对于投资者而言，当前美国政府关门的核心影响在于，它制造了一个关键经济数据的"真空期"。随着非 农就业、CPI等重磅报告的推迟发布，市场判断经济走向和美联储政策路径的难度显著增加。投资者必 须转向依赖替代性数据，但需警惕其固有的局限性和潜在偏差。 据高盛的分析，本次关门对经济的直接冲击相对可控，预计每周将拖累第四季度GDP年化增长率约0.11 个百分点，且这部分损失有望在政府重开后的第一季度得到弥补。然而，关门时间越长，数据缺失带来 的不确定性就越大，这本身就是一种市场风险。 本文将梳理在政府关门期间，投资者可以关注哪些替代数据，它们的优缺点，以及关门对经济和数据质 量的实际影响。 一、 关门或将持久，数据发布面临"真空期" 自10月1日起，美国联邦政府正式关门。与以往不同，此次关门持续时间可能更长。根据预测市场的数 据，此次关门持续至少10天的概率高达85%，与1995年和2013年的情况类似。如果关门持续到10月15日 之后，约130万军警人员将面临薪资停发，届时两党达成妥协的压力将剧增。 政府关门最直接的后果是，几乎所有联邦经济数据都将推迟发布，直到政府重新开放。这包括市场最为 关注的就业报告和消费者价格 ...

世界黄金协会数据显示，过去四周黄金ETF净流入资金激增至136亿美元，这意味着2025年至今净流入 规模已突破600亿美元，创下历年最高纪录。这些ETF持有的黄金总量已超过3800吨，逼近新冠疫情引 发风险资产抛售期间达到的峰值。 "这就是镀金式的错失恐惧症，" Pictet Asset Management首席策略师卢卡·保利尼（Luca Paolini）表 示。"黄金市场规模已如此庞大……令人无法忽视。当达到某个临界点时，配置黄金将成为必然选择。" 高盛预计2025年各国央行购金量将维持在80吨，2026年预计为70吨，并强调新兴市场央行很可能继续推 进外汇储备向黄金的结构性配置转型。 高盛分析师表示，随着市场预期美联储将在2026年中期前降息100个基点，西方黄金ETF持仓规模预计 将持续增长。"相比之下，波动较大的投机性头寸总体保持稳定。在9月大幅增长后，西方ETF持仓水平 现已完全符合我们基于美国利率模型的预估，这表明近期的ETF强势并非超调。" 高盛集团周一将2026年12月的黄金价格预测从每盎司4300美元大幅上调至4900美元，该行指出此举主要 基于西方交易所交易基金（ETF）强劲的资金流入以 ...

来源：大伟看楼市 高盛最新报告指出，美国经济重新加速的可能性正在上升，主要原因包括劳动力市场韧性、财政刺激预 期以及宽松金融环境等多重利好因素。最新公布的首次申请失业救济人数数据令人振奋，而高盛全球投 资研究部门预测，第三季度美国GDP 增长率将达到健康的2.6%，为明年上半年的经济增长提供有力支 撑。 经济重新加速的前景将对美联储货币政策产生重要影响，尤其是在新任主席人选即将出炉的情况下。高 盛指出，2025年与2026年美联储的货币政策路径可能大不相同。对于今年剩余时间，高盛预测政策利率 将逐步正常化至接近中性水准(3-3.5%)，并预计10月与12月各降息25个基点，以避免过度限制劳动力市 场。对于明年，货币政策将高度依赖新主席的政策倾向。 2025 年 10 月楼市稳政策的核心亮点，在于 "LPR 基准下调 + 固定加点优惠" 的双重降息设计，形成覆 盖存量与增量市场的系统性减负方案。这一机制突破单一利率调整的局限，通过 "基准浮动 + 优惠固 定" 的重构实现精准滴灌：全国商业性个人住房贷款统一享受 LPR-30BP 的固定加点优惠，同时市场普 遍预期 10 月 5 年期 LPR 将下调 10-20 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $4,900 per ounce, an increase of $600 or nearly 14% from the previous estimate of $4,300, driven by a 17% rise in gold prices since August 26 due to "sticky" fund inflows, primarily from Western ETFs and central bank purchases [1][2] Group 1: Fund Inflows - The recent surge in gold prices is mainly attributed to two types of "sticky" fund inflows: Western ETF investments and central bank purchases, contrasting with stable speculative positions [2] - Western ETF holdings have fully reached Goldman Sachs' implied valuation level based on U.S. interest rates, indicating that the recent strong performance of ETFs is not an overreaction [2] - Central bank purchases have rebounded, reflecting a recovery after the summer lull, with expectations of continued growth in central bank buying [2][3] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risks - Despite the higher starting point, Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for a 23% price increase by the end of 2026, with central bank purchases contributing 19 percentage points and ETF inflows from Federal Reserve rate cuts contributing 5 percentage points [3][4] - The risk for the upgraded gold price forecast remains skewed to the upside, driven by private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market, which may push ETF holdings beyond implied valuations based on interest rates [3] - Structural growth in central bank purchases is expected to continue, particularly from emerging market central banks diversifying their reserves into gold [3][4]

Group 1: Japanese Stock Market - The Japanese stock market opened significantly higher, with the Nikkei 225 index surpassing the 48,500 mark, closing at 48,449.85, reflecting a daily increase of 1.05% [3] - Notable individual stocks included Fujikura, which surged over 7%, along with gains in Advantest, SoftBank Group, and DISCO [4] - The USD/JPY exchange rate rose to 150.56 yen [5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Japan's foreign exchange reserves for September reached $1.3413 trillion, up from $1.3242 trillion [6] - Household spending in Japan for August increased by 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected growth of 1.2%, and showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6% against an expected 0.1% [6] Group 3: Government Bond Market - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to auction approximately 700 billion yen of 30-year government bonds, which is seen as a market test for the new policies of the ruling party's president, Sanae Takaichi [6] - Concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability persist, as the government debt has reached twice the GDP, leading to weakened demand from traditional buyers like life insurance companies [6] - Goldman Sachs warned that Takaichi's election could lead to increased volatility in Japan's long-term government bonds, potentially affecting bond markets in the US and UK [8] Group 4: Gold Market - Gold futures reached a historic high of $4,000 per ounce, marking an increase of over 50% for the year [9] - Spot gold also hit a record high at $3,973.56 per ounce [9] Group 5: US Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing US government shutdown is projected to reduce the US GDP by approximately 0.1% per week, with an estimated economic output loss of $150 billion [11] - If the shutdown continues for a month, it could lead to an additional 43,000 job losses and a $30 billion decrease in consumer spending [11]

Core Points - The role of underwriters in NYSE IPOs is crucial for ensuring compliance with listing standards, accurate information disclosure, and smooth execution of the issuance process [2][3] Group 1: Responsibilities of NYSE IPO Underwriters - Underwriters assist issuers in meeting NYSE listing requirements and completing high-quality IPOs while maintaining market confidence [2] - Initial screening and feasibility assessment involve evaluating the issuer's qualifications against NYSE standards, including market capitalization, revenue, net profit, equity, and public float [2] - Comprehensive due diligence includes financial, legal, operational, and governance assessments to ensure the issuer's compliance and the accuracy of disclosures [2][3] - The preparation and submission of the S-1 registration statement to the SEC is a key responsibility, ensuring that all necessary information is clearly presented [2][3] - Pricing and roadshow coordination involve determining the offering price range and organizing presentations to institutional investors [2][3] Group 2: Key Focus Areas for NYSE IPO Underwriters - The depth of due diligence is emphasized, requiring underwriters to conduct thorough investigations beyond surface-level representations from issuers [3] - Information disclosure must be sufficient and comprehensible, avoiding generic statements and ensuring that risk factors are quantified [4] - Market rationality in valuation and pricing is critical, as overpricing can lead to post-IPO declines, while underpricing can affect fundraising [4] - The roadshow serves an educational purpose for investors, helping to convey the company's value proposition clearly [4] - Post-IPO reputation risk is significant, as underwriters face scrutiny if issuers are later found to have engaged in fraudulent activities [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The role of sponsors in the IPO process on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) is critical for ensuring compliance with listing standards, adequate information disclosure, and maintaining market integrity. Group 1: Responsibilities of LSE IPO Sponsors - Sponsors are responsible for conducting comprehensive due diligence on the issuer to ensure transparency in business, financial, legal, and operational conditions [2] - They lead the preparation and review of the prospectus, ensuring compliance with the UK Prospectus Regulation and LSE requirements, with a focus on accuracy and completeness [2] - Sponsors must verify the issuer's compliance with LSE listing standards, including business authenticity, financial compliance, legal risks, and management capability [3] - Continuous post-IPO supervision is required to ensure adherence to listing rules and timely, accurate disclosures [3][4] Group 2: Key Points for LSE IPO Sponsors - Sponsors must demonstrate that they have taken "all reasonable steps" in due diligence, as failure to do so may result in liability for disclosure violations [5] - The "single responsibility principle" holds sponsors ultimately accountable for the overall accuracy of the prospectus, with potential regulatory penalties for misleading content [6] - For AIM market issuers, sponsors have heightened responsibilities for ongoing support and must implement internal quality control processes to mitigate risks [7] - AIM sponsors must closely monitor operational stability and report any non-compliance with public holding or market value requirements to the LSE [9]

Core Insights - The UK Treasury, led by Chancellor Reeves, is hosting a closed-door roundtable with Goldman Sachs' senior banker Anthony Gutmann to promote London as a viable IPO destination [1] - The meeting aims to gather opinions on London's attractiveness for listings and showcase recent reforms aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of the capital markets [1] - London’s IPO financing in August reached its lowest level in 30 years, dropping to 23rd place globally, even falling behind Mexico [1] - Goldman Sachs' involvement in this Treasury-led meeting is seen as unusual, providing them with a unique opportunity to promote potential listings for free [1] - This initiative reflects growing concerns about the UK's financial standing [1]

Core Viewpoint - Top investment banks on Wall Street are shifting their focus from expectations of an economic slowdown to preparing for a potential acceleration of the U.S. economy, contrary to previous market predictions [1] Economic Indicators - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan emphasized the need for caution regarding interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation and a resilient labor market, indicating that current monetary policy may still be only "moderately restrictive" [3] - Goldman Sachs noted a significant rise in the U.S. macroeconomic surprise index and strong initial jobless claims data, predicting a healthy 2.6% GDP growth rate for Q3, supported by a robust labor market and potential fiscal stimulus [5] Financial Environment - A loose financial environment is fostering conditions for economic acceleration, with strong performance in risk assets, expectations of future Fed rate cuts, and a weaker dollar contributing to consumer and investment growth [5] Fiscal Policy and Investment - Wall Street anticipates a positive fiscal policy pulse in the first half of next year, with capital expenditures in the AI sector expected to drive economic growth [7] - U.S. tech capital expenditures as a percentage of GDP have reached double the levels seen during the internet bubble, nearing pre-2008 financial crisis real estate investment levels [7] Investment Strategies - UBS suggests small-cap stocks as a favorable investment during economic expansion phases, with historical data showing average excess returns of 8% after mid-cycle slowdowns and 20% post-recession [7] - UBS and Citigroup recommend Latin American currency carry trades, particularly the Mexican peso, which can benefit from stronger U.S. economic growth [8] Commodity Outlook - Citigroup and UBS are optimistic about commodities in the event of economic acceleration, with Citigroup recommending copper options and UBS suggesting oil as a hedging tool despite bearish market sentiment [10] Yield Curve Strategy - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup advocate for steepening the yield curve as a hedge against the risks of U.S. economic acceleration, with Citigroup suggesting that front-end rates are unlikely to rise significantly even if the economy accelerates [11] Federal Reserve Challenges - The Federal Reserve faces a complex monetary policy landscape, balancing the need to address labor market pressures while managing inflation risks, leading to a cautious approach to rate cuts [13]

Core Viewpoint - The current investment boom in artificial intelligence (AI) is viewed as a "good bubble" by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, suggesting that despite potential market crashes similar to the 2000 internet bubble, it will yield significant long-term benefits for society [1][2] Group 1: Perspectives on AI Investment - Bezos emphasizes that the AI investment wave is fundamentally different from pure financial bubbles, likening it to the industrial revolutions that propelled the internet and biotechnology [1][2] - He cites historical examples, noting that the infrastructure investments during the internet bubble still provide value today, and innovations from the biotechnology boom have saved countless lives [2] - Bezos acknowledges the difficulty investors face in distinguishing between "good ideas and bad ideas," leading to widespread funding across various AI projects, but asserts that AI is real and will transform every industry [2] Group 2: Cautionary Views from Industry Leaders - David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, expresses a more cautious stance, recognizing AI's potential to enhance productivity while warning that the influx of capital may not yield expected returns [3] - Solomon reflects on the uncertainty of whether a bubble has formed, referencing the market conditions of 1998, where concerns about bubbles existed but the market continued to rise for three more years [3] - Both leaders maintain an open attitude towards the long-term prospects of AI technology, with Bezos framing the AI boom as an "industrial bubble" that can leave a valuable legacy, while Solomon focuses on the potential risks within the current investment climate [3]