 892 million yuan, with the financing balance at 884 million yuan, representing 2.63% of the circulating market value, which is above the 90th percentile level over the past year [1]. - In terms of securities lending, COFCO Capital had no shares repaid on September 17, with 74,000 shares sold short, amounting to approximately 1.08 million yuan at the closing price, and a remaining short position of 545,900 shares valued at 7.97 million yuan, also above the 90th percentile level over the past year [1]. Company Overview - COFCO Capital Holdings Co., Ltd. is located in the Chaoyang District of Beijing and was established on December 29, 2004, with its listing date on June 3, 2010 [1]. - The company's main business activities include trust, futures, insurance, and banking, with revenue composition as follows: insurance segment 72.02%, trust segment 15.30%, futures segment 12.23%, and others 0.46% [1]. Shareholder and Financial Performance - As of August 29, COFCO Capital had 136,000 shareholders, an increase of 7.94% from the previous period, with an average of 16,941 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 7.35% [2]. - For the first half of 2025, COFCO Capital reported operating revenue of 4.893 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 62.60%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 848 million yuan, down 27.83% year-on-year [2]. - Since its A-share listing, COFCO Capital has distributed a total of 1.503 billion yuan in dividends, with 850 million yuan distributed over the past three years [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders included the Southern CSI 500 ETF, holding 13.6631 million shares, an increase of 1.6479 million shares from the previous period, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 13.4116 million shares, an increase of 613.64 thousand shares [2].

《实施方案》提出，打造现代金融体系。积极引进境内外各类金融机构、金融资本，丰富河南省金融业 态和金融产业链。支持郑州商品交易所丰富区域特色期货品种，发展"保险+期货"，延伸期货产业链。 9月17日，河南省人民政府办公厅印发《河南省金融服务"两高四着力"实施方案》（下称《实施方 案》）。《实施方案》提出，未来3至5年，实现金融要素配置与"两高四着力"有机融合，金融"五篇大 文章"提质增效，直接融资占比明显提升，更多长期资本、耐心资本集聚发展，金融机构竞争力和影响 力明显增强，金融风险大幅收敛，现代金融体系更加完善、金融服务实体经济更加高效、金融生态环境 更加优良的金融业发展新格局基本形成。 （文章来源：期货日报网） ...

盘面点评： 周三期债低开高走，全线收涨。现券收益率全线下行。公开市场逆回购4185亿，净投放1145亿。另外，今日 有1500亿国库金定存投放。资金面仍旧偏紧，DR001上行至1.49%。 日内消息： 1.财政部20年期国债加权中标利率2.1616％，全场倍数5.71，边际倍数2.16。 国债期货日报 2025/09/17 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行态度 2. 盛松成：我国降准优于降息 但降息仍有空间。 行情研判： 今日全A指数创新高，表现较强，但债市受影响不大。一级市场20年新债发行情况好于预期，中标利率低于 二级市场，带动午后期债上扬。消息方面，前央行官员盛松成表示在当前经济形势下，中国货币政策工具降 准优于降息，但降息仍有空间。目前市场对降息预期不高，关注美联储今晚的降息幅度，如果降息大于25ｂ ｐ，可能对国内债市有一定带动。目前市场情绪尚可，交易思路上多单可逢低介入，不追涨。但若明日继续 上涨，前期多单注意止盈。 国债期货日度数据 | | 2025-09-17 | 2025-09-16 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-09- ...

股指期货日报 2025年9月17日 王映(投资咨询证号：Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 关注预期及量能变化，即使乐观不建议急于追仓 市场回顾 今日股指继续小幅放量，规模指数整体偏强，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨0.61%。从资金面来看，两市成 交额回升353.36亿元。期指方面，IH放量上涨，其余期指缩量上涨。 重要资讯 核心观点 今日股市走势整体偏强，隔夜美指回落至97下方，关于FOMC议息决议预期交易仍在发力，受此影响，与昨 日类似，今日继续表现为小盘股偏强，行业层面，前期受支撑的电新以及汽车赛道继续领涨。量能延续震荡 之势，显示观望情绪为主，目前市场已经定价美联储九月降息25BP，若会议没有释放更加鸽派的信号，预计 靴子落地后，市场或出现修正后，震荡的行情，整体影响预计持续时间不长。若出现更加鸽派信号，预计也 将在较短时间内反映完成，关注量能是否会再度持续攀升，若交易活跃度没有再升一个台阶，并且维持住， 则不建议追涨。 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | 0. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The domestic soybean market is transitioning from a stage of expected supply loosening to a reality, exerting downward pressure on prices [3]. - Mid - and downstream players are waiting for the large - scale listing of new - season grains, with low acquisition enthusiasm and light current spot trading [3]. - The soybean No. 1 futures maintain a bearish trend under the suppression of supply loosening expectations [3]. - The future import rhythm will affect the demand for domestic soybeans due to the high uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations [3]. - Reducing or suspending the one - way auctions of Sinograin this week is beneficial for alleviating pressure on the spot market, and specific auction arrangements should be monitored [3]. - The consumer market is gradually recovering in September, with an expected rebound in edible demand [3]. - The new - season harvest and listing of domestic soybeans are causing significant pressure on prices, and the passive attitude of the procurement end may lead to price declines [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bean One Risk Strategy - For inventory management of planting subjects with high new - bean sales demand in autumn and large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 soybean No. 1 futures with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is between 4000 - 4050 to lock in planting profits [2]. - When there is a large - scale listing and weakening bargaining power of sellers, it is recommended to sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option with a 30% hedging ratio at 40 - 50 (holding) to increase the grain selling price [2]. - For procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices and aiming to reduce procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on forward procurement management, with a long position in A2603 and A2605, waiting for price guidance in autumn [2]. Bean One Futures Price - On September 16, 2025, compared with September 15, the closing prices of all listed soybean No. 1 futures contracts declined, with the decline ranging from 0.25% to 0.38% [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short - term, with the weakening US job market, falling consumer confidence index, and relatively controllable inflation pressure, the market trades on the Fed's rate - cut expectations and anticipates an accelerated pace of rate cuts. The market generally expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year. Geopolitical tensions and concerns about US economic stagflation support precious metal prices at high levels, with silver showing more resilience. Before the September rate cut, precious metal prices are likely to remain strong, but volatility may increase. Attention should be paid to the Fed's September meeting and Sino - US economic and trade talks this week [5] - In the long - term, due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the de - dollarization trend, along with continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Gold and Silver - On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, London gold spot price was at $3636.27/ounce (-0.4%), London silver spot price was at $42.12/ounce (0.2%), COMEX gold was at $3674.10/ounce (-0.4%), COMEX silver was at $42.61/ounce (0.0%), AU2510 was at 831.60 yuan/gram (-0.3%), AG2510 was at 10017.00 yuan/kilogram (-0.2%), AU (T + D) was at 828.56 yuan/gram (-0.3%), and AG (T + D) was at 9997.00 yuan/kilogram (-0.1%) [3] 2. Spread/Ratio of Gold and Silver - From September 12 to September 15, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price changed from -3.54 yuan/gram to -3.04 yuan/gram (-14.1%), the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price changed from -25 yuan/kilogram to -20 yuan/kilogram (-20.0%), the spread of gold's internal - external market (TD - London) changed from -2.80 yuan/gram to -2.15 yuan/gram (-23.3%), the spread of silver's internal - external market (TD - London) changed from -741 yuan/kilogram to -776 yuan/kilogram (4.8%), the SHFE gold - silver ratio changed from 83.13 to 83.02 (-0.1%), the COMEX gold - silver ratio changed from 86.58 to 86.23 (-0.4%), AU2512 - 2510 changed from 2.48 yuan/gram to 2.50 yuan/gram (0.8%), and AG2512 - 2510 changed from 26 yuan/kilogram to 28 yuan/kilogram (7.7%) [3] 3. Position Data - As of September 12, 2025, compared with September 11, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was at 974.8 tons (-0.32%), the silver ETF - SLV was at 15069.6026 tons (0.00%), the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 324875 contracts (2.87%), the non - commercial short position was 63135 contracts (-4.72%), the non - commercial net long position was 261740 contracts (4.89%), the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 72450 contracts (-2.71%), the non - commercial short position was 18513 contracts (-0.16%), and the non - commercial net long position was 53937 contracts (-3.55%) [3] 4. Inventory Data - On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 53226.00 kilograms (0.52%), SHFE silver inventory was 1243481.00 kilograms (-0.25%), COMEX gold inventory was 38914491 troy ounces (0.01% compared with September 12), and COMEX silver inventory was 527423230 troy ounces (0.55% compared with September 12) [3] 5. Interest Rate/Foreign Exchange/Equity Market - On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.56% (0.09%), the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06% (1.25%), the US dollar index was 97.62 (0.05%), the VIX was 14.76 (0.34%), the S&P 500 was 6584.29 (-0.05%), NYMEX crude oil was 62.60 (0.58%), and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.11 (1.14%) [4]

锡产业风险管理日报 2025/09/16 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） source： 南华研究 南华观点： 锡价在近期的走强主要得益于美联储降息预期，推升了整个有色金属板块的估值。短期来看，现在投资者对 于美联储9月的利率决议已经基本保持预期一致，对10月也有较为统一的预期，因此货币政策对于锡价的影响 或降低。基本面供给偏紧的短期格局在9月或难以改变，需求的弱势暂时还无法对价格产生太大的影响。锡价 或继续围绕27.4万元每吨震荡。 利多因素： 1. 中美关税政策缓和。 2. 半导体板块仍处于扩张周期。 | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 273960 | 245000-263000 | 13.17% | 23.0% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of asphalt is increasing, but the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and persistent funding shortages, resulting in the short - term peak season not exceeding expectations. The inventory structure has improved with factory and social inventories declining. The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns about US military action against Venezuela. In the short - term, southern rainfall will continue to be high, and the cost of crude oil is decreasing as OPEC increases production. In the medium - to - long - term, demand will pick up as construction conditions improve in autumn, and there may be only one last chance for asphalt futures to rise this year. The South China region remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions. After the short - term stabilization of crude oil, a long - position allocation can be attempted [3]. 3. Other Key Points 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.26% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 15.93% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and cover production costs; they can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory hoping to purchase based on orders, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs; they can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.3 Price and Basis Data - **Spot Prices**: On September 12, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3530 yuan/ton, 3640 yuan/ton, 3650 yuan/ton, and 3500 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were - 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China for the 12 - contract on September 12, 2025, had daily changes of 17 yuan/ton, 27 yuan/ton, 27 yuan/ton, and 27 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spread of Shandong spot to Brent crude oil was 142.4603 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of - 1.7328 yuan/barrel; the crack spread of the futures main contract to Brent was 114.3876 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of - 16.4623 yuan/barrel [8]. 3.4 Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Low pressure on asphalt factory warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low operating rates with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of capacity reduction [7]. - **Negative Factors**: An increase in the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in the short - term, the drag on demand from the southern rainy season, a slowdown in social inventory destocking and weakening basis, and the potential increase in operating rates due to consumption tax reform in Shandong [7][8].

纯苯-苯乙烯风险管理日报 2025/9/12 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯苯 | 5600-6200 | / | / | | 苯乙烯 | 6800-7400 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格下 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2510 | 卖出 | 25% | 7300-740 0 | | 理 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Coal and Coking Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analyst: Zhang Xuan [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies Price Forecast - Coking Coal: The monthly price range is predicted to be between 1060 - 1260, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 40.86% and a historical percentile of 80.58% [3] - Coke: The monthly price range is predicted to be between 1510 - 1750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.97% and a historical percentile of 61.85% [3] Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Hedging: For coke, when steel mills start a round of price cuts (2 - 3 rounds are generally expected), coke producers worried about future price drops can short the J2601 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry range of (1750, 1800) and 50% at (1800 - 1850) [3] - Procurement Management: For coking coal, due to factors like repeated macro - sentiment, low seasonal coking coal mine开工率, and production - over - limit inspections in the fourth quarter, coking plants worried about future price increases can long the JM2605 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry range of (1050, 1100) and 50% at (1000, 1050) [3] Group 3: Black Warehouse Receipt and Market Analysis Black Warehouse Receipt Data - On September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day, the inventory of rebar increased by 8525 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 33782 tons, iron ore remained unchanged, coking coal decreased by 800 hands, coke increased by 90 hands, ferrosilicon decreased by 585 sheets, and ferromanganese decreased by 118 sheets [4] Market Analysis - Coking Coal: After the end of production - restriction disturbances, mines resumed production, a round of price cuts was fully implemented, and coke producers were pessimistic about the future, reducing coking coal inventory. The supply - demand balance sheet of coking coal deteriorated marginally, and mines lowered spot prices. In the short term, the rebound space of coking coal is limited; in the long term, enterprises with raw - material procurement plans can consider long - position hedging in the far - month contracts [4] - Coke: Coke producers' immediate profits are good, and after the lifting of production restrictions, production is expected to quickly recover. The supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. Coke is restricted by price - cut expectations, and the market performance may be slightly weaker than coking coal [4] Group 4: Price and Spread Data Futures Price and Basis - Coking Coal: The basis of different varieties (e.g., Tangshan Mongolian No. 5, Port Mongolian No. 5) showed different changes on September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [7] - Coke: The basis of different varieties (e.g., Rizhao Port Wet - Quenched, Jinzhong Wet - Quenched) also showed different changes [7] Futures Spread - Coking Coal: The spreads between different contracts (e.g., 09 - 01, 05 - 09, 01 - 05) changed on September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [7] - Coke: The spreads between different contracts also changed [7] Other Ratios - The current盘面coking profit is - 87, the main mine - coke ratio is 0.488, the main screw - coke ratio is 1.897, and the main carbon - coal ratio is 1.429, all showing certain changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [7] Group 5: Spot Price and Profit Data Spot Price - Coking Coal: The spot prices of various coking coal varieties (e.g., Anze Low - Sulfur Main Coking Coal, Mongolian No. 5 Raw Coal at 288 Port) showed different changes on September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [8] - Coke: The spot prices of various coke varieties (e.g., Jinzhong Quasi - First - Grade Wet - Quenched Coke, Lvliang Quasi - First - Grade Dry - Quenched Coke) also showed different changes [10] Profit Data - Coking Profit: The immediate coking profit is 127 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase compared with the previous day but a decrease compared with the previous week [10] - Import Profit: The import profits of different coal - importing sources (e.g., Mongolian coal, Australian coal, Russian coal) showed different changes [10] - Export Profit: The coke export profit is 364 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease compared with the previous week [10] Group 6: Market Outlook and Influencing Factors Market Outlook - In the short term, downstream steel inventories continue to accumulate, the blast - furnace link still has profits, and the supply of hot metal is resilient. The contradiction in the steel market is difficult to resolve in the short term, limiting the rebound space of coking coal. Coke may be slightly weaker than coking coal [4] - In the long term, "anti - involution" is the focus in the second half of the year. Investors need to be vigilant about the impact of repeated macro - sentiment on the coal and coking market [4] Influencing Factors - Bullish Factors: The details of the "anti - involution" policy have not been announced, and there may be repeated macro - sentiment. Downstream coke producers have seasonal inventory - replenishment demand for coking coal before the National Day holiday [4][6] - Bearish Factors: The daily consumption of thermal coal has reached an inflection point, and the demand for thermal coal has weakened, dragging down the price of coking blending coal [6]