Core Insights - The article discusses the growth of China's agricultural nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizer production, highlighting an 8.2% year-on-year increase in August 2025, with a cumulative production of 4,353.6 million tons from January to August 2025, reflecting a 10.2% increase [1]. Industry Overview - The fertilizer industry in China is projected to see significant growth, with the production of agricultural nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers reaching 522 million tons in August 2025 [1]. - Cumulative production data for the first eight months of 2025 indicates a robust growth trend, with a total output of 4,353.6 million tons [1]. Company Insights - Listed companies in the fertilizer sector include Salt Lake Co. (000792), Hubei Yihua (000422), Yuntianhua (600096), Luxi Chemical (000830), Xinyangfeng (000902), Stanley (002588), Sichuan Meifeng (000731), and Yangmei Chemical (600691) [1]. - These companies are positioned to benefit from the overall growth in the fertilizer market as indicated by the production statistics [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report believes that the current urea is undervalued, but the upward driving force is temporarily limited. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the situation of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton. Upstream enterprises are already suffering losses, and further price drops may reduce their willingness to start production. In the short term, the upward driving force for urea is insufficient due to large supply and inventory pressure, with downstream enterprises mainly replenishing inventory cautiously at low prices. Possible future driving forces include the expectation of the renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and the issuance of new export quotas [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On October 23, UR01 in Shandong was 1638 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan from the 22nd), in Shanxi was 1550 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and in Henan was 1550 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan). UR05 was 1710 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan, 1.12%), and UR09 was 1740 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan, 0.87%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the domestic small - particle spot market, prices in Hebei were 1590 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan, 0.63%), in the Northeast were 1600 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu were 1550 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan, 0.65%) [1]. - **Cost and Downstream Prices**: The price of anthracite in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively. The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 2900 yuan/ton, and the price of phosphate fertilizer was 2500 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong was 5050 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan, - 0.34%), and in Jiangsu was 5100 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. Important Information The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1628 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1640 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1619 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1638 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1630 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 298,840 lots [1]. Trading Strategy The recommended trading strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [1].

| 杨鈜汉 | | --- | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 2025 年 10 月 24 日 尿素：宏观支撑，短期反弹 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,638 | 1,621 | 1 7 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,630 | 1,617 | 1 3 | | | 尿素主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 147,829 | 121,985 | 25844 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 298,840 | 312,046 | -13206 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 5,484 | 5,556 | -72 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 481,912 | 394,584 | 87328 | | | 基 差 | | 山东地区基差 | -88 | -81 | - 7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guohai Securities indicates that Stanley achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 208 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.36% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 34.61% due to favorable conditions from phosphate fertilizer exports [1] Industry Summary - The average export price of monoammonium phosphate in China for Q3 2025 was $698 per ton, equivalent to approximately 4,993 yuan per ton, significantly higher than the domestic average price [1] - Urea prices have experienced significant volatility, initially rising and then falling, influenced by supply-demand imbalances, export policy negotiations, and fluctuations in international energy prices [1] - Prices for monoammonium phosphate and potassium fertilizers remain high, primarily due to rising sulfur prices, adjustments in phosphate fertilizer export policies, domestic reductions in potassium fertilizer production, tight imports of potassium fertilizer, and geopolitical conflicts [1] Company Summary - The company focuses on compound fertilizers and has established significant competitive advantages in brand strength, marketing channel development, new product research, and agricultural services [1] - The company is actively advancing the construction of phosphate chemical projects, creating a complete industrial chain from phosphate chemicals to phosphate fertilizers and compound fertilizers [1] - The strategic value of technological innovation is increasingly prominent as leading companies in the industry enhance their R&D investments, driven by improvements in agricultural technology and the increasing penetration of digital and intelligent technologies in fertilization processes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Food security is a national priority, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) plays a crucial role in ensuring the supply of agricultural fertilizers to support food production and rural development [1][2]. Group 1: Supervision and Management - The CNOOC disciplinary inspection team has implemented a targeted supervision mechanism to identify and rectify 21 issues related to fertilizer safety production, raw material procurement, and pricing management [2]. - During the peak fertilizer application period, CNOOC's chemical production units maintained stable production despite adverse weather conditions caused by Typhoon "Biparjoy" [1][2]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology - The focus on the development and technological upgrade of value-added fertilizer products is a priority for CNOOC, with ongoing supervision of key project phases to ensure alignment with regional agricultural needs [3]. - CNOOC has emphasized the importance of scientific formulation and optimization of fertilizer products based on crop and regional characteristics, enhancing production efficiency and market supply [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 12.30 based on a 11.5x PE for FY26 [3][12]. Core Insights - The phosphate mine project at Leibo Base is expected to enhance the company's self-sufficiency rate and reduce dependence on external procurement [4][14]. - The Yingcheng project in Hubei is progressing well, laying a solid foundation for future production capacity release [4][14]. - Phosphate ore prices are anticipated to remain firm due to tight supply and increasing demand from agricultural and new energy sectors [4][14]. - The company's new energy materials business is an extension of its phosphoric acid utilization chain, providing cost and product advantages [4][14]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 987 million, RMB 1.294 billion, and RMB 1.442 billion for 2025-2027, respectively [3][12]. - Total revenue is expected to grow from RMB 20.381 billion in 2024 to RMB 27.148 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][8]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 4.0% in 2024 to 5.4% in 2027 [8]. Project Developments - The Leibo phosphate mine project includes significant infrastructure developments, with ongoing construction of essential facilities [4][14]. - The Yingcheng project encompasses multiple production lines, including synthetic ammonia and various fertilizers, with construction progressing smoothly [4][14]. Market Dynamics - The supply of phosphate ore is constrained by long construction cycles and stricter environmental regulations, supporting price stability [4][14]. - Demand for phosphate ore is driven by its applications in fertilizers and the growing new energy sector, particularly for lithium battery materials [4][14].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The election of Japan's new Prime Minister, Takashi Asao, is expected to maintain a fiscal easing approach, although political capital may limit future policy actions [2] - Recent macro risks include global trade tensions, credit events in the US, and geopolitical changes, which have increased market volatility [2] - Gold is highlighted as a quality asset that can hedge against multiple macro risks, with a long-term upward trend expected despite short-term fluctuations [2] Group 2: Precious Metals - Following a significant drop in gold prices, the long-term investment logic for gold remains intact, presenting a buying opportunity as prices stabilize [3] - Major gold companies are expected to achieve volume and price increases in 2026, with current valuations suggesting a favorable entry point [3] Group 3: Construction and Engineering - Shanghai's new action plan aims to promote high-quality development in the construction industry, focusing on demand stimulation, supply optimization, and transformation towards green, industrial, and digital practices [4] - Leading construction firms in Shanghai are expected to strengthen their competitive positions through integration and specialization, while smaller firms may find niche opportunities [4] Group 4: Power Equipment and New Energy - Sunshine Power is positioned as a leader in power electronics, with growth prospects driven by energy storage and international expansion, despite short-term policy uncertainties [5] - The company is expected to benefit from increasing global demand for energy storage solutions and the transition to renewable energy sources [5] Group 5: Fertilizer Industry - Hubei Yihua is projected to benefit from a recovery in domestic fertilizer demand and strong export profitability due to tight phosphate resource supply [6] - The company’s integrated supply chain, including upstream phosphate mining, enhances its competitive advantage in the fertilizer market [6] Group 6: Telecommunications - China Unicom's revenue and profit growth reflect improvements in operational efficiency and the acceleration of digital transformation initiatives [14] - The company is expected to leverage AI developments to enhance its cloud computing and data center services, driving future growth [14] Group 7: AI and Technology - Lian Te Technology is positioned to capitalize on the expanding light module market driven by AI advancements, with significant growth expected from 2024 onwards [7] - The company has established a strong customer base and is well-positioned to expand its market share in the overseas data communication sector [7] Group 8: Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Wens Foodstuff's profitability is expected to improve due to cost advantages in pig farming and a recovery in poultry farming profitability [17] - The company has announced a cash dividend distribution, reflecting its strong financial position despite recent profit declines [17] Group 9: Chemical Industry - China National Offshore Oil Corporation's chemical division is expected to benefit from stable natural gas costs and a favorable dividend yield, with growth prospects tied to domestic fertilizer market recovery [8] Group 10: Semiconductor and AI - Hanwha's revenue growth is driven by strong demand for AI chips, with expectations of continued growth in domestic procurement of computing power chips [28] - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for AI-related technologies and domestic chip procurement [28]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Crude oil, LPG, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, natural gas, asphalt [1][2][5] - Bearish rebound: L, PP [1] - Bearish consolidation: PVC, glass, soda ash [1][5] - Cautiously bearish: Methanol, urea [2] Core Views - The core driver of the oil price is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to move down. However, short - term geopolitical conflicts may cause the oil price to rebound [7]. - The prices of LPG, L, PP, PVC, and other products are mainly affected by cost support and supply - demand relationships. Most of them are in a state of supply surplus, and the prices are under pressure, but there may be short - term rebounds [1]. - PX and PTA have the expectation of supply - demand improvement, but the cost side is affected by the oil price, and the prices are expected to be volatile [1][29][32]. - Ethylene glycol has limited upward driving force due to increased supply and inventory accumulation, and is expected to be weak in the short term [35]. - Methanol and urea have weak fundamentals with high supply pressure and limited demand, but there may be some opportunities in the long - term [2][38]. - Natural gas demand is expected to pick up with the temperature drop, and the price may rise [5]. - Asphalt supply - demand is relatively loose, but short - term geopolitical factors may cause price fluctuations [5]. - Glass and soda ash are in a state of supply - demand surplus, and the prices are expected to be weak [5]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded slightly, with WTI rising 0.39%, Brent rising 0.51%, and SC falling 0.66% [6]. - **Basic logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts lead to a rebound in oil prices, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to move down [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, buy call options to control risks, and also buy put options. Pay attention to the range of SC [435 - 445] [9]. LPG - **Market performance**: On October 22, the PG main contract closed at 4130 yuan/ton, up 0.58% [12]. - **Basic logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - end crude oil. The cost end rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand side support declines [13]. - **Strategy**: Buy put options. Pay attention to the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [14]. L - **Market performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6874 yuan/ton (- 55) [17]. - **Basic logic**: Cost support improves, and there is a weak rebound. Supply continues to be loose, and the demand side has insufficient restocking power [18]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell at high prices. Short - term follow the cost rebound, short positions leave the market, and wait for the rebound to short. Pay attention to the range of L [6800 - 7000] [18]. PP - **Market performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6583 yuan/ton (+ 18) [22]. - **Basic logic**: Short - term cost support improves, following the weak rebound of the chemical sector. Supply - demand is weak, and there is high inventory - removal pressure in the future [23]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell at high prices. Short - term follow the cost rebound, reduce short positions, and wait for the rebound to short. Pay attention to the range of PP [6500 - 6700] [23]. PVC - **Market performance**: The V2601 closed at 4719 yuan/ton (+ 20) [26]. - **Basic logic**: Cost support improves, following the chemical sector rebound. Domestic demand is weak, and the sustainability of exports is questionable. Supply is loose [27]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand weakness is difficult to change. The absolute price is undervalued. Participate in the short - term rebound with a light position. Pay attention to the range of V [4600 - 4800] [27]. PX - **Market performance**: The prices of PX futures contracts declined [28]. - **Basic logic**: Supply - side devices have slightly reduced loads, and demand is expected to improve. PXN is not low this year, and the PX - MX spread is narrowing. The cost - end crude oil price rebounds in the short term [29]. - **Strategy**: The valuation is not high. Short positions should stop losses at low prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices in the future. Pay attention to the range of PX [6410 - 6490] [30]. PTA - **Market performance**: The prices of PTA futures contracts declined [31]. - **Basic logic**: Supply - side devices are under planned maintenance, and new devices are about to be put into production. Terminal demand shows slight improvement, but there is a large inventory - accumulation pressure from October to November [32]. - **Strategy**: The valuation and processing fees are not high. Short positions should stop losses at low prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices in the future. Pay attention to the range of TA [4450 - 4520] [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market performance**: The prices of ethylene glycol futures contracts declined [34]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic devices increase loads, and overseas devices slightly reduce loads. The arrival and import volume are still low compared to the same period. Supply increases, and inventory accumulates slightly [35]. - **Strategy**: Partially stop losses on short positions. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices during the rebound. Pay attention to the range of EG [4020 - 4100] [36]. Methanol - **Market performance**: The prices of methanol futures contracts declined [37]. - **Basic logic**: High inventory suppresses the spot price. The supply pressure is large, and the demand has no obvious positive factors. The cost support is weakly stable [38]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy long positions on the 01 contract at low prices [38]. Urea - **Market performance**: Shandong small - particle urea is weakly stable, and the basis slightly weakens [2]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to increase after the return of maintenance devices, and demand is weak at home and strong abroad. The inventory is accumulating [2]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. For the long - term, try to go long with a light position [2]. Natural Gas - **Market performance**: Not mentioned - **Basic logic**: Temperature drops, demand is expected to pick up, and the gas price rebounds. The supply is sufficient [5]. - **Strategy**: Not mentioned Asphalt - **Market performance**: Not mentioned - **Basic logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances, but the supply - demand fundamentals are relatively loose [5]. - **Strategy**: Partially stop losses on short positions [5] Glass - **Market performance**: Not mentioned - **Basic logic**: Domestic demand is weak, and supply is under pressure. The inventory in the factory increases after the festival [5]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand surplus continues. The absolute price is low. Short on the medium - term rebound [5] Soda Ash - **Market performance**: Not mentioned - **Basic logic**: The inventory in the factory accumulates after the festival, and supply is loose. The demand is mostly rigid [5]. - **Strategy**: The industry should hedge at high prices. Short on the long - term rebound. Hold the long position of the alkali - glass spread [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: UR01 - 05 short the spread when the price is high [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices are mainly stable, with a slight increase in the futures market and improved spot trading, but downstream procurement remains cautious [2] - In the medium - to long - term, urea supply and demand are still relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity [2] - With the improvement of weather, agricultural demand for urea increases. Northeast compound fertilizer plants will gradually start production in late October, and attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast [2] - Urea is still affected by export sentiment. September and October are export windows. In September, 1.37 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - contract basis, Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][8][13][16] 2. Urea Production - Figures cover urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [18][21] 3. Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures include production cost, spot production profit, futures production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization [25][26][27][28] 4. Urea Foreign Market Prices and Export Profits - Figures involve urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and futures export profit [30][35][38][41] 5. Urea Downstream Capacity Utilization and Orders - Figures include compound fertilizer capacity utilization, melamine capacity utilization, and urea enterprise advance order days [54][49] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures consist of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, Hebei urea downstream manufacturers' raw material inventory days, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume [52][55][60] Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On October 22, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,621 yuan/ton (+12). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,540 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,540 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1,540 yuan/ton (-10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 81 yuan/ton (-12), in Henan was - 81 yuan/ton (-12), and in Jiangsu was - 81 yuan/ton (-22). Urea production profit was 10 yuan/ton (unchanged), and export profit was 992 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of October 22, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.67% (+0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.6302 million tons (+14,800 tons), and the port sample inventory was 446,000 tons (+31,000 tons) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of October 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 24.18% (-1.32%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 55.18% (-10.29%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 7.41 days (+0.70) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - Urea is currently undervalued, but the upward driving force is temporarily limited. The current strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the situation of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has stabilized after falling to a near - five - year low, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. Short - term upward driving force is insufficient due to large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream purchases are cautious. Future possible driving forces include the renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quotas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On October 22, UR01 closed at 1621 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.75% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1691 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.54%; UR09 closed at 1725 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.35%. Domestic spot prices in most regions remained unchanged, except for Jiangsu, where it decreased by 10 yuan or 0.65% [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 9 yuan to - 151 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 3 yuan to - 70 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively. Downstream prices such as compound fertilizers (45%S), melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained unchanged [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1621 yuan/ton, with a high of 1625 yuan/ton, a low of 1610 yuan/ton, a close of 1621 yuan/ton, a settlement price of 1617 yuan/ton, and a position of 312,046 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options [1]