转自：上海证券报 新华财经上海12月30日电 岁末年初，多家外资机构相继发布新一年市场展望，表达了对中国市场的积 极预期。 在外资机构的观察中，2026年，充裕的流动性、更有力的政策支持和具有吸引力的估值等因素，正共同 构筑中国资产的"上行机遇期"。积极把握中国机遇，已成为国际投资者的广泛共识。 2026年全球经济呈回升趋势 "多元资产投资组合有望迎来稳健回报之年。"摩根大通认为，美国降息周期有望支撑全球经济增长复 苏，并推动各类资产市场表现强劲。不过，市场对涨势的担忧和观望情绪依然浓厚，许多投资者持有的 现金规模仍高于疫情前水平。 高盛认为，2026年股票市场有望继续实现稳健的正回报，进行多元化配置的理由充分。从区域来看，在 基准情景下，新兴市场有望继续表现良好。 渣打银行财富管理团队预期，新兴市场估值吸引力更为突出，尤其是在货币政策已趋于宽松的地区。宏 观环境改善及货币走势稳定，进一步提升了部分新兴市场的投资前景。 2025年即将收官。回顾这一年，"韧性"成为多家外资机构描绘全球经济时的关键词。 渣打银行财富管理团队认为，过去一年，全球经济展现出显著韧性，在面对数十年来最紧缩货币政策的 背景下，依然保持稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - There is a growing sense of "crisis" in South Korea as the Korean won continues to weaken against the US dollar, approaching the critical psychological level of 1500 won per dollar, a level not seen since the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis. This situation has led to concerns about a potential "third foreign exchange crisis" [1]. Group 1: Currency Fluctuations and Government Response - The Korean won started 2025 at just over 1400 won per dollar, fluctuating between 1350 and 1485 won throughout the year, indicating a high volatility range [2]. - In response to the ongoing pressure on the won, the South Korean government has intensified its regulatory measures, including verbal warnings against excessive weakness of the won and tax support plans to boost domestic investment [2][3]. - Despite these interventions, the won remains in a high volatility range, with recent fluctuations around 1435 won per dollar [2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Structural Issues - Historical experiences from the 1997 and 2008 crises have made South Korea acutely aware of foreign exchange issues, leading to a focus on maintaining foreign exchange reserves as a safety net during extreme situations [7]. - The current weakening of the won is attributed to multiple structural factors, including significant capital outflows and a growing trend of domestic investors purchasing overseas assets, which exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance for the won [8][9]. - South Korea's net foreign assets have exceeded 380 billion dollars, and while this provides a financial cushion, the ability to liquidate these assets quickly in a crisis is limited [9]. Group 3: Economic Confidence and Structural Reforms - Analysts suggest that the underlying cause of the won's depreciation is a loss of investor confidence in the South Korean economy, driven by structural issues such as low growth rates and a deteriorating business environment [10][11]. - The government is urged to focus on structural reforms rather than temporary measures to restore market confidence and stabilize the currency [10]. - Strengthening economic ties with China through increased cooperation could provide opportunities for South Korean companies, potentially alleviating some of the pressures on the won [11].

大型科技股多数下跌，特斯拉跌超3%，消息面上，"木头姐"Cathie Wood出售价值3000万美元的特斯拉股票。 英伟达跌超1%，微软、奈飞、亚马逊、Meta小幅下跌；英特尔涨超1%，苹果、谷歌小幅上涨。全球存储芯片巨头美光科技涨超3%， 股价创历史新高。 贵金属板块跌幅居前，哈莫尼黄金跌超8%，泛美白银、金罗斯黄金超跌5%。 美东时间周一，美股三大指数均小幅收跌，截至收盘，道指跌0.51%，纳指跌0.5%，标普500指数跌0.35%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.67%。蔚来涨近5%，爱奇艺、百度涨超1%；阿里巴巴跌超2%，名创优品跌近2%，哔哩哔哩跌超1%。 富时A50期指连续夜盘收跌0.16%，报15341点。 周一（12月29日）纽约尾盘（周二北京时间05:59），离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元报6.9971元，较上周五纽约尾盘涨74点，日内整体交 投于7.0152~6.9936元区间。 周一（12月29日）纽约尾盘，CME比特币期货BTC主力合约较上周五纽约尾盘跌0.30%，报87695美元，北京时间12:38曾涨至90990美 元。 CME以太币期货DCR主力合约涨0.36%，报2947.50美元， ...

Core Insights - The report by UBS reveals that by 2025, China will have 70 new billionaires, bringing the total to 470, making it the second-largest number of billionaires globally, following the United States. The total wealth of these billionaires in China is projected to reach $1.8 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 22.2% [4][5]. Group 1: Billionaire Growth - The Greater China region is identified as the largest growth engine for billionaires globally, with 98% of new billionaires being self-made entrepreneurs, consistent with the characteristics of China's first-generation entrepreneurs [5][11]. - Globally, the number of billionaires is expected to increase by 287 to 2,919, marking the second-highest growth since 2015, with total wealth rising by 13% to $15.8 trillion [5][9]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The technology sector is projected to see a significant increase in billionaire wealth, with a growth of 23.8% to $3 trillion, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence [9][10]. - The consumer and retail sector's billionaire wealth growth is slower at 5.3%, totaling $3.1 trillion, while the industrial manufacturing sector sees a 27.1% increase to $1.7 trillion [10]. Group 3: Self-Made Billionaires - Among the new billionaires globally, 68.3% are self-made, with a total wealth increase of $386.5 billion, primarily from sectors like marketing software and infrastructure [12]. - In China, 98% of billionaires are self-made, a higher percentage compared to other major countries, reflecting a vibrant entrepreneurial spirit [12][11]. Group 4: Inheritance Trends - In 2025, 91 new billionaires will inherit wealth totaling $2.978 billion, a 36% increase from 2024, marking the largest inheritance record since the report's inception [14][15]. - The report indicates that over the next 15 years, billionaires' children are expected to inherit at least $5.9 trillion, with significant amounts in the U.S. and Europe [15]. Group 5: Gender Wealth Dynamics - There are currently 374 female billionaires, with their wealth growth rate being double that of male billionaires, at 8.4% compared to 3.2% [18]. - The consumer and retail sectors are the primary sources of wealth for female billionaires, with a significant portion inherited [18]. Group 6: Investment Outlook - A growing number of billionaires are looking towards China for investment opportunities, with 34% believing it offers the best prospects in the next 12 months, a significant increase from 11% in 2024 [20]. - In terms of investment strategies, 42% plan to increase exposure to emerging market stocks, while 49% intend to boost allocations to private equity [21].

Economic Outlook - The actual GDP growth rate for China in 2026 is projected to be around 4.8%, maintaining a medium-high growth level[2] - Global GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.2% in 2025[4] - China's fixed asset investment growth is forecasted to turn positive at 2.5% in 2026, recovering from a negative growth of -3.0% in 2025[4] Trade and Export Impact - China's export growth is anticipated to decline significantly from approximately 5.0% in 2025 to around 1.0% in 2026 due to increased U.S. tariffs[15] - The average U.S. import tariff rate is projected to rise to 19.5% in 2026, impacting global trade dynamics[8] Policy Measures - The target fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is set to remain at 4.0%, with an increase in new special bond issuance expected to reach 5.0 trillion yuan[41] - A reduction in interest rates by 0.3 percentage points is anticipated in 2026, with a focus on maintaining liquidity in the market[52] Consumer and Investment Trends - Consumer retail sales growth is expected to accelerate to 5.0%-6.0% in 2026, up from 3.9% in 2025, driven by enhanced consumption policies[65] - Infrastructure investment growth is projected to increase to 5.0% in 2026, significantly higher than the previous year's performance[71] Inflation and Price Levels - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise to 0.4% in 2026, indicating a slight improvement in the low inflation environment[76] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is forecasted to decline by -1.8% in 2026, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the economy[76]

Group 1: New Quality Productive Forces - In 2025, China focuses on technological innovation and industrial upgrading to cultivate new quality productive forces, enhancing the foundation for high-quality development [2] - Traditional industries are crucial for accelerating the development of new quality productive forces, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology releasing action plans for ten key industries [2] - Strategic emerging industries and future industries are the main battlegrounds for cultivating new quality productive forces, with significant growth in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and quantum technology [2][3] Group 2: Expanding Domestic Demand - Expanding domestic demand is a strategic choice for China to respond to economic changes and promote high-quality development, with policies implemented to stimulate consumption and investment [4] - Consumer markets are recovering, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment, with year-on-year increases of 14.8%, 18.2%, and 20.9% respectively [6] - Investment in emerging sectors is also strong, with notable increases in manufacturing and renewable energy investments, such as a 15.3% growth in automotive manufacturing [6] Group 3: High-Level Opening Up - Expanding high-level opening up is essential for China's high-quality development, providing stability to the uncertain global economy [7] - China's foreign trade resilience is improving, with policies promoting service exports and green trade, reflecting a commitment to innovative leadership [7][8] - Trade with major partners like ASEAN has seen growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% in trade volume [8] Group 4: Risk Mitigation - In 2025, China continues to address key risk areas to ensure high-quality development, with measures in place to manage local government debt and mitigate financial risks [9] - The real estate sector has seen successful completion of housing delivery tasks, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and supporting housing supply [9] Group 5: Appropriate Monetary Easing - Since 2025, a moderately loose monetary policy has been in effect, with social financing scale increasing significantly, reaching 33.39 trillion yuan in the first eleven months [10] - The structure of credit has improved, supporting key sectors and strategic economic transformations, with notable growth in technology and green loans [11] Group 6: Green Transition - China has introduced numerous policies for green low-carbon transition and ecological civilization construction, achieving significant progress in various fields [14] - The energy structure is shifting towards non-fossil sources, with ambitious targets for renewable energy installations [14][15] - The green economy is thriving, with over 218.7 million existing green economy-related enterprises, indicating sustained vitality in the sector [14]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 转自：成都日报锦观 锦江法院 行动并未止步。法院持续深化"濯锦·企航"品牌内涵，构建起"一链两端N翼"的立体化护企体系。以《促进企业发展十一条举措》为核心政策主 线，精准切入劳动雇佣、金融创新等企业关切领域；通过联合发布《政法机关与工商联沟通联系工作意见》，创新"法院+工商联+工会"多元 协同解纷模式；出台《信用修复实施办法（试行）》及配套指南，全程激励企业守信履约；更推出"一园一方"策略，为不同产业园区提供定制 化法律服务。 由此，一条以专项行动为起点、以核心政策为主线，辐射多领域的"一点一线全周期"司法护企链条清晰形成，实现了司法供给与产业需求的精 准匹配。 以"立园满园"司法新范式 擦亮法治"锦"色 锦江法院"锦知·添翼"知识产权法律服务中心揭牌。 在"十四五"收官与"十五五"谋篇布局的历史交汇点，如何以高质量司法服务赋能区域经济高质量发展，是摆在基层法院面前的时代命题。五年 来，锦江法院以"扎根园区、服务企业"为实践主轴，积极探索司法助力"立园满园"的新路径、新机制，将法治保障深度融入产业肌理。从宏观 的战略引领到微观的诉求响应、从机制的协同创新到服务 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market outlook for early 2026, focusing on government bonds and credit bonds, with specific attention to the impact of monetary policy and market dynamics on these instruments [1][3][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment**: The expectation for monetary policy easing is limited, with concerns about increased government bond supply, particularly from Shandong province, which is set to issue nearly 100 billion in a single day [1][2]. - **Interest Rate Projections**: The forecast for the 10-year government bond yield is between 1.75% and 1.85%, while the 30-year yield is expected to be around 2.3% [1][3][9]. - **Social Financing Growth**: A slight increase in social financing growth is anticipated, projected to rise by 0.1%, but overall, significant upward movement is not expected [1][4]. - **Inflation Expectations**: The impact of rising prices of small and precious metals on the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to be limited due to their low weight in the PPI calculation. The CPI is projected to reach 1.5% year-on-year in February 2026, influenced by seasonal factors and technical issues [1][5]. - **Market Stability**: The central bank is expected to maintain market stability through liquidity easing and purchasing operations, with large banks and insurance companies actively participating in the market [1][7][8]. Investment Strategy - **Focus on Space Selection**: The current investment strategy should prioritize space selection over timing, given the stability of interest rate ceilings [1][8]. - **Credit Bond Recommendations**: The most secure investments are expected to be in three-year perpetual bonds, followed by AA- to AA+ rated city investment bonds, and then five-year perpetual bonds and two-year general credit bonds [1][10]. - **Convertible Bonds**: There is a notable demand for convertible bonds at the beginning of the year, although the current low holding levels of insurance and pension funds may affect this trend [1][11]. Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, but significant declines are not anticipated. The market consensus suggests that the peak for the 10-year government bond yield will be around 2.0% [1][9]. - **Sector Performance**: In the convertible bond market, sectors such as AI and robotics are performing well, while previous strong sectors like non-ferrous metals are adjusting [1][14]. - **New Issuances**: There has been an increase in the issuance of new bonds, particularly in the technology sector, with promising opportunities expected in January 2026 [1][15]. Conclusion - The bond market outlook for early 2026 suggests a stable yet cautious environment, with specific strategies recommended for navigating the anticipated fluctuations and opportunities in various sectors. The focus remains on maintaining a balanced approach to investment, considering both the macroeconomic indicators and sector-specific trends.

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,635.23 points, down 0.71% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,483.01 points, down 0.3% [1] - Gold stocks experienced a decline, with WanGuo Gold Group falling over 6%, and both ChiFeng Gold and Shandong Gold dropping over 5% [1] Group 2 - Robotics concept stocks saw an increase, with UBTECH rising over 9% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The official launch of Hainan's full island closure operation on December 18, 2025, symbolizes a significant step in China's reform and opening-up strategy, aligning with historical milestones in the country's economic transformation [1][12]. Group 1: Understanding "Closure" as Higher-Level Openness - "Closure" is a customs regulatory term, not a literal island lockdown, allowing for smooth international trade while maintaining some controls on domestic markets [4][5]. - The policy framework includes "one line open, two lines controlled, and free movement within the island," facilitating easier international connections and zero tariffs on most imports [4][6]. - Hainan aims to create a "borderless" open environment, enhancing institutional openness rather than imposing physical restrictions on people [5][12]. Group 2: Economic Opportunities and Trade Benefits - The first week of the closure operation saw a 54.9% year-on-year increase in duty-free shopping, amounting to 1.1 billion yuan [8]. - The closure operation allows businesses to defer taxes on goods until they are sold in the mainland, significantly reducing operational risks and capital requirements [8][9]. - Hainan's service trade has been growing at an annual rate of 21% from 2018 to 2024, indicating a strong potential for further development in sectors like finance and professional services [9]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning and Future Challenges - Hainan is positioned as a pilot zone for national strategies, with the first negative list for service trade implemented there, enhancing its role in the RCEP market [6][12]. - The region faces challenges in market equality and capital market issues, which need to be addressed to fully realize its potential as a reform and opening-up experiment [13][14]. - Hainan's strategic location within the RCEP provides opportunities for enhanced trade and investment, particularly in the context of rising regional economic cooperation [14].