1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar market: With Brazil reaching its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to start accumulating. Brazil's recent bi - weekly sugar production was over 3.6 million tons, and the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio reached a record high of 54.1%. Although the Brazilian sugar price is at a relatively low level with limited downward space, the external sugar price is expected to move sideways. Attention should be paid to Brazil's sugar production progress [11]. - Domestic sugar market: The production and sales of domestic sugar are progressing rapidly, and the sugar inventory is low. However, a large amount of imported sugar is entering the domestic market. Since the domestic sugar price is greatly affected by the international sugar price, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the trend of external sugar [11]. - Trading strategies: In the short term, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the external sugar trend for single - side trading; for arbitrage and option trading, it is recommended to wait and see [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures market**: SR09 closed at 5,729 with a rise of 2 (0.03%), trading volume of 6,910 (a decrease of 115), and an open interest of 22,426 (a decrease of 3,502); SR01 closed at 5,688 with a rise of 12 (0.21%), trading volume of 154,901 (an increase of 1,519), and an open interest of 358,685 (an increase of 14,946); SR05 closed at 5,646 with a rise of 13 (0.23%), trading volume of 5,618 (an increase of 146), and an open interest of 27,768 (an increase of 1,151) [5]. - **Spot market**: The spot prices in different regions remained unchanged today, with the price in Liuzhou at 6,030 yuan/ton, Kunming at 5,905 yuan/ton, Wuhan at 6,230 yuan/ton, Nanning at 5,970 yuan/ton, Bayuquan at 6,175 yuan/ton, Rizhao at 6,050 yuan/ton, and Xi'an at 6,370 yuan/ton. The corresponding basis was 301, 176, 501, 241, 446, 321, and 641 respectively [5]. - **Monthly spreads**: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 42 with a rise of 1; the SR09 - SR5 spread was 83 with a decrease of 11; the SR09 - SR01 spread was 41 with a decrease of 10 [5]. - **Import profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 16.58, a premium of (0.10), and a freight of 39.00, the in - quota price was 4,510 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota price was 5,745 yuan/ton, the spread with Liuzhou was 285 yuan/ton, the spread with Rizhao was 305 yuan/ton, and the spread with the futures market was - 16 yuan/ton. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 16.58, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4,627 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota price was 5,768 yuan/ton, the spread with Liuzhou was 262 yuan/ton, the spread with Rizhao was 282 yuan/ton, and the spread with the futures market was - 39 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Judgment - **Important news**: - According to SCA Brasil, about 60% of the sugar - crushing season in the central - southern region has been completed. The expected sugar - cane crushing volume for this season is 590.4 million tons, a decrease of about 5% compared to the 621.9 million tons in the 2024 - 2025 season. The decline in agricultural sugar - extraction rate and significant loss of raw - material quality are the main reasons. The expected sugar - cane yield per unit area is 74.7 tons, a decrease of 4.8% compared to the previous season, and the sugar - cane sugar content (ATR) will drop by 5% to 136.1 kg per ton, the worst performance in recent seasons [7]. - From January to July 2025, China imported 164,200 tons of syrup under item 17029011, with 68,500 tons from Malaysia, 39,900 tons from Thailand, and 26,000 tons from Vietnam. Under item 21069061, 93,900 tons of syrup were imported, of which 91,100 tons were from Thailand. Under item 17029012, 88,600 tons of premixed powder were imported, with 74,500 tons from Vietnam, 9,400 tons from Thailand, and 1,300 tons from Malaysia. Under item 21069062, 265,100 tons of premixed powder were imported, of which 261,400 tons were from Thailand [8][10]. - On the 21st, in Guangxi, the intermediate - trader platform quotation in Nanning was 6,010 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan), and the warehouse quotation was 5,970 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Liuzhou, the intermediate - trader platform quotation was 6,030 yuan/ton, and the warehouse quotation was 5,980 - 6,000 yuan/ton (unchanged). In Guangdong, the intermediate - trader quotation for Zhanjiang sugar in Guangzhou was 6,080 yuan/ton (unchanged) [10]. - **Logical analysis**: As mentioned above, the international sugar market is affected by Brazil's supply, and the domestic sugar market is influenced by both domestic inventory and international prices [11]. - **Trading strategies**: As mentioned above, including single - side trading, arbitrage, and option trading strategies [12][13][14]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, showing data such as monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan, new industrial inventories, cumulative sales - to - production ratios of domestic sugar, spot prices in Liuzhou, spot price spreads between Liuzhou and Kunming, and various basis and spreads of sugar futures [15][21][25][26][29][31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar inventory is expected to enter a stocking phase due to the supply peak in Brazil, leading to a recent decline in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is influenced by international prices, and Zhengzhou sugar futures prices are expected to follow the trend of foreign sugar [11]. - In the short - term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to be volatile, and short - term traders can consider shorting at high prices. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,727 with a gain of 11 (0.19%), SR01 at 5,676 with a gain of 15 (0.26%), and SR05 at 5,633 with a gain of 14 (0.25%). The trading volume of SR09 decreased by 11,626 to 7,025, SR01 decreased by 17,130 to 153,382, and SR05 increased by 22 to 5,472. The open interest of SR09 decreased by 3,907 to 25,928, SR01 increased by 5,283 to 343,739, and SR05 increased by 171 to 26,617 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed some fluctuations. In places like Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, etc., prices changed, with Liuzhou at 6030 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Kunming at 5905 yuan/ton (unchanged), etc. The basis for different regions ranged from 178 to 643 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: SR5 - SR01 spread was - 43 (down 1), SR09 - SR5 spread was 94 (down 3), and SR09 - SR01 spread was 51 (down 4) [5]. - **Import Profits**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - in price was 4435 yuan/ton, the quota - out price was 5648 yuan/ton, with a spread of 382 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou prices and 402 yuan/ton compared to Rizhao prices. For Thai imports, the quota - in price was 4453 yuan/ton, the quota - out price was 5671 yuan/ton, with spreads of 359 yuan/ton and 379 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Important Information**: From January to July 2025, China imported 179 million tons of sugar, including 168,400 tons of white sugar and 1.6125 billion tons of raw sugar. In July, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons. From January to July 2025, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 622,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 557,600 tons [7][8][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, due to the supply peak in Brazil, the global sugar inventory is expected to increase, and raw sugar prices have declined. Domestically, the production and sales of domestic sugar are fast, and the inventory is low, but a large amount of imported sugar is entering the market, and domestic sugar prices are expected to follow the international trend [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, for unilateral trading, consider shorting at high prices; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [12][13][14].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The report presents the latest fundamental data, macro and industry news of the sugar market, and provides production, consumption and import forecasts for the domestic and international sugar markets in the 24/25 and 25/26 sugar - crushing seasons. The trend strength of sugar is rated as neutral. 3) Summary by Directory **Fundamental Tracking** - The price of raw sugar is 16.3 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.06; the mainstream spot price is 5990 yuan per ton, with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5661 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 11 [1]. - The 91 spread is 55 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 9; the 15 spread is 42 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 4; the mainstream spot basis is 329 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 11 [1]. **Macro and Industry News** - Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and the monsoon precipitation in India has weakened stage - by - stage. The sugar - crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil accelerated in the first half of July. Brazil exported 336 million tons of sugar in June, a year - on - year increase of 5%. China imported 74 million tons of sugar in July, an increase of 32 million tons compared with the previous period [1]. **Domestic Market** - CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season to be 1.116 billion tons, consumption to be 1.58 billion tons, and imports to be 500 million tons. For the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, production is expected to be 1.12 billion tons, consumption 1.59 billion tons, and imports 500 million tons [2]. - As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the national sugar production was 1.116 billion tons, an increase of 120 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 811 million tons, an increase of 152 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.7% [2]. - As of the end of July in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 324 million tons, a decrease of 34 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the market expects a decline in the sugar - extraction rate and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2]. **International Market** - ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season (previously 488 million tons) [3]. - As of July 16 in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 9.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 1.566 billion tons, a decrease of 159 million tons, and the cumulative MIX51.02% increased by 2.69 percentage points year - on - year [3]. - ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar production in India to be 3.49 billion tons in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, compared with 2.95 billion tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, an increase of 540 million tons [3]. - OCSB data shows that the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 1.008 billion tons, an increase of 127 million tons [3]. **Trend Strength** The trend strength of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of COFCO Sugar Holdings Co., Ltd. experienced abnormal trading fluctuations, with a cumulative closing price increase exceeding 20% over three consecutive trading days in August 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Trading Abnormalities - The company's stock price increased significantly on August 15, 18, and 19, 2025, leading to a classification of abnormal trading behavior as per the Shanghai Stock Exchange regulations [2][3]. - The company confirmed that there are no undisclosed significant information affecting the stock's trading fluctuations, based on self-inspection and consultation with its controlling shareholder, COFCO Group [4][5]. Group 2: Operational and Financial Status - The company reported that its production and operational activities are normal, with no significant changes in its main business despite a more complex external operating environment [4]. - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, estimating a range of 42.384 million to 49.076 million yuan, which represents a decrease of 37.174 million to 43.866 million yuan compared to the same period last year, equating to a year-on-year decline of 43.10% to 50.86% [2][8]. Group 3: Management and Disclosure - The company and its controlling shareholder have confirmed that there are no undisclosed major matters related to the company [5]. - During the period of stock price fluctuations, there were no transactions involving the company's stock by its controlling shareholders, directors, supervisors, or senior management [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - International market: With Brazil reaching its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to start accumulating. Recent reports show high sugar production and a record - high sugar - making ratio in Brazil, leading to a likely higher - than - expected sugar output and a decline in raw sugar prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's sugar production progress [11]. - Domestic market: The sales of domestic sugar are fast, and inventories are low. However, a large amount of imported sugar is entering the domestic market. Domestic sugar prices are affected by international prices, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to follow the trend of foreign sugar [11]. - Trading strategies: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to be volatile. In the short - term, consider short - selling at high prices. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. Sell out - of - the - money call options [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures market**: SR09 closed at 5,716 with a decline of 20 (-0.35%), SR01 at 5,661 (-11, -0.19%), and SR05 at 5,619 (-7, -0.12%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed [5]. - **Spot market**: Today's sugar prices in different regions are as follows: 6040 in Liuzhou, 5905 in Kunming, 6220 in Wuhan, 5980 in Nanning, 6175 in Bayuquan, 6050 in Rizhao, and 6370 in Xi'an. The price in Wuhan decreased by 10, while others remained unchanged. The basis and monthly spreads are also provided [5]. - **Import profit**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - free price is 4435, and the out - of - quota price is 5648. For Thai imports, the quota - free price is 4453, and the out - of - quota price is 5671 [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Important information**: - Brazil exported 188.32 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of August 2025, with a daily average of 17.12 million tons. In August 2024, the export volume was 392.08 million tons, with a daily average of 17.82 million tons [7]. - In July 2025, the sugarcane yield per hectare in central - southern Brazil decreased by 5.6% year - on - year, and the recoverable sugar decreased by 4.8% [7]. - In July 2025, China's beverage output was 1796.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output was 11101.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [7]. - In July 2025, China's refined sugar output was 41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 64.7%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output was 982.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [8][10]. - In Yunnan, the average number of effective sugarcane stems per mu this year is 4200, an increase of 80 compared to last year. As of July, the average height of sugarcane is 127.2 cm, an increase of 3 cm compared to last year [10]. - **Logical analysis**: International sugar prices are affected by Brazil's high - peak supply. Domestic sugar prices are influenced by international prices due to the entry of imported sugar [11]. - **Trading strategies**: - **Single - side trading**: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to be volatile. Consider short - selling at high prices [12]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13]. - **Options trading**: Sell out - of - the - money call options [14]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments The report includes multiple charts, such as those showing monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan, new industrial inventories, cumulative sales rates of domestic sugar, basis, and price spreads [15][20][24][26][28][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The SR2601 contract for sugar is expected to be prone to short - term decline but with limited downside space, finding support at the 5500 price level. Globally, the sugar supply - demand remains in a competitive situation. In the 2025/26 season, major producing countries are expected to increase production. In Brazil, the 2025/26 crushing season is in its peak, and with an abundant harvest expected, the market is mainly in a stable operation, though ethanol mixing has raised the price floor, providing short - term support for raw sugar. In China, the production and sales scale is relatively fast, but the third - party inventory situation is complex. With the increase in the arrival of raw sugar in recent months, the supply side remains loose. Terminal consumption has improved to some extent with the Mid - Autumn Festival stockpiling [3]. - It is recommended to conduct interval trading with a high - selling strategy for the SR2601 contract. Attention should be paid to the support level of 5500 yuan per ton, and near this cost, it is advisable to sell the SR2601P5400 put option [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price and Market Conditions - **Futures and Spot Prices**: This week, the ICE raw sugar futures price first rose and then fell, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. The Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated upwards, and the spot price of white sugar first stabilized and then rose. The basis between futures and spot slightly recovered, but the basis value slightly declined. As of August 15, the basis of Zhengzhou sugar 09 was 240 yuan/ton, and that of Zhengzhou sugar 01 was 316 yuan/ton [8][13][14]. - **Price Spread**: The price spreads among different futures contracts, such as the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads, showed certain changes this week. The price spreads between different regions' spot white sugar also had corresponding fluctuations. The spread between starch sugar and white sugar was also presented in the report [8]. 3.2 International Supply - **Brazil**: The 2024/26 sugar - crushing season in Brazil has a fixed output of 40.17 million tons, a decrease of 2.25 million tons compared to the previous period, but still within a historically high - output range. As of the first half of July in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22%. The production in July showed an increase, and based on the weather in the second half of July and the first half of August, the short - term production is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The 2025/26 season is expected to see an increase in production, with an estimated output of about 41 million tons. As of August 8, the ethanol - to - gasoline ratio in Brazil's São Paulo region was 65.57%, and the ethanol - converted sugar price was about 14.51 cents per pound. As of August 13, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 3.3179 million tons, a decrease of 259,800 tons from the previous week [33][34][61]. - **India and Thailand**: India's sugar production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be around 26.1 - 26.2 million tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery in production, reaching about 34.9 million tons. Thailand's 2024/25 season production reached 10.0418 million tons, and the 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production [81][86]. - **Global**: The global sugar supply in the 2024/25 season has a marginally tightened loose pattern compared to the previous period. The 2025/26 season is expected to turn to a loose pattern. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 2025/26 season, with some predicting a supply surplus [96]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - **Production**: The 2024/25 sugar - crushing season in China has ended, with a total output of 11.1621 million tons. Guangxi's output was 6.46 million tons, and Yunnan's was 2.4188 million tons. Other regions also increased production due to the expansion of planting areas [105]. - **Import**: The quota - free import tariff is 50%. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, and the arrival of sugar continued to increase. It is expected that the import volume will continue to increase significantly in the third quarter. The import of syrup and premixed powder is also under control, with the import of items under tariff code 170290 remaining at a low level, while the import of items under 2106.90.6 increased significantly [116][117][138]. 3.4 Sales and Inventory - **Sales**: As of the end of June 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in China reached 8.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5961 million tons, with a sales rate of 79.73%, 5.42 percentage points faster than the previous year. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi reached 3.4961 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 396,600 tons, with a sales rate of 85.01%, 2.51 percentage points higher than the previous year [150]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of June 2025, the industrial inventory in China was 2.1623 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 417,500 tons. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 968,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 113,000 tons, and in Yunnan, it was 467,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,600 tons [154][161]. 4. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - Sugar mills with inventory worried about price drops can hedge their unsold sugar inventory proportionally by short - selling the SR601 contract at an entry price of 5800 yuan/ton and also sell the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Traders looking to build inventory and buy sugar at low prices can, according to their future procurement plans, proportionally conduct futures or option hedging on the market. They can buy the SR601C5800 call option and the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Traders with inventory aiming to sell at high prices can hedge their unsold sugar inventory proportionally by short - selling the SR601 contract at an entry price of 5800 yuan/ton and sell the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Sugar - using enterprises in need of raw materials worried about price increases can, according to their future procurement plans, proportionally conduct futures or option hedging on the market. They can buy the SR601C5800 call option and the SR601P5400 put option [5]. - Sugar - using enterprises with high raw material inventory worried about price drops can hedge their unsold sugar inventory proportionally by short - selling the SR601 contract at an entry price of 5800 yuan/ton and sell the SR601P5400 put option [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Due to Brazil entering the supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter the accumulation phase, leading to a recent decline in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is affected by the international sugar price, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the trend of foreign sugar [3]. - In the short - term, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be volatile due to the influence of domestic and foreign markets. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the short - term. For arbitrage and options, it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The short - term Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be volatile. Consider short - selling on rallies in the short - term [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [4]. - **Options**: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes** - The 24/25 northern hemisphere sugar production increase was less than expected, and the 25/26 northern hemisphere is expected to have a restorative increase. Attention should be paid to the Brazilian sugar - pressing situation [6]. - **Brazilian Sugar Production Situation** - **Sugar Production in Central - Southern Brazil**: The sugar production in central - southern Brazil has increased, and the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio has reached a recent high. Although the sugarcane yield per unit is affected by weather and the sugar content is lower than the same period, the sugar - making ratio is high [8][9]. - **Cumulative Sugar - Making Ratio in Central - Southern Brazil**: The cumulative sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil has reached a new high, and the cumulative sugar production has also increased [11][12]. - **Brazilian Sugar Exports and Inventory**: Brazilian sugar exports have increased, and the inventory remains at a low level compared to the same period [14]. - **Sugar Production in Other Countries** - **Thailand**: The 24/25 sugar production was 10.05 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons), and the exports from January to June 2025 were 3.36 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 0.82 million tons). The 25/26 sugar production is expected to have a slight increase [15]. - **India**: The 24/25 sugar production was about 26.1 million tons. As of July 15, 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 26.103 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. The 25/26 sugar production is expected to have a restorative increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of the ethanol volume on the sugar supply - demand [19][21]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Situation** - **Sugar Production**: The 24/25 sugar sales - to - production ratio was higher than the same period, and the inventory remained at a low level. The 25/26 domestic sugar production is in an increasing cycle, and it is expected to have a restorative increase to about 11 million tons (subject to weather changes) [23]. - **Import Situation**: The import profit has increased, leading to a strong import expectation. The import volume is expected to increase. In June 2025, China imported 424,600 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons. From January to June 2025, the import volume was 1.0508 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 251,200 tons, a decline of 19.29%. As of June in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the import volume was 2.5126 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 649,300 tons, a decline of 20.54%. In July, 469,100 tons of out - of - quota raw sugar actually arrived at the port, and 206,300 tons were forecast to arrive in August [26][34][37]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking No detailed summary content provided in the given text, only some data charts are presented, including data on Brazilian sugar production, exports, and domestic sugar production and imports.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the Zhengzhou sugar price rose, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The previously opened window for out - of - quota import profit is expected to increase imports, suppressing the rebound of the 09 contract. The main funds flowed into the 01 contract, and the 9 - 1 spread continued to shrink due to the domestic production cut expectation. In the overseas market, due to the ongoing production cut in Brazil, the global supply is tight in the short term, providing strong support for the external market price, but the expected increase in production in India and Thailand prevents the raw sugar price from rising unilaterally. In the short term, the SR2509 contract is weak, the SR2601 contract is strong, and there is a possibility that the 9 - 1 spread will continue to narrow [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Domestic Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 6010 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, it was 5780 - 5940 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase [3]. - **International Market**: In the first week of August, Brazil exported 1.094 million tons of sugar, with an average daily export of 182,300 tons, a 2% increase compared to August of the previous year. India plans to allow sugar exports in the new crushing season starting in October as the sugarcane crop is expected to have a good harvest. Unica data showed that in late July, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 50.217 million tons of sugarcane, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease, and produced 3.614 million tons of sugar, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease, with a sugar - making ratio of 54.1% (50.32% in the same period last year). As of August 1, India's sugarcane planting area reached 5.731 million hectares, slightly higher than 5.568 million hectares in the same period last year [4][9]. Sugar Futures and Spot Price and Spread - **Futures Price and Spread**: On August 18, 2025, the closing prices of SR01, SR03, SR05, SR07, SR09, and SR11 were 5664, 5640, 5622, 5616, 5740, and 5667 respectively, all with a 0% change. The spreads such as SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, etc. are also provided [6]. - **Spot Price and Spread**: On August 15, 2025, the spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, etc. and their price differences are presented. For example, the price in Nanning was 5960 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase [6]. Sugar Weekly Basis and Import Price Change - **Basis**: The basis between Nanning, Kunming and different SR contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) and their changes are given. For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 316, a 61 - yuan decrease [7][10]. - **Import Price Change**: The quota - within and out - of - quota import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and their weekly changes are shown. For example, the quota - within import price of Brazilian sugar was 4561 yuan/ton, a 195 - yuan increase [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The international raw sugar price is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level in the short term due to good production prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries and concerns about the sugar content of sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, with signs of improved demand. In the domestic market, the profit from out - of - quota imports remains relatively high, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start crushing in September, increasing supply. Demand is expected to rise due to the hot summer and upcoming double - festival stocking. The inventory reduction process has slowed down, and the new - season production is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the domestic market will fluctuate in the short term, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5,672 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the main contract position was 322,832 lots, up 7,392 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 16,931, down 173; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 26,523 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0; the estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,561 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,579 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,796 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,819 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Nanning it was 5,980 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou it was 6,040 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, up 320,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 3.5937 million tons, up 0.2347 million tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,322 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,304 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 87 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 64 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production was 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production was 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.4%, down 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 8.37%, down 0.19 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.96%, up 0.21 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 6.31%, up 0.05 percentage points [2]. Industry News - China's sugar imports in July were 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons (76.2%) from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 76.4%. From January to July, China's sugar imports were 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.66% last Friday, and the domestic sugar 2601 contract closed up 0.42% on Monday. The sugar production in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil in the second half of July decreased by 0.8% year - on - year to 3.614 million tons [2].

Group 1 - The stock of COFCO Sugar has hit the daily limit up for three consecutive trading days, with a reported price of 15.27 yuan and a trading volume of 46.32 million shares, amounting to a transaction value of 6.91 billion yuan as of 9:35 AM [2] - During the consecutive limit-up period, the stock has increased by 33.13%, with a cumulative turnover rate of 15.41% [2] - The latest total market capitalization of the stock in the A-share market is 32.66 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - As of August 15, the margin trading balance for COFCO Sugar is 1.599 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 1.590 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 186 million yuan or 13.23% from the previous trading day [2] - Over the past three days, the margin trading balance has increased by 183 million yuan, representing a growth of 13.01% [2] - The stock has appeared on the Dragon and Tiger list due to a cumulative deviation of 20% in its price over three trading days, with a net purchase of 24.42 million yuan from the Shanghai Stock Connect [2] Group 3 - The company's Q1 report indicates a total revenue of 5.037 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.52%, and a net profit of 177 million yuan, down 59.81% year-on-year [2] - The stock's daily performance shows significant fluctuations, with a daily increase of 9.98% on August 15 and a net inflow of 155.97 million yuan in main capital [2]