Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant surge on January 12, with over 4,100 stocks closing in the green and a record trading volume of 3.64 trillion yuan, surpassing the previous high on October 8, 2024. The adjustment of export tax rebate policies for batteries has influenced market dynamics, leading to a notable increase in trading activity for the Battery 50 ETF (159796), which closed down 0.69% despite a trading volume nearing 600 million yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Battery 50 ETF (159796) saw most of its constituent stocks decline, with notable drops including Sunshine Power and Xian Dao Intelligent, both down over 3%, while Ningde Times and Guoxuan High-Tech fell over 2% [3]. - The trading volume of the Battery 50 ETF (159796) surged to nearly 600 million yuan, indicating heightened investor interest despite the ETF's decline [1][3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - On January 9, two departments announced adjustments to export tax rebate policies, effective from April 1, 2026, which will reduce the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6%, and eliminate it entirely by January 1, 2027 [4][5]. - The previous reduction in export tax rebates for certain photovoltaic and battery products from 13% to 9% in November 2024 had already triggered a rush in exports, and the latest adjustments may lead to a similar surge, benefiting the lithium carbonate sector [5]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Global demand for energy storage is expected to grow steadily, with projections indicating that global energy storage installations will reach 404 GWh by 2026, representing a 38% year-on-year increase [5]. - The battery sector is experiencing a sustained upward trend, driven by the growth of the global electric vehicle market, with domestic battery installations expected to maintain high growth rates through 2026 [5][6]. - Solid-state battery technology is advancing, with potential for significant industry upgrades, as companies that can provide stable supply and mature processes are likely to benefit [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Battery 50 ETF (159796) is positioned to benefit from its high content in energy storage (18.7%) and solid-state batteries (45%), making it a strong candidate for investors looking to capitalize on these growing segments [7][9]. - The ETF's focus on battery chemicals, which account for 31% of its weight, positions it well to benefit from the recovery of upstream material prices, enhancing the overall industry outlook [9][12].

（来源：电池工业网） 本网讯 1月10日，合源锂创淮安固态电池制造基地投产仪式暨新产品发布交付仪式隆重举行，标志着固 态电池产业化进程迈出了坚实而关键的一步。 据介绍，合源锂创淮安制造基地作为全国首座纯粹量产固态电池的基地，已于2025年Q4正式投入使 用，该基地集研发、生产、测试于一体，致力于实现高性能、高安全固态电池的规模化稳定交付。 合源锂创新能源科技有限公司是一家聚焦固态锂离子电池产品研发、生产及销售的科技创新型企业，目 前建有苏州、淮安两大产业基地。其中，苏州基地主要承担固态电池技术研发、中试生产等工作，淮安 基地则专注于固态电池的规模化生产。 2023年12月，合源锂创与淮安区政府就固态电池10GWh智慧工厂项目合作完成签约；2024年2月，合源 锂创固态电池10GWh智慧工厂在淮安区开工建设；同年12月，公司首期固态电池智慧量产基地封顶仪 式在江苏淮安市淮安区举办。 该项目总投资约50亿元，总用地面积400亩，分三期建设10GWh固态电池生产线。其中，首期1GWh生 产线的建设投资5亿元，二期将在一期基础上再增加2GWh的产能，预计总年产值可达30亿元；第三期 建设将进一步扩展至7GWh的产线， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is involved in a legal case regarding a fire incident at its Shenzhen warehouse, which was determined to be caused by lithium batteries from Zhuhai Guanyu Battery Co., Ltd, leading to a claim for compensation of RMB 64.5264 million [1] Group 1: Incident Details - The fire occurred in December 2015 at the Shenzhen warehouse of the company [1] - The fire was caused by lithium batteries stored at the identified fire point, which were determined to be from Zhuhai Guanyu Battery Co., Ltd [1] - The court ruling has assigned 30% of the responsibility for the damages to Zhuhai Guanyu [1] Group 2: Legal Actions - The company's subsidiary, Shenzhen Xinning Modern Logistics Co., Ltd, has filed a lawsuit against Zhuhai Guanyu in the People's Court of Pingshan District, Shenzhen [1] - The lawsuit seeks compensation for losses amounting to RMB 64.5264 million, along with interest [1] - The case has been accepted by the court, but the hearing has not yet taken place, leaving the impact on the company's current or future profits uncertain [1]

新宁物流公告，子公司深圳新宁作为原告起诉珠海冠宇电池股份有限公司财产损害赔偿纠纷一案已获受 理。深圳新宁请求判令珠海冠宇赔偿因火灾事故造成的损失人民币6452.64万元及其利息196.7万元，并 承担案件受理费。2015年12月，深圳新宁仓库发生火灾，因存放的被告锂电池自燃导致火灾，被告应承 担30%的责任。 ...

Market Overview - In December, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by less than expected, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%[9] - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, driven by the latest employment report, indicating a "low hiring, low layoffs" state in the labor market[9] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,232, up 0.32% for the day, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.92%[3] Sector Performance - Gold stocks surged, with Shandong Gold rising over 6% and Zhaojin Mining up more than 4%, as spot gold prices exceeded $4,470 per ounce[9] - AI-related stocks performed strongly, with MINIMAX-WP listing and gaining 109% on its debut, and iFlytek Medical Technology rising 20.58%[9] - Solar stocks declined, with New Energy Technology dropping over 8% amid regulatory concerns regarding industry monopolies[9] Economic Indicators - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 5% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the next meeting, down from 11% the previous day, with expectations for at least two cuts this year[9] - Japan's household spending rose by 2.9% year-on-year in November, exceeding market expectations of 0.9%[13] Company Highlights - Nvidia saw a slight decline of 0.1%, while Intel surged by 10.8%, marking its largest single-day gain since September[10] - Fast Retailing, the parent company of Uniqlo, reported a 34% increase in operating profit, leading to a nearly 11% rise in its stock price[13]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant rise on January 12, driven by improved policy expectations, macroeconomic data, and favorable liquidity conditions, with the technology sector leading the gains, indicating a structural characteristic of the market [2][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.09%, marking a 17-day consecutive rise and reaching a new high not seen in over a decade [4]. - The total trading volume in the A-share market exceeded 3.6 trillion yuan, setting a new historical record [6]. - Over 4,100 stocks in the A-share market saw an increase, with notable gains in sectors such as AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, retail, and semiconductors [6][9]. Group 2: Driving Factors - **Policy Expectations**: The beginning of the year saw favorable economic investment and demand signals, with the National Development and Reform Commission issuing early project lists totaling approximately 295 billion yuan, which is 95 billion yuan more than the previous year [10]. - **Macroeconomic Data Improvement**: The manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 50.10%, indicating a return to expansion for the first time since April, driven by synchronized recovery in production and demand [11]. - **Liquidity Improvement**: External factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and a strong yuan have encouraged foreign investment in Chinese assets. Internally, adjustments in risk factors for insurance funds and reforms in public offerings have strengthened the momentum for new capital entering the market [12]. Group 3: Sector Focus - The technology sector is expected to continue leading the market, supported by long-term confidence in the development of innovative industries, particularly in AI [9]. - Investment strategies should focus on high-cost performance sectors, including gaming, duty-free, batteries, engineering machinery, and agricultural chemicals, while also considering cyclical sectors like steel structures and infrastructure [12].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of the battery export tax rebate is expected to boost exports in 2026 and optimize the industry structure, benefiting companies with overseas production capacity [1][2] - The reduction in export tax rates aims to curb low-price competition in the export market and promote the exit of outdated production capacity [2][3] - The battery export tax rebate will lead to two rounds of export rush before the end of 2026, tightening supply and demand across the lithium battery supply chain [3][4] Summary by Sections Export Tax Rebate Adjustment - The export tax rebate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and will be eliminated entirely from January 1, 2027 [1] - This policy is expected to drive a surge in battery exports in 2026, intensifying supply-demand tensions in lithium mining and lithium hexafluorophosphate [1][2] Supply Chain Impact - The reduction in export tax is anticipated to tighten the supply-demand balance in the lithium battery industry, with major lithium material utilization rates projected at 92% for lithium hexafluorophosphate and 81% for copper foil in 2026 [3] - The ongoing demand for energy storage and the increasing sales of new energy vehicles in Europe are expected to further support this tightening [3] Recommendations - Companies with established overseas production capacity, such as CATL and Yiwei Lithium Energy, are recommended for investment [1][4] - Other companies in the supply chain, including Tianqi Lithium, New Chemical Materials, and Shangtai Technology, are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the tightening supply-demand dynamics [4]

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant surge, with a trading volume exceeding 3.6 trillion yuan, setting a historical record [4][5]. - The average daily trading volume for A-shares last week was 2.8 trillion yuan, which dramatically increased to 3.5 trillion yuan today, surpassing the previous high from October 8 of last year [5][6]. - The current trading volume in the A-share market has outpaced that of the U.S. stock market, which had an average daily trading volume of approximately 3.4 trillion yuan in the first half of last year [6]. Sector Highlights - The commercial aerospace sector continues to thrive, with two indices hitting the daily limit up, particularly in AI application-related media and commercial aerospace satellites [9]. - A total of 44 ETFs in the market surged over 9% today, indicating a strong performance across various sectors [9]. - The proportion of trading volume in the commercial aerospace sector increased from just over 15% to 23.6% since December 22, although it saw a slight decline today due to many stocks hitting their upper limit [12]. AI Applications - The media ETF related to AI applications saw significant gains, driven by the recent listings of MiniMax and Zhizhu in the Hong Kong market, with the former rising over 30% and the latter over 60% [16][18]. - The concept of Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) is emerging as a new trend in digital marketing, potentially leading to higher advertising revenues due to more precise targeting compared to traditional Search Engine Optimization (SEO) [21][22]. - The performance of companies like Zhihu, which has seen a decline in stock price post-ChatGPT rise, illustrates the competitive landscape in AI applications, where stronger players are likely to dominate [23][25]. Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing rapid structural differentiation, with notable volatility in stock performances, particularly among AI hardware and battery giants, which are currently underperforming [31]. - Sinopec, after a brief surge due to restructuring news, has seen a decline of 10% from its peak, highlighting the unpredictable nature of market reactions [33]. - Gold prices have reached a historic high, surpassing $4,600, reflecting broader trends in global equity and commodity markets amid ongoing interest rate expectations [35][38].

本次退税政策正式生放时间为4月,预计海外抢运需求将对一季度产业链接产及价格形成较好支撑,全年来看均存在拾出口预期。中长期 看,在价格传导过程中,议价能力更强的头部企业或将扩大海外市场份额,缺乏竞争力的产能将面临淘汰出清,预计近期碳酸锂价格偏强运 行。 为避免企业在国内外重复缴税、提振产品国际竞争力，中国自1985年开始实施出口退税政策。本次逐步取消出口政策旨在破除行业低价竞 争,走向反内卷,同时也是对国内相关企业成本及技术方面国际竞争力信心的体现。 研究员:王琛 从业资格 F0276812 交易咨询:Z0021310 联系方式:wangchen@greendh.com 市场快讯-电池产品出口退税逐步取消,抢出口预期带动碳酸锂上涨 > 碳酸锂 2026年1月12日 1月9日财政部和税务总局公告、自2026年4月1日起、取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。 2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31日，将电池产品的组值税出口退税率由 9%下滑至69%;2027年1月1日起，取消自池产品增值税出口退税。此前改策动态，2024年12月1日起，光伏產片、电池片、组件出口退税率已向13%下明至9%，市场对 本轮出口退税取消有一 ...

Policy - From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% [2] - Starting January 1, 2027, the export tax rebate for battery products will be completely canceled [2] Commentary - The previous tax rate was adjusted from 13% to 9%, and overseas demand was not impacted, indicating that batteries and downstream sectors share the tax rebate burden in a 3:7 ratio, highlighting the rising global competitiveness of domestic lithium batteries and the government's determination to combat internal competition while exporting inflation [3] - The policy clearly states that the tax rebate will be fully canceled in 2027, which is significant; in 2026, companies will likely rush to export, validating the underlying logic of leading battery manufacturers continuously revising their annual production expectations upward [3]