1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation of urea is relatively stable, but attention should be paid to the short - term impact of news such as market management of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects and the acceleration of the elimination of backward production capacity on the market [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market Changes - The weekly price of urea decreased significantly. On December 12, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton from the previous week. The highest price during the period was 1670 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1624 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a decline of 1.3% [2][3] - The spot price of urea was relatively stable, while the futures price declined, and the main - contract basis strengthened continuously. On December 12, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was 45 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis ranged from 28 to 45 yuan/ton [2][6] - The 1 - 5 spread of urea fluctuated in a narrow range. On December 12, the 1 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan/ton, and the weekly range was from - 68 to - 58 yuan/ton [2][6] Fundamental Changes Supply - The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 83.95%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 63.6%, a decrease of 4.54 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average output of urea was 19.79 tons. Next week, the maintenance devices in Shandong may resume production, and the daily output will still be around 200,000 tons [2][9] Cost - The anthracite fines market continued to decline, while the lump coal price remained stable. As of December 11, the tax - included price of anthracite washed small lumps with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 890 - 950 yuan/ton, with the same closing price as the previous week [2][12] Demand - In terms of agricultural demand, most of the current purchases are for reserves. In terms of industrial demand, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 40.62%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week. The inventory of compound fertilizers was 67.74 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased recently, and the speed of finished - product inventory reduction has slowed down. Compound fertilizers are in the final stage of autumn fertilizers, and the pre - sales of winter reserve fertilizers are the main focus, with a relatively loose market supply. The support from other industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin has increased [2][17][21] Inventory - The inventory of urea enterprises was 972,000 tons, a decrease of 91,000 tons from the previous week. The port inventory of urea was 320,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 11,296, totaling 225,920 tons, an increase of 811 receipts or 16,220 tons from the previous week [2][28] Key Points to Watch - The operating situation of compound fertilizer plants, the reduction and maintenance of urea plants, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [6][20]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic judgment for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic improvement, with Brent oil prices expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [6][7]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to combat "involution" in competition, which is expected to benefit the chemical industry through optimized capacity and improved profitability [6][7]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the refrigerant market, with specific quotas set for 2026, and suggests focusing on companies like Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Dongyangguang [6][7]. - The commercial aerospace sector is anticipated to enter a golden age, driven by the rapid deployment of low-orbit satellite constellations, with a projected market size of 60 billion yuan for ceramic shells [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is constrained due to OPEC+ production delays, while demand is stabilizing, leading to a forecast of sustained low oil prices [7]. - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, and natural gas costs may decrease as the U.S. accelerates export facility construction [6][7]. Chemical Sector Configuration - The report suggests a diversified investment approach across various chains, including textiles, agriculture, and export-related chemicals, benefiting from the "involution" policy [6][20]. - Key materials for growth are identified, including semiconductor materials and OLED panel materials, with specific companies highlighted for investment [6][20]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key companies in the chemical sector, indicating their market capitalization and projected earnings [20][21].

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 14, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short - term outlook for urea is weak, while medium - term outlook is oscillatory [2] - The driving force is neutral in the short - term, with spot trading weakening and futures prices under oscillatory pressure. The subsequent driving force depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment [2] - In terms of valuation, there may be policy pressure on urea. The 01 contract has a strong fundamental resistance level at 1700 yuan/ton and a support level between 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory Supply - **Capacity**: The expansion pattern of urea capacity continued in 2025. The total new capacity in 2024 was 392 tons, and in 2025 it was 664 tons. There are also planned new capacities in 2026 [23] - **Production**: From December 4 - 10, 2025, China's urea production was 1385400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%. Next week, the production is expected to be around 1.39 million tons with limited change [2] - **Cost**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory cash - flow cost line has risen [29] - **Profit**: Urea cash - flow cost - corresponding profit is currently in a profitable state [34] - **Net Import (Export)**: During the reserve period, export policies have tightened [40] Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Seasonal demand for agriculture is strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn [46][49] - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer industry's fundamentals show certain trends in capacity utilization, production cost, inventory and production profit [53][54][55] - **Melamine**: The melamine industry's fundamentals include production profit, market price, production volume and capacity utilization [57][58] - **Real Estate and Wood Products**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [60] Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: On December 10, 2025, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 1.2342 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.36%. Inventory decreased in some provinces and increased in others [2][66] - **Port Inventory**: China's urea port sample inventory was 123000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.14%, with some ports receiving more goods [2][66] International Urea - **Price**: The report presents the price trends of international urea, including FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and the CFR price in Brazil [19][70][71][72][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for urea is weak, while the medium - term outlook is volatile. The driving force is currently neutral. With the suppression of speculative activities in the fertilizer sector by sulfur and phosphate policies, spot trading has weakened, and the price is expected to experience a short - term weak correction. As the 01 contract approaches delivery, the increase in warehouse receipts is significant, and the futures price is expected to face downward pressure in a volatile manner. The subsequent driving force depends on the continuity of mid - stream inventory replenishment. The fundamental situation provides support for the price due to the continuous reduction of explicit inventory. The upper resistance level for the 01 contract is 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the lower static support level is 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Production: In the week from December 4th to 10th, 2025, China's urea production was 1385,400 tons, a 0.02% increase from the previous period. Two new plants stopped production, and five restarted. Next week, the production is expected to be around 1.39 million tons, with limited fluctuations. In the next cycle, two plants are expected to stop production, and one may restart. The production capacity expansion pattern of urea in 2025 continues, with 664 million tons of new production capacity added in 2025 [2][23]. - Production Cost: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has risen. The cash - flow cost of urea production currently corresponds to a profitable state [29][34]. - Import and Export: In the reserve period, export policies have tightened. As of December 11, the 50th week of 2025, the sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 123,000 tons, a 17.14% increase from the previous week. The impact of urea exports on the market is weakening [2][40]. Demand - Agricultural Demand: Agricultural demand is seasonally strong. The construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn. The production cost, inventory, and production profit of compound fertilizers show certain trends, and the capacity utilization rate also has fluctuations [46][49]. - Industrial Demand: The fundamentals of compound fertilizers, melamine, and the demand for panels in the real estate industry have different characteristics. The demand for panels in the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [55][56][61]. Inventory - Factory Inventory: On December 10th, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2342 million tons, a 4.36% decrease from the previous week. The inventory decreased in some provinces and increased in others [2][67]. - Port Inventory: The sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 123,000 tons, a 17.14% increase from the previous week. The ports with increased inventory are Tianjin Port and Longkou Port for small - particle urea [2][67]. International Market - International Urea Prices: The report presents the price trends of Chinese large - particle urea FOB, Baltic large - particle urea FOB, Middle East large - particle urea FOB, and Brazilian large - particle urea CFR from 2018 to 2025 [70][71][72][73][74].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 美国突然出现重大转变。 据最新消息，当地时间12月13日，美国宣布解除对白俄罗斯钾肥的制裁。据悉，白俄罗斯是全球主要钾 肥生产国，此前约占全球钾肥出口的20%。白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科当天赦免了123名在押人员。 据悉，此前卢卡申科与美国总统白俄罗斯问题特使约翰·科尔进行了为期两天的闭门会谈。美媒评论 称，此次美白两国外交关系的转变，被普遍视为两国改善双边关系的信号。 解除制裁 观察者网援引美联社报道，当地时间12月13日，美国宣布解除对白俄罗斯钾肥的制裁。另据白俄罗斯国 家通讯社报道，白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科当天赦免了123名在押人员。 回顾此前，2021年8月9日，在卢卡申科再度当选该国总统一周年的当天，时任拜登政府以所谓"操控选 举"为由，对白俄罗斯钾肥实施新一轮制裁。制裁对象包括白俄罗斯最大国企之一、钾肥生产商 Belaruskali OAO。 这一制裁严重影响了白俄罗斯的经济支柱和外汇主要来源。此后白俄罗斯通过调整出口路线等方式应对 美国制裁。 据白通社报道，在当地时间周五及周六于明斯克与卢卡申科会晤后，美国总统特朗普的白俄罗斯事务特 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of urea declined again after the positive factors were digested and the energy - chemical sector weakened. However, considering the current demand, seasonal decline in gas - based supply, and high - level inventory reduction, the downside space is expected to be limited. The strategy is to consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Supported by compound fertilizer and reserve demand, the price had been rising. This week, it declined due to positive factor digestion and the weakening of the energy - chemical sector. Currently, demand is okay, gas - based supply is seasonally decreasing, and enterprise inventory continues to decline from a high level [12]. - **Supply**: Domestic enterprise operating rate is 81.85%, a 0.02% week - on - week increase, and is expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term. The latest daily production is 19.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.04 million tons [12]. - **Demand**: Reserve demand is gradually decreasing, while compound fertilizer demand is fair, with a 40.62% operating rate, a 0.09% week - on - week increase. Future demand should focus on changes in off - season storage and export demand [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Enterprise profits weakened slightly again and are still at a low level. The basis strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread declined [12]. - **Valuation**: Export profits are at a high level, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued [12]. - **Inventory**: This week, enterprise inventory was 1.2342 billion tons, a decrease of 563,000 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline from a high level. Port inventory was 123 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons week - on - week, and the speed of goods gathering at ports accelerated [12]. - **Market Logic**: The decrease in reserve demand and the weakening sentiment in the energy - chemical sector led to the price decline, but the downside space is limited [12]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of 09, 01, and 05 contracts all decreased compared to a week ago. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 1 [13]. - **Domestic Spot Market**: The prices in Shandong increased by 20, in Henan remained unchanged, and in Hebei decreased by 20. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei all increased [13]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Hubei increased by 50, and the price of melamine increased by 16. The profit of compound fertilizer in Shandong decreased by 1, in Hubei increased by 20, and the profit of melamine increased by 46 [13]. - **International Prices**: International prices such as FOB Arabian Gulf, FOB Baltic, etc., all decreased, and the export profit of urea decreased by 76 [13]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The production profits of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - based production all had certain fluctuations, and enterprise profits weakened slightly again and were at a low level [30][31][34]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory continued to decline from a high level, and port inventory increased. The inventory of urea warehouses also had corresponding changes [38][42]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Operating Rate**: The gas - based operating rate decreased seasonally, while the coal - based operating rate increased. The overall supply is expected to remain high and fluctuate in the future [48]. - **Device Maintenance**: Many enterprises carried out maintenance, resulting in certain production losses. There are also some planned maintenance devices in the future [51][52]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption Forecast**: The monthly consumption of urea showed certain seasonal characteristics [56]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 40.62%, a 0.09% week - on - week increase. The production profit and the ratio of urea to compound fertilizer also had corresponding changes [59][60]. - **Nitrogen Source Price Ratio**: The ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate all had certain fluctuations [68]. - **Melamine**: The operating rate, profit, and export volume of melamine all had corresponding changes [71]. - **Terminal Demand**: The export volume of plywood, housing construction data, and real - estate transaction data all had certain impacts on the demand for urea [79]. - **Export**: The export profit of urea was at a high level, and the export volume and the export volumes of other fertilizers also had corresponding changes [90]. 3.6. Options - Related - **Urea Options**: The trading volume, open interest, and PCR of urea options all had certain fluctuations, and the volatility of urea options also changed with the futures price [98]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - **Urea Industry Chain**: The report analyzed the characteristics of the urea industry chain, including the fertilizer demand of different crops in different regions and different seasons, and the seasonal characteristics of global fertilizer demand [111].

Core Viewpoint - *ST San Sheng has undergone a significant change in control with Hebei Jiheng Group becoming the largest shareholder, marking a new phase for the company following its bankruptcy restructuring [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholder Changes - Hebei Jiheng Group acquired 120 million shares of *ST San Sheng, representing 17.54% of the total share capital post-restructuring, for a total consideration of 184 million yuan at a price of 1.53 yuan per share [1]. - The change in control is a critical execution point following the approval of *ST San Sheng's bankruptcy restructuring plan, which received 254 million yuan from all restructuring investors [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Support and Governance - Jiheng Group has committed to providing at least 200 million yuan in cash flow support over the next three years to help restore the company's operational capabilities [1]. - The governance structure of *ST San Sheng will be optimized, moving towards a more standardized and sustainable development phase [2]. Group 3: New Board of Directors - The new board candidates include non-independent directors nominated by Jiheng Group and independent directors nominated by a shareholder, with a total of seven candidates proposed [3][4]. - A temporary shareholders' meeting is scheduled for December 29 to vote on the proposed board members [4]. Group 4: Company Background - Hebei Jiheng Group, established in 1998, operates in pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and fertilizers, with total assets of 4.472 billion yuan and net assets of 2.989 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025 [2]. - The group reported a revenue of 3.52 billion yuan and a net profit of 266 million yuan for the full year of 2024, demonstrating strong operational and profitability capabilities [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic supply of urea is abundant, with overall demand being mainly rigid. In the short - term, domestic demand is stable, and the spot market sentiment is okay. However, the downstream's acceptance of high prices has cooled significantly. In the medium - term, the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas has subsided, domestic compound fertilizer raw material procurement is coming to an end, and the overall demand is weak. The urea fundamentals remain loose, and it is expected to be weak in the medium - term. Policy changes need to be closely monitored. The trading strategy is to go short unilaterally without chasing the short, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Overview**: Last week, the view was that high prices were resisted and the spot price increase was weak. This week, the view is that downstream demand has slowed down and urea prices have corrected. The market sentiment has cooled, and the mainstream urea spot ex - factory quotes are weakly stable. Different regions have different price trends. In the short - term, domestic demand is stable, and in the medium - term, the fundamentals are still weak. The trading strategy is unilateral short - selling without chasing the short, and waiting and seeing for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [4]. - **Core Data Changes** - **Supply**: In the 49th week of 2025 (20251204 - 1210), the utilization rate of coal - based urea production capacity in China was 89.61%, a 2.91% week - on - week increase; the utilization rate of gas - based urea production capacity was 55.23%, a 9.89% week - on - week decrease. In Shandong, the urea production capacity utilization rate was 81.28%, a 3.99% week - on - week decrease [5]. - **Demand**: In the 50th week of 2025 (20251205 - 1211), the average weekly utilization rate of China's melamine production capacity was 61.86%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from last week. The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity was 40.62%, a 0.09 - percentage - point week - on - week increase. As of December 12, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,880 tons, a 55.37% week - on - week increase. This week (20251205 - 20251212), the urea arrival volume in the Northeast was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from last week. As of December 10, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.94 days, a 5.58% week - on - week decrease [5]. - **Inventory**: On December 10, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2342 million tons, a 4.36% week - on - week decrease. As of December 11, 2025 (the 50th week), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 123,000 tons, a 17.14% week - on - week increase [5]. - **Valuation**: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal is weak, the decline of Yulin pulverized coal has widened, the urea spot price is stable, the urea production profit has expanded, the fixed - bed production has reached the break - even point, the water - coal slurry production has a profit of 90 yuan/ton, the entrained - flow bed production profit is 300 yuan/ton, the futures are volatile, the basis has expanded to around 45 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 58 yuan/ton [5].

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 12 月 12 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡下跌，最终报收 1625（-20/-1.22%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价平稳，成交乏力，河南出厂报 1630-1650 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1670-1680 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1670-1680 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1580-1600 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1630-1640 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1520-1570 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，山东临沂复合肥样本生产企业尿素需求量 1880 吨，较上 周增加 670 吨，环比涨 55.37%。目前样本复合肥企业开工高位，尿素用量较大，暂时持 续适量采购，保持一定的尿素库存。 【逻辑分析】 1、单边：高空 2、套利：观望 大宗商品研究 主流地区出厂价下跌，市场情绪表现平稳，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价喜爱跌，成 交一般。山东地区主流出厂报价弱稳，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率下滑，原 料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商开 始出货，新单成 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.12.12」 「 期货市场情况」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场窄幅波动，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂至1660-1700元/吨， 均价环比持平。尿素市场窄幅松动，尿素工厂暂时有订单支撑，上下游暂时僵持为主。尿素市场 交投气氛走低，成交重心小幅下移。 行情展望：部分前期检修装置恢复，带动国内尿素产量小幅增加，下周预计2家企业装置计划停车， 1家停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到企业的短时故障，产量变动幅度预计有限。进入12月份之 后储备需求有所放缓，但短期仍有补仓需求。复合肥工业对尿素需求较为坚挺，企业继续排产冬 储肥，复合肥产能利用率预计稳中有升。目前尿素分批进行港口发运，部分企业发运进行收尾阶 段。工业复合肥对尿素的刚需推进、储备需求的适当补仓，以及部分企业出口订单的兑现，助推 本周尿素工厂库存继续下降。短期工业复合肥开工较高，持续需求推进，部分 ...