瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.11.28」 「 周度要点小结」 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场窄幅波动。截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂至1600-1640元/吨， 均价环比上涨5元/吨。短时工厂将挺价为主，行情暂时僵持观望，不排除成交重心继续小幅上移。 行情展望：部分装置检修使得国内尿素产量小幅下降，下周预计4家企业装置计划停车、4家停车 企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到企业的短时故障，产量预计小幅波动。近日东北储备需求采购较 为集中，但随着前期适当的补充，采购量或有所放缓。复合肥开工环比提升，企业陆续排产冬储 肥，预计短期复合肥产能利用率稳中有升。随着新一批配额的落地，出口需求逐渐增量。近期因 储备需求的继续推进，复合肥等下游终端补仓影响，以东北、华北为主要区域企业出货加快，尿 素企业库存继续下降，考虑到储备需求推进以及部分出口发运预期，短期尿素库存仍有小幅去库 趋势。 策略建议： UR2601合约短线预计在1650-1700区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 目录 1、 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Yara International's stock closed at 44.15 yuan on November 28, with a 1.01% increase, and a rolling PE ratio of 22.73 times, resulting in a total market capitalization of 40.797 billion yuan [1] - The average industry PE ratio for the fertilizer sector is 27.87 times, with a median of 23.65 times, placing Yara International at the 15th position within the industry [1] - As of September 30, 2025, Yara International had 22,729 shareholders, a decrease of 3,806 from the previous count, with an average holding value of 352,800 yuan and an average shareholding of 27,600 shares per shareholder [1] Group 2 - Yara International's main business involves potassium salt mining, potassium fertilizer production, and sales, with its primary product being potassium chloride [1] - The latest quarterly report for 2025 shows that the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.867 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.76%, and a net profit of 1.363 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 163.01%, with a gross profit margin of 58.91% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In December, on the supply side, previously shut - down coal - based plants will resume operations, and new production capacities will be released, but gas - based plants will start to shut down for maintenance. Domestic supply will remain stable at a high level, with daily production expected to stay above 200,000 tons. On the demand side, agricultural demand will be generally stable. Compound fertilizer plants in the Central Plains will start the first round of orders, and spring fertilizer production will be advanced. Winter storage will continue in the Northeast, and some enterprises will stock up at low prices. With the fourth batch of export quotas released, attention should be paid to the dynamics of Indian tenders. Overall, urea prices in December are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [5][98]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Preface - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In December, the domestic urea supply will be high and stable, and the demand will be generally stable. Urea prices are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, go short first and then long between 1600 - 1700. For arbitrage, focus on the 5 - 9 positive spread. For options, the lower bound is 1600, and the upper bound is 1700 [6][98]. 2. Fundamental Situation (1) Market Review - In November, the ex - factory prices of domestic urea in major regions fluctuated. The daily production of domestic urea increased to over 200,000 tons, with sufficient overall supply. The impact of exports on the domestic market gradually faded, and the market returned to the domestic supply - demand fundamentals. The overall demand was stable, and the ex - factory prices of urea in major regions fluctuated between 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton, and ended the month at around 1570 - 1600 yuan/ton [10][11]. - The main futures contract of urea fluctuated widely, with the center slightly moving up. In the first half of November, it was affected by the fourth batch of quotas and rebounded continuously, reaching a maximum of 1679 yuan/ton. In the second half, it returned to the domestic supply - demand fundamentals and declined weakly. By the end of the month, the 2601 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [25]. (2) Supply Analysis - New Production Mostly Concentrated in the Second Half of the Year - From January to November 2025, 450,000 tons of new domestic urea plants were put into production. In November, 70,000 tons of new plants were expected to be put into operation. By the end of the year, the total domestic urea production capacity is expected to reach about 8.26 million tons [31][33]. - From January to October, the cumulative domestic urea production reached 5.906 million tons, a significant increase of 430,000 tons or 7.86% compared to the same period last year. It is estimated that the production in November will be 615,000 tons, and the total production from January to November will reach 6.506 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 471,000 tons or 7.85% [35]. - In December, coal prices are expected to decline first and then rise. As coal prices fluctuate and urea spot prices rebound, coal - based production profits will slightly expand. The daily production of urea is expected to remain around 200,000 tons, and enterprise inventories are expected to fluctuate [39][46][52]. (3) Export - Related Factors - India's urea import demand may decrease in 2025, but the reduction will be limited. The fourth batch of export quotas has been released, and it is estimated that there will still be about 600,000 tons of exports from November to December [58][63]. (4) Demand Improvement in December - The macro - economic recovery is slow. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity [69]. - In December, industrial demand for urea, such as from the melamine industry, is not expected to have significant highlights. The capacity utilization rate of China's melamine in the 48th week of 2025 (November 21 - 27) was 60.80% on average, down 1.40 percentage points from the previous week [75][77]. - In December, compound fertilizer plants will gradually start production. Agricultural top - dressing still has some demand, but it is limited. Compound fertilizer plants in the Central Plains will start the first round of orders, and the production of spring fertilizer will be advanced. Winter storage in the Northeast will continue to support the prices of large - granular urea [84][90][92]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Similar to the preface, in December, supply will be stable at a high level, and demand will be generally stable. Urea prices are expected to "rise after a brief decline" [98]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, go short first and then long between 1600 - 1700. For arbitrage, focus on the 5 - 9 positive spread. For options, the lower bound is 1600, and the upper bound is 1700 [98].

Group 1 - The national production material market prices increased by 0.2% from the previous week [1] - Basic chemical raw material prices mainly rose, with sulfuric acid and soda ash increasing by 4.1% and 0.3% respectively, while polypropylene and methanol decreased by 2.1% and 1.3% [1] Group 2 - Rubber prices continued to rise, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber increasing by 0.9% and 0.8% respectively [2] - Coal prices showed slight fluctuations, with thermal coal and anthracite coal priced at 793 yuan and 1167 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively, while coking coal decreased by 0.3% to 1073 yuan per ton [2] - Steel prices saw a slight increase, with rebar, hot-rolled strip steel, and high-speed wire rod priced at 3337 yuan, 3490 yuan, and 3523 yuan per ton, rising by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.2% respectively [2] Group 3 - Fertilizer prices remained stable with a slight increase, as urea prices were basically unchanged while compound fertilizer rose by 0.4% [3] Group 4 - Wholesale prices of finished oil remained stable, with 92 gasoline and 95 gasoline unchanged from the previous week, while 0 diesel increased by 0.1% [4] Group 5 - Non-ferrous metal prices experienced a slight decline, with aluminum, zinc, and copper decreasing by 0.9%, 0.9%, and 0.3% respectively [5]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.1% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 5.62 yuan per kilogram, down 0.9%, with specific declines in lettuce, broccoli, and spinach of 8.0%, 7.7%, and 3.8% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw slight declines, with eggs and white-feathered chickens decreasing by 1.1% and 0.2% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits increased slightly, with watermelon, grapes, pears, and bananas rising by 4.0%, 1.1%, and 0.6% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials generally increased, with sulfuric acid and soda ash rising by 4.1% and 0.3% respectively [2] - Rubber prices continued to rise, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber increasing by 0.9% and 0.8% respectively [2] - Coal prices showed slight fluctuations, with thermal coal and smokeless lump coal priced at 793 yuan and 1167 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Steel prices experienced slight increases, with rebar, hot-rolled strip steel, and high-speed wire rod rising by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable with a slight increase, as compound fertilizer rose by 0.4% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Range-bound with a bullish bias - Inter-period: Wait and see - Inter-commodity: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The trading atmosphere of urea has improved, and the spot price has been raised. The restart of shutdown plants in Shanxi and Hebei and the increase in the operating rate of large enterprises in Hubei have led to an overall increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers. The operating rate of melamine has decreased, with only rigid demand for procurement. Gradual entry of off-season storage. With the release of new production capacity, the medium- and long-term supply and demand of urea will remain relatively loose, and the gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Driven by reserve demand and the increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers, the sales of urea enterprises have improved, with inventory reduction at factories and a slight increase in port inventory. The highest domestic inventory is still in Inner Mongolia, and the reserve demand in the Northeast has increased, leading to inventory reduction in Inner Mongolia. Continued attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off-season storage rhythm. In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative exports this year have exceeded 4 million tons. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which has improved the export outlook for the end of the year and is expected to support the现货 market to some extent. The urea import tender of India's IPL closed on November 20, with the lowest CFR prices of $418.40/ton at the East Coast and $419.50/ton at the West Coast. A total of 24 suppliers' quantities were received, and the lowest price was higher than the previous one. Continuous attention should be paid to the sentiment and rhythm of domestic spot procurement. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - On November 27, 2025, the closing price of the main urea contract was 1,668 yuan/ton (+14). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was quoted at 1,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price in Shandong was 1,650 yuan/ton (+20), and the price in Jiangsu was 1,640 yuan/ton (+20). The price of small lump anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was -18 yuan/ton (+6), the basis in Henan was -18 yuan/ton (+6), and the basis in Jiangsu was -28 yuan/ton (+6). [1] Urea Production - As of November 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.71% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73,300 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 100,000 tons (unchanged). [1] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of November 27, 2025, the production profit of urea was 120 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 1,014 yuan/ton (+10). [1] Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative exports this year have exceeded 4 million tons. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which has improved the export outlook for the end of the year and is expected to support the现货 market to some extent. [2] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of November 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.06% (+2.45%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.80% (-1.40%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.65 days (-0.47). [1] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 27, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73,300 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 100,000 tons (unchanged). [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that 米高集团 (Mikado Group) reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the six months ending September 30, 2025, driven by higher average selling prices in the potash fertilizer market [1] Group 2 - The company achieved a revenue of 2.352 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.52% [1] - The profit attributable to the owners of the company was 94.842 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.54% [1] - Earnings per share were reported at 0.1 yuan [1] - The revenue increase was primarily attributed to the rise in average selling prices of products in the potash fertilizer market, which was partially offset by a decrease in sales volume during the period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 10.52% year-on-year, driven by higher average selling prices in the potash fertilizer market, despite a decline in sales volume [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ending September 30, 2025, reached 2.352 billion yuan [1] - Profit attributable to the company's owners was 94.842 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.54% [1] - Earnings per share stood at 0.1 yuan [1] Market Factors - The increase in revenue was primarily attributed to the rise in average selling prices of products in the potash fertilizer market [1] - The revenue growth was partially offset by a decrease in sales volume during the period [1]

【冠通期货研究报告】 关注下游需求持续性 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 27 日 【行情分析】 今日盘面高开高走，日内上涨。行情稳中有所好转，报价抬升，低价报价反 弹后，收单依旧良好。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1580-1610 元/吨，反弹 10 元/吨左右，高端报价在河北地区。基本面来看，日产 大幅偏高于历年同期，气头装置季节性停产以前，上游工厂装置日产将高位运行， 今日日产数据同比去年偏高 6%左右。复合肥工厂开工继续进行，一方面冬储肥 生产以后，生产负荷逐步爬升，虽近期预收单状况欠佳，但目前待发依旧充足， 预计下周将继续提升开工率。本期复合肥工厂开工环比回升 2.45 个百分点。近 期价格上涨以来，下游终端拿货速度有所提高，拿货积极性明显增加，叠加储备 需求，库存连续数周去化，本周环比回落 5.1%。整体来说，供需双增，尿素价格 低位偏强震荡，价格上下均有压制，盘面价格窄幅波动为主，目前需求以储备型 需求为主，持续性不足，关注价格上涨后下游接受情况。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1653 元/吨开盘, 高开高走，日内上涨，最 终收于 1668 元/吨， ...

交易所数据显示，11月27日，亚钾国际收盘43.71元，上涨3.28%，滚动市盈率PE（当前股价与前四季度 每股收益总和的比值）达到22.50倍，总市值403.90亿元。 从行业市盈率排名来看，公司所处的化肥行业行业市盈率平均27.62倍，行业中值23.13倍，亚钾国际排 名第15位。 亚钾国际投资(广州)股份有限公司的主营业务是钾盐矿开采、钾肥生产及销售业务。公司的主要产品是 氯化钾。 最新一期业绩显示，2025年三季报，公司实现营业收入38.67亿元，同比增加55.76%；净利润13.63亿 元，同比增加163.01%，销售毛利率58.91%。 序号股票简称PE(TTM)PE(静)市净率总市值(元)8亚钾国际22.5042.503.09403.90亿行业平均 27.6231.933.25212.98亿行业中值23.1329.772.0279.68亿1云天化9.9110.482.31558.93亿2史丹利 11.0813.111.48108.28亿3新洋丰12.2514.681.68193.10亿4芭田股份12.8227.933.12114.28亿5云图控股 16.0116.121.40129.71亿6川金 ...