Core Viewpoint - Changfei Fiber's stock price has dropped over 40% from its September high, reflecting market concerns about declining market share and average selling prices due to recent fiber optic tender results from China Mobile [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Changfei Fiber's stock fell by 4.33%, trading at 38.88 HKD, with a trading volume of 582 million HKD [1] - The stock reached a low of 38.5 HKD, down from a high of 65 HKD in September [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Nomura's recent report indicates that Changfei Fiber's market share and average selling prices have declined, which may pressure profitability starting from Q3 of this year [1] - Nomura has downgraded its rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" and raised the target price from 18.6 HKD to 52 HKD, suggesting that the stock price has already factored in the positive aspects of AI business expansion [1] Group 3: Shareholder Activity - Draka Comteq B.V. sold 37.5953 million H-shares of Changfei Fiber through block trading, reducing its stake by 5% [1] - Following the sale, Draka Comteq B.V. no longer holds any H-shares, while it and China Huaxin Postal Technology Co., Ltd. were the largest shareholders with a 23.73% stake each as of the end of March [1] - From April 17 to September 19, Draka Comteq B.V. has cumulatively reduced its holdings by nearly 180 million shares, representing 23.73% of the total share capital [1]

Core Viewpoint - The optical communication sector is expected to continue delivering strong performance due to sustained high demand in both domestic and overseas markets, with an expanding industry chain prosperity trend anticipated [1] Group 1: Optical Communication Sector - The optical communication sector is projected to maintain high growth in performance driven by ongoing demand in both domestic and international markets [1] - The industry chain's prosperity is expected to continue expanding [1] Group 2: IDC Sector - The IDC sector is likely to experience a turning point due to the growth in demand for intelligent computing centers both domestically and internationally [1] Group 3: Copper Connection Sector - The copper connection sector's performance is expected to gradually improve as production capacity is released [1] Group 4: Fiber Optic Cable Sector - The prosperity of the fiber optic cable sector is anticipated to gradually recover [1]

Group 1 - Wuhan's enterprises have significantly increased their participation in the formulation and revision of international standards, ranking among the top in China for sub-provincial cities, indicating a new level of standard innovation capability and supply [1] - China Information Communication Technologies Group has led the development of over 700 international, national, and industry standards, showcasing its role in setting high standards in the global communication sector [1][2] - Wuhan Shipbuilding Machinery Co., Ltd. has established international standards for marine engineering equipment, breaking international monopolies and securing contracts worth over 8 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][3] Group 2 - Changfei Optical Fiber and Cable Co., Ltd. has transitioned from "using standards" to "setting standards," with over 10 experts actively involved in international standard organizations [2] - Wuhan Zhongke Innovation Technology Co., Ltd. has participated in nearly 100 non-destructive testing standards, establishing itself as a benchmark in the industry and expanding its overseas market presence [2][3] - Wuhan Yuanda Hongyuan Co., Ltd. has led the formulation of multiple industry standards in the amino acid sector, achieving significant sales growth and establishing partnerships with major companies [3]

Group 1 - Wuhan enterprises have led or participated in the formulation and revision of over 6,400 national and industry standards, marking a significant increase and positioning the city among the top in China for standard innovation capability [1][2] - China Information Communication Technologies Group has established itself as a benchmark in the global communication sector, leading the development of over 700 international, national, and industry standards, including the first practical optical fiber meeting international standards [2] - Changfei Fiber Optic Cable Co., Ltd. has transitioned from "using standards" to "setting standards," with over 10 experts actively involved in international organizations like IEC and ITU, contributing to multiple international standards [2] Group 2 - Wuhan Ship Machinery Co., Ltd. has developed key marine engineering equipment that breaks international monopolies, leading to the establishment of international standards for offshore platform lifting devices, resulting in contracts for 19 ships/platforms worth over 8 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] - Wuhan Zhongke Innovation Technology Co., Ltd. has participated in the formulation of nearly 100 non-destructive testing standards, with 69 officially published, establishing itself as a benchmark in China's ultrasonic non-destructive testing industry [3] - Wuhan Yuanda Hongyuan Co., Ltd. has led the development of multiple industry standards since 2009, achieving significant sales growth and establishing partnerships with major companies, with expectations for exponential market growth in the next 3-5 years [3]

Core Viewpoint - Changfei Fiber Optics has seen a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 30% from its September peak of 65 HKD, with a current price of 45.06 HKD, reflecting market concerns about its future profitability [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock of Changfei Fiber Optics (601869) and its subsidiary Changxin Bochuang (300548) has experienced a drop of over 4%, with a trading volume of 6.76 billion HKD [1] - The current stock price is reported at 45.06 HKD, down 3.92% at the time of reporting [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Nomura's research indicates that the rise in Changfei's stock earlier this year was driven by market expectations of increased demand for high-end products like G.654E fiber and hollow fiber due to AI data centers [1] - The firm believes that the recent tender results from China Mobile show a decline in Changfei's market share and average selling price, which may pressure profitability starting from Q3 of this year [1] Group 3: Analyst Rating Changes - Nomura has downgraded its rating on Changfei from "Buy" to "Neutral," suggesting that the current stock price reflects the positive factors associated with AI business expansion [1] - The target price has been significantly adjusted from 18.6 HKD to 52 HKD, indicating a more cautious outlook despite the upward revision [1]

Core Viewpoint - Changfei Optical Fiber and Cable (06869) has seen a decline of over 30% from its September peak of 65 HKD, with a current price of 45.06 HKD, reflecting market concerns about its future profitability due to recent bidding results from China Mobile [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The stock has dropped over 4%, with a trading volume of 676 million HKD [1] - The current price is reported at 45.06 HKD, down 3.92% [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Nomura's report indicates that the rise in Changfei's stock earlier this year was driven by expectations of AI data centers adopting high-end products like G.654E and hollow fiber [1] - The report highlights a decline in market share and average selling prices for Changfei, as indicated by recent fiber optic bidding results from China Mobile, which may pressure profitability starting from Q3 of this year [1] - Nomura has downgraded its rating from "Buy" to "Neutral," while significantly raising the target price from 18.6 HKD to 52 HKD [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [9]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on improving its main business and expanding the application of new optical fiber technologies, driven by the growing demand from data centers and AI construction [4][6]. - Despite facing pressure in the telecom market, the company is seizing structural opportunities by expanding into new applications such as metropolitan area networks and direct connections for computing clusters [5]. - The company is making forward-looking investments in hollow-core optical fibers, which have the potential to become a core technology for next-generation optical networks [6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.384 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.71% to 296 million yuan [4]. - The company’s non-deductible net profit increased by 14.75% to 138 million yuan [4]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 14.193 billion yuan in 2025 to 18.008 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS increasing from 1.23 yuan to 2.04 yuan [7][11]. Market Dynamics - The demand for standard single-mode optical fibers in the telecom market is declining, leading to a decrease in average prices [5]. - The company won a significant share of a centralized procurement by China Mobile for G.654.E optical cables, amounting to 3.1386 million core kilometers, which is expected to boost business growth [5]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for optical fiber products driven by the expansion of data centers and advancements in AI technology [4][9]. - The hollow-core optical fiber technology is anticipated to be a game-changer, with the company making substantial progress in its research and commercialization [6].

智通财经APP获悉，长飞光纤光缆(06869)跌近5%，昨日尾盘曾拉升超10%，截至发稿，跌4.86%，报 49.76港元，成交额1.73亿港元。 另值得注意的是，9月19日，Draka Comteq B.V.通过大宗交易出售长飞光纤光缆3759.53万股H股，占总 股本5%，减持后H股数量为零。截至今年3月底，DrakaComteqB.V.和中国华信邮电科技有限公司并列长 飞光纤第一大股东，持股比例都是23.73%。4月17日至9月19日，Draka Comteq B.V.累计减持长飞光纤H 股近1.8亿股，占公司总股本的23.73%。 消息面上，野村发布研报称，公司的股价自2025年1月以来已上涨295%(同期恒生指数上涨36.9%)，主 要因为市场对人工智能资料中心(AIDC)、G.654E和空芯光纤(HCF)等高端产品的需求强劲。该行表示， 电信市场持续疲软，或会抵消该公司在AI基础设施市场的扩张。中国移动6月的光纤招标表明，市占率 下降和平均售价下降，可能会对长飞光纤光缆2025年第三季盈利造成压力。因此，该行将2025财年收入 及盈利预测下调1%及23%，但将2026-27财年收入和盈利预测分别上 ...

该行表示，电信市场持续疲软，或会抵消该公司在AI基础设施市场的扩张。中国移动(00941)6月的光纤 招标表明，市占率下降和平均售价下降，可能会对长飞光纤光缆2025年第三季盈利造成压力。因此，该 行将2025财年收入及盈利预测下调1%及23%，但将2026-27财年收入和盈利预测分别上调5-11%及1- 24%，以反映2026年AI基础设施需求增强。 智通财经APP获悉，野村发布研报称，将长飞光纤光缆(06869)目标价从18.6港元上调180%至52港元， 反映有9.9%的上涨空间，评级由"买入"下调至"中性"。公司的股价自2025年1月以来已上涨295%(同期 恒生指数上涨36.9%)，主要因为市场对人工智能资料中心(AIDC)、G.654E和空芯光纤(HCF)等高端产品 的需求强劲。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Changfei Fiber Optics (601869) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 10%, attributed to positive market sentiment regarding its growth potential driven by AI infrastructure development [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - As of the latest report, Changfei Fiber Optics' stock price rose by 10.1% to HKD 52.1, with a trading volume of HKD 4.32 billion [1] - The company is recognized as a global leader in the supply of optical fiber preform, optical fibers, optical cables, and integrated solutions, maintaining the largest market share since 2016 [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The market perceives limited growth potential for the company; however, there is optimism that AI computing infrastructure will drive a new growth phase [1] - In the optical transmission sector, products such as multimode optical fibers for data centers and G.654.E optical fibers for backbone networks are experiencing rapid growth, with the company leveraging its first-mover advantage [1] - The diversification strategy is expected to open new growth avenues, with subsidiaries like Changxin Bochuang (300548) and Changxin Sheng showing strong competitive advantages in MPO, AOC, and high-speed copper cable sectors, potentially accelerating overseas client acquisition [1]