增值税传闻扰动市场。 近期，一些关于调整游戏、金融等行业增值税税率的传言在部分网络平台上传播。其中，提及金 融业、互联网增值服务等或将面临增值税税率上调，游戏行业的税率有可能从6%调高至32%。 自2026年1月1日起，《中华人民共和国增值税法》和《中华人民共和国增值税法实施条例》同步 施行。专家表示，财税部门近期发布了多项关于增值税政策的公告，这些政策主要是为了更好落 实增值税法、确保立法后的税制连贯性，其中对于游戏、金融等行业适用税率等政策都有明确的 规定，增强了政策确定性和稳定性。 "实际上，增值税立法后，增值税相关行业的税率都已明确，财税部门日前发布多项公告，也没有 调整游戏、金融行业增值税政策。上述传言不具备真实性。"一位业内人士表示。 这位业内人士称，网络传言中还提及游戏行业的税率要"从6%的档次调高至32%的档次"。但 实际 上，目前我国增值税法明确规定，增值税税率最高仅为13%，32%这个档次是不存在的，进一步 说明传言不具备可信度。 综合自：新华社 责编：万健祎 校对： 许欣 受传闻影响，腾讯、网易、世纪华通、三七互娱、巨人网络等盘中一度大幅跳水，其中，腾讯一 度跌超6%，网易从涨超3%一度 ...

Domestic News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, released the "Automotive Data Export Security Guidelines (2026 Edition)" on February 3, aiming to enhance the convenience and safety of automotive data cross-border flow. The guidelines specify management methods and applicable conditions for automotive data export activities, detailing important data determination rules for various business scenarios such as R&D, manufacturing, and automated driving, while also proposing protection requirements to improve data security [1] - Recent rumors regarding potential increases in VAT rates for the gaming and financial sectors have been deemed unsubstantiated by experts and industry insiders. Reports suggested that the gaming industry's VAT could rise from 6% to 32%, but these claims lack credibility [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that starting from February 3, domestic retail prices for gasoline and diesel will increase by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively. This translates to an increase of 0.16 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.17 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.17 yuan for 0-octane diesel [2] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced plans to expand the national copper strategic reserve and explore a commercial reserve mechanism, including the potential inclusion of easily liquidated copper concentrate in the reserve system [2] International News - The KOSPI index in South Korea closed at 5288.08 points on February 3, marking an increase of 338.41 points, or 6.84%, the largest single-day gain in nearly six years [4] - The Tokyo stock market saw significant gains on February 3, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 3.92% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index increasing by 3.10% [5] - The Australian Reserve Bank announced a 25 basis point increase in the benchmark interest rate to 3.85%, marking the first rate hike in over two years [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company, known for its "Talking Tom" IP, is fundamentally a mobile advertising firm that generates revenue through in-game ads from its casual mobile games. However, it has faced significant financial losses, with projected losses of 11 to 14 billion yuan for 2025, following losses exceeding 8 billion yuan in both 2023 and 2024. The core advertising business is under pressure from industry-wide downturns [1][11][30]. Financial Performance - The company reported net losses of 8.65 billion yuan in 2023 and 8.59 billion yuan in 2024. For 2025, it anticipates a further increase in losses to between 11 billion and 14 billion yuan, with a projected non-GAAP net loss of 10.7 billion to 13.7 billion yuan [11][30][31]. - The expected significant losses for 2025 are attributed to an anticipated asset impairment provision of approximately 10.2 billion to 13.2 billion yuan, primarily related to goodwill from acquisitions and long-term equity investments [30][31]. Revenue Sources - The company's revenue heavily relies on its "Talking Tom" family IP, primarily through in-app advertising. The main revenue engine is the monetization of in-game ads, which includes various ad formats such as rewarded videos, interstitial ads, and banner ads [15][32]. - In the first half of 2025, the company generated 3.35 billion yuan from advertising, accounting for 72.41% of total revenue. New business services contributed 0.52 billion yuan (11.19%), game publishing brought in 0.5 billion yuan (10.7%), and licensing generated 0.11 billion yuan (2.34%) [17][35]. R&D Investment - Despite covering over thirty cutting-edge technology concepts, the company's annual R&D expenditure is less than 200 million yuan. From 2021 to 2024, R&D spending was 119 million yuan, 183 million yuan, 224 million yuan, and 193 million yuan, respectively. In the first three quarters of 2025, R&D spending was only 127 million yuan [7][24][28]. Technology Concepts - The company has aligned itself with various technology trends, including blockchain, metaverse, and AI applications like ChatGPT. It has made announcements regarding the integration of these technologies into its products, which have led to significant stock price fluctuations [2][10][20][27].

Core Viewpoint - Recent rumors regarding the potential increase of VAT rates for the gaming and financial industries have been deemed unsubstantiated by experts and industry insiders [1][2]. VAT Policy Clarification - The new VAT law and its implementation regulations will take effect on January 1, 2026, ensuring continuity in the tax system [1][2]. - Recent announcements from the financial and tax departments aim to better implement the VAT law and clarify applicable tax rates for industries such as gaming and finance, enhancing policy certainty and stability [1][2]. Misleading Rumors - Claims that the gaming industry's VAT rate could rise from 6% to 32% are inaccurate, as the current VAT law specifies a maximum rate of only 13%, making the 32% rate non-existent [1][2].

尽管遭遇成本逆风，任天堂仍维持了全年业绩指引，预计全财年营收为2.25万亿日元，营业利润为3700 亿日元，并重申了Switch 2全年1900万台的销量目标。这表明管理层依然寄希望于通过扩大用户基数来 稳固其生态系统，但在组件价格持续上涨的预期下，如何平衡市场份额扩张与成本控制，已成为这家京 都老牌游戏巨头当前面临的最大考验。 任天堂公布的最新季度财报显示，其旗舰产品Switch 2虽然销量超出市场预期的平均水平，但季度营业 利润仅为1552.1亿日元（约合9.985亿美元），远低于分析师预估的1807亿日元。尽管季度销售额飙升逾 80%至8063.2亿日元，但利润增长幅度受限至23%，同样不及市场预期。这一业绩落差引发了投资者对 公司盈利能力的担忧，核心焦点在于飙升的组件成本正在侵蚀这款新硬件本就微薄的利润率。 此次财报暴露了任天堂面临的双重挤压：一方面是美国关税带来的全球贸易干扰，另一方面则是更为深 远的供应链结构性挑战。由于芯片制造商将更多产能分配给利润丰厚的AI数据中心专用高端存储器， 导致普通消费电子所需的存储芯片供应趋紧且价格飞涨。市场分析指出，这种成本压力正在削弱任天堂 通过长期供应合同建立的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry may face potential tax increases, with rumors suggesting a rise from 6% to 32%, similar to the liquor industry, which has caused fluctuations in tech stocks and concerns among investors [2][12]. Group 1: Tax Rumors and Industry Reactions - The rumor about tax increases in the gaming industry is not new, with previous speculations arising from regulatory changes in advertising costs and telecommunications [4][14]. - Analysts express skepticism about the rumors, suggesting they may be attempts to manipulate stock prices for personal gain [2][13]. - A financial analyst noted that such rumors resurface every couple of years, indicating a pattern of speculation rather than concrete policy changes [4][14]. Group 2: Current Industry Landscape - The gaming industry is currently benefiting from supportive local policies in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, recognizing its role in cultural output [5][15]. - Profit margins in the gaming sector are often overestimated; only a few blockbuster games generate significant profits, while many products struggle to break even or incur losses [6][16]. - The perception of high profitability is skewed by the visibility of successful titles, overshadowing the financial struggles of less successful games [7][16]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Chinese gaming industry is at a critical growth phase, with a shift from traditional AAA game models to GaaS (Games as a Service) becoming more prevalent [9][18]. - Global competition in the gaming sector is intensifying, with European countries implementing policies to support their gaming industries, such as Germany's commitment to provide €125 million annually starting in 2026 [9][18]. - The future of the gaming industry will depend on comprehensive strength and the ability of Chinese companies to fulfill their social responsibilities amidst evolving market dynamics [9][18].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant volatility, with the Hang Seng Index dropping over 1% at one point before closing with a slight rebound, ending at 26,834.77 points, up 59.20 points, or 0.22% [12][2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell over 3% during the day but narrowed its losses by the end, closing at 5,467.26 points, down 59.05 points, or 1.07% [15][4] Tax Rumor Impact - A rumor regarding a potential increase in value-added tax rates for the financial and internet value-added services (such as in-game purchases and advertising) led to market turbulence, particularly affecting Tencent Holdings, which saw its stock drop over 6% intraday and close down 2.92% [14][3] - A brokerage firm clarified that the claim of aligning game tax rates with the 32% rate for liquor is misleading, as the two tax types differ significantly in nature and application [18][6] Market Sentiment and Reactions - The brokerage noted that the rumor is typical market noise, likely stemming from an over-interpretation of a single policy document, and suggested that the actual future tax regulations would focus on reviewing tax incentives for certain companies rather than increasing statutory rates [18][6] - The firm emphasized that the core drivers for internet leading companies remain their business growth, AI commercialization, and profitability, indicating that short-term emotional disturbances do not alter long-term fundamentals [18][6] Precious Metals Market - Following a sharp decline, the precious metals market showed signs of stabilization, with spot gold recovering above $4,900 and silver returning above $86 [20][8] - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations that the de-dollarization process will continue, and the recent price adjustments do not signify the end of the bull market [20][8] Fund Flows - Southbound funds continued to show small-scale net buying of Hong Kong stocks, with a net purchase exceeding 900 million HKD by the end of the trading day [21][9] Future Outlook - Analysts from Guoyuan International expressed concerns that the nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair could lead to market apprehension regarding potential adjustments in monetary policy, impacting risk appetite in the Hong Kong market [23][11] - CITIC Securities indicated that earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks have already undergone significant adjustments, and the spring market trend observed since late December 2025 is likely to continue, with large-cap stocks expected to yield relative returns [23][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of a rumor regarding potential tax rate adjustments on the gaming industry, which led to significant fluctuations in stock prices for major gaming companies like Tencent and NetEase. However, the credibility of the rumor is questioned by industry experts and analysts [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On February 3, gaming stocks experienced a sharp decline, with Tencent dropping over 6% and NetEase falling more than 3% during intraday trading. However, by the end of the day, A-share gaming stocks rebounded, with Century Huatong and Jiubang Technology both rising over 2% [2]. - The gaming index (BK1406) increased by more than 3.4% by the end of the trading day, with several stocks, including Shunwang Technology, seeing significant gains, with a rise of 13.8% [2][3]. Group 2: Tax Rumor Analysis - A rumor suggested that the financial and internet value-added services, including in-game purchases and advertising, might face a tax rate increase from 6% to align with the 32% rate of the liquor industry, which could compress profit margins for companies like Tencent [4]. - Industry insiders have largely dismissed the rumor as lacking credibility, with Century Huatong stating they have not received any related information and that their operations remain normal [5]. - Analysts argue that the proposed tax increase from 6% to 32% is unlikely, as many companies already operate within a tax rate range of 15%-25%, and such a tax adjustment would require extensive legislative processes [5][6]. Group 3: Legal and Policy Considerations - The article highlights that the rumor is based on a misunderstanding of tax classifications, as the 32% rate applies to consumption tax, while the gaming and internet services are subject to value-added tax (VAT) at 6% [8]. - Current tax regulations, as outlined in the VAT law effective from January 1, 2026, specify three tax rates: 13%, 9%, and 6%, with financial and modern services falling under the 6% category [8][10]. - Analysts from Huachuang Securities emphasize that any tax increase would likely be passed on to consumers, contradicting the government's current focus on promoting consumption and economic growth [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media and internet industry, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [5][40]. Core Insights - The media industry saw a weekly increase of 0.32%, outperforming both the CSI 300 index (0.08%) and the ChiNext index (-0.09%) during the week of January 26 to January 30 [1][11]. - Key highlights include the popularity of the AI project Clawdbot, the release of the DeepSeek-OCR2 document recognition model, and the success of new products from Pop Mart [2][4][17]. - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in marketing and content services, particularly in the context of the GEO restructuring and commercialization efforts [4][36]. Industry Performance - The media sector ranked 9th in terms of weekly performance among all sectors, with notable gainers including Tiandi Online (up 51%), Hengdian Film (up 32%), and Insai Group (up 28%) [11][12]. - Conversely, companies like Giant Network and Baida Qiancheng experienced significant declines [11][12]. Key Company Forecasts and Ratings - Key companies with "Outperform" ratings include: - Kaiying Network (24.92 CNY, market cap 532 million CNY, EPS 1.01 for 2025E) [5][38] - G-bits (455.00 CNY, market cap 328 million CNY, EPS 22.92 for 2025E) [5][38] - 37 Interactive Entertainment (26.52 CNY, market cap 587 million CNY, EPS 1.38 for 2025E) [5][38] Important Data Tracking - The box office for the week of January 26 to February 1 reached 257 million CNY, with top films including "Zootopia 2" (41 million CNY, 16.0% market share) and "Water Pipe" (63 million CNY, 13.8% market share) [3][19]. - In the gaming sector, the top three mobile games by revenue in December 2025 were Point Interactive's "Whiteout Survival," Lemon Micro's "Gossip Harbor: Merge & Story," and Point Interactive's "Kingshot" [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI applications and the gaming sector for investment opportunities, particularly in companies that are expected to benefit from AI-driven marketing and product cycles [4][36].

Core Viewpoint - The credibility of rumors regarding potential tax rate adjustments for the gaming and internet value-added services industry is considered low by industry insiders [1][4][6]. Market Reaction - On February 3, a rumor caused significant fluctuations in the gaming stock market, with Tencent's shares dropping over 6% and NetEase's shares falling more than 3% at one point. However, by the end of the trading day, A-share gaming stocks rebounded, with Century Huatong and Jiubang Technology both rising over 2% [1]. - The gaming index (BK1406) increased by more than 3.4%, with notable gains from companies like Shunwang Technology, which surged by 13.8% [1][2]. Tax Rumor Details - A rumor suggested that the gaming and internet value-added services sectors might face a tax rate increase from 6% to align with the 32% rate applicable to the liquor industry, which could compress profit margins for companies like Tencent [3]. - Industry analysts have expressed skepticism about the feasibility of such a tax increase, citing the complexity of revenue structures in large companies and the existing tax rates already being in the 15%-25% range [4][5]. Industry Response - Various industry representatives have denied receiving any information regarding the rumored tax changes, with Century Huatong stating that their operations remain normal [4]. - Analysts from Dolphin Investment Research and other firms have indicated that the market reaction is likely an overreaction to the rumors, emphasizing that significant tax changes would require extensive procedural groundwork [5][6]. Legal and Policy Considerations - Legal experts and analysts have pointed out that the rumor lacks a solid legal basis, as the current tax structure is defined by the Value-Added Tax Law, which specifies three tax rates: 13%, 9%, and 6% [6][7]. - The current policy focus is on stabilizing growth and supporting innovation, making a broad tax increase counterproductive to government objectives [8].