[Table_Page] 投资策略报告|电力设备 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 锂电行业 2026 年投资策略 储能需求驱动周期反转，电池和材料迎来新机遇 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-12-15 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]陈子坤 SAC 执证号：S0260513080001 010-59136690 chenzikun@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈昕 SAC 执证号：S0260522080008 SFC CE No. BWV823 010-59136699 gfchenxin@gf.com.cn 分析师： 黄思悦 SAC 执证号：S0260525070002 0755-23608197 huangsiyue@gf.com.cn -20% -6% 8% 22% 36% 50% 12/24 02/25 05/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 电力设备 沪深300 请注意，陈子坤,黄思悦并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员 会的注册持牌人，不可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is entering a new cyclical growth phase in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological iterations, leading to a "spiral rise" in both volume and price [3]. Group 1: Market Forecast and Demand - By 2025, global lithium battery production is expected to reach 2250 GWh, with a growth rate of 30% in 2026. The energy storage sector is projected to grow even faster at 48.3%, driven by both domestic and international demand [5]. - There is a significant supply gap in battery cells and various materials, necessitating a focus on ensuring a stable and efficient supply chain to capitalize on this growth opportunity [5]. Group 2: Conference Overview - The 2026 Lithium Key Materials and Applications Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The conference will focus on three core topics: 1. In-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics [5]. 2. Announcement and award ceremony for the "Top Ten Lithium Material Brands of 2025," evaluated based on shipment volume, market share, and customer reputation [6]. 3. B to B targeted procurement matching, involving top global battery companies and material suppliers to enhance resource matching and reduce procurement costs [7]. Group 3: Conference Agenda - The agenda includes various topics such as the analysis of lithium carbonate fundamentals and supply-demand outlook, advancements in solid-state battery key electrolyte materials, and the development of high-performance in-situ polymerized electrolytes [9][10]. - Discussions will also cover the development of lithium iron phosphate materials for large-capacity energy storage batteries and the impact of different technological routes on downstream application markets [10].

锂电产业链价格下行趋势有望反转，固态电池产业化提速。锂电产业链经历几年下行期后，2026年多数 产品价格、盈利有望显著回暖。新技术方面，钢壳电池、硅负极、储能大电芯均有望在2026年实现批量 供应；固态电池技术产业化处于加速阶段，有望在2026年实现产线规模扩大以及装车测试增加，为 2027-2030年的批量化应用奠定基础。建议关注【宁德时代】、【亿纬锂能】、【中创新航】、【珠海 冠宇】、【天赐材料】、【恩捷股份】、【当升科技】、【厦钨新能】。 风电主机厂盈利能力修复，出口贡献业绩增长。2026年国内风电新增装机有望保持10%-20%增长，订单 饱和价格具有良好支撑。主机盈利逐季提高，出口放量提振业绩，国内外呈现景气共振态势。零部件在 2026年有望实现"量增价稳"，长期成长性值得期待。在海风装机、招标同比显著增长背景下，海缆和管 桩环节企业有望迎来订单和业绩共振。重点关注主机、零部件和海风龙头企业，包括【金风科技】、 【三一重能】、【时代新材】、【大金重工】、【东方电缆】、【海力风电】、【德力佳】。 光伏供给侧调整持续，无银化浆料、钙钛矿等新技术值得关注。在"反内卷"政策推动下供需改善推动盈 利筑底，硅料盈 ...

活动名称： 2025（第十届）起点锂电行业年会暨锂电金鼎奖颁奖典礼&起点研究十周年庆典 、2025起点用户侧储能及电池技术论坛 活动主题： 新周期 新技术 新生态 活动时间： 2025年12月18-19日 活动地址： 深圳市维纳斯皇家酒店（深圳国际会展中心京基百纳店）三楼维纳斯厅（深圳市宝安区沙井镇沙井路118号） 主办单位： 起点锂电、起点储能、起点研究院 SPIR 专场冠名： 逸飞激光 合影墙独家冠名： 蓝京新能源 签到墙独家冠名： 小鲁锂电 椅背贴独家冠名： 奥鸿智能 矿泉水独家冠名： 派能科技 活动赞助及演讲单位： 惠州潼湖生态智慧区管理委员会/逸飞激光/小鲁锂电/派能科技/莫洛奇/融捷能源/远东电池/诺达智慧/奥鸿智能/中天和/超业精密/北 测新能源/蓝京新能源/贤辰智享/东唐智能/达力智能/亿鑫丰/爱签/和明机械/金力股份/孚悦科技/乾纳智能装备/多氟多/科迈罗/三合一体/果曼钠电/新能安/ 海辰储能/瑞浦兰钧/鹏辉能源/国轩吉泰美/创明新能源/德赛电池/先导智能/亿纬锂能/移族/新日股份/弘正储能/亮见钠电/易事特/清陶云能/信宇人/星恒电 源/昆仑化学/星翼能源 /汇创新能源 等 起点研究十周 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the paradox of China's trade surplus, which reached a historic high of $1.08 trillion in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating a strong export performance but underlying issues in domestic consumption [1][5] - It emphasizes that a large trade surplus does not necessarily equate to a strong economy, as it may reflect an inability to consume domestically, leading to over-reliance on exports [1][5] Trade Surplus Analysis - China's trade surplus is calculated as the difference between exports and imports, with exports growing by approximately 5.9% in 2025 while imports remained stagnant or even declined in some months [1][5] - The significant surplus is attributed to low domestic consumption, as consumers are hesitant to spend on housing and vehicles, causing companies to focus on exporting excess production [1][5] Export Dynamics - The export of photovoltaic components has surged in quantity, but the total export value growth has not kept pace, with some months showing a decline in monetary value due to drastic price reductions [3][4] - Companies are resorting to "price for volume" strategies to maintain cash flow and market share, resulting in thin profit margins that hinder wage increases for workers [4] Domestic Consumption Challenges - The decline in the real estate sector has severely impacted consumer confidence and spending, as many individuals have their wealth tied up in property, leading to a defensive saving mentality [5] - Despite nominal growth in disposable income of about 5.3% in 2025, the faster growth in savings indicates a reluctance to spend, driven by fears of economic instability [5] Policy Recommendations - The article suggests several policy measures to stimulate domestic demand, including capacity reduction, urbanization initiatives, and targeted fiscal policies to alleviate the financial burden on citizens [5] - It advocates for a shift in investment focus from real estate to diversified asset allocation, emphasizing the importance of investing in cities with net population inflows [5] Future Economic Outlook - The article predicts a prolonged low-interest-rate environment globally, influenced by economic downturns and rising debt levels, which will create volatility in capital markets [5] - Investors are advised to maintain a diversified portfolio that includes high-dividend stocks and growth sectors, while also preparing for potential market uncertainties [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic policies and structural adjustments in China, focusing on the implications for various industries, particularly emerging sectors like technology and AI. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Macroeconomic Policy Direction**: The central economic work conference indicates a shift towards structural adjustments in macroeconomic policy, maintaining a fiscal deficit rate of 4% and a slight increase in the broad deficit, emphasizing service consumption [5][1][2]. 2. **Balance of New and Old Drivers**: The conference highlights the importance of balancing new and old economic drivers, with a focus on accelerating the transition between industries, expected to complete between 2027 and 2031 [2][3]. 3. **Structural Bull Market in Capital Markets**: The capital market is expected to continue a structural bull market, with technology innovation leading the A-share market. Investors are advised to focus on technology sectors and emerging industries to seize structural opportunities [6][1][3]. 4. **Debt Market Outlook**: The bond market may face a steepening yield curve, with long-term bonds under pressure. Attention should be paid to nominal GDP and price factors to reflect real supply-demand relationships [7][1][5]. 5. **Support for Emerging Industries**: The 2025 policy direction emphasizes active fiscal policies and support for domestic demand, technology innovation, and small and medium enterprises, with a focus on new quality productivity [8][1][3]. 6. **Historical Performance of Emerging Industries**: Emerging industries have historically performed well in the A-share market, with significant market capitalization growth driven by policy support during various economic waves [9][10]. 7. **Focus on AI and High-End Manufacturing**: Key emerging sectors to watch include AI applications, high-end manufacturing, and renewable energy, which are expected to show signs of price recovery and profit improvement [11][1][3]. 8. **Impact of Anti-Overwork Policies**: The anti-overwork policies are expected to significantly influence future economic performance and asset allocation, with a potential shift in PPI expected by mid-2026 [12][1][3]. 9. **Investment Opportunities in A-Share Market**: The current A-share market is characterized by a structural bull market, with new production industries like AI and high-end manufacturing presenting investment opportunities [13][1][3]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Challenges in Capacity Reduction**: The process of capacity reduction faces challenges such as insufficient downstream demand and inconsistent enforcement of administrative standards across regions [18][1][3]. 2. **Future Development of Anti-Overwork Policies**: The anti-overwork policy is seen as a critical economic strategy, with potential for further administrative intervention if current measures do not yield desired results [19][1][3]. 3. **Industry Self-Regulation in the Photovoltaic Sector**: A self-regulation agreement in the photovoltaic industry quickly collapsed due to lack of enforcement power, highlighting the challenges of maintaining industry standards [14][1][3].

锂电产业链周期复盘梳理 20251214 摘要 当前锂电板块估值相对较低，多数企业明年涨价后估值在 20 倍左右， 六氟磷酸锂约为 10 倍，固态电池产业化预期抑制投资，但可能助力产 业发展，明年 3 月行业基本面或有较大变化，短期调整或是买入机会。 本轮碳酸锂周期与上一轮相比，未经历供给持续出清，期货工具加剧价 格波动，需求端驱动因素来自储能，但碳酸锂供需极易扭转，新资源开 发抬升成本底部中枢至 6 万元以上，大型公司资本开支强度大，小型公 司更易达成目标。 和电子厂在 20-30 万左右锁定了较高比例的长单。这一轮龙头公司签订锁价长 单的概率不大。 铁锂加工费在 2021 年一季度开始持续上涨，一直持续到 2022 年一季度，大约一年多时间窗口内出现明显加速。这主要由于行业景气 度提升及上游磷酸铁价格上涨所致。从企业盈利来看，21 年四季度和 22 年一 季度是铁锂盈利上行最快阶段。本轮铁锂基本面紧张且盈利分位较低，有强烈 的涨价和传导成本诉求。明年的预期是铁锂上游磷酸铁价格传导及资源品价格 上涨带来弹性。 负极材料方面，在 21 年前石墨化略有上涨，但幅度不明显， 下半年开始加速并持续到 23 年高位。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，储能加持，26年锂电行业需求32%增长，且27年仍可维持 20%以上，供需格局将明显改善，各环节价格合理恢复可期。且当前主流公司26年估值不足20x，继续 强推格局和盈利稳定龙头电池公司、以及具备涨价弹性和优质锂电材料龙头;同时碳酸锂价格已见底， 看好具备优质资源龙头。新技术方面，固态产业化加速。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 产业链淡季不淡，涨价持续性可期，盈利弹性较大 储能电池供不应求，12月排产环比持平略增，明年一季度淡季不淡，预计环比仅个位数下降，龙头指引 环比持平，需求持续超预期，锂电产业供需反转。电池端，储能需求超预期，26年行业产能利用率维持 90%，价格已上涨1-3分/wh，预计后续碳酸锂及材料成本上涨预计可顺利传导;材料方面，6F和VC价格 已大幅超预期上涨，6F年内散单预计20万，铁锂、负极、隔膜、铝箔等散单价格已涨，大客户长协年 底谈判，该行预计26年陆续落地，盈利合理恢复。 固态电池技术聚焦硫化物，产业化加速，电解质及核心设备受益，并关注固态新技术迭代 产业进展稳步推进，25年底前小试完毕+车规级电芯下线，26年百Mwh中试线优化+样车路试，27年小 ...

Group 1: Price Trends in Lithium Iron Phosphate Industry - The lithium iron phosphate industry is experiencing a wave of price increases, with leading manufacturers issuing clear price hike notifications to customers [1] - A major manufacturer has announced that from 2026, the processing fees for all lithium iron phosphate products will be uniformly raised [1] - Industry insiders indicate that price increases have already been implemented for some customers, while others are still in negotiations, suggesting that price hikes are becoming a prevailing trend [1] Group 2: Battery Production and Demand - In November, domestic power battery installation reached 93.5 GWh, marking a month-on-month increase of 11.2% and a year-on-year increase of 39.2% [2] - Lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 75.3 GWh of the total, representing 80.5% of the total installation, with a month-on-month increase of 11.6% and a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [2] - Cumulatively, from January to November, domestic power battery installations reached 671.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.0% [2] Group 3: Future Demand Projections - The chairman of Tianqi Lithium stated that global lithium demand is expected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, indicating a near balance between supply and demand [3] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman predicts a 30% increase in lithium demand by 2026, potentially reaching 1.9 million tons, with supply capacity expected to grow by around 250,000 tons [3] - If demand growth exceeds 30%, prices may rise significantly, potentially surpassing 150,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Lithium Industry - CITIC Construction Investment emphasizes the importance of resource self-sufficiency and low-cost quality resources for future growth in the lithium industry [4] - The report suggests that companies with high resource self-sufficiency can maintain stable raw material supply and high margins, reducing risks associated with low-margin processing [4] - The expectation of continued upward adjustments in energy storage demand is likely to improve the supply-demand balance in the lithium market [4] Group 5: Company Developments - Tianqi Lithium is expanding its metal lithium production capacity, with 600 tons currently and an additional 1,000 tons under construction, positioning itself as the second-largest globally [5] - Ganfeng Lithium has achieved large-scale production of energy storage cells and established stable supply partnerships with leading companies, ensuring delivery stability amid rising storage demand [5] - CATL, a leader in solid-state battery technology, has achieved mass production of its semi-solid state batteries, contributing significant revenue, while also advancing solid-state battery research [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight supply - demand balance and will mainly fluctuate at a high level. The main contract of lithium carbonate will maintain a wide - range fluctuating trend in the short term. Wait for the opportunity to go long after the price stabilizes [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Overview - China's November CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, 0.5 percentage points higher than last month, the highest since March 2024; PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month. November exports in US dollars were 330.3 billion, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. Imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year. The M2 balance in November was 336.99 trillion yuan, an 8.0% year - on - year increase, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The stock of social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, an 8.5% year - on - year increase, 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.50% and 3.75% [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - This week, the weekly output of lithium carbonate continued to increase, remaining above 24,000 tons and reaching a new high this year. The average industry operating rate rebounded to over 52%. There are still uncertainties about the resumption of production of leading large - scale manufacturers. Attention should be paid to the arrival volume of overseas lithium mines. As of December 12, the output of lithium carbonate was 24,065 tons, a week - on - week increase of 170 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 52.85%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38% [3][11]. 3.3 Demand Side - From December 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 297,000, a 32% year - on - year decrease and an 8% decrease compared to the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 21.781 million, a 5% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume was 298,000, a 40% year - on - year decrease and an 18% decrease compared to the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 27.063 million, a 10% year - on - year increase. The sales of new - energy vehicles at the beginning of December were lower than expected, while the orders for energy - storage projects at home and abroad were strong. Overall, the production schedule of downstream material manufacturers increased slightly month - on - month, still supporting the demand for lithium carbonate [3][5]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the prices of mining ends increased. The African SC 5% was quoted at $900 per ton, a $30 per - ton increase compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $1,215 per ton, a $55 per - ton increase compared to last week; the market price of lepidolite was 3,585 yuan per ton, the same as last week. The production cost of lithium carbonate was 80,088 yuan per ton, a 518 - yuan increase compared to last week, and the industry profit was 12,962 yuan per ton, a 303 - yuan decrease compared to last week [4]. 3.5 Total Inventory - As of December 11, the total inventory was 111,469 tons, a 2,133 - ton decrease compared to last week. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 19,161 tons, a 1,606 - ton decrease compared to last week [4]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The basis between futures and spot quotes remained stable this week. The discount range of the main contract of electric - grade lithium carbonate was concentrated between 1,500 and 2,500 yuan, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate maintained a large discount. Lithium salt factories mainly executed long - term contracts, and the shipment of spot orders was limited. In the short term, the main contract will maintain a wide - range fluctuating trend. The domestic output remains high and is expected to continue to grow with the arrival of overseas lithium mines. The overseas supply pressure has eased. Although the sales of new - energy vehicles at the beginning of December were lower than expected, the overall demand from downstream material manufacturers still supported the price [5]. 3.7 Price List of the Lithium - Battery Industry - As of December 12, the prices of some products increased, such as 6% spodumene CIF at $1,215 per ton, a 4.74% increase compared to last week; African SC 5% at $900 per ton, a 3.45% increase compared to last week; battery - grade lithium carbonate at 95,000 yuan per ton, a 3.26% increase compared to last week. Some product prices remained unchanged, such as lepidolite at 3,585 yuan per ton, and metal lithium at 610,000 yuan per ton [7]. 3.8 This Week's Market Review - As of December 12, LC2605 closed at 97,720 yuan per ton, a 6% increase compared to last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 95,000 yuan per ton, a 3.3% increase compared to last week. The main contract increased significantly this week, approaching the previous high. According to the supply - demand balance sheet, lithium carbonate will continue the de - stocking trend in December, and the price will remain high [9]. 3.9 Production of Related Products - As of December 12, the production of lithium carbonate was 24,065 tons, a week - on - week increase of 170 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 52.85%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The production of lithium hydroxide was 6,350 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 36.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. The production of lithium iron phosphate was 103,322 tons, a week - on - week increase of 800 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 90.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.7% [11][13][16]. 3.10 Inventory of Related Products - As of December 11, the total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry was 111,469 tons, a 2,133 - ton decrease compared to last week. The inventory of upstream smelters continued to decline to a historical low. As of December 12, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 39,136 tons, a 134 - ton decrease compared to last week [34][38]. 3.11 Cost Side - As of December 12, the African SC 5% was quoted at $900 per ton, a $30 per - ton increase compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $1,215 per ton, a $55 per - ton increase compared to last week; the market price of lepidolite was 3,585 yuan per ton, the same as last week. The production cost of lithium carbonate was 80,088 yuan per ton, a 518 - yuan increase compared to last week, and the industry profit was 12,962 yuan per ton, a 303 - yuan decrease compared to last week [51][54].